American Meteorological Society

A Cloud Simulation Model for Evaluating Automatic Ceilometer Systems

Author(s): R. L. Mancuso, S. M. Serebreny, R. H. Blackmer and Jr.
Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology (1962-1982), Vol. 10, No. 6 (December 1971), pp.
1324-1330
Published by: American Meteorological Society
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26175656
Accessed: 26-02-2020 23:14 UTC

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 1324 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume 10

A Cloud Simulation Model for Evaluating Automa

R. L. Mancuso, S. M. Serebreny and R. H. Black

Stanford Research Institute Menlo Park, Calif.
(Manuscript received 4 May 1971, in revised form 2 August

ABSTRACT

A cloud simulation model that is based on a Monte Carlo method was developed for testing and designing
automatic ceilometer systems. With this model, cloud plan views and profile views are generated for several
different cloud layers. The statistical properties of the cloud layers are controlled by a number of parameters.
The influence of these control parameters on the generated plan and profile views are described and illus
trated. The model allows a wide variety of realistic cloud conditions to be simulated and has been imple
mented in the form of a computer program. This computer program is currently being used to investigate
the performance of various designs of automatic ceilometer systems in regard to determining true cloud
amounts and ceiling heights.

1. Introduction a. Plan view

The development of an automated ceilometer system Viewed from below, the simulated clouds in any given
for measuring cloud amounts and cloud base heights islayer appear as scattered, possibly overlapping rec
required to meet the needs of the increasing volume oftangles (see Fig. la). Alternatively, the rectangles can
aviation traffic. An automatic system has the potentialalso be interpreted as holes in an extensive layer of
advantage of making, recording and communicating cloud cover, and it is more efficient to do this when the
objective measurements frequently and reliably, and cloud cover >0.5. The plan-view generation for each
would be valuable for general meteorological use as layer is principally controlled by the following param
well. It would replace the present system that is basedeters: cloud amount (ca), mean cloud length (I), aspect
on visual observations of cloud amount and inter ratio (p), and speed and direction of cloud motion (v
pretation of ceilometer readings and that depends and \p).
heavily on the judgment and work load of humanThe rectangular clouds or holes have lengths I
observers. parallel to the direction of motion \p and widths pi per
pendicular to the direction of motion. The clouds lengths
This paper describes a model that was developed for
simulating cloud conditions that are reasonably repre I are generated randomly, but in a manner such that
sentative of those actually observed in the atmosphere. they have the specified mean value I and a probability
The cloud simulation model was designed to produce of occurrence given by
the cloud base-height profiles that would be viewed by
vertically pointing ceilometers and was implemented f(lfor l}0
as a digital computer program for evaluating auto P(f)=\ , , «
I 0 , for /<0
matic systems of ceilometers. The development of the
model was guided principally by the cloud studies of
This exponential distribution was chosen because it
Borovikov et al. (1961), Blackmer and Serebreny
agreed with measured distributions of cloud sizes ob
(1962), Davis (1969) and Plank (1969).
served over large areas (Blackmer and Serebreny, 1962 ;
2. The cloud simulation model Plank, 1969). It tends to produce fewer large clouds
than small clouds, with more than half of the clouds
Realistic cloud situations that might be observed by having lengths smaller than I. The clouds are also
a system of ceilometers are simulated by generatingrandomly located independently of each other. This
several statistically homogeneous layers of clouds. The produces a scattering of clouds that is essentially
generation of each layer is controlled by a number of uniform, but it also results in cloud overlap. This over
parameters that define the probability distributionslap is properly accounted for in computing the fraction
or the statistics. These control parameters fall into twoof cover, so that the specified cloud amount ca is
groups, depending on whether they affect the plan actually achieved. However, the resulting distribution
views or the profile views of the cloud layers. of cloud sizes is not strictly exponential, because

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December 1971 MANCUSO, SEREBRENY AND BLACKMER, JR. 1325

E
*

I
o

LENGTH K m LENGTH
LENGTH Km
Km

(a) PLAN VIEW (b) PROFILE VIEW

Cloud amount = 0,1 Mean base height = 500 m
Mean length = 100 m Standard deviation = 20 m
Aspect ratio = 1 Correlation distance = 100 m

Fig. 1. Plan
Plan and
and profile
profile views
views of
of computer-generated
computer-generatedclouds
clouds(ceilometer
(ceilometer
location shown
shown byby *
x in
in plan
plan view).
view).

smaller clouds tend to be absorbedgenerated

by larger ones. spaced points using the equation
at equally
This effect is negligible for small cloud amounts and is
most noticeable when the cloud amount is near 0.5 ä(jc+A«) =dh(x)-\- (1 — 0)A+MCf>(l — 02)*, (2)
(holes are generated for cloud amounts >0.5). Ideally,
where ^ is a random disturbance and d is defined as
one would like the clouds to be distributed in a
uniform, nonoverlapping fashion. Various techniques d~e~Axld. (3)
of producing this were considered, but the increases in
computational complexity were out of proportion The toquantity d links a given b
the importance of preventing the overlap. adjacent values and is responsib
The clouds for a given layer are generated within a precisely, for correlatio
more
rectangular strip that has an arbitrary length height
(also profile. Thus, when the
is made
parallel to the direction of cloud motion \p) and a fixed large (small), 6 approa
thethe
width. The cloud layer moves at the speed v over base height changes slowly (
The
ceilometers, which are located relative to some conrandom disturbances ß tha
zero mean and unit variance. The value used for the
venient point of reference on the surface. In Fig. la,
spatial
the rectangles (or in this case squares) represent generating interval Ax is held fixed in the model ;
clouds
it is currently
that are moving from right to left. A vertically pointing set at 15 m.
instrument is initially located at the place marked The particular
x. form of Eq. (2) was chosen because it
produces
Its intersection with the clouds as they move in time is cloud-base heights that have the desired
shown by the dashed line. statistical properties. That is, if a sufficiently long
sequence of base heights is generated from (2), then
the base heights will have the specified mean and
b. Profile view
standard deviation (h and rrî). Also, the correlation
Viewed from the side, the simulated clouds in any for any lag f will be given by
coefficient
layer resemble rectangles having smooth tops and sides,
but irregular bases. Fig. lb shows the simulated base r(£)=e-{ld. (4)
height profile view that is associated with the ceilometer
In the special case when f = Ax, t
and plan view of Fig. la (the cloud top and sides are
exponential form for r was chose
not shown). The profile views for each cloud layer are
putational convenience, it appear
controlled by the following parameters: mean thick
approximation to measured base
ness (f), mean base height (h), base-height standard
particular, Davis (1969) has g
deviation (ab), and base-height correlation distance (d).deviation of the difference between the cloud
standard
The height of the cloud top is held constant atheight
base any measured at one time and that measured
point and is simply the sum of the mean thickness t of from 1-15 min later. Combined values
at a period
and the mean base height h. The base heights
that h arederived from his results are shown in Fig. 2.
were

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1326 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume 10

In the model, this standard deviation is given by

MEASURED- DAVIS (1969)
cr = cr;£l—r (»/)2J = <t&[1 — e~2vtldy, (5)
where t is the time interval over which the differences
are taken and v the cloud speed. The curve for <76= 110
ft and d/v = 9.2 min is shown in Fig. 2. It gives a
^ CT (t) : ,ovC
reasonably good approximation to the values that were
based on measured data. By fitting measured data of
this type, one can determine realistic values for the
standard deviation ab and the correlation distance d.
While these results are fragmentary and preliminary,
they give encouraging evidence that the model provides
a good simulation of actual base-height irregularities.

is c. Examples
t minutes

Fig.
Fig.2. Standard
2. deviation
Standardof the changedeviation
in cloud-base height
As previously mentioned, when the cloud amount
of the change in cloud-base
over various time intervals. > 0.5, it is more efficient to generate holes than clouds.

Pr* •
mn
£
CO
v
OP

I
-n--—
h
O
n i—i
I—i • o
S
_n*
_rjF rfD i—
o-H
Wn°
tr . dA "t1—1 —f

I
I o
LENGTH Km LENGTH
LENGTH Km
Km

Mean length = 100 m (b) Mean

Meanlength
length == 33
33 m
m
Aspect ratio =0.5 Aspect ratio = 1

Fig. 3. Effect of plan-view parameter changes

changes (computer-generated
(computer-generated holes,
holes, cloud
cloud amount
amoun

1—1

I
o

o—l
I
0
LENGTH
length Km Km LENGTH
LENGTH Km
Km LENGTH
LENGTH Km

Standard deviation
(a) Standard deviation == 20
20 m
m (b)
(b) Standard
Standarddeviation 20mm (c)(c)Standard
deviation==20 Standarddeviation
deviation == 50
50 m
m
Correlation distance
Correlation distance == 10
10 m
raCorrelation
Correlationdistance
distance= =100
100mm Correlation
Correlation distance==100
distance 100 m
m

Fig. 4.
Fig. 4. Effect
Effectof
ofprofile-view
profile-view parameter
parameter changes
changes (cloud
(cloud amount mean
amount=1.0, =1.0, base
mean base height=500
height = 500 m).

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December 1971 MANCUSO, SEREBRENY AND BLACKMER, JR 1327

This situation and the effects of changing two of the

plan-view parameters (aspect ratio and mean hole
length) are illustrated in Fig. 3. The time required to
generate clouds or holes depends on the cloud amount
and the mean cloud or hole length; excessively small
sizes are avoided. The effects of changing the profile
view parameters is illustrated in Fig. 4. Using Fig. 4a
as a reference, Fig. 4b shows the effect of increasing
only the correlation distance d. When the correlation
distance is increased a smoother curve is produced, and
when it is decreased a more erratic curve is produced. E I

Now if Fig. 4b is used as the reference, then Fig. 4c

shows the effect of increasing only the standard devi
ation ; this leads simply to larger deviations.

3. The computer program /a

The cloud simulation model was implemented in the xuj o

form of a computer program. The basic inputs to the

computer are the parameters that specify the character
istics of both the cloud layers and the ceilometer I -r
instruments. The basic output is time recordings of the
ceilometer responses. That is, as the cloud layers move
over a ceilometer location, samples are taken from the
base-height profiles at equal intervals of time ts. The
sampling time interval (ts) is a control parameter that
is associated with the ceilometer instrument. The
_j_ j—
response of a real ceilometer is, of course, dependent 0 12
I 2 3
on a variety of factors involving both the characteristics TIME — hours
hours (v
(v =: 55 m sec')
of the instrument and the physical properties of the 1 I I I1 I
clouds. Simulated response models for fixed beam,0 10 10 20 20 3030
rotating beam, and radar ceilometers have been de TIME minutes
TIME minutes(v
(v=30msec'l
:30m sec )

veloped and are incorporated in the program as optional

Fig.
Fig.5.5.Simulated
Simulated
responses
responses
from from
a three-ceilometer
a three-ceilome
subroutines. If the real instrument simulation models system
system(ideal
(ideal
instruments).
instruments).
are not used, then the program generates responses for
an ideal instrument model. In the ideal instrument
in altitude. Actually, four different layers
model, an accurate measurement is obtainedcessive
of the appearance times were used to pro
lowest cloud-base height at each of the instrument
higher layer. This particular simulation ca
sampling times. The program can be used to simulate
ciated with various cloud speeds, as shown by
different
sky conditions made up of as many as five cloud layers time scales. An actual ceilometer case is
and the responses from a ceilometer system consisting
shown in Fig. 6 for general comparison. In this figure,
of as many as ten instruments. Also, the extent or points show the primary responses, and the
the circled
length of a cloud layer can be controlled bysquare
layer points the secondary responses. Secondary"re
beginning and ending times (tb and te), that is, the
times at which the leading and trailing edges of the
layer pass over some point of reference. Thus, by
specifying the successive appearance of several layers
having different cloud amounts, sizes, speeds, directions
and profile-view parameters, a wide variety of complex
sky conditions including frontal situations can be
simulated. A detailed description of the instrument
models and the computer program, including flow
charts and Fortran listings, are given by Duda et al.
(1970).
The results for a simulation of a multilayer and
three-ceilometer (ideal) system are shown in Fig. 5.
Each of the three ceilometer responses portrays two Fig.
Fig. 6.
6. Actual
Actualresponse
responsefrom
froma rotating-beam
a rotating-beam ceilometer:
ceilometer:
circles,
circles, primary
primaryresponse;
response;
squares,
squares,
secondary
secondary
response.
response.
(RBC-1,
(RBC-1
layers: a low scud layer and a higher layer that drops NO
NO A AA A data,
data,1057-1107
1057-1107EST
EST3 February
3 February 1970).
1970).

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1328 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume 10

sponses are also generated by the computer program

generated by the computer program are those of a
when the real instrument simulation models are ideal
used instrument. Such results are very useful for per
(dependent on the layer thickness, the physical cloud various sampling studies. As an example, the
forming
properties, and instrument characteristics). cloud simulation model was used to generate cloud
fields of a specified amount ca over a large area tha
4. Results
contained an airport of considerably smaller area (A)
As previously stated, if the real instrument subsimulated clouds move over the airport, th
As the
routines are not used, then the responses that
cloudare
cover over the airport at any moment can differ

0.6
3
O

TIME — hours

Fig. 7. Simulated
Simulated cloud
cloud amounts
amounts over
overan
anairport
airport(the
(thesolid
solidline
lineshows
showsthe
thetrue
true
instantaneous
instantaneous
cloud amounts,
amounts, while
while the
the dashed
dashed line
lineshows
showsthe
theinstantaneous
instantaneouscloud-amount
cloud-amountestimates
estimatesfrom
from
a a
four-ceilometer
four-ceilometer system).
system).
! r\
1.0

c„ = 0.3
i = 0.5 Km
v == 55 m
v m sec
sec-1
A = 25 Km2

0.6

0
0 I 2 3 4 5 6
Tl ME —
time — nours
hours

Fig.
Fig. 8. Simulated
8. Simulated
cloud amountscloud
over an airport
amounts (the solidover
line shows
anthe
airport
true instantaneous
(the solid line show
cloud
cloud amounts,
amounts,
while the dashed
whileline shows
the thedashed
20-min average
linecloud-amount
shows the estimates
20-min
from average cloud
aafour-ceilometer
four-ceilometer system). system).

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December 1971 MANCUSO, SEREBRENY AND BLACKMER, JR. 1329

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
AVERAGING
AVERAGING TIME
TIMEminutes
— minutes

Fig.
Fig. 9.
9.Effect
Effectofof
time
timesmoothing
smoothing
on the
onrms
the error
rms of
error
the cloud-amount
of the cloud-amount
estimates estimates
(for
(for one-,
one-,two-,
two-,three-
three-
andand
four-ceilometer
four-ceilometer
systems).
systems).

greatly from ca■ The solid curve in Fig. 7 showsappears

a 6-hrto be between 10 and 30 min, with a tendency
record of the instantaneous cloud amount over a 5 km for it to be shorter the larger the number of instruments.
The optimum averaging time is, of course, inversely
by 5 km airport (co = 0.3, 1 = 0.5 km, and v=5 m sec-1).
The average value is close to 0.3 ; however, the instan
proportional to the cloud speed. These results have been
taneous values vary considerably. The instantaneous given principally to illustrate the usefulness of the
cloud amount can be estimated using N ceilometers model for performing sampling studies. A more com
that are selectively spaced over the airport area. Insummary of the results from the sampling studies
plete
that are currently being made will be presented in a
this study, the instruments were located so as to maxi
mize the minimum distance from any instrument latertopaper.
either another instrument or the airport boundary.
Also, if Mt of the N instruments detected a cloud at5.time
Concluding remarks
t, then
A cloud simulation model was developed and imple
ct = Mt/N (6)
mented as a computer program for evaluating auto
was used to provide a simple
matic ceilometer
estimate systems. ofThis model
theallows
cloud the
simulation ofat
amount that was over the airport ceilometer
time responses
t. Thefor a wide
dashedvariety
of cloud conditions. Thus, various
curve in Fig. 7 shows the instantaneous combinations of
cloud-amount
estimates that were obtained
ceilometerby simulating
instruments a four
and sampling strategies can be
ceilometer system. Although
tested under
the realistic
estimated
conditions with cloud
regard to ex
tracting the true
amount (dashed curve) generally tendsceiling height and cloud amount.
to follow the
actual cloud amount (solid curve), the rms
Studies are currently error
being made of the
of the performance of
estimate is relatively large. single
Anand improved
multiple instrument
estimate
systems relative
can
to that
be obtained by performing a time averaging or of human observers with regard to 1) large-area esti
smoothing of the instantaneous values. The dashed mates of cloud amount, i.e., an area large relative to
curve in Fig. 8 shows the cloud-amount estimates that size of the clouds; 2) small-area estimates of cloud
were obtained by performing a 20-min time averaging amount, directed at the problems arising in airport
of the instantaneous values of Fig. 7. As can be seen,operations, and 3) base-height estimation. The results
this produces a considerable improvement in the estiof these studies should aid considerably in the deter
mated values. Fig. 9 shows the effect of using variousmination of optimum designs of automatic ceilometer
time averages for a one-, two-, three- and four-ceil systems. Also, the present model could be easily modi
ometer system. The rms error decreases as the averagingfied to generate different types of cloud shapes and
time is made larger until an optimum point is reached, distributions or to generate an irregular cloud top as
and then it increases. The optimum averaging timewell as an irregular cloud base. Modified versions of

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1330 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Volume 10

REFERENCES
the model could be used for other purposes such as for
simulating measurements from aircraft
Blackmer, or
R. H., and satellite
S. M. Serebreny, 1962: Dimensio
systems or for studying the effects
distributionof clouds
of cumulus on
clouds as nu
shown by U-2 photogr
merical forecasting models. Sei. Rept. 4, Contract AF 19(604)-7312, Standord Re
Institute, Menlo Park, Calif., 57 pp.
Borovikov, A. M., A. Kh. Khrgian, el al., 1961 : Cloud P
Acknowledgments. The development of this
Israel Program model Translations,
for Scientific was Jerusalem, 3
supported jointly by the National Davis,Oceanic
N. E., 1969:Atmospheric
The variation of very low cloud ba
Administration and the Federal Aviation Adminis time and distance and with height. Meteor. Mag., 98,351
Duda, R. 0., R. L. Mancuso and R. H. Blackmer, Jr.,
tration. The large contribution of Dr. Richard 0. DudaTheoretical considerations for describing the state
of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at SRI and
sky through automatic techniques. Final Rept., Con
the assistance of Dr. Edward E. Uthe of the Atmo FA65WAI-96, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo P
Calif., 169 pp.
spheric Sciences Laboratory at SRI are gratefully
Plank, V. G. 1969: The size distribution of cumulus clouds in
acknowledged. representative Florida populations. J. Appl. Meteor., 8,46-67.

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