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ME 14 803 OPERATION MANAGEMENT

PRAVEEN RAJ
Assistant Professor
Dept of Mechanical Engineering

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MODULE IV

MAINTENANCE AND REPLACEMENT


&
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

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CONTENTS
Maintenance and Replacement
Preventive and breakdown maintenance – Economic aspects
Replacement of equipment – methods
Project Management
Network techniques for Project management .
Time estimates – Time- Cost tradeoffs.
Crashing.
Resource Smoothening and Resource Leveling
Shortest Route Problem
Minimal Spanning tree problem
Maximal flow in capacitated network

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MAINTENANCE & REPLACEMENT

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INTRODUCTION
What do u mean by an Industry (or) Plant??
Place where men, materials, money, equipment, machinery etc. are brought
together to manufacture a product.

What is Maintenance??
Simply implies the care or upkeep of machinery or property; or the state of
being maintained.

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MAINTENANCE
Maintenance is work that is carried out to preserve an asset, in order to
enable its continued use and function, above a minimum acceptable
level of performance, over its design service life, without unforeseen
renewal or major repair activities

Note that modifications are not maintenance, even though they may
be carried out by maintenance personnel.

Maintenance is a ‘Science’, an ‘art’ & also a ‘philosophy’.


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IMPORTANCE
• Special purpose & highly sophisticated equipment & machinery
plays a vital role in modern industry.

• Their idle or downtime becomes much more expensive.

• It’s vitally important that the plant machinery should be


properly maintained.

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OBJECTIVES
• To keep the maintenance cost per production item produced as low
as possible.
• To keep the quality of the product very high.
• To keep the downtime for critical equipment as low as possible.
• To keep maintenance cost as low as possible for non-critical
equipment.
• To provide and maintain adequate facilities.
• To provide effective and trained supervision
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FUNCTIONS
BASIC FUNCTIONS

a. Replace:

To remove an unserviceable item & install a serviceable counterpart in its place.

b. Repair:

Application of maintenance services, including fault location or trouble


shooting, removal installation & maintenance actions to identify troubles &
restore serviceability to an item by correcting specific damage, fault,
malfunction or failure in a part or system.

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FUNCTIONS
c. Overhaul:

Maintenance actions taken to restore an item to a completely operational


condition as required by maintenance standards.

It is the highest degree of maintenance performed by the industry.

d. Rebuild (Renovation/Reconditioning) :

Those actions necessary for the restoration of an unserviceable equipment to a new


condition in accordance with the original manufacturing standards.

Highest degree of material maintenance applied to any equipment.

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FUNCTIONS
e. Service / Lubricate – operations performed periodically to keep an item in
proper working condition.
f. Inspect / Check – determine the serviceability of an item by comparing its
physical, mechanical or electrical characteristics with the standard values.
g. Test
h. Adjust – setting the operating parameters to specified parameters.
i. Align – to adjust the parameters for optimum performance.
j. Calibrate – to detect & adjust any discrepancy in the accuracy of the
instrument.
k. Measure
l. Winding
m.Install
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FUNCTIONS
Composite Functions
a. Protecting the building, structures & plants
b. Reducing downtimes & increasing equipment availability
c. Analyse repetitive failure & eliminate them.
d. Controlling & directing labour forces.
e. Maximum utilization of available resources.
f. Ensuring safety of installation & reducing environmental pollution.
g. Preparing maintenance budgets
h. Waste reduction & waste recovery.
i. Improving technical communication

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TOTAL MAINTENANCE COST

Total Cost

Cost

Preventive
maintenance cost

Breakdown and
repair cost

Optimum Amount of
preventive maintenance

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TYPES OF MAINTENANCE
1. Breakdown Maintenance.

2. Preventive Maintenance.
1. Periodic Maintenance ( Time based Maintenance - TBM).
2. Predictive Maintenance.
1. Condition Monitoring

3. Corrective Maintenance .

4. Opportunistic Maintenance
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BREAK DOWN MAINTENANCE
Repair is done only after the equipment is out of order & cannot
perform its normal function any longer.
Eg. Puncture of a tyre, broken fan belt, electric motor fails to start.

Suitable only for a small factory where ;


No. of equipments are few.

Equipments are simpler & doesn’t require specialists for maintenance.

When sudden failure will not cause any safety or environmental issues.

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BREAK DOWN MAINTENANCE

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CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE
• Maintenance actions for correcting or restoring a failed unit or a unit
going to fail.
• Includes diff. types of actions like typical adjustments & minor repairs to
redesign of equipment.
• Actions are sub-divided according to priority, as follows:
1) Emergency, high priority work (after stopping the equipment).
2) Deferred or low priority work.
3) Reduce / eliminate repetitive breakdowns.
4) Redesign or reconditioning of equipments, if needed.

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CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE

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OPPORTUNISTIC MAINTENANCE
• Used in multi component systems.
• When an equipment/ system is taken down for maintenance of a worn
out component, that opportunity can be used for maintaining/changing
other worn-out components.
• Very economical in the long run.
• Cost of changing several parts together is much less than the sum of
costs of several separate replacements.
• Eg. Automobile engines – if one valve is worn out & requires
grinding, all other valves are ground in the same shutdown.

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PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
• Preventive maintenance is a schedule of planned maintenance actions
aimed at the prevention of breakdowns and failures.

• The primary goal of preventive maintenance is to prevent the failure


of equipment before it actually occurs.

• It is designed to preserve and enhance equipment reliability by replacing


worn components before they actually fail.

• Include equipment checks, partial or complete overhauls at specified


periods, oil changes, lubrication and so on.

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PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
• In addition, workers can record equipment deterioration so they know to
replace or repair worn parts before they cause system failure.

• Its purpose is to minimize breakdowns and excessive depreciation. Neither


equipment nor facilities should be allowed to go to the breaking point.

• In its simplest form, preventive maintenance can be compared to the


service schedule for an automobile. If the automobile is not maintained
properly, it might break down at an unexpected time. Likewise, when the
machinery in a firm breaks down unexpectedly, it could result in lost
business and halts in production which could be very costly.
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NEED OF PM

• Increased Automation

• Business loss due to production delays

• Production of a higher quality product

• Just-in-time manufacturing

• Need for a more organized, planned environment

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BENEFITS OF PM
Availability of information

Trend tracking

Prevention of sudden failure

Optimizing equipment performance

Managing the manpower

Minimizing the inventory stock

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STEPS IN PM
• Collecting the equipment’s to be maintained and classifying them
• Establishing common standard procedures
• Specifying the tools
• Specifying the spare parts
• Sharing departments
• Manpower
• Time Scheduling and due dates resolution
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PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE

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PERIODIC MAINTENANCE

• Time based maintenance consists of periodically inspecting,

servicing and cleaning equipment and replacing parts to prevent

sudden failure and process problems

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PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE
• This is a method in which the service life of important part is
predicted based on inspection or diagnosis, in order to use the
parts to the limit of their service life.

• Compared to periodic maintenance, predictive maintenance is


condition based maintenance.

• It manages trend values, by measuring and analyzing data about


deterioration.

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PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE
• Comparatively a newer technique.

• Makes use of human senses or other sensitive instruments like Audio


gauges, vibration analyzers, amplitude meters, Pressure, temperature and
resistance strain gauges etc. to predict trouble before the equipment fails.
• Eg. Unusual sound coming out of a rotating equipment predicts a
trouble.
• An electric cable excessively hot at one point predicts a trouble.

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PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE
• Equipment conditions measured periodically or on a continuous
basis.
• Enables maintenance men to take timely actions such as equipment
adjustments, repair or overhaul.
• Extends the service life of an equipment without the fear of failure.
• The condition of equipment could be monitored using Condition
Monitoring, Statistical Process Control techniques, by monitoring
equipment performance, or through the use of the Human Senses.
• The terms Condition Based Maintenance, On-Condition
Maintenance and Predictive Maintenance can be used
interchangeably.
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PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE
• Includes corrosion measurement activities by using ultrasonic test,
radiograph test, Corrosometer etc., that were called “On Stream
Inspection” (OSI), as well as rotating machinery diagnosis activities
using vibration and noise analysis, etc.

• Predictive maintenance indicates generally only the diagnosis, and if


deterioration are detected in diagnosis and consequently overhaul is
requested the execution of repair will be arranged in schedule of
Preventive Maintenance.
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PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE

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CONDITION MONITORING
• Condition monitoring is the process of determining the condition of
machinery while in operation.
• The key to a successful condition monitoring programme includes:
1. Knowing what to listen for
2. How to interpret it
3. When to put this knowledge to use
• Successfully using this programme enables the repair of problem
components prior to failure.
• Condition monitoring not only helps plant personnel reduce the possibility
of catastrophic failure, but also allows them to order parts in advance,
schedule manpower, and plan other repairs during the downtime.
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CONDITION MONITORING

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REPLACEMENT THEORY
• Equipment's and machines used in industries and in military
deteriorate with time, as a result of which their efficiency decreases
and in turn increases their maintenance cost.

• Hence, there arises a need to formulate a replacement policy which


would enable us in deciding the age at which the replacement of the
old equipment by new one is most economical than continuation of
old equipment at an increased maintenance cost.

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REPLACEMENT THEORY

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NEED FOR REPLACEMENT
THEORY

• The item that has become inefficient with passage of Time.

• The item requires more cost for its maintenance as age increases.

• The item doesn't deteriorate with time but suddenly fails.

• A better/ more efficient design of machine/ equipment has become


available in the market.

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WHEN DO WE REPLACE PRODUCTS
OR SERVICES?
PRODUCTS
• Stop working
• Become less efficient
• Start failing more often
• Obsolete/ Out of fashion
SERVICES
• Quality goes down
• Higher cost/ lower value compared to competition
• Inability to adapt to changing needs
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TYPES OF REPLACEMENT
1. Replacement policy for items, efficiency of which declines gradually with time
without change in money value.

2. Replacement policy for items, efficiency of which declines gradually with time
but with change in money value.

3. Replacement policy of items breaking down suddenly

1. Individual replacement policy

2. Group replacement policy

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NOTATIONS USED
C/P – (Capital) Cost of Equipment.

S – Scrap (or Resale) Value.

Ci – Running (or Maintenance) Cost.

∑ci – Cumulative Running Cost.

(C-S) – Depreciation.

T(n) – Total Cost.

A(n) – Average Total Cost


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REPLACEMENT MODEL-1
Maintenance cost increases over time and time value of money remains
constant

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POINT OF LOWEST COST

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EXAMPLE-1
A transport company purchased a motor vehicle for rupees 90000/-. The resale
value of the vehicle keeps on decreasing from Rs 70000/- in the first year to Rs
5000/- in the eighth year while, the running cost in maintaining the vehicle keeps
on increasing with Rs. 3000/- in the first year till it goes to Rs. 20000/- in the
eighth year as shown in the below table. Determine the optimum replacement
policy? Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Scrap value 70000 61000 55000 49000 32000 20000 10000 5000

Running cost 3000 3600 4800 5000 8000 11200 15000 20000

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SOLUTION
C= 90000

YEAR C S Rn ∑ Rn (C-S) TC ATC

[∑ Rn + (C-S)] [TC / YEAR]

1 90000 70000 3000 3000 20000 23000 23000.00


2 90000 61000 3600 6600 29000 35600 17800.00
3 90000 55000 4800 11400 35000 46400 15466.67
4 90000 49000 5000 16400 41000 57400 14350.00
5 90000 32000 8000 24400 58000 82400 16480.00
6 90000 20000 11200 35600 70000 105600 17600.00
7 90000 10000 15000 50600 80000 130600 18657.14
8 90000 5000 20000 70600 85000 155600 19450.00

The average total cost is minimum (Rs 14350/-) at the end of 4th year. Hence
replacement must be made at the end of 4th year.

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REPLACEMENT MODEL-2

Replacement of items whose


maintenance cost increases
with time and the money value
changes at a constant rate

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EXAMPLE
A milk plant is offered an equipment A which is priced at Rs.60,000 and
the costs of operation and maintenance are estimated to be Rs.10,000 for
each of the first 5 years, increasing every year by Rs. 3000 per year in the
sixth and subsequent years. If money carries the rate of interest 10% per
annum what would the optimal replacement period?

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SOLUTION
Operating Discounted Discounted Cumulative Discounted total Cumulative Weighted
At the end of & factor operation & Discounted cost discounted average annual
year maintenanc v n-1 = maintenance operation & factor cost From Table we find
(n) e cost (1/1+r)n-1 cost maintenance
cost
Rn the weighted cost is
(1) (2) (3) (4)=(2)x(3) (5) (6)=(5)+60000 (7) (8)=(6)/(7) minimum at the

1 10000 1.0000 10000.00 10000.00 70000.00 1.00 70000.00 end of 8th year,
2 10000 0.9091 9091.00 19091.00 79091.00 1.91 41428.42
3 10000 0.8264 8264.00 27355.00 87355.00 2.74 31933.83
hence the
4 10000 0.7513 7513.00 34868.00 94868.00 3.49 27207.75
5 10000 0.6830 6830.00 41698.00 101698.00 4.17 24389.18
equipment should
6 13000 0.6209 8071.70 49769.70 109769.70 4.79 22913.08
be replaced at the
7 16000 0.5645 9032.00 58801.70 118801.70 5.36 22184.36
8 19000 0.5132 9750.80 68552.50 128552.50 5.87 21905.89
end of 8th year.
9 22000 0.4665 10263.00 78815.50 138815.50 6.33 21912.82
10 25000 0.4241 10602.50 89418.00 149418.00 6.76 22106.52

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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

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PROJECT
• A project is an endeavor to create a unique product or service.

• It is specific, timely, usually multi-disciplinary and always conflict-


ridden.

• Projects are a part of an overall programme and are broken down


into well-defined set of tasks (Jobs), subtasks and further if
desired, all of which must be completed within a specified time,
along with minimum cost.

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PROJECT
• Examples of projects include, construction of a bridge, highway, power
plant, repair and maintenance of an oil refinery or an air plane; design.
Development and marketing of a new product, research and
development work, etc.
• Such projects involve a large number of interrelated activities (or tasks)
that must be completed in a specified time, in a specified sequence (or
order) and require resources such as personnel, money, materials,
facilities and/or space.
• The main objective before starting any project is to schedule the
required activities in an efficient manner so as to complete it on or
before a specified time limit at a minimum cost of its completion
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PROJECT
• A Project consist of interrelated activities which are to be
executed in a certain order before the entire task is completed.
• The activities are interrelated in a logical sequence called
precedence relationship.
• A particular activity of a project cannot be started until all its
immediate preceding activities are completed.

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PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project management is the practice of
initiating, planning, executing, controlling,
and closing the work of a team to achieve
specific goals and meet specific success
criteria at the specified time.
In general, project management consists of
three phases.
1. Project planning phase
2. Scheduling phase
3. Project control phase

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PROJECT PLANNING PHASE
In order to visualize the sequencing or precedence requirements of
the activities in a project, it is helpful to draw a network diagram.
STEPS
a. Identify various activities (task or work elements) to be performed in the
project, that is, develop a breakdown structure (WBS).
b. Determine the requirement of resources such as men, materials, machines,
money, etc., for carrying out activities listed above.
c. Assign responsibility for each work package.
d. Allocate resources to work packages.
e. Estimate cost and time at various levels of project completion.
f. Develop work performance criteria.
g. Establish control channels for project personnel.

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PROJECT SCHEDULING PHASE
It prepares an analysis/estimate of the likelihood of the project to be
completed on or before the specified time.
STEPS
a. Identify all people who will be responsible for each task.
b. Estimate the expected duration(s) of each activity, taking into consideration
the resources required for their execution in the most economic manner.
c. Specify the interrelationship (i.e. precedence relationship) among various
activities.
d. Develop a network diagram, showing the sequential interrelationship between
various activities.
e. Based on these time estimates, calculate the total project duration, identify
critical path; calculate floats; carry out resources smoothing (or levelling)
exercise for critical (or search) resources, taking into account the resource
constraints (if any).
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PROJECT CONTROL PHASE

Project control refers to the evaluation of the actual progress


(status) against the plan.

If significant differences are observed, then the scheduling and


resource allocation decisions are changed in order to update and
revise the uncompleted pan of the project.

In other words, remedial (modifying planning) or reallocation of


resources (cost minimization) measures are adopted in such cases.
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

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NETWORK ANALYSIS
• NA is the core technique for project planning and controlling.

• It acts as a network management tool for breaking down projects into


components or individual activities and recording the result on a flow
chart or network diagram.

• Important network techniques used for project planning and control are
1. Critical Path Method (CPM) and
2. Programme Evaluation and Review Techniques (PERT)
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NETWORK DIAGRAM
Events in the network diagram represent project milestones, such
as the start or the completion of an activity (task) or activities, and
occur at a particular instant of time at which some specific part of
the project has been or is to be achieved.
Events are commonly represented by circles (nodes) in the
network diagram.
The events can be further classified into the following two
categories:
1. Merge Events
2. Burst Events

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TYPES OF EVENTS
Merge Event : An event which represents the joint completion of
more than one activity is known as a merge event.

Burst Event :An event that has represents the initiation


(beginning) of more than one activity is known as burst event.

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ACTIVITY
Activities in network diagram represent project operations or tasks to be
conducted. As such each activity except dummy activates requires resources and
takes a certain amount of time for completion.
An arrow is commonly used to represent an activity with its head indicating the
directions of progress in the project.
Activities are identified by the numbers of their starting (tail or initial) event and
ending (head or terminal) event.
Activities can be further classified into the following three categories.
1. Predecessor Activity
2. Successor Activity
3. Dummy Activity

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TYPES OF ACTIVITY
1. Predecessor Activity : An activity which must be completed before
one or more other activities start is known as predecessor activity.
2. Successor activity : An activity which starts immediately after one or
more of other activities are completed is known as successor activity.
3. Dummy activity : An activity which does not consume either any
resources and/or time is known as dummy activity.
A dummy activity in the network id added only to establish the given
precedence relationship among activities of the project.
It is needed when
1. Two or more parallel activates in a project have same head and tail
events.
2. Two or more activities have some (but not all) of their immediate
predecessor activities in common.
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CLASSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY

1. Critical activities: These are activities which ,if consumed


more than their estimated time the project will be delayed.
2. Non Critical activity: Provision of float or slack so that even
if they consume a specified time over and above the estimated
time the project will not be delayed.
3. Dummy Activities: When two activities start at the same
time (Say A and B) the head events are joined dotted arrows
called dummy activities.
• Its however complete the logical concept, but do not
consume any time or resources.

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EXAMPLE

• Start machine installation : An event


• Machine installation : An activity
• Completion of machine installation: An event

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NETWORK DIAGRAM
1. Arrow  An arrow leads from
tail to head directionally
• Indicate ACTIVITY, a time
consuming effort that is required
to perform a part of the work which
has a definite start and finish.
2. Nodes  A node is
represented by a circle.
• Indicate EVENT, a point in time
where one or more activities start
and/or finish. (It consumes neither
time nor resources)
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NETWORK DIAGRAM
Network models use the following two types of precedence network to
show precedence requirements of the activities in the project.
AON (Activity–on-Node) Network :
In this type of precedence network each node (or circle)
represents a specific task while the arcs represent the ordering
between tasks.
AON network diagrams place the activities within the nodes, and
the arrows are used to indicate sequencing requirements.
Generally these diagrams have no particular starting and ending
nodes for the whole project.
The lack of dummy activities in these diagrams always make
them easier to draw and interpret.
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NETWORK DIAGRAM
AOA (Activity–on-Arrow) Network :
In this type of precedence network at each end of the activity
arrow is a node. These nodes represent points in times or instants,
when an activity is starting or ending.
The arrows itself represents the passage of time required for that
activity to be performed.

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RULES FOR AOA NETWORK CONSTRUCTION

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RULES FOR CONSTRUCTING
NETWORK DIAGRAM
1. In network diagram, arrows represent activities and circles the events.
The length of an arrow is of no significance.
2. Each activity should be represented only by one arrow and must start
and end in a circle called event. The tail of an activity represents the,
and head the completion of work.
3. The event numbered 1 denotes the start of the project and is called
“initial event”. All activities emerging (or taking off)from event 1
should not be preceded by any other activity or activities. An event
carrying the highest number denotes the completion event. A network
should have only one initial event and only one terminal event.
(Procedure for numbering the events using Fulkerson's Rule)
4. The general rule for numbering the event is that the head event should
always be numbered such that for each activity (i,j), i < j.
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RULES FOR CONSTRUCTING
NETWORK DIAGRAM
5. An activity must be uniquely identified by its starting and completion event,
which implies that:
a.An event number should not get repeated or duplicated.
b.Two activities should not be identified by the same completion event.
c.Activities must be represented either by their symbols or by the
corresponding ordered pair of Starting - completion events.
6. The logical sequence (or interrelationship) between activities must follow these
rules:
a. An event cannot occur until all its incoming activities have been completed.
b. An activity cannot start unless all the preceding activities, on which it
depends, have been completed.
c.Though a dummy activity does not consume either any resource of time,
even then it has to follow the rules 6 (a) and (b)
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EXAMPLE

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SOLUTION

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EXAMPLE-2

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SOLUTION

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EXAMPLE-3

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SOLUTION

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EXAMPLE - 4

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NETWORK ANALYSIS METHODS
PERT and CPM are two methods for network analysis.
1. Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was developed in 1956-58 by a
research team to help in the planning and scheduling of the US Navy's Polaris
Nuclear Submarine Missile project, which involved thousands of activities.
The objective of the team was to efficiently plan and develop the Polaris missile
system. Since 1958, this technique has proved to be useful for all jobs or projects
that have an element of uncertainty in the estimation of duration, as is the case
with new types of projects the likes of which have never been taken up before.
2. Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed by E.L. DuPont company along with
Remington Rand Corporation.
The aim behind its development was to provide a technique for the control of the
maintenance of company's chemical plants. In course of time, the use of CPM was
extended to the field of cost and resource allocation.

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CPM & PERT

Both are Quantitative Techniques of


Network Analysis

Both are used as tools for Decision


Making

Both involve drawing & analysis of


Network Diagram on various scores

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SIX STEPS IN CPM/PERT
1. Define the project and all of its significant activities or tasks.
2. Develop the relationships among the activities. Decide which
activities must precede others.
3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities.
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.
5. Compute the longest time path through the network; this is
called the critical path.
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the
project.

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CRITICAL PATH
• The critical path is

• Determined by adding the times for the activities in each sequence.

• Determining the longest path in the project.

• The critical path determines the total calendar time required for the project.

• If activities outside the critical path speed up or slow down (within limits),
the total project time does not change.

• The amount of time that a non – critical path activity can be


delayed without the project is referred to as a slack time.

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CRITICAL PATH
The Critical Path is the longest path through the network

To find the critical path, we need to determine the following:

1. Earliest start time (EST): earliest time an activity can begin

2. Earliest finish time (EFT): the earliest time an activity can end

3. Latest start time (LST): latest time an activity can begin

4. Latest finish time (LFT): latest time an activity can end


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CRITICAL PATH
FORWARD PASS
Earliest start time = Largest of the earliest finish times of
immediate predecessors
EST= Largest EFT of immediate predecessors
Earliest finish time = Earliest start time + Expected activity time
EFT = EST+ t
BACKWARD PASS
Latest start time = Latest finish time - Activity time
LST = LFT - t
Latest finish time = Smallest of latest start times for following
activities.
LFT= Smallest LST of following activities.

Slack = LST - EST, or Slack = LFT- EFT


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FLOAT / SLACK
Float / Slack : Float of an activity represents the excess of available
time over its duration.
Total Float (Ft) : The amount of time by which the completion of an
activity could be delay beyond the earliest expected completion time
without affecting the overall project duration.
i.e. Tf= (Latest start-Earliest start)
for activity(i-j), or, (Tf)ij=(LS)jj-(ES)ij
Free Float (Ff) : The time by which the completion of an activity can
be delayed beyond the earliest finish time without affecting the earliest
start of a subsequent (succeeding) activities.

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CRITICAL PATH METHOD
(CPM)
CPM differ from PERT only in approach to the network analysis.

CPM calculates the longest path of planned activities to logical end


points or to the end of the project, and the earliest and latest that
each activity can start and finish without making the project longer.

In PM a critical path is the sequence of project network activities


which add up to the longest overall duration.

This determines the shortest time possible to complete the project


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CPM
In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships
using activity-on-node network construction
• Single estimate of activity time
• Deterministic activity times

CPM is used for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the activity time
estimates can be predicted with considerable certainty due to the existence
of past experience.
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PROJECT EVALUATION AND REVIEW
TECHNIQUE (PERT)
• The Program ( or Project) Evaluation and Review Technique commonly
abbreviated as PERT
• It’s a statistical tool used in PM .
• Its designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a
given project.
• PERT used for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work).
• In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships
using activity-on-arrow network construction
• Multiple time estimates
• Probabilistic activity times

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TIME ESTIMATES
A distinguishing feature of PERT.
 Its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity completion time.
Optimistic time(tO)
 The shortest time in which the activity can be completed.
 To specify optimistic time to be three standards deviations
from the mean.
Most likely time(tM)
 The completion time having the highest probability.
Pessimistic time (tP)
 The maximum possible time required to accomplish a task,
assuming everything goes wrong (but excluding major
catastrophes).
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TIME ESTIMATES
PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates.
Estimated Time(tE)
 The best estimate of the time required to accomplish a task,
accounting for the fact that things don't always proceed as
normal.
𝒕𝑶 + 𝟒𝒕𝑴 + 𝒕𝒑
𝒕𝑬 =
𝟔
 Standard Deviation (σ)

𝒕𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝝈=
𝟔
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PROBABILITY COMPUTATION

Determine probability that project is


completed within specified time

Where
μ= tp = Expected project completion time
σ= S.D along the critical path
Normal Distribution of Project Time
x = (proposed ) specified time (ts)

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PROJECT CRASHING
The project can be accelerated
by adding the resources
required to decrease the time
for the activities in the critical
path.
Shortening of the project
sometimes is referred to as
Project Crashing.
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PROJECT CRASHING
Crashing a project start with using the normal time to create the
critical path.

The normal cost is the cost for completing the activity using normal
procedures. If the project will not meet the required deadline,
extraordinary measures must be taken.

The crash time is the shortest possible activity time and will require
additional resources. The crash cost is the price of completing the
activity in the earlier-than- normal time.

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TIME-COST RELATIONSHIP
• Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases.
• Indirect costs increase as project duration increases.
• Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect
costs.

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STEPS TO PROJECT CRASHING
1. Find the normal critical path and identify the critical activities.

2. Get the crash cost per time period for all activities in the network with
this formula:
Crash cost/Time period = Crash cost - Normal cost
Normal time - Crash time
3. Select smallest crash cost per week on the critical path and crash this to
the maximum extent possible or to the point at which your desired
deadline has been reached.
4. Check to be sure that the critical path you were crashing is still critical.
If it is still the longest path through the network, return to step 3. If not,
find the new critical path and return to step 2.
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EXAMPLE-1
Cables By ITD is bringing a new product on line to be manufactured in their
current facility in existing space. The owners have identified 11 activities and
their precedence relationships. Develop an AON for the project.

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SOLUTION
Network Diagram for Cables By ITD

Add Deterministic Time Estimates and


Connected Paths

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SOLUTION
• Calculate the Project Completion Times

• The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the project’s duration (project


cannot finish in less time than its longest path)
• ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path

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EXAMPLE-2
A project schedule has the following characteristics as shown in Table.
a. Construct network diagram.
b. Compute TE and TL for each activity.
c. Find the critical path.

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SOLUTION

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SOLUTION

Activities 1 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 10 are critical activities as their floats are zero

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EXAMPLE - 3
The following are the six activities in a small scale industrial unit.
Draw the network diagram and calculate EST,LST,EFT,LFT and
float. Mark the critical path and find the total project duration.
Activity Time (days) Immediate
Predecessor
A 5 -
B 6 A
C 5 B
D 4 A
E 3 D
F 4 C,E

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SOLUTION

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SOLUTION
ACTIVITY DURATION EST LST= EFT = LFT FLOAT = REMARKS
(TE) LFT- TE EST + TE LST-EST
1-2 (A) 5 0 0 5 5 0 CRITICAL

2-3 (B) 6 5 5 11 11 0 CRITICAL

3-5 (C) 5 11 11 16 16 0 CRITICAL

2-4 (D) 4 5 9 9 13 4 NON-CRITICAL

4-5 (E) 3 9 13 12 16 4 NON-CRITICAL

5-6 (F) 4 16 16 20 20 0 CRITICAL

The critical path is 1-2-3-5-6


Total project duration = 20 days

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EXAMPLE - 4
A project schedule has the following characteristics. Construct a
network and find the critical path, total duration of the project and
various time estimate.
Activity Duration (days)
1-2 3
1-4 2
1-7 1
2-3 3
3-6 2
4-5 4
4-8 6
5-6 5
6-9 4
7-8 4
8-9 5
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SOLUTION

The critical path is 1-4-5-6-9


Total project duration = 15 days
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SOLUTION
ACTIVITY DURATION EST LST= EFT = LFT FLOAT = REMARKS
(TE) LST- TE EST + TE LST-EST

1-2 3 0 3 3 6 3 -

1-4 2 0 0 2 2 0 CRITICAL

1-7 1 0 5 1 6 5 -

2-3 3 3 6 6 9 3 -

3-6 2 6 9 8 11 3 -

4-5 4 2 2 6 6 0 CRITICAL

4-8 6 2 4 8 10 2 -

5-6 5 6 6 11 11 0 CRITICAL

6-9 4 11 11 15 15 0 CRITICAL

7-8 4 1 6 5 10 5 -

8-9 5 8 10 13 15 2 -

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EXAMPLE-5
A small engineering project consist of six activities. The three time estimates in
no of days for each activity are given below.
1. Calculate the expected time(TE),Standard deviation and variance for each activity.
2. Draw the network diagram, identify the cortical path and total duration of project.

Time (days)
Activity
to tm tp
1-2 2 5 8
2-3 1 1 1
3-5 0 6 18
5-6 7 7 7
1-4 3 3 3
4-5 2 8 14

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SOLUTION

Activity to tm tp te 𝝈 𝝈𝟐

1-2 2 5 8 5 1 1
2-3 1 1 1 1 0 0

3-5 0 6 18 7 3 9

5-6 7 7 7 7 0 0
1-4 3 3 3 3 0 0
𝒕𝑶 + 𝟒𝒕𝑴 + 𝒕𝒑 𝒕𝒑 − 𝒕𝒐
𝒕𝑬 = 𝝈= 4-5 2 8 14 8 2 4
𝟔 𝟔

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SOLUTION
DURATION LST= EFT = FLOAT =
ACTIVITY EST LFT REMARKS
(TE) LST- TE EST + TE LST-EST
1-2 5 0 0 5 5 0 CRITICAL

2-3 1 5 5 6 6 0 CRITICAL

3-5 7 6 6 13 13 0 CRITICAL

5-6 7 13 13 20 20 0 CRITICAL

1-4 3 0 2 3 5 2 NON-CRITICAL

4-5 8 3 5 11 13 2 NON-CRITICAL

The critical path is 1-2-3-5-6


Total project duration = 20 days

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EXAMPLE - 6
For the network shown below the three time estimates (in days) for
each activity are indicated on the diagram. Determine
1. The expected time and variance of each activity and the critical path.
2. The probability of completing the project in 32 days

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SOLUTION
The probability of completing the project in
32 days
𝜎 2 𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑡ℎ = 4 + 9 + 9 = 22
So,Standrad deviation = 22 = 4.69

𝑻𝒔 −𝑻𝒆
Z=
𝝈
Ts = 32 days
Te = 30 days
Z = 0.42
The critical path is 1-2-4-5
P (x≤32) = P (Z ≤0.42)
Total project duration = 30 days = 0.5+0.1628
= 66.28 %
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SOLUTION
DURATION LST= EFT = FLOAT =
ACTIVITY EST LFT VARIANCE
(TE) LFT- TE EST + TE LST-EST

1-2 10 0 0 10 10 0 4

1-3 9 0 2 9 11 2 4

2-4 9 10 10 19 19 0 9

3-4 8 9 11 17 19 2 6.25

4-5 11 19 19 30 30 0 9

2-5 7 10 23 17 30 13 1

3-5 5 9 25 14 30 16 1

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EXAMPLE - 7
Figure shows the network for a construction project with three time estimates of
each activity. Determine
1. Critical path and S.D
2. Probability of completion of the project in 40 days
3. The duration that will provide 95% probability of completion time.

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SOLUTION

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SOLUTION
DURATION LST= EFT = FLOAT =
ACTIVITY EST LFT VARIANCE REMARKS
(TE) LST- TE EST + TE LST-EST

1-2 5 0 0 5 5 0 1 CRITICAL

2-3 12 5 5 17 17 0 4 CRITICAL

3-4 0 17 17 17 17 0 0 CRITICAL

2-4 8 5 9 13 17 4 4 -

2-5 10 5 9 15 19 4 7.11 -

4-6 10 17 17 27 27 0 1 CRITICAL

5-6 8 15 19 23 27 4 5.44 -

3-7 6 17 25 23 31 8 2.78 -

6-7 4 27 27 31 31 0 1.79 CRITICAL

7-8 4 31 31 35 35 0 0.44 CRITICAL


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SOLUTION
a. Critical Path : 1-2-3-4-6-7-8
Total duration of the project : 35 days
d. For 95 % probability
b. 𝜎 2 along critical path : 1+4+0+1+1+1.77+0.44 =
Z = 0.95-0.5 = 0.45,From Z-table Z = 1.65
8.21
So,Standrad deviation = 8.21 = 2.86 𝑻𝒔 −𝑻𝒆
Z= ,
𝝈
c. The probability of completing the project in 40 days

𝑻𝒔 −𝑻𝒆 Ts =Z 𝝈+Te
Z=
𝝈
Ts = 40 days and Te = 35 days = 1.65 *2.86+35

Z = 1.742
=39.72 days
P (x≤ 𝟒𝟎) = P (Z ≤ 1.742)
= 0.5+0.4591
= 95.91 % =40days

28-02-2018 OM_PRJ 115


EXAMPLE - 8
A project consist of a series of tasks labeled A,B…H,I with the following
constaints,A<D,E ;D<F;C<G;B<H;F,G<I; (W<X,Y means that X and Y cannot
start until W is completed.)
a. Construct a network diagram
b. Find the minimum time to complete the project

Task A B C D E F G H I

Time (days) 23 8 20 16 24 18 19 4 10

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SOLUTION

The critical path is 1-2-3-5-6


Total project duration = 67 days
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SOLUTION
DURATION LST= EFT = FLOAT =
ACTIVITY EST LFT REMARKS
(TE) LST- TE EST + TE LST-EST

1-2 (A) 23 0 0 23 23 0 CRITICAL

1-3 (B) 8 0 31 8 39 31 -

1-4 (C) 20 0 18 20 38 18 -

2-3 (D) 16 23 23 39 39 0 CRITICAL

2-6 (E) 24 23 43 47 67 20 -

3-5 (F) 18 39 39 57 57 0 CRITICAL

3-6 (G) 19 39 63 43 67 24 -

4-5 (H) 4 20 38 39 57 18 -

5-6 (I) 10 57 57 67 67 0 CRITICAL

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PROJECT CRASHING:
EXAMPLE-9
The data on normal time, cost and crash time ,cost associated with a project are shown below.
Indirect cost is Rs.50/week.
a. Draw the network diagram or the project and identify the critical path.
b. What are the normal project duration and the associated cost.
c. Find out the total float associated with non critical activities.
d. Crash the relevant activities determine the optimal project completion time and cost.
Normal Crash
Activity
Time (weeks) Cost (Rs.) Time (weeks) Cost (Rs.)
1-2 3 300 2 400
2-3 3 30 3 30
2-4 7 420 5 582
2-5 9 720 7 810
3-5 5 250 4 300
4-5 0 0 0 0
5-6 6 320 4 410
6-7 4 400 3 470
6-8 13 780 10 900
7-8 10 1000 9 1200
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SOLUTION

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SOLUTION
• The critical path is 1-2-5-6-7-8

• Normal project duration = 32 Weeks

• The total cost associated with normal project duration = Direct Cost + Indirect Cost

= 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 + 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡

= 4220 + 32*50

= Rs 5820/-

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SOLUTION
DURATION LST= LST- EFT = EST FLOAT =
ACTIVITY EST LFT REMARKS
(TE) TE + TE LST-EST

1-2 3 4 0 3 3 0 CRITICAL

2-3 3 3 4 6 7 1 NON-CRITICAL

2-4 7 3 5 10 12 2 NON-CRITICAL

2-5 9 3 3 12 12 0 CRITICAL

3-5 5 6 7 11 12 1 NON-CRITICAL
4-5 0 10 12 10 12 2 NON-CRITICAL

5-6 6 12 12 18 18 0 CRITICAL

6-7 4 18 18 22 22 0 CRITICAL

6-8 13 18 19 31 32 1 NON-CRITICAL

7-8 10 22 22 32 32 0 CRITICAL

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CRASHING
 The minimum value of cost slope is 45 for
For the critical activities the cost slope
activity (2-5) and (5-6)
and crash limit can be as follows.
 Let us select activity 2-5 for crashing by 2
CRASH COST PER weeks from 9 to 7 weeks.
WEEK CRASH LIMIT=
ACTIVITY
𝐂 𝐍 𝐍𝐓 − 𝐂𝐓  If we reduce it by 1 week another path 1-
COST SLOPE = 𝐂 − 𝐂
𝐍𝐓 −𝐂𝐓

1-2 400−300 1 2-3-5-6-7-8 also become critical.


= 100
3−2
 So reduce it by 1 week and redraw the
2-5 𝟖𝟏𝟎−𝟕𝟐𝟎
= 45 2
𝟗−𝟕 network with crashing of activity 2-5.
5-6 𝟒𝟏𝟎−𝟑𝟐𝟎
= 45 2 Crashed Total Cost =
𝟔−𝟒 Total Direct Normal Cost +Increased direct
6-7 470−400
= 70 1 Cost due to crashing of activity (2−5) + Indirect
4−3 cost for 31 weeks.
7-8 1200−1000 1
= 200 = 4220 + 1*45 + 31 * 50
10−9
= 𝑹𝒔 𝟓𝟖𝟏𝟓/−
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CRASHING

The two critical path are 1-2-5-6-7-8 and 1-2-3-5-6-7-8

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CRASHING
For the revised network the possibilities of crashing are
CRASH COST PER WEEK CRASH LIMIT=
ACTIVITY 𝐂 𝐂 − 𝐍𝐂
REMARKS
COST SLOPE = 𝐍𝐓 − 𝐂𝐓
𝐍𝐓 −𝐂𝐓

400−300
1-2 = 100 1
3−2
2-5 x - Crashed
2-3 0 0
300−250
3-5 = 50 1
5−4
𝟒𝟏𝟎−𝟑𝟐𝟎
5-6 = 45 2 Lowest cost slope
𝟔−𝟒
470−400
6-7 = 70 1
4−3
1200−1000
7-8 = 200 1
10−9

Activity 5-6 can be crashed by 2 weeks from 6 to 4 weeks and the updated network diagram can
be drawn
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CRASHING

x x

The critical path remain unchanged as activity 5-6 is common to both.


Crashed Total Cost =
Total Direct Normal Cost +Increased direct Cost due to crashing of activity (2−5) + Indirect cost for 29 weeks.
= 4220 +(1*45 +2*45) + 29*50
= Rs 5805/-
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CRASHING
For the revised network the possibilities of crashing are
CRASH COST PER WEEK CRASH LIMIT=
ACTIVITY 𝐂 𝐂 − 𝐍𝐂
REMARKS
COST SLOPE = 𝐍𝐓 − 𝐂𝐓
𝐍𝐓 −𝐂𝐓

400−300
1-2 = 100 1
3−2
2-5 x - Crashed
No crashing
2-3 0 0
required(Dummy activity)
300−250
3-5 = 50 1 Activity on new CP
5−4

5-6 x 2 Crashed
𝟒𝟕𝟎−𝟒𝟎𝟎
6-7 = 70 1 Lowest cost slope
𝟒−𝟑
1200−1000
7-8 = 200 1
10−9

The further crashing of activity 6-7 from 4 weeks to 3 weeks will result in increased direct
cost than gain due to reduction in project time. Hence terminate crashing
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CRASHING

Crashed Total Cost = Total Direct Normal Cost +Increased direct Cost due to crashing of activity (6−7) +
Indirect cost for 28 weeks.
= 4220 +(1*45 +2*45+1*70) + 28*50
= Rs 5825/-
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CRASHING SCHEDULE
DIRECT COST
CRASHING
(Rs) INDIRECT TOTAL
PROJECT ACTIVIT
COST COST
DURATION &
(Rs) (Rs)
WEEK NORMAL CRASHING TOTAL

32 nil 4220 nil 4220 32*50=1600 5820

31 2-5 (1) 4220 1*45=45 4265 31*50=1550 5815

29 5-6 (2) 4220 45+2*45=135 4355 29*50=1450 5805

28 6-7 (1) 4220 135+1*70 = 205 4425 28*50=1400 5825

The Optimal project duration is 29 days with cost of Rs 5805/-

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RESOURCE SMOOTHING
• Resource Smoothing (Loading)- analysis aims to reduce peak demand
for resources and reallocating among activities of a project in a manner
so that the total project duration remains shortest.

• Time is constraint but resources are not the constraints.

• Period of max. demand for resources are identified and non critical
activities are staggered by re scheduling them according to the floats for
balancing resource requirements

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RESOURCE SMOOTHING
• A technique that adjusts the activities of a schedule model such that the
requirements for resources on the project do not exceed certain
predefined resource limits.

• In resource smoothing, as opposed to resource leveling, the project’s


critical path is not changed and the completion date may not be delayed.

• In other words, activities may only be delayed within their free and total
float. Thus resource smoothing may not be able to optimize all resources.

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RESOURCE LEVELING
• This analysis aims at stabilization of rate of resource utilization by
various activities at different times without changing the project
duration.

• Resources are constraints while time is in plenty.

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RESOURCE LEVELLING
Resource levelling is a project management technique used to examine unbalanced
use of resources (usually people or equipment) over time, and for resolving over-
allocations or conflicts.

Two Main approaches of Resource Levelling:

Time-constrained approach – In this case importance will be given on


completing the project within a specified (imposed) date.

Resource-constrained approach – In this approach, the project must be


completed with limited available resources even if this means extending the
project duration.
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RESOURCE LEVELING
• A technique in which start and finish dates are adjusted based on resource
constraints with the goal of balancing demand for resources with the available
supply.

• Resource leveling can be used when shared or critically required resources are
only available at certain times, or in limited quantities, or over-allocated, such as
when a resource has been assigned to two or more activities during the same
time period or to keep resource usage at a constant level.

• Resource leveling can often cause the original critical path to change, usually to
increase.
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MINIMUM SPANNING TREE

• Given a connected, undirected graph, a spanning tree of that graph

is a sub graph which is a tree and connects all the vertices together.

• A single graph can have many different spanning trees.

• A minimum spanning tree is then a spanning tree with weight less

than or equal to the weight of every other spanning tree.

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MINIMUM SPANNING TREE

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OM _PRJ

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