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Will Frontier Markets Deliver Stellar Returns like Emerging Markets have?
Frontier Markets: Overlooked Opportunity?
Emerging market equities have experienced quite a ride since the 1990s. While the road has been rocky,
with the Asian currency crisis being just one event, the eventual reward for long‐term investors was
significant. Today, emerging market equities have earned a place in many investors’ portfolios. Frontier
markets may be embarking on a similar journey, with the potential for long‐term rewards for those who
follow the less traveled path of this risky asset class.
In some ways, frontier markets aren’t as foreign as one might think. For instance, companies with global
franchises, such as Nestle, Guinness, Unilever, Total, Cadbury, and Standard Chartered, all have
subsidiaries or related companies listed in frontier markets, which are the markets beyond both the
developed and emerging worlds.
Another potentially major benefit to frontier markets exposure is diversification. Each frontier market is
much more of a local market than a bit player on the global stage. In Sri Lanka, a 25‐year civil war
against an insurgency group, the Tamil Tigers, came to an end in May 2009. This led to an immediate
pop in the Sri Lanka market and will likely lead to a positive re‐rating of the country over the long‐term.
This benefit was not realized by investors in developed and emerging markets. You had to be invested in
frontier markets to benefit. That said, disasters like Zimbabwe, where Robert Mugabe has trampled
human rights and pursued economic policies that have caused meteoric inflation, are part of the frontier
markets landscape as well. Overall, because of the idiosyncratic risks affecting each frontier market,
when one calculates frontier markets’ aggregate volatility, they are less volatile as a group than
emerging markets and about equal in volatility to developed markets.
Certainly, frontier markets come with significant risks. Frequently the risks are known and priced into
the securities, and they are not necessarily different than the risks one sees in emerging and developed
markets. In fact, many investors have enjoyed the benefits of exposure to emerging markets in recent
years but view frontier markets as too risky, too “out there.” Avoiding frontier markets doesn’t
guarantee avoiding country specific or systemic risks in the developing world. Venezuela was part of the
MSCI Emerging Markets Index when President Hugo Chavez decided to nationalize its main oil company.
It is now a frontier market. When Russia shut down its stock exchange several times in the fall of 2008, it
was part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Russia remains an emerging market today.
In the developed world, risks are frequently not properly priced into markets because of the perception
of stability. The risk of a collapse in the U.S. banking system certainly wasn’t priced into the markets in
2007, though it was a genuine risk. Moreover, a few frontier markets have fiscal fortunes that are akin
to developed markets… or better. For example, as of December 2009, it was less expensive to insure
against a default on Slovenian government bonds (rated AA by S&P) than to insure against a default on
the top‐rated U.K. government debt based on credit default swap prices. Clearly Slovenia offers a better
credit risk than dicey developed markets like Greece.
Frontier markets offer the potential for strong long‐term returns and diversification benefits at a
reasonable level of volatility. There are caveats to those assertions and much to think about before
investing. This paper serves as an introduction to frontier markets, discussing both the advantages and
risks associated with this asset class.
Frontier Markets Universe
Albania Cameroon Guyana Malawi Panama* Swaziland
Armenia Cape Verde Iran Maldives Papua New Guinea Tanzania
Azerbaijan Cayman Islands Iraq Malta Paraguay Togo
Bahrain* Colombia* Jamaica Mauritius Qatar* Trinidad & Tobago
Bangladesh* Costa Rica Jordan* Moldova Republika Srpska Tunisia
Barbados Cote d'Ivoire* Kazakhstan* Mongolia Romania* U.A.E.*
Belarus Croatia* Kenya* Montenegro Saudi Arabia Uganda
Benin Cyprus* Kuwait* Namibia Senegal Ukraine*
Bermuda Ecuador Kyrgyz Republic Nepal Serbia Uruguay
Bolivia El Salvador* Latvia Niger Slovak Republic Uzbekistan
Bosnia Estonia* Lebanon* Nigeria* Slovenia* Venezuela
Botswana Fiji Libya Oman* Sri Lanka* Vietnam*
Bulgaria* Georgia* Lithuania* Pakistan* St. Kitts & Nevis Zambia
Cambodia* Ghana Macedonia Palestine Sudan Zimbabwe
* Member of S&P/IFCG Extended Frontier 150 Index Bolded Member of MSCI Frontier Markets Index
Source: Caravan Capital Management, LLC
1
Market cap of S&P Frontier BMI Index 12/31/2009
2
Comparing S&P Frontier BMI Index to MSCI All Country World Index 12/31/2009
450
Historical Performance
400
Adjusted Index Level
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dec‐95
Jun‐96
Dec‐96
Jun‐97
Dec‐97
Jun‐98
Dec‐98
Jun‐99
Dec‐99
Jun‐00
Dec‐00
Jun‐01
Dec‐01
Jun‐02
Dec‐02
Jun‐03
Dec‐03
Jun‐04
Dec‐04
Jun‐05
Dec‐05
Jun‐06
Dec‐06
Jun‐07
Dec‐07
Jun‐08
Dec‐08
Jun‐09
Dec‐09
S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM MSCI Frontier S&P Frontier Composite*
*The S&P Frontier Composite Index was replaced by the S&P Frontier BMI Index on 11/1/08.
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI and S&P.
As of December 31, 2009 S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM MSCI FM S&P FM
1 Year 23.45% 27.75% 74.49% 6.74% 9.11%
3 Year (annualized) ‐7.70% ‐8.66% 2.73% ‐12.96% ‐12.15%
5 Year (annualized) ‐1.65% 0.85% 12.79% 0.19% 1.08%
10 Year (annualized) ‐2.72% ‐1.07% 7.29% N/A 10.16%
Since 12/1995 (annualized) 4.30% 2.38% 5.62% N/A 4.74%
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI and S&P.
50
P/E Comparison ‐ Monthly (1/1/00 ‐ 12/31/09)
P/E (Trailing 12 mo.)
40 Dec‐09 ‐ Frontier P/E well
below other markets
30
20
10
0
‐70%
Data as of 12/31/09
Source: Bloomberg
Correlations to the US Market
1.0
1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 14 Yr
0.8
*
* **
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
MSCI EAFE MSCI EM Frontier
*Based on average of: 1) S&P Frontier Composite 2) MSCI Frontier Index and 3) S&P Frontier
Extended 150.
**Based on average of: 1) S&P Frontier Composite and 2) MSCI Frontier Index.
Note: S&P Frontier Composite Index was replaced by the S&P Frontier BMI Index on 11/1/08.
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI and S&P.
The more recent one‐ and three‐year periods suggest that frontier markets are becoming more
correlated to US Markets. This is to be expected as frontier markets grow and evolve into more
developed markets. However, this process should be slow and is unlikely to occur in such a dramatic
shift as the charts suggests. The financial meltdown of 2008 and resulting breakdown of global financial
markets increased short‐term correlations across all equity asset classes. With nowhere to hide, frontier
markets correlations shifted dramatically with the rest of the financial market. Interestingly, if 2008 was
excluded from the correlation calculations and the end date was December 31, 2007, frontier markets
correlations to the US for a one‐year and five‐year trailing period would be 0.27 and 0.11, respectively,
vs. 0.66 and 0.69 for emerging markets and 0.71 and 0.81 for EAFE. When markets return to a more
“normal” state, we would expect frontier markets to largely resume their historically low correlations.
Because frontier markets are small and
0.8
Cross Correlation
relatively isolated from one another, Frontiers Emerging BRIC's
0.7
especially compared to their more globalized 0.6
counterparts in the emerging markets space, 0.5
they exhibit low cross‐correlations from 0.4
country‐to‐country. This low cross‐correlation 0.3
can be utilized as an important tool for 0.2
diversification and reducing overall portfolio 0.1
volatility. Vietnam’s inflation issue doesn’t 0
affect Sri Lanka, and Sri Lanka’s success over July 1998 ‐ June July 2003 ‐ June January 2005 ‐
the Tamil Tigers military group didn’t affect 2003 2008 December 2009
Source: Caravan Capital Management, LLC
Vietnam.
Annualized Standard Deviation
adding MSCI Frontier Markets to the 0.30
calculation. Before that date, only S&P 0.25
Frontier Composite data was used. 0.20
After that date, the S&P Frontier
0.15
Composite was averaged with MSCI
0.10
Frontier Markets. MSCI Frontier
Markets has higher volatility because it 0.05
covers fewer countries and fewer 0.00
stocks. The MSCI index also has higher
exposure to the more volatile GCC (Gulf
Cooperation Council, which represents S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM S&P & MSCI Frontier*
Typically, the most volatile frontier regions are
Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The less
developed and less liquid a frontier market, the
Volatility Comparison
0.35
less volatile its returns tend to be. This is true in S&P Frontier Composite*
0.30
part because markets that trade less frequently S&P/IFCI Countries
have less price movement captured by volatility 0.25
statistics; it does not mean that they are 0.20
necessarily less risky. 0.15
0.10
Most frontier countries have lower volatility than 0.05
the average emerging markets country. In the 0.00
aggregate, frontier markets also have a lower Average Country Volatility Index Volatility
volatility than emerging markets. The graph to the
*S&P Frontier Composite includes S&P Frontier BMI ex GCC
right compares the S&P Frontier Composite to the data after 10/2008
S&P IFCI Index, which is an emerging markets Based on 10 year monthly returns as of 12/2009
index. Source: Caravan Capital Management, LLC
Source: CTC
3
Claymore.com
4
Vaneck.com
5
Wisdomtree.com
6
Spdrs.com
7
Data from mscibarra.com
8
Data from standardandpoors.com
Disclosure
This information does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security or investment
product, and is for informational purposes only. Any offer to sell or solicitation to buy an interest in any
security, investment product or fund may only be made by receiving a confidential private offering
memorandum or similar document from the investment manager, which describes the material terms
and various considerations relating to such security, investment or fund. This information does not take
into account the investment objective, financial situation or particular needs of any individual or entity.
Any tax issues identified in this material are general in nature and do not necessarily apply to the
personal circumstances of any client. A client’s tax or legal advisor should be consulted regarding how
tax issues affect the client’s specific circumstances.
This material is based on information CTC believes is reliable, but CTC does not represent that it is
accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. CTC does not guarantee the information
compiled from external sources, and performance information should not be relied upon as the sole
source for investment decisions. These materials, and related opinions, are current as of the dates noted.
Historical performance should not be relied upon as a predictor of future performance.
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