PATH Annual Conference 9/17/01

EVOLUTION OF ITS BENEFIT / COST

RESEARCH AT PATH
AND DISCUSSION OF FUTURE
RESEARCH NEEDS

A Basis for Discussion

Katie Benouar and Erik Alm
Caltrans

PATH Annual Conference

October 17, 2001

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PATH Annual Conference 9/17/01

EVOLUTION OF ITS BENEFIT / COST RESEARCH AT PATH

I. INTRODUCTION / PROBLEM DEFINITION

Planners and engineers working in the field of ITS and transportation system
management are often challenged by decision makers to show how ITS and better system
management can enhance the benefits of projects by using existing facilities more
efficiently. Many ITS applications are not expensive in comparison to capital projects
and can achieve the same or better results in terms of levels of service to our customers.
However, ITS projects are a departure from the type of projects decision makers are
familiar with and the benefits sometimes seem tenuous.

Caltrans and PATH sought to respond to these questions, but when they looked around
for tools and evaluation frameworks with which to make this assessment there were none
that were satisfactory. The existing benefit-cost model in use by Caltrans to evaluate
projects proposed in the State TIP did not address the full range of benefits possible with
ITS. No other models available then addressed the unique benefits of ITS such as
providing more information to highway and transit travelers to assist in their route and
mode choices or to explore the effect of various ITS elements working in synergy with
each other.

The lack of assessment tools for ITS benefits led Caltrans and PATH to embark on
research projects to develop an ITS benefit-cost framework and decision support tools.
Presentations and discussions have been held over the years to guide the work of the
academic researchers and ensure its relevance for Caltrans planners and engineers.

II. HISTORY OF ITS BENEFIT / COST RESEARCH

PATH researcher, economist Dr. David Gillen, has been working with NT&R since the
mid 1990's on the development of ITS benefit/cost evaluation frameworks and analysis
tools that we plan to use to support ITS investment by Caltrans. As there is an existing
benefit-cost model used by Caltrans to assess traditional projects for the State TIP, Dr.
Gillen has attempted to make the ITS model similar in format. Though similar in format,
the two models differ in their assumptions, scope and applicability to ITS projects. The
official Caltrans model, called Cal B/C, is not designed to analyze ITS features of
projects. The concern of Caltrans planners and operations engineers is that ITS projects
may not compete well when ranked with other types of projects if the model is not
designed to assess ITS benefits.

The research products by Dr. Gillen include a general methodology for assessing the
benefits and costs of ITS projects, an assessment of the benefits and costs of Electronic
Toll Collection (ETC) at the Carquinez Bridge in the San Francisco Bay Area, (with B/C
model and manual), an assessment the benefits and costs of Ramp Meters in the Bay
Area, (with B/C model and manual) and an assessment of the benefits and costs of
Advanced Traveler Information Systems.

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Dr. Gillen has provided us with reports on the aggregate productivity

benefits from ITS applications in California, and the productivity benefits & cost
efficiencies from Advanced Vehicle Location applications on public transit. Recent
reports include analysis of commercial vehicle ITS applications in supply chain
management & e-commerce; existence value of ITS; and benefits of emergency
management & freeway service patrol.

We are currently funding Dr. Gillen’s work in two promising areas:

Assessing the Value of TMCs Dr. Gillen will develop a benefit-cost model with several
components of a TMC. The model will incorporate Changeable Message Signs, Freeway
Service Patrol and Ramp Metering and the project will employ empirical California data.
Model results will help us determine some of the synergistic impacts of ITS applications.
Additional work is planned for next fiscal year on calculating the economic value of
TMCs, by evaluating the integration of a number of ITS applications including ramp
meters, variable message signs, traffic information systems, traffic signal coordination
and Freeway Service Patrols.

Methods to Evaluate the Long-Term Effects of ITS Implementation: A General

Equilibrium Approach This project will first examine the implementation process of ITS
in three case studies; investigating the decision to adopt an ITS solution, how the
introduction of ITS was carried out, and how the value and performance of the ITS
application was assessed. The second part of this project will evaluate the demand for
transportation, and ITS in particular, as part of consumers overall investment choices.

III. TRANSFERRING RESEARCH PRODUCTS TO THE PRACTITIONERS:

CURRENT NEEDS

NT&R staff have taken on the task of ensuring that our research meets our goal and
supports the ITS deployment goals of Caltrans. We have subjected all our research
products to extensive review by Caltrans planners and engineers over the years and have
used that feedback to guide our path of research. We have set up forums for Dr. Gillen to
share his research findings with Caltrans practitioners. We have worked with district
planners attempting to use the Cal B/C model to analyze projects submitted for the State
TIP to field test the ITS benefit-cost models developed by Dr. Gillen and have held
discussions on the strengths and weaknesses of the various models.

The goal of our ITS benefit-cost research is to help Caltrans make wise investments in
ITS. How can we take complex models and make them useful to the practitioners and be
able to present them in a way that is clear and convincing? The overall goal of NT&R in
pursuing ITS benefit-cost research is to support deployment of ITS in Caltrans
transportation system management strategies. We want to provide an assessment tool or
set of tools that can be used in the Districts to analyze projects and in the state
programming process; these are essential aspects of deployment support in an era of ITS
mainstreaming. Furthermore, we want to provide our decision makers with the benefits
assessments that they can use when making funding decisions.

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The goal of providing Caltrans with a simple ITS B/C methodology can be achieved by
providing a simple ITS B/C model or models to justify ITS investments and sell
decisionmakers on the benefits of new ITS investments. The New Technology &
Research Division is working to form an ITS B/C Model Coordination Working Group to
assist in accomplishing this task by responding to the needs of Caltrans stakeholders in
ITS B/C model development. Funding is being sought to develop these models on an
accelerated basis.

IV. TRANSFERRING RESEARCH PRODUCTS TO THE PRACTITIONERS:

VISION

It is essential that this technology transfer work be done to realize the full benefits of our
ITS benefit-cost research. Ultimately what Caltrans practitioners need is a
comprehensive ITS Benefits Toolkit. While PATH research on ITS B/C has been a
foundation on which ITS B/C model development is being built, the ultimate goal needs
to be the practical application of this research and ITS B/C models into a package of
benefit assessment tools. These tools ought to be easily used by Caltrans planners and
engineers and help ensure that any ITS deployment idea is measured on equal footing
with other transportation improvements.

A growing body of tools exists to estimate and/or forecast the benefits of ITS
deployments. An ITS Benefits Assessment toolkit will assist practitioners in identifying
the proper analysis tool for specific situations. These currently include:

• Gillen ITS Benefit/Cost models

• ITS Decision database
• Case-Based Reasoning project at PATH
• IDAS analytical tool
• PeMs
• Other transportation planning and forecasting models

Additional general transportation planning tools might be enhanced by mainstreaming

consideration of ITS in the tools. These include:

• CAL B/C model

• Intermodal Transportation Management System (ITMS)
• California Transportation Investment Strategy Tool (CTIS)

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V. FUTURE RESEARCH QUESTIONS

PATH will undoubtedly continue to be involved in ITS Benefit/Cost innovations and

other ITS decision support activities at Caltrans. What are the research questions that
should be pursued in the next RFP? What do our customers need? What is the role of
PATH and what is the role of Caltrans in answering the research questions? Some
possible questions to be discussed in this forum are:

• Are ITS B/C models for additional applications needed? What does our customer
need now?

• Who will be responsible for developing additional ITS B/C models from applied
research? Is this a research task for PATH or a consultant activity?

• Who will field test these models with Caltrans districts and projects?

• How could the type of ITS B/C analysis tools discussed here (project or corridor-level
analysis models) be developed around clusters of related technology packages to
show both the individual and synergistic effects of ITS technology deployments?

• Is IDAS a tool that is useful in California?

• How can IDAS be used as a support tool for the simpler ITS B/C analysis tools
discussed here?

• How would improved ITS evaluation and other benefits data be used to enhance or
fine-tune ITS Benefit/Cost model development?

• Can the mixture of benefits, costs and other factors discussed in ITS B/C analysis
(notions of tangible and intangible benefits, existence value, network efficiency,
induced demand) ever be comparable enough to be used within the same models?

• Explore more parallels between emerging ITS concepts of operations and established
technology or logistics-based processes/business models with an eye toward new
ways to measure ITS benefits and costs.

• Synergies research: When included as part of a larger ITS system, does an ITS
element add sufficient incremental benefit to justify its cost?

• Research on specific ITS market packages: How do ITS technology bundles

employed for specific services provide targeted benefits for those uses? For instance,
current research on benefits specific to TMCs, additional research would be useful on
specific benefits of ITS to Bus Rapid Transit and passenger rail operations.

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• Do any major gaps remain in Benefit/Cost theory that would prevent us from moving
toward development of ITS Benefit/Cost models?

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ATTACHMENT: HISTORY OF ITS B/C RESEARCH AT PATH

Early PATH research in the area of ITS Benefit/Cost (1995-1997) sought to assess the
impact of congestion pricing on commercial trucking industries as well as provide a set of
usable, comprehensive transportation system performance measures, together with
processes for combining them (or not) into an overall evaluation process.

MOU 357 in early 1998 and 1999 sought to complete the evaluation framework drafted
under 205, particularly oriented to the evaluation of ITS projects and investments. For
each ITS application (WHAT ITS APPLICATIONS WERE SPECIFIED?), the
appropriate evaluation methodology, costs, benefits, factors effecting benefits and
valuation were investigated. The result were a set of reports assessing the methodology
of ITS Benefit/Cost, analysis tools to calculate B/C for ramp meters and electronic toll
collection, and a report on ITS evaluation methodology.

In mid-1999, MOU 3001 examined the expected benefits and costs of ITS applications
related to traffic operations. The purpose was to measure the expected net benefits of the
combination of ITS applications to parts of the State Highway system. The result was an
evaluation of the Caltrans TOPS program focusing on the net benefits of TOPS-related
ITS applications, evaluation methods for Freeway Service Patrols, a report on aggregate
productivity benefits of ITS in California, an evaluation of AVL productivity, and
insights into induced demand.

TO 4119 continued the traffic operations focus of MOU 3001, but sought to discover
how ITS applications worked in synergy with each other rather than in isolation.
Research into how certain ITS technologies are valued was also conducted. Evaluated
technologies included AVL/Bus Rapid Transit, Freeway Service Patrols. Other research
topics included CVO and its prospective role in the public sector and transit ITS analysis
for transit decision-making. The results were a series of reports on these topics.

TO 4132 pursues two integrated streams of research. First, research into the ‘integration’
of ITS applications continues by assessing the benefits of TMCs; specifically the
combination of ETC, ramp metering, FSPs, ATIS and traffic signals. The purpose is to
assess the gains from synergies across the joint application of ITS projects. The result of
this research will be development of TMC benefits case studies and a statistical modeling
assessment of TMC benefits and costs.

In the second research direction the effect of ITS investments on the broad economy
through their impact on changing systems, markets and networks will be examined. This
research seeks to develop a broad economic and social impact model that allows ITS
assessments and evaluations. This work will then be able to assess how ITS can impact
non-transportation related activity, activity whose value needs to be included in benefit
measures. The result of this work will be a report on CGE modeling as it relates to ITS.

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CHRONOLOGY OF ITS B/C RESEARCH

MOU 205: 1995 –1997

Principal Investigator(s): Pravin Varaiya and Stein Weissenberger
Research Question(s):
- To assess the impact of congestion pricing on commercial trucking industries.
- Development on performance, benefits and advanced transportation problems.
Deliverables:
1. Develop a set of usable, comprehensive transportation system performance
measures,
2. together with processes for combining them (or not) into an overall evaluation
process.
3. Identify base data sources to estimate the measures in # 1 above.
4. Build an intelligent database (DB) of costs and benefits associated with ATS
alternatives.
5. Consider the needs for analysis methodologies and associated tools to support
generic, but key ATS evaluation problems. Recommend the development of any
critically needed new tools. As an option, perform a set of “case studies” for
different tools and applications.
6. Recommend options for strategic ATS investment.
7. Organizational structure and process for supporting 1-5 above.

MOU 357: 1998-1999

Principal Investigator(s): J. Karl Hedrick and David Gillen
Research Question(s): Continuation of MOU 205, this MOU completes the evaluation
framework drafted under 205, particularly oriented to the evaluation of ITS projects and
investments. For each ITS application, the following are to be investigated:
- What is the context and therefore the
appropriate evaluation methodology?
- What are the actual costs of the ITS applications
under study?
- What are the actual benefits of the ITS
applications under study?
- What factors may affect the magnitude of the
benefits?
- How are the benefits and costs to be valued?
- What are the decision rules?
Deliverables:
1. Assessing the Benefits and Costs of ITS Projects:
Volume 1 Methodology
Volume 2 An Application to Electronic Toll Collection
2. Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent
Transportation Systems: Ramp Meters
3. Deploying Electronic Tolls
4. Evaluation Methodology for ITS applications.

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5. Users Manual for Computerized Benefit-Cost Analysis of Electronic Toll

Collection Systems

MOU 3001: 1999-2001

Principal Investigator(s): David Gillen
Research Question(s): This project will examine the expected benefits and costs of
different ITS applications that focus on traffic operations. The purpose being to
provide Caltrans Traffic Operations and New Technology with a measure of the expected
net benefits with the application of combinations of ITS applications to parts of the
California state highway system.
Deliverables:
1. Caltrans TOPS Evaluation: Assessing the Net Benefits of ITS Applications
2. Evaluation Methods for Measuring the Value of ITS Services and Benefits
from Implementation – Part X Freeway Service Patrols
3. Measuring the Aggregate Productivity Benefits from ITS Applications: The
California Experience
4. Productivity Benefits and Cost Efficiencies from ITS Applications to
Public Transit: The Evaluation of AVL
5. Whence Induced Demand: How Access Affects Activity

Task Order 4119: 2000-2001

Principal Investigator(s): David Gillen and Karl J. Hedrick
Research Question(s): This is a continuation of research funded under MOU 3001. This
task order project will examine the expected benefits and costs of different ITS
applications that focus on Traffic Operations. The value of this research is that it will
provide measures of the changes in benefits as the size of the project changes and as
projects are introduced in combination with one another.
Deliverables:
1. Assessing the Role of AVL in Demand Responsive
Responsive Transportation Systems.
2. Bus Rapid Transit And The Use of AVL Technology
3. Evaluation Methods for Measuring the value of ITS Services and Benefits from
implementation – Part X Freeway Service Patrols
1. Inter-Technology Effects in Intelligent Transportation Systems
2. Public and Private Benefits in Intelligent Transportation
Systems/Commercial Vehicle Operations: Electronic Clearance and Supply Chain
Management.

Task Order 4132: July 1, 2001 – June 30, 2003

Principal Investigator(s): David Gillen
Research Question(s): This project moves forward from the accumulated knowledge
garnered from MOU 357, MOU 3001, and task order 4119. In this research we pursue
two integrated streams of research.

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• First, we examine the ‘integration’ of ITS applications – ETC, ramp metering,

FSPs, ATIS and traffic signals – in the form of TMCs. Our purpose is to assess
the gains from synergies across the joint application of ITS projects.
• In the second research direction we examine the effect of ITS investments on the
broad economy through their impact on changing systems, markets and networks.
This research would be oriented at developing a broad economic and social
impact model that allow such assessments and evaluations. This work will then
impact non-transportation related activity, activity whose value needs to be
included in benefit measures.
Deliverables:
1. January 1, 2002 – Caltrans TMC Case Studies
2. June 30, 2002 – TMC Statistical Modeling Assessment
3. June 30, 2003 – Report on Demand Side Measures
(CGE Modeling)

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