Adv a nced D ecision Ana lysis

wit h P or t f olio a nd P r oject

M odeling - AD A
Dis cip line: Petroleum Business
L evel: Specialized
Durat io n: 5 days
Ins t ruct o r( s ) : T im Nieman, John Schuyler

Quality forecasts and evaluations depend upon well-designed project and portfolio
models that are based upon clear decision policy, sound professional judgments, and a
good decision process. In this course participants learn to build good models. We use
the familiar Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as the platform for project and risk assessment
models. Add-in software provides Monte Carlo and decision tree capabilities. T he
course emphasis is on the evaluation concepts and techniques, rather than particular
software programs.

"I liked learning about portfolio optimization, the Monte Carlo Simulation, and decision
modeling." - Participant

"It was a great class! I would recommend this class to my colleagues." - EOR Reservoir
Engineer, United States

Des ig ned Fo r:
Evaluation engineers, analysts, managers, planners, and economists. T his course is
intended for professionals involved with developing project evaluation, portfolio, and
other forecasting and assessment models. Prior background in decision analysis is
expected. Before registering, please visit http://www.decisionapplications.com/ada-
pre-read/ to review a course prerequisites list and to take a short self-assessment quiz.
You may login using 'ada' (no quotes) as the password.

Y o u Will L earn:
How T o:

Frame, build, and evaluate decision models and extract key insights
Apply the exponential utility function for risk policy
Design investment portfolio optimization models that include constraints,
requirements, and typical interrelationships between projects
Use decision tree software for value of imperfect information analysis
Use Monte Carlo simulation software with optimization
Develop quality Excel models for projects and portfolios

Co urs e Co nt ent :
Decision Modeling: application of DA process for modeling; influence diagrams;
sensitivity analysis; good modeling practices; real options overview
Monte Carlo Simulation: multi-pay prospect risking (similar to play analysis);
calculating probabilities and distributions with simulation; modeling and optimizing
investment portfolios; valuing added control and flexibility; stopping rules; ways to
 model correlation
Decision T ree Analysis: value of information review; sensitivity analysis; solving with
utility for risk aversion
Decision Policy: portfolio optimization to maximize value; efficient frontiers; multi-
criteria decisions; risk policy as a utility function; expected utility and certain
equivalent; insurance and hedging; optimizing working interests
Implementation: eliciting a decision maker's or organization's preferences for trade-
offs among objectives, time value, and risk attitude; decision analysis presentation
agendas and formats; special topics from the instructor's own research and
experience

Ins t ruct o rs :

MR. T IM NIEMAN has 30 years of experience as a risk and decision analyst, economist
and petroleum scientist. His professional experience includes 20 years in leading and
conducting projects of various sizes and scopes involving the application of decision
and risk analysis methodologies in the energy and environmental sectors, and 10 years
as a practicing petroleum geophysicist. His background includes work in decision
analysis, risk analysis, business modeling, financial forecasting, strategic planning, R&D
portfolio management, software development, geology, and geophysics. Mr. Nieman
has also taught numerous training seminars in decision analysis, economics and
quantitative modeling. He has a BS in geology and an MS in geophysics from Michigan
State University, and an MBA from Rice University.

MR. JOHN SCHUYLER, CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PMP and PE, is a decision analyst,
evaluation engineer, and investor. He founded his consulting practice, Decision
Precision, in 1988. He has over 37 years of experience in analysis, consulting, training
and management, primarily in the energy industry. His focus has been in feasibility
analysis, appraisals, corporate planning, and evaluation software. He has presented
over 290 courses in 34 countries since 1989. He was vice president and petroleum
engineer with Security Pacific National Bank, planning and evaluation analyst at Cities
Service Oil Co., manager of business systems for Cities Service's Petrochemicals
Division, and senior management consultant with a national accounting firm. He is a
member of eight professional organizations and is an author and speaker on modern
analysis practices. He is the revision author of Decision Analysis for Petroleum
Exploration, 2nd Ed., author of Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Ed., and has
written over 40 articles, papers and handbook chapters. He received BS and MS
degrees in mineral-engineering physics from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA
from the University of Colorado. His website is www.maxvalue.com.

In-Ho us e Co urs e P res ent at io ns

All courses are available for in-house presentation to individual organizations. In-house
courses may be structured the same as the public versions or tailored to meet your
requirements. Special courses on virtually any petroleum-related subject can be
arranged specifically for in-house presentation. For further information, contact our In-
House T raining Coordinator at one of the numbers listed below.
T elephone 1- 832 426 1234
Facsimile 1- 832 426 1244
E-Mail inhouse@petroskills.com

P ub lic Co urs e P res ent at io ns

How to contact PetroSkills:
1-800-821-5933 toll-free in North America or
T elephone 1-918-828-2500
Facsimile 1-918-828-2580
E-Mail registrations@petroskills.com
Internet www.petroskills.com
Address P.O. Box 35448, T ulsa, Oklahoma 74153-0448, U.S.A