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Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
University of Pennsylvania
Besides the neoclassical growth model, the OLG model is the second
major workhorse of modern macroeconomics.
Motivation I
But:
Motivation II
Why?
Timing
generationntime 1 2 ... t t +1
0 (c10 , e10 )
1 (c11 , e11 ) (c21 , e21 )
.. ..
. .
t 1 (ctt 1 , ett 1
)
t (ctt , ett ) (ctt+1 , ett+1 )
t +1 (ctt++11 , ett+
+1
1)
Double In…nities
This “double in…nity” has been cited to be the major source of the
theoretical peculiarities of the OLG model (prominently by Karl Shell).
For example, double in…nity will be key for the failure of the …rst
fundamental welfare theorem to hold in the model.
If m < 0, one should envision the initial old people having borrowed
from some institution (outside the model) and m is the amount to be
repaid.
Preferences
ut (c ) = U (ctt ) + βU (ctt+1 )
u0 (c ) = U (c10 )
Allocations I
De…nition
An allocation is a sequence c10 , fctt , ctt+1 gt∞=1 .
De…nition
An allocation is feasible if ctt 1
, ctt 0 for all t 1 and
ctt 1
+ ctt = ett 1
+ ett for all t 1
De…nition
An allocation is stationary if ctt t
1 , ct 0 for all t 1 and
ctt 1
= ctt = c for all t 1
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 11 / 53
Setup
Allocations II
De…nition
An allocation c10 , f(ctt , ctt+1 )gt∞=1 is Pareto optimal if it is feasible and if
there is no other feasible allocation ĉ01 , f(ĉtt , ĉtt+1 )gt∞=1 such that:
Money as Numeraire
Markets Structure
Plausibility?
Sequential Trading
Trade takes place sequentially in spot markets for consumption goods
that open in each period.
Arrow-Debreu Equilibrium
Given m, an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium is an allocation ĉ10 , f(ĉtt , ĉtt+1 )gt∞=1
and prices fpt gt∞=1 such that
1 Given fpt gt∞=1 , for each t 1, (ĉtt , ĉtt+1 ) solves:
max u0 (c10 )
c10
ctt 1
+ ctt = ett 1
+ ett for all t 1
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 16 / 53
Markets Structure
By resource balance:
+1
stt+ t
1 = (1 + rt +1 )st
s11 = (1 + r1 )m
By repeated substitution:
stt = Πtτ =1 (1 + rτ )m
Interpretation.
Divide by pt > 0:
pt + 1 t pt + 1 t
ctt + ct +1 = ett + e
pt pt t + 1
pt
Hence, it looks that 1 + rt +1 = p t +1 must play a key role.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 20 / 53
Markets Structure
Equivalence Proposition
Given equilibrium Arrow-Debreu prices fpt gt∞=1 , de…ne interest rates:
pt
1 + rt +1 =
pt + 1
1
1 + r1 =
p1
These interest rates induce a sequential markets equilibrium with the
same allocation than the Arrow-Debreu equilibrium.
Conversely, given equilibrium sequential markets interest rates interest
rates frt gt∞=1 , de…ne Arrow-Debreu prices by
1
p1 =
1 + r1
pt
pt + 1 =
1 + rt + 1
These prices induce allocations that are equivalent to the sequential
markets equilibrium.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 21 / 53
Markets Structure
Return on Money
The real return on money equals the negative of the in‡ation rate.
Using:
1
p1 =
1 + r1
pt
pt + 1 =
1 + rt + 1
Interpretation.
stt = Πtτ =1 (1 + rτ )m
Hence:
m
stt =
pt
1 An equilibrium condition.
2 A money demand function.
O¤er Curves
For given pt , pt +1 > 0, let by ctt (pt , pt +1 ) and ctt+1 (pt , pt +1 ) denote
the solution to maximization problem of agent for all t 1.
(y , f (y ))
f can be a multi-valued correspondence.
A point on the o¤er curve is an optimal excess demand function for
some ppt +t 1 2 (0, ∞).
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 26 / 53
O¤er Curves
z(p ,p )
Offer Curve z(y) t t+1
-w y(p ,p )
1 t t+1
-w
2
pt y (pt , pt +1 ) + pt +1 z (pt , pt +1 ) = 0 )
z (pt , pt +1 ) pt
= ,
y ( pt , pt + 1 ) pt + 1
and
m
z ( pt , pt + 1 ) =
pt + 1
and
m
g ( rt + 1 ) =
pt + 1
Also, note that
m
f ( rt + 1 ) = = g (rt )
pt
is an aggregate resource constraint that implies a di¤erence equation
on rt .
c10 = z0 (p1 , m ) + w2
ctt = y (pt , pt +1 ) + w1
ctt+1 = z (pt , pt +1 ) + w2
z
0
Slope=-p /p
1 2
z
1
z
2
z
3
y(p ,p )
t t+1
y y y
1 2 3
Remarks
Any initial p1 that induces sequences c10 , f(ctt , ctt+1 ), pt gt∞=1 such that
the consumption sequence satis…es ctt 1 , ctt 0 is an equilibrium for
given money stock.
pt U 0 (ett ) U 0 (w1 )
= =
pt + 1 βU 0 (ett+1 ) βU 0 (w2 )
and this ratio represents the slope of the o¤er curve at the origin.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (PENN) OLG Models February 12, 2016 34 / 53
O¤er Curves
Gale (1973):
2 Classical case: r̄ 0.
If, however, the value of the aggregate endowment is in…nite (at the
equilibrium prices), then the competitive equilibrium MAY not be
Pareto optimal.
Intuition I
δ0 U 0 (e11 ) = δ1 βU 0 (e21 )
or
U 0 (e11 ) 1
δ1 = δ0 = δ0 (1 + r2 ) >0
βU 0 (e21 )
Intuition II
Such a scheme does not work if the economy ends at …ne time T
since the last generation (that lives only through youth) is worse o¤.
But as our economy extends forever, such an intergenerational
transfer scheme is feasible provided that the δt do not grow too fast,
that is, if interest rates are su¢ ciently small.
But if such a transfer scheme is feasible, then we found a Pareto
improvement over the original autarkic allocation, and hence the
autarkic equilibrium allocation is not Pareto e¢ cient.
Second main result of OLG models: outside money may have positive
value.
2 An asset has a bubble if its price does not equal its fundamental value.
3 Since money does not pay dividends, its fundamental value is zero and
the fact that it is valued positively in equilibrium makes it a bubble.
Intuition I
Without the outside asset, again, this economy can do nothing else
but remain in the possibly dismal state of autarky.
Intuition II
Theorem
In pure exchange economies with a …nite number of in…nitely lived agents,
there cannot be an equilibrium in which outside money is valued.
Proof
Suppose, that there is an equilibrium f(ĉti )i 2I gt∞=1 , fp̂t gt∞=1 for initial
endowments of outside money (mi )i 2I such that ∑i 2I mi 6= 0. By local
nonsatiation:
∞
∑ p̂t ĉti = ∑ p̂t eti + mi < ∞
t =1 t =1
De…cit Finance I
Thrown into the sea (or enters separably in the utility function).
Then:
mt mt 1 = pt ( g τ1 τ 2 ) = pt d
De…cit Finance II
mt
Now, remember that f (rt +1 ) = pt .
Hence:
mt 1 mt mt 1
f ( rt + 1 ) = +
| {z } p p
Young Saving | {zt } | {zt }
Old Dissaving Government Dissaving
mt 1
= +d
pt
mt 1 pt 1
= +d
pt 1 pt
= f ( rt ) ( 1 + rt ) + d
f (r ) = f (r ) (1 + r ) + d )
rf (r ) = d
and
m0
f (r ) = +d
p1
Since r is a tax on real balances, rf (r ) is a La¤er curve.
Multiple equilibria:
1 Stationary and non-starionary (continuum).
2 Pareto-ranked.
More general property: existence of interesting equilibria.
Continuum of Equilibria I
Continuum of Equilibria II
Local uniqueness: for every equilibrium price vector there exists ε such
that any ε-neighborhood of the price vector does not contain another
equilibrium price vector, apart from the trivial ones involving a
di¤erent normalization (Debreu, 1970).
If we are in the Samuelson case r̄ < 0, then (and only then) all these
equilibria are Pareto-ranked.
If we introduce a productive asset with positive dividends and no
money, there exists a unique equilibrium, which is Pareto optimal.
It is not the existence of a long-lived outside asset that is responsible
for the existence of a continuum of equilibria.
If we introduce a Lucas tree with negative dividends (the initial old
generation is an eternal slave, say, of the government and has to come
up with d in every period to be used for government consumption),
then the existence of the whole continuum of equilibria is restored.
Endogenous Cycles
After period t = 2 the economy repeats the cycle from the …rst two
periods.
-p /p
1 2 Offer Curve z(y)
z(p ,p ), z(m,p )
t t+1 1
Resource constraint y+z=0
Slope=-1
z
1
-p /p
2 3
z
0
y(p ,p )
t t+1
y y
2 1
Equilibrium
c ol = z0 w2 for t odd
ctt 1
=
c oh = z1 w2 for t even
c yl = y1 w1 for t odd
ctt =
c yh = y2 w1 for t even
pt αh for t odd
=
pt + 1 αl for t even
π l < 0 for t odd
π t +1 = rt +1 =
π h > 0 for t even
Remarks
Note that these cycles are purely endogenous in the sense that the
environment is completely stationary: nothing distinguishes odd and
even periods.