Northern Nevada Economic and Market Watch Report 3rd Quarter 2010

Economic and Market Watch Report
3rd Quarter, 2010
*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level
© 2010 The Northern Nevada Regional MLS and

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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The Northern Nevada Regional MLS
Economic and Market Watch Report
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NNRMLS is pleased to expand services to our members by providing the Economic and Market Watch Report,
designed to help identify current and future economic and real estate trends that affect our market and our industry.
Index
Local Report
Nevada
Churchill County ......................................................................................................... 1
Douglas County ............................................................................................................ 2
Lyon County ................................................................................................................ 3
Storey County .............................................................................................................. 4
Washoe County ............................................................................................................ 5
Carson City .................................................................................................................. 7
Others ........................................................................................................................... 8
Trends ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Chief Economist's Commentary* ................................................................................................... 10
Economic Monitor* ......................................................................................................................... 12
*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®.
Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is
prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.
Local Report
Churchill County, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
In the first two months of the third quarter, 34 jobs were added to the payrolls of Churchill County. As a
result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 11.4% during the second
quarter to 10.9% for August and September. This steady job creation will help buyer confidence and fuel
home purchases down the road. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $132,100 $131,800
# Homes on the Market * 251 251
# Homes Sold ** 69 55
***
# New Homes Built *** 1 0
Avg # of Days on Market **** 137 107

* Available as of Sep. 30, 2010.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
*** During the first two months of 3rd quarter.
**** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010
Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Price Change Average Days
Zip Code Average Price Homes Sold Homes Sold (Sold/
*** on Market
(Quarter) *** List Price)
89406 $131,800 -10.52% 55 -3.51% 107 84.7%
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
1
Local Report
Douglas County, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
In the first two months of the third quarter, 317 jobs were added to the payrolls of Douglas County. As a
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $333,100 $349,700
# Homes Sold ** 198 185
***


*** on Market
89410 $241,900 -17.41% 31 -42.59% 96 83.4%
89411 $406,700 -21.98% 3 -50.00% 92 86.0%
89413 $1,347,500 81.04% 1 -75.00% 40 539.0%
89423 $298,000 -11.44% 44 7.32% 119 89.4%
89448 $923,300 79.63% 19 0.00% 172 85.3%
89449 $452,400 -18.72% 21 23.53% 89 76.8%
89460 $240,600 -25.21% 43 19.44% 97 83.9%
89705 $178,400 -2.62% 15 -31.82% 100 85.6%
OTHER $181,500 9.54% 8 -11.11% 133 82.7%
2
Local Report
Lyon County, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
In the first two months of the third quarter, 48 jobs were added to the payrolls of Lyon County. As a result
of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 18.7% during the second quarter to
18.2% for August and September. This steady job creation will help buyer confidence and fuel home
purchases down the road. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $126,700 $122,800
# Homes Sold ** 273 215
***


*** on Market
89403 $136,300 -22.73% 66 -17.50% 84 85.0%
89408 $113,100 -1.91% 109 -27.33% 63 94.0%
89429 $60,000 -41.23% 18 -41.94% 113 65.9%
89430 $1,193,500 818.08% 1 -50.00% 1,351 61.2%
89444 $233,000 -21.68% 3 50.00% 196 86.3%
89447 $109,300 -0.64% 16 128.57% 88 72.1%
OTHER $182,500 40.06% 2 -50.00% 52 94.8%
3
Local Report
Storey County, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
In the first two months of the third quarter, 37 jobs were added to the payrolls of Storey County. As a
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $166,300 $104,400
***


*** on Market
89440 $154,700 7.80% 3 -25.00% 200 74.8%
OTHER $91,800 -34.29% 12 -14.29% 86 82.6%
4
Local Report
Washoe County, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Employment declined by 3,404 jobs in August and September. The job losses brought about an
increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 13.4% in the second quarter to 13.5% for the
initial two months of the third quarter. Layoffs continued to rise, which will weigh buyer confidence and
demand in Washoe County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a
favorable buying environment for those with a job.
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $193,100 $200,400
# Homes on the Market * 4,110 4,304
# Homes Sold ** 1,872 1,628
***


*** on Market
89431 $99,500 -13.25% 121 4.31% 60 8.4%
89433 $102,100 -5.64% 70 11.11% 83 88.8%
89434 $148,000 -2.44% 96 -16.52% 49 93.8%
89436 $201,100 -6.07% 234 8.84% 52 94.1%
89439 $379,000 -24.25% 1 -66.67% 93 70.2%
89441 $218,400 -1.00% 36 -12.20% 61 90.0%
89451 $504,200 -9.15% 27 3.85% 227 82.4%
89501 $128,100 -67.28% 29 93.33% 100 83.4%
5
Local Report
Washoe County, NV

*** on Market
89502 $109,100 -6.91% 100 -9.91% 60 88.7%
89503 $135,000 -20.31% 91 8.33% 61 91.8%
89505 $60,000 N/A 1 N/A 13 92.3%
89506 $125,600 -0.63% 191 -24.21% 68 24.2%
89508 $145,100 -6.87% 47 -17.54% 84 87.2%
89509 $264,700 -3.11% 81 -21.36% 121 79.4%
89510 $260,200 24.50% 4 33.33% 52 100.8%
89511 $379,300 -12.48% 126 1.61% 86 49.2%
89512 $105,800 7.30% 45 -28.57% 47 86.3%
89513 $95,000 N/A 1 N/A 16 100.0%
89519 $509,300 27.71% 31 72.22% 80 90.2%
89521 $238,800 -11.52% 126 -7.35% 64 91.4%
89523 $248,600 -5.76% 154 -1.28% 68 90.9%
89704 $706,300 122.32% 8 -11.11% 161 67.4%
OTHER $155,400 -13.62% 8 -50.00% 47 88.4%
6
Local Report
Carson City, NV
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
In the first two months of the third quarter, 48 jobs were added to the payrolls of Carson City. As a result
of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 13.3% during the second quarter to
13.2% for August and September. This steady job creation will help buyer confidence and fuel home
purchases down the road. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $184,200 $178,600
***


*** on Market
89701 $162,200 -17.37% 40 -45.95% 96 87.0%
89703 $277,000 -10.62% 24 -25.00% 100 84.3%
89706 $121,500 -28.40% 28 0.00% 77 91.7%
89721 $97,500 N/A 1 N/A 264 72.8%
OTHER $153,000 -21.86% 1 -80.00% 72 86.0%
7
Local Report
Others

*** on Market
89301 $89,000 N/A 1 N/A 69 81.0%
89310 $80,000 N/A 1 N/A 88 80.1%
89403 $171,000 N/A 1 N/A 13 97.7%
89415 $70,000 43.44% 3 -25.00% 40 81.6%
89419 $102,500 266.07% 3 200.00% 141 82.2%
89445 $95,200 -30.51% 5 400.00% 58 77.3%
89801 $88,300 N/A 3 N/A 29 76.8%
89815 $92,500 N/A 4 N/A 139 66.0%
89820 $58,000 N/A 2 N/A 170 56.5%
89822 $77,500 N/A 1 N/A 68 70.5%
89883 $63,500 N/A 1 N/A 286 63.5%
96120 $260,000 52.94% 1 0.00% 15 90.6%
96145 $2,400,000 N/A 1 N/A 13 73.8%
96150 $291,300 -77.48% 2 -33.33% 44 97.9%
8
TR
RENDS
P
Pricing D
During tthe Postt‐Creditt Hango
over
Byy Ken Fears
M
Manager, Regional Economics

Th he tax credit hhad a robust impact on the national ho ousing markett. Sales surgeed in April and d maintainedd this
momentum in May, draggin
m ng inventoriess lower and stabilizing pricces. This was an importantt shift in the m market.
Ho owever, July’s 25.3% drop p in national yyear‐over‐year sales volum me sent many would‐be bu uyers, sellers, and
REEALTORS® alike into a pan nic.
Th he gap in year‐over‐year
saales eased in A August, but
thhat gap persissts. The
ovverhang of su upply relative
deemand has given some
would‐be buye ers pause and d
fillled sellers wiith anxiety
ab bout prices.

Th he national mmedian home
prrice was stabiile from April
thhrough Augusst, but stumblled
aggain in Septem mber falling
2.4%. Locally, the average
ho ome price in tthe area
coovered by the e Northern
Neevada Region nal MLS was 8 8.0% lower in September o of this year thhan in Septem mber of 2009.. This gap shrrank from
Juuly of this year. Remembe er that home p prices tend to o rise during tthe summer aas families move and buy homes,
which are large er on average e. Consequen ntly, it is best to compare hhome prices ffrom the sam me period a yeear earlier
in order to illum minate the true price trend.

Days on Marke
D et Home pricees only tell paart of the story, though. TThe
3Rd Quarter 3Rd Quarter average prrice concessio on in the areaa covered by tthe
2009 2010 Northern N Nevada Regio onal MLS increeased from 11.1% in
Concession n Less July to 11.88% in Septemmber. This exp pansion of the ratio
than 5%
24.6 31.2
suggests thhat home pricces may trackk downward tthis fall.
Concession n Greater
than 5%
134.3 114.8 At the trannsaction level, many REALTTORS® report to NAR a
grrowing divide e between buyyers and selle ers and difficu ulty bridging tthat gap. Loccally, the sharre of home saales with a
cooncession of ggreater than 5 5% fell duringg the 3rd quarrter of 2010 ccompared to tthe same perriod in 2009. At the
saame time the average num mber of days o on market forr homes Sh
hare of Total SSales
thhat sold in thee 3rd quarter oof 2010 with a concession greater 3Rdd Quarter 3Rd Quarter
rd
thhan 5% was le ess than durinng the 3 quaarter of 2009. The 20
009 2
2010
deecline in both h the share off heavily discoounted prope erties sold Concession Less
an nd the averagge days on maarket suggestts that sellers are doing than 5% 4
44.9% 46.1%
a better job of meeting buyyers on price. Concession Greater
than 5%
5
54.9% 53.5%
Th he tax credit bbrought many buyers to th he table, but may also
haave fed a buyyer backlash w when it was taaken away. In some areass, this backlassh has pushed d buyers and sellers
ap part. The upwward trend in price concesssion suggestss that sellers may need to lower their eexpectations ffor the
saale price in orrder to be reaady for successsful negotiations.
9
Economist’s Commentary

Inflation or Deflation?
by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
How low can we go? We saw another historic low in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as the average rate
touched 4.3 percent recently. The low rates are certainly welcome in this current post homebuyer tax
credit environment to entice more buyers into the market.
Mortgage rates are exceptionally low right now for a couple of reasons. One is low inflation. Another
reason: the Federal Reserve recently announced it may again start purchasing longterm bonds – which
may include mortgage backed securities (MBSs). Even if MBSs are not included in the Fed’s repurchase
program and it instead focuses only on government bonds, the bottom line impact will be roughly the
same: such action will lower rates for any long-term borrowing. Because the bond market nearly always
prices-in new information quickly, there may not be any downward movement on rates when the Fed
actually does purchase bonds at later date. That is, from a practical point of view, the rate may have
already reached the bottom. It is possible for rates to still go lower from this point onward, but more likely
than not the rates will go higher. The path and the pace of change will be strongly influenced by changes
in consumer prices.
With so high an unemployment rate (in September it was 9.6 percent), there is not likely to be any wage
and inflationary pressure, some say. Hence we can expect a continuing low interest-rate environment for
quite some time. If anything, we should focus heavily on avoiding deflation – a condition of generally
declining prices. Deflation could lead to us into 20 years of Japanese-economy-style stagnation. Recall if
you will that Japan recovered from its utter destruction after World War II (yes, with the help of an
“administering” U.S. presence and support). The Japanese economy took off. The country became so
wealthy that its citizens started buying property (including land) all over Hawaii and trophy buildings
across the mainland U.S. in the 1980s. Then came deflation in the early 1990s. All that progress suddenly
halted as if the Japanese economy smacked into a brick wall.
With that historical example in their minds, some policymakers are likewise – and perhaps rightly – very
concerned about deflation and the possible accompanying future lost decades. After a slight CPI decline
in 2009, the Federal Reserve opened the monetary spigot to avoid such a deflation scenario in the U.S.
Some calm and economic growth returned. But our economy has been showing fresh signs of sputtering.
Officials at the Fed have recently hinted at another opening of the monetary spigot via purchasing bonds
– with freshly printed money.
But wait a second. Can a society’s standard of living improve simply by printing money? Is there a free
lunch? Doesn’t too much paper money eventually lead to too high a rate of inflation? The data is mixed.
Let’s take a look.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2 percent from August 2009 to August 2010. The more carefully
watched core CPI figure which excludes the volatile energy and food components showed a tamer
inflation rate of 1.0 percent. That is the lowest core CPI in more than 50 years. A key reason for this
historic low core inflation rate has been tame housing rent growth over the past two years. If the housing
rent component of the CPI – which accounts for nearly 30 percent of the “weight” of the CPI basket) were
to pick up, then overall CPI would also surely rise. Rent for residential housing slid ever so slightly over
the past two years to June of 2010 before starting to rise in the past two months. In fact, several
apartments in the Washington D.C. region raised rents by 10 to 20 percent recently. While the D.C. area
is no doubt unique (it has little employment troubles, especially compared to other markets), but if such a
rent growth trend was to spread to many parts of the country then alarmingly high inflation will be with us
– and likely for quite some time.
In addition to a slight upturn in the housing rent component, some of the pipeline inflation measures have
also been rising. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final products rose by 3.0 percent in the past 12
months. PPI for intermediate products rose by 5.0 percent. PPI at the very early stage of production, for
the crude goods, rose by a whopping 18.2 percent. Some commodity prices are rising as well. Wheat and
10
Economist’s Commentary

raw coffee prices have spiked. Oil prices at $80 or so are not low by any means. And gold prices are at
record highs. The U.S. government is also verbally trying to convince China to strengthen its currency,
which by reverse means a weakening of the dollar. A weaker dollar also translates into higher import
prices, which also add to the inflationary pressure. If rising PPI, commodity prices, and weaker dollar
steadily begin to impact CPI to turn upward, then the Federal Reserve will have no choice other than to
raise interest rates or lose the effectiveness of the monetary policy.
My sense is that CPI inflation has already hit its low point and will rise. But the rise, hopefully, will be slight
and gradual. Mortgage rates can then also rise gradually and not alarmingly. Our baseline forecast is for
the 30-year fixed rate to hit 5 percent – but not until the middle of 2011 at the earliest.
By that time, the economy should have added one million additional jobs -- on top of the 700,000 private
sector job creations from January to September of this year. That pace of job creation is not robust, but it
is still a sign of healing and a move in the right direction.
Mortgage rates at near 5 percent (still amazingly attractive) and some job creation should be enough to
help home sales rise above a 5 million unit annualized pace by the spring of 2011. This sales pace will
still be subpar, barely matching the sales activity of 10 years ago when there were 30 million fewer people
living in the U.S. But it will be adequate to keep home prices essentially stable.
Under an alternative forecast scenario where the CPI rises very fast, mortgage rates will also sharply rise,
perhaps, even to 7 or 8 percent. Homebuyers will clearly be put off. Homeowners, though, may see a
boost in their home values, since real estate values have historically proven to rise in line with inflation. In
such a scenario, oh how sweet it will be for those who locked in mortgage rates at an historic low 4.3
percent and then later experience home price gains while their monthly mortgage payments remain
unchanged.
11
Economic Monitor
This table reflects data available through
July 2, 2010.
Likely Direction
Recent Over the Next Forecast
Monthly Indicator Forecast Six Months
Existing-home sales rose 7.6% in August to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units. July re-sales figures
were revised upward. Both single-family homes and
condominium sales increased. Home values continue to Aug 2010 4,130 Slow and
stabilize; the national median existing home price was July 2010 3,840 steady recovery
$178,600 in August – an increase of 0.8% from August of Aug 2009 5,100
2009. Sales still remain below par, and despite very attractive
affordability conditions, housing’s recovery will be slow and
gradual due to economic uncertainty.

New home sales registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 288,000 units in August – a level unchanged from July but
Aug 2010 288 Stock market
28.9% below the level a year ago. New home inventory was July 2010 288 wealth helps
down only 1.1% from Aug 2009 405 new home sales
Housing starts improved in August, rising 10.5% from the
Aug 2010 598 Some loosening
previous month to 598,000 units. The bulk of growth in starts
July 2010 541 in construction
remained in the multifamily sector. Housing permits –
generally a reliable indicator of future starts – rose 1.8% to Aug 2009 585 loans will
569,000, with the bulk again in the multifamily segment. provide boost
Housing affordability continues to rise. NAR’s Housing

Aug 2010 168.3
Affordability Index posted a reading of 168.3 in August – up Already at
from July’s index of 162.2 as well as the 161.9 reading a year July 2009 162.2
historic highs
ago. The Index has been above 160 for a full 12 months. Aug 2009 161.9
Mortgage rates The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

continued to post new records lows, as it declined to 4.35% in A higher rate to
September. While this is good news for “well-qualified home Sept 2010 4.35% compensate for a
buyers,” according to NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Aug 2010 4.43% loss in future
Index many REALTORS® indicate that that banks are more Sept 2009 5.06% purchasing power
reluctant than ever to approve loans even to such qualified of the dollar
mortgage applicants.
Employment The economy shed 95,000 jobs in September –
down from August’s 57,000 lost jobs and worse than most
analysts expected. Private firms actually added 64,000 Sept 2010 -95 Steady upward
payrolls – for a ninth consecutive month of private job Aug 2010 -57 with gyrations
additions – but government payrolls declined by 159,000. 12-month induced by
Sectors posting job gains included health care, leisure and total: +344 Census workers
hospital, and retail. The unemployment rate was unchanged at
9.6%.

Economic Growth The economy grew 1.7% in the second
quarter of this year. This is the third revision of second Slow expansion
quarter GDP growth based on more complete data. The 2010:II +1.7% unless business
inflation measure remained unchanged. Additional data on 2010:I +3.7% spending comes
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) show that 2009:II -0.7% around
consumer spending rose 0.2% from July to August and was
up 1.7% from a year ago.

Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is
shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Freddie Mac.
12

Northern Nevada Economic and Market Watch Report 3rd Quarter 2010

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Northern Nevada Economic and Market Watch Report 3rd Quarter 2010

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Economic and Market Watch Report

3rd Quarter, 2010

© 2010 The Northern Nevada Regional MLS and

Average Price $132,100 $131,800

# Homes on the Market * 251 251

Avg # of Days on Market **** 137 107

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $333,100 $349,700

# Homes on the Market * 778 810

# Homes Sold ** 198 185

Avg # of Days on Market **** 135 110

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $126,700 $122,800

# Homes on the Market * 646 697

# Homes Sold ** 273 215

Avg # of Days on Market **** 90 83

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $166,300 $104,400

# Homes on the Market * 51 71

Avg # of Days on Market **** 72 108

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $193,100 $200,400

# Homes on the Market * 4,110 4,304

# Homes Sold ** 1,872 1,628

Avg # of Days on Market **** 76 70

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $184,200 $178,600

# Homes on the Market * 391 465

# Homes Sold ** 153 94

Avg # of Days on Market **** 97 92

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Housing affordability continues to rise. NAR’s Housing

Mortgage rates The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

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