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Waiting Line Analysis

for Service Improvement
Operations Management - 5th Edition

Roberta
R b t R Russell
ll & B
Bernard
dWW. Taylor,
T l III

Beni Asllani
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Lecture Outline

Š Elements of Waiting Line Analysis

Š Waiting Line Analysis and Quality
Š Single Server Models
Š Multiple Server Model

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Waiting Line Analysis

Š Operating characteristics
„ average values for characteristics that describe the
performance of a waiting line system
Š Queue
„ A single waiting line
Š Waiting line system consists of
„ Arrivals
„ Servers
„ Waiting line structures

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Elements of a Waiting Line

Š Calling population
„ Source of customers
„ Infinite - large enough that one more customer can
always arrive to be served
„ Finite - countable number of potential customers
Š Arrival
a rate
a e ((λλ)
„ Frequency of customer arrivals at waiting line
system
„ Typically follows Poisson distribution

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Elements of a Waiting Line (cont.)

Š Service time
„ Often follows negative exponential
distribution
„ Average service rate = μ
Š Arrival rate (λ
(λ) must be less than service
rate (μ
(μ) or system never clears out

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Elements of a Waiting Line (cont.)

Š Queue discipline
„ Order in which customers are served
„ First come, first served is most common
Š Length can be infinite or finite
„ I fi it is
Infinite i mostt common
„ Finite is limited by some physical

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Basic Waiting Line Structures

Š Channels are the number of parallel servers

„ Single channel
„ Multiple channels
Š Phases denote number of sequential servers the
customer must go through
„ Single phase
„ Multiple phases
Š Steady state
„ A constant, average value for performance characteristics that
system will reach after a long time

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Operating Characteristics
NOTATION OPERATING
CHARACTERISTIC
L Average number of customers in the system (waiting and
being served)
Lq Average number of customers in the waiting line
W Average time a customer spends in the system (waiting and
being served)
Wq Average time a customer spends waiting in line
P0 Probability of no (zero) customers in the system
Pn Probability of n customers in the system
ρ Utilization rate; the proportion of time the system is in use
Table 16.1

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Cost Relationship in Waiting

Line Analysis
Total cost

Service cost
xpected costs
Ex

Waiting Costs

Level of service
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Waiting Line Costs and Quality

Service
Š Traditional view is that the level of
service should coincide with minimum
point on total cost curve
Š TQM approach is that absolute quality
service will be the most cost-
cost-effective in
the long run

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Single-server Models

Š All assume Poisson arrival rate

Š Variations
„ Exponential service times
„ General (or unknown) distribution of service times
„ Constant service times
„ Exponential service times with finite queue length
„ Exponential service times with finite calling
population

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Basic Single-
Single-Server
Model: Assumptions
ƒ Poisson arrival rate
ƒ Exponential service times
ƒ First--come, first
First first--served queue discipline
ƒ Infinite queue length
ƒ Infinite calling population
ƒ λ = mean arrival
i l rate
t
ƒ μ = mean service rate

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Formulas for Single-

Single-
Server Model
Probabilityy that no customers λ
are in the system (either in the P0 = 1 -
μ
queue or being served)
n
λ
Pn = • P0
Probability of exactly n μ
customers in the system λ
n
λ
= 1-
μ μ

Average number of λ
L =
customers in the system μ -
λ
Average number of λ2
Lq =
customers in the waiting line μ(μ - λ)

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Formulas for Single-

Single-
Server Model (cont.)
Average
g time a customer 1 L
W = =
spends in the queuing system μ-λ λ

Average time a customer λ

spends waiting in line to Wq =
be served μ(μ - λ)

Probability that the server λ

is busy and the customer ρ =
μ
has to wait

Probability that the server I = 1-ρ

is idle and a customer can λ
be served = 1- = P0
μ
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A Single-
Single-Server Model

Gi
Given λ = 24 per h
hour, μ = 30 customers
t per h
hour

Probability of no λ 24
customers in the P0 = 1 - = 1- =
0.20 μ 30
system

Average number 24
λ
of customers in L = = =4
μ-λ 30 - 24
the system

Average number λ2 (24)2

of customers Lq = = = 3.2
μ(μ - λ) 30(30 - 24)
waiting in line

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A Single-
Single-Server Model

A
Average ti
time iin the
th 1 1
W = = = 0.167 hour
system per customer μ - λ 30 - 24

Average time waiting λ 24

Wq = = = 0.133
in line per customer μ(μ - λ
λ)) 30(30 - 24)

Probability that the λ 24

server will be busy and ρ = = = 0.80
μ 30
the customer must wait

Probability the
I = 1 - ρ = 1 - 0.80 = 0.20
server will be idle

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Service Improvement Analysis

Š Possible Alternatives
„ Another employee to pack up purchases

z service rate will increase from 30 customers to 40

customers per hour
z waiting time will reduce to only 2.25 minutes
„ Another checkout counter
z arrival rate at each register will decrease from 24 to 12 per
hour
z customer waiting time will be 1.33 minutes
Š Determining whether these improvements are worth
the cost to achieve them is the crux of waiting line
analysis
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Constant Service Times

Š Constant service times

occur with machinery
and automated
equipment
Š Constant service times
are a special case of the
single-server model with
undefined service times

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Operating Characteristics for

Constant Service Times

Probability that no customers λ

P0 = 1 -
are in system μ

Average number of λ2
Lq =
customers in queue 2μ(μ - λ)

Average number of λ
L = Lq +
customers in system μ

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Operating Characteristics for

Constant Service Times (cont.)

Average time customer Lq

spends in queue Wq =
λ

Average time customer 1

spends in the system W = Wq +
μ

Probability that the λ

ρ =
server is busy μ

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Constant Service Times:

Example
A t
Automated
t d car wash h with
ith service
i time
ti = 4.5
4 5 min
i
Cars arrive at rate λ = 10/hour (Poisson)
μ = 60/4.5 = 13.3/hour

λ2 (10)2
Lq = = 2(13.3)(13.3 - 10) = 1.14 cars waiting
2μ(μ - λ)

Lq
Wq = = 1.14/10 = .114 hour or 6.84 minutes
λ

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Finite Queue Length

ƒ A physical limit exists on length of queue
ƒ M = maximum number in queue
ƒ Service rate does not have to exceed arrival rate (μ > λ)
to obtain steady-state conditions

Probability that no 1 - λ/μ

P0 =
customers are in system 1 - (λ/μ)M + 1
n
P b bili off exactly
Probability l n λ
customers in system Pn = (P
(P0) for n ≤ M
μ

Average number of λ/μ 1)(λ/μ)M + 1

(M + 1)(λ
L= -
customers in system 1 - λ/μ 1 - (λ/μ)M + 1

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Finite Queue Length (cont.)

Let PM = probability a customer will not join system

Average number of λ (1
(1-- PM)
customers in queue Lq = L -
μ

Average time customer L

spends in system W =
λ(1
λ(
λ ((1 - PM)

Average time customer 1

Wq = W -
spends in queue μ

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Finite Queue: Example

First National Bank has waiting space for only 3 drive in window
cars. λ = 20, μ = 30, M = 4 cars (1 in service + 3 waiting)

Probability that
no cars are in 1 - λ/μ 1 - 20/30
P0 = = = 0.38
the system 1- (λ/μ)M + 1 1 - (20/30)5

Probability of n=M 4
exactly
y 4 cars in λ 20
Pn = (P
(P0) = (0
(0.38)
38) =0
0.076
076
the system μ 30

Average number λ/μ 1)(λ/μ)M + 1

(M + 1)(λ
of cars in the L= - = 1.24
system 1 - λ/μ 1 - (λ/μ)M + 1

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Finite Queue: Example (cont.)

Average number of λ (1
(1-- PM)
cars in the queue Lq = L - = 0.62
μ

Average time a car L

spends in the system W = = 0.067 hr
λ(1
λ ((1 - PM)

Average time a car 1

Wq = W - = 0.033 hr
spends in the queue μ

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Finite Calling Population

Arrivals originate from a finite (countable) population
N = population size

1
Probability that no P0 = n
N
N! λ
customers are in system
Σ
n=0 (N - n)! μ
n
Probability of exactly n N! λ
customers in system Pn = P0 where n = 1, 2, ..., N
(N - n)! μ

Average number of λ+μ

Lq = N - (1
(1-- P0)
customers in queue λ

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Finite Calling Population (cont.)

Average number of
L = Lq + (1 - P0)
customers in system

Average time customer Lq

spends in queue Wq =
(N - L) λ

Average time customer 1

W = Wq +
spends in system μ

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Finite Calling Population:

Example
20 trucks which operate an average of 200 days before breaking
down (λ = 1/200 day = 0.005/day)
Mean repair time = 3.6 days (μ = 1/3.6 day = 0.2778/day)

Probability that no
P0 = 0.652
trucks are in the system
Average number of
Lq = 0.169
trucks in the queue
A
Average number
b off
L = 0.169 + (1 - 0.652) = .520
trucks in system
Average time truck Average time truck
spends in queue spends in system
Wq = 1.74 days W = 5.33 days

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Basic Multiple-server Model

Two or more independent
p servers serve a singleg waiting
g line
Poisson arrivals, exponential service, infinite calling
population
sμ > λ
1
P0 =
n=s-1 n s

Σ 1 λ 1 λ sμ
+ s! sμ - λ
n! μ μ
n=0

Computing P0 can be time-consuming.

Tables can used to find P0 for selected values of ρ and s.
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Basic Multiple-server
Model (cont.)
n
1 λ
Probability of exactly P0, for n > s
s! sn-s μ
n customers in the Pn = n
system 1 λ
P0, for n > s
n! μ

s
Probability an arriving 1 λ sμ
customer must wait Pw = P
s! μ sμ - λ 0

Average number of λμ((λ/μ)s

λμ λ
L = P0 +
customers in system (s - 1)!(
1)!(ssμ - λ )2 μ

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Basic Multiple-server Model

(cont.)
Average time customer L
W =
spends in system λ

Average number of λ
Lq = L -
customers in queue μ

Average time customer 1 Lq

spends in queue Wq = W - =
μ λ

Utilization factor ρ = λ /sμ

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Multiple-Server System:
Multiple-
Example
Student Health Service Waiting Room
λ = 10 students per hour
μ = 4 students per hour per service representative
s = 3 representatives
sμ = (3)(4) = 12

Probability no students
P0 = 0.045
are in the system

Number of students in
L = 6
the service area

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Multiple-Server System:
Multiple-
Example (cont.)

Waiting time in the

W = L / λ = 0.60
service area

Number of students
Lq = L - λ/μ = 3.5
waiting to be served

A
Average ti
time students
t d t
Wq = Lq/λ = 0.35 hours
will wait in line

Probability that a
Pw = 0.703
student must wait

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Multiple-Server System:
Multiple-
Example (cont.)
ƒ Add a 4th server to improve service
ƒ Recompute operating characteristics
ƒ P0 = 0.073 prob of no students
ƒ L = 3.0 students
ƒ W = 0.30 hour, 18 min in service
ƒ Lq = 0.5
0 5 students waiting
ƒ Wq = 0.05 hours, 3 min waiting, versus 21 earlier
ƒ Pw = 0.31 prob that a student must wait

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