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Introduction
The model presented in this, the third of three papers exploring the nature of the new social care
market, arose from work undertaken originally as part of a consultancy project commissioned a
medium sized social housing agency based in the Midlands, which we will call AHA. The author
was commissioned to project manage AHA’s entry into the domiciliary care sector (i.e. the supply
of personal care to older and vulnerable adults in non-institutional home settings) in late 2011.
Whilst the technicalities of managing government-regulated social care were established and
applicable, what was less clear was exactly how AHA should position its new business within
the local care market. This raised a number of generalisable questions:
How can a new entrant to the social care market prepare itself to compete most effectively with
existing suppliers?
What does it need to do to gain market presence, to ensure that it gains sufficient clients to achieve
financial viability as soon as possible?
It was clear that the applicability of well established theoretical models in evaluating and
Again, many thanks are due to
planning for social care market success needed consideration. The first of the papers
Robin Johnson for his support. in this trilogy outlined the peculiar nature of this new market for care, with a brief history of the
DOI 10.1108/HCS-12-2013-0025 VOL. 17 NO. 1 2014, pp. 5-15, C Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1460-8790 j HOUSING, CARE AND SUPPORT j PAGE 5
evolution and size of social care, and the development of the delivery framework known as
New Public Management.
The second developed a critique of existing market analysis models, including competitive
advantage and contingency theory, which in their original form at least seem less well suited to
the peculiar nature of this new approach. The second paper critically analysed the key
assumptions and limitations of existing theoretical perspectives in the context of the new social
care market, not only to evaluate existing models, but to consider how a new approach may be
optimised to enable a more valid and practical basis for business planning in this very different
business environment.
Taken together, these papers indicated the need for a new framework for market analysis
that better reflects this highly regulated and “contrived” market. To understand the potential
threats by challengers and other contingencies, agencies must develop “market knowledge”
(Day, 1994): their approach to market participation must be modified by embedding new
knowledge about the market including customers, competitors, market trends and regulation
(Day, 1994; Lavie, 2006).
Existing tools
It has been argued (D’Aveni, 1994) that in hypercompetitive environments, performance is an
outcome of a continuous series of competitive actions. It follows that we must consider
the context and drivers of these actions. An updated contingency approach must include
the identification and satisfaction of those external drivers that, in this new kind of market, will
offer most value (both to the customer, stakeholders and to the company), differentiation
and product/service efficacy (Ulaga, 2003; Ittner et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2010; Mansfield and
Fourie, 2004; Neysen, 2008-2009).
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SWOT analysis (Ronco and Cahill, 2005) and PESTLE has, for many years, been the standard
approach for gathering information and surveying the internal and external factors impacting
upon an organisation. These and other strategic planning frameworks offer a useful approach in
taking a broad brush evaluation of the potential drivers for change, although the TOWS
approach (also termed situational analysis) appears to offer a more analytic approach as a
further level of evaluation, after SWOT has been completed. The rationale behind the use of
PESTLE is the need for companies to evaluate and position themselves within the wider “meso-
economic” and “macro-economic” environments in which they operate.
The precursor of other models (Porter’s five forces, the PEST analysis), the SWOT analysis, is used
with varying degrees of skill and analytical rigour (Ronco and Cahill, 2005; Hill and Westbrook, 1997).
It remains, however, one of the most popular and widely used analysis tools, particularly by non-
specialists. However, there are a number of difficulties with their use. As Ronco and Cahill established,
many practitioners were not using SWOT effectively. They, and other researchers, found that there
were a number of weaknesses in the approach which negates its value, if not used to its full potential.
For instance, problems arise with: the statistical insignificance of the numbers of participants (Ronco
and Cahill, 2005); the lack of prioritising of issues (Leigh, 2006), the generation of a plethora of ideas
without clear direction as to the significance of each (Takahashi and Maeno, 2010); its inability to deal
with multi-dimensional issues, so issues may be placed into the “nearest fit” rather than the most
appropriate category; the arbitrariness of the classification of issues into the categories (Dobes and
Bennett, 2010); the complete reliance on the skill and knowledge of the facilitator in the absence of
clear ground rules; the lack of information about the business impact of identified issues and the lack
of ability to determine whether some issues may be a strength or a weakness (Leigh, 2006):
However, the SWOT framework tells us that environmental analysis – no matter how rigorous – is only
half the story. A complete understanding of sources of competitive advantage requires the analysis of
a firm’s internal strengths and weaknesses as well (Barney, 1993, p. 49).
In contrast to a SWOT, PESTLE focuses on the wider environment, both currently and in the
predictable future, which may impact positively or negatively on the organisation, and is used to
inform longer term planning and strategic planning. However:
The most serious disadvantage for PEST is the whole analysis is a construct based on assumption
without any proof. Strategic planning based on unproven data about the organization or any of the
other elements is a high risk exercise (Dobes and Bennett, 2010).
In a dynamic environment, external drivers are continuously changing, and so require constant
monitoring for accuracy and change, having included a thorough analysis of current and future
change drivers (Day, 1990; Boeker, 1997; Baden-Fuller and Volberda, 1997; Walsh, 2005):
If a firm operates within a highly dynamic context, which requires constant changes in the product, its
competitive strategy will be enhanced by a flexible structure that makes these changes easier. With the
passing of time, that organizational design may be improved through a “learning-by-doing” process
(Nonaka and Takeuchi, 1995), thanks to which it will be possible to maintain the firm’s competitive
advantage over time. It may be possible for competitors to develop a similar organizational design, but
this normally takes time, and by then, a firm may have gone on to develop its skills further and to learn to
use them in different ways (Miller and Shamsie, 1996) (Pertusa-Ortega et al., 2010, p. 1294).
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audience” offers a ready market for domiciliary care, as long as the RSL is able to capitalise on
its good reputation and existing information about customer needs and preferences. This means
that investment in attracting private customers generates less urgency; and this may give rise to
some complacency.
At the close of the second paper, a number of attributes were identified as being necessary to
ensure that an updated contingency model can support effective strategic planning: equifinality;
prioritisation; diagnosis; balance; consistency; multi-directionality; and specificity. The External
Drivers Model that follows was developed, originally to assist AHA as part of a consultancy exercise,
and this consultancy project is used here as a case study, from which, we suggest, wider
generalisations can be drawn. This new model draws on a range of existing perspectives, including
(Ansoff, 1957a, b, 1963, 1964, 1965), the Change Kaleidoscope (Balogun and Hope Hailey, 2008),
the Cultural Web (Johnson et al., 2008) and McKinsey (Peters and Waterman, 1982).
In formulating a new approach to competitive advantage, the new model builds upon the
proposition that the established models of market orientation – customer orientation, competitor
orientation and interfunctional coordination (Narver and Slater, 1990) while valuable, fail to
recognise the impact of industry trends, technological advances and especially of regulation.
Thus, the new model identifies five external influences or drivers that the organisation must satisfy in
order to achieve market success. It does this by ensuring that each internal function meets these
external demands from the environment, whilst being aligned with each other. However, although the
model classifies the external drivers and internal responses into neat “boxes”, this is not to imply that
any or all are completely separate entities without influence or impact upon any or all of the others.
Whilst the capacity of the organisation to influence the macro-environment may be limited, the
External Drivers Model uses macro-economic information in combination with meso-economic
factors to inform strategic planning, as all these factors may directly restrict or increase the profitability
of the firm. Thus, by evaluating and planning against these environments, it is possible to maximise
commercial opportunities and minimise market threats, in full recognition of long-term trends.
Market
conditions Industry
Regulation
trends
Customer/
Technological
stakeholder
advances
demand
Organisational
response leads to
market success
Structure Processes
Marketing Strategy
Culture
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maximised profits and growth and dividends for stakeholders. Meeting customer
requirements must, by necessity, be a central focus, as without customers, a business
does not exist.
Stakeholders are presented by a wide and diverse cohort: from shareholders in private
companies, to trustees in the charitable or third sector, and employees and representative or
professional bodies, all have a stake in the effective governance, operation, appropriation of
income and future growth and prosperity of the whole. Indeed, as we will see in the mobile
phone hacking example, stakeholders of the tabloid press included the government and
executive, who were reliant on the newspapers to champion their policies and to represent them
to the public in a positive light.
Market conditions may be influenced by local, national or international issues which have, or
have the potential, to impact upon companies’ ability to produce goods or services and to
generate profit and ultimately rent. This could include money supply, access to credit, interest
rates and global influences such as war and revolution, or more locally, competitor activity
(including tangible and intangible resources and attributes), changes in competitors, alternative/
substitute products and new entrants to the market.
Regulation incorporates all official external determinants of organisational behaviour, including
national and international legislation. It may be permissive or prohibitive, and once again,
requires balance between competing requirements.
Industry trends may have a stronger influence in some sectors than in others, but all
will have some level of impact. The rise in demand for personalisation of services and
products is increasingly requiring suppliers to develop customised products; the trend for
outsourcing has had a widespread influence both in internal functions (information
technology and human resources) and in customer-facing services being moved across
continents to save costs.
Technological advances may stimulate greater efficiency and more economical use of
resources, allowing for increased profits and growth, but conversely may put pressure on
product life cycle by speeding obsolescence and forcing heavy investment in research and
development. This can disadvantage smaller players and market entrants.
Internal responses
The organisational structure refers to the way that activity is organised: the hierarchical and
departmental frameworks are fundamental to the organisation’s response to external pressures.
The use of resources as framed through the structure (including staffing numbers and
deployment) always reflect the organisation’s priorities and the relative importance given to
different activities and the value of assets and resources.
The strategy details how the organisation plans to respond to external drivers, both pro-actively
and reactively, using the structure as a framework. It gives a framework and shared purpose to
the activities of staff, and uses existing and projected information to determine priorities and how
resources will be exploited, including provision for investment in human capital.
The culture of the organisation is the manifestation of its response to how it sees the world
around and within it: it reflects vision and values; how relationships work across the hierarchical
and departmental boundaries; how it views and behaves towards its customers, suppliers, staff
and other stakeholders. The appetite for change is part of its culture, as is its ambition for
excellence. Culture is not homogeneous, and informal sub-cultures will exist, but that there will
be one culture seeking dominance.
Processes are the detailed activities designed to deliver the strategic aims. Dependent on the
rigour of the regulatory context, the level of prescribed detail and capacity for individual
judgement is determined by the complexity of the required outputs and outcomes. These
processes are as important as structure and strategy, as they signal the practical deployment of
resources: without effective research and development based on knowledge and insight around
market trends, product development will be unable to respond appropriately.
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An organisation’s marketing is the image of itself that it wishes to present, both to the external
market, but also to staff and stakeholders. More than just advertising and publications, it
includes all interactions between the company and potential or actual customers, suppliers and
stakeholders. The veracity of the message and how closely it accords with the “feel” of the
company to stakeholders and staff may influence how positively (or conversely, how cynically)
those individuals view the organisation.
Marketing needs to be balanced with product development and output capacity: highly
successful marketing that is not backed up with a good product and the ability to meet demand
will represent wasted resources.
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market conditions are suppressing prices and industry trends are maintaining high-quality
standards. Technological advances, in the form of assistive technology, are enabling customers
to live independently and in safety.
The only absolute external driver that could not be balanced by others is legislation and
regulation. All other combinations can be adjusted. Whilst this shows the flexibility of the model,
it does not assist the user to prioritise between different drivers.
In order to proceed, it became clear that it was more useful to bundle various options
together as packages. Foremost of these were the values creation approach, and the risk-based
approach. In practice, the risk-based, damage limitation prioritising was found to be the
most clear and objective of the competing options, though both are presented here, to illustrate
the strengths of each.
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individuals. How, then, should this be scored? Experienced users of the impact/probability
approach will generally use “worst case scenario” and score it as a significant threat, but this
could be open to interpretation.
It was also clear in using this approach that a scoring range of 1-9 was probably not
detailed enough, and that to ensure finer gradation, a wider range of multipliers should be
used. This was evidenced by the similar scores generated by diverse factors, which, on
examination, were shown to be the result of quite different multipliers, but with the
superficial appearance of similar degrees of significance or priority. Very clear criteria for
scoring different drivers and responses within the model were fundamental to ensuring
specificity of measurement.
However, with some further development, this approach, in combination with the other analysis
tools detailed above, offers a sound theoretical basis on which to analyse information prior to
undertaking business planning.
Thus, the Risk Management Approach was found to be the most sensitive in use, and therefore
offered the best capacity to determine clear priorities for internal responses.
Once the drivers were prioritised, a business planning matrix was used provide a framework
within which to identify which activities/functions/structures to be implemented.
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incorporated into the final model. The final External Drivers Model offers a theoretical model of
the essential forces in the contrived social care market.
Whilst the model is based on sound theory around competitive advantage and contingency
theory amongst others, a deliberate attempt was made to design a practical business tool
without unnecessary background detail. Further developments of the model could link to useful
background and theoretical data, and to ensure an evidential audit trail, the business plan will
include all substantiating information.
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Corresponding author
Patricia Dearnaley can be contacted at: pdearnaley@btinternet.com
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