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Abstract
This article investigates the links between mediation determinants and mediation
outcomes in the Arab-Israeli conflict between 1948 and 2008. We identify the most
substantive and most researched cases of mediation in the conflict, as well as the most
several hypotheses about the significance of such factors to mediation outcome. Using
bivariate correlation analysis and various multiple regression models, we find that in the
context of this conflict, Arab-Israeli mediation has been most successful when used by
high-status third parties who employed manipulative strategies and focused on limited
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Introduction
Mediation is one of the oldest forms of conflict resolution and has been used extensively
interstate and intrastate conflicts. While definitions of, and approaches to mediation vary,
more parties, for the purpose of improving the nature of interaction between the
disputants (Kressel and Pruitt, 1989). Mediation is a distinct form of third party
intervention. It is initiated and performed on a voluntary and non-violent basis, and its
has proved to be the most popular form of contemporary conflict resolution, present in
nearly 60 percent of international and intrastate disputes between (Bercovitch and Fretter,
2004: 29), while nearly half of all post Cold War crisis were mediated by third parties
(Beardsley et. al., 2006: 59). However, despite the prevalence of mediation in
provide tangible hypotheses about the linkage between certain mediation characteristics
and the likelihood of a successful outcome. Whereas some studies of mediation tend to be
overly generic and lack rigorous testing of their propositions, others are insufficiently
descriptive footnotes.
The Arab-Israeli conflict (AIC) is perhaps the world‘s most protracted conflict
and has been visited by dozens of mediators since its inception in 1948. However despite
the diversity of third parties and their strategies, as well the as changes in global/regional
contexts and the nature of relationships between the disputants, very few studies of
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mediation have attempted to hypothesise about the relationship between contextual and
procedural factors of mediation and mediation outcomes in the Arab-Israeli conflict (see
for example Kriesberg, 2001; Siniver, 2006; Stein and Lewis, 1996). In its various forms,
the conflict includes a diverse yet comparable population of enduring rivalries (Greig,
2005). These represent the high end of interaction in the international system, and as they
are the most likely to escalate into protracted conflicts, they invariably necessitate the
intervention of third parties. We know that enduring conflicts (that is, repeated military
confrontations between two states over time) represent only 13 per cent of all
international conflicts, yet they account for more than half of all mediation efforts since
1945, and that they are ten times more likely to attract third party mediation. On average
such conflicts last for nearly 38 years and they attract at least 14 attempts at managing
them by third parties, though few of them succeed (Goertz and Diehl, 1993; Bercovitch
and Diehl, 1997). As a prime example of an enduring and intractable conflict then, we
can learn a lot from the experience of the Arab-Israeli conflict about possible links
In recent years the literature on mediation and conflict resolution more broadly
has seen a large number of normative studies which use formal models and game-theory
approaches to suggest when and how rational actors can mediate most effectively with
regards to the use of information and resources vis-à-vis the disputing parties (Kydd
2003, 2005; Rauchhaus 2006; Greig and Regan 2008). The reality of conflict however, is
that often mediators and disputants alike do not enjoy the degree of rationality, logic and
perfect information which is assumed by such normative studies. At the same time
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literature. Such studies can be scrutinised for imperfect data gathering or possible bias
selection, but they offer a useful platform to study the conditions for mediation success
and failure as part of a systematic, inductive framework which can offer generalised
observations about effective mediation with real policy relevance (Bercovitch 2005).
Whilst the AIC represents a single case of inquiry, its development over time in terms of
actors, mediation processes and the international context, provides in effect a larger
relationships between factors and conditions of mediation and mediation outcomes, with
empirical resonance which goes beyond this particular conflict (Rubin 1981; Bercovitch
1997).
Ever since the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948, dozens of third parties have offered
their services to the disputants, in the hope of bringing a successful resolution to arguably
the most protracted conflict in contemporary history. These third parties have entered the
conflict at its various stages, brandishing a wide range of mediation expertise and
capabilities. Some sought to achieve a lasting comprehensive peace between Israel and its
Arab neighbours, while others concentrated their efforts on more limited objectives, such
the history of third party mediation in the Arab-Israeli conflict points to a ‗dismal record‘
(Eisenberg and Caplan, 1998: 1). If success is judged by the longevity of the agreement,
then this record stands at just five long-term successes: Ralph Bunche‘s mediation of the
1949 armistice agreements which delineated the conflict‘s borders (the Green Line) and
remains a reference point to this day; Henry Kissinger‘s separation of Egyptian and
Israeli forces in the immediate aftermath of the 1973 October War, and further
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disengagement between Israeli, Egyptian and Syrian forces in 1974-5; Jimmy Carter‘s
mediation at Camp David which led to the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty; and the
secret Oslo channel which produced a historic and irreversible agreement between Israel
and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which, despite subsequent failures of
implementation of some of its terms remains the cornerstone of two decades of Israeli-
be measured simply by the mutual and formal signing of an agreement, rather than by the
ability of the disputants and external actors to maintain it over a long period of time, then
we can add four more cases of successful mediation in the Arab-Israeli conflict. These
include the 1970 Rogers plan, the 1983 Israel-Lebanon peace treaty, and the 1997 Hebron
agreement and the 1998 Wye River memorandum between Israel and the PLO.
Despite mediation being the most common method of conflict resolution in the post-Cold
mediation attributes and success is regularly debated by mediation scholars, there is still
no consensus as to why some mediation cases are successful when others are not. As
management is a tricky one‘ (1996: 361). Some scholars see the listing of general
political and cultural idiosyncrasies (Meyer, 1960; Simkin, 1971), while others adopt a
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more prescriptive approach by suggesting which conditions are more conducive to
consider the conditions under which mediation may be accepted in the first place. In their
study of mediation acceptance in civil wars, Greig and Regan claim that, ‗[o]ne way to
think about the acceptance of mediation is that both sides implicitly agree to make
concessions, or at least that they have some concessions to give under certain
for its ultimate success, it is of course not sufficient, and whilst many studies explore why
and when third parties choose to mediate, they cannot tell us why or when mediation is
likely to succeed (Regan, 1998; Greig, 2004; Terris and Maoz, 2005). As demonstrated
in intensity and the nature of the disputed issues, the disputants‘ decision to accept the
offer of third party mediation has sometimes more to do with saving face domestically or
gaining favour with the international community, than with a genuine desire to achieve a
settlement (Beardsley, 2010). This also applies to the mediator‘s decision to offer his/her
services based on a cost-benefit analysis. Despite the obvious costs, such as damage to
reputation in the event of failure, in some instances third parties will seek to mediate in
the first place or continue to do so knowing that the chances of success are slim, as means
to maintain a regional or global role or in order to keep the parties talking simply to avoid
the resumption of violence. Third parties are also more likely to offer their services if
they have established relations with at least one of the parties, or they have
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expertise or resources to offer effective mediation (Smith and Stam, 2003; Greig, 2005;
process and mediation as outcome. Whilst they represent consecutive phases under the
broad umbrella of ‗mediation‘, the factors determining them are somewhat different. The
impartiality, whereas studies of the outcome of mediated agreements have highlighted the
Cousens, 2002; Walter, 2002). The question of why successfully mediated agreements
sometime fail to produce durable peace is important because of the implicit assumption
whereas in reality this may not be the case. In a prolonged and intractable conflict
conditions are rarely auspicious to dialogue and compromise, and even the conclusion of
an agreement with the good will of the disputants and the expert assistance of the
mediator does not guarantee its durability in a volatile and violent environment – note for
example the successful mediation and subsequent collapse of the 1983 Israel-Lebanon
peace treaty and the 1993 Oslo accords between Israel and the PLO. This empirical
Management dataset suggests that high intensity and protracted conflicts are unlikely to
end in a full-scale agreement, mediated or not, and that any agreement reached is likely to
be limited and short-lived (see also Carment et. al., 2009). In such a hostile environment,
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achieving a limited ceasefire can be a huge success for the mediator and disputants alike
The distinction between mediation process and outcome can be explained with
mediation. The first approach offers seemingly objective criteria which look at the
ultimate consequences of the mediation effort. These criteria are often defined broadly to
compensate for the idiosyncratic nature of specific events. This allows the observer
analysing patterns of mediation while ignoring the motives of the disputants and the
mediator. This approach is closely linked to the structuralist paradigm of mediation and
rational choice theories, which explain the occurrence and outcomes of mediation by
important signposts such as timing and power (Haass, 1990; Princen, 1992). Accordingly
success here is measured by the occurrence of objective and observable events, such as a
cease-fire, a peace treaty or other tangible political settlements (Touval, 1982; Kriesberg,
1991; Bercovitch and Houston, 1996). This approach of defining success in terms of
political settlements may fail to account, however, for the degree of effectiveness of
where the second approach comes in, attempting to bridge the gap between results and
perceptions. While the first approach eschews any discussion of the subjective
interpretations of the disputants or the mediator to the bargaining process, this approach
changing attitudes, largely outside the structures of formal negotiation. This approach is
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mediation is defined here in terms of the (subjective) perceptions of the disputants and
the mediator of their respective efforts to accomplish their aims as they were outlined at
the initiation of the process (Smith, 1985; Hopmann, 1995). In addition to effectiveness,
other criteria to evaluate success here may include fairness, efficiency and satisfaction
(Katz 1999), and while these intangible abstractions are not without their merit, it is clear
that the very personal and subjective nature of such criteria cannot, on its own, provide an
Research design
We adopt the first approach to evaluate mediation success, that is, we take the conclusion
distinction between process and outcome. We find that out of 24 cases of mediation in the
Arab-Israeli conflict, nine were concluded with some kind of a formal agreement, ranging
protracted, high intensity conflict such as the one between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
failures of mediation. Our nine cases of successful mediation are not equal in their
historic significance or indeed in their longevity – some have collapsed fairly rapidly
whereas others are still honoured by the parties several decades later. For this reason we
treat mediation success/failure not as a dichotomous outcome but rather across a dynamic
spectrum which takes into account issues such as significance, longevity, the
international context, and the objectives of the disputants and mediator at the initiation of
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the process. Specifically, we borrow the typology used by Beardsley et. al. (2006) to code
reduction (lasting more than 12 months); 4= formal agreement but resumption of violence
over previously agreed issues within 5 years; 5= enduring formal agreement, lasting more
than 5 years.
The long history of mediation efforts to bring an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict in all
First, we surveyed the entire population of third party mediation in the conflict
between 1948-2008 and identified the most significant and most researched cases for our
analysis – we found 24 such cases. While individual case studies are notorious for their
arrive at comparable data for all 24 cases. Of course, any systematic analysis of 24 cases,
using potential explanatory variables will necessarily have to be somewhat tentative. The
number of cases is sufficiently large to detect very strong relationships, but insufficient to
determine whether or not weaker (and even moderate) associations are reflecting real
relationship exists) is as real as that of Type-2 errors (incorrectly concluding that there is
no relationship between variables), although the latter is mitigated by the fact that we are
predominantly interested in whether any factors have strong effects on outcomes. The
only solution for this problem consists of increasing the number of cases for analysis, but
this is not feasible as we have covered all substantive mediation efforts in this conflict.
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We do not include every case of diplomatic activity in this period for
methodological and epistemological reasons. Some cases are not as well researched as
others, and as such could not offer substantial contribution to knowledge or be compared
effectively to other cases. Touval, for example, cites at least five failed cases of
mediation from the early 1950s (1982: 106), however their relative obscurity and
inconsequential impact on the progression of the conflict meant that they were not
followed in subsequent by multiple and authoritative accounts, on par with the cases
selected here. Furthermore, some periods in the conflict have seen an influx of mediators
than individual efforts with discernible characteristics, such as the long list of American
special envoys who visited the region in the run up to the 1983 Israel-Lebanon peace
treaty, or the various officials who have come to facilitate Israeli-Palestinian talks in the
past decade under the terms of reference of the Road Map framework. In essence then,
our population of cases is comprised of mediation efforts, rather than mediators; naming
every diplomat who ever shuttled between Israeli and Arab capitals will do little to
further our understanding of the linkage between certain mediation determinants and
mediation outcomes. We are concerned here with important chapters in the diplomatic
Second, each of our 24 cases was broken into its constituent elements in relation
to three distinct categories: context, mediator’s capacity and process. Taken together,
there are 24 such independent variables which cover the range of mediation experience in
the AIC. Our contextual factors include the scope of mediated issues (e.g. Jerusalem,
refugees, water, etc.), the degree of power asymmetry between the parties and point in
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time in the conflict cycle in which mediation took place. As for the mediator‘s capacity to
and status/rank. The procedural variables covered a range of issues such as mediation
strategies, degrees of visibility of the process as well as its objectives as identified by the
mediator.
The analysis will use bivariate correlation and ordinary least squares (OLS)
regression in order to fit models that best describe the data involving our independent
variables and the dependent variable, Outcome of Mediation. To allow for interceding
variables in every one of our cases of Arab-Israeli mediation. All of our variables,
including the outcome of every mediation effort are treated as continuous rather than
dichotomous factors. Coding our variables and indeed the outcome as either
present/absent or success/failure would have been a too blunt instrument which would not
account for degrees of success, longevity, significance, etc. Treating all our variables as
continuous allows for a more accurate survey of factors and a more nuanced analysis of
results. Given that we are dealing with events data such as the ranking of issues in terms
(sometimes with limited sets of categories) – we subject all of our data to inter-coder
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Determinants of mediation
There have been several attempts by academics to capture the range of the mediation
experience, and specifically the desired attributes of the ideal mediator (Wall and Lynn,
1993; Wall, Stark and Standifer, 2001). Some of these determinants do not require
evident, for example, that the mediator‘s intelligence, tact, tenacity, and other
interpersonal skills are conducive (though not sufficient) to successful mediation. Other
24 variables which we believe capture the essence of mediation in the AIC in the past six
decades, divided into the following categories: contextual, mediator’s capacity and
procedural. Similar typologies are common in the literature (Frei, 1976; Touval, 1982;
Bercovitch and Langley, 1993; Kleiboer, 1996), and they all share the assumption that the
the context of the conflict, the qualities of the mediator and the process of mediation.
i. Contextual factors
The literature is rather vague on the effect of contextual variables on the outcome of
mediation. Some suggest that protracted and intense disputes are more difficult to resolve
by mediation (Frei, 1976; Bercovitch, 1991), while others contend that the disputants will
be more likely to accept outside mediation in the face of spiralling violence (Young,
1967; Beardsley et. al., 2005). The context of mediation refers to systemic variables
which mostly determine the degree of manoeuvrability of the mediator before the process
has even begun. Thus in the context of the AIC for example, the nature of the dispute and
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the issues to be resolved are independent to the identity of the mediator. Moreover, past
relations between the disputants, their balance of power or the historical, political,
religious and ideological idiosyncrasies of the disputed issues may often invite certain
types of mediators while excluding others. In this context, a cursory review of the
diplomatic history of the AIC reveals the predominance of U.S.-led mediation efforts
since the late 1960s and the marginal role of other external actors, such as the United
Nations.
significant bearing on the success or failure of mediation. The importance the parties
attach to a disputed issue will have a bearing on the identity of the mediator, the
mediator‘s choice of strategies, and ultimately the likelihood of success. Ott (1972: 616)
for example, argues that the ‗absence of vital national security interests, particularly
success. In a similar fashion, Randle (1973: 49) suggests that ‗should a dispute affect
vital security interests of the parties, no amount of mediation by a third party is likely to
prevent the outbreak of hostilities.‘ Historically, the AIC has revolved around the
following core issues: Jerusalem, security/borders, refugees and settlements. The entire
range of issues cannot be treated dichotomously however, with these core issues situated
For example, it can be argued that control of water resources in the Arab-Israeli conflict
is just as urgent as the core issues, however over the years it has been seen as being of
secondary importance by mediators and disputants alike, though in the long-term its
resolution is as imperative as that of the core issues. To reflect this complexity in terms of
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our operationalisation and analysis of the data, as a first step we identify the issues that
existed at the time of a particular mediation event. As a second step, we rate each issue
contained within a specific mediation event on the basis of its complexity and historical
significance, using a scale rating of 0 – 100 (100 representing maximum complexity and
calculate total (mean average) issues score for each specific mediation event. Our
hypothesis will test the notion that mediation success is dependent on how ‗hard‘ or ‗soft‘
Hypothesis A1: Mediations that address the core issues of the AIC (Jerusalem,
security/borders, refugees and settlements) are less likely to be successful than those
addressing issues perceived as ‘softer’ by the parties
The issue of balance of power (or power symmetry) between the disputants is less
contested in the literature, with most observers agree that as long as one party feels that it
has the upper hand, it will not be inclined to engage productively with mediation, and
therefore rough parity is crucial for achieving compromise (Young, 1967; Kressel, 1981;
Touval, 1982). By asymmetrical conflict we mean a conflict where one party has a
territorial or military advantage, or that its history of previous relationship with the
mediator makes its position at the negotiation table more powerful (see for example the
blatant asymmetry in power between Israel and the PLO during the Clinton years).
Asymmetry in power is therefore expected to have a bearing on the process, and perhaps
even the outcome, of mediation (Aggestam 2002; Quinn et. al. 2006).
Hypothesis A2: Mediations where rough power symmetry exists between the
parties are more likely to be successful than those where there is clear power
asymmetry between the parties
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The contextual variable of timing in mediation is perhaps more difficult to
conceptualise. It is not static like the nature of the conflict or the issues at hand – these
rarely change in essence. Here, however, the initiation of the mediation process is
determined by the disputants and the mediator. This creates endless opportunities during
the life of the conflict, leading to the assumption that choosing the right entry point can
sometimes make the difference between success and failure in mediation (Stein and
Lewis, 1996). However there is no consensus in the literature regarding the most
opportune time for mediators to enter the conflict, and how to distinguish points in time
as more or less ‗ripe‘ for mediation (Crocker, Hampson and Aall, 2003). Whilst it has
been suggested that ‗knowing when to use mediation may be more important than how
often it is used‘ (Bercovitch, 1997: 145), assessing when is the most propitious time for
mediation is a difficult task, and various studies have attempted to identify the ripe
moment for mediation (Kleiboer, 1994; Zartman, 1985, 2001; Rubin, 1992; Haass, 1990;
Lyons and Khadiagala, 2008). Much like Abba Eban‘s famous quip, that men and nations
behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives, we argue that mediation is
more likely to succeed when both disputants have decided that the continuing costs of the
status quo are no longer tolerable, or in other words, when the disputants have come to
the conclusion that they will be better off with a settlement than without one. Some
contend that this realisation only comes late in the conflict, and therefore mediators
incentives to accept mediation (Rubin, 1981). Others propose that mediation needs to be
firmly initiated before such threshold of violence is reached and perceptions of the other
side have hardened (Edmead, 1971). A ripe moment opens for the mediator a window of
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time which provides the best opportunity to succeed. To assess ripeness, the notions of
conflict cycle and hurting stalemate are often used in the literature. A conflict cycle
suggests that most conflicts are characterised by sequential phases, namely rising of
tensions, confrontation, and the outbreak of hostilities, followed by military clashes. The
reconciliation (Bercovitch and Langley, 1993; Crocker et. al., 1999). In the AIC the
notion of (phases of) a conflict cycle is difficult to employ, as reversals in the conflict
cycle, or ‗leaps‘ between escalatory and de-escalatory phases are common. For example,
the 1990s saw the signing of several Israeli-Palestinian agreements, accompanied almost
leaves us with the concept of a hurting stalemate as perhaps the best benchmark to gauge
when mediation should be initiated and when it is likely to succeed. Military defeats,
changes in power relations or the threat of a deadline may convince the disputants that
mediation is the best way out of a worsening situation. Linked to the concept of conflict
ripeness is a process of ‗softening up‘ by the disputants, that is to say that parties have
shifted from intransigence to willingness. This process can follow the introduction of
contextual conflict factors which are more amenable to settlement, or the successful
application of appropriate strategies by the mediator (Greig and Diehl, 2006). The
softening up of the parties on its own however, is an insufficient condition for ripening of
willingness of the mediator itself to mediate. In our data, ‗timing‘ refers to the mediator‘s
point of entry into the conflict, namely during an escalatory phase (coded 1-4, 4
17
indicating the highest level of escalation) or de-escalatory phase (coded -1 to -4, -4
Hypothesis A3: Mediations that occur during an escalatory phase in the conflict
cycle are more likely to be successful than those occurring during a de-escalatory
phase
As noted above, the mediator may assume numerous behaviours, roles and functions
during the mediation process. Wall alone identifies more than a hundred specific
mediator traits (Wall, 1981), while Stulberg (1987) provides a more modest list of nine
typologies of mediator roles and strategies (Zartman and Touval, 1985). Whatever the
method used to evaluate these qualities, it is generally understood that the mediator‘s
power (leverage) and perceived impartiality are of utmost relevance to its chances of
success. The vast majority of definitions of mediation include either the mediator‘s active
use of leverage, or its perceived impartiality on the disputed issue. Furthermore, power
leverage, while power deriving from other sources may lessen the need for impartiality
(Smith, 1994). Finally, there is some agreement in the literature that the mediator‘s status
its intended direction (Zartman and Touval, 1996: 455). However by its voluntary, non-
binding and non-violent nature, the mediation process ensures that the ultimate power lies
with the disputants – they have the power to initiate the process, and they hold the right to
terminate it. Explicitly then, a first prerequisite for the initiation, let alone success, of any
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mediation effort is that the mediator is accepted by the disputing parties. Therefore the
ability to satisfy the expectations of both parties through the use of various mediation
techniques and strategies is paramount. The more powerful the mediator is, the more
resources it can employ to change the disputants‘ attitudes and perceptions. The literature
also suggests that powerful mediators who use active strategies and enjoy a wide range of
resources are more effective at managing intense conflicts, whereas mediators with lower
profile who offer more passive engagement and have limited access to resources can do
better at managing less intractable conflicts (Bercovitch and Gartner, 2006). Whilst some
see the use of manipulative strategies as sitting outside the spectrum of mediation (Kydd,
accepted and even expected by the disputants, especially when the third party is a major
power with an interest in the conflict. Moreover, even manipulative mediators often
engage with some sort of consultation and facilitation, and as such their activities should
be viewed across a wide spectrum of options rather than dichotomously (Schrodt and
Gerner, 2004). Great powers can be particularly effective in mediating conflicts, as they
are ‗uniquely positioned to manipulate the bargaining range in a way that ensures both
disputants can be reasonably satisfied with the outcome‘ (Favretto, 2009: 259). On the
other hand, Quinn and his colleagues find that power as an independent variable has little
effect on the successful outcome of mediated crises, but rather acts indirectly through the
identity and status of the mediator (Quinn et. al., 2006). In any case, as mediation is a
voluntary and non-violent process, the use of force by such powers – for example by
joining sides with one of the disputants as means to bring about a settlement – needs then
to be analysed as a more coercive form of third party intervention. While the advantages
19
of a powerful mediator who maintains leverage in the disputed issue are evident, this is
not to suggest that less powerful mediators cannot be successful. Power is essential only
to powerful mediators; less powerful mediators such as individuals or NGOs cannot offer
the disputants material incentives or to deprive them of certain resources, but their
perceived impartiality on the disputed issue is the decisive factor that makes them
In considering the power of the mediator, we assess how much leverage over the
disputants the mediator had coming into the process. In cases where mediators are
principally associated with a particular national government then it is likely that the
mediator may have more power over one disputant and not the other, for example. Our
variable seeks to examine the extent to which this discrepancy is important. Accordingly,
we distinguish mediators in terms of possessing power over all disputants, over Israel
Hypothesis B1: Mediations where the mediator has leverage over all the
disputants are more likely to be successful than those where the mediator has
leverage over some of the disputants or none of the disputants
(or bias) is a matter of perception, rather than reality. Whereas some studies argue that
mediation, by definition, requires the mediator to be impartial (Burton & Dukes, 1990;
Skjelsbaek, 1991), others maintain that impartiality is not a necessary prerequisite for
successful mediation and in some cases can even get in the way (Touval, 1982;
Bercovitch, 1986; Princen, 1992; Savun, 2008). Smith and Stam (2003) find that biased
mediators (defined as biased towards war, peace, or one of the disputants) cannot relay
information effectively to the warring parties and are not perceived as honest brokers,
20
whereas Kydd (2003) finds that biased mediators can perform this task effectively.
Rauchhaus (2006), however, contends that both biased mediators and impartial mediators
are expected to serve as effective mediators, though impartial mediators are expected to
perform their task better. Whereas the vast majority of mediation studies tend to treat bias
dichotomously – the mediator is either biased or not towards the conflict and/or the
disputants, Savun (2008) makes the important distinction between a mediator‘s absolute
and relative bias, the latter is derived from the mediator‘s relationship with one disputant
in relative terms to its history or relations with the other disputant. In our study we go one
step further and treat bias as a continuous variable, as it is conceivable that on some
issues the mediator‘s attitudes may change over time or indeed when multi-party
exhibited. As noted earlier, the mediator‘s tasks of eliciting information and exercising
influence are often best achieved not when a mediator is impartial, but when it possesses
certain resources that are valued by the disputants (Zartman and Touval, 1985). Perceived
impartiality is thus more crucial in the cases of less powerful mediators. Their mandate to
mediate rests upon the assumption – and expectation – that they will not favour one party
during the process. Conversely, in cases where the mediator is more powerful,
characteristic for power mediators is their power, not their impartiality‘ (1994: 447).
To measure bias, we contend that a biased mediator is one who has closer ties with
one party than the other and the greater the discrepancy in its relations with the parties,
the greater the bias. We measure this variable using a scale of 0-100, with 100 being
maximum discrepancy.
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Hypothesis B2: Mediations where the mediator has a perceived bias towards one
of the disputants is more likely to be successful than those where the mediator is
perceived to be unbiased towards all the disputants
Finally, the status of the mediator may have a considerable impact on the process and the
chances of success. The status of the mediator includes important issues such as
knowledge of the conflict and understanding of its political and historical roots; expertise
in negotiation; the formal rank of the individual mediator in his or her home state or
organisation; and the credibility which derives from these factors (Pruitt, 2002; Svensson,
2009). At least implicitly, mediator‘s high status is linked to issues of credibility and
trust, and thus has bearing not only on the disputants‘ decision to accept the mediator in
the first place, but also on their incentives to cooperate with the mediator (Kleiboer,
key facets of status: experience and positional status rank. By experience, we mean the
years of diplomatic experience a mediator has and the number of mediations a mediator
has been involved in. In the AIC it is safe to assume that the office of the president of the
United States garners the highest status rank irrespective of previous diplomatic
experience or mediation expertise. For example Bill Clinton would receive a positional
status rank score higher than that of Dennis Ross, his special envoy, even though Ross
had considerably more experience in dealing with the Israelis and Palestinians. We will
score status on a scale of 0 – 100, with 100 representing maximum status (US
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Hypothesis B3a: Mediations where the mediator has a high status rank are more
likely to be successful than those where the mediator has a lower status rank
Hypothesis B3b: Mediations where the mediator/ mediation team has a high level
experience are more likely to be successful than those where the mediator/
mediation team has limited experience
What strategies are available to the mediator? Should the objectives of mediation be
limited to specific issues which are relatively easy to negotiate, or be ambitious and
comprehensive in order to tackle the root causes of the conflict? Can we expect secret
negotiations to be more effective than a process conducted in front of the watchful eyes
of the public and the media? Evidently these are important issues, and scholars of
mediation are split over the significance of these variables to a successful outcome.
thus powerful mediators enjoy a wider arsenal of strategies and tactics than weak
mediation is useful here. The first refers to the ‗social power that relates to the resources
and relationships that the mediator brings to the conflict‘ (p. 28), whereas the latter
‗refers to what the mediator does at the negotiating table; this involves adroit
manoeuvring, technique, and procedure. (2002, p. 30). We argue that a mediator who is
more strategically equipped will also have more tactical manoeuvrability at the
strategies which in essence offer similar insights into the strategic choices mediators face
at various stages of the process. Perhaps the most widely used typology is the one offered
by Zartman and Touval (1985), who suggest three discrete strategies of mediation: a)
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communication-facilitation, b) formulation, c) manipulation. As the mediator offers the
parties something they cannot achieve themselves, each strategy aims to overcome a
communication and carrying messages. Formulation strategies invite a more active role
for the mediator in putting forward its own ideas and drafting parameters for reference.
Lastly, the manipulative mediator may change the bargaining process by offering or
denying the disputants certain incentives. However the risk here is that by its sheer power
to push the disputants towards a settlement, the mediator becomes a party to the solution,
or even to the conflict itself. As Kleiboer correctly observes, the distinction between
communicator and formulator is more notional than real, as these roles may overlap
(1996: 375). Beardsley et al (2006) find that the use of a manipulative strategy by the
mediator is more likely to result in a formal agreement, and we build on this assumption
mediation events, to see if a dominant strategy (or the absence of a particular strategy) is
significant. This latter point indicates that not all three strategies will necessarily be used
at every mediation event. Second, in what we term the chess test, we propose that the
opening strategy of the mediator might have a significant effect on the outcome. Finally,
it is likely that mediators alternate between strategies throughout the mediation process,
24
Hypothesis C1b: The opening mediation strategy will be significant as to the
likelihood of achieving success
process. According to Bercovitch (2002) the three underlying objectives of the mediator
include the changing of the physical environment, the changing of perceptions on both
sides of what is at stake, and the changing of the disputants‘ motivation to reach a
strategies of mediation, as these objectives entail issues such as secrecy, agenda setting,
mediator must have the capacity and willpower to actively manipulate the disputants and
to restructure the dynamics of the bargaining process. In practical terms, the mediator
may opt for a comprehensive settlement, or pursue a more limited objective upon
initiating the mediation process. Although both types of strategies can be applied to
strategies are used, or whether manipulative strategies are more effective in this instance.
In their study of mediation in the Middle East, Stein and Lewis suggest that
‗comprehensive approaches to mediating this conflict have ultimately failed‘ (1996: 471).
peace treaty which officially ends the state of hostility between Israel and the Arab world,
25
Hypothesis C2: Mediations where the objectives are limited are more likely to be
successful than those where the objectives are comprehensive.
Finally, the complex nature of the mediation process and the disputants‘ desire to save
face may call for secrecy, or ‗sidebar‘ negotiations (Rubin, Pruitt and Kim 1994: 188-
189). Secret or private negotiations offer the mediator and the disputants greater
manoeuvrability and in the event of failure, the option of deniability. However this is not
to suggest that secret negotiations are necessarily more effective than public ones.
According to Zartman and Berman, the answer is somewhere in the middle: ―‘Too great‘
publicity for the negotiations is inefficient, for it draws negotiators to the windows to
address the public rather than each other, and makes for inflexible positions‖, whereas
―‘too little‘ publicity is considered undemocratic, may lead to shady deals, and in the end
is probably inefficient too, since at some point in the process of ratification the press and
other media will comment on the agreement and bring it under scrutiny‖ (1982: 215-
216). The unavoidable conclusion, then, is that ‘the argument in favour of secrecy in
negotiation is right, even if that does not make the argument in favour of informing the
Hypothesis C3: Mediations where the process is secret are more likely to be
successful than those which are public knowledge.
An inspection of the Pearson correlations in Table 1 reveals that six variables have a
correlation with mediation outcome ranging from strong in strength (significant at the
0.01 level) to modest in strength (significant at the 0.10 level). In order, beginning with
26
B3 Main Mediator Status; C2 Objectives of mediation; B1 Mediator Power coming into
* Significant at a .10 level; ** Significant at a .05 level; *** Significant at a .01 level
Pictorially, we can see a fairly tight fit between the mediation outcome, strategy of
manipulation and main mediator status in Chart 1 and again a reasonably tight fit between
there is initial support for at least one hypothesis in each of our categories. In the
contextual category there is initial support for Hypothesis A1 (nature of the conflict), as it
is abundantly clear that none of the ‗core‘ issues of the AIC is, statistically speaking,
category there is initial support for Hypothesis B1 (mediator power coming into the
mediation) and B3a (status rank of the main mediator). In the procedural category there is
27
initial support for C1a (mediator employment of a manipulative strategy), C1b (opening
28
We begin our OLS regression analysis by testing all six of our statistically significant
factors identified above. We find that the two most significant independent variables in
our correlation analysis – strategy of manipulation and forces redeployment - remain the
most important variables within the multiple regression analysis, and are joined by the
three variables (Regression Model 1, see Table 2) is statistically significant. The value of
adjusted R² in this model is 0.459, which tells us that the overall model accounts for 45.9
per cent of the variation in mediation outcome. The model‘s F-ratio is 7.501, which is
significant at p < 0.001. The F-ratio is a measure of how much our model has improved
the prediction of the outcome compared to the level of inaccuracy in the model. If a
model is good, then we expect the improvement in the prediction to be large and the
difference between the model and the observed data to be small. A good model should
have a large F-ratio (greater than one at least). Our result tells us that there is less than a
0.1% chance that an F-ratio this large would happen by chance alone. Therefore, we can
conclude that the regression model results in a significantly better prediction of mediation
outcome than if we used the mean value of mediation outcome. Succinctly, the overall
The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tells us whether the overall model is a good
predictor of the dependent variable, but cannot tell us about the individual contribution of
independent variables in the model. For this we turn to the standardised Beta scores in
the most significant individual independent variable (standardised beta score 0.411**).
This confirms Hypothesis C1a which contends that mediations which involve a
29
manipulative strategy are more likely to be successful than those where other strategies
are used.
The presence of this issue, but not any of the AIC core issues – Jerusalem, borders,
settlements and refugees – gives support to the claim that greater success in mediation is
more likely when the parties are dealing with issues perceived as being ‗softer‘. The
From this we are now in position to formulate the least squares regression model in terms
of an equation. The equation is derived whereby each independent variable has its own
co-efficient, and the dependent variable has its own co-efficient. The dependent variable
is then predicted from a combination of all the variables multiplied by their respective
coefficients plus a residual term, where Y is the dependent variable, β1 is the coefficient
30
of the first independent variable (X1), β2 is the coefficient of the of the second
independent variable (X2), βn is the coefficient of the of the nth independent variable
(Xn) and εi is the difference between the predicted and observed value of Y for the ith
subject.
Table 2 indicates that the constant (β0) is -0.430, which is the Y intercept. Therefore our
equation for the regression model is:
Hypothesis C2: Mediations where the objectives are limited are more likely to be
successful than those where the objectives are comprehensive.
Perhaps the one slightly surprising result of the multiple regression analysis is the
indicated statistical significance at the 0.05 level. Undoubtedly, this is due to the issue of
31
multicollinearity, which increases the probability that a good predictor of the dependent
variable is found to be non-significant and rejected from the model (a type II error). As is
It is likely that the variance accounted for by main mediator status is, to a considerable
degree, the same variance that is accounted for by manipulative strategy. This is a logical
deduction, given that it is clear from Chart 2 that in all cases where a strategy of
per cent, and in all but one of those cases the main mediator status is ranked at a
minimum of 75 per cent. It is clear, too, that causation in this case is one-way. That is to
say, it is high status ranking mediators who possess the capacity to employ a
manipulative strategy when they deem necessary; it is not the strategy of manipulation
32
that results in mediators having a high status rank. In all seven cases where we have
comprising B3 Main Mediator Status and C1 Strategy of Manipulation to capture the fact
that the higher the status rank of the mediator the greater the probability they will employ
analysis indicates that there is a statistical association with our dependent variable
When running an OLS regression analysis using the other statistically significant
significant. The value of adjusted R² is 0.439, meaning that the overall model accounts
for 43.9 per cent of the variation in mediation outcome. The model‘s F-ratio is 6.994,
which is significant at p < 0.001. So once again we can conclude that Regression Model 2
results in a significantly better prediction of mediation outcome than if we used the mean
value of mediation outcome. An examination of the Beta scores in Table 4 reveals that
beta score 0.383**). This indicates that the higher positional status rank of the main
mediator the higher the likelihood they will employ a strategy of manipulation and the
33
clearly linked with limited objectives, which again confirms support for Hypothesis C2.
as Regression Model 1, and explains less of the variance of mediation outcome than
Regression Model 1.
Conclusion
The most important finding from our bivariate correlation analysis and the various
multiple regression models is that successful mediation outcomes are more probable
when mediators are able to employ a strategy of manipulation, thus supporting the
findings in previous studies (Beardsley et. al. 2006). Our claim that a strategy of
34
manipulation is more likely to be employed if the main mediator is of higher status rank
is also borne out by the statistical analysis. More pertinently to current efforts at
mediating Israeli-Palestinian peace, we found significant support for the claim that
mediations addressing the core issues of the conflict (Jerusalem, borders, refugees and
settlements) are less likely to be successful than those addressing issues perceived as
‗softer‘ by the parties. Similarly, our finding that mediation success is evidently
(failed) efforts at ending the conflict via comprehensive plans, such as the 2002 Arab
League initiative.
These important findings notwithstanding, there remains the caveat that due to the
relatively small number of cases that exist in this conflict, identifying potential
validity of some of our hypotheses in the face of the idiosyncratic nature of mediation
over six decades of conflict between several actors and numerous mediators, we
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