PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK

CANADA, MAY 2019

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OVERVIEW
What you need to know
One of the biggest shifts in eating behaviours in Canada and in
other markets has been the movement towards eating and drinking
plant-based food and beverage alternatives. Does this represent a
passing fad or a sustained, longer-term shift? Feedback gathered
from Canadians for this Report suggests the latter. The base of
Canadians who indicate that they are trying to add more plant-
based substitutes to their diet is relatively broad (28%). That
said, barriers to eating plant-based foods exist, and the ability of
companies that operate in this space to overcome them will be
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2
essential to growing overall penetration and consequently, growing
sales. This Report identifies what the main barriers are, and uses
consumer feedback to suggest potential opportunities in the space.
Definition
Plant-based proteins are proteins utilized in foods and have been
derived from a plant or vegetable source, such as beans/legumes
(eg soy, chickpeas, lentils, peas), nuts (eg almonds, cashews),
seeds (eg chia, hemp, sesame) and grains (eg wheat, quinoa), as
well as others.
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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 3

REPORT CONTENT

Overview
What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary
The issues
Taste, cost and the perception of being overly-processed are hurdles for plant-based alternatives
Figure 1: Barriers to usage if plant-based products (% agree), March 2019
Vegans and vegetarians represent a relatively small slice of the broader consumer base
Figure 2: Diet preferences, March 2019
Ethical considerations are a concern for sub-set of consumers
Figure 3: Select reasons for avoiding animal-based products, by diet type, March 2019
The opportunities
Younger women are key to the growth of the segment
Figure 4: “Trying to add more plant-based substitutes to (their) diet”, women 18-24 vs overall population, March 2019
Older consumers more aware of their protein intake, but younger consumers looking to add more protein to what they eat and drink
Figure 5: Attitudes toward protein, by age, March 2019
Pasta and cereal are the most commonly accepted foods in which to include plant-based protein
Figure 6: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019
What it means

The Market
What You Need to Know
Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation
Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption
Canada’s food guide places focus on protein

Market Factors
Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation
Figure 7: Global population by half-century (2050 forecast)
Focus on health and weight management to continue
Figure 8: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption
Figure 9: Beef, carcass by weight, 1960 - 2017
Canada food guide increases focus on protein

Key Players
What You Need to Know
Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies
Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives
Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve

What’s Working?
Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 4

Challenges
Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives
Figure 10: Behind the Impossible Burger, Ep. 1: Science for the Plate & Planet, March 2018
What’s in a name? War or words brewing between different interests

What’s Next?
The next burger wars may be plant based
Figure 11: Beyond Meat They Beyond Burger Plant Based Burger Patties (US), January 2017
Figure 12: Beyond Meat Beyond Sausage Brat Original Plant-Based Sausage (US), November 2018
‘Farm-to-fork’ may evolve from ‘lab-to-fork’
Figure 13: How to make cell-based meat, December 2016
Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve
Figure 14: Oatly! The Original Oat-Milk (US), March 2019
Figure 15: Purely Elizabeth Dark Chocolate Strawberry Superfood Granola (US), January 2019
Figure 16: Convitta Linha Premium Shitake Shimeji Handmade Burger (Brazil), February 2019
Figure 17: Oh Naturel! Quinoa Mushroom Burgers (US), May 2018
Figure 18: Happy Cheeze Fresh Cheese Alternative from Cashews with Spirulina Chilli (Germany), January 2018
Plant-based formats also continue to evolve
Figure 19: Gardein Fish-Free Crabless Cakes (US), April 2019
Figure 20: Trader Joe’s Vegan Jackfruit Cakes (US), January 2019
Figure 21: Gardein Meat-Free Chipotle Lime Crispy Fingers (Canada), April 2019
Figure 22: PC President’s Choice Corn, Carrot & Kale Veggie Bites (Canada), March 2019
Figure 23: Daiya Mozza Style Slices (Canada), May 2019
Figure 24: Daiya Deluxe White Cheddar Style Veggie Cheezy Mac (Canada), February 2017
Figure 25: Healthy Choice Power Bowls Cauliflower Curry (US), September 2018
Figure 26: Green Giant Fresh Buddha Bowl (US), April 2019
Figure 27: Lundberg Family Farms Organic Grainspirations Korean Style Chili Rice & Quinoa Bowl (US), October 2018

The Consumer
What You Need to Know
A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks
Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives exist
Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals
Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians

Usage of Plant-Based Foods/Drinks

A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks
Figure 28: Statements about diets, March 2019
Figure 29: “I plan to start eating more plant-based alternatives” (% agree), March 2019
Age and income impact usage of plant-based food substitutes
Figure 30: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by age and income, March 2019
Figure 31: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by parental status, March 2019
Figure 32: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by region, March 2019
Figure 33: Diet preferences, March 2019
Figure 34: Trying to add more plant-based food substitutes into diet – by diet preference, March 2019
Canadians avoid meat for three main reasons
Figure 35: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, March 2019
Figure 36: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by age and gender, March 2019
Motivations for avoiding animal products vary by diet followed
Figure 37: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by diet type, March 2019

Barriers to Using Plant-Based Alternatives

Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives
Figure 38: Barriers to using plant-base alternatives (% agree), March 2019

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 5

Over-processing is a concern for most Canadians

Figure 39: “Plant-based meat alternatives that mimic the taste and texture of real meat are overly-processed” (% agree), women 18-24 vs overall,
March 2019
For Canadians, plant-based foods are not just for vegetarians
Figure 40: “Plant-based foods are just for vegetarian/vegans” (% agree), by age and gender, March 2019

Attitudes toward Protein

Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals
Figure 41: Statements about protein, March 2019
Figure 42: Statements about protein, by gender, March 2019
Figure 43: Statements about protein, by age, March 2019
Figure 44: Statements about protein, by parental status, March 2019
Plants are well-positioned to meet the protein needs of Canadians
Figure 45: “Plant-based foods can provide all the protein I need” (% agree), by age, March 2019
Figure 46: Plant-based protein is healthier than animal protein (% agree), by generation, March 2019
Nuts are the most common non-meat protein Canadians use
Figure 47: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, March 2019
Figure 48: Type of plant-based protein, current usage vs interest, March 2019
Figure 49: Biosteel Sports Nutrition Sport Greens Acai Lemonade High Performance Superfood Powder, March 2019 (Canada)
Figure 50: Simple Truth Vanilla Flavor Plant Based Protein Powder, February 2019 (US)
Figure 51: Quorn Southern Fried Bites, November 2018 (UK)
Figure 52: Dr. Oetker Ristorante Pizza Pesto with Quorn, December 2018 (UK)
Figure 53: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, by age, March 2019
Figure 54: Type of plant-based protein (select) – any use or interest, 18-44s by gender, March 2019

Category-Based Opportunities
Pasta and cereal are the most common foods eaten containing plant-based protein
Figure 55: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019
Figure 56: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, by diet type, March 2019
Plant-based energy bars and drinks proves more popular with young men
Figure 57: Energy bars and drinks used with plant-based protein, men 18-34 vs overall, March 2019
Figure 58: KronoBar Performance Snacks Chocolate Avocado Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada)
Figure 59: Simply Protein Bar Snacks Lemon Coconut Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada)
Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians
Figure 60: Population segments who are more likely to eat meat substitutes, March 2019

Appendix
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 6

DATABOOK CONTENT
Standard demographics you can expect to see tracked in our Databooks:

• Age and income

• Age
• Area
• Born in Canada
• Children in household
• Education
• Employment
• Family structure
• Financial situation
• Gender and age
• Gender and marital status
• Gender
• Generation
• Household income
• Household size
• Housing situation
• Language primarily spoken in the home
• Marital status
• Mobile device ownership
• Number of children of any age in household
• Number of children under 18 in household
• Parental status by gender
• Parental status
• Race and origin
• Race
• Region
• Sexual orientation
• Social media
• Visit social media websites daily
• Visit social media websites weekly

Consumer Research

Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you?

Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you?, by demographics
Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply.
Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply.
Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying?
Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying?, by demographics
Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest
Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest, by
demographics
Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply.
Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply.

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 7

Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?, by demographics

Demographics By Demographics

Demographics by demographics

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 8

SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT

Based on exclusive consumer research, Mintel shows you how people use the internet to interact with the brands they buy, the leading
topics of interest and how these play out across categories. We look at opinions shared on social networking sites such as Facebook
and Twitter, via online review sites and forums, and offline. This reporting allows you to see which brands and topics generate the most
conversations online and why.

Women drive dairy alternatives Plant-based brands drive engagement

Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who Beyond Meat, which focuses on meat alternatives with meat-like
require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices. texture and taste, has become exceedingly popular over the last
year and earned higher social engagement than its big name, meat-
Instagram dominates plant-based inspiration focused competitors.

Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who
require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices.
Consumers desire plant-based fast food
Consumers’ desires for plant-based options do not end with sit-
down restaurants; they also seek to capitalize on the convenience
of fast food chains without giving up their plant-based food and
drink.

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019 9

RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 10

Canada Research Methodology

Mintel is an independent market analysis
research has been conducted using a Female, 18-24 6.9 139
company that prides itself on supplying
device agnostic platform for online surveys
objective information on a whole range of Female, 25-34 8.8 177
(ie respondents can now take surveys from
markets and marketing issues. Female, 35-44 9.4 188
a smartphone in addition to a computer or
There are six main sources of research that tablet). This methodology change may result Female, 45-54 8.7 174
are used in the compilation of Mintel reports: in data differences from previous years; any
Female, 55-64 8.6 172
trending should be done with caution.
• Consumer research Female, 65+ 8.5 170
Sampling
• Social media research Total 100 2,000
Online Surveys
• Desk research
Lightspeed
• Trade research Region % N
Founded in 1996, Lightspeed's double Ontario 40.2 804
• Statistical forecasting opt-in U.S. online consumer panel contains Quebec 22.1 443
approximately 1.27 million U.S. consumers. British Columbia 13.3 265
Mintel reports are written and managed by Lightspeed recruits its panelists through
Alberta 10.7 214
analysts with experience in the relevant many different sources including web
Saskatchewan 3.0 61
markets. advertising, permission-based databases
and partner-recruited panels. Note: Manitoba 4.8 95
Consumer research Lightspeed GMI was re-branded as Atlantic Provinces
Lightspeed in September 2016. (New Brunswick,
Newfoundland/
Exclusive and original quantitative 5.9 118
Labrador, Nova
consumer research is commissioned Mintel sets quotas on age and gender,
Scotia, Prince
for almost all Mintel reports. In addition, region, and household income. Specific Edward Island)
qualitative research is also undertaken for quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged
a large proportion of reports in the form of 18+ are shown below. Total* 100 2,000
online discussion groups. Mintel invests a
considerable sum each year in consumer Please note: these quotas are only *Mintel does not include rural regions such as the Yukon
research, and the purchaser of a Mintel representative of a standard General or the Northwest Territories (including Nunavut) in its
report benefits, as the price of an individual Population survey sample of 2,000 internet research. Thus the consumer research data does not
report is less than the cost of the original users aged 18+. Sample size, targets, and reflect opinions and behaviours of the population living in
research alone. The research brings an quotas may vary per report. Please see the those areas.
up-to-date and unique insight into topical Report Appendix for further details.
issues of importance. Household income % N
Age groups by Less than $25,000 14.0 281
Consumer research is conducted among a % N
gender $25,000 - $49,999 20.8 416
nationally representative sample of internet
$50,000 - $69,999 15.0 300
users in Canada and is carried out by Male, 18-24 7.9 158
$70,000 - $99,999 17.8 356
Lightspeed. The results are only available in Male, 25-34 9.1 181 $100,000 and over 32.4 647
Mintel reports. Note that Mintel’s exclusive
research is conducted online in both English Male, 35-44 10.4 207
and French. Male, 45-54 8.1 163 Total 100 2,000

Male, 55-64 6.1 123

Starting in July 2017, Mintel’s consumer Secondary Data Analysis
Male, 65+ 7.4 148

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
In addition to exclusively commissioned
surveys, Mintel gathers syndicated data
from the most respected consumer
research firms. This allows Mintel analysts
to form objective and cohesive analyses
of consumer attitudes and behaviour.
Qualitative Research
Revelation by FocusVision
FocusVision provides Mintel with qualitative
bulletin board software. This allows the
creation of Internet-based, ‘virtual’ venues
where participants recruited from Mintel’s
online surveys gather and engage in
interactive, text-based discussions led by
Mintel moderators.
Further Analysis
Mintel employs numerous quantitative data
analysis techniques to enhance the value
of our consumer research. The techniques
used vary form one report to another. Below
describes some of the more commonly used
techniques.
Repertoire Analysis
This is used to create consumer groups
based on reported behaviour or attitudes.
Consumer responses of the same value
(or list of values) across a list of survey
items are tallied into a single variable.
The repertoire variable summarises the
number of occurrences in which the value
or values appear among a list of survey
items. For example, a repertoire of brand
purchasing might produce groups of those
that purchase 1-2 brands, 3-4 brands and 5
or more brands. Each subgroup should be
large enough (ie N=75+) to analyse.
Cluster Analysis
This technique assigns a set of individual
people in to groups called clusters on the
basis of one or more question responses,
so that respondents within the same cluster
are in some sense closer or more similar to
one another than to respondents that were
grouped into a different cluster.
Correspondence Analysis
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This is a statistical visualisation method for
picturing the associations between rows
(image, attitudes) and columns (brands,
products, segments, etc.) of a two-way
contingency table. It allows us to display
brand images (and/or consumer attitudes
towards brands) related to each brand
covered in this survey in a joint space that
is easy to understand. The significance of
the relationship between a brand and its
associated image is measured using the
Chi-square test. If two brands have similar
response patterns regarding their perceived
images, they are assigned similar scores
on underlying dimensions and will then
be displayed close to each other in the
perceptual map.
CHAID analysis
CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction
Detection), a type of decision tree analysis,
is used to highlight key target groups in a
sample by identifying which sub-groups
are more likely to show a particular
characteristic. This analysis subdivides the
sample into a series of subgroups that share
similar characteristics towards a specific
response variable and allows us to identify
which combinations have the highest
response rates for the target variable. It is
commonly used to understand and visualise
the relationship between a variable of
interest such as “interest in trying a new
product” and other characteristics of the
sample, such as demographic composition.
Key Driver Analysis
Key driver analysis can be a useful tool in
helping to prioritise focus between different
factors which may impact key performance
indicators (eg satisfaction, likelihood to
switch providers, likelihood to recommend
a brand, etc). Using correlations analysis
or regression analysis we can get an
understanding of which factors or attributes
of a market have the strongest association
or “link” with a positive performance on
key performance indicators (KPIs). Hence,
we are able to identify which factors or
attributes are relatively more critical in a
market category compared to others and
ensures that often limited resources can be
allocated to focusing on the main market
drivers.
TURF Analysis
© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
11
TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach &
Frequency) analysis identifies the mix
of features, attributes, or messages that
will attract the largest number of unique
respondents. It is typically used when the
number of features or attributes must be
or should be limited, but the goal is still to
reach the widest possible audience. By
identifying the Total Unduplicated Reach,
it is possible to maximize the number
of people who find one or more of their
preferred features or attributes in the
product line. The resulting output from
TURF is additive, with each additional
feature increasing total reach. The chart
is read from left to right, with each arrow
indicating the incremental change in total
reach when adding a new feature. The final
bar represents the maximum reach of the
total population when all shown features are
offered.
Social Media Research
To complement its exclusive consumer
research, Mintel tracks and analyses social
media data for inclusion in selected reports.
Using Infegy’s Atlas software, Mintel ‘listens
in’ on online conversations across a range
of social platforms including Facebook,
Twitter, consumer forums and the wider
web.
Atlas provides rich consumer insight via
the analysis of commentary posted publicly
on the internet. The system performs
comprehensive and broad collection of
data from millions of internet sources,
working to ensure a faithful and extensive
sampling of feedback from the widest
range of individuals. The dataset contains
commentary posted in real time, as well as
a substantial archive dating back through
2007.
Trade research
Informal
Trade research is undertaken for all reports.
This involves contacting relevant players
in the trade, not only to gain information
concerning their own operations, but also
to obtain explanations and views of the
strategic issues pertinent to the market
being researched. Such is Mintel’s concern
with accuracy that draft copies of reports are
sent to industry representatives, to get their
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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
feedback and avoid any misrepresentation
of the market. These comments are
incorporated into reports prior to final
publication.
Formal
Internally, Mintel’s analysts undertake
extensive trade interviews with selected
key experts in the field for the majority of
reports. The purpose of these interviews
is to assess key issues in the market
place in order to ensure that any research
undertaken takes these into account.
In addition, using experienced external
researchers, trade research is undertaken
for some reports. This takes the form of
full trade interview questionnaires and
direct quotes are included in the report and
analysed by experts in the field. This gives a
valuable insight into a range of trade views
of topical issues.
Desk research
Mintel has an internal team of market
analysts who monitor: government statistics,
consumer and trade association statistics,
manufacturer sponsored reports, annual
company reports and accounts, directories,
press articles from around the world and
online databases. The latter are extracted
from hundreds of publications and websites,
both Canada and overseas. All information
is cross-referenced for immediate access.
Data from other published sources are the
latest available at the time of writing the
report.
This information is supplemented by
an extensive library of Mintel’s reports
produced since 1972 globally and added
to each year by the 500+ reports which are
produced annually.
In addition to in-house sources, researchers
also occasionally use outside libraries such
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as Statistics Canada and the Canadian
Grocer. Other information is also gathered
from store and exhibition visits across
Canada, as well as using other databases
within the Mintel Group, such as the Global
New Product Database (GNPD), which
monitors FMCG sales promotions.
All analysts have access to Mintel’s Market
Size and Macroeconomic Databases –
a database containing many areas of
consumer spending and retail sales as well
as macroeconomic and demographic factors
which impinge on consumer spending
patterns..
The database is used in conjunction with
an SPSS forecasting program which uses
weighted historical correlations of market
dynamics, with independent variables, to
produce future spending scenarios.
Statistical Forecasting
Statistical modelling
For the majority of reports, Mintel produces
five-year forecasts based on an advanced
statistical technique known as ‘multivariate
time series auto-regression’ using the
statistical software package SPSS.
Historical market size data feeding into each
© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
12
forecast are collated in Mintel’s own market
size database and supplemented by macro-
and socio-economic data sourced from
organisations such as Statistics Canada,
The Bank of Canada, The Conference
Board of Canada and the Economist
Intelligence Unit.
Within the forecasting process, the model
searches for, and analyses relationships
between, actual market sizes and a
selection of key economic and demographic
factors (independent variables) in order to
identify those predictors having the most
influence on the market.
Factors used in a forecast are stated in
the relevant report section alongside an
interpretation of their role in explaining the
development in demand for the product or
market in question.
Qualitative insight
At Mintel we understand that historic data is
limited in its capacity to act as the only force
behind the future state of markets. Thus,
rich qualitative insights from industry experts
regarding past and future events that may
impact the market play a crucial role in our
post statistical modeling evaluation process.
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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
As a result, the Mintel forecast allows for
additional factors or market conditions
outside of the capacity of the data analysis
to impact the market forecast model, using
a rigorous statistical process complemented
by in-depth market knowledge and
expertise.  knowledge of the previous weather condition
The Mintel fan chart
Forecasts of future economic outcomes
are always subject to uncertainty. In order
to raise awareness amongst our clients
and to illustrate this uncertainty, Mintel has
introduced a new way of displaying market
size forecasts in the form of a fan-chart.
Next to historical market sizes and a current
year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the
probability of various outcomes for the
market value/volume over the next five
years.
At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying
that 95 out of 100 times the forecast will
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fall within these outer limits, which we call
the best and worst case forecasts. These,
based on the statistically driven forecast,
are the highest (best case) and lowest
(worst case) market sizes the market is
expected to achieve.
Over the next five years, the widening
bands successively show the developments
that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50%
probability intervals. Statistical processes
predict the central forecast to fall within the
darker shaded area which illustrates 50%
probability, i.e. a 5 in 10 chance.
A general conclusion: Based on our current
knowledge of given historic market size data
as well as projections for key macro- and
socio-economic measures that were used to
create the forecast, we can assume that in
95% of the time the actual market size will
fall within the purple shaded fan. In 5% of all
cases this model might not be correct due
to random errors and the actual market size
will fall out of these boundaries.
© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
13
Weather analogy
To illustrate uncertainty in forecasting in
an everyday example, let us assume the
following weather forecast was produced
based on the meteorologists’ current
during the last few days, atmospheric
observations, incoming weather fronts etc.
Now, how accurate is this forecast and how
certain can we be that the temperature on
Saturday will indeed be 15°C?
To state that the temperature in central
London on Saturday will rise to exactly 15°C
is possible but one can’t be 100% certain
about that fact.
To say the temperature on Saturday will
be between 13°C and 17°C is a broader
statement and much more probable.
In general, we can say that based on the
existing statistical model, one can be 95%
certain that the temperature on Saturday
will be between 13°C and 17°C, and
respectively 50% certain it will be between
about 14.5°C and 15.5°C. Again, only in
5% of all cases this model might not be
correct due to random errors and the actual
temperature on Saturday will fall out of
these boundaries and thus will be below
13°C or above 17°C.
(To learn more about uncertainty in weather
forecasts visit: http://research.metoffice.gov.
uk/research/nwp/ensemble/uncertainty.html)
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