ESTIMATION:

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
3/4/2020
Determining a Confidence Interval (CI) for MEAN

CI = Y ± Z ( sY )
where:
Y = sample mean (estimate of µ)
Z = Z score associated with level of
acceptable error.
s Y = estimated standard error
Confidence Interval for a PROPORTION

p ± Z (s p )
where:
p = observed sample proportion (estimate of p)
Z = Z score for one-half the acceptable error
sp = estimated standard error of the proportion
Confidence Intervals for Proportions

Protestants in favor of banning stem cell research:

n = 2,188, p = .37
(.37)(1 - .37)
Calculate the estimated standard error: S p = = .01
2,188
Determine the confidence level

Lets say we want to

be 95% confident
Confidence Intervals for Proportions

Catholics in favor of banning stem cell research:

n = 880, p = .32
(.32)(1 - .32)
Calculate the estimated standard error: S p = = .016
880
Determine the confidence level

Lets say we want to

be 95% confident
Confidence Intervals for Mean

Calculate the estimated standard error:

.05

Determine the confidence level

Let’s say we want to be
99% confident
= 3.04 to 3.3
Hypothesis Testing: Types of Hypotheses

Conceptual Hypothesis: Relates theoretical concepts (exp:

poverty leads to crime)

Research Hypothesis: Relates observable events

Experimental (exp: Milgram)
Correlational (exp: Summer & Ice Cream)

Statistical Hypothesis: Relates statistical properties of data

(exp: mortality risk is higher among U.S. men without a
HS degree than among U.S. men with a HS degree)
Testing Hypotheses

Statistical hypothesis testing – A procedure that allows us

to evaluate hypotheses about population parameters based
on sample statistics.

Research hypothesis (H1) – A statement reflecting the

substantive hypothesis. It is always expressed in terms of
population parameters, but its specific form varies from test
to test.
Null hypothesis (H0) – A statement of “no difference” or
“fact” about the population parameter(s). The hypothesis
we actually test.
 Using Confidence Intervals to “Test” Hypotheses

Test the Null Hypothesis of “no difference” between the proportion

married in population 1 vs. population 2

Sample 1 Sample 2
p1 = .50 p2 = .71
n1 = 80 n2 = 120

95% CI?
99% CI?

Do the confidence intervals OVERLAP?

 Using Confidence Intervals to “Test” Hypotheses

Test the Null Hypothesis of “no difference” between proportion married

in population 1 vs. population 2. INCREASE sample sizes:

Sample 1 Sample 2
p1 = .50 p2 = .71
n1 = 300 n2 = 500

95% CI?
99% CI?

Do the confidence intervals OVERLAP?

To formally test: Z-Scores … but for what?

1. Single Mean

2. Single Proportion

3. Difference b/w Two Means

4. Difference b/w Two Proportions

Standard Errors… but for what?

1. Single Mean

2. Single Proportion
Standard Errors… but for what?

3. Difference between Two Means

4. Difference between Two Proportions