Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Evaluation of wind energy potential and electricity generation

at six locations in Turkey
Aynur Ucar a,*, Figen Balo b
a
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Firat University, 23279 Elazığ, Turkey
b
The Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, Elazığ, Turkey

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In this study, wind characteristics were analyzed using the wind speed data collected of the six meteo-
Received 9 May 2008 rological stations in Turkey during the period 2000–2006. The annual mean wind speed of the six stations
Received in revised form 22 August 2008 (Erzurum, Elazığ, Bingöl, Kars, Manisa and Niğde) is obtained as 8.7, 8.5, 5.9, 6.9, 7.4 and 8.0 m/s at 10 m
Accepted 13 December 2008
height, respectively. The mean annual value of Weibull shape parameter k is between 1.71 and 1.96 while
Available online 31 January 2009
the annual value of scale parameter c is between 6.81 and 9.71 m/s. A technical assessment has been
made of electricity generation from four wind turbines having capacity of (600 kW, 1000 kW, 1500 kW
Keywords:
and 2000 kW). The yearly energy output and capacity factor for the four different turbines were
Wind energy
Weibull distribution
calculated.
Wind turbine Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The wind is an inexhaustible resource that can provide signifi-

The utilization of wind energy has been increasing around the
world at an accelerating pace. However, the development of new
wind projects continues to be hampered by the lack of reliable
and accurate wind resource data in many parts of the world. Such
data are needed to enable governments, private developers and
others to determine the priority that should be given to wind en-
ergy utilization and to identify potential areas that might be suit-
able for development [1]. The distribution of wind speeds is
important for the design of wind farms, power generators and agri-
cultural applications such as the irrigation. Today, wind analysis
provides remarkable information to researchers and designers that
are involved in renewable energy studies [2].
Turkey is situated at the meeting point of three continents
(Asia, Europe and Africa) and stands as a bridge between Asia
and Europe. The demand for energy and particularly for electricity
is growing rapidly, because of social and economic development of
the country. Turkey has no big oil and gas reserves. In Turkey, elec-
tricity is produced by thermal power plants, consuming coal, lig-
nite, NG, fuel oil and geothermal energy and hydropower plants.
Turkey’s primary energy consumption was 80 Mtoe (Million Tons
of Oil Equivalent) in 2000. It is expected to reach 167 Mtoe by
2010 and 307 Mtoe by 2020. Indigenous energy production to meet
the energy demand is expected to be 33% in 2005, 30% in 2010 and
26% in 2020 [3].
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 0424 2370000/5333; fax: +90 424 2415526.
E-mail address: aucar@firat.edu.tr (A. Ucar).
cant quantities of energy to support a country’s needs. Since earli-
est recorded history, man has been harnessing the energy of the
wind [4]. Wind velocity is the most important parameter for eval-
uation of the wind energy resources. Any choice of wind turbine
design must be based on the average wind velocity at the selected
wind turbine construction site [5]. An accurate wind resource
assessment is an important and critical factor to be well under-
stood for harnessing the power of the wind. It is well known that
an error of 1% in wind speed measurements leads to almost 2% er-
ror in energy output [6].
Turkish energy policy is concentrated mainly on ensuring a sup-
ply of reliable, sufficient, economic and clean energy, on time, and
in a way to support the targets for growth and social development.
Although almost all conventional resources exist in Turkey, these
resources are not sufficient to meet energy demand, except for lig-
nite and hydro. Because more than half of the energy demand is
met through imports to Turkey, it is necessary to consider and
review the use of potential wind energy resources in this region
[7].
Turkey has a large potential for renewable energies. One of the
best renewable energy sources for Turkey is wind energy. The
southern parts of the region are particularly affected by the south-
westerly and westerly winds caused by cyclonic disturbances com-
ing from the Azores high pressure and Basra low-pressure centers
depending on the season of the year. On the other hand, the north-
western part of Turkey is under the Iceland low-pressure influence,
which gives rise to northerly and northwesterly winds, especially
in the northern Aegean sea. Along the black sea coastal line, Turkey
is exposed to northerly and northeasterly winds originating from

0306-2619/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2008.12.016
 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872
Nomenclature
A sweep area (m2)
c Weibull scale parameter (m/s)
Cf capacity factor
Eout energy output (kW h/year)
h height (m)
k Weibull shape parameter (dimensionless)
P power of wind per unit area (W/m2)
Pr rated power (W/m2)
Siberia and middle Black Sea range receives most of the wind speed
and hence energy. The interior of Turkey has a continental climate
where there are some locations with rugged mountains such as
eastern Turkey where wind speeds reach significant energy gener-
able levels along many valleys. The previous technical research
proves that some parts of Turkey are endowed with strong wind
conditions. Particularly, south of the Marmara region, coastal and
some inner parts of the Aegean region, some parts of the Black
Sea, the eastern part of the Mediterranean, and locations with rug-
ged mountains in Eastern Anatolia are especially promising regions
[8].
In the last decade, a lot of studies related to the wind character-
istics and wind power potential have been made in many countries
worldwide [1–23]. Gökçek et al. [9] investigated the wind charac-
teristics and wind potential of Kırklareli province in the Marmara
Region, Turkey. It was found that annual mean power density
based on observed data and Weibull function were calculated as
142.75 and 138.85 W/m2. Ahmed Shata and Hanitsch [10] deter-
mined the wind energy potential by using wind data from 10
coastal meteorological stations along the Mediterranean Sea in
Egypt. The monthly and annual mean wind power and densities
were calculated for all stations. They found that three of them
are the best locations, namely: Sidi Barrani, Mersa Matruh, and El
Dabaa. The wind turbine of capacity 1 MW was found to produce
an energy output per year of 2718 MW h at El Dabaa station, and
the production costs was found 2 V cent/kW h. Eskin et al. [11]
estimated wind power potential of Gökçeada Island in the North-
ern Aegean Sea, Turkey. The wind data used in this study collected
Fig. 1. Distribution of meteorological stations over Turkey.
1865
v wind speed (m/s)
v mean wind speed (m/s)
vi wind speed in the stage i (m/s)
vr rated wind speed (m/s)
q air density (kg/m3)
C Gamma function
at 10 and 30 m of height above ground. This study demonstrated
the presence of high wind speeds and power in Gökçeada, as well
as in the northern–western part of Turkey. The wind energy poten-
tial in the eastern Mediterranean region using hourly wind data ta-
ken from seven stations during 1992–2001 periods investigated by
Sahin et al. [12]. They determined that the mean power density is
500 W/m2 in many areas of this region at 25 m from the ground
level.
Rehman and Al-Abbadi [13] calculated the local values of wind
shear coefficient estimated using wind speed measurements made
at 20, 30 and 40 m above ground level. They obtained the turbu-
lence intensities at different heights. They investigated effect of
wind shear coefficient on energy yield from a wind farm of
60 MW installed capacity assumed to be consisting of 40 wind tur-
bines of 1500 kW. Elamouri and Ben Amar [14] evaluated the wind
speed characteristics and the wind power potential of Tunisia at a
height of 10 m above ground level and in an open area. Wind en-
ergy potential in Maiduguri using Weibull distribution and 10
years (1995–2004) of wind data was analyzed by Ngala et al.
[15]. Al-Nassar et al. [19] evaluated the wind characteristics of
six locations in the State of Kuwait. The annual average wind speed
for the considered sites ranged from 3.7 to 5.5 m/s and a mean
wind power density from 80 to 167 W/m2 at standard height of
10 m. Kaldellis [16] determined the optimum configuration of a
stand-alone wind power system by using long-term wind-poten-
tial experimental measurements for several regions in Greece.
The potential sites of wind energy generation of Turkey have
not been completely investigated in detail yet. The goal of this
1866 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872

Table 1 Table 3
Geographical coordinates of stations used in the study. Monthly and annual variation of Weibull parameters (k and c) at all the stations.

Station Latitude (deg) Longitude (deg) Elevation (m) Station Erzurum Elazığ Bingöl Kars Manisa Niğde
0 0
Bingöl 38°53 40°29 1151 January k 1.75 1.71 1.96 1.88 1.47 1.71
Elazığ 38°410 39°140 1067 c 7.10 6.96 4.74 10.72 10.01 6.43
Erzurum 39°550 41°170 1950 February k 1.29 1.97 1.58 2.06 1.72 1.55
Kars 40°360 43°050 1768 c 7.38 9.40 6.16 9.82 8.05 7.65
Manisa 38°360 27°260 2020 March k 1.98 2.46 2.02 2.19 1.98 2.26
Niğde 37°590 34°420 1300 c 9.60 11.03 6.79 9.59 8.21 11.07
April k 2.32 2.25 2.34 1.80 2.10 2.07
c 11.62 12.37 8.20 7.71 8.44 12.08
May k 2.19 2.08 2.20 1.67 1.88 1.65
study is to calculate the wind power potential of six locations, c 12.23 12.41 8.50 7.29 7.39 9.53
namely Manisa, Niğde, Elazığ, Bingöl, Erzurum and Kars in Turkey. June k 1.78 1.79 1.98 1.36 1.78 1.64
c 9.94 11.00 7.98 6.53 6.98 9.36
July k 1.95 1.61 1.73 1.46 1.81 1.72
2. Mathematical analysis c 10.86 9.82 6.95 7.12 7.03 9.72
August k 1.92 1.58 1.87 1.40 1.79 1.45
Knowledge of the wind speed frequency distribution is a very c 10.92 9.54 7.56 7.06 6.99 8.29
September k 1.83 1.43 1.75 1.36 2.06 1.38
important factor to evaluate the wind potential in windy areas. If
c 10.49 8.75 7.07 7.08 7.94 7.97
ever the wind speed distribution in any windy site is known, the October k 1.74 1.27 1.59 1.59 1.36 1.30
power potential and the economic feasibility belonging to the site c 9.89 7.93 6.38 8.05 5.81 7.58
can be easily obtained. Wind data obtained with various observa- November k 1.31 1.13 1.33 1.84 1.34 1.34
tion methods has the wide ranges. Therefore, in the wind energy c 7.49 7.09 5.31 8.89 5.74 7.46
December k 1.12 1.08 1.05 1.88 1.70 1.52
analysis, it is necessary to have only a few key parameters that
c 7.23 7.00 4.84 10.01 7.40 8.75
can explain the behavior of a wide range of wind speed data. The Yearly k 1.73 1.65 1.96 1.77 1.71 1.74
simplest and most practical method for the procedure is to use a c 9.71 9.58 6.81 8.47 7.62 8.97
probability distribution function. There are several probability
density functions, which can be used to describe the wind speed
frequency curve. The Weibull, Rayleigh and Lognormal functions sity of site based on Weibull probability density function can be ex-
are commonly used for fitting the measured wind speed probabil- pressed as
ity distribution.
The Weibull distribution is the most commonly used statistical 1 3 Cð1 þ 3=kÞ
Pm ¼ qv ð3Þ
distribution for describing wind speed data. Weibull distribution is 2 ½Cð1 þ 1=kÞ3
a good match with the experimental data. The idea is that only an-
In addition, for a height less than 100 m, the power density of the
nual or monthly average wind speeds are sufficient to predict the
wind above the ground level is given by [10]
complete frequency distribution of the year or the month [10].
 3a
As indicated by Gökçek et al. [9], the Weibull distribution func- h
tion which is a two-parameter distribution is a special case of gen- Ph ¼ P10 ð4Þ
10
eralized gamma distribution for wind speed and is expressed as
  k  where P10 is the corrected power available in wind at a height of
k v k1 v 10 m and a is the roughness factor, usually in the range 0.05–0.5.
f ðv Þ ¼ exp  ð1Þ
c c c Wind speed data were extrapolated by using the following
In order to estimate Weibull k and c parameters, numerous meth- power-law formula [11]
ods have been proposed over last few years. In this study, the two  a
v1 h1
parameters of Weibull are determined by using mean wind ¼ ð5Þ
v2 h2
speed–standard deviation method [9].
As displayed by Eskin et al. [11], it is well known that the power where v1 and v2 are the wind velocities at heights h1 and h2,
of the wind that flows at speed V through a blade sweep area A in- respectively.
creases as the cubic of its velocity and is given by using the follow- The capacity factor Cf is one of the performance parameters of
ing equation: wind turbines which both the user and manufacturer need to
know. It represents the fraction of the total energy delivered over
1
Pðv Þ ¼ qAv 3 ð2Þ a period, Eout, divided by the maximum energy that could have
2 been delivered if the turbine was used at maximum capacity over
where q is mean air density, v3 is mean value of the third power of the entire period, Er = 8760Pr. The capacity factor Cf of a wind tur-
the wind speed and A is sweep area. The average wind power den- bine can be calculated as [17]

Table 2
Mean monthly and annual wind speed (m/s) at a height of 10 m.

Station Month Annual mean wind speed

January February March April May June July August September October November December
Erzurum 6.2 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.8 8.8 9.6 9.7 9.3 8.9 7.1 6.5 8.7
Elazığ 7.2 8.4 9.8 10.7 10.9 9.7 8.7 8.4 7.7 7.1 6.7 6.3 8.5
Bingöl 4.4 4.5 6.0 7.2 7.5 7.1 6.2 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.3 5.9
Kars 9.1 8.8 8.5 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.2 6.2 8.4 9.1 6.9
Manisa 7.1 7.9 8.6 8.5 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.4 6.7 7.4
Niğde 7.6 8.7 9.2 10.0 8.4 8.3 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.9 8.0
 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872
Fig. 2. Frequencies (%) of wind directions at all stations.
Eout
Cf ¼
Er
3. Wind speed data
The wind speed data were measured as hourly by Turkish State
Meteorological Service for a period between the years 2000 and
2006 at the six stations used in this study. The geographical loca-
tions of these stations are shown in Fig. 1. All measurements at
all the wind observation station are recorded using the cup ane-
mometer at a height of 10 m above the ground level. Table 1 shows
the geographical coordinates of meteorological stations used in the
study.
The mean monthly and annual averages of wind speed at a
height of 10 m are listed in Table 2. The maximum value of
monthly mean wind speed is determined as 10.9 m/s at Elazığ in
May and a minimum value of 4.3 m/s is occurred at Bingöl in
December. A maximum value of annual mean wind speed is ob-
1867
tained at Erzurum as 8.7 m/s. Table 3 shows monthly and annual
ð6Þ
variation of Weibull parameters (k and c) at all the stations. As seen
from this table, Weibull shape parameter k varies between 1.05
and 2.46, while scale parameter c varies between 4.74 and
12.41 m/s. The mean annual value of Weibull shape parameter k
is between 1.71 and 1.96 while the annual value of scale parameter
c is between 6.81 and 9.71 m/s. The shape parameter k has a min-
imum value of 1.05 at Bingöl in December and it has a maximum
value at Elazığ in March. It can be seen that the highest c value is
found at Elazığ in May as 12.41 m/s and the lowest c value of
4.734 m/s is at Bingöl in January.
Determining the wind speed according to wind direction is
important to conduct the wind energy researches and also displays
the impact of geographical features on the wind [18]. The relative
frequencies of wind directions during the period 2000–2006 at the
six stations are demonstrated in Fig. 2. According to this figure, the
most windward directions at Elazığ and Bingöl are northwest,
while the most windward direction at Kars and Erzurum are
1868 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872

Fig. 3. Monthly variation of mean wind speeds and wind power density for selected six stations.

Fig. 4. Estimated annual frequency distributions of wind speed of six stations.

 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872
Fig. 5. Mean wind speed and wind power of six stations for different heights.
north–north-western and east–north-eastern, respectively. The
most windward direction at Manisa which is in the western part
of Turkey is east–north-eastern. In the southern part of country,
the north-eastern wind direction is the most frequent.
Fig. 3 shows the monthly variation of mean wind speeds for se-
lected six stations. The highest monthly mean wind speed occurs
in spring season. The wind power density has its maximum value
in May for Elazığ. It is clear from the figure that the two curves
have similar changing trends, but the rate of change is not the
same. For instance, the highest value of monthly mean wind speed
for Kars is determined as 9 m/s in April and the highest value of the
wind power value of 1200 W/m2 is occurred in April.
4. Annual wind speed distributions
The estimated annual Weibull frequency distributions of wind
speed of the six stations are shown in Fig. 4. The peak frequencies
of all the stations are shifted towards the higher values of mean
wind speed. Erzurum has an annual mean wind speed value of
8.7 m/s, see Table 2 and peak frequency value of 20%, where Bingöl
has an annual mean wind speed of 5.9 m/s and peak frequency of
25%. It is seen from the figure that there are no frequencies for
mean wind speed of zero speed (calm winds). This is due to Wei-
bull distribution function is not taken into account calm frequen-
cies, where the mathematical formula of Weibull distribution
imposes zero probability [10].
Fig. 5 shows mean wind speed and wind power of the six sta-
tions for different heights. It is clear from the figures that the
1869
mean wind speed and wind power density increase with hub
height. The annual mean specific wind power density for Erzu-
rum and Bingöl is calculated to be 65 W/m2 and 42 W/m2 at
the height of 70 m, respectively. The annual mean wind speed
for Erzurum, Elazığ, Bingöl, Kars, Manisa and Niğde is found to
be 13.90, 13.72, 9.75, 12.13, 10.90 and 12.84 m/s at 70 m height,
respectively.
Seasonal wind speed frequency distributions in the six stations
are shown in Fig. 6. The peak frequency values vary in the differ-
ent seasons for each station. All the stations for winter season
have the peak frequencies in the range 0.08–0.17. The peak values
in all the stations for autumn season become between about 0.08
and 0.11.
Fig. 7 shows the annual variation of observed and Weibull wind
speed frequencies in Elazığ station. Maximum percentage error be-
tween Weibull wind speed frequencies and observed frequencies
occurs at 10 m/s wind speed with a value of 10%.
5. Wind power of selected turbines and energy output
The characteristic properties of the selected wind turbines are
given in Table 4. The power curves for the four turbines with differ-
ent rated power are shown in Fig. 8. The rated powers of these tur-
bines were 600 kW, 1250 kW, 1500 kW and 2000 kW.
Fig. 9 shows the relation between the yearly energy output as a
function of mean wind speed for the four wind turbines of capacity
600 kW, 1250 kW, 1500 kW and 2000 kW for the six stations. In
case of wind turbine with a capacity of 600 kW (De Wind D48),
1870 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872

Fig. 6. Seasonal wind speed frequency distributions in the six stations.

the maximum accumulated annual wind energy in the considered Table 4

Main characteristics of four different commercial wind turbines [24].
stations ranges from 170 MW h (in Bingöl) to 270 MW h (in Erzu-
rum station) per year. In case of wind turbine with a capacity of Characteristics De Wind De Wind De Wind De Wind
1500 kW (De Wind D7), the annual energy output range from 48 D6 D7 D8
635 to 382 MW h/year for the six stations It is seen from this figure Hub height (m) 40 65 70 80
that the maximum annual energy is derived from a wind speed Rated power Pr (kW) 600 1250 1500 2000
Sept area (m2) 1808 3019 3846 5027
15 m/s for wind turbine with a capacity of 2000 kW (De Wind
Cut-in wind speed Vci (m/s) 2.5 2.8 3 3
D8) in Erzurum station. The annual energy gain and capacity factor Rated wind speed Vr (m/s) 11.5 12.5 12 13.5
of four different wind turbines for all the stations is given in Table Cut-off wind speed Vco (m/s) 25 25 25 25
5. The highest capacity factor is obtained at Erzurum for all wind
turbines.

2500
De Wind 48
De Wind 6
2000
De Wind 7
De Wind 8
Power (kW)

1500

1000

500

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wind speed (m/s)
Fig. 7. Comparison of observed and calculated wind speed frequencies of Elazığ
station. Fig. 8. Power curves for the selected wind turbines.
 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872 1871

Fig. 9. Yearly energy output from four wind turbines as function of mean wind speed.

Table 5
Annual energy gain and capacity factor of four different wind turbines for all the stations.

Station De Wind 48 De Wind D6 De Wind D7 De Wind D8

Eout (kW h/year) Cf (%) Eout (kW h/year) Cf (%) Eout (kW h/year) Cf (%) Eout (kW h/year) Cf (%)
Bingöl 1,702,458.5 32 3,063,200.5 28 3,828,212.2 29 4,271,280.0 24
Elazığ 2,684,687.0 51 5,098,987.3 46 6,306,775.8 47 7,454,359.6 42
Erzurum 2,704,086.3 52 5,121,181.5 47 6,349,264.4 48 7,460,806.6 43
Kars 2,314,607.7 40 3,934,050.9 36 4,902,746.8 37 5,596,627.8 32
Manisa 2,311,628.9 44 4,295,558.0 39 5,347,872.6 41 6,153,327.3 35
Niğde 2,532,560.8 48 4,753,189.8 43 5,907,973,5 45 6,897,354.5 39

6. Conclusions (2) The mean annual value of Weibull shape parameter k is

between 1.71 and 1.96 while the annual value of scale
In this study, the monthly and yearly wind speed distribution parameter c is between 6.81 and 9.71 m/s. The annual high-
and wind power density during the period of 2000–2006 in the six est values of k and c are found at Elazığ and Erzurum sta-
stations of Turkey were evaluated. It can be concluded as follows. tions, respectively.
(3) The most windward directions at Elazığ and Bingöl are
(1) The maximum value of monthly mean wind speed is deter- northwest, while the direction at Kars and Erzurum are
mined as 10.9 m/s at Elazığ in May and a minimum value of north–north-western and east–north-eastern, respectively.
4.3 m/s is occurred at Bingöl in December. A maximum value The north-eastern wind direction in the southern part of
of annual mean wind speed is obtained at Erzurum as 8.7 m/s. country is the most frequent.
1872 A. Ucar, F. Balo / Applied Energy 86 (2009) 1864–1872
(4) The annual mean specific wind power densities for Erzurum,
Elazığ, Bingöl, Kars, Manisa and Niğde are calculated to be
65 W/m2, 62 W/m2, 42 W/m2, 58 W/m2 and 60 W/m2 at
the height of 70 m, respectively.
(5) The maximum energy output is obtained from wind turbine
with a capacity of 2000 kW (De Wind D8) at all the locations.
The maximum energy output is found at Erzurum, while the
minimum energy output is at Bingöl. The results show that
Erzurum and Elazığ are the best regions for harnessing the
power of wind to generate energy followed in comparison
with all the regions studied here.
(6) The current study is an investigation study in order to esti-
mate wind energy potential of the six locations in Turkey.
These locations investigated in this study can be evaluated
as marginal area for economical electrical energy generation.
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