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5th International Conference on Energy and Environment Research, ICEER 2018
5th International Conference on Energy and Environment Research, ICEER 2018
Analysis of influence factors of disaster prevention capacity in
AnalysisurbanThe ofgreen
influencespacefactors based of disaster
on analytic preventionprocess capacity in
15th International Symposium on Districthierarchy
Heating and Cooling
urban green space based on analytic hierarchy process
Assessing theYi Liua,* ,Shanshan
feasibility of Zhangathe
using , Tian Wang
heat
a
demand-outdoor
Yi Liu * ,Shanshan Zhang , Tian Wanga
a, a

temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast

School of architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Room 511, No. 66 West Straight Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang,150000, China
a

School of architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Room 511, No. 66 West Straight Street, Harbin, Heilongjiang,150000, China
a

I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc

Abstract
Abstract
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Urban green space is the basic b
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Dreyfous Daniel,ecological environment
78520 Limay, France and building urban
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Atlantique, between
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Alfred Kastler, green
44300
environment space
Nantes, and
andFrance emergency
building urban
medical management.
environmental By means
management of the
systems. relevance
The researchofaims the green spacethe
to explore andconnection
the urban between
disaster prevention
urban green systems, the emergency
space and
capability characteristics
medical management. By means ofofthegreen space ofbased
relevance on the
the green environment
space and audience
and the urban psychology
disaster prevention are obtained.
systems, Taking
the emergency
Zhaolin
medical Park in Harbin
capability City as an of
characteristics example, the influential
green space based onfactors of the emergency
the environment medical capability
and audience psychologycharacteristics
are obtained.ofTaking
green
Abstract
space
Zhaolin were
Parkextracted,
in Harbin andCity
thenasusing the method
an example, the of quantitative
influential analysis
factors of thecarried out quantitative
emergency research for
medical capability influential factors
characteristics of
of green
emergency
space medical management
were extracted, and then using in the
the green
method space. The research
of quantitative resultscarried
analysis also play a promotional
out quantitative role infor
research theinfluential
disaster prevention
factors of
District heating
management
emergency networks
of urban
medical are commonly
green space.
management in the green addressed
space. The in the literature
research as also
results one play
of the most effective
a promotional rolesolutions for decreasing
in the disaster preventionthe
greenhouse gas emissions
management of urban green space. from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
©sales.
2018 TheDue Authors.
to the changed
Publishedclimate conditions
by Elsevier Ltd. and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
©
This2018
is anThe
prolonging openAuthors.
the Published
investment
accessPublishedreturn
article under by Elsevier
period. Ltd.
the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
© 2018
This The
ismain
an Authors.
open access article by Elsevier
under the CC Ltd.
BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
The
Selection
This is an scope
and
open of this
peer-review
access paper
under
article is
underto assess the
responsibility
the CC feasibility of using
of the scientific
BY-NC-ND license the heat demand
committee of the–5th
outdoor temperature
International functionon
Conference
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) forEnergy
heat demand
and
Selection
forecast. and
The peer-review
district of under responsibility
Alvalade, located in of the scientific
Lisbon (Portugal), committee
was usedof as
thea 5th
caseInternational
study. The Conference
district is on Energyofand
consisted 665
Environment
Selection
Environment Research,
and Research,
peer-reviewICEER 2018.
under2018.
ICEER responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and
buildings that vary in both
Environment Research, ICEER 2018. construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
renovation
Keywords: scenarios were
Environmental developed
management (shallow,
systems; analyticintermediate,
hierarchy process;deep). To prevention
disaster estimate the error,emergency
capacity; obtained medical
heat demand
resourcevalues were
compared
management with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by
Keywords: Environmental management systems; analytic hierarchy process; disaster prevention capacity; emergency medical resource the authors.
The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
management
(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
1.scenarios, the error value
The Relationship increased
Between Urbanup toGreen
59.5%Space
(depending on the
and Its weatherPrevention
Disaster and renovation scenarios combination considered).
The value of slope coefficient increased on average
1. The Relationship Between Urban Green Space and Its Disaster Prevention within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
Urban disaster prevention is an act that people are gathered and groomed in the event of urban emergency [1].
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the
Urban disaster prevention is an act that people are gathered and groomed in the event of urban emergency [1].
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-394-518-7753.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
* E-mail address:
Corresponding liuyi154227994@163.com
author. Tel.: +1-394-518-7753.
Cooling.
E-mail address: liuyi154227994@163.com
1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Keywords:
This Heat
is an open demand;
access Forecast; Climate change license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
1876-6102 © 2018 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC BY-NC-ND
Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND licensecommittee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and Environment
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Research, and
Selection ICEER 2018. under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and Environment
peer-review
Research, ICEER 2018.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and
Environment Research, ICEER 2018.
10.1016/j.egypro.2018.10.076
 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 370–375 371
2 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

And the creation of urban green space is intended to create a public environment for the city so that can generate
public behavior.

1.1. Space-time Conversion and Function Comparison of Sites

(1) Spatial homogeneity. Both urban green space and urban disaster prevention need a relatively vast and large-
scale urban space. And both of them need to be divided into different types and layouts in the process of urban
planning according to their urban layouts, population distribution density, building density, and functions. And
meanwhile, both are designed to satisfy people’s needs in the outdoor space, such as catering, distribution,
transportation and so on [2]. Hence, they have common characteristics that combine with each other.
(2) Time complementary. The urban green space is mainly used to satisfy people’s need of leisure, entertainment,
vacation, exercise, party and so on, while the concept of urban disaster prevention is to consider the use of
space in an emergency situation in the city [3]. Their time of use is different but their space can be the same.
In peacetime and in disasters, a variety of technical means and clever planning can be used to allow the two to
be transformed quickly.

1.2. Behavioral Psychology and Environmental Cognition in the State of Emergency

When a disaster occurs, people would make choices for escape in response to psychological factors such as
tension and panic according to the cognition degree of the disaster, the degree of familiarity with the surrounding
space the surrounding space, and the daily living habits, etc [4]. And performance characteristics are shown in Table
1. While urban green space can help people to relieve pressure and release bad emotions.

Table 1. The psychological characteristics of the crowd in emergency.

The nature Features

Conformity
Homing ability
Familiar place is preferred
Substantivity
The wide place is preferred
The nearest place is preferred
Make an escape choice following the stream of people, and they think that the choice of the majority
is the right choice in subconscious mind.
Escape straightly from the original direction.
Escape to a familiar direction or path.
Give priority to choosing a straight path to escape.
Escape to an open space, which is similar to phototaxis.
Priority is given to a relatively safe place to escape according to people’s psychological
consciousness.

2. The Status Quo of Disaster Prevention Capacity of Zhaolin Park in Harbin

As a city-level backbone park in Harbin, Zhaolin Park is an urban green space that has the function of a wide-area
evacuation shelter, which can provide the space for residents of seeking asylum for mid-to-long-term residence and
guarantee the spare parts. According to the disaster prevention needs of the region and field surveys [5], found that
the disaster prevention problems in the park mainly existed in the crowd’s own situation.

2.1. Disaster Prevention and Planning Layout

(1) The middle area of the park is an island which should be the most stable area surrounded by the artificial lake
which providing emergency water. At present, three landscape bridges are linked to the outside, which cannot play a
significant role in emergency evacuation (Fig.1). What’s more, the division between islands reduces the effective use
of the area.
372 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 370–375
Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

Fig. 1. Three connecting bridges on the artificial lake in Zhaolin Park

(2) There are many relatively independent areas in the park that can be used as temporary shelters for emergency
evacuation. The links in each area, however, are relatively single. And the main connection passage is the ring road
of the central island, which can easily create a situation where people and vehicles are mixed.

2.2. Site Identification and Accessibility

About site identification. The emergency signs in the park are very rare, and it is marked only at the entrance,
such as the Fig.2. Many people in park cannot find the place quickly, such as toilets, emergency medical stations and
so on.

Fig. 2. The signs in entrance of the park.

About accessibility. Zhaolin Park is adjacent to three main urban avenues and an urban auxiliary road, where the
traffic volume is very large, and the location of the park is relatively independent. The entrances are respectively set
on three main roads, which makes the surrounding environment relatively complicated with mixed cars and people
when escaping.

2.3. The Capacity of Site Crowd and Emergency Facilities

Table 2. List of relevant facilities of city parks in emergency evacuation environment

Related facilities for Disaster prevention Infrastructure for disaster prevention Convertible facilities during the disaster
Subdivision function Park road, square Bathing facilities
Water-related facilities Apron facilities
Information-related facilities Emergency force command
Energy, lighting and other related facilities Landscape facilities
Emergency command center Recuperation facilities
Emergency medical facilities Children's recreational facilities
Storage warehouse facilities Sports facilities
Management facilities Educational facilities
Plant setting Other facilities

The usable area in the park basically meets surrounding residents’ need for the emergency evacuation. However,
due to the additional floating population, the usable area within the park will not satisfy the needs of people. In
 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 370–375 373
4 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

addition to meeting people’s temporary public facilities, information facilities such as sanitation facilities, shelters
for victims, reserve warehouses for necessaries and medicines, fire-fighting devices, emergency communication
facilities and so on, as well as evacuation of temporary houses should also be provided. Specific facilities are
detailed in Table 2.

3. Analysis on the influencing factors of disaster prevention ability in park based on analytic hierarchy
process

3.1. Use of Analytic Hierarchy Process

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a decision-making method of qualitative and quantitative analysis based on
decomposing elements related to decision-making into objectives, criteria and schemes. The proportion of each
criterion in the target measurement is not necessarily the same. And here, the proportion of each target is assigned
according to the experts in the relevant fields and the regional service population. The judgment matrix A = aij nn ( )
is defined by using the reference of numbers 1-9 and their reciprocal as scaling. (Table 3)

Table 3. Judgment matrix scale definition.

Scale Definition
1 It indicates that two factors are of equal importance
3 It indicates that the former is slightly more important than the latter
5 It indicates thatthe former is significantly more important than the latter
7 It indicates thatthe former is strongly more important than the latter
9 It indicates that the former is extremely more important than the latter
2/4/6/8 They indicate the median value of the above adjacent judgment
reciprocal If the ratio of the importance of the factor i to the factor j is , the ratio of the importance of the factor j to the factor
i is a = 1 / a
ji ij

The procedure of single hierarchical arrangement and consistency check can be divides into:
(1) Calculate consistency index CI (consistency index)

max − n
CI =
n −1 (1)

And max is the eigenvalue of maximum of judgment matrix.

(2) Find the consistency index RI (Table 4)

Table 4. Average random consistency index.

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
RI 0 0 0.52 0.89 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58

(3) Calculation of consistency ratio CR (consistency ratio)

CI
CR =
RI (2)

When CR < 0.10, it is considered that the consistency of the judgment matrix is acceptable, otherwise the
judgment matrix should be appropriately modified.
374 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 370–375
Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

3.2. Establish a Model

According to the problems existing in disaster prevention system in the park mentioned above, the analysis of the
final scheme layer is set as aspects of design improvement in the park: traffic streamline, guidance system,
functional division, and the vegetation in the park and emergency facilities. And the following six evaluation factors
are provided: disaster situation, population density, disaster prevention rank of the park, park planning and layout,
effective prevention and isolation of disasters and rescue evacuation. The corresponding hierarchical structure model
is established according to six evaluation factors and five design aspects (Fig. 3).

Analysis on the factors affecting the disaster

Target layer
prevention capacity of the park A

Population Disaster Layout B4 Block Rescue

Rule layer Disaster
prevention level evacuation B6
situation B1 density B2 B3
disaster B5

Traffic flow Guidance Functional Vegetation Emergency

Scheme layer C1 system C2 partition C3 C4 facility C5

Fig. 3. the disaster prevention factor level structure model in Zhaolin Park

3.3. Weight Calculation of Each Influencing Factor

The evaluation factor of park’s disaster prevention capability evaluation matrix A, disaster situation, population
density, disaster prevention rank of the park, park planning and layout, effective prevention and isolation of disaster
and rescue evacuation. The judgment matrixes B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B6 .
Calculate the weight according to geometric method, and its conclusions are shown in Table.5.

Table.5. The conclusion of calculating the weight of park through geometric method.
Names W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 MAX CI CR
A’s weight coefficient 0.0993 0.0553 0.2921 0.2524 0.1137 0.1873 6.3668 0.0734 0.0592
B1’s weight coefficient 0.2184 0.2184 0.0664 0.3985 0.0983 5.2892 0.0723 0.0646
B2’s weight coefficient 0.1304 0.0777 0.3683 0.0911 0.3326 5.0927 0.0232 0.0207
B3’s weight coefficient 0.1396 0.0940 0.4123 0.0940 0.2601 5.1652 0.0413 0.0373
B4’s weight coefficient 0.2848 0.1561 0.3759 0.1006 0.0827 5.2857 0.0714 0.0638
B5’s weight coefficient 0.1985 0.1985 0.0752 0.3969 0.1309 5.2394 0.0599 0.0535
B6’s weight coefficient 0.2765 0.2559 0.0999 0.2765 0.0922 5.0198 0.0050 0.0045

1
 n n (3)
  aij  i=1,2,...,n
 
wi =  
j =1
1
n n n
  aij 
i =1 j =1
 

Computational procedure:
①Multiply by the elements in A by row and obtain a new vector;
②Calculate the nth roots of each component of the new vector;
 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 370–375 375
6 Yi Liu et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

③The normalization of the obtained vector is the weight vector

The above judgment matrix all passed the one-time test, namely, CR<0.10
Next, the weight of the comprehensive influence is considered: the weight of the comprehensive influence is to
calculate the composition weight of each layer element on the scheme layer. If the upper level B contains n factors
B1, B2, B3...Bn, the hierarchical weight values are b1, b2,...,bn, respectively. If the consistency index of certain
factors in the C layer for the Bi single ordering is CIi, and the corresponding average random consistency index is
RIi, then the total ordering random consistency ratio of the C layer is:

 b CI i i
CR = i =1
n

 b RI i i
i =1 (4)

When CR<0.10, the result of hierarchical total ordering meets the requirement of consistency
CR=0.0413
The total weights for the five design aspects of traffic streamline, guidance system, functional division, the
vegetation in the park and emergency facilities, respectively, are: 0.2195; 0.1633; 0.2695; 0.1944; 0.1572.

3.3. Comparison and Analysis of Data

By the analytic hierarchy process, the order of the influence factors of disaster prevention capabilities from the
highest to the lowest is as follows: functional division, traffic streamline, the vegetation in the park, guidance
system,and emergency facilities.Then it can be seen that the weight values of functional division and traffic
streamline are the highest, which should occupy the major position in planning and designing green space disaster
prevention in the future. And meanwhile, the weight values of functional division and traffic streamline are much
higher than other three aspects, which can also indicate that both of them have been paid attention to in the minds of
experts and users. The weight value of functional division and traffic streamline are very close (the difference is not
more than 0.01). At the same time, there is not much difference between the weight value of the vegetation in the
park and guidance system (the difference is not more than 0.02).

4. Conclusion

This study aims at improving the emergency medical capacity of urban green space systems and build a sound
disaster prevention environment management system. First of all, the study explicited the relevance between the
disaster prevention systems in cities and the urban green space systems. In addition, taking the Harbin Zhaolin Park
as an example, the AHP is combined with the emergency rescue formulation of urban green space to determine the
factors that have influence on the emergency medical capacity of the green space. It's hoped to provide a reference
for decision makers and designers of urban environmental management systems and more rational and scientific to
formulate the urban environment systems in order to build a good disaster prevention system in cities.

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