Conditional Probability and Table.

1. a) the student has blue eyes?

Prob(blue) = 623/1704 = 0.366 or 36.6%

2. b) the student is a female?

Prob(female) = 935/1704 = 0.549 or 54.9%

3. c) the student has green or brown eyes?

Prob(green or brown) = (260 + 530)/1704 = 790/1704 = 0.464 or 46.4%

4. d) the student is a female and has green eyes?

Prob(female and green) = 175/1704 = 0.103 or 10.3%

5. e) the student is male or has hazel eyes?

Prob(male or hazel) = Prob(male) + Prob(hazel) – Prob(male and hazel) Prob(male or

hazel) = 769/1704 + 291/1704 – 135/1704 = 925/1704 =0.543 or 54.3%

1. PROBABILITY - BAYES RULE

 Event A1. It rains on Marie's wedding.

 Event A2. It does not rain on Marie's wedding.
 Event B. The weatherman predicts rain.
 2. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The probability that a married man watches a certain TV show is 0,4 and the probability that
a married woman watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a man watches the show a
given that his wife watches it is 0.7.
Find the probability that a married couple watches the show;
a wife watches the show given that her husband does;
and at least one person of a married c ouple will watch the show.

the probability that a married man watches a certain TV show is 0.4

and the probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5.
The probability that a man watches the show given that his wife watches is 0.7
---------------------------------
Find the probability that a married couple watches the show;
P(man AND woman) = P(man|woman)*P(woman) = 0.7*0.5 = 0.35
---------------------------------
a wife watches the show given that her husband does;
P(woman|man) = P(man AND woman)/P(man) = 0.35/0.4 = 0.8750
-----------------------------------
and at least one person of a married couple will watch the show.
P(at least 1) = 1 - P(neither)

--
Need to figure out P(neither watch):
P(both watch) = 0.35
P(man watches and woman does not) = 0.40-0.35 = 0.05
P(woman watches and man does not) = 0.50-0.35 = 0.15
-----------------------------------------
P(neither watches) = 0.35+0.15+0.05 = 0.55
--------------------------
Therefore P(at least 1 watches) = 1 - 0.55 = 0.45
 3. Bayes Probability

A laboratory blood test is 95 percent effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present.
However, the test also yields a “false positive” result for 1 percent of the healthy persons tested. (That is,
if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.01, the test result will imply he has the disease.) If
0.5 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease
given that his test result is positive?

Solution: Let D be the event that the tested person has the disease, and E the event that his test result is positive.
The desired probability P(D|E) is
 4. Confidence Interval

Construct a 90% confidence interval to estimate the population proportion with a sample
proportion equal to .35 and a sample size equal to 120. use the cumulative probabilities for
the standard normal distribution table lower limit upper limit

B) Determine the margin of error for a confidence interval to estimate the population mean
with n=32 and o=40 for the following confidence intervals. 91% = 96% = 99% =

a)
Confidence Interval For Proportion
CI = p ± Z a/2 Sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)))
x = Mean
n = Sample Size
a = 1 - (Confidence Level/100)
Za/2 = Z-table value
CI = Confidence Interval
Mean(x)=42
Sample Size(n)=120
Sample proportion = x/n =0.35
Confidence Interval = [ 0.35 ±Z a/2 ( Sqrt ( 0.35*0.65) /120)]
= [ 0.35 - 1.64* Sqrt(0.002) , 0.35 + 1.64* Sqrt(0.002) ]
= [ 0.279,0.421]

b) AT 91% LOS
Margin of Error = Z a/2 * (sd/ Sqrt(n))
Where,
x = Mean
sd = Standard Deviation
a = 1 - (Confidence Level/100)
Za/2 = Z-table value
Mean(x)=18.6
Standard deviation( sd )=32
Sample Size(n)=40
Margin of Error = Z a/2 * 32/ Sqrt ( 40)
= 1.7 * (5.0596)
= 8.6014

AT 96% LOS
Margin of Error = Z a/2 * 32/ Sqrt ( 40)
= 2.05 * (5.0596)
= 10.3723
 1. TEST FOR HYPOTHESIS For Mean - ( Lower tail test –consider the sample size
)
Average IQ of the adult population is 100. A researcher believes the average IQ of adults
is lower. A random sample of 5 adults are tested and scored
69, 79, 89, 99, 109 (st. d. =15.81)
Is there enough evidence to suggest the average IQ is lower. Test with 5 % level of
significance?
Clue : The null hypothesis H0 :µ = 100 The alternative hypothesis H1: µ <100
 1. TEST FOR HYPOTHESIS For Mean - ( Lower tail test)

5. TEST FOR HYPOTHESIS For Mean (two tail test- σ known large -samples )
In recent years, the mean ageof all college students in city X has been 23 random sample of
42 students revealed a mean age of 23.8. Suppose their ages are normally distributed with
population standard deviation of σ=2.4. Can we infer t α=0.05 that the population mean age
has changed.?
Clue: The null hypothesis H0:µ = 23 The alternative hypothesis Ha:µ ≠ 23.

0.025/2 = 0.025 -> Z test

6. TEST FOR SINGLE MEAN (SMALL SAMPLE SIZE) two tail test
Researchers studying the effects of diet on growth would like to know if a vegetarian
diet affects the height of a child. The researchers randomly selected 12 vegetarian
children that are six years old. The average height of the children is 42.5 inches with a
standard deviation of 3.8 inches. The average height for all six year old children is 45.75
inches. Conduct a hypothesis test to determine whether there is overwhelming evidence
at α=.05 that six year old vegetarian children are not the same height as other six year
old children. Assume that the heights of six year old vegetarian children are
approximately normally distributed.
Clue : The null hypothesis H0 :µ = 45.75 The alternative hypothesis Ha :µ ≠ 45.75
7. LİNEER CORRELATION AND REGRESSION

A financial controller is about to make a decision concerning the type of car to buy for the
company car pool, and is concerned with the fuel consumption costs that will be incurred by
buying bigger cars. In order to determine the relationship between engine size ( in litres ) and
fuel consumption rates ( in miles per gallon ) the following data were collected.

Fuel Consumption
Engine Size (litres)
(m.p.g)
56 1.0
47 1.2
43 1.5
38 2.0
32 2.5
c) for y = 1.4

y = 4.427 -0.065 x

1.4 = 4.427 - 0.065 *x

x= 46.5692