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m a r k e t o v e rv i e w | April | 2010
www.colliers.com/philippines
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
economic indicators
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
makati cbd 258,070 - 281,358 262,000 - 284,200 - 1.24% 252,500 - 287,500 0.11%
ortigas center 91,000 - 150,000 92,678 - 154,757 - 2.60% 92,263-153,520 1.98%
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
LICENSE TO SELL
For the first quarter of the year, a total of 57,419 units received
licenses to sell issued by the HLURB. This represents a 56% decline
in the number of units compared to the same period last year. This
decline is expected as HLURB licenses to sell represent a lagging HLURB License to Sell
indicator of the number of projects launched in the last six months. 12-Month Moving Average
The drop in licenses issued reflects the wait-and-see attitude of
developers and real estate builders even through the second half
of 2009 after a lackluster first half performance of the residential
and commercial sectors. The moving 12-month average number of
licenses issued has been on a decline since its peak of 128,042 units
in 1Q09 to 88,180 units in 1Q10.
• For 1Q10, the socialized housing segment received licenses Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
to sell for 11,986 units, fewer by 11.1% compared to the same
period last year. On the other hand, the low cost housing
segment received licenses for 17,000 units. Projects in this
segment include Greenplace Homes with 541 lots in Imus,
Cavite, Lessandra Bacoor 3 with 367 units in Bacoor, Cavite,
and Metroville Complex with 363 units in Binan, Laguna.
forecast office supply
Supply
While more than a million square meters of new space was added Makati cbd 2,699,696 57,353
to Metro Manila’s office inventory in 2008 and 2009 only 180,000 ortigas 1,095,623 45,396
sq m of new space will complete this year. No completions are
Fort bonifacio 413,020 72,673 83,793 49,920
anticipated in the Makati CBD this year with developers focusing
on other sub-markets, notably Fort Bonifacio. As at end 2009 there eastwood 220,103 32,876 39,840 35,765
was some 500,000 sq m of vacant office space in the Metro Manila alabang 234,305 27,701
market but this will be readily absorbed over the next 18 months.
This has encouraged developers to bring forward new and deferred OTHERs* 657,012 60,000
projects and the recent increase in ground-breakings is expected to total 5,319,759 178,646 123,633 203,038
accelerate through 2010. Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
*Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Quezon City
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Demand
As expected, demand continued to pick up in the first three Makati CBD
months of 2010. Inquiries for expansion, particularly in the Office VACANCY RATES
business process outsourcing (BPO) sector increased threefold
in 1Q10 compared to the same period last year. Vacancy levels
in most sub-markets fell but only marginally in the Makati CBD
where Premium Grade building vacancy remains at 12% due to
anemic demand from traditional office users. For 1Q10, Grade A
vacancy eased to 7.1% from 8.9% in 4Q09. Grade B vacancy on
the other hand inched higher to 6.2% from 6% last quarter.
The total net take-up for the first quarter in Makati CBD is 7,389
sq m, up from -12,427 sq m in 4Q09 and 3,000 sq m in the same
period last year.
Rents
Average rents in Makati CBD were stable through Q1 2010,
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
ending a period of six successive quarterly declines from mid
2008. As would be anticipated at this point in the cycle, with the
more positive outlook for business prospects this year up-grading
demand is beginning to come through. This is principally focused
on new buildings outside the Makati CBD. Landlords are now Makati CBD Office RENTS
looking to reduce tenant’s incentives in all locations and this (based on net usable area)
should lead to rents beginning to track upwards in the near term.
Overall rental growth of 5% to 10% is expected in 2010, with the
Makati CBD at the lower end of the range.
Makati CBD
Comparative Office Vacancy Rates
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
Capital Values
Tracking changes in rental rates last year, capital values marginally
declined. For 1Q10, capital values for office spaces declined by less
than 1%. Premium Grade offices are currently priced at an average
of P98,000 per sq m. Grade A office capital values on the other
hand maintains its current price at P74,000 per sq m and Grade
B capital values stand at P52,000 per sq m. Expect minor changes
in office capital values over the next 12 months as rental growth
looks less promising in Makati CBD compared to other locations
in Metro Manila.
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Supply Rents
Four residential condominiums are scheduled to complete in Makati As of 1Q10, average rents for luxury 3BR units in Makati CBD
CBD this year. These are Ayala Land’s Residences at Greenbelt is virtually unchanged at P540 per sq m or P135,000 monthly for
(San Lorenzo) and The Columns at Legaspi, Century Properties’ a 250-sq m unit. It should be noted however that newer condo-
Grand Soho Makati, and Megaworld’s Greenbelt Chancellor. By miniums like Shang Grand Tower and The Residences at Greenbelt
the end of this year, the total residential condominium stock in charges much higher on a per sq m basis, but only a few units are
the CBD will be 13,466 units. Over 6,000 new condominium units greater than 250 sq m. The luxury 3BR market is primarily driven
will complete in the Makati CBD in the next four years alone. On by demand from expatriates who have started looking at bigger
the other hand, the supply pipeline for residential developments units again.
remain the strongest in Bonifacio (BGC and McKinley Hill) with
more than 8,000 units expected to complete until 2013. Ortigas
Center will have around 2,500 new condominium units over the
next three years. Expect more condominium developments to pour Makati CBD
in as developers continue to beef up their project portfolios to take Residential Vacancy Rates
advantage of strong demand moving forward.
Demand
Vacancy in Makati CBD residential condominiums improved
further to 6.9% in 1Q10 from the previous quarter’s 7.5%. The
lack of new supply, coupled with increasing demand from expatri-
ates, supported the decline in vacancy rates particularly for luxury
condominiums. On the flipside, this situation may change after the
completion of new condominiums; new supply in the rental and
secondary market is expected to push vacancy levels back to 8% to
9% in the next 18 months.
Makati CBD
Residential Condominium Stock
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
forecast
Residential new supply
Average rents in Rockwell Center, on the other hand, is currently Makati CBD
at the rate of P680 per sq m or P153,000 per month for a 225-sq Comparative Residential Vacancy Rates
m unit. Average rates are also steady at Bonifacio Global City
where luxury 3BR units are leased at an average of P177,000 per
month for a 290-sq m unit. Rents for smaller condominium units 1Q10 4Q09 1Q11F
in these locations are much more expensive on a per sq m basis,
but demand for small units remains thin. It will be interesting to
see how rents adjust when more condominium units enter the Luxury 4.4% 4.8%
secondary and rental market in the next 18 months.
Others 8.9% 9.8%
All Grades 6.9% 7.5% 8.1%
Capital Values Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Currently, capital values of existing condominiums in the
Makati CBD can be sold at an average of P99,191 per sq m.
There are no changes in prices of existing condominiums given
that no new developments completed over the past 12 months. Makati CBD, rockwell, bonifacio global city
As new developments complete, expect average capital values to Prime 3BR Rents
improve by 3% to 5%.
metro manila
Comparative luxury 3BR Rental Rates
Makati cbd 349 - 729 349 - 733 - 0.3% 360 - 769 4.7%
rockwell 600 - 760 597 - 754 0.7% 640 - 799 5.8%
bgc 523 - 699 523 - 699 0.0% 540 - 720 3.2%
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
Metro manila
Prime 3BR Capital Values
makati cbd 67,913 - 130,469 67,913 - 130,469 0.0% 71,535 - 134,954 4.1%
rockwell 90,416 - 117,874 90,416 - 117,874 0.0% 92,000 - 122,500 3.0%
bgc 84,415 - 118,860 84,415 - 118,860 0.0% 87,018 - 122,525 3.1%
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
RETAIL SECTOR
Metro Manila
Supply Retail Supply and Demand
With more than 70 malls, the stock of retail malls in Metro Manila
currently stands at 4,999,186 sq m. This accounts for 70% of the
total stock in the Philippines. Although only one major mall
project, SM Novaliches, is expected to complete this year in Metro
Manila, there are various provincial developments in the pipeline.
We anticipate more mall developments outside the country’s
capital to accommodate the rising demand for retail spaces in
major cities across the country.
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Retail Stock
Metro Manila
10 Colliers International
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
Rents
Average rents for Ayala Center in Makati CBD are currently at an OFW Remittances
average of P1,120 per sq m, up from P1,100 per sq m in December.
On the other hand, malls in Ortigas Center charges an average
of P1,030 per sq m monthly for mall retail spaces. Smaller retail
spaces are usually a bit pricier at around P1,500 per sq m especially
in prime mall locations.
Spending Indicators
For the first three months of the year, vehicle sales grew by 36%
year-on-year to record 38,711 units sold. The Chamber of Auto-
motive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) are revising
current sales growth forecasts and assumptions to incorporate
the positive results in 1Q10. Certainly, the market is more con-
fident this year, as commercial vehicle sales increased by 40% to
25,701 units, accounting for almost 70% of the entire number of
vehicles sold for the period. This indicates how perceptions have
turned positive and how consumers have responded to improving *As of February 2010
Source: Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas
economic conditions - which in turn can be an indication of how
well the residential and retail markets will perform this year.
Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) remittances grew by 7.1% year- which also grew by 15% and reached 1.44 billion last year. Contin-
on-year to US$2.8 billion for the first two months of this year ued increase in access to formal remittance channels also helped
compared to US$2.5 billion in the same period last year. Growth boost the remittances figure. OFW remittances are expected to
is still supported by the steady deployment of Filipino workers grow by more than 10% this year.
Source: Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. Source: Philippine Overseas Employment Agency,
National Statistical Coordination Board
Colliers International 11
The Knowledge Report | April | 2010 | Philippines
USA 94
Canada 22
Latin America 17
Asia Pacific 64
EMEA 97
Revenue in 2008
Over US$1.6 billion
Property Management
1.1 billion sq ft
12,700 Professionals
Contact information
philippines:
Ramon Jose E. Aguirre
Research Manager
10F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza Ayala Ave.
Makati City, Philippines 1226
Tel: 632-888-9988 ext. 4030
rj.aguirre@colliers.com
David A. Young
Managing Director
10F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza Ayala Ave.
Makati City, Philippines 1226
Tel. 632-888-9988 ext. 4015
david.a.young@colliers.com
www.colliers.com/philippines