COVID-19

Diamond Princess
infection rate
suggests China’s
reported infections
are too low

www.cascend.com
A floating clinical trial?
Quarantined cruise ships give us some of
the best looks at the COVID-19 coronavirus

This is as close to a clinical trial

as we will likely get

We can study rates of infections directly

An isolated, fixed-number population

No interaction with other populations

(different from, say, Wuhan where 5m people
were said to have fled before quarantine)

And free from lack of testing kits, medical staff,

Chinese government determinations of
“acceptable diagnosis techniques”, self-treating
patients, and other data influences
 The Diamond Princess cruise ship was the
largest controlled COVID-19 coronavirus
infected population outside of China

20% of the ship were infected over three weeks

This suggests the rate of official reported

infections (largely in China) is likely too low

This corroborates well with what

our models have already been saying

Two passengers died last night from the

Diamond Princess (male 87, female 84)
after being airlifted to a hospital
-- implies a 1-2% death rate

And 14 days might not be long enough to

conclusively prevent COVID-19 transmission,
from the Diamond Princess experience
(although passengers have now been released)
 Growth rates of Chinese infections and
Diamond Princess don’t match

Diamond Princess
infections grow
at this rate

Why don’t the

Chinese infections
grow at this rate??

(if they’re the same virus, slopes should match)

 The rate of Diamond Princess infections
suggest worldwide infections are likely
much higher than official reports

(On log charts, lines with the same slope

have the same growth rates)

The Diamond Princess growth is very

stable along the growth line versus the
official data which doesn’t seem to follow
a growth trend

And extending the fitted Diamond Princess

line back to Patient Zero shows the first
patient likely occurred on 21 January 2020
– in very good agreement with the actual
assumed Patient Zero arriving on the
cruise on the afternoon of 20 January
Our model fits the data well (log scale)

Hubei (China)
The rate is
changing?

(this is just Hubei Province, the region in China which

contains Wuhan, and thus has the most local data)
Cascend has modeled Wuhan
coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
outcomes in data format
AND research commentary:
Over 21,000 rows each with
infections, deaths and recoveries

Daily projections each scenario

through February 26th 2022

27 different scenarios regarding

quarantines and effectiveness

Based on official reported data

Updated at least weekly

(and currently daily) as inputs change

CSV or SQL formats

 Fundamental
data-driven
insights

sales@cascend.com
www.cascend.com