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2. Outline
Instructor Notes: Lesson 2 of IC 6 is divided into five sections. In Part 1 we discussed
the learning and performance objectives, the utility of p-type algorithms, and then we
focused on the Baldwin technique and the Ramer technique. Now, in Part 2, we will dis-
cuss the Bourgouin Method and Partial Thickness Method.
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rological Services of Canada since the mid 1990’s. The method was developed by
looking at a data set of cases in which surface precipitation observations were collocated
with upper air soundings. The upper air soundings provided the vertical temperature
structure needed to establish the criteria utilized in the method. RAOB drift was not
accounted for and values were assumed to be above the sounding site. The precipitation
had to be reported within one hour of the time that the sounding was taken and at the
same location for it to be included in the data set utilized to tune the method. This criteria
and the fact that the technique was tuned over only two winter seasons (1989-90 and
1990-91) resulted in a small training data set. For example, it was initially tuned to 54
cases of freezing rain versus ice pellets, 119 cases of rain versus snow, and 3-5 cases of
ice pellets versus rain. The number of cases with respect to ice pellets versus rain is
uncertain in that there is no information on the exact state of the hydrometeor aloft, (i.e.,
as it enters a surface based warm layer) so the number of cases is estimated.
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vertical profile changes the distribution of the positive and negative areas will change as
well which may result in different Bourgouin charts being utilized for different time periods
in the forecast time frame of concern. The best place to view the output from the Bour-
gouin technique is in the BUFKIT software. In BUFKIT the Bourgouin output can be dis-
played for any model sounding. As you step through the hourly or three hourly
soundings, with the Bourgouin technique toggled on, the appropriate chart will display
based on the distribution of the positive and negative areas in the profile.
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corresponding to lower temperatures. Previous research has shown that reliable precipi-
tation type thresholds for thicknesses can be determined for a given station. For exam-
ple, it was determined many years ago that snow was favored over rain at many
locations when the 1000-500 mb thickness is below 540 dm. Similar thresholds have
been determined at many locations for smaller layers, such as 1000 to 850 mb and the
850 to 700 mb. The term “Partial” in Partial Thickness refers to the fact that these layers
comprise only part of the traditional 1000 to 500 mb layer. Modern computing power now
allows forecasters to easily compute observed and model forecast thicknesses for a vari-
ety of layers, and allows forecasters to combine and display combinations of various
thicknesses in a variety of ways in order to visualize the horizontal and vertical tempera-
ture profile in an effort to forecast precipitation type.
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cal structure of the atmosphere, especially in situations where very shallow layers of
warm or cold air are present. For example, rain can sometimes occur at stations near
large, unfrozen bodies of water when partial thickness values are below typical rain/snow
thresholds, if a shallow, mild layer of maritime air is present near the surface. Another
weakness of partial thickness is that threshold values can vary by station, depending on
the geographic characteristics of the station. For example, locations at higher elevations
tend to have higher rain/snow thresholds of partial thickness. Forecasters should also
keep in mind that microphysical processes are not accounted for in any partial thickness
technique. For example, the partial thickness technique may erroneously predict snow in
situations where the entire sounding is below freezing, yet the moist layer does not
extend into a layer where the temperature is below -10 degrees C and therefore the pro-
file is not likely to support heterogeneous nucleation. Because of these weaknesses, it is
not recommended that partial thickness forecasting techniques be used alone to forecast
precipitation type. If you choose to utilize the partial thickness technique it may be best to
utilize partial thicknesses for plan view visualization, and visualization of atmospheric
processes, and then utilize more through sounding interrogation to account for shallow
warm and cold layers, as well as for microphysical considerations.
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mary weakness of the Baldwin method is with how it handles deep isothermal layers
near the surface with temperatures between 0 degrees C and -4 degrees C. If these lay-
ers are sufficiently deep the Baldwin method will produce a forecast of rain or freezing
rain it what is ultimately a snow sounding. The Ramer method may be the strongest algo-
rithm statistically speaking. Another strength is its use of the wet-bulb temperature in a
top-down process to determine precipitation type. It may be a more robust algorithm than
the others, but it is correspondingly more difficult to understand how it arrived at a given
precipitation type. While it is not as visually appealing as the others the primary weak-
ness of the method is it's inability to assess dry layers. The Bourgouin method again is
easy to understand and has very useful charts to help visualize why it is producing a
given precipitation type. The method is based on precipitation types associated with
actual observed soundings which is a strength. However, the Bourgouin method does
not check the initial state of the hydrometeor and, as a result, will assume ice crystals are
present in some situations where heterogeneous nucleation has not been achieved.
Another significant weakness is the use of T instead of Tw. Partial thickness concepts
are particularly useful in plan views and for visualization of the potential distribution of
precipitation. The methodology itself may not be as detailed as the others, but it readily
lends itself assessing a larger area without requiring us as forecasters to look at a multi-
tude of point soundings. Significant weaknesses of partial thickness techniques are that
they do not consider microphysical concepts and do not take advantage of the details
available in high resolution model data.
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time. Output from the partial thickness method can be displayed for any BUFR output in
BUFKIT. It is also available in AWIPS as a local add-on to the Volume Browser selec-
tions.
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28. Questions???
Instructor Notes: After going through this lesson if you have any questions, first ask
your SOO, or local AWOC winter track facilitator. Your SOO or local facilitator should be
able to help answer many questions. If you need additional info from what your SOO pro-
vided, send an E-mail to the address on the slide. This address sends the message to all
the instructors involved with this IC. Our answer will be CC’d to your SOO so that they
can answer any similar questions that come up in the future. We may also consider the
question and answer for our FAQ page. Thanks for your time and good luck on the exam!
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29. References
Instructor Notes: References
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30. References
Instructor Notes: Additional references
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