ECE 2507: LOGISTICS AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS IN

TRANSPORTATION

COURSE OUTLINE
1. Introduction
-Definitions; logistics, system and technologies
-System analysis in transportation
2. Economic characteristics of selected transportation technologies.
3. Optimization, evaluation, costing and modelling in Transportation
4. Transportation/Inventory/production cost interrelationships,
5. Physical distribution and carrier networks.
6. Logistics operations, system design.

References:

1. O’Flaherty C.A. (1983), Highways and Traffic Vol. 1; Edward Arnold

Publishers, London
2. Margaret Hearty Margaret (1991), Urban transport in developing
countries, Lessons in innovations, Glenthorne House, Hammersmith
Grove.
3. Chakroborty Partha (2003), Principles of Transportation Engineering,
Prentice Hall of India, New Delhi.
4. Banks J.H. (1998) Introduction to Transportation Engineering, New
York, McGraw- Hill.
5. Papacostas C.S. and Prevedouros P.D. (1993), Transportation
Engineering and Planning, Prentice-Hall, Eaglewood Cliffs, New
Jersey, USA
6. Sinha Kumares Chandra (2007), Transportation decision making:
Principles of project evaluation and programming; John Wiley and Sons
Inc. Hoboken, New Jersey, USA
7. Vuchic Vucan R. (2005), Urban Transit: Operations, planning and
economics; John Wiley and Sons Inc. New Jersey, USA
8. Internet sources. WWW (World Wide Web).

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Long term transport planning is likely to be a complex problem. It is

probable that it requires huge financial expenditures and involves large
and expensive construction programmes which will affect economic,
social and natural environment. Furthermore, the desired solutions can be
achieved only by carefully constructed policy making at multiple levels
of government and administration as well as consultative strategies with

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the stakeholders and the private sector. It therefore applies systems
approach to planning which requires in-depth analysis of the transport
system.

Logistics

The definition of logistics adopted by the Council of Logistics

Management is "the process of planning, implementing, and
controlling the efficient, effective flow and storage of goods, services,
and related information from point of origin to point of consumption for
the purpose of conforming to customer requirements." This definition
includes inbound, outbound, internal, and external movements, and
returns of materials for environmental, salvage, repair and recall
purposes. Thus Logistics in transportation planning includes the supply,
distribution, management and organization of transport services. Here
transport supply entails infrastructure, vehicles and rules and regulations
(and organization) that govern the system. Management and organization
deals with handling, maintenance, replacement, and repair of components
of the transport supply, namely vehicles and related infrastructure, as well
as scheduling for cost effective, convenient, efficient and safe movement
of people and goods to efficiently meet the demand for transportation
services.

For the case of freight transport services, every business firm, regardless
of what it produces or distributes, requires the movement of goods from
one point to another and, therefore, is involved in transportation.
Transportation essentially concerns the spatial dimension of the business
firm. "The spatial dimension refers to geographical relationships and
reflects the juxtaposition of firms with respect to their materials sources,
markets, and competitors, plus the spatial relations of the latter to their
sources and markets". The purpose or function of transportation is to
serve as a connecting link between the spatially separated units within a
firm's own organization (such as between plants and warehouses) and
between units of the firm and units of other firms and individuals (such as
suppliers and customers). Good transportation has the effect of holding to
a minimum the time and cost involved in the spatial relationships of the
firm. The same applies to people travelling for various travel purposes,
for it is the spatial distribution of land uses (for socio-economic activities)
that creates demand for movement of people and goods.

It is imperative that we understand that the modern logistics structure

rests on efficient motor vehicle and carrier transportation. This requires

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well developed transport technologies: road, rail, water, air, etc, and their
corresponding infrastructure.

A system: A system is defined as consisting of various components

working together (in term various functions, each component performing
its own) to achieve common goals (for the good of the whole). A
transportation system consists of fixed facilities, flow entities and
control systems that permit people and goods to overcome the friction of
geographical space efficiently (move from point A to Point B) in order to
participate in a timely manner in some desired activity.

A systems approach is decision making process for solving complex

problems. It is composed of:
i) Systems Analysis: This is the application of scientific methods to
solution of complex problems. It is a clear evaluation of a combination of
all elements that structure the problem and those forces of strategies
needed for the achievement of the objective(s).
ii) Systems Engineering is the organization and scheduling the complete
strategies for the problem solution and the development of problem
definition and criteria for effective alternative solutions.
For effective alternative solutions, the following are important:
(a)The team tackling the problem is interdisciplinary; for example,
demographers, engineers, urban planners, economists and social
scientists. All facets of nature of the problem are considered.
(b)The team uses scientific methods throughout the analysis. A theory
must be developed to account for a set of observed facts. The theory is
checked to determine if it actually explains known facts and it is also
checked to determine its predictive validity.

Steps in systems Analysis

1. Recognize community transportation problems and values
2. Establish goals
3. Define objective
4. Establish criteria
5. Design alternative actions (solutions) to achieve steps 2 and 3.
6. Evaluate the alternative actions in terms of effectiveness and costs (and
criteria set)
7. Question the objectives and all assumptions
8. Examine new alternatives or modifications of step 5
9. Establish new objectives or modifications of step 3.
10. Repeat the cycle until a satisfactory solution is created in keeping
with criteria, standards, and value set.

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Performance Standards
Performance standards of a system and its elements may be set either by
generally accepted norms, i.e. standards set by manuals, hand books and
codes or warrants, or may be internally designed standards used as system
criteria that relate to the overall operating philosophy of the transportation
agency. Design, revenue and cost estimates are left to the relevant
appropriate authorities since they need specialized knowledge.

Main/key basis attributes for transport systems analysis

The three main attributes with respect to which transportation systems are
analysed are:
1. Ubiquity: This is the amount of accessibility to the system,
directness of routing between access points and systems flexibility
to a variety of traffic conditions.
2. Mobility: This is the quantity of travel that can be handled. The
capacity of a system to handle traffic and speed are two variables
connected with mobility.
3. Efficiency: This is the attribute that gives the relationship between
cost of the transportation (and its system) and the productivity of
the system. Direct costs of a transport system comprise capital and
operating costs, and indirect costs include adverse impacts and
other unquantifiable costs such as safety and security.
In terms of these attributes, analysis and evaluation of transport systems
(and their technologies) can be done to derive their basic characteristics,
economic and otherwise.

2.0 ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SELECTED

TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES.

It has already been explained that a transportation system consists of

fixed facilities, flow entities and control systems that permit people and
goods to overcome the friction of geographical space efficiently in order
to participate in a timely manner in some desired activity (for socio-
economic purposes). Thus the various components of the transport system
are the fixed facilities (infrastructure), flow entities (vehicles) and the
control systems (organizations, rules/laws and regulations)

Fixed Facilities (the infrastructure)

Fixed facilities are the physical components of the system that are fixed n
space and constitute the networks of links (e.g. roadway segments,
railway tracks, pipes) and nodes (e.g. intersections, interchanges, transit
terminals, harbours, and airports) of the transportation system. The design
of the fixed facilities is has traditionally fallen in the realm of civil

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engineering. i.e. it includes soil, foundation engineering, structural
design, design of drainage systems and geometric design.

Flow Entities (vehicles) and Technology

Flow entities are units that traverse the fixed facilities. They include
vehicles, container units, railroad cars, ships, etc. For highways, the fixed
entities are expected to accommodate a wide variety of vehicle types,
ranging from bicycles to large tractor – trailer combinations. For the
purposes of geometric design, the American Association of State
Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) has specified a set of
design vehicles, each describing a typical class of highway vehicles.

Control System
Control system consists of vehicular control and flow control. Vehicular
control refers to technologies for guiding individual vehicles on the fixed
facilities; it can be manual or automated. The geometric design of the
fixed facilities (such as highways), should incorporate both the
characteristic of the vehicles and those of the vehicular control system
and facilities. For a highway they include driver characteristic such as
driver reaction time.
Flow control system consists of the means that permit the efficient and
smooth operations of streams of vehicles and reduction of conflicts
between vehicles. This includes the various types of signing, marking and
signal system and the underlying rules/laws governing operations.
Organization and scheduling of vehicles and traffic is also important part
of the control system.

CLASSIFICATION OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS &

TECHNOLOGIES

A) A transportation system can be classified in several ways;

The type of technology they employ
Function and type of service (Passenger or Freight)
Who owns it or is responsible for their implementation and
operation.

B) A transportation system can further be classified according to the

medium on which the flow elements are supported. ( Modes )
The Four Major Sub-Systems are:
1. Land transport
Highway
Rail
2. Air transportation

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 Domestic
International
3. Water transportation
Inland
Coastal
Ocean
4. Pipelines
Oil
Gas
Other, etc

C) Transportation systems can also be classified as either for hire or not

for hire. These categories are known respectively as public and private.
These terms refer to their availability and not to their ownership,

2.1 TRANSPORTATION MODES /TECHNOLOGIES

The transportation modes and technologies are each suited to carry out
specific tasks. They each have different fixed costs and variable costs.
The total cost of a transportation system or sub-system or mode or
technology is thus divided into fixed and variable costs. Fixed costs are
those costs that do not relate to the production or utilization (level) of
equipment or facility or machinery. Buses, trains, aircrafts, infrastructure
construction, etc cost a fixed amount of money no matter what the degree
or level of utilization is. Whether idle or used 100%, this cost of purchase
or construction remains the same. Variable costs, however, are those
costs that vary proportionately with or tend to be proportional to the
degree of utilization or production. The more an equipment or machinery
or facility is utilized, the more costs will be incurred; examples include
costs of labour, repairs, fuel for buses or trains or aircrafts.

The absolute magnitude of the fixed cost and the magnitude of the
variable cost relative to fixed cost determine the existence of the
economies of scale. When economies of scale are present, production
increases lower the cost per unit and increase the profit per unit.
Economies of scale exist when, first, the fixed cost is high (such that the
more it is spread over more units, the lower the cost per unit becomes),
and secondly, when the variable cost is small compared with the fixed
cost (such that with increases in units produced, the rate of increase in
variable cost is lower in comparison to the rate at which the high fixed
cost is being spread to low levels over the more units being produced).

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Situations for variable and fixed costs are shown in the following
diagrams:

Cost Total cost

Variable
Cost cost
Cost

Fixed
cost

Units
Units
Units

The above figure shows a situation where there are NO ECONOMIES

OF SCALE

Cost Total cost

Fixed Cost
Cost cost
Variable
cost

Units
Units
Units

The above figure shows a situation where there are ECONOMIES OF

SCALE

The Transportation modes/technologies to be discussed herewith are:

 Road Transport / Motor Carriers
 Railroads
 Pipelines
 Water transport
 Air carriers
 Intercity & Travel Industry

2.1. THE ROAD TRANPORTATIO TECHNOLOGY

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Road transport (Technical Aspects)
The most important aspects of the road are; the width, Surface conditions,
Slopes and curves all which affect the flow of traffic.

Surface conditions:
These can be described through the two parameters, the frequency an
extent of distressed sections (like pot holes, depressions and stripped
sections and the friction offered by the road surface. Severely distressed
sections cause considerable hindrance to smooth flow of traffic due to
frequent slowing down of vehicles and changing of path to avoid
potholes.

The road surface should provide sufficient friction to enable vehicles to

move and stop effectively. Very smooth roads are usually safety hazards.
The coefficient of rolling friction offered by dry paved surfaces should
be around 0.5. It reduces to 0.3 if the surface is wet. The other friction
coefficient is the coefficient of side friction; this is the measure of
resistance offered by the road surface to movements orthogonal to
direction of motion. It can be as high as 0.6 when the surface is dry.
Road Slopes:
The slope of the road and the length of the slope are important aspects of
road design. It affects the operation costs of the vehicles; steep slopes
also affect the design speed for vehicles. The maximum grades for an
engineered road is supposed to be 10%. This figure may be exceeded by
2%. Roads with high design speeds require low gradients. To avoid
standing water in side ditches a minimum grade of 0.5% is recommended.
(Road design manual Part 1).
Curves:
Horizontal curves in roads create centrifugal forces on vehicles moving
on them. The centrifugal force is usually countered by super elevation. A
minimum Curve radius of 60m is recommended with a corresponding
design speed of 40 Km/h and a super elevation of 6 -7%. (Avoid short
curves between two straights)

Characteristics of Motor Carries / Road Transport

Motor carries constitute the most ubiquitous mode of transport. Most
countries have an extensive road network. They have the advantage of
being able to provide door to door service to both the shipper and the
receiver of the consignee.

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It has an additional advantage of having a high level of integration with
all other modes of transport, they link all transportation carries, i.e. docks,
ports, airports and railroad yards.

The other advantage of road transport is the spatial flexibility it has.

Buses using road transport that are on combustion engines are usually
only restricted by topography. Buses and other public transport modes
usually take advantage of the existing infrastructure as far as the roadway
is concerned, this reduces the cost for the service providers.

Investment need only be made for bus stops, separate bus lanes at
intersections, maintenance facilities. The roads way it is already installed
and there are no fees for using the urban road network. The frequency of
service is only determined by the number of available vehicles and not by
the road infrastructure.

It has limitations in weight and in volume of commodities to be

transported. The rates charged are also less competitive compared to
railroads for heavy goods.

Thus industry is characterised by low fixed cost (management, overhead,

vehicle fleet), and high variable costs (Drivers, fuel, maintenance,
insurance, tires licenses and fleet depreciation). This mode thus does not
enjoy economies of scale as rail transport. There is stiff competition in
this industry as is evident by the large number of companies in existence.

In public transport, the bus system has a disadvantage in that they are
restricted capacity per vehicle, the rather low average travel time due to
very short average distance between stops an speed limit on urban streets,
low average punctuality caused by influences of private transport and
capacity limits in the road network.

According to the restricted seat capacity, bus systems should be preferred

in areas with a rather low population density or as feeder lines to track-
based systems in public transport.

Road Costs
The total transportation costs in road transport include the cost of
constructing the highway; design of the highway, construction and
maintenance. The cost of accidents accruing to the users and non users
which constitutes direct money paid to hospitals, repair of property,
compensation of injury and loss of life, legal fees etc. For some of these

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there may be no monetary payment, or perhaps more importantly, the
monetary payment may not truly reflect the loss incurred.
Other costs include damage due to air pollution or noise from vehicles
(reflected in costs of vehicle calming and pavement design), reduction of
property value due to aesthetics considerations, etc.

There are also some benefits from the from the highway improvements
which go beyond the gains for the system owner, users or those involved
in the accidents, such as general benefits to the regional economy from
improved transport. It is thus very difficult to quantify transportation
costs.

2.2 THE RAIL TRANSPORT MODE/TECHNOLOGY

Rail Transport (Guided Ground Transport)

Basic Characteristics of Guided ground transport:

This transportation mode is characterised to cover large geographical
areas and a low transport cost charged .They are mainly used to transport
large volume low high-weight and low value commodities such as coal,
grain, oil and chemical products, paper and pulp.

The rail road industry is also characterised by high fixed costs Right of
Way ROW (Tracks, bridges, tunnels, switches, terminals (Switching
yards, interchanges, maintenance and storage facilities) and rolling stock
(locomotives, cars, repair machinery) .Their variable costs are relatively
low; they include labour, fuel electricity insurance taxes depreciation and
equipment maintenance and upgrading. The industry enjoys substantial
economies of scale as increase in volume transported is accompanied by
low increases in costs.

Technical Elements for rail transport technology

Rail infrastructure

 Alignment; the straight line is outstanding in the rail alignment,

recommended the percentage of curvature is always 20-30%
Low vertical grades are also dominant max grade is 1.25 – 4.00 %
1.25% for mixed traffic
4.00% passenger dedicated

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 (Viaduct, Bridge and Cuts)

 Infrastructure – structural Permanent way / Truck way

 Stations, for freight and passenger facilities

 Communication facilities and signalling

Advantages
 Pollution, The amount of pollution / emissions per passenger are
lower when compared with other conventional modes of transport,
when electric, it does not pollute the vicinity.
 Land use, the amount of land use required by rail infrastructure is
much less than that used by road transport,
 Safety, it is safer, Controlled from a central place,
 Fast,
 Has a higher performance capacity , passengers per hour per day,
 Low energy consumption due to small friction rate between steel
rail and the truck
 Punctuality, calculated running time
 Low operation cost

Disadvantages
 Flexibility
 No door to door service
 Low grades are required (expensive to construct alignment) and
large radii
 Small or low acceleration rates

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2.3 THE WATER TRANSPORT MODE/TECHNOLOGY

Water transportation is the oldest form of mass freight transportation over

seas or long distance. Traditionally, vibrant economic and industrial
centres as well as population settlements were developed around ports,
harbours, lakes and navigable rivers. Water transportation currently plays
an important mode for shipping bulky materials.

The structure of domestic water carriers is similar to that of the motor

vehicles, domestic water carriers are either for hire or private. Domestic
water carriers operate in three distinct areas;

 Inland navigable waterways (rivers and canals)

 Great lakes
 Coastal ports

Water ways and lake service is occasionally affected by ice formation and
by drought.

Water transportation offers in general low –cost but slow service. Both
the shipper and the receiver need to have access to the waterway or port.
Since the capacity of vessels exceeds the capacity of rail cars and trucks
by far, warehousing must be provided for storage. 22,500 tone vessel is
equivalent to 225 rail cars or 900 semi-trailer trucks.
Domestic waterway transportation industry is characterised by low fixed
and high variable costs. Casualty and insurance is a high a substantial part
of the variable costs, they are necessary to cover the loss and damage
from the elements of nature. Fixed costs of deep-sea operations are
substantially higher than those of inland water operations, and strong
economies of ship utilization persist.

Containerization of cargo and mechanisation of port operations has

become popular to reduce the time ships spent in the harbours.

Water transportation is the second least labour intensive

The rates of international water carriers, primarily ocean liners are set by
cartel-like bodies called steamship conferences. This arrangement hinders
competition but offers stability with respect to fluctuating international
trading.

Three noteworthy types of ocean vessels in existence are;

 Liners, which follow fixed routes and schedules

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  Tramp ships, which can be hired, rented, or leased on short term
basis
 Private ships that are owned or leased on a long term basis, tankers
being the prime examples.

A good site for harbour development is a palace characterised by (i)

deep water area of the sea (ii) area sheltered from storms and strong
winds and (iii) area where good geological formation will allow
easier/cheaper harbour construction

2.4 THE AIR TRANSPORT MODE/TECHNOLOGY

Air transport is the latest developed mode of transportation. The mode is
popular due to the fact that it makes places accessible in a matter of
hours.

The structure of the industry is quite simple, air carriers are either private
or for hire. For hire service are classified according to their size (annual
incomes) or according to the type of service they provide ( cargo only or
air taxi which offers service on demand, or commuter which offers
passenger service based on published timetables; charter for which the
route and schedule are negotiated in a contract and international).

The advantage of this mode is the fast terminal to terminal transportation,

reliable service (except under extremely poor weather conditions) and
attention to the customer, in flight services and entertainment.

Limited frequency of flights, capacity restrictions and poor services of

small cities are a disadvantage. There are also long travel times to and
from airports, which are traditionally located at the outskirts of urban
areas as well as the often long wait times, check-in boarding, taxiing
baggage claim increase the overall travel time.

In general, high value emergency and low weight items are shipped via
air carriers.

The airline industry is characterised by low fixed costs and high variable
costs. Fixed costs include the aircraft fleet and maintenance facilities,
computer reservation system, management, logistics, airport counters,
gates and baggage handling facilities as well as offices in cities. Several
of these may be leased including aircraft which makes them variable in
nature.

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Variable costs include landing fees (this covers the use of local, state,
airport facilities, roadway access networks, aircraft traffic controls)
labour fuel ( which combined account for 65% of the total variable cost,
maintenance and commission to travel agents. Passengers pay the same
price for tickets regardless of the source of purchase; also part of the
profit booked through travel agents goes to travel agent commission.

There are usually economies of scale in aircraft utilization; use of large

aircrafts may result in higher profit margins, provided there is enough
demand to fill the seats.

The capacity of an airfield is defined by a maximum number of landing

and takeoff slots. At congested airports, arriving aircrafts are placed on a
holding pattern (Usually spirals in the airports) and departing aircraft are
queued on taxiways. Larger aircraft require longer but fewer landing and
takeoffs slots for serving a fixed number of passengers.

There is a strong competition among airlines for the acquisition of rights

over high volume routes consequently, low density routes tend to be
abandoned; therefore the service offered to small cities deteriorates.

The use of air travel is expensive, limited baggage for passengers

(20kgs). Unfavourable weather conditions limit air travel.

Other advantages
Air transport contributes towards the national exchequer in the form of
various taxes, duties and other payments.
Air transport stimulates international trade
It also results in social and cultural benefits accruing out of movements
by air. Due to the faster mode of communication there is improved
efficiency of political, commercial and administration machinery.

ICAO: Air transport in the world is coordinated by ICAO (International

Civil Aviation Organisation), set up in 1947. It coordinates both military
and Air traffic and sets up regulations for airports. ICAO also provides
technical advice and administrative support through seven regional
offices.

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2.5 THE PIPELINES MODE/TECHNOLOGY

Pipelines provide mainly an underground form of transportation; they

transport limited variety of commodities i.e. in liquid form, thy have a
limited geographical coverage and they have no back haul movement
(one way only)

Typical products carried by pipelines are natural gas, crude oil, petroleum
products liquid chemicals products and coal slurry.

Pipeline transport rates are usually low. The high fixed and low variable
costs usually result in strong economies of scale for this industry.
Financial interests tend to consolidate and start with a large initial
investment, which tends to yield higher partly because of economies of
scale and partly because of inherent performance characteristics (A 12
inch pipe operating at capacity transports 3 times the liquid transported
by an 8 inch pipe)

Sophisticated monitoring of facilities with computers as well as

insignificant influence by elements result in minimal loss and damage
(i.e. quick detection of leaks) and in highly reliable deliverable schedules.
The only negative characteristics is the slow service, which is actually has
positive implications : the high accuracy and reliability of forecasted
delivery times diminish the need for safety stock at the receiving end,
while in essence pipelines offer free storage for as long as the order is on
the way to delivery.

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3.0 OPTIMIZATION, EVALUATION, COSTING AND
MODELLING IN TRANPORTATION SYSTEMS.

3.1 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

The importance of transportation in world development is
multidimensional. For example, one of the basic functions of
transportation is to link residence with employment and producers of
goods with their users. From the wider viewpoint, transportation facilities
provide the options for work, shopping, and recreation, and give access to
health and other amenities.

Transportation planning is a part of the overall town or regional planning.

In any kind of transportation planning human needs should be considered
first and foremost. Transport planning is therefore one link in the overall
chain of urban and regional planning. Transportation is an integral part of
the functioning of any society. It exhibits a very close relationship to the
style of life, the range and location of productive and leisure activities,
and goods and services which will be available for consumption.

The objective of a transport system is to ensure all the influences from the
various sections of life i.e. working, shopping, leisure, culture etc and to
translate the conclusions of these observations into an efficient transport
network and traffic handling.

Modern living and a variety of opportunities for fulfilling people’s needs

has resulted in an ever-increasing mobility. Numerous means of transport
are available to cater for this mobility. The key role of transportation
systems is the movement of people goods and goods from one point to
the other.

2.2 TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

2.2.1 Optimization, Evaluation

Optimization is often used to refer to method of achieving maximum
benefits from a resource, on the other hand evaluation as used in planning
and engineering refers to the merits of alternative proposals. The essence
of evaluation is the assessment of the comparative merits of the different
courses of action.

Transportation planning deals with the development of a comprehensive

plan for the construction and operation of transportation facilities.
Planning is necessary in order to develop a good and an efficient transport

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facility. The planning process should be continuous and dynamic i.e. it
should be sensitive to the continuing changes in the socio–economic
needs, technology, and the financial status of the state and its people. It
should be rational (i.e. it should be methodical) rather than political
(which tends to be the case), where decisions on construction and
operation of transportation facilities are taken by political functionaries to
gain short term popularity. In such cases, more often than not, the
development is piecemeal and crisis-mitigation oriented leading to largely
inefficient use of the limited resources.

2.2.1.1 Evaluation Issues

Most evaluation methodologies utilize some form of rating. Evaluators
calculate an index or score, indicating how the welfare of society (or
quality of life) would be affected if a particular alternative were
implemented. In effect they convert all the impacts into commensurate
units so that they can be added and compared.

Cost – benefit analysis was one of the first evaluation methods used
extensively that included a systematic rating procedure and has in the last
25 years been used widely to evaluate all types of public actions. The
method has however a number of weaknesses and this has led to the
development of several other evaluation techniques.

Some evaluation methodologies have established complex procedures for

quantifying social welfare ratings. Most of them appear scientific and
objective. It does not really matter how sophisticated these methodologies
are, because ultimately the ratings constitute value judgements. Each
method has its own weakness.

Several questions naturally stem from this broad description of evaluation

methodologies:

 How should the evaluation techniques be selected?

 Are economic values sufficient for weighing the costs and
benefits of a contemplated public action?
 How are intangible impacts quantified?
 How are equity issues being considered in evaluation?
 How should the concept of time being treated in evaluations?
 How can discount rates be estimated?

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2.2.2 Elements of transportation planning
It begins with the definition of the goals and objectives which are to be
achieved through transportation and ends with the development of an
implementation strategy of a particular course of action. The elements of
this process are:

a) Statement of goal and objective:

The policy making body defines a set of objectives which it seeks to
achieve through the development of transportation facilities. The
objectives have to bring development to the society.

Each state or locality has a vision for the future; it usually includes
improvement of life. It is this notion of improvement of quality of life of
the people that leads to goals and objectives to be achieved through
transportation. It may be general improvement through connectivity, of
all villages, reducing travel time on a certain highway or improving air
quality of large cities.

b) Identification of needs:
Once the goals have been stated, the next stage is to identify the needs of
the transportation system that will satisfy the goals. Essential inputs of
this identification process are an inventory of the existing system and a
forecast of the future conditions. A planning horizon is necessary for this
process. Examples of the needs that may satisfy the goals (i.e. the
objectives) are:

 Improvement of the capacity and characteristics of the current

system – e.g. to improve the Kenyan train system, the factors to
consider will include costs, appreciation, compliance.

 Catering for the Future needs – the new system should meet future
demands e.g. 600 passengers per day are using the current facility,
then it would be reasonable to prepare the system for 1200
passengers per day.

C) Generation of alternatives:
Based on the needs enumerated earlier the transportation planner has to
identify various alternatives which match those needs. While determining
the alternatives the transport planner needs to look at:

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  The various modes like roadways (either individual transport or
public transport systems), railways, waterways, or airways.
 Technological aspects (Such as high-speed trains, raised monorails,
underground transit systems, driver information systems, etc).
 Traffic engineering aspects (Changing or improving the flow
pattern in an area by making certain roads one-way, reducing delay
on arterial streets by improving signalization or grade separated
intersections, disallowing certain movements at the intersection.
 Regulatory aspects (reserving lanes for high occupancy vehicles,
disallowing high polluting vehicles on the roads, imposing speed
limits.

e.g. If the goal is defined as cleaner air, the planning instruments such as
reserving lanes for high-occupancy vehicles, building better public
transport systems ( less vehicles on the road), Coordinating signals,
changing flow patterns ( less traffic congestion), and enforcing the use of
only less polluting vehicles gain prominence. Whereas for the goals and
needs of the proposed transport system connecting two towns (Nauru –
Nairobi – Mombasa), high speed public transport system assumes the
utmost importance.

d) Evaluation of alternatives:
The evaluation of alternatives is related to the size, complexity, and
number of alternative improvements to be considered. Any alternative
will have implications such as:
Financial
Economical
Land-use wise and demographic
Technological & Environmental
An alternative has to be evaluated from each of the three standpoints. All
the above implications are interrelated in a way.

Financial feasibility analysis

The first objective is to determine how much a particular alternative will
cost both in terms of capital investment and operating and maintenance
costs and how capital cost is structured, that is weather the investment is
phased over a period of time or weather it has to be made up-front. The
second objective is to determine, whether it is possible to meet the costs
of the alternative based on budgetary considerations. If the alternative can
be borne financially then it is financially feasible. The following
questions should also be addressed:

19
  Will sufficient funds be available to implement alternatives on
schedule?
 From what resources
 What is the margin of safety for financial feasibility?
 What adjustment will be necessary if this margin of safety is
exceeded?

e.g. -improving sections of the rail tracks so that high-speed train

operation will pose safety hazards,
-Building new coaches which will be able to cope with high speed
operations
-Putting in place a more reliable automatic rail traffic control and
collision avoidance system.

The running costs in this case will primarily be due to:

Higher maintenance costs because of lower tolerance on track
quality.
More frequent maintenance checks
If the sponsor (ministry of transport is able to fund the coaches
then the project is financially feasible.

Economic Impact Analysis

This is to asses the various economic effects of the alternatives. The
economic impacts of the alternative will include:
 Travel time of the users,
 Out of pocket costs to the users,
 Improved business opportunities,
 Improved accessibility to various locations

Some of the impacts may be beneficial while others may not be.
A complete economic impact analysis is a complex issue and requires a
much better understanding of both principles of economics and
transportation.
The following questions should also be addressed:

 Does the alternative provide sufficient benefits to justify the

required expenditure?
 In comparison with less costly alternatives, does an alternative
provide additional benefits to justify the additional funds?
 In comparison with more costly alternatives, has sufficient weight
been given to the benefits that would be foregone in the event that
additional expenditure of funds is not justified?

20
  How do monetary costs and benefits affect conclusions about
economic efficiency?

Technical Implication analysis

The technological requirements and there feasibility are subject matters in
projects. Fast trains though technically feasible now were not 40 years
ago.

Land-use, demographic impact analysis and equity

Every transportation facility has an impact on the land-use and
demographic characteristics of an area. The development of a road, may
change the land-use of an area from ‘unused low land’ to a bustling
shopping complex’. Changes in land-use may often lead to changes in the
demographic statistics of an area. Some of the land-use and demographic
changes may be desirable while others may not be.

The demographic effects that should be considered are:

 What are the distribution of benefits and costs (i.e. among highway
users, near residents, etc.)?
 Do any groups pay shares of the costs that are disproportionate to
the benefits they receive?

Environmental impact analysis

Construction of any major transportation facility and its use has a direct
impact on the environment. The impact is at man levels:

 The construction of the facility, may entail changing the natural

futures of land which can lead to problems in habitat.
 The use of the facility, increase in air and noise pollution levels
 Good facility may encourage better travel, use of more ( non-
renewable fuel) fossil fuel.

Environmental impacts of alternatives varies, an alternative which

encourages public transport system will yield an environmental benefit
through a reduction in vehicular traffic.
``Sustainable development``-The available resources should and in
particular – should only be used in such a way to satisfy the present
needs that the coming generations will be able to use them for satisfying
future needs.

21
Legal and Administrative Feasibility
The alternative to be implemented should be feasible within the existing
laws and administrative guidelines. The planner should find out which
adjustments to be done if the alternative does not fit into the legal frame
work of the country. The approaches that are required in the later stages
of the planning process should also be in line with the system. The issue
of approvals should also be sought from the respective authorities.

e) Implementation of alternatives
Once the implementation of all alternatives has been evaluated, these
alternatives are then rated from the most useful/advisable to the least. The
best rated project will then be selected for implementation. The task of
planning ends with the development of a detailed road map of how the
alternative will be implemented.
The implementation strategy should identify:

 The agencies and instruments that will be used on the ground

 The agencies that will be entrusted with maintaining and operating
the facility
 The operating strategy

COSTING
Cost component of transportation systems (Cost benefit analysis) not
tendering
In all transport projects the benefits that accrue to the society are more
than the apparent revenues from these projects. Decision-makers have
been searching for techniques that can be including the full range of
factors in one analysis. It should be known that the basic purpose of
evaluation is to assist the decision makers in choosing between alternative
courses of action.

In cost benefit analysis method of appraisal the costs and benefits are
discounted over a period of (say 25years) from the proposed opening date
to give a net present value and a net present value cost ratio. It is solely a
an economic appraisal method involving savings in travel time, savings in
vehicle operating costs and lower accidents rates which are matched
against the capital and maintenance costs of the new road. Thus the cost
of transportation can be thought of as consisting of costs incurred by two
parties, namely the agency cost and the user cost.

2.21 Agency costs

22
These are costs incurred by the agency (government or private) for
construction of a highway facility.

The construction cost involves the following:

 Surveying planning and design
 Acquisition of land
 Construction of the highway
 Installation of traffic and control devices
 Supervision quality control, and administration
 Installation of other transport facilities.

The maintenance costs involve costs of planning and implementation of

various maintenance measures. They comprise of:
 Periodic repair
 Major rehabilitation
 Operational requirements
 Supervision and installation
2.22 User costs
Costs incurred by the road users, unlike costs of construction, costs
incurred by road users are difficult to quantify evaluate. In some cases the
user costs are not measurable such as pain or grief during accidents.

2.221 Vehicle operating (VOC)

This is the cost of owning and operating a vehicle on a road. This can be
divided into variable costs and fixed. The variable costs are:
Fuel consumption,
Spare parts, tyre wear, Lubricants.
Maintenance labour
Depreciation
Wages of the crew
The fixed costs are:
Capital costs, registration fees, insurance, road permit charges and
other road taxes.

2.222 Accident
Roads with poor functional characteristics are prone to have more number
of accidents. Even though the cost of accidents is difficult of measure,
some values are recommended in the road user costs.

2.223
Cost of travel time

23
The travel time is reduced by better quality of roads, flyovers, and
exclusive expressways. The cost of travel is different for different users.
A rich person may be willing to pay higher fare for a fast and comfortable
mode of transportation. The value of work trips is also higher than non
working time.

2.30 Benefit Component in a transportation system

The objective of a good transportation system is to provide an efficient,
quick and safe means of transportation to its users. Various benefits
accrue to users.

Road user benefits

Savings in VOC
Reduction in travel times
Reduction in accidents
Savings in maintenance costs.
Social benefits
Improvement in administration
Health, Education
Industry
Trade
Environmental standards.

It is difficult to estimate the benefits of a transportation system, e.g a

good transport system may reduce noise and air pollution and enhance
aesthetics which is difficult to quantify.
The benefits of a highway project can be perceived in three categories of
traffic: Normal traffic plying the facility, diverted traffic and generated or
induced traffic. After construction the new road will have lower VOC
thus more traffic will be diverted to it.

2.4 Parameters used in costing / economic analysis

The following parameters are used in economic analysis of transportation
projects.

2.41 Time Horizon or Analysis Period

The investment of highway construction / transportation infrastructure,
maintenance and its benefits are spread over a time span called time
horizon of assessment. Usually is about 20-25 years depend on nature of
the project, may be less for some projects.

24
2.4.2 Interest rate
It is the return obtained after the end of the year as a percentage of the
capital invested at the beginning of the year. It is either simple or
compound. It is an extra cost chargeable to the highway project and
payable to the source that generated the investment.

The interest rate is used to calculate the amount of money that would
accrue to at a future date while the discount rate is used to calculate the
present equivalent amount of money, of the amount which will be invested
in future
(Economic analysis)

2.4.3 Salvage Value

Salvage value, S, reflects the price that can be obtained for any
salvageable or usable portions of the facility, less the costs associated
with any required dismantling, demolition, or return of the land to its
original purpose. Such salvage values have received careful consideration
in many engineering contexts, such as in connection with machinery
whose salvage value can represent significant amount of money.

However in transportation facilities context it is rather difficult to speak

of salvage value. This is partly because most facilities in common use at
the present time either are not abandoned so that we have no real value
of salvage value, or where they consist of railroads or canals are
abandoned the land or the fixed line have always been of very little
importance.

2.4.4 Present Value

Present value is the total cost of the project, when investments in various
years (during the analysis period) are brought to the equivalent
value of the present year. The factor (1+r)n relates the future value
to the present value.

Present Value = Future value / (1+r) n

FV
PV =
(1  r ) N
Since the effect of interest rate is to discount the future values, the interest
rate is termed as a discounting rate rather than interest rate.

There is however no scientific method of determining the interest rate,

Part of the problem is that the discount rate can reflect at least three
reasons for existence.

25
  General preference of receiving a dollar now rather than some time
in future.
 It represents some king of risk, whether a dollar received now will
actually be paid in future
 A discount rate can be interpreted to reflect a type of profit
associated with the expenditure now, some profit which enables
banks and other institutions to lend money. A discount rate would
reflect would reflect the profit attainable from the expenditure of
money now.
The problem of selecting a single rate of interest also exist, in the USA a
rate of 10% is usually taken.

As a routine maintenance work, a sum of Kshs 10,000, 000 is to be spent

on a particular stretch of a highway during the 4 th, 6th and eighth year.
Calculate the total present worth of these expenditures, if the annual
discount rate is 11% (compound)

Solution

= 10,000,000 * (1/1.114 + 1/1.116 + 1/1.118)

2.4.5 Capital recovery factor

The factor by which a single on a project is multiplied to yield an
equivalent annual cost is called capital recovery factor. This concept is
particularly used in transportation projects because it is used to specify
the annual cost including over the life of a transportation facility (say 30
years) which is equivalent to the initial expenditure for the construction
of that facility.

CRF = r( 1 + r )N
(1 + r )N - 1

The capital recovery factor decreases with the increasing number of

years.
The inclusion of salvage value on the calculation of capital recovery
factor calculation, reduces it a bit.

A construction expenditure of a new highway was estimated to be 100

million, the money was to be raised through loans, calculate the
instalments to paid each year if the loan is to be repaid in 15 years.
Assume a compound interest rate as 13%.

26
Solution
y = x ( 1 + r )N - 1
r( 1 + r )N

100 = x (1.13)15 - 1
0.13(1.13)15

x = Kshs

Methods of Evaluation of Transportation Projects

Since different projects have different effects various methods are
available for evaluating transportation projects. Projects with the most
beneficial results are then recommended. The following are examples of
commonly used analysis methods.

Cost – Benefit Method

The benefits and costs are spread over a time horizon, to compare the
costs and the benefits they have to be brought to an equivalent values at a
base year to be compared. Various alternative transportation projects are
compared before selecting one.

Refer to other hand out (on cost benefit analysis (Refer to Extra
Notes)

Net present Value Method

The costs and benefits are of individual years are discounted to the
present value. Thus the NPV of the base year can be written as

n
 ( Bi  Ci 
NPV =   (1  r )
i 0 
n 


NPV > 0 for a project to be feasible.

Internal Rate of Return Method (IRR)

It is the discount rate for which the net present value is zero. If the rate of
return thus obtained is more than the market interest then the project is
adjudged to be acceptable. Found by trial and error.

Refer to Extra hand-outs

27
The cost – benefit model is simple to use, but sometimes the ratios are so
close, and it becomes difficult to interpret and choose the best option.
Some components are difficult to be classified as either costs or benefits.
Sometimes it is confusing weather savings in costs is actually a benefit.
In the NPV method some discount rate is assumed and various alternative
projects are compared, if a different discount rate is used the order of
choice among the alternatives may change. The IRR takes care of this
difficulty as it finds the rate of interest itself. Thus the IRR is the most
preferred economic analysis tool.

Main Problems of evaluation (summary)

 Selecting the describing effect to be taken into account

 Problems of interpersonal comparison and weighting of effects
occurring in different households. (a dollar given o a poor person
has greater weight than a dollar given to a rich person)
 Problem of determining the correct length of evaluation period
 Justifying a particular interest rate.
 General difficulty to forecast future costs and benefits in a
sufficiently reliable way.

Welfare Economies and transport system Evaluation

The increase in welfare is unambiguously defined if an increase in one
individual’s satisfaction is not accompanied by a deterioration in the
satisfaction of another.

The general form of social welfare function is:

W = W (U1, U2, U3 .Ui Un)

Where Ui = the utility of the ith consumer.

The utility function is not unique function and its form depends on the
value judgement of the person for whom it is a desirable function. It
expresses one set of views concerning the effect that the utility level of
the ith consumer has on the welfare of the society.

$$$ The figure below provides types of value judgements that are
necessary to define a social welfare function for an urban transport
system. $$$$$$$$$$$$

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Transport Financing
Financing of transport infrastructure is usually a very costly exercise. In
most countries the government holds the key role of constructing and
managing transportation systems. Local authorities and private
institutions also play an important role in financing roads that are usually
within their jurisdiction. The Government funding may come from
various sources, such as budgetary allocation, special transport
development bonds, and fuel levy and toll revenues.

Funding for transportation projects can also be attracted from private

organisations. Some models of degree of involvement of private
organisations in transportation are:

 Completely owned and financed by a private body

 Built operate and transfer ( BOT)
 Built transfer and operate ( BTO)

Out of the models BOT is generally considered the most effective form of
privatization. Several variations of BOT exist, such as built own and
operate (BOO), Built own, operate and sell (BOOS), Built own operate
and transfer ( BOOT)

29
The government offers certain incentives towards investment in building
transportation facilities in order to encourage private sector participation.
Tax exemption up to certain levels, concession periods, and direct foreign
investment is sometimes allowed.

Since transportation projects require large financial outlays of investment,

all funding possibilities should be explored for successful implementation
of a conceived project.

3.0 Modelling
A model can be defined as something which in some respect resembles or
describes the structure and/or behaviour of a real life counterpart. There is
some correlation between the model and its corresponding reality
although obviously a less than perfect correlation.

3.1 Definition of Models

Models relate specified elements ("variables") to each other by specified
assumptions as to behavioural patterns, expressed by "parameters" in
specific functional relations. They allow the quantitative and qualitative
analysis of consequences ("impacts") of modifications (evolutions) of
certain elements or behavioural assumptions to the extent that the
underlying assumptions have been formalised and quantified in an
appropriate way (normally: by using available information). It is
important to understand that all models are "only" simplified and
formalised images of relevant and significant elements and of behavioural
relations which the model builder and the model user consider to be
important for describing a relevant "reality" to be analysed.

Models present selected available information in a systematic and

consistent way. This information can come from various sources: time
series, observations for a specific point in time, or for a specific period,
samples, and others; it is never complete - just as the information stored
and treated in human brains also is always a reduced and selective
description of what is considered a "reality".

The elements ("variables") of a model describe, in principle, the "facts"

characterising the reality to be analysed. Such facts can be the inhabitants
of an area, the persons employed in specific categories of activities, the
land surface occupied by residential buildings, the water provided or the
traffic generated, the availability of green space per inhabitant, the
number of commuters from a specific place of residence to a place or
work, and many other "facts", according to the analytical, forecasting,
and possibly evaluation interests of the model user. Variables can

30
describe a situation at a certain point of time or for a certain period
(related to a certain point of time).

The behavioural relations ("parameters" linking different variables with

each other, in a specified way) express observations of behaviour in the
past and assumptions concerning behaviour in the future. The form of the
functional relation and the numerical values of the parameters used
normally come from systematically analysed observations of past events;
the procedure of exposing assumptions to empirical evidence, and of
adapting the assumed values of parameters to a "best fit" to empirical
evidence, is often called "calibration".

Typical behavioural relations of interest for spatial models concern e.g.

the intensity of use of land by residential or production activities
("density functions"), the number of bus rides of pupils from home to
school ("traffic generation functions"), the use of income for different
kinds of consumption ("demand functions"), and many other aspects of
normal life.

Each of these relations expresses the behaviour of the acting individuals

or members of a defined social group; the traffic generation function for
active teenagers generally is different from that of family mothers in the
same situation. One of the tasks of the model builder, and of the model
user before trusting the model results, is to check whether the behavioural
assumptions expressed (formalised) in the model can be sufficiently
justified.

With regard to the consideration of time, models can be static,

comparative-static, or dynamic.

 Static models refer to only one point on time, or one period of time.
 Comparative-static models describe a situation for a specific point
in time, or the events during a specified period, for two distinct
points in time, or for two distinct periods, thereby allowing an
inter-temporal comparison of variables and parameters that can
lead to first conclusions regarding the behaviour of the system in
time.

Static models consider only one point of time and the corresponding
period (e.g. the situation on 31 December 1999 and the period of 1
January to 31 December 1999).

31
  Comparative static models comprise two (independent) sub-models
for two different points of time and their corresponding periods. It
is assumed that the "development" (changes) in between the two
points of time respectively. The two corresponding periods indicate
tendencies of development.

 Dynamic models have at least one equation in which two variables

for different periods or for different points in time are linked by a
parameter. They are conceived, in principle, to explain how a new
situation evolves from an earlier situation, and to understand the
roles and contributions of the considered variables and parameters
to this development process.

3.2 Types of Models

Three fundamental types of models can be distinguished: descriptive
models optimisation models, and simulation models. Descriptive models
try to provide a "correct" description of real situations and developments;
they are mainly used for analysing ("understanding and explaining")
known situations, but in most cases they can also be used to forecast
future situations and developments on the basis of exogenous forecasts of
key variables (e.g. population figures or production levels).
Optimisation models are designed to optimise (maximise or minimise)
one specific relation or element under a set of constraints (conditions), for
a possible future situation or development, for example they can locate
economic and residential activities, for a set of given behavioural
assumptions, in such a way that commuting is minimised.

Limitations of Transport Planning Models

The structure of the transport planning models (TPM) has proved robust
and long lasting. The four stage aggregate as originally developed in the
USA in the 1950s has been the bedrock upon which analysis has taken
place. Its value has been its ability to examine the city and region at the
aggregate level and to establish relationships between a given land use
pattern and travel. The existing situation could be modelled through the
four linked sub models ( Trip, generation, Trip Distribution, Modal split
and Trip Assignment), and current traffic problems could be identified.
The modelling process would then be used to predict overall travel
demand for the forecast year, and alternative transport strategies would be
developed. It was probably the classic example of the systems approach
to analysis, and represented the positivistic, descriptive and prescriptive
dimensions which epitomised such an approach.

32
The rigidity of this approach has both strengths and weaknesses. Its
strength has been in the logic of the process and the representation of the
ways in which decisions are made, and it also provided a framework
within which transport options could be tested. However that framework
has also been a source of criticism in that it has acted as a straight jacket.
The other limitations of the conventional TPM are highlighted herewith:

The Theoretical Basis is Weak

TPM is empirically based and designed to predict travel on the basis of
establishing relationships that link travel with socio-economic and other
variables. This positivistic approach is data driven and makes no attempt
at understanding the behaviour of people. As such it is the definitional
and measurement issues that which become important rather than the
understanding the reasons why people travel.
Urban transport modelling is driven by public policy which is inherently
unstable and the requirements of decision makers reflect instability.

Structure of the TPM

The sequential structure with the output of the four component parts was
seen as having some logic in that the decision to travel could be divided
into a series of discrete stages: Whether to travel ( Trip generation ),
where to travel ( Trip distribution ), which mode to use ( Modal split ),
and what route to follow (Trip assignment ) . However, decision-making
is sometimes simultaneous in that the decisions to make a trip includes
the subsequent decisions. This argument may be particularly relevant
where travel patterns become routinized and habits are formed. The
concept that an individual is a rational decision maker who has full
knowledge of all alternatives available (including destinations, modes and
routes) may trivialize the actual behavioural decisions being made
including constraints from other household members, previous
experiences, linking activities and inspiration.

The evaluation of transport alternatives is seen in terms of user benefits,

principally the savings in travel time. The more sensitive readjustment of
participation in different sets if activities and in activity relocation is not
covered, nor id the overall assessment of the implications of the proposal
on particular groups in the society. The aggregate user benefits means
that more faster are the principal aims of investment, and that the quality
of travel and accessibility concerns are reduced to a second order of
importance.

33
The structure of the TPM makes it difficult to include unconventional
policy alternatives. Once a relationship has been established between say
socio-economic status and car use, they are assumed to remain stable over
time. It is difficult to examine say the impact of technology on car use or
area wide policies such as traffic calming.

Data has always proved to be a strength and a weakness in the positivistic

approach, as on one the models are data driven, but on the other hand
there are never enough data. Most TPMs are static and are calibrated on
one set of cross sectional data. Again assumptions have to be made
whether these data is representative and whether one can predict
behaviour from such information. Weakness of the primary data inputs to
the TPM is not often acknowledged.

Forecasting
It involves the prediction of the future patterns. Two crucial issues in all
TPMs have been the assumption of stability of model coefficients over
time and the assumption that variables excluded from the model will not
be instrumental in modifying travel behaviour over time. There are also
inaccuracies in the expected growth in exogenous variables. The model is
calibrated for the existing situation and once the have been adequately
represented, the strong assumption is made, that the coefficients remain
constant over time. Errors can infiltrate the process through
misspecification of the base year, measurement inaccuracies, and through
forecast errors in the exogenous variables.

Comment
Despite these strong criticisms, improvements have been made to the
existing approaches to enable existing practitioners accept and relate to.
The TPM was primarily developed to allocate growth in population, in
economic activity, in income and in car ownership. It was concerned with
the provision of more transport infrastructure through the expansion of
the road network and improvement of public transport supply.

34
35
LOGISTICS

1.0 DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORT STRUCTURE

The overall urban and regional requirements must be determined; in
doing so the range of routes and means of transport must be examined
and brought into line with the requirements. Depending on the
requirements, but also the need to take into account aesthetics and urban
environment, the individual means of transport and transport systems
must be designed to achieve these objectives.

Specifically, this entails:

 Development of highways for private transport, as far as the urban

environment and the health of the citizens.
 In towns plan sufficiently for stationary traffic, taking into account
aesthetics and urban environment.
 Choice of the right means of transport, appropriate for the for the
area and structures in question.
 Examination of individual, even limited traffic areas, to see
whether changing the transport system and converting to new
systems would bring about improvements, also with the pedestrian
in mind,
 Creation of a balanced transport system which ensures integration
of private and public transport to principles based on reason.

2.0 DEVELOPMENT OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT ON THE BASIS

OF SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The interdependencies between the economy, behavioural patterns of the
population, urban development and transport have grown considerably in
line with the continued adjustment to meet the needs of the modern
industrial society.

Development of new technology especially exerts a constant influence on

local public transport. The primary example is the increasing motorisation
in the last years. The variety of individual influences of modern life have,
however a decisive influence on overall urban development. The town
and its environs are increasingly interdependent. As a result of this earlier
bases for planning are being overturned. Large-scale migration from the
country (surrounding) after the first industrialisation phase has now been
supplanted by migration from the city to the surrounding and further
regions. This trend is continuing, it is dependent on increasing
motorization, since the automobile allows people to live within a range of

36
25 to 30 Km from the city and to drive daily between home and
workplace, as far as the traffic conditions permit.

The migration from inner cities must be stemmed with new overall
concepts. Revitalisation of the city to a certain extent by promoting new
housing developments in the centre is one of the possibilities. Pedestrian
zones in busy centres and secondary centres should help them to regain
their urban character.

Environmental influences, in particular those created by traffic itself,

must be taken into account. For this a detailed investigation of the
individual districts and the functions they serve is necessary, as is going
out into the regions. Co-ordination and integration of the plans over a
wide area provide the basis of the new concepts. Living outside town and
working and shopping in town is not the solution. Various polycentric
solutions present themselves to relieve the monotony of the city areas and
improve the traffic conditions.

The objective is to create a common, practicable transport plan with the

aim of providing the appropriate means of transport which is the optimum
for the functioning of life within the region, which is capable of handling
the volume of traffic and which is economic.

This plan must be drawn up and fully integrated in other urban

development plans. Regional development plans, land utilisation plans,
developments plans and general transport plans must form an integral
unit.

3. BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PLANNING FOR LOCAL PUBLIC

TRANSPORT

Planning for local public transport is only part of the overall transport
plan. In order to plan for this part correctly and appropriately for the
future of the region in question, detailed individual investigations are
necessary. When eventually selecting a transport network, or preferably
several transport networks incorporating different kinds of transport, the
one with the highest performance should be selected but also many other
criteria for the well-being of people in urban area should be taken into
consideration.

To avoid one-sidedness either for private or for public transport and to

reach an optimum of the performance of all transport modes the
following aspects should be taken into consideration:

37
 Integrated planning for several traffic networks (every mode of
transport has its system inherent advantages and disadvantages),
which consequently leads to rejection of planning from the point of
view of private transport bottlenecks.

 The models may only be used as aids and monitoring instruments

and building and improving programs based on these models must
be made flexible to react to changes in policy and society.

 Because of not properly working free market mechanism in

transport due to dominating influences of policy, economy and
society, the planning process should not just deal with economic
aspects but also the interests of non-motorists, e.g. pre-school
children, schoolchildren, housewives and the elderly have all to be
involved.

 The one-sided concept of an optimum transport system which does

not take into account environment questions, such as noise exhaust
pollution, dirt, aesthetics aspects must be dropped.

 Migration from the environs to the city centre must be controlled

and the environs must be seen as equally important as city centre in
terms of planning attractiveness.

 The infrastructure, which can be influenced by the planning

process, must take more account of pedestrians, cyclists and above
all public transport users.

 The surveys done on local public transport systems to ascertain

whether suburban railways, underground railways or - in particular
medium-sized towns – trams or other public transport is more
favourable, must be positively promoted.

 In target system for re-orienting transport planning, environmental

improvement, improvement of living conditions and leisure values,
must have priority over the aim of increasing mobility (e.g
promoting restricted transport areas).

 Local public transport should be designed so that there is no

hindrance by private transport. The public transport vehicles should
be able to influence the phases of traffic signals.

38
  There should be new priorities when extending transport systems:
first pedestrians, cyclists and public transport and then private
transport.

 Traffic steering measures must have a priority.

 Private transport should be assigned a supplementary function as

feeder system (Park & Ride) in areas where public transport is not
provided as a full service.

The forecast is derived from the diagnosis. In order to offer optimum

solutions for local public transport, constant co-operation with those
responsible in overall transport planning is necessary, since the modal
split between private and public transport can only be derived from
looking at the whole situation.

The result of this investigation provides the best overall solution for all
transport sectors and all means of transport for an optimum network, for
forecasting the necessary investment, for scheduling implementation,
while always taking into account of an overall optimum economic
development.

3.1 DIAGNOSIS
Diagnosis must take into account all the activities in life which have an
effect on traffic. This includes the above mentioned structural conditions
in all sectors (Living, working, leisure, education, shopping and other
communication). The task is therefore to draw up the fundamental
principles related to local public transport.

4. CURRENT URBAN AND TRANSPORT STRUCTURES

Details of the following must be compiled according to size and in order
to record the state of various sectors of life and the traffic flow of the
population centre:

 Living areas and their influence on traffic, as well their

delimitation according to the main traffic areas and natural traffic
boundaries.
 Areas for industry, manufacturing, etc
 Areas of influence for trade

39
  Areas of influence for shopping
 Areas of influence for education and cultural facilities
 Areas for leisure, sport and recreation.

When examining these individual areas, the historical development of the

town and region to its present state must be clearly identified and
recorded. This stock-taking is important when deciding the present and
future traffic routes, positioning of stops and interchanges and designing
the network. Within this framework, the area being examined must be
clearly delineated, the current land utilisation must be emphasised, the
population density should similarly be recorded as well as the job density
in the area being examined. The number of commuters and jobs must be
determined, all related to the existing routes of all public transport
conurbation (metropolis, city, metropolitan area or capital).

5. TRANSPORT NETWORK ASSESSMENTS

After carrying out a traffic flow survey: determine section volume,

network volume, transport relationships, number of passengers getting on
and off at major stops, direct travellers, passengers who change, and
journey times. The various networks of individual means of transport and
the overall network can be assessed. It must be examined whether:

 Transport of an equal value is available for the inhabitants of

individual districts,
 The overall network provides the optimum way of reaching the
destination,
 Reasonable and as far as possible comparable, distances between
the main traffic points exist to cater for the usual daily behaviour of
the individual (connection: home – work, home – shopping, home
– leisure),
 Previous urban development ensures economic and as far as
possible homogeneous utilisation of routes,
 Bottlenecks with overcrowding exist,
 Intersections need to be improved,
 The position of stops is optimal,
 The necessary facilities for information need to be improved at the
stops,
 The routes may need to be changed,
 There are particularly harmful environmental influences,
 A link between various individual networks is necessary.

40
5.1 Choice of a Public Transport System

When choosing suitable public transport, many influences must be

considered:
What was previously on offer in the way of public transport?
 Can the transport that has been developed, be developed further
and be made into a modern means of transport?
 Can the basic requirements of attractiveness, such as speed,
punctuality, frequency of service be fulfilled?
 Is it economic?
 Can it transport enough people?
 Is the traveller treated equally over the entire transport area?
 Is the seating provided balanced?
 Do the means of transport match up to modern environmental and
energy requirements?

It can be seen from this list that the choice of the most suitable means of
transport is in each case dependent on many components.

It can also be seen that as a result of historical development and for

economic reasons, one means of transport alone will probably seldom (
hardly ever) be able to meet all the requirements. A low population
density does not justify a suburban railway, high population density areas
however require suburban and underground railways with good train
formation possibilities.

Some basic requirements should be aimed for conurbations, namely that

the traveller in public transport is treated approximately equally to the
one in private transport, the same seating is provided, and also as
regards the ratio between seating and standing room, and also as
regards other attractiveness features.

This leads automatically to more means of transport and transport

systems in each conurbation, which however must be closely linked for
reasons of attractiveness and journey times.

The limits of the most suitable means of transport are not fixed. Apart
from its performance capability, there are other criteria which may
influence the choice of the most suitable means of transport, For
example:

41
  It may be sensible to extend underground railways as open lines
for several kilometres at the edge of the town in the less densely
populated areas (Uninterrupted transport), in order to avoid losing
time when changing.
 Environmental and energy questions many affect considerably the
choice of transport today.
 The comparative costs “road – public transport” for planned
extensions can be kept at a low level for local transport if it is
possible to avoid expensive roadwork, e.g. widening and altering
the lines due to the complicated construction of intersections and
complicated signalling systems.
 Park and ride may contribute in the decongesting of city centres.
 The performance of rail transport can be improved by in
cooperating buses into the system buses can act a feeder systems
for the rail transport.
 Future urban development can indeed influence the choice of a
higher – quality means of transport.

Since singular networks, e.g underground networks, cannot on their own

cope with all the transport requirements of a region due to the differences
in population density, buses and private transport should be integrated in
the districts further out from the town according to the requirements
there.

In the middle suburban zone, buses and possibly modern local public
transport, carbin railways with their own tracks are the most suitable
means of transport; in the actual densely populated areas, fast, means of
transport which can accommodate a high volume of passengers should
run.

The choice of a means of transport is further determined by the following

factors:

 Available space for constructing a new system within a historically

grown urban structure
 Cost for construction, maintenance and operation of the
infrastructure
 Cost for vehicles and the operation
 Level of service including punctuality, travel speed
 Impact on people and environment
 Compatibility to existing systems (Reduction of maintenance and
operating costs)

42
  Temporal and spatial flexibility in scheduling.

Means of transport and public transport lines which must be viewed

separately as far as technology is concerned should however be integrated
in the planning procedure so that the traveller can be provided with the
optimum conditions of travel and changing options.

6. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS / EVALUATION OF TRANSPORT

INFRASTRUCTURE

When evaluating transport infrastructure it becomes difficult to quantify

the benefits from the projects. This is because some of the benefits are not
tangible. These range from benefits realised in the environment, safety
(reduction in accidents) and comfort as well as convenience realized by
the society using the facility. Various standards exist for evaluating the
benefits of transportation infrastructure.

The underlying aim of CBA’s is to record all the impacts of a variety of

different service variants, to transform and weigh the results of the
impacts in an evaluation scale and finally to choose the variant with the
most positive effects for realisation.

In general for local public transport the following aspects of a new

measure in transport have to be determined in the standardised Evaluation
of Investment in traffic infrastructure in Public Transport (Germany).

a) Impacts on the users/traffic demand:

 Different of travelling time (Weighed with the amount of time,

difference from 1 to 5 minutes are considered less than greater
differences)
 Differences in the frequency of changing vehicles
 Differences of costs of travel
 Differences in cost for road accidents

b) Impacts on the citizens/environment:

 Differences of exhaust emissions
 Differences of noise emissions
 Differences in land use

c) Impacts on the public transport company:

 Differences in cost of investment

43
 Differences in cost for operation (Energy, Employees, Maintenance
of vehicles and tracks, network operation)
 Differences in revenues for tickets.

44
OPTIMIZATION, EVALUATION, COSTING AND MODELLING
Optimization of Transport Systems
As a matter of fact we cannot construct adequate infrastructure to meet all
our transport needs. This is because the construction and maintenance of
road/Transport Infrastructure is expensive. We therefore have to utilize
what we have effectively or to the maximum. We should have an
appropriate technology to operate the transport system (Traffic
Engineering).

The travel patterns of transporters are also not uniform; this results in
traffic volumes varying during different times of the day. This results in
traffic jams at peak hours and free flow conditions at night and times of
low traffic volumes.

Road Transport
Vehicle flow
In almost all transportation systems, the movement any one vehicle may
be limited by the presence of other vehicles and thus its optimum
performance may not be realised. Whenever a large number of vehicles
are on a facility, the resultant congestion may cause substantial delays to
all vehicles, increased operating costs and a higher probability of
accidents.

The understanding of the flow of many vehicles on a path is essential to

the rational design of new facilities and to the modification of existing
facilities to meet changed traffic conditions. The design characteristics of
the physical facility, the manner in which the movement of vehicles is
regulated n the facility (e.g. road traffic rules, railroad train schedules, )
and the characteristics of the vehicles ( including their human operators)
all interact to determine the performance that facility in accommodating
vehicle traffic load placed upon it.

45
 Time space diagram
It is a plot of the movement of the movement of all the vehicles on a path
in which the location of each vehicle as a function of time is specified. It
is very useful in analysing flow of vehicles and explaining primary
variables and relationships of vehicle flow. The vertical axis specifies
location along the path and the horizontal axis represents time.

Space /
Location
Length of Vehicle

Time

The bands representing vehicle motion are called trajectories. The time
space diagram unlike the distance time diagram that presents the
movement of one vehicle, such us maximum attainable acceleration from
a stop, presents the movement of all vehicles on the given path.
Moreover, the distance-time diagram usually represents a vehicle under
prescribed conditions, while a time-space diagram usually represents a
vehicle’s performance as it interacts with other vehicles, possibly a
somewhat degrade performance.

Flow concepts
The primary variables used to describe flow of vehicles on a path are
volume, speed, concentration and headway.

Volume: the number of vehicles passing a point on a path per unit time,
hence it is measured in units of vehicles per unit time. Measured by
placing a counter at a point where the volume is desired or by manual
counting. The count may be of vehicles on one path or many parallel

46
paths (e.g. the volume on one lane of a street or on all lanes / one
direction or many directions) It should thus be clearly specified, (e.g.
persons per hour, vehicles per hour)

q = n/T
Where q = Traffic volume past a point
n = Number of vehicles passing point in time interval T
T = Time interval of observation
The volume is usually an average measure, since flow is usually irregular
traffic counts are usually taken over periods that are sufficiently long that
only minor variations in the volume would result from small changes in
the time interval of the count.

Concentration/ Density:
It is the average number of vehicles per unit length of the path at a
moment in time and it is defined by;

K = n/L
Where k = Concentration of vehicles on roadway of length Lat a point of
time.
n = number of vehicles on road
L = length of road

Usually the average concentration on the length of the road way is used.

Speed: Used to characterize the movement of the many vehicles flowing

on a path. The most useful of these seems to be space-mean speed- the
mean or average speed of the vehicles obtained by dividing the total
distance travelled by the total time required:

Fomular
1

Where U = space – mean speed

Si = distance travelled by vehicles i on road way (i’ = 1, 2, 3, ….n )
Mi = time spent by vehicle I on the road way (i’ = 1, 2, 3,….n )

The time – mean speed is the mean of vehicle speeds passing a point on
the road in a particular interval.

It is defined as

47
 Fomular
2

Where V = time mean speed

v I = speed of vehicles I at a point on roadway.

The space – mean speed considers the movement of the vehicles over the
entire section while the time-mean speed considers the speeds of vehicles
at only one point. It must be stressed that the space – mean speed is by far
the most important for vehicle flow analysis.

Diagram
1

Headway:
The time headway of two vehicles is the time interval between the
moment at which the front of one vehicle passes a point to the moment
the front of the next vehicle passes the same point. Since there are usually
differences in headway times between vehicles, the average headway is
usually taken. It is also closely approximated by the reciprocal of volume.

ht = 1/q

Where ht = mean time headway

Another headway concept often used is the distance headway i.e. the
distance between the front of one vehicle and the following vehicle. The
average distance is usually taken to represent as the mean distance
headway. It is also closely approximated by the reciprocal of the
concentration, and the two are precisely equal if the distance used for the
concentration measurement defines the locations of the fronts of two
vehicles at the time of measurement.

hk = 1/k

Where hk = mean distance headway

Fundamental Flow Relationship

There is one relationship between volume – speed – and concentration.

48
q’ = k’u

This relationship is called the fundamental flow relationship.

CONTROL OF VEHICLE FLOWS

This is done to ensure that there is smooth flow and to optimise the
existing transport infrastructure.

Channelization:

The basic idea is to segregate vehicle movements into categories such as

the movement of vehicles in that category are similar as possible. This
concept underlies the separation of traffic on a street into two directions
each placed on its own section of the road.

Speed limit and related controls:

There is often need to restrict the speed of vehicles in specific locations,

for rail and road systems, this is most often due to the presence of curves
in the path or gradients which would be unsafe at higher speeds. Warning
signs indicating increased probability of dangerous conditions are
specially common along roads.

Vehicle control on way links:

This is necessary to ensure that vehicles flow without heating one

another. Speed control is necessary to ensure smooth flow. There should
be set speeds for getting into highways to avoid interfering with flow.
The distance of headway between vehicles should be set. At places where
the headway is very close lower speed should be set.

Typical Bottleneck Situations

Number of cars using the exit exceeds the capacity of the exit
Natural bottleneck creates tailback ( Steep slope )
Inflow exceeds capacity

Dispatching systems: route to act as waiting area

Comprehensive traffic control system, the route as a closed loop system.
Shift of direction: reversible lane system.

49
Vehicle control at intersections:

Almost all vehicular transport systems have intersections where the

channels of vehicles on different way-link paths merge and diverge. Road
and rail intersections present a very difficult situation in road and rail
transport. There are two types of intersections, signalised and non
signalised intersections. In non signalised intersections the driver decides
when to enter into the intersection. For signalised intersections the traffic
lights control the vehicle movements so that conflicting movements are
avoided.

Green- proceed
Yellow- allowing entry
Red - Stop

Cycle length is the time period required for traffic lights to pass through
all the different indications displayed. Cycle time divided into phases
during which one or more movements can occur.

Isolated junctions: fix time traffic control

Coordinated traffic lights: fix time control
Cordinated traffic lights: traffic dependent
Dynamic network control

Green wave
Conditions:
Concerted cycle time for all junctions to be coordinated
Distance between junctions points: <= 750m from stop line to stop line (
Further distance result in increasing disintegration of the platoon. )
Distance between the junctions should be as uniform as possible.
umber of phases per junction should be low, Turn off flows do not have
there own phase
Avoid perturbating influence of slow vehicles ( number of lanes per
direction to be coordinated: >= 2)
Turn off flows in junction area to be lead on special lane, respectively
consider turn ban.

Information:

It is very important to have travellers fully informed of the transport

network and conditions on the road. In developed countries are fitted with
GPS global positioning systems that relay information from the satellites

50
on the position of the vehicle during travel time. The system also has the
full road network and thus guides the driver on the shortest routes to
reach a destination.

Information given to passengers will also include weather conditions,

accidents, and parking space available in urban centres. Weather
conditions are essential as travel speeds tend to be lower during wet road
surface conditions, under this conditions the travellers are given
information on the speed to take during travel and with this smooth flow
will be realized. Accident information or congestion warning systems are
essential to enable travellers choose alternative routes and still reach there
destinations in time. Parking information is very essential as drivers will
know in advance the parking space available at all parking spaces and
therefore select.

Application of Traffic detectors

Traffic examination
Traffic counts, traffic statistics, traffic analysis & traffic forecasts
Traffic planning
Interurban network, Urban road network, Streets of houses & junctions
Traffic control via signalling
Green period requirement, adjustment of green period, Signal program
selection or signal program formation, passage programs.
Traffic control on extra urban areas
Tunnel control, congestion and warning devices, corridor control
systems, speed control systems, Toll stations.
Traffic control on urban roads
Parking guidance systems, parking handling systems & Tidal flow
operations
Individual route guidance
Travel time determination, Analysis of traffic patterns and navigation
systems.

51
Transportation

Category
navigation

Traffic
infomation

Collective
control
Short Regional
distance travel 50-
travel <50 100 Long distance > 200

52
4. TRANSPORTATION INVENTORY
Studies done to collect data in transportation systems, to support
transportation planning. Three types of data are usually collected to
support transportation planning:

 Data on the transportation systems or networks over which traffic

is accommodated.
 Inventories of travel activities.
 Inventories of land use and associated human activities

4.1 Data on the transportation systems or networks over which traffic is

accommodated
This inventory is usually done by various transport organisations under
which the responsibility of managing the transport facilities falls. The
network inventory thus is oriented towards identifying all of the fixed
facilities in the existence in an area, including their location, length,
design features as width, capacity, number of tracks or lanes, special
characteristics such as type of signals and design speeds, and the
locations of intersections or points of interchange with other facilities.

Condition Survey, Roads & Drainage

These are surveys conducted in order to assess possible problems and
damages in terms of earthworks, soil stability, soils and materials, etc.
The information on road condition survey includes the following:
 Cracking
 Ravelling
 Potholing and patching
 Rut depth
 Shoulder condition and edge loss
 Side drain condition

Road inventory is usually carried out to acquire a detailed understanding

of the status of roads in order to:
 Identify changes with respect to previous studies
 Identify problems in order to formulate improvement methods
 Make preliminary estimation of improvement and maintenance
costs
 Calculate vehicle operating and time costs.

The data collected from inventory includes

53
Terrain / road class
Pavement type, width and condition
Shoulder type, width and condition
Formation and ditches
Bridges and culverts
Evidence of flooding, overtopping slope failures, tectonic activity
Availability of construction materials
Condition of drainage structures

Condition survey, structures

This is a study on the condition of bridges, the data collected will include;
The name, location, length, width, type of bridge deck, number and
arrangement of spans, type of abutments and piers.
Inspection on the various parts of the bridge and assessment regarding
problems and nature of concrete beams, steels beams and bracings deck
(tp surface and sofit) , Side walk and railing, drainage of deck, bearing
pads , expansion joints, approach slabs, abutments, type of piers, footing
pier caps, piles, presence of slope protection, gabions , riprap mattress.
Assessment of hydraulic adequacy.
Visual assessment of structural adequacy
Come up with recommendations for rehabilitation.

Hydrological and Hydraulic study

This is important for:
Determine the location and capacity of drainage structures on the road
project.
Verify the capacity of existing bridges and culverts
Assess flood prone areas and identify remedial measures.
Determine the parameters for longitudinal drainage.

54
DRAINAGE DITCHES SURVEY LOG SHEET

LEFT VERGE RIGHT VERGE

CHAINAGE DESCRIPTION/ CHAINAGE DESCRIPTION/
CONDITION CONDITION
0 + 000 Trapezoidal drain 0 + 000
Trapezoidal drain in good
to silted and to
condition
1 + 380 overgrown 1 +380
Inlet to cross
culvert, approach Outfall drain in good
1 + 380 1 + 380
drain in good condition and functional
condition
1 + 380 1 + 380
Trapezoidal drain Trapezoidal drain in good
to to
in good condition condition
1 + 740 1 + 740
Inlet to cross Outfall drain, ponding at
1+ 740 1+ 740
culvert, overgrown the outlet

1+740 1+740
Side drain in good Side drain in good
to to
condition condition
1 + 987 1 + 987
Inlet to cross
Outfall drain I good
1 + 987 culvert. Inlet 1 + 987
condition and functional
blocked
1 + 987 1 + 987
Side drain in good Side drain in good
to to
condition condition
2+ 375 3 + 213
Access pipe No clear outfall drain and
culvert. Side drain outlet of culvert completely
2 + 375 3 + 213
and access culvert blocked with dumped
heavily silted material.
2 + 375 3 + 213
Side drain in good Side drain in good
to to
condition condition
3 + 213 3 + 552
Inlet to cross
culvert. Inlet
Outfall drain in good
overgrown and
3+213 3 + 552 condition but scoured at the
completely blocked
culvert outlet
with dumped
material
3 + 213 Side drain in good 3 + 552 No drain, road in fill.

55
 to condition but to
3 + 552 blocked with 4 + 153
dumped material at
various points.
Inlet to cross
culvert. Inlet
Outfall drain in good
3 + 552 overgrown and 4 + 153
condition
blocked with
dumped material

56
CHAINAGE Type Length No. Size Direction Angle of Headwall/inlet/outlet Culvert
Culvert No. of (M) of of of Flow Pipe to Details and conditions conditions,
Date of Culver Pipes Pipes C/W CL general
inspect. t (mm) (degrees) conditions and
LHS Verge RHS Verge Remarks
0 + 020 RHS
1

12/2/04

1 + 384
2

12/2/04

1 + 740
3

12/2/04

57
1+ 987 Structure ok,
but minor
90 Inlet structure
scouring and
completely
Cross 14.7 1 600 L to R undermining of Pipe sound
blocked and
4 apron. Fill
buried in spoil.
loose and
eroding

12/2/04

58
Soils and Materials Investigation
The main objectives of soils and material investigations is to:

 Identify the sub grade and pavement road condition.

 Identify suitable materials for road construction purpose.

Procedure
Dig trial pits along the road alignment to identify the characteristics of the
different pavement layers: Surfacing course, Sub-base, Sub grade.

Take disturbed samples for laboratory testing: Identification (Sieve

analysis, natural moisture content, sand equivalent or Atterberg Limits.

The strength parameters (Proctor / CBR study) performed on each

characteristic soil.

4.2 Inventories of travel activities.

Travel surveys are made to gather information on trips made in a
metropolitan area. Trips in an area are classified into three types. Internal
trips, trips within a study area, they have their origin destination and
within the cordon area. External trips have one end inside the cordon area
and one outside. There are also through trips that pass through the cordon
area, but use the facilities of transport.

Screen lines are usually set to check the extent to which the sample of
trips usually yield reasonable estimate of results.

There are many techniques for obtaining information on trips within an

urban area. These include home interviews, telephone surveys, and mail
surveys. Usually a small fraction of all households or travellers is
interviewed and the result is adjusted to represent the whole population.
e.g 1/100 I interviewed, then data multiplied by 100 to represent the
whole area.

Traffic surveys and analysis

Done to estimate the volume and composition of traffic, it is required as
an input to the evaluation of economic benefits and for purposes of
preliminary pavement design. Usually carried out at junctions.

59
The data is then analysed and assessed separately for normal, diverted,
and generated traffic annually over the project life. The forecast will take
all factors having possible influence on traffic volume and composition:
 Changes in vehicle categories and fleet composition, in particular
due to the transportation market trends and to improvements of
road /transport infrastructure conditions.
 Population factors, distribution and growth rates.
 Economic factors: National and regional development, agriculture,
industry, trade and tourism development.
 Socio and socio-economic factors: access to school, to medical and
to administrative centres.

Axle load data is also undertaken to:

 Establish the base line distribution of axle weights and average
standard axle weight per vehicle, to form an input for pavement
design.
 Establish vehicle loading patterns for VOC and transport demand
estimation purposes
 Estimate the pace of deterioration of existing and new pavement.

4.3 Inventories of land use and associated human activities

This includes the type of land use within any travel zone, the area of land
devoted to the transport facility. Also additional data such as parking
facilities, street access. This will also include a study of the
environmental impact.

The purpose of environmental study is to collect information on the

environment around the transport facilities. And also effect of use of the
facility to the environment. The following data on environment will
include:
Information on land classification
Information about the natural resources in the project area
Information about population in the project area, regarding possible
impact of the road on these population, safety requirements, water and air
quality, noise etc.

Groups experiencing different transport costs

Users
Direct prices (Fares, tolls, etc.)
Time consumed
Discomfort of travellers (fatigue)

60
Loss and damage of freight

System owner-operator
Direct costs of construction, operation, maintenance

Nonuser
Changes in land value, productivity, etc.
Environmental degradation: ( Noise, pollution, aesthetics, etc.)

Government
Subsidies and capital grants
Loss of tax revenues (e.g., when road or other publicly owned facility
replaces tax paying land use)

Region
Usually indirect, through reorganisation of the land uses, altered rate of
growth, etc.

FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS

The fundamental element of fixed and variable costs is the cost out put
curve. This curve relates the total cost of providing a particular goof or
service, - in our case a transportation service to one or more measures of
the amount and characteristics of the good or service provided- in this
case, again a measure of the quantity and quality of transportation service.

The cost is usually the total monetary cost experienced by the firm or
agency providing the service, although the cost may also include other
costs such as value of travellers’ time etc). The measure of output varies
considerably among applications, but at the minimum includes a measure
of the quantity, of transportation service provided (e.g., the ton-miles of
freight carried).

More complicated specifications of output may involve many variables,

such as the tons of freight carried broken into commodities and distance
carried and number of passenger.

61
An example of a cost output curve, involving a single measure of cost and
a single measure of output is presented below;

Costs VS Output

14000
12000
10000
Cost, $ / day

8000 x, Output/day
F-Costs, $/day
6000 Vx
T-Costs, $/day
4000
2000 Fx

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
x, output / day

In many situations the cost is found to increase slightly with increasing

output and then increase very substantially after the output exceeds a
certain level.

In cost-output functions such as this, where there is only a quantity

measure of output, it is presumed that all other characteristics of the
output remain fixed; that is the nature of product, such as the quality of
transport service, remains unchanged with quantity of output. This is
often described as economic analysis as being homogeneous. The upper
portion of fig 1 presents the total costs as a function of quantity of output.
The total cost can be divided into fixed cost and variable cost.

The graph below is also another way of presenting costs as a function of

output. This is done by either the average marginal cost which is the total
cost of a give output.

62
ACx =

And by marginal cost, which is the additional cost associated with the
production of an additional unitof output. The marginal cost of the Xth
unit of output is:

MC(x) = TC(x-1)
The equation above is for marginal cost in situations where the output
must b produced in integer quantities. However in most cases the quantity
of output is treated as a continous variable, e.g. trains per day, over a
given line and output could be measured as an average over a fairly long
period of time, under his circumstances, non integer output are possible.

MC(x) =

One additional concept is the average variable cost, defined as;

AVCx = VC(x)/x

For this case the average costs decrease over a range of volume say from
0 to 10 buses per day, and there after increase.

63
DISTRIBUTION OF CARRIER NETWORKS
Transport infrastructure plays a key role in the economy of a region. Its
role is so important that all areas with high concentration of economic
activities are always characterised by dense road networks.

Taking an example of Kenya the transport network is mostly concentrated

in areas with rich agricultural potential. The transport network in Kenya
consists of the Rail network, tarmac road network, and other lower
standard roads. Since the road network follows the colonial legacy, they
tend to run parallel to the rail network.
Kenya relies greatly on agriculture; hence areas with poor agriculture
potential are often lagging behind in transport infrastructure.

As the country has only one third of this area being productive, namely
central, parts of the rift valley and Western regions and a section of the
coast, it is only these areas that are well served with transport
infrastructure. In other words, the main carrier links the coast region with
the western region, passing through the central region. Parts of the
country that are semiarid and hence less productive, the transport
infrastructure that is there is mainly for administrative purposes. Thus
roads from this area often receive very little attention and are usually
poorly maintained.

When comparing two regions to assess the level of development in terms

of infrastructure, it is always important to find realistic ways of
comparing the road networks. Usually the roads will be classified into
Tarmac roads, Gravel roads and access roads. A unit such as number of
Kilometres of paved, gravel or access roads per unit area (Square
Kilometre) can give a realistic comparative measure. Units also such as
kilometres of road per household will give more realistic figures in cases
where the area is either sparsely populated or forests area.

One can also give accessibility standards to places, this will involve
ranking places in terms of there importance. With this ranking method
there will be ---------------------------

Refer to Professor Fischer’s Notes

Give a brief description of the road network in Kenya?

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