Use of International Traveler Data to predict the rise of nCoV-2019

Samran Shahid and Gunjan Shrivastava

Published: 3/Feb/2020

Abstract: The emergence of nCoV-2019 in Wuhan city has led the world to predict and estimate the figures of probable
infection rates and deaths worldwide after outbreak of nCoV-2019 has been confirmed in many countries, International
travelers being the main vectors of nCoV-2019.

Key-Words: nCoV-2019, SARS, MERS, nCoV-2019 infection rates.

Summary :

Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of
the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5)
other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in
Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to
block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. It is likely, based on the experience of
SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable – with many
cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate
currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China and the extent to which the
populations of affected areas have adopted risk-reducing behaviours. In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines,
control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether
this outbreak can be contained within China; uncertainties include the severity spectrum of the disease caused by this
virus and whether cases with relatively mild symptoms are able to transmit the virus efficiently. Identification and
testing of potential cases need to be as extensive as is permitted by healthcare and diagnostic testing capacity –
including the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-
like illness), when logistically feasible.

Thus from the Introduction of a vector in USA ,nearly 8,92,01,500 would be effected within 20 days if the spread is left
uncontrolled or undetected.

Research Methodology: Use of International Traveler Data of a particular country and statistical probability to calculate
the spread of nCoV-2019 in a country.

Since, number of Chinese citizens travelling to USA per year is 3.2 million (per day 8765 travelers).
Assumption 1: spread is significant in Wuhan city and anyone in Wuhan city can be a potential undiagnosed vector.
Population of Wuhan city is 11 million.
Accounting for probability, Number of Chinese travelers to USA per day from Wuhan = 74.16 travelers
Transmissibility rate of nCoV-2019 = 2.54 on average.
Assumption 2: quarantine failure rate is 1%.

Thus Uncontrolled infection spread rate to USA = 74.16 x (2.54)n x 0.01 (n = Number of Days ; n>3 )
Interpretations of Results :

DAY Number of people Infected

3 11
4 29
5 75
6 191
7 487
8 1236
9 3141
10 7980
11 20270

12 51487
13 130778
14 332170
15 843730
16 2143076
17 5443414
18 13826270
19 35118732
20 89201580

60000

50000

40000

30000
Series2

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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