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MIDDLE EAST
American Influence in the Middle East:
Decline, Rise or Stagnant?
Is the American Influence in the Middle East declining? The question of whether or not the United States has a declining i
in the Middle East is not a simple one. In fact Dafna Hochman Rand, Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of Democra
Human Rights and Labor stated in a policy brief that the […]
By Jason Roth May 27, 2016 No Comments   
Is the American Influence in the Middle East declining? The question of whether or not the
States has a declining influence in the Middle East is not a simple one. In fact Dafna Hochma
Rand, Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor sta
a policy brief that the decline of U.S. influence in the Middle East ‘is an oversimplification of
issue.’ If it is an ‘oversimplification’, does that mean American influence in the Middle East i
the decline, rise or just stagnant?
In order to answer the previously stipulated question it is important to look at various regions of the Middle East and see ho
American influence is both perceived and accepted. First and foremost, the current administration’s stance toward Syria. U
Congressman Bob Dold, a Republican from Illinois feels that it is not an issue of influence rather an issue of leadership. In
interview with the Congressman he answered the question of whether or not the US influence in the Middle East has been
decreasing with, ‘I don’t know that it is necessarily losing influence. I think that the United States lack of leadership has rea
an impact and that has an effect on what people will do, and what nations will do.’
Congressman Dold set as an example President Obama’s red
line stance in Syria. ‘A red line in Syria that frankly the Syrians
trampled over it, not once, not twice, but well over a dozen
times. The world is watching, what will be the response when
the President of the United States and this administration says,
‘this is the red line’ and then it is ignored. And there is no
response from the United States.’ Dold asserted that our allies
and enemies are watching and our allies do not want to ‘stick
my neck out, because I don’t know if the United States will be
there.’ In essence it emboldens the enemies of the United States
while weakening America’s presence and influence with its
allies. As Dold stated in the interview, ‘It creates a far more
dangerous world, when the United States does not step up to
lead and follow through on its commitments.’
What happens when the United States does not lead? Nations 
like Russia become emboldened. In the interview with
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Congressman Dold he was asked whether potential candidates US Interests in the M
Donald Trump orGEOPOLITICS & DIPLOMACY
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foreign policy could reverse CONFLICTS / SECURITY SOCIETY HOT & COL
the trend of countries in the Middle East looking towards Russia to assure their security. In terms of the current strife in Syr
stated that Russia is ‘helping Syria and having planes actually attack folks that have been helpful to the United States in the
claiming they were going after ISIS and we realized that was not the case, there were going after folks that were anti-Assad
reinforced that it was a problem and that ‘we are seeing Russia and Putin flex their muscles and take a far more aggressive
that we would like and it requires the United States leadership to assure the world that we will be there.’
Essentially, the issue in Syria is not a lack of influence, rather a lack of firm leadership. What about Iran? The United State
America agreed to pay $1.7 billion to Iran, a state that sponsors terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jiha
nuclear agreement that is unsigned and already broken by Iran. One issue with the agreement, and there are many, is that it
to take the Obama administration’s utmost attention which led to neglecting many of the Middle East’s other critical issues
American president supported the anti-government protestors instead of Assad’s regime. Initially this could be seen as a po
maneuver, but what happened when the most effective anti-Assad fighters turned out to be ISIS?
A second issue with the Nuclear Agreement is that by releasing billions of dollars
to Iran, essentially the United States is helping to fund terror. U.S. Congressman
Dold, when asked about this responded, ‘I think that this deal, honestly, is awful.
Awful for the United States, awful for its allies. We certainly know that those
dollars are going to be funneled into places like Hizbullah, Hamas and to Assad
in Syria.’
A third problem is that this agreement ensures Iran gets a nuclear weapon. The
United States’ previous administrations have done all they could to prevent a
nuclear Iran. However, the current administrations lack of leadership and
negotiating capabilities has acquiesced to not having anytime, anywhere
An anti-US protest i
inspections and has done nothing when Iran has broken its agreement. Dold
stated, ‘and frankly we have seen Iran already break its agreement with the
United Nations, testing of rockets, not once, not twice, three times. The most recent one the side of the rockets basically say
‘Death to Israel’.
‘We see the influence and the shifting of influence there as Iran becomes emboldened and how they bully neighbors there,
the neighbors will respond to this as well. The world is watching. They are watching what happens in the United States. An
lack of leadership from the United States, someone will rush to fill that void.’
The United States has abstained from helping allies in the Middle East (Sisi in Egypt, Saleh in Yemen, etc). The lack of sup
the Syrian Moderate Rebels created a resentment in the region. GCC countries led by Saudi Arabia have recently said they
believe the United States could assure their security if Iran succeeds in gaining a nuclear arsenal. The current administratio
United States has shown a lack of leadership according to Congressman Dold. Congressman Dold feels that if Iran does ga
nuclear weapon, ‘it will have a huge ripple effect in the region. A nuclear power has to be treated differently than a non-nuc
power.’ Again though, it is not an influence loss, but rather a lack of leadership from the United States that causes nations i
Middle East to ponder.
It is an uncontested fact that the United States, on some level, has influence in the Middle East. What can be done to streng
‘The United States has an obligation to step up and be the leader of the free world.’ Dold went on to comment that the ‘wor
that we will be shoulder to shoulder with Israel’. He also mentioned that following through with commitments would be th
step to strengthen influence. One issue for Dold is the fact that ‘Mushroom Diplomacy’ is being done. ‘In a sense, they are
to neighbors in the dark.’ Granted this gives a united front for the nations in the Middle East to combat a nuclear Iran politi
Congressman Dold asserts that a ‘memorandum of understanding would certainly be positive.’ However bi-partisan effort i
needed. Congressman Dold discussed an issue during his interview, the Visa Waiver Program. The House of Representative
an amendment to the Visa Waiver Program that would prevent those with a visa waiver passport to enter the United States i
had travelled to Iran, Syria, and Iraq. This almost caused Iran to walk on the agreement because it was to them a sanction.
According to Dold, ‘Secretary Kerry said, ‘well perhaps we might be able to waiver on this.’ This is a complete opposition
partisan effort and law that passed in the United States Congress.’ Dold said that the United States needed to avoid doing th
that to ‘build confidence amongst our allies in the region.’
When asked how to ease tensions between the United States and her Middle Eastern allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia and
strengthen their alliances, Congressman Dold said, ‘this is about diplomacy, and making sure the United States in actively e
Because when we (United States) are not actively engaged someone else will be.’
The Institute for National Security Studies 2014-2015 edition of Strategic Survey for Israel has an article entitled Internatio
Involvement in the Middle East. The article states that relations between the two nations (US and Israel) were in ‘good cond
cites proof of this by showing how military equipment deals were extended to include the purchase of F-35 warplanes and t
vote cast on December 30, 2014 on the Palestinian resolution and the US readiness to veto if passed. However, it should be
that during Operation Protective Edge, the United States delayed shipment of Hellfire missiles, Secretary of State Kerry’s a
efforts in the nine month long negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians actually spurred ‘a campaign of accusations
personal vilification ensued between senior Israeli and American officials, with the Americans involved in the political pro
placing most of the blame for the failure of the talks on Israel and its settlement policy.’
If it is not a deterioration of American influence in the Middle East, or certainly a rising one, then is it fair to say that Amer
influence in the Middle East is simply stagnant? To answer this question it is pertinent to paraphrase a well-known quote by
Twain, the reports that the United States has lost its influence in the Middle East were greatly exaggerated. What was lost, i
American leadership and trust between nations that will need to be built back up in order to ensure stability in the region.
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