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2017. 7. 10

JP Morgan Chase의 미 6월 고용지표 평가

남경옥 (3705-6234)

 JP Morgan 의 수석 글로벌 이코노미스트인 Bruce Kasman 은 금번 고용보고서를 통해

① 미 경제 성장 모멘텀이 강화되고 ② 고용시장이 타이트해졌으나 ③ 임금지표에서
유의미한 물가상승 압력 신호가 관측되지 않았다고 평가
 고용시장 개선으로 하반기 근원 CPI가 2% 가까이 상승할 것으로 전망하나, 최근 물가부진이
일시적 현상에 그치지 않고 지속될 가능성에 대한 우려 점증으로 물가 전망에 불확실성 확대

 미국 담당 수석 이코노미스트인 Michael Feroli는 잠재 유휴노동력, 생산 자동화,

세계화에 따른 교섭력 약화 등을 임금상승 부진 요인으로 제기
 `15, `16년과 달리, 금년 상반기 고용시장이 견조함에도 불구 임금상승 압력이 미약한 점에
대해서는 의문

I. Introduction
There was lots of good news in the employment numbers. The non-farm payrolls numbers were
well above expectations. The participation rate increased, resulting in the unemployment rate
increasing very slightly. Finally wage inflation was very well restrained. The combination of
these increase the probability that the FOMC will not raise rates in September, although they may
decide to begin reducing the size of the B/S at that time, both consistent with the conclusions of the
June 14th Instant Note.
Bruce Kasman’s monthly conference call on the employment data was unusually good, I have
excerpted comments below. These often represent what appear to be his real immediate reactions
rather than the sometimes more consensus like written comments by his colleagues thereafter. For
comparison, I have included selected comments from his colleague Mike Feroli’s report “Good
hours, but bad pay”.

II. Bruce Kasman, head of economic research, JPMorgan Chase:

“The first clear message is that growth is solid. The second message is that labor markets are tight,
but there still is no meaningful sign that wage inflation is becoming an issue here. The Fed is
moving to reduce the size of its re-investment, we think that is not sensitive to the inflation outcome.
The rate movements that we have built in, one for the second half of this year, does depend on this.
The low inflation readings aren’t a message of weak demand; it gives us some confidence that the
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inflation numbers are going to move back toward the trajectory that we and the Fed are expecting. . .
The government sector, where you had the biggest rebound, with a big increase in state and local
employment, which does suggest some rebound, maybe not in the 2Q, but in the 3Q, in a sector
that has definitely been holding back GDP growth. The wage inflation story is one in which there
really isn’t much pressure, a little less than we expected and there were downward revisions. This
is not really any kind of pressure, but it’s not something to be worried about in terms of labor income.
We’re running about 5% on the payroll proxy, a solid number for the 2Q, particularly with inflation
readings on the low side. I tend to not put too much weight on the unemployment rate increase; I
don’t think that changes the picture that we’ve got a tightening labor market. . . We have continued
to get a string of low inflation readings. We’re solidifying the case for a rebound in growth. Most
important in the first half of the year is the cap-ex rebound; boosted by a rebound in the energy sector.
Inventory is not showing any building in the 2Q; that is surprising us – should be a positive in the
3Q . . . The issue linking core inflation and growth is whether tight labor markets are going to drive
higher inflation; it’s in our forecast. We’re looking for that to bring the run rates on inflation back
closer to 2% in the 2H2017. On the growth side, we’re pretty comfortable with our forecast. On
the inflation side, it’s harder to be all that comfortable. There may be a story that’s more
fundamental with the persistence of low inflation – the global drags which look like they’re fading,
may continue to have some lingering effect. We have to ask the question ‘What happens here if
core inflation does stay low?’. This will raise questions for the Fed. If it’s linked to low wage
inflation even with tighter labor markets, it’s going to raise questions, about the structure of the
economy and about the underlying nature of the Philip’s Curve. If we get a situation where the
next few months delivers low core inflation readings, in the range of 0.1% on a monthly basis that
will probably be enough to give the Fed reason to pause on the 2H tightening. The rate story does
depend in an important way on getting a clear signs that there’s an upward trajectory in inflation.
That’s more uncertain at this point.”

III. Michael Feroli, Chief US economist, JPMorgan Chase:

“Job growth was solid last month, though wage gains remain disappointing. The overall takeaway
for the growth picture is that the economy seems to have finished Q2 with decent momentum and
fears of a sharp slowing in Q3 should be mollified. The supply side malaise continued in Q2, as
productivity growth looks to be close to zero. There is no shortage of explanation as to why wage
growth remains tepid – shadow slack, reduced bargaining power due to globalization, de-
unionization, automation, etc. – but what is puzzling is that wage growth was clearly accelerating in
2015 and 2016. Why it would slow only in the last two quarters is a mystery.”

IV. Concluding comments:

Clearly Bruce is concerned about the uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook; this would seem
to be the main risk in their forecast. Mike thinks low wage growth is a mysterious puzzle. Their
forecast expects that will change. They, and the Fed, would be surprised if low wage growth

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continues despite tight labor conditions. Bruce also pointed out concerns about low reading in the
owners’ imputed rent category in the CPI.
With energy prices having trended down throughout most of the 1H2017, it is likely that at some
point they will get so low as to cut into energy sector cap-ex. This puts downside risk in JPM and
the consensus growth forecasts, which may add to the dis-inflation concerns.

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