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Market Overview
The new price bands for petroleum products were announced. It appears that the WAI
continues to firm up and forecasts of demand supply of crude seem to indicate that
sustained growth in emerging markets is steadily pushing prices northwards.
Max 37 50 58 47 36 37 35
APAC
Min 27 37 42 37 30 30 28
Max 58 44 39 39 39
EMEA
Min 45 37 34 34 28
Max 61 47 44 44 44
Americas
Min 48 40 40 34 28
News from the Americas
The current wave of sustained publicity in the Americas about the need for each citizen to contribute
to environmental protection is likely to impact short – term demand for petroleum products. Several
states have mandated higher proportions of methanol blending (in gasoline), providing incentives to
hybrids, investments in alternative energy sources like solar and wind, and most importantly higher
taxes on machines using petroleum products. There is also talk of a few states and governments
imposing a cess on petroleum products to create an investment pool to deal with accidents. While
the oil industry lobby in Washington has worked towards filing of several class action suits against
such discriminatory regulation, analysts expect a dip in demand for petroleum products in the US.
The mood amongst political leaders, social groups and even government regulators vitiated by the
Gulf of Mexico Disaster, is currently weighted against the interest of the oil industry. Analysts from
Carlyle Group – a think tank on petroleum industry – expect a 10‐20% drop in demand. However, the
impact of this demand reduction on US domestic and foreign suppliers is still unclear.
Can petroleum products be branded?
Oil distribution firms across the world have always invested in building a brand of their products.
Thus, large oil companies have significant presence on national and international media, sponsoring
events and emerged as high spenders for the Advertisement industry. Is all of this useful and
relevant to their business? Does this expenditure lead to higher sales, market share etc are
questions that have been the focus of several marketing journals. According to Prof McCleod of
University of Texas, who has several papers in this area to his credit, says that marketing spends in
this business should impact sales and market shares. "Today basic marketing is a hygiene factor for
this industry. Successful firms use this to position themselves appropriately. The content of the
copy, the message and the currency of the message add up to whether or not the marketing spend is
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Quarter 3
effective". A key proposal doing the rounds in the industry today is the position of firms as a
responsible corporate citizen ‐ affirmatively acting to deal with environmental issues. The recent
Gulf of Mexico fiasco and other such incidents have given an impetus to this proposal. Raatchi and
Raatchi, an oil advertising specialty firm, has proposed a Cu 500,000 Investment in brand building
which they claim would enhance sales by around 5‐15% at each outlet. This is an estimated sale and
can vary substantially. This Investment must be made for each market (APAC, EMEA, Americas)
individually. “This initiative firmly positions your company as an environmentally sensitive company
that takes it responsibility to Mother Earth seriously and ensures that customers can continue to use
petroleum products without feeling guilty about contributing to environmental degradation.” Enter
Yes if you opt for this choice.
Production Rate Change for Reserve
In this quarter you can increase or decrease Production Rate, i.e. you can increase / decrease by 15%
the crude oil gushing out from your Reserves. There is only one reserve to choose from and it will be
effective from the current Quarter. Cost of this change is 50,000 Cu.
Investments
Bankers have started looking afresh at Oil Companies to not only give loans, but also park their
surplus money at interest of PLR‐2% per annum. Look at your cash flows of your company and take
opportunity to earn interest in making Short Term Investment. If you make a short term investment
you will get the interest on the deposit in the same quarter. Also, you may withdraw the money in
any quarter and that will be forwarded to you in the beginning of the quarter. However, don’t go
overboard and attract shark loans (see manual to know more about Shark Loans)
Refiners Corner
Teams taking the project of enhancement in Refining Capacity got around 90% of their refinery
from Q3 onwards. You will not see any change in Refinery Capacity mentioned in MR, as there is no
physical addition. However, you can see the actual Refinery Capacity on top of Decision Form.
Illustration ‐ Your refinery output would have increased from 20000 MT (25,000MT x 80%) to around
22,500 MT (25,000 MT x 90%). Any capacity additions in the past or in subsequent quarters will get
same increased efficiency. Cash outflow of Cu. 400,000 can be viewed in Cash Statement and per
quarter Overheads of Cu. 50,000 will be from Quarter 3 onwards.
The Development Drilling Diary
Development Drilling with either one of the approach (A or B) is required to start utilizing your oil
reserves and several firms commissioned development drilling in Q2. Reports from various
companies seem to suggest that all of them have commenced some production by the end of the
quarter. Typically it is during the development drilling phase, that companies are able to establish
the true size of the oil reservoir – which has come to be called as proven reserves. Also, the drilling
process establishes the rate at which oil and gas gush out of the wells. The vagaries of oil well
development engineering are well known. The long term statistics in the industry seems to suggest
that 20‐30% of the development wells turn dry and the work involved in them have to be written off.
However, the results of last quarter are encouraging to the extent that scientific approaches to
drilling have resulted in higher success rates. The proven reserves divided by the oil rate would
approximately indicate the life of the well. While teams have used different approaches on
development drilling, the jury is still out on the benefits of the Adaptive drilling approach. You will
get 50% of Oil Rate and Gas Rate (1.5 x Oil Rate) in current quarter and 100% subsequently.
Ofcourse, you cannot forget to give government share. Drilling expenses can be seen in Cash
Statement under Capital Expenditure and as Fixed Assets in Balance Sheet.
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