Name: _________________! U3.

LP4 Homework
Polling

Because the polling process attempts to be statistically accurate, it employs such terms used in
statistics as universe, population, and sample. Before a poll is begun it is necessary to define a
universe. This is the term that covers the specific population, or public, being surveyed. If the
population is to be women employed outside their homes, for example, it must be decided whether to
include all such women or to define a smaller universe—professional versus factory workers, full-time
employees versus part-time.

The next step is deciding how to select the sample. For a structured population like the Army, where
each individual can be assigned a number, it is possible to select a mathematically random sample. A
less reliable method is to choose one of every so many in the population—such as every tenth
person.

These two methods work fairly well when dealing with a definite and limited population whose total
number is known. In surveying the general population they do not work as well, so a quota sampling
system is used instead. This is an attempt to find a sample with enough diversity to represent the
characteristics of the whole population with regard to such components as number of women in
relation to men, minority representation, rich and poor, rural and urban, youth and aged, and so forth.

Quota sampling prevents the answers to a questionnaire from being slanted in one way or another by
an unrepresentative sample. It has been found that for most general surveys a national sample of
about 1,500 is adequate. No matter how carefully chosen the sample, there is always a margin for
error in interpreting poll results.

Making a suitable questionnaire requires skill. The questions must be clear to individuals of different
educational levels, and they must be in logical order. Some questionnaires are designed for “yes” or
“no” answers. Others are patterned after a multiple-choice test. A third type allows respondents to
answer by stating their opinions in their own words.

The wording of questions should be as neutral as possible, or it may influence the answer. The
question “Are you in favor of having your taxes raised to pay for higher education?” is more likely to
get a negative response than, “Do you favor the president's recommendation to increase federal aid
to higher education?” If people have strong opinions on a subject, the wording of a question is less
likely to influence their answers.

Public opinion polls appear to be a valuable form of democracy in action. They are nevertheless
criticized for asking people to give opinions on matters in which they are not competent to make
statements. A more serious criticism is aimed at public officials who are accused of paying so much
attention to polls that they cater to popular preferences instead of acting from conviction. The result is
to have issues decided not on their merits but on the basis of what a segment of the population thinks
on a given day.

Polls have been accused of creating a “bandwagon effect”—people change their views and votes to
be on the winning side. In the same way polls can influence campaign contributions, depending on a
candidate's standing. Exit polls, in which people are asked how they have just voted, are denounced
for influencing the results of elections. Someone hearing an exit poll may decide that certain
candidates have no chance of winning and so does not bother to vote.
Name: _________________! U3.LP4 Homework

Questions:
1. Why are polls used?

2. What are the main steps in creating a poll that will be accurate?

3. What can happen if questions are worded in a certain way?

4. Give an example of a neutral question. (You should make this up)

5. What are three of the criticisms of public opinion polling?

6. Explain why it would be a problem if candidates changed their opinions to match what the majority
opinion in a poll.

7. What is the bandwagon effect?

8. What are exit polls?

9. Why are exit polls criticized?

10. Would you NOT vote if you hear that the candidate you planned on voting for was did not have
the majority of votes according to exit polls?