Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines Gives Notice to
Terminate Visiting Forces
Agreement with the U.S.
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 11, 2020
We respectfully request your views on the decision of the Duterte government to
notify today the U.S. government, through its embassy in Manila, of its decision to
terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement. Do you see this materializing, or is the
Philippines only trying to seek a platform to discuss the matter and negotiate a better
deal with the U.S.? Indeed, if the VFA is terminated, what are its impacts, not only in
the Philippines, but also in the region?
ANSWER: President Rodrigo Duterte has set two deadlines that impact on bilateral
defence relations with the United States. The first is a deadline of one month for the
United States to reverse its cancellation of a visa for Senator Dela Rose to visit the U.S.
This deadline will be reached around the third week of February,
The second deadline set by Duterte is formal notice of termination of the Visiting
Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States. This notice was formally presented to
the U.S. Embassy in Manila on 11 February. This notice will come into effect in 180
days.
After the cancellation of Senator Dela Rosa’s visit the U.S. advised the Senator to
reapply according to media reports. This indicates that there may be some room for
compromise and this in turn could impact on Duterte’s decision to terminate the VFA.
Six months is a long period of time giving both parties ample opportunity to settle this
matter without terminating the VFA. President Duterte has a well-established track
record for posturing and u-turns on public threats he has made, both in respect to the
United States and China.
President Duterte is also deeply distrustful of relations with the United States and is
hyper-sensitive to what he perceives as slights to Philippine sovereignty. The formal
notification of termination of the VFA marks a significant departure from anti-
American rhetoric to action that could result in the abrogation of the Mutual Defense
Treaty between the Philippines and the United States.
There are straws in the wind that suggest President Duterte could be dissuaded from
his present course of action. President Donald Trump could personally intervene and
direct that Senator Dela Rosa be issued a visa to the U.S.
The United States is not a unitary actor in relations with the Philippines. Members of
the U.S. Congress have not only criticized Duterte for extra-judicial killings in the
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course of his anti-drug campaign, including passing a non-binding resolution in the

U.S. Senate, but have put a visa ban into U.S. legislation. President Trump has shown
no signs of disapproval of Duterte’s anti-drug campaign but even praised Duterte for
doing an ”unbelievable job on the drug problem” in a telephone conversation in April
2017. In that conversation Trump issued a personal invitation to Duterte to visit The
White House.
The termination of the VFA would remove the legal basis for the temporary
deployment of U.S. forces in the Philippines, including naval port visits. This would
immediately affect nearly three hundred activities and exercises that take place in the
Philippines annually as well as the temporary deployment of Philippine military
officers to the U.S. for professional military education and training. The knock-on
effect would impact negatively on the professionalism of the Armed Forces of the
Philippines and their interoperability with U.S. military forces because the VFA also
covers the temporary entry and exit of U.S. military equipment.
If the VFA were terminated it is likely the next casuality would by the Enhanced
Defence Cooperation Agreement and ultimately the Mutual Defense Treaty itself.
The termination of the VFA would have a negative if not shattering impact on regional
security in Southeast Asia. ASEAN members publicly and privately count on a U.S.
military presence to counter-balance China. The termination of the VFA would lead to
a marked reduction in U.S. military presence especially in the South China/West
Philippine Sea. The Philippines once again would be “an orphan” in the region as it
was in the early 199Os when the Philippines declined to renew leases for U.S. bases in
the Philippines. The expulsion of the U.S. led to China’s occupation of Mischief Reef in
1995.
Any rupture in Philippine-United States relations would also undermine ASEAN unity
and ASEAN’s centrality in the region’s security architecture. Irritants in Philippines-
U.S. relations during the Obama Administration led Duterte to absent himself from
an ASEAN-US leaders’ meeting. Similarly, irritants this year led Duterte to decline an
invitation to attend a Special U.S.-ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in mid-March.
President Duterte’s decision not to attend the US-ASEAN Leaders’ Special Meeting
this year, and his various threats to take action against the United States, will further
undermine bilateral defence and political relations between two supposed treaty
allies. These developments expose the deep sense of mistrust Duterte has for the
United States.
It should be noted that a rupture of the alliance is not a forgone conclusion, however.
The Philippines could be represented by its Secretary of Foreign Affairs at the Las
Vegas Special Meeting. Senator Dela Rosa has already be asked to apply for a new visa
so there is a possibility of a compromise.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines Gives Notice to Terminate Visiting

Forces Agreement with the U.S.,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 11,
2020. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.