Th e

Future S e a r c h
Bulletin of the Institute of Economic Affairs. Issue 7, November 2007

A Critique of Vision 2030! Inside this issue:

The Vision at a glance 2
As the country prepares for its 10th general elections on 27th December 2007, the three Structural and tactical weaknesses 3
emergent presidential candidates have released their presidential visions with an effort to
The vision details: the good, the bad & 4
articulate the country's development priorities, as they view them. The political party’s that the Impractical
they ascribe to have also released their party manifesto’s detailing the policy proposals the Conclusion 8
party will pursue should they ascend to power.

It is important to note that a vision document and a party manifesto are inherently The IEA is a civic forum which seeks to
different. The former usually is a personalized inspirational statement that highlights the promote pluralism of ideas through
main hinges on which policy should turn, guided by a candidate’s values and world view. open, active and informed debate on
However, vision 2030 being a presidential directive, has benefited from state machinery i.e. public policy issues. The IEA is
financial, human, technical etc and therefore has an edge over the others. Whereas the independent of political parties,
pressure groups and lobbies, or any
nature of vision 2030 is such that it would provide a framework for post ERSWEC—
other partisan interests.
Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation and is thus referred to
as a country vision that is detached from any political party, IEA-Kenya in this bulletin Written by:
would like to affiliate it to Hon. Mwai Kibaki. We argue that were he to win elections, his Wallace Kantai
government would use vision 2030 as the basis for long term planning and policy strategy
Edited by:
for the future of the country. The fact that the opposition was not involved reinforces the Katindi Sivi and Kwame Owino
fact that only a Kibaki presidency would adopt and implement the proposals provided
therein. Published by:
Institute of Economic Affairs,
A party manifesto on the other hand takes an institutional form, outlines prospective Futures Programme
5th floor, ACK Garden House
legislation and details the strategic direction the winning party will take should they win
P.O Box 53989,00200
sufficient support in an election to serve in government. Despite these differences, one,
Nairobi Kenya
usually the vision should inform the other i.e. the manifesto. The tragedy in Africa’s
Tel: 2721262, 2717402 Fax: 2716231
leadership however is that vision statements are usually substituted for platitudes. Winning
E-mail: admin@ieakenya.or.ke
parties also have a tendency to either ignore, indefinitely delay, or even outrightly reject Web page: www.ieakenya.or.ke
manifesto policies which were popular with the public before elections. Instead personal
idiosyncrasies, biases, and preferences of the leader have tended to become significantly Chief Executive: Margaret Chemengich
more important. Board of Directors: Ms. Betty Maina
(Chairperson), Mr. Evans Osano, Mr.
It is from the foregoing that IEA-Kenya has found it necessary to interrogate vision 2030 by; Duncan Okello, Ms. Caroline Kigen, Ms.
undertaking a SWOT analysis of the vision document to identify the underlying Muthoni Wanyeki, Mr. Gerald Macharia,
assumptions and comment on their legitimacy/whether they are factual; analyze the vision’s Mr. John Kashangaki
relevance to the current state of Kenya and to the emerging trends; review the applicability
of the vision/ implementation strategy i.e. whether practical, sustainable as well as review
Page 2 The Future Search
policy and financing concerns and strategies. The analysis also assesses whether the vision document informs the party
manifesto or whether there are any interlinkages or contradictions. It is envisaged that the work will enable Kenyans better
understand vision 2030 and PNU’s strategy. The work will also raise critical questions that the party and the candidate
should consider reviewing.

THE VISION AT A GLANCE

Overarching vision
A globally competitive and prosperous
nation with a high quality of life by 2030
Vision

Strategy
Social
Economic Political
A just and cohesive
To maintain a sus- An issue-based, people-
society enjoying equita-
tained economic centered, result-
ble social development
Plans and growth of 10% p.a. oriented, and account-
in a clean and secure
implementation over the next 25 years able democratic politi-
environment
cal system

Source: NESC, 2007

The Kenyan Government decided, through its National Eco- billion +)

nomic and Social Council (NESC), to come up with Vision
2030, a guiding template for the country’s development over
the next two and a half decades.
The work towards Vision 2030 commenced on October 30th,
2006, and was launched by President Mwai Kibaki on May
28th, 2007. According to the President, the Vision was devel-
oped ‘in order to build on the momentum of growth… so far
achieved following our implementation of the Economic Re-
covery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation’.
The Vision is meant to ensure that the momentum in growth
achieved since 2003 is sustained and built upon, to ensure
that the targeted sustained growth rate of 10% annually is
achieved. Its express aim is to catapult the country to a middle
income status by 2030.
In the documents available, vision 2030 outlines the main
pillars as Economic, Social and political pillars.
Priorities in the economic pillar include;
1. Tourism
• One of Kenya’s major economic pillars, enjoying signifi-
cant growth (13% p.a.) over past few years
• Largest contributor to foreign exchange earnings (US$1
• Is far underdeveloped compared to other top tourist
destinations (e.g., number of tourists, yield, diversity of
experience, etc)
2. Agriculture
• Pillar of the Kenyan economy (25% of GDP)
• Productivity significantly lower (e.g. 2-3 x lower) than
international benchmarks
• Values addition opportunities to unlock potential of
Kenyan land
• Strong need for institutional reform
3. Wholesale and retail
• Sizeable part of the economy (e.g., 30% of GDP and
50% of employment – formal and informal)
• Extremely fragmented and informal (e.g., 97% of em-
ployment, 70% of value is informal)
• Very inefficient supply chain
• Significant opportunity to formalise the sector
4. Manufacturing
• Stagnant at 10% of GDP over past 30 years
• Sector currently uncompetitive, e.g., expensive energy,
heavy regulation, disjointed taxation
• Sizeable opportunity, in particular in domestic and re-
gional markets
• Potential to develop global niches (e.g., agro-processed
goods)
Issue 7 Page 3

5. Business Processing Off-shoring (BPO) and hazardous waste)

• Small and nascent industry today (e.g., <1 000 seats to-
tal)
• Overall, cost competitive relative to other attractive des-
tinations
• However, key areas for improvement, e.g., telecom/ en-
ergy cost and reliability, training)
• Significant niche opportunity for Kenya
6. Financial services
• Plays a critical enabling role in the economy
• Has experienced significant growth over past few years
(e.g., 50%+ per annum growth of NSE)
• Still ample room for further development across all ar-
eas – Capital markets, Banking, Informal finance, and
International capital
Priorities for the social pillar include;
1. Education
• Access, quality, equity, relevance, institutional manage-
ment and capacity development
2. Health
• Access, equity ,quality, capacity and institutional frame-
work
3. Water and sanitation
• Water resource management, water storage and harvest-
ing, water supply, sanitation, irrigation and drainage
4. Environment
• Unsustainable management of natural resources (forests,
wildlife, coastal marines
• Degradation of the environment (air pollution, solid
• Climate change and desertification
• Inability to identify and develop strategic natural re-
sources (low innovative and exploration initiatives and
capacities
5. Gender, Youth and Vulnerable groups
• Opportunity and empowerment, capabilities, vulnerabili-
ties
6. Housing and urbanization
• Demand and supply, quality, legal and administrative
issues, financing, serviced land / infrastructure, planning
and management
Priorities for the political pillar include;
1. Political governance
• Adherence to the rule of law applicable to a modern,
market-based economy in a human rights-respecting state
• Genuinely competitive and issue-based politics
• People-centred and politically-engaged open society
• Transparent, accountable, ethical and results-oriented
government institutions
• Policy-driven and service-focused government institutions
• Security of all persons and property throughout the Re-
public
Vison 2030 is referred to as a massive transformational pro-
gramme that requires fundamental transformation to busi-
ness “unusual”, an independent delivery agency that drives
implementation along with other key functions, top talent, a
special budget and key pieces of legislation.

The reasoning behind launching the Vision, and the targets set, is partly an acknowledgement that Kenya has lost four
decades of growth. The oft-touted maxim is that Kenya and Malaysia were at a similar stage of development in the mid-
1960s. Prof. Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o has also stated that Malaysia’s administrators – the ones who guided the country to
its current state of development – were actually trained at Nairobi’s Kenya Institute of Administration. There is also an
implicit emphasis that Kenya can and should be a middle income country, if only we harnessed our true potential. After
Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist, proclaimed Kenya a nascent African ‘Tiger’, reminiscent of the
Asian Tiger successes, we got so caught up in the adulation that our national discussion for a while became what the
geographically appropriate appellation was for us – whether to be an African ‘Lion’ or other powerful big cat.

STRUCTURAL AND TACTICAL WEAKNESSES

The Vision is predicated on economic development underpinning national development, and the Vision document reveals
its first problem. It states that Kenya’s GDP growth rate as at 2002, ‘was at 0.6%’, and thus celebrates the fact that it ‘rose to
6.1%’ in 2006. Over the past four years, commentators, economists and the general public have been obsessed with economic
growth rates, as opposed to absolute numbers. This is an understandable phenomenon, as it is an easily digestible number.
However, the language of the Vision document, as well as its emphasis, seems to suggest that a growth rate is an end unto
itself. It also suggests that the document writers cannot distinguish between a growth rate, which is simply a comparative fig-
ure between one year and the next, and the actual size of the economy, which is an absolute number.

There are three tactical, as opposed to content, weaknesses inherent in the Vision.
Page 4
1. Is the Vision transition-proof?
Vision 2030 was launched in an election year, which is why it
is strange that it is deficient in its strategy for ensuring longev-
ity beyond the current political set-up. Whereas no political
party or head of state likes to contemplate their electoral de-
feat, a self-proclaimed long-term blueprint should have been
made ‘transition-proof’. This may have meant that the politi-
cal opposition would be co-opted in the formulation of the
Vision, ensuring ‘buy-in’ and ownership. Admittedly, this is a
difficult undertaking in a poisoned political atmosphere, but
the effort would have meant that the Vision would survive
political transitions.
There are two causes of this problem. First is the situation in
Kenya. Any long-term thinking has been filtered through the
prism of constitution making, which has been irreversibly
polarised. Hardline positions, which were set in stone at the
2005 Constitutional Referendum, meant that any long term
plans proposed by one side of the political divide were of
necessity received with suspicion, and the Vision is no differ-
ent.
Secondly, the countries which we seem to be seeking to emu-
late, such as the Southeast Asian countries, went for long
periods of rule under autocratic governments. Malaysia, our
benchmark country, has been ruled by the same party, the
United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) for decades
and into the foreseeable future. Political consensus under
such a system is easy enough to achieve, unlike in a raucous,
active democracy such as ours.
There is a silver lining in this particular cloud, however. At
the time of this review, political campaigns are in full swing,
and all three leading Presidential contenders, President Ki-
baki, Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka, and Hon. Raila Odinga, are
making all the right statements with regard to their intent for
the economy. If anything, they are castigating the current
government for not being ambitious enough, and for con-
gratulating itself on growth rates that are much too low to
ensure that this rising tide lifts all boats. The opposition
presidential candidates are also using social equity issues as a
stick to pummel the government with. They emphasise that
obsession with growth numbers should not obscure the fact
that social equity is just as desirable an outcome of growth.
The Vision proclaims one of its aims as building ‘a just and
cohesive society with social equity in a clean and secure envi-
ronment’. All the candidates seem to be saying the same
THE VISION DETAILS:
THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE IMPRACTICAL
Issue 7
thing.
2. Are we aiming at a moving target?
Again, there are two elements to this. We are aiming at be-
ing a medium income nation by the Vision’s end-date,
which is 2030, and we have proclaimed sustained 10% eco-
nomic growth as being the strategy that will get us there.
However, middle income status is a comparative measure,
and there is no intrinsic guarantee that growing at our
aimed rate will get us there. We may overshoot the target,
especially if global growth slows and we become one of the
fastest growing economies in the world. This would, obvi-
ously, be a good thing. However, we may undershoot the
target, if our competing peers outgrow us. We may find our-
selves running faster and faster just to keep the same posi-
tion on the treadmill.
The second element is perhaps more serious. Whether it is
fair or not, a certain consensus is congealing globally that
perhaps unrestrained growth is not an unreservedly positive
thing. There seems to be a movement that is proclaiming
that the growth mantra has led to potential environmental
and climatic calamity. As more and more people, especially
in the developing world, reach for the brass ring of a middle
class lifestyle, with a car, a washing machine, refrigerator
and television set, the world gets closer and closer to its car-
rying capacity. While most of this opprobrium is directed at
China and India, with its billions of people, we may get
caught up in the undertow of the movement, and 10%
growth may become as unacceptable as a new coal power
plant.
3. The selling process has been deficient
A vision of this scope and this ambition needs ownership by
the entire country, and needs to be incorporated in individ-
ual and corporate planning. However, the selling process of
the Vision has not been up to scratch. A certain proportion
of the general public may have heard of the Vision, in its
relation to certain projects, or as espoused from political
pulpits. This process, though, is nowhere near adequate to
ensure public approval, and public ownership. A good start
could be a branding exercise. The flagship projects proposed
under the Vision, some of which have already kicked off,
would serve as excellent billboards for the Vision, ensuring
that Kenyans knew what the Vision was all about and what
it was trying to achieve.
A concentrated public relations exercise should be under-
taken, throughout the life of the Vision to ensure success.
Issue 7
Vision 2030 aims at ‘making Kenya a newly industrialising,
middle income country providing high quality life for all its
citizens by the year 2030’.
The Vision rests on three pillars: The economic pillar that
aims at sustained 10% economic growth to deliver an econ-
omy that can maintain its citizens at a comfortable standard
of living. The social pillar aims at a cohesive, peaceful society
that can sustain itself environmentally. The political pillar
pursues a mature political system – one that ensures the pro-
tection of rights and freedoms of individuals within Kenyan
society.
The Vision statements, as well as some of its details, seem
simple and practical enough to be implementable. The em-
phasis on short and medium term goals ensures that there
can be little complacency in trying to accomplish the Vision.
International Risk Factors
One crucial element the Vision seems to lack, however, is
cognisance of certain global factors. We have already made
reference to possible global sentiment militating against unre-
strained growth. Others include:
Climate Change and its Effects
The biggest issue that will face us in coming years will be cli-
mate change. Kenya, unfortunately, lies in a very vulnerable
climatic zone. Even at present, 84% of the country’s land is
composed of arid and semi arid land. Climate change has
been projected to further dry out the country, with deleteri-
ous effect.
Firstly, agriculture, which is one of the key sectors of the
economy, will be deeply affected, with a change in growing
seasons, and likely drops in yields. Unless we drastically
change the forms of agriculture we undertake, away from
unskilled, low level, small scale subsistence agriculture, to
more mechanised and irrigated farming, the system will be
unable to cope. This would obviously not only negatively
affect value increase in agriculture, which is a stated aim of
the Vision, but also drastically affect food security, which is a
crucial component of any social security aim of the country.
Secondly, increasing aridity brought about by climate change
could mean increased conflict, both within the country and
involving neighbouring countries, which are more climati-
cally vulnerable than ours. As it is now, there have been
clashes in the country’s northern regions over water, which is
a manifestation of the vulnerability of the whole region.
The drying out of Lake Victoria, due to both climatic and
human use causes, should be emphasised and mitigated
against. The lake is too important for both economic and
social reasons to be ignored.
Page 5
Tourism could also be affected. The Maasai Mara, which is
Kenya’s chief tourist draw, is already showing signs of cli-
matic stress, including the drying of rainy seasons and change
in weather patters. Most of Kenya’s tourist attractions are
composed of very intricate ecosystems that can and will get
upset by the imminent change in climatic patterns.
Energy Costs
Kenya is a net petroleum energy importer, and thus vulner-
able to changes in international energy costs. As an illustra-
tion, the oil price between 2006 and 2007 has increased by
well over 50% in nominal terms, and the Kenyan economy
will absorb this entire cost. There is no reason, however, for
this to be the case. Kenya had a thriving alternative fuel in-
dustry in the 1970s and 1980s (those of a certain age will
remember filling up with ‘gasohol’). We can reclaim this
lead. We should also not be afraid of pursuing technologies
such as nuclear power (South Africa is a global leader in re-
search into pebble bed nuclear power plants). Geothermal
energy, coal-to-oil, wind and solar power can also be national
winners. Setting up wind and solar farms in the otherwise
desolate north could solve our energy needs as well as mak-
ing us global leaders in this kind of energy research.
The Economic Pillar
The individual elements of the economic pillar are also partly
commendable, and partly susceptible to certain structural
and conceptual weaknesses.
Tourism
The Vision and its accompanying strategies acknowledge the
need to increase tourist numbers, as well as to alter our tour-
ist offerings. It is evident that Kenya has been relying on a
product that is losing its sheen. Our attraction continues to
be based on beach and bush safaris attracting long-haul tour-
ists from Western Europe. However, our competing destina-
tions, principally South Africa, have diversified their product
to include the shopping experience, sports and business tour-
ism. They are also aggressively marketing their product to
visitors from closer home. We have all been exposed to mes-
sages about visiting South Africa for the shopping experi-
ence. Many Kenyans who have been to South Africa have
probably been there primarily for business reasons, especially
conferences. While we shouldn’t be aiming at direct competi-
tion for this market, there is something to be said for diversi-
fying our offering. Attracting sports tourism, especially
around events such as the rugby Safari Sevens tournament,
the Nairobi Marathon, and cricket tours (which would open
us to the increasingly lucrative Asian markets), would go a
long way in helping us reach our numbers. The football
World Cup, which is taking place ‘down the road’ in South
Africa, can also be used as a key marketing vehicle.
Page 6
The idea of home stay sites should be upgraded to include the
incorporation of bed-and-breakfasts, which offer a different
experience from the more industrial-feeling chain hotels. This
is a concept that is very successful in other markets.
Trade
Kenyans are inveterate traders. Stories are legion of people
hopping onto planes to Dubai and other destinations to pick
up trinkets to sell in exhibition stalls. The Vision acknowl-
edges this, and speaks of ‘bringing Dubai to Kenya’, which is
key in attracting the trade dollars of Africans. While we love to
trade, we do not hold a candle to West Africans, who fill up
entire planeloads on shopping expeditions. There is no reason
why they should not have Mombasa as their destination.
Formalisation of the retail chain should also include the crea-
tion of fresh produce markets, which would maintain our ac-
cess to our enviable quality of fresh produce, but will also in-
crease profits to producers.
Business Process Outsourcing
Again, this is a good idea, which seeks to diversify our econ-
omy. The BPO wave has washed over countries like India to
great profit. We are seeking a piece of this growing pie, and we
want to take advantage of our education, English skills and
time zone advantages.
Again, though, we need to take notice of our potential com-
petitors, who are making similar moves. Countries such as
Ghana offer just about the same advantages we do, and we
need to differentiate ourselves to mitigate against this kind of
competition. For example, we have a growing pool of skilled
computer programmers, which other African countries lack.
This could form part of our competitive advantage, instead of
our just concentrating on the call centre business.
Increasing the Savings Rate
This is a central tenet of the Vision, primarily because of its
impact on investment. The more savings can be encouraged –
from the current rate of 17% to at least 30% – the more funds
can be freed up for investment. What is not acknowledged,
however, is that part of the reason savings rates are so low is
the absence of formalised social security systems. Education,
health and emergencies for most Kenyans tend to be financed
directly from the pocket, which means that Kenyans save less
and less. The Vision acknowledges that there needs to be a
National Health Insurance Scheme, which will mean that
more people access health without resorting to private funds.
There may be a need for establishment of more social security
systems, including some form of unemployment insurance
(whether through the private or public sectors).
Education and Training
This is, and will continue to be, a huge part of the country’s
Issue 7
budget and public policy. Education ensures that any gains
we aim at will be maintained.
The Vision aims at providing globally competitive quality
education, training and research and development. It is
obvious that an insular education system does little good in
preparing the country’s workers to be globally competitive.
However, there are elements in the education component
that seem not to have been thought of:
First, where is the acknowledgement that education plays a
central role in fostering national culture, as well as national
identity? Some people claim that as we allow foreign educa-
tion systems to proliferate at primary and secondary levels,
we lose the opportunity to foster a national identity and
cultures. There is an increasing number of schoolchildren
who do not encounter elements of our national identity at
any stage of their schooling, meaning that any cohesiveness
we espouse as a national aim will simply be lost.
Second, there is need to acknowledge that the free market
in education that currently exists is detrimental to our na-
tional aims. Especially at tertiary level, institutions of dubi-
ous provenance and quality proliferate, offering courses
that have little purpose in our economy. Students spend
cumulative millions earning worthless certificates, and so
both lose time spent in these ‘colleges’ and ensure that they
cannot gain employment on the basis of this training.
Unless these are brought to heel, and fast, we will continue
losing money, and students will continue to waste time.
There is a need to incorporate higher level adult education
in the Vision. This is not the traditional ‘ngumbaru’ educa-
tion, which seeks to impart literacy and numeracy skills.
Higher level ICT skills are important for a growing, chang-
ing economy, and these skills need to be acquired, con-
stantly, at all stages in life. A national programme for im-
parting these skills should be incorporated into the Vision.
Additionally, the deep thirst for acquisition of university
education, as seen in overflowing enrolment rates in paral-
lel degree courses, should be incorporated into the vision.
Thankfully, university education is starting to be divorced
from age, and people are acquiring a university education at
all ages. This should be encouraged.
Fourth, a frank discussion needs to be undertaken about
the tradeoffs between increasing enrolment rates in educa-
tion and the need to provide a quality service. Equipment
shortages need to be catered for. It is useful to note that the
Vision foresees the hiring of 28,000 additional teachers,
which should help in improving quality as enrolment rates
go up.
Water and sanitation
The Vision acknowledges that we are a water-scarce coun-
 Issue 7
try, and proposes
several measures to mitigate this. There needs to be more,
however.
We can admit, without fear of contradiction, that informal
settlements will continue to be with us for some time. Cen-
tralised provision of water and sanitation services should
therefore be a key part of this element of the vision. Without
necessarily encouraging greater informality of urban settle-
ment patterns, it would not hurt to ensure access to clean
water and sanitation facilities, at reasonable cost, in these
areas.
The Environment
Despite the fact that we boast the world’s first environmental
activist to win the Nobel Peace Prize, in Wangari Maathai,
Kenya is a remarkably careless country, in how we treat our
environment. From deforestation, to water and air pollution,
we seem to care little for how we treat our country. The Vi-
sion sets out certain minimum standards to aim for, includ-
ing reforestation and improved waste management. More
needs to be done, however, and it needs to tie up several
other elements.
For example, Nakuru is one of Kenya’s most crowded, and
fastest growing, urban centres. It is right smack next to one of
Kenya’s most beautiful national parks – Lake Nakuru Na-
tional Park. It is obvious to even the least knowledgeable ob-
server that there is no way Nakuru can continue to grow at its
current rate without ensuring the continuing degradation of
Lake Nakuru. What is the trade-off, then? Do we curtail the
growth of the town, or do we continue to endanger the Lake
and the Park? The same thing can be seen on a smaller scale
in Nairobi, with the encroachment of animal migration corri-
dors around Nairobi National Park. How do we continue to
maintain these corridors without necessarily impacting
growth of the city and its environs? Athi River is slated as a
proposed cluster community (more on this later), which will
have extreme demands on the environment, including on
scarce water. How does this affect the nearby Park?
The plastic bags debate continues to rage at present, with
manufacturers pulling one way and environmentalists pulling
the other. The Vision seeks to limit production and usage of
these bags, yet seems to go about it in a rather ham-handed
way. Instead of outright bans, which merely enrich corrupt
municipal officers, monetary incentives can reduce the prob-
lem drastically. In countries such as South Africa, shoppers
pay a substantial premium for each plastic bag they opt to
have their purchases packed in. Something similar can be
tried in Kenya. If every shopper had to pay five shillings for
each plastic bag in Uchumi, Nakumatt or Tusky’s, the kiondo
would make a swift comeback, without ravenous City askaris
having to pester everyone about how they choose to pack
Page 7
their tomatoes.
Urban pollution brought about by inefficient vehicle en-
gines is also an issue of great import. The amount of exhaust
fumes we inhale in cities is getting to a point of endanger-
ment, and there is an increasing smog problem in Nairobi,
as evident on most days.
Housing and Urbanisation
A cluster community in Athi River, as proposed by the Vi-
sion, only exacerbates the crowding problem in Nairobi.
There is no reason why the cluster community cannot be
established further afield. With the right incentives, Nairobi
can be gradually emptied out, so that it closer approaches its
carrying capacity. Again, this is a matter of incorporating
several elements of the Vision, primarily the economic one.
As a brief example, if the government would offer free, high
speed broadband, as well as incentives such as greatly re-
duced electricity rates and social amenities in a town such
as, say, Malindi, data farms, BPO firms such as program-
ming companies, and the like, would all decamp or set up
there, with no reason to set up in Nairobi or its environs.
The idea to prepare metropolitan and investment plans for
Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu-Kakamega, Nakuru-Eldoret,
Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Mwingi, Kitui and Meru is an ad-
mirable one. There is no reason why Nairobi should be
headquarters of all kinds of industries, including those that
make little sense to be headquartered there. We also need to
acknowledge the deus ex machina inherent in Nairobi. 54%
of Kenya’s economy is centred in an urban area at the risk
of severe seismic activity. The earth tremors that shook the
city in the middle of 2007 are an indication that Nairobi
could be severely affected by an earthquake, and the econ-
omy would suffer greatly. Add to this the fact that the whole
of government, including the High Court and Parliament,
are headquartered in the city, as are diplomatic missions,
the Stock Exchange, all the major newspapers and media
houses, and the country’s only international-quality sports
stadia, and you can see the urgency of decentralising Kenya’s
urban set-up.
Sports
Unfortunately, the Vision continues to view sports as being
a social service (and sports still remains in the government
Ministry dealing with gender and social services). This is
despite the fact that sports continues to become an ever in-
creasing economic driver. To pick just two examples, Sam-
uel Eto’o, the Cameroonian footballer, is a one-man ma-
chine worth well over a billion shillings. He does not even
begin to approach Daisuke Matsuzaka, a Japanese pitcher in
the American Major League Baseball league, whose transfer
fees was a remarkable 103 million dollars (or in excess of
seven billion shillings). Our star athletes earn hundreds of
millions of shillings every year, and it is way past time that
Page 8
we stopped treating sports as a social activity, and incorpo-
rated it into our economic plans.
Gender and Youth
While it is all very good to acknowledge the need to have
greater representation of women in Parliament, and for both
women and youth to access funds for development, there
needs to be further appreciation of the fact that these social
roles are also a result of culture, and a culture change needs
to be instituted. How, for example, will the economy harness
the remarkable energy of the youth? Where are the plans to
encourage skills transfer and generational transitions at all
levels of society, including in business and politics? Where
are the incentives for political parties, for instance, to have
vibrant youth wings which will provide the country with its
next generation of political leadership?
Science, Technology and Innovation
We need to seek out where we have competitive advantage in
research, and pour funds and effort in propping these up and
making them globally competitive and relevant. Our suc-
cesses in medical research (through KEMRI and the Kenya
Aids Vaccine Initiative), agricultural research (including
KARI, ILRI and other institutions) can and should be built
upon. In addition, the presence on our shores of UNEP (as
well as the Green Belt Movement) and UN-Habitat should
mean that we have world class research institutions in envi-
ronmental affairs and urban planning. Our universities
should be at the centre of this.
The Political Pillar
The grand, overarching theme of the political pillar is the
establishment of a mature political system, one that is ‘issue
based, people centred, result oriented and accountable to the
public’.
While little in the political pillar can be argued against, there
needs to be emphasis on the fact that one of Kenya’s chief
problems is lack of respect for the rule of law. While the na-
tion was consumed over issues of constitutional change, we
gave little thought, or even lip service, to the fact that Ken-
yans at all levels dislike obeying the law. Political parties ig-
nore the spirit of the law when it suits them (including in
their policies regarding party membership in Parliament);
Presidents and opposition politicians and the rest of us only
obey the law when it suits us, and ignore it otherwise(witness
our utter disregard for traffic rules when no one’s looking).
Unless this culture undergoes a fundamental shift, setting up
new laws and institutions will serve little purpose.
The political pillar also needs to take cognisance of historical
wrongs, some dating back to colonial times, and others of
more recent provenance. Colonial land agreements, political
Issue 7
setups in recent times and crimes committed in the name of
politics remain malignant issues that can eat away at the Ken-
yan polity, unless they are acknowledged and solved.
Security, peace-building and conflict management needs to
acknowledge the role played by economic factors in crime.
The hard choices need to be made, such as reaching a bal-
ance between the nomadic pastoralist lifestyle and diminish-
ing resources, which often lead to conflict. Also, a market
based economy tends to be more and more individualistic,
and often more and more unequal. What balances can we
reach in ensuring we do what we set out to?
Other issues
There are a few other issues that may need to be incorpo-
rated into the Vision. These include:
Regional Integration
There is continuing movement towards regional integration,
perhaps culminating in some sort of confederation in East
Africa during the period covered by the Vision. Yet there is
little in it that takes this into account. Just by way of illustra-
tion, Rwanda, a member of the East African Community,
already has a Vision 2020 in place. How do the two Visions
acknowledge each other?
Competition
In addition to the competition already alluded to (such as in
BPO), we also need to recognise that countries from east
Asia, especially China, are taking over the world when it
comes to light manufacturing. We need to consider how to
thrive in such a competitive environment. Further, countries
such as Vietnam (in coffee) and Ethiopia (in horticulture) are
starting to eat into our global market share for agricultural
commodities, and the Vision seems to have no answer to
that.
Conclusion
Vision 2030 is an admirable document in many respects,
and, if successfully implemented, should drive Kenya to an
enviable global position, where we serve our citizens well, and
are globally competitive. However, it seems to have over-
looked several key issues, and needs to address these before it
can be considered complete.