Forest Conversion Drivers in the

Province of Quirino, Northern

Sierra Madre Region
I. Rationale

During the landscape dialogues in 2018, and further discussed during the national dialogue in
2019, land conversion emerged as one of the major issues in the forest areas. Forest
conversion or deforestation is the clearing of natural forest lands to be used for another type of
land use. Deforestation has adverse effects on forest ecosystems, especially on the produce
and services it provides. As documented during the dialogues, leading causes of deforestation
are expansion of agricultural areas, and development of mining sites. Other causes of
deforestation include uncontrolled human settlements, and urbanization through the
construction of different infrastructure projects (dams, roads, etc.). While these actions carry
merits and provide positive effects in the economy and development of an area, these equally
have negative impacts on the ecosystem. Adverse impacts are most likely to be felt by the
areas if practices do not adhere to the inherent capacities of the environment, as well as to the
environmental laws and regulations in place to ensure proper management and sustainable
development of forests.

Participants of the dialogues from the project focal landscapes deem it necessary to have
information on where deforestation is happening, and what forces are driving the increasing
deforestation rates. Having these up-to-date spatial information at hand will decision makers to
prioritize how they would allocate limited resources in preventing further deforestation, and
restoring the environment. This information would also help in assessing the effectiveness, and
gaps of mechanisms that are currently in place, and aid in improving them through new
processes, guidelines, and policies. Having a better understanding of this issue would enhance
the capabilities of both the community and local government in addressing and managing forest
landscapes.

To support this initiative, SILG is proposing a change detection analysis of forest areas in the
Northern Sierra Madre region landscape, particularly in the Province of Quirino. The use of
Geographic Information System (GIS), and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques, coupled with
participatory resource appraisal, are required to identify historical forest states and conversions
in the province to project potential areas of forest conversions in the future. These spatial
historical data and information will be of more value if coupled with identified drivers of change.
This engagement would enhance the understanding of stakeholders of the complexities of forest
conversion, its impact on ecosystem services, livelihoods, resettlements, and the development
of their landscape.

II. Objectives

The project aims to use different mapping techniques in analyzing and understanding the land
conversion dynamics in the landscape. Specifically, the project intends to:
1. Map out deforestation areas and other land cover changes in the province using
remotely sensed data (10-year and 20-year timeline);
2. Identify the present and past land use classification for deforestation areas
3. Provide predictive models and simulations of potential land conversion areas (can focus
on forest areas); and
4. Identify initial drivers of land conversion or forest change.

III. Methodology

This section provides a proposed process that the grantee needs to undergo in order to meet
the outcomes of this project.

(Grantees are given the flexibility to propose a different approach in undertaking this project)

Project inception period

● Meeting with the SILG team and landscape coordinator
● Meeting with local stakeholders
● Preparation before field visit

Data gathering
● Collect locally available geospatial data of the land cover, land use, protected areas
(NIPAS, ancestral domain, SAFDZ, etc.)
● Collect open-source and remotely sensed data (possible sources: MODIS, Landsat,
Sentinel 1 and 2)
● Collect development plans of the LGUs
● Conduct KIIs or FGDs with local stakeholders
o Map out land conversion areas
o Flesh out their experiences on land use change and forest conversion
● Collect results and recommendations from previous studies conducted in the area

Data processing
● Fix of topology
● Projection to WGS 1984
● Standardize attribute tables
● Establish training data and vegetation indexes using remotely sensed data
● Land cover classification using training data and vegetation indexes
Data analysis
● Land cover change (if necessary and is not yet available)
● Characterization of previous land conversion areas
o Change hotspots (Specific areas which have been subject to long-term changes)
o Contextualizing land conversion as a function of planning process, development
agenda setting, and local experiences
o Drivers of land use change and forest conversion

● Identification of potential land conversion sites

o Development of a criteria or indicator to identify potential land conversions in the
future
▪ Can either be spatial scenario models, or a criteria-based classification
fleshed out from the multi-stakeholder consultations

Data validation
● Ground truthing
● Validation of analysis results
● Identify root causes of the land conversion areas and forest changes from
local stakeholders and communities

Report writing and presentation of results

● Project documentation report and technical report
● Presentation of results to the Foundation, and local stakeholders (community, partner
organizations, LGUs or barangay officials)

IV. Expected outputs

The following deliverables are expected to be produced during this engagement:

1. Present land cover map
2. Land cover map
3. Land use change or forest change maps
4. Initial analysis on drivers of land use change or forest conversion
5. Documented methodology on detecting potential forest conversion areas
6. Maps of potential forest conversion areas
7. Geospatial database of all collected and processed data
8. Final Reports
a. Project Documentation Report
b. Technical Report
V. Intended outcomes

The following list contains the intended outcomes of the project:

1. Realization of the communities and the local government that landscape governance,
especially forest management, is a partnership between multiple sectors because it is a
cross-cutting responsibility for everyone that has a stake on it.
2. A more cohesive collaboration between the communities and the local government unit
in monitoring and managing forest areas.