Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233

www.elsevier.com/locate/agrformet

Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations

of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change
Richard A. Betts a,*, Peter D. Falloon a, Kees Klein Goldewijk b, Navin Ramankutty c
a
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, UK
b
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
c
Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
Received 30 March 2005; received in revised form 9 August 2006; accepted 10 August 2006

Abstract
Changes in land cover affect climate through the surface energy and moisture budgets. Here we assess the importance of these
biogeophysical effects for present-day climate, and quantify the radiative forcing of historical climate change by land use change for
comparison with radiative forcings due to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. We also discuss the
implications of biogeophysical effects for the use of forestry as a tool for mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration.
Our model results suggest that since most historical deforestation has taken place in temperate regions where the main climatic
effect is an increase in surface albedo, the dominant biogeophysical effect of past land cover change has been a cooling. The
northern mid-latitude agricultural regions are simulated to be approximately 1–2 K cooler in winter and spring in comparison with
their previously forested state. This conflicts with the suggestion that land use change is responsible for the warming observed over
the 20th century. The increase in albedo by 1750 is simulated to exert a negative radiative forcing of approximately 2 W m2
locally over Europe, China and India, suggesting a potential anthropogenic influence on climate before fossil fuel burning began.
The present-day global mean radiative forcing by anthropogenic surface albedo change relative to the natural state is simulated to be
0.2 W m2, which is comparable with the estimated forcings relative to pre-industrial times by stratospheric and tropospheric
ozone, N2O, the halocarbons, and the direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In cold regions, afforestation or reforestation would
decrease the surface albedo and induce a positive radiative forcing (warming) which could partly or completely offset the negative
forcing (cooling) due to carbon sequestration. This suggests that carbon sink plantations could be less effective than expected at
reducing warming, and could even cause further warming. However, we note that reforestation (or avoided deforestation) in tropical
regions could exert a double cooling effect through carbon sequestration and increased evaporation and cloud cover.
# 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Keywords: Land use; Climate change; Biogeophysical effects; Radiative forcing; Surface albedo

1. Introduction land surface is subject to direct alteration by human

Forty-four to forty-nine million hectares of the global
land surface are currently classified as either crops,
pasture or grazing, meaning that at least 34% of the global
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: richard.betts@metoffice.gov.uk (R.A. Betts).
activities. As well as affecting climate through absorption
or emission of greenhouse gases (biogeochemical
effects), land cover change can influence climate by
modifying the physical properties of the land surface
(biogeophysical effects). The nature of the vegetation
affects the surface fluxes of radiation, heat, moisture and
momentum, so modifying the vegetation cover can
change the lower boundary conditions of the atmosphere

0168-1923/$ – see front matter # 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.021
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
and hence impact the climate (Pielke et al., 1998).
Conversion of forest to cropland or pasture reduces the
aerodynamic roughness of the landscape and decreases
both the capture of precipitation on the canopy and the
root extraction of soil moisture; these changes tend to
decrease evaporation and hence reduce the fluxes of
moisture and latent heat from the surface to the
atmosphere, which acts to increase the temperature near
the surface (Lean and Rowntree, 1993). Also, a forested
landscape generally has a lower surface albedo than open
land, particularly in conditions of lying snow when
shortwave radiation is trapped by multiple reflections
within the forest canopy (Betts and Ball, 1997).
Deforestation can therefore lead to increased shortwave
reflection, which provides a cooling influence (Thomas
and Rowntree, 1992; Bonan et al., 1992; Douville and
Royer, 1997).
The relative importance of these processes depends
on local conditions such as the underlying surface
albedo and soil moisture availability, and can vary with
season and location (Betts, 1999). Surface albedo
change may provide the dominant influence of mid- and
high-latitude land cover change on climate (Bonan
et al., 1992; Betts, 1999; Bounoua et al., 2002), with
deforestation causing cooling, whereas in the moist
tropics the main effect may be via evapotranspiration
with deforestation causing warming. In the 1970s,
before concern about anthropogenic greenhouse-forced
climate change became widespread, Sagan et al. (1979)
suggested that humans had exerted an overall cooling
influence by increasing global albedo. Brovkin et al.
(1999) used an Earth System Model of Intermediate
Complexity to simulate the climatic effects of anthro-
pogenic land cover change from the potential natural
state to the present-day, and found that overall
biogeophysical impact of global land cover changes
was a cooling as suggested by Sagan et al. (1979). Betts
(2001) and Govindasamy et al. (2001) used General
Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate for similar
studies and found similar results. Here we discuss the
results of Betts (2001) and compare them with other
studies.
Perturbations to the Earth’s radiation budget, such as
changes in albedo, can be compared directly with the
effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols through the
concept of radiative forcing. This can be thought of as a
perturbation to the global radiation budget prior to any
feedbacks resulting from the response of other aspects of
the climate system, and is conventionally defined as the
change in the net flux at the tropopause. Since the
radiation budget is the fundamental driver of the climate
system, the concept of radiative forcing can provide a
217
useful indicator of the relative importance of the different
mechanisms of global temperature change. The radiative
forcing concept has its limitations; for example, climate
sensitivity to a given level of forcing can vary by 50% or
more depending on the characteristics of the forcing and
the altitude at which the radiative flux changes act
(Hansen et al., 1997a; Christiansen, 1999). Furthermore,
radiative forcing cannot be used to quantify all
mechanisms of climatic perturbation, such as those
which act directly via surface moisture fluxes. Never-
theless, when used with care, radiative forcing can
provide a means of comparing the influence of different
perturbation mechanisms on climate. Land-use-induced
surface albedo change perturbs the radiation budget by
modifying the absorption of shortwave radiation; this
shortwave radiative forcing can then be compared with
the radiative forcings by greenhouse gases, aerosols and
solar output changes to assess the importance of surface
albedo change in relation to these other climatic
influences.
Radiative forcings due to human activities are
frequently quantified with relation to the start of the
industrial era, typically considered as 1750 (e.g.
Ramaswamy et al., 2001), since this was the time at
which anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
became significant. However, since agriculture was
already widespread in parts of Europe and Asia by this
time (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999; Klein Goldewijk,
2001), the present-day forcing relative to 1750 is likely to
be different to the forcing relative to naturally vegetated
state. A comparison of land use forcing with other
radiative forcings therefore requires an estimate of the
land use forcing relative to the vegetated state at the start
of industrial era (circa 1750). Here we provide such an
estimate. We use reconstructions of past land cover to
perform a spatially explicit simulations of radiative
forcing at 1750, 1850, 1900, 1950 and 1990 relative to
natural (hereafter ‘‘NAT’’). These show the magnitude
and pattern of radiative forcing prior to fossil fuel burning,
how these have changed over the last 250 years, and allow
diagnosis of radiative forcing at 1990 relative to 1750.
The pre-industrial era (pre-1750) is widely regarded
as being free from anthropogenic influence on climate.
However, since large parts of Europe and south-east
Asia had already been deforested before the industrial
revolution, the resulting change in surface albedo could
already have been exerting a radiative forcing of climate
by the time fossil fuel burning began. Therefore, it may
not be realistic to describe the pre-industrial era as ‘‘pre-
anthropogenic’’. Here, using our simulations of
radiative forcing at 1750 relative to NAT, we estimate
the extent of this pre-industrial anthropogenic influence.
218 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
Finally, we discuss the implications of land-use
induced albedo changes for the use of forestry activities
for reducing greenhouse-forced climate change. The
United Nations Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) aims to limit anthropogenic climate change,
and the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC provides a
framework for measuring and monitoring this in terms
of the net carbon emissions of the parties to the
convention. The Kyoto Protocol allows parties to use
carbon sequestration by afforestation and reforestation
to offset emissions of fossil fuels when calculating net
carbon emissions (UNFCCC, 1997), implying that net
carbon emissions are representative of the net effect on
climate. However, increased forest cover also decreases
surface albedo, especially in snowy regions, exerting
warming which could partly or wholly offset the
cooling due to CO2 removal through carbon sequestra-
tion (Betts, 2000). Here we compare these effects in
terms of radiative forcing and compare with other
studies of this issue.
This paper presents or reviews a number of climate
modelling studies investigating the following questions
concerning the biogeophysical impacts of land cover
change on climate.
(1) What is the overall biogeophysical impact of current
human-induced land surface changes on global
climate?
(2) Is albedo change the main mechanism for this
impact?
(3) How does albedo change compare with other human
influences on climate over the past 250 years?
(4) Was human-induced albedo change prior to the
industrial revolution large enough to provide a
significant impact on climate before the period
normally considered as being subject to human
interference?
(5) Do the impacts of forests on albedo affect their
usefulness in reducing greenhouse-forced climate
change?
Questions 1 and 2 are addressed with full climate
simulations. Questions 3–5 are addressed using simula-
tions and estimates of radiative forcing. Changes in
greenhouse gas concentration exert a forcing primarily in
the infrared part of the spectrum (longwave), whereas
surface albedo change exerts a forcing at wavelengths in
and around the visible region (shortwave). A positive
radiative forcing implies a warming influence, and a
negative forcing implies cooling.
The above questions are addressed with a series of
three related studies:
(a) Impact of current land use on climate. Two climate
model simulations were performed with land
surface parameters representing current and natural
vegetation, and a third was performed with only the
albedo parameters representing natural vegetation
while the remaining parameters were set to the
current vegetation state (Section 3).
(b) Simulation of the radiative forcing due to land use
change up to the present-day (Section 4). Within a
simulation of present-day climate, the radiation sub-
model was used to simulate radiative forcing due to
land use change relative to natural vegetation for
1750, 1850, 1900, 1950 and 1990.
(c) Simulation of the radiative forcing due to reforesta-
tion and comparison with the estimated radiative
forcing due to carbon sequestration (Section 5).
Again within a simulation of present-day climate,
the radiation sub-model was used to simulate the
local radiative forcing due to afforestation at any
point where forest can currently be supported.
We discuss the key implications and common
messages from these three studies, and present
recommendations for the consideration of the biogeo-
physical effects of land use change within policy-
relevant climate change science.
2. Model and data
2.1. The Hadley centre climate model
The climate and radiative forcing simulations were
performed with the HadAM3 Atmospheric General
Circulation Model (Pope et al., 1999). This simulates
global atmospheric and land surface processes at a
horizontal resolution of 2.58  3.758, using the
Edwards and Slingo (1996) radiative transfer scheme
and the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme
(MOSES) land surface model (Cox et al., 1999).
Together these parameterize surface albedo using
vegetation-dependent parameters and snow depth
(Hansen et al., 1983; Betts, 2000). In each gridbox,
the parameters representing ‘‘snow-free albedo’’ and
‘‘maximum deep-snow albedo’’ are assigned values
dependent on the local land cover types. Both albedo
parameters are assigned lower values for woodlands
and forests compared to open land such as natural
grassland, pasture and cropland (Cox et al., 1999; Betts,
2000). Each parameter is assigned one value per
gridbox as a weighted mean of the contributions from
all land cover types. A single gridbox mean albedo
value is calculated between the limits of snow-free and
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
deep-snow albedo, according to snow depth and
temperature.
The radiative forcing due to surface albedo change
can be calculated within HadAM3 by performing
additional sets of calculations of surface albedo and the
shortwave radiation budget on a model timestep. Data
fields of snow-free albedo and deep-snow parameter
values representing alternative land cover states can be
used to calculate alternative albedo values under the
same climatic conditions (including snow cover and
temperature). The results from only one set of radiation
calculations are passed to the rest of the atmosphere
model; the rest are only diagnostic and do not affect the
evolution of the model. Comparison between the
different outgoing shortwave radiation fluxes represents
the perturbation in the radiation budget due only to the
direct influence of land cover differences on surface
albedo, prior to any response of the climate system such
as changes in temperature or snow cover. This therefore
quantifies the radiative forcing due to land cover-related
albedo changes.
MOSES also simulates other influences of land cover
on the atmosphere; the rate of evapotranspiration and
the fluxes of latent and sensible heat depend on the
parameters of rooting depth, aerodynamic roughness
length and canopy water holding capacity. An infiltra-
tion enhancement factor represents the effect of
vegetation on the porosity of the soil. All four of these
parameters are assigned larger values for forested land
compared to open land (Cox et al., 1999), generally
resulting in greater rates of evapotranspiration from
forests. This results in a greater flux of moisture to the
atmosphere and a larger ratio of the latent to sensible
heat fluxes, which exerts a cooling influence relative to
unforested land.
The simulation of transpiration in MOSES also
depends on the resistance to water vapour loss from
within plant stomata. This is represented in terms of its
inverse, stomatal conductance, which is aggregated to
the large-scale variable of canopy conductance using
the leaf area index (LAI, the area of leaf per unit area of
ground). While stomatal conductance is explicitly
simulated, LAI is prescribed as a further vegetation-
specific parameter, which again has larger values for
forests than open land.
2.2. Representing land cover in the past and
present and in sensitivity studies
In the standard configuration of HadAM3, the
global datasets of the vegetation parameter values are
derived using the Wilson and Henderson-Sellers (1985)
219
present-day land cover dataset (hereafter ‘‘WHS’’) at a
resolution of 18. WHS specifies 53 land cover classes,
including 11 crop classes and 7 pasture/grazing classes.
WHS allows up to two classes per 18 grid square; a
primary class covering 75% of the square, and a
secondary class covering 25%. HadAM3 surface
parameters such as snow-free and deep-snow albedo
are derived at 18 resolution from this dataset, and are
then bi-linearly interpolated to the GCM resolution.
Here, the WHS dataset and land cover classification
system is used in studies (a), (b) and (c) above as a basis
for the derivation of other land cover datasets
representing (a) natural vegetation, (b) various states
of anthropogenically modified vegetation over the last
250 years, and (c) hypothetical extreme states of
vegetation for a sensitivity study.
In study (a), comparing the climate simulated with
current and natural vegetation, WHS was used directly
to represent present-day land cover (Fig. 1a) and was
also combined with output from the ‘‘DOLY’’ vegeta-
tion model (Woodward et al., 1995) to produce a
reconstruction of potential natural vegetation (‘‘NAT’’).
To create NAT, anthropogenic land cover classes in
WHS (Fig. 1b) were removed. In gridboxes where some
natural vegetation already existed in WHS, these classes
were assumed to represent the potential vegetation of
the gridbox and were therefore extrapolated to cover the
entire box. In gridboxes where WHS specified no
natural vegetation, the vegetation was specified through
reference to the dominant plant functional types
suggested for that location by climatic rules within
DOLY (Woodward et al., 1995). Natural classes in
WHS were left unchanged (Betts, 2001). The resulting
vegetation distribution in NAT (Fig. 1c) was similar to
other estimates (e.g. Haxeltine and Prentice, 1996).
Having derived 18 land cover maps of the appropriate
form, data fields of the MOSES land surface parameters
were derived and interpolated to the GCM resolution of
2.58  3.758. This gave two sets of parameter fields
representing current vegetation (WHS) and natural
vegetation (NAT). A third set of parameter fields was
also constructed taking the snow-free albedo parameter
fields from NAT and the remaining parameters from
WHS – this was labelled ‘‘ALBNAT’’. This was for use
in separating the effects of albedo changes from those of
the other parameters.
In study (b), WHS was combined with historical
reconstructions of past land cover (Ramankutty and
Foley, 1999, Klein Goldewijk, 2001) in order to
represent the anthropogenic changes in land cover over
time whilst retaining maximum consistency with the
parameter fields used in the standard well-validated
220 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233

Fig. 1. (a) Summary of WHS dataset. Actual dataset consists of 53 land cover classes; for clarity, these are grouped here according to the dominant
plant functional type. (b) Coverage of agricultural classes in WHS dataset. Agriculture covering less than 25% of a 18 gridbox is not resolved. (c)
Summary of NAT dataset, with classes grouped as described in (a).

HadAM3. For each year studied, the coverage of each
WHS land cover class was adjusted to be consistent
with the historical reconstructions. WHS crop class
fractions were adjusted to agree with those recon-
structed by Ramankutty and Foley (1999), and WHS
pasture classes were adjusted to agree with Klein
Goldewijk (2001) (Fig. 2). The coverages of the WHS
natural vegetation classes were then adjusted to
compensate for the area vacated or occupied by the
adjusted agricultural classes, with natural vegetation
again being taken from DOLY in gridboxes where WHS
did not specify a natural vegetation class.
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233 221

Fig. 2. Fraction of the land surface at the GCM grid scale defined as under direct human influence (crops plus pasture) in this study, for (a) 1750 and
(b) 1990.

Although the fractions of WHS crop classes were
adjusted in consistency with the historical reconstruc-
tions, there is currently little information available on
the exact type of crop present in each location over
time. It was therefore assumed that the crop class
specified in WHS for the present day for a given
gridbox was applicable at all times since 1750. In
gridboxes where the reconstructions suggest crops but
WHS specified no crop classes, arable land use was
assumed.
The above method was used to construct land cover
datasets with the WHS classification system for 1750,
1850, 1900, 1950 and 1990. In general these showed an
increase in land deforested for agriculture from 1750
onwards, although in some locations such as the NE
United States, land abandonment had led to a
replacement of agricultural land with forests between
1900 and 1990.
Each dataset from 1750 to 1990 was used to derive
albedo parameter fields for use in radiative forcing
calculations. For each year considered, global fields of
snow-free albedo and deep-snow albedo were derived
from the reconstructed land cover data, allowing the
simulation of surface albedo and the shortwave
radiation budget for each year considered.
In study (c), two further sets of albedo parameters
were derived to enable the radiative forcing due to
afforestation to be simulated at all gridboxes in the
temperate and boreal forest regions where forest can be
supported under the current climate. These ‘‘forestation
gridboxes’’ were defined as gridboxes north of 23 8N in
which WHS forest or woodland classes occurred in
222 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
NAT. The first set of albedo parameters represented the
‘‘open land’’ state in each forestation gridbox, with the
albedo parameters being set to either the existing non-
forest state (in gridboxes where such a state already
exists in WHS) or arable land (in gridboxes where WHS
specifies only forest classes) (land cover state
‘‘NOFOR’’). The second set represented the ‘‘carbon
sink plantation’’ state in each forestation gridbox, with
the albedo parameters in each gridbox being set to those
appropriate to dense coniferous forest (land cover state
CONIF). It is recognised that in some cases these may
not represent the most likely unforested or forested
state; in the coldest regions the most likely deforested
state might be grassland rather than arable land, and
some afforestation schemes may actually involve
broadleaf species such as poplar. However, the
implications of these for the albedo parameters are
estimated to be minor and within the limits of
uncertainties arising from other features of the model
such as the simulated snow depth.
3. Climatic effects of present-day land use
relative to the potential natural vegetation state
To simulate the biogeophysical effects of current
land use on climate, three simulations were performed
with HadAM3. The first used the WHS dataset for
Fig. 3. Twenty-year mean seasonal temperature differences between climates simulated with WHS and NAT. Differences discussed in the text were
statistically significant at the 95% confidence level or better, according to a Student’s t-test on the timeseries of means from each individual year with
autocorrelation considered.
present-day vegetation, and the second used the NAT
reconstruction of potential natural vegetation. In each of
these two simulations, the land use scenario was used to
derive datasets of all the land surface parameters
required by the MOSES land surface scheme, and the
atmosphere responded fully to all of these. In the third
simulation, only the snow-free albedo and deep-snow
albedo parameters were set to the natural vegetation
states; all other land surface parameters were set to the
present-day state as specified in WHS. This simulation,
‘‘ALBNAT’’, therefore enabled us to test the hypothesis
that surface albedo change was the dominant biogeo-
physical driver of climate.
All three simulations were 20 years in length. Sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice coverage were
prescribed to observed climatological values which
varied over the annual cycle, meaning that potential
feedbacks from SSTs and sea ice changes were not
permitted. This constrained the internal variability of the
simulations allowing a more statistically robust signal of
regional climate change to be obtained in continental
interiors, but also meant that changes over or near the
oceans may be unrealistic. The results presented here are
considered useful as a guide to the effect of land use
change on global and regional radiative forcing and
the climate response in continental interiors, but the
global climate response simulated here may not be
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
representative of the true response involving SST and sea
ice feedbacks. Atmospheric CO2 was prescribed to the
present-day concentration, so there were no feedbacks
from the carbon cycle.
In the comparison between the WHS and NAT
simulations, the largest and most extensive temperature
differences were in the temperate agricultural regions in
the northern winter and spring (Fig. 3). 1.5 m tempera-
tures in central North America, the Eurasian agricultural
belt and China were 1–2 K lower in the simulation with
WHS than that with NAT in December, January and
February (DJF) and March, April and May (MAM). The
simulated surface albedo was higher by 0.1 or more with
WHS in these seasons, as a result of lying snow remaining
exposed in the deforested areas. A similar albedo increase
and temperature reduction was seen when comparing the
WHS climate with ALBNAT (Fig. 4), which suggests that
this surface albedo difference was the main driver of the
temperature change in these regions during this part of
the year. Although the albedo difference was greatest in
DJF, the impact on the net surface shortwave radiation
flux and surface temperature was greater in MAM when
the solar zenith angle is smaller. In the annual mean,
temperature changes of 0.5 to 1 K were seen in these
areas (Fig. 5).
Lower temperatures were also seen with WHS
relative to NAT across central and Western Europe in
MAM (Fig. 3), despite a lack of snow cover and hence
minimal albedo change in this season. These tempera-
ture differences were associated with increased cloud
Fig. 4. Twenty-year mean seasonal temperature differences between WHS climate and ALBNAT.
223
cover reducing the mean downward shortwave radiation
flux, and were not seen when comparing the ACT
climate with ALBNAT (Fig. 4).
In the Sahel, dry-season (DJF) temperatures were
higher with WHS than with NAT (Fig. 3), with the flux
of latent heat away from the surface being reduced. The
contemporary agricultural vegetation had less access to
the soil moisture store than the natural savanna
vegetation due to shallower mean rooting depths, so
allowed less transpiration during the dry season.
Similarly, the start of the Indian monsoon season
(MAM) was warmer with WHS than with NAT, again
with the latent heat flux being smaller with actual
vegetation. With ALBNAT, the 1.5 m temperature in
both the Sahel and India was similar to that simulated
with WHS, indicating a negligible effect of the surface
albedo change in those regions.
The mean 1.5 m temperature over all land points was
0.06 K lower with WHS than with NAT, but the global
land-mean 1.5 m temperature in ALBNAT was not
significantly different from that in the NAT climate. The
results from this model therefore suggest that the
surface albedo increase in temperate agricultural
regions dominates the impact of present-day land use
on global land temperature, with the areas warmed by
reduced evaporation making a relatively minor con-
tribution at the global scale. Consequently, diagnosis of
the radiative forcing should provide a useful means of
comparing past and present global land use with other
influences on climate.
224 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
Fig. 5. Twenty-year annual mean temperature differences between WHS and NAT climates.
It should be noted that these model results apply only
to large scales (tens to hundred of km or greater). While
field measurements in boreal forest regions often show
warmer temperatures in forests than in adjacent open
areas (Betts et al., 2001), these situations are not
comparable with the large-scale replacement of forest
with open land considered here. This is because of the
additional complexities of smaller-scale processes such
as advection across neighbouring land cover types at the
field scale. Numerical weather prediction models have
been shown to produce improved large-scale forecasts
of near-surface temperature in high latitudes when the
lower albedo of forest is included as described here
(Viterbo and Betts, 1999). This suggests that models
such as MOSES are realistic in their representations of
the influence of temperate and boreal forests on
regional-scale temperature through albedo.
4. Radiative forcing due to historical surface
albedo changes
The concept of radiative forcing can be used to
compare the climatic influences of different drivers
without the additional uncertainties associated with the
climate sensitivity of the model. Since albedo change
appears to be the dominant biogeophyical effect of past
land use change on temperature at the global scale,
diagnosis of the radiative forcing due to surface albedo
change is useful for comparing the mean climatic
impacts of historical land cover change with other large-
scale anthropogenic forcings such as increased green-
house gas concentrations.
When comparing surface albedo change with other
anthropogenic influences on the climate system, the
first question is; what radiative forcing have humans
exerted by perturbing the land cover since major land
clearance began? This question can be addressed by
calculating the radiative forcing due to present-day
land cover relative to the potential natural vegetation.
Comparison of this radiative forcing with those due to
greenhouse gas and aerosol changes puts surface
albedo change in overall context with other anthro-
pogenic forcings.
However, since the other anthropogenic forcings
have been mainly present only since the industrial
revolution, a second question concerns the importance
of land cover change over the industrial period. This
question is of interest to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, which routinely compares all anthro-
pogenic drivers of climate change over the period since
fossil fuel burning began (Ramaswamy et al., 2001).
Quantification of this requires estimation of the
radiative forcing relative to the vegetation state at
reference time for the other forcings, which is
conventionally 1750. Since a considerable degree of
land cover change had already occurred by 1750 (Klein
Goldewijk, 2001), the albedo forcing since this time
could be different to that relative to the potential natural
vegetation state.
Anthropogenic vegetation change which had already
occurred by the time of the industrial revolution will
have acted as an anthropogenic forcing of the climate
system prior to the commencement of fossil fuel
burning. However, the climate of the pre-industrial
period is sometimes described as ‘‘pre-anthropogenic’’.
If a significant radiative forcing was being exerted by
anthropogenic land cover change at this time, this would
mean that the pre-industrial climate was subject to
human influence and therefore was not pre-anthropo-
genic. A third question is, therefore; what was the
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
radiative forcing due to surface albedo change by 1750
relative to the potential natural vegetation state?
In this section, we address all of these questions by
using the radiation scheme within HadAM3 to simulate
the surface albedo and outgoing shortwave (SW)
radiation for potential natural vegetation (NAT) and
for observed or reconstructed land cover states at 1750,
1850, 1900, 1950 and 1990. For each of the dates, the
difference in outgoing SW relative to NAT provides the
simulation of the radiative forcing by albedo change
relative to the undisturbed state. The difference relative
to 1750 provides the radiative forcing exerted over the
industrial era.
Betts et al. (2006) performed a 20-year simulation
with HadAM3, setting atmospheric CO2 to its present-
day concentration and prescribing sea-surface tempera-
tures and sea ice to a present-day climatology as in
Section 3 above. On each six-hourly radiation timestep,
surface albedo and the shortwave radiation fluxes were
calculated six times at each gridbox, one calculation for
each historical land-cover state. Only the calculations
performed with 1990 albedo were passed to the rest of
the model; the other vegetation parameters were set to
the 1990 state. The simulated near-surface climate was
therefore that of the present-day, retaining consistency
with the prescribed sea-surface temperature climatol-
ogy and atmospheric CO2 concentration.
For each land surface state, the surface albedo in
each gridbox and the associated outgoing shortwave
radiation flux (OSR) at the tropopause were calculated.
Fig. 6. Simulated annual mean radiative forcing at 1750, 1850, 1900, 1950 and 1990 relative to NAT.
225
The same global distributions of cloud and snow cover
were used in all sets of calculations, so the only
difference was surface albedo, which depended on the
snow-free and deep-snow albedo parameters. The
difference in OSR for two different land surface states
gives the radiative forcing due to surface albedo change
(Betts, 2001). Therefore, OSR(1990)–OSR(1750) gives
the radiative forcing due to land cover change between
1750 and 1990.
The difference between the outgoing shortwave
fluxes simulated with 1750 albedo and with ‘‘natural
vegetation’’ albedo gave the simulated radiative forcing
due to deforestation-induced albedo change up until
1750 (Fig. 6). The forcing was approximately
2 W m2 over Europe and northern China. Although
a large proportion of China was cultivated at that time,
much of this was in warmer regions where the relative
infrequency of snow cover reduced the impact of
deforestation on surface albedo. In northern China,
long-lasting snow cover allowed land cover change to
exert large impacts on surface albedo.
A forcing of 1 to 2 W m2 was simulated in
central and northern India, but in contrast, the forcing in
north-east India and Bangladesh was positive 1 W m2.
This resulted from the assumption that the local 1750
croplands were largely rice paddies, as is the case today.
The open water results in a low surface albedo. Natural
vegetation at these points was allocated the albedo of
grassland – although rice paddies are generally in
naturally wet areas, the uncultivated state would
226 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
probably feature less standing water since this is
actively maintained for rice paddies.
Negative radiative forcings were simulated in some
parts of the Americas, but these areas were small since
European settlers had arrived only relatively recently
and major agricultural expansion had yet to take place.
The global mean radiative forcing at 1750 was
0.06 W m2.
In 1850, the simulated forcing relative to the natural
state showed generally similar global patterns to that in
1750 but with increased magnitudes of local forcings
(Fig. 6). In most of Eastern Europe the forcing was over
3 W m2, and over 4 W m2 in some locations.
Similar increases in forcing were seen in southern
China, but in northern China the local forcing had
reached approximately 4 to 5 W m2. Over the
north-east USA, a forcing of 1 to 2 W m2 was
simulated over a wider area than in 1750, reflecting the
westward expansion of European settlement. The global
mean forcing in 1850 relative to NAT was
0.10 W m2.
By 1900 North American agriculture had under-
gone major expansion, and at the GCM resolution the
land cover was subject to some degree of modification
in almost all gridboxes in the eastern half of the
present-day conterminous USA. A radiative forcing
of 1 W m2 or more is simulated over that region,
with the forcing exceeding 5 W m2 in the
intensively cultivated north (Fig. 6). In Europe, India
and China the forcing continued to increase in
intensity while the extent of the disturbed areas
remained similar to that in 1850. The global mean
Fig. 7. Simulated annual mean radiative forcing at 1990 relative to 1750.
forcing had now more than doubled since 1750, being
0.14 W m2 by 1900.
Between 1900 and 1950 the forcing intensified by a
similar degree in most areas, with local forcings of over
5 W m2 being simulated in all the main centres of
global agriculture (Fig. 6). North American agriculture
continued to expand westwards, widening the area of
negative radiative forcing. In contrast, however, local
forcing decreased in the north-east USA, where
cropland abandonment and forest regrowth had led to
decreased surface albedo since 1900. The global mean
forcing by 1950 was 0.18 W m2, three times that of
1750.
The pattern of forcing remained similar up to the
final simulation at 1990, with continental-scale expan-
sion being slower than before 1950 but local forcings
intensifying due to continued expansion at the sub-grid
scale (Fig. 6). The global mean radiative forcing at 1990
relative to NAT was simulated as 0.24 W m2.
The difference between the 1990 and 1750 OSR
gives the forcing by surface albedo change since the
industrial revolution (Fig. 7); the global mean forcing is
0.18 W m2, three-quarters of the forcing simulated
relative to NAT.
5. Implications of biophysical effects for carbon
sink plantations
Afforestation and reforestation feature prominently
among proposals for mitigating climate warming
(UNFCCC, 1997), due to their potential to sequester
carbon from the atmosphere. However, since forests
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233 227

also influence climate though biogeophysical mechan-
isms, the overall influence of carbon sink forest
plantations on climate could be somewhat different to
that expected on the basis of carbon cycle impacts
alone. In particular, since high-latitude forests exert a
warming influence on climate through surface albedo,
this could act to offset the reduction in greenhouse-
forced climate change afforded by carbon sequestration.
Clearly this needs to be considered if the desire is to use
forestation to reduce climate warming.
To investigate the potential importance of albedo
changes due to afforestation, Betts (2000) performed a
sensitivity study considering the placement of 1 ha
coniferous plantations at points throughout the tempe-
rate and boreal forests regions. The carbon sequestra-
tion potential and surface albedo change were
calculated, and their influences on global climate were
compared in terms of their contribution to the global
mean radiative forcing.
The potential carbon sequestration over one forest
harvest rotation period, both above and below ground,
was estimated from regional data (Nabuurs and
Mohren, 1995; Nilsson and Schopfhauser, 1995)
(Fig. 8a). Harvest rotation periods were typically 40–
80 years, varying from region to region according to
local standard practice (Nilsson and Schopfhauser,
1995). The resulting slow-down of the atmospheric CO2
rise was calculated for each 1 ha plantation, taking into
account the responses of other components of the
carbon cycle which lead the atmospheric CO2 rise to be
approximately 50% of the actual emissions (Fig. 8b).
The greatest CO2 reduction per hectare of plantation
was 0.06 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) in temperate
North America, where sequestration was estimated as
200–400 t C ha1 The least CO2 reduction per hectare
was 0.02 pptv in the former Soviet Union, where the
estimated sequestration potential was approximately
100 t C ha1 The global mean longwave radiative

Fig. 8. Derivation of global longwave radiative forcing due to illustrative afforestation of 1 ha plantations. (a) Estimated carbon sequestration (above
and below ground). (b) Reduction in global atmospheric CO2 concentration for a 1 ha plantation at each point shown. The value in one pixel gives the
reduction in global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a result of the carbon sequestration in 1 ha of plantation estimated in (a) for that pixel alone. (c)
Longwave radiative forcing resulting from the CO2 reductions in (b). The value in one pixel shows the global mean radiative forcing arising from the
carbon sequestration in 1 ha of plantation in that pixel alone.
228 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233

forcing F that would arise from each plantation’s CO2

reduction DC was found using:
 
C  DC
F ¼ 5:35 ln
C
where C is the 1997 CO2 concentration of 363.8 ppmv
(Myhre et al., 1998).
This then gave a measure of the cooling influence of
carbon sequestration by a 1 ha plantation in different
regions in the temperate and boreal forests latitudes
(Fig. 8c). The global mean longwave radiative forcing
by 1 ha of plantation ranged from 0.3 nW m2 in the
former Soviet Union to 0.8 nW m2 in temperate
North America.
The surface albedo change and associated shortwave
radiative forcing were calculated with the radiative
transfer scheme of HadAM3 (Edwards and Slingo,
1996) as described in Section 2.1. A 20-year
equilibrium simulation of present-day climate was
performed, and within this, two additional sets of albedo
and shortwave radiation calculations were performed at
each gridbox. In one set, the snow-free and deep-snow
albedo parameters were set to those for the unforested Fig. 9. Derivation of global shortwave radiative forcing due to
state NOFOR, and in the other set the albedo parameters illustrative afforestation of 1 ha plantations. (a) Difference in annual
mean surface albedo simulated for forest and non-forest states. (b)
were set as for dense coniferous forest CONIF. Local shortwave radiative forcing due to surface albedo change
Comparison of the two sets of results showed the (W m2). (c) Global shortwave radiative forcing due to surface albedo
direct effect of the vegetation type on surface albedo change (nW m2 for 1 ha of plantation). The value in each pixel
and outgoing shortwave radiation; the difference in represents the global mean shortwave radiative forcing due to 1 ha of
outgoing shortwave radiation gave the shortwave afforestation in that pixel alone.
radiative forcing due to the vegetation change. This
method allowed feedbacks from snow and cloud cover annual mean albedo difference between the two land
to be excluded, which was necessary for consistency cover types at a given gridbox depended on the duration
with the calculation of longwave forcing above. of deep snow cover in that gridbox; where snow cover
In snow-free conditions, albedo varied from approxi- was longest-lasting, such as in Eastern Siberia and
mately 0.2 for unforested land to 0.15 for coniferous Canada, the annual mean albedo difference was 0.2 or
plantations. In deep snow conditions, however, unfor- greater (Fig. 9a). So, while unforested land in these
ested land became totally snow-covered leading to a locations reflected around 40% of solar radiation, dense
bright albedo of around 0.8. In contrast, coniferous coniferous plantations reflected only 20% and absorbed
plantations remained uncovered by snow and hence the rest. The difference in outgoing shortwave radiation
relatively dark, with a maximum albedo of 0.25. The at the tropopause was approximately 20 W m2 in the

Fig. 10. Estimated global net radiative forcing (nW m2 for 1 ha of plantation) due to both carbon sequestration and surface albedo change: the sum of
forcings shown in Figs. 8c and 9c. The value in each pixel represents the global mean net radiative forcing due to 1 ha of afforestation in that pixel alone.
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
most snow-covered regions; this was the local shortwave
radiative forcing (Fig. 9b). The contributions of each 1 ha
plantation to global shortwave radiative forcing were
found by dividing the local shortwave forcings by the
Earth’s surface area in ha (Fig. 9c). These were then
added to the global longwave forcings (Fig. 8c) to give
the net radiative forcing by each 1 ha plantation (Fig. 10).
It was found that in the more snow-covered areas,
such as eastern Siberia and most of Canada, the positive
radiative forcing by albedo reduction was greater than
the negative forcing by carbon sequestration (Fig. 10).
This implies that afforestation/reforestation in these
locations would act to increase climate warming rather
than decreasing it. If the intention were to slow climate
warming, forestation in these regions would therefore
be counterproductive.
Even in other areas where the albedo forcing was
smaller than the sequestration forcing, the net forcing
(Fig. 10) was considerably less than that due to
sequestration alone (Fig. 8c). In Scandinavia, for
example, the net global forcing from 1 ha of plantation
was 0.2 nW m2, around 50% of that arising from
carbon uptake. So, even though forestation would still
exert an overall cooling effect, this would be only half of
that indicated by merely accounting for carbon.
Similar conclusions were drawn by Claussen et al.
(2001) using an intermediate complexity model, but
further studies with other full-complexity models or
more observationally based methods have yet to be
performed.
6. Discussion and conclusions
The first study discussed here suggests that historical
deforestation has exerted an overall cooling influence,
because most deforestation has taken place in temperate
regions where the dominant influence is through an
increase in surface albedo particularly in winter and
spring. In these seasons, the 1.5 m temperature
simulated in the Eurasian and North American
agricultural regions is up to 2 K lower with actual
rather than potential vegetation, and the annual mean
cooling is approximately 0.5–1 K. Localised warming
is seen in some low-latitude areas, attributable to
reduced evapotranspiration. The global mean tempera-
ture change is 0.02 K, but it should be noted that this
study used prescribed sea surface temperatures, which
will have contsrained the global temperature response.
In studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere models,
Govindasamy et al. (2001) and Brovkin et al. (1999)
simulated a global cooling of 0.25 and 0.35 K
respectively as a result of albedo increases due to
229
changing from potential natural vegetation to present-
day. Matthews et al. (2004) simulated a global cooling
of 0.06 to 0.35 K due to biogeophysical effects of land
cover change over the last 300 years, again with albedo
change providing the dominant influence.
Although the greenhouse gas emissions from land
cover change have been included in GCM simulations
of historical climate change, the related biogeophysical
changes are generally neglected. Since the mid-latitude
cooling simulated here is of a similar magnitude to the
warming observed over the industrial era, the omission
of land cover change may limit the ability of these
models to reproduce observed past climate changes at
the regional scale. In particular, a large proportion of
climate observations have been taken in areas under-
going changing land use, so GCM simulations should
include land cover changes if they are to be compared
against these data for the detection of anthropogenic
climate change.
In the regions simulated as cooler with current land
use, the observed temperature change since instru-
mental records began in 1860 is a warming of 0.7–0.8 K
(IPCC, 2001). Since land use change in the form of
deforestation is simulated to exert a cooling effect, this
result conflicts with the suggestion that land use change
has been the main driver of the large-scale warming
observed over temperate land over recent decades.
Moreover, it suggests that the climate change in these
regions may have been greater in the absence of the
cooling effect of deforestation. Temperate forest
clearance may therefore have contributed to a reduction
in the rate of climate warming.
Since, from a global perspective, albedo change is
the dominant biogeophysical effect of past land use
change on temperature, this allows a direct comparison
between land use and other radiative forcings. The
second study discussed here estimated the radiative
forcing due to anthropogenic surface albedo change at
the present day and 1750 relative to the potential natural
vegetation state, and therefore also provided an estimate
of the radiative forcing at the present day relative to
1750. The global shortwave radiative forcing by the
surface albedo change relative to pre-agricultural times
is simulated to be 0.24 W m2, which suggests that
the climatic influence of land use is small in comparison
with the current anthropogenic CO2 forcing but
comparable with that of the ‘‘minor’’ greenhouse gases
and aerosols. This estimate falls between those of
0.4 W m2 (Hansen et al., 1997b) and 0.08 W m2
(Govindasamy et al., 2001). The simulation by Hansen
et al. (1997b) included significant land cover changes in
the African savannas, which are not seen in the datasets
230 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
used here. This may simply reflect differences in the
definition of anthropogenic land cover change. Myhre
and Myhre (2003) examined the sensitivity of land use
albedo forcing estimates to uncertainties in the land use
data and albedo parameter values, and found that the
forcing relative to natural vegetation could range from
0.55 to 0.47 W m2 although positive values were
considered very unlikely.
The results also suggest that surface albedo change
was exerting a significant radiative forcing by 1750,
indicating that humans were already affecting climate
through land cover change before the burning of fossil
fuels began. The climatic impact of carbon emissions
from land clearance would have been small, because the
low emission rate could have been largely offset by
absorption in the oceans or unconverted land ecosys-
tems. However, unless the land is subsequently
abandoned, deforestation leads to a permanent change
in surface albedo. Hence a single deforestation event
can exert a very long-term radiative forcing relative to
the previously undisturbed state.
Deforestation would therefore have been exerting a
cooling influence on climate at 1750. Another cooling
influence would have been solar forcing, i.e. changes in
solar output. The global mean surface albedo forcing in
1750 has been estimated here to be 0.06 W m2, which
is approximately 10% of the global solar forcing at the
Maunder Minimum relative to present-day (Crowley,
2000). However, the local surface albedo forcing over
Europe has here been estimated as 2.0 W m2, so
locally the land use forcing may have been 3–4 times
larger than the solar forcing. Furthermore, in addition to
providing a direct negative radiative forcing, land
clearance would have led to an increased exposure of
lying snow and hence increased the significance of any
changes in snow cover resulting from climate changes
driven by other influences. A given change in snow
cover would exert a greater positive feedback on
temperature change if taking place on open land rather
than forested land, so would contribute to a greater
climate sensitivity. Land clearance would therefore
have increased the sensitivity to solar forcing and other
drivers of northern hemisphere climate. Land use
change could therefore have contributed to the Northern
Hemisphere cold period of the 17th Century (the ‘‘Little
Ice Age’’). (Sagan et al., 1979; Brovkin et al., 1999;
Govindasamy et al., 2001)
The second study also provided an explicit simula-
tion of the forcing due to land use relative to 1750, a
quantity, which is important for studies of climate
change in the industrial era. By differencing the fluxes
at 1990 and 1750, Betts et al. (2006) simulated this
forcing to be 0.18 W m2 in the global mean. This is
close to that estimated by Hansen et al. (1997a) who
simply assumed 50% of current land-cover change by
1750, however, the Betts et al. (2006) estimate is based
on a more rigorous treatment of land cover change.
Matthews et al. (2003) estimated the forcing relative to
1700 to be 0.15 W m2, considering only cropland
changes (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999) and not
pastures. These results therefore support the IPCC,
2001 estimate of 0.2 W m2, but perhaps suggest that
the lower limit of the uncertainty range should be higher
than zero.
The global mean surface albedo forcing of
0.18 W m2 over the industrial period is smaller
than the global forcing by greenhouse gases
(2.5 W m2, Ramaswamy et al., 2001); whereas the
greenhouse forcing is relatively uniformly distributed
across the globe, the albedo changes simulated here
were very localised. Nevertheless, the global surface
albedo forcing (Fig. 11) is of a similar magnitude to the
forcings by the direct effect of sulphate and other
aerosols (Fig. 12), stratospheric and tropospheric ozone,
the halocarbons, and N2O (Ramaswamy et al., 2001).
The similar magnitude of the surface albedo and
aerosol radiative forcings is important because changes
in the underlying surface albedo could affect the
radiative forcing due to aerosols. Similarly, the aerosol
loading may modify the forcing due to surface albedo
change. Sulphate aerosol loading has changed in much
the same regions that have experienced major land
surface albedo change (i.e. the most populated parts of
the temperate regions), although biomass burning
aerosol changes are generally in somewhat different
areas (less densely populated forest and savanna
regions—Ramaswamy et al., 2001). Estimates of the
time evolution of aerosol forcings and surface albedo
forcings may therefore need to be repeated considering
changes in each other.
The local annual mean shortwave radiative forcing
due to anthropogenic surface albedo change exceeded
5 W m2 in parts of Europe, North America and the
cooler regions of Asia (Figs. 6 and 7), which is
considerably greater than the forcings relative to pre-
industrial times exerted by greenhouse gases (2 W m2)
and the direct effect of sulphate aerosols (1.5 W m2)
over these areas (Ramaswamy et al., 2001). Conse-
quently, although we have concluded that global mean
radiative forcing is useful for comparing the global
effects of anthropogenic albedo change and other
forcings, we also note that the highly regionalised
nature of the anthropogenic surface albedo forcing may
render such global comparison less useful when
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
Fig. 11. Timeseries of simulated global mean shortwave radiative
forcing due to land use change relative to natural vegetation.
considering the implications of different forcings at
local scales.
The third study discussed here suggested that in large
parts of the temperate and boreal forest areas, the
decrease in surface albedo by forestation is as important
as carbon sequestration in its forcing of climate. As a
result, forest carbon sinks in these regions could exert a
much smaller cooling influence than expected, or even
exert an overall warming influence. Clearly, then,
carbon accounting alone can give a false impression of
the potential for forest plantations to mitigate climate
warming. If forestry activities are to be included in the
quantification of national contributions to climate
change, their influence on surface albedo should also
be considered.
The introduction to this paper also discussed other
biogeophysical effects of land cover change in addition
to surface albedo, particularly changes in the surface
moisture budget leading to shifts in the ratio of latent
and sensible heat fluxes and changes in precipitation
(Pielke et al., 2002). Although albedo change appears to
be the most significant biogeophysical effects at the
global scale at the present time, we note that this is due
to the predominant historical land cover change having
been deforestation in temperate regions. Deforestation
is now rapidly in progress in the tropics, and this would
be expected to increase the global importance of land
use-related surface moisture budget changes. Moreover,
we note that many of the consequences of climate
change for human society will depend more on
regional-scale changes than global averages, so
information on global mean radiative forcings and
global mean surface temperature changes may be less
useful than information on regional climate changes
including precipitation. Therefore we suggest that
231
Fig. 12. Timeseries of simulated global mean radiative forcings due to
anthropogenic aerosols (copyright IPCC, reproduced with kind per-
mission).
although past land use change has exerted only a
relatively small global mean radiative forcing in
comparison with increasing greenhouse gases, this
may not reflect the full consequences of land use change
for regional climates.
The emissions scenarios routinely used to drive
simulations of future climate change (Nakicenovic
et al., 2000) imply significant land use changes. A
number of the scenarios differ greatly in their land cover
states, especially at the regional scale, with some
regions seeing afforestation in some scenarios and
deforestation in others. Most climate model simulations
do not currently include the biogeophysical land surface
changes associated with these scenarios – this may
mean that the climate changes may not be fully
consistent with the socioeconomic scenarios with which
they are driven, at least at the regional scale. If such
simulations are to be used to inform strategies for
adapting to climate change, the simulated changes
should be consistent with the driving scenarios at the
local scale as well as at the global scale. The
biogeophysical effects of future land use change,
including albedo changes and other processes, should
232 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
therefore be includes in future climate change projec-
tions (Feddema et al., 2001).
We conclude that the biogeophysical effect of
historical land cover change has been a second-order
influence on global mean surface temperatures and
radiative forcing, but is nevertheless a major influence
on regional climate change. The radiative forcing by
albedo increase relative to 1750 appears to be
significant, so we therefore consider it inappropriate
to describe the pre-industrial climate as ‘‘pre-anthro-
pogenic’’. The radiative forcing due to albedo change
since 1750 also appears to be significant, comparable
with several other forcings at the global scale and
greater than most at the regional scale. Historical
climate change simulations used for the attribution of
climate change to its causes should therefore consider
changes in surface albedo and other land surface effects.
Future changes in land cover in cold regions could
affect climate more through surface albedo changes
than through the carbon cycle. The global significance
of other biophysical effects of land cover change will
increase as deforestation continues in the warmer
regions of the planet, making comparison with other
forcings more complex.
References
Betts, A.K., Ball, J.H., 1997. Albedo over the boreal forest. J.
Geophys. Res. 102, 28901–28910.
Betts, A.K., Ball, J.H., McCaughey, J.M., 2001. Near-surface climate
in the boreal forest. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 33529–33542.
Betts, R.A., 1999. Self-beneficial effects of vegetation on climate in a
General Circulation Model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1457–1460.
Betts, R.A., 2000. Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal
forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature 408, 187–190.
Betts, R.A. (2001). Biogeophysical impacts of land use on present-day
climate: near-surface temperature change and radiative forcing.
Atmos. Sci. Lett.,
Betts, R.A., Klein Goldewijk, K., Ramankutty, N. (2006). Estimates of
radiative forcing due to anthropogenic land cover change before
and since the Industrial Revolution. Hadley Centre Technical Note
70, Met Office, UK. Available online at http://www.met-office.-
gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/HCTN/index.html.
Bonan, G.B., Pollard, D., Thompson, S.L., 1992. Effects of boreal
forest vegetation on global climate. Nature 359, 716–718.
Bounoua, L., DeFries, R., Collatz, G.J., Sellers, P., Khan, H., 2002.
Effects of land cover conversion on surface climate. Clim. Change
52, 29–64.
Brovkin, V., Ganapolski, A., Claussen, M., Kubatzki, C., Petoukhov,
V., 1999. Modelling climate response to historical land cover
change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 509–517.
Christiansen, B, 1999. Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity: the
ozone experience. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 3011–3035.
Claussen, M., Brovkin, Petoukhov, V., Ganopolski, A., 2001. Bio-
geophysical versus biogeochemical feedbacks of large-scale land-
cover change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (6), 1011–1014.
Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Bunton, C.B., Essery, R.L.H., Rowntree, P.R.,
Smith, J., 1999. The impact of new land surface physics on the
GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Clim. Dyn. 15,
183–203.
Crowley, T., 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years.
Science 289, 270–277.
Douville, H., Royer, J.-F., 1997. Influence of the temperate and boreal
forests on the Northern Hemisphere climate in the Meteo-France
climate model. Clim. Dyn. 13, 57–74.
Edwards, J.M., Slingo, A., 1996. Studies with a flexible new radiation
code I: choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Q. J. R.
Meteorol. Soc. 122, 689–720.
Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E.,
Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., 2001. The importance of land
cover change in simulating future climates. Science 310, 1674–
1678.
Govindasamy, B., Duffy, P.B., Caldeira, K., 2001. Land use changes
and northern hemisphere cooling. Geophy. Res. Lett. 28 (2), 291–
294.
Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S.,
Ruedy, R., Travis, L., 1983. Efficient three-dimensional global
models for climate studies: models I and II. Monthly Weather Rev.
111, 609–662.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., 1997a. Radiative forcing and climate
response. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 6831–6864.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., 1997b. The missing climate
forcing. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London B 352, 231–240.
Haxeltine, A., Prentice, I.C., 1996. BIOME3: an equilibrium terres-
trial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints,
resource availability, and competition among plant functional
types. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10 (4), 693–709.
IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Contribution
of Working Group I to the Third Assessment of the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
881pp.
Klein Goldewijk, K., 2001. Estimating global land use change over the
past 300 years: the HYDE database. Global Biogeochem. Cycles
15 (2), 417–433.
Lean, J., Rowntree, P.R., 1993. A GCM simulation of the impact of
Amazonian deforestation on climate using an improved canopy
representation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119, 509–530.
Matthews, H.D., Weaver, A.J., Eby, M., Meissner, K.J., 2003. Radia-
tive forcing of climate by historical land cover change. Geophy.
Res. Lett. 30, 271–274.
Matthews, H.D., Weaver, A.J., Meissner, K.J., Gillett, N.P., Eby, M.,
2004. Natural and anthropogenic climate change: incorporating
historical land cover change, vegetation dynamics and the global
carbon cycle. Clim. Dyn. 2, 461–479.
Myhre, G., Highwood, E.J., Shine, K., Stordal, F., 1998. New esti-
mates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (14), 2715–2718.
Myhre, G., Myhre, A., 2003. Uncertainties in radiative forcing due to
surface albedo changes caused by land-use changes. J. Clim. 16,
1511–1524.
Nabuurs, G.J., Mohren, G.M.J., 1995. Modelling analysis of potential
carbon sequestration in selected forest types. Can. J. Forest Res.
25, 1157–1172.
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J.,
Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La
Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W.,
Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H.,
Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart,
 R.A. Betts et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 216–233
R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., Dadi, Z. (2000). IPCC Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp.
Nilsson, S., Schopfhauser, W., 1995. The carbon sequestration poten-
tial of a global reforestation program. Clim. Change 30, 267–293.
Pielke, R.A., Avissar, R., Raupach, M., Dolman, A.J., Zeng, X.,
Denning, A.S., 1998. Interaction between the atmosphere and
terrestrial ecosystems: influence on weather and climate. Global
Change Biol. 4, 461–475.
Pielke Sr., R.A., Marland, G., Betts, R.A., Chase, T.N., Eastman, J.L.,
Niles, J.O., Niyogi, D.S., Running, S.W., 2002. The influence of
land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system -
relevance to climate change policy beyond the radioactive effect of
greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 360, 1705–1719.
Pope, V.D., Gallani, M.L., Rowntree, P.R., Stratton, R.A., 1999. The
impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre
climate model – HadAM3. Clim. Dyn. 16 (2–3), 123–146.
Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A., 1999. Estimating historical changes in
global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeo-
chem. Cycles 13 (4), 997–1027.
Ramaswamy, V., Boucher, O., Haigh, J., Hauglustaine, D., Haywood,
J., Myhre, G., Nakajima, T., Shi, G.Y., Solomon, S., Betts, R.,
Charlson, R., Chuang, C., Daniel, J.S., Del Genio, A., van Dor-
land, R., Feichter, J., Fuglestvedt, J., P. M. de F. Forster, Ghan, S.J.,
233
Jones, A., Kiehl, J.T., Koch, D., Land, C., Lean, J., Lohmann, U.,
Minschwaner, K., Penner, J.E., Roberts, D.L., Rodhe, H., Roelofs,
G.J., Rotstayn, L.D., Schneider, T.L., Schumann, U., Schwartz,
S.E., Schwarzkopf, M.D., Shine, K.P., Smith, S., Stevenson, D.S.,
Stordal, F., Tegen, I., Zhang, Y. (2001). Radiative forcing of
climate change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 350-416.
Sagan, C., Toon, O.B., Pollack, J.B., 1979. Anthropogenic albedo
changes and the Earth’s climate. Science 206, 1363–1368.
Thomas, G., Rowntree, P.R., 1992. The boreal forests and climate. Q.
J. R. Meteorol. Soc 118, 469–497.
UNFCCC (1997). Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. FCCC/CP/1997/L.7 Add.1.
Viterbo, P., Betts, A.K., 1999. The impacts on ECMWF forecasts of
changes to the albedo of boreal forests in the presence of snow. J.
Geophys. Res. 104, 27 80l–27 810.
Wilson, M.F., Henderson-Sellers, A., 1985. A global archive of land
cover and soils data for use in general circulation models. J. Clim.
5, 119–143.
Woodward, F.I., Smith, T.M., Emanuel, W.R., 1995. A global land
primary productivity and phytogeography model. Global Biogeo-
chem. Cycles 9, 471–490.