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Decline-Curve Analysis
This paper explains a simple and effective method oped by Arps. 1 The equations are all solutions of the
for graphically solving all three types of production differential equation D = Kq’I = – (dg/dO/q. In each
decline. The three types of declines are: (1) exponen- instance two unknowns must be calculated from the
~~1 II~pGIUChIG,
tiai, fz) L .--..1. 1:,. and @) hmxmk, The mathem- two relationships. They are the decline exponent n
atical development of these curves was by Arps.l and the initial decline rate D 1. The third unknown,
Decline curves are one of the most extensively ~i, can be obtained from the production history of
used forms of data analysis employed in the evalua- the well. First, the rate:time relationship is manipu-
tion of oil properties. Often future production is lated to solve for the value of Dj t in terms of the
extrapolated as a straight line on semilog paper (ex- ratio (q;/q,). These relationships are shown in Col-
ponential or constant-percentage decline) because umn 5 of Table 1. Next, the rate:time relationship
this type of decline is the easiest to handle mathe- is solved for D;, and this value of D i is substituted
m.aticall~ and graphically. This is done irrespective into the
,.. cumulative-production:
. .. *
rate relationship. This
A /l
of the fact that several “investigators have reported relationship M men sowed for the vahue w. ~ t /(n.
IV,.,i)
that this type of decline is rare and that actual oil in terms of (qj/qt). These relationships are shown in
-*-+;-- ,,.I1aI]v
~i~duwuu.. u...... , follnws
. ... a hyperbolic decline. How- Column 6 of Table 1. Two graphs can then be con-
ever, the hyperbolic decline is difficult to analyze structed by selecting a value for n and then substitut-
mathematical] y or graphically. The most recent ing values of (q i/q~) into the relationships, A curve
method utilizes transparencies, as proposed by Slider.~ on each graph for the selected value of n will be pro-
The method outlined below greatly simplifies the duced. This can be done for any desired number of
solution and extrapolation of decline curves. The first n values from O < n < 1. (See Figs. 1 and 2.) These
four columns of Table 1 list the rate:time and curves can then be used to analyze and extrapolate
cumulative -production: rate relationships as devel- decline curves from actual production history.
TABLE 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
T{~
Decline Rate:Ttme Rate: Cumulative D,t Qelqtt
Exponent Decline Relationship Relationship Relationship Relationship
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?Q
J&. 147D JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY
— 00
/ / ./’ / 9
10.0 -7 /’ / 8
9
8 /flr/ / /’ 7
7 1[[ /’ //
6
6 / “’
/’ 5
/“ /“
5 -------
/’” 4
“ ~?:::’ ‘ 3
],i:i ~/’ i /“
:C: ./
0’ / /“
4
‘i/qt
_l,o
9
I o_
s
9
8 7
7 .6
6 .5
5
.4
-3
I 0.1
1 1 I I I I 1 I 1 1
I I I 1 ’32 34 36 3s 40
1 I + ,: ,~ 24 26 28 30
0.1 1
6
14 16 18 20 22
2 4
w Dit
w
Fig. l—Clecline”cuwe analysis chart, relating production rate to time.
,03r-wrl *- N
I ,
1
\ t
5
\
w
0
0
-
. . . .. . . . . . .,-.”*
41