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ScienceDirect
Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 135–140
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in

Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018)

Forecasting of traffic intensity on suburban routes

Dmitriy Dzhuruka, Anton Zedgenizovb*
a
East Siberian Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 110 Lermontov St., Irkutsk, 664074, Russia
b
Irkutsk National Research Technical University, 83 Lermontov St., Irkutsk, 664074,Russia

Abstract

Information on traffic intensity is essential for development of measures to improve road traffic safety, while its forecasting on
the roads is an integral part of the process of designing road facilities outside populated localities. This article considers and
analyzes existing methods of forecasting traffic intensity. Calculation of traffic intensity on federal road A - 350 (Chita –
Zabaikalsk) is given according to the procedure approved by Decree of the Ministry of Transport No. OS-555-r “On Enforcement
of the Manual on Forecasting of Traffic Intensity on Roads” dated 19 June 2003. In addition, regression analysis has been carried
out based on the data on the actual average annualized daily intensity on the federal roads of the Siberian Federal District and the
number of residents of settlements located close to it. As a result of the study based on probabilistic statistical modeling, a
correlation was established between the traffic intensity and the number of residents of the nearest populated localities on the
selected federal roads of the Siberian Federal District. This was used as a basis for development of mathematical model of
dependence.
© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and
Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).
Keywords: traffic intensity; federal roads; road traffic safety.

1. Introduction

The active growth of the level of motorization in Russia causes a rapid increase in the traffic intensity in the
whole country. Over the past 20 years, the level of motorization in Russia grew more than two and a half times, and
in 2015 it was slightly over 300 cars per 1,000 people. At the same time, according to the forecast of the Ministry of

*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-903-019-9791
E-mail: azedgen@gmail.com

2352-1465  2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic
Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).
10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.055
13 Dmitriy Dzhuruk et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 135–140

Economic Development of Russia, by 2020, the number of cars will amount to about 400 cars per 1,000 people, by
2030 – 600 cars per 1,000 people (Forecast of long-term social and economic development of the Russian
Federation for the period until 2030). At the same time, the length and traffic capacity of the existing road network
fails to keep up with the development of transport, which in its turn negatively affects the accident rate. According
to the 9-months results in 2017, there were 120,069 road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation, which resulted
in 13,305 fatalities and 153,617 cases of injury. Still, there has been an annual reduction of the road accident rate.
However, despite the positive dynamics, the specific indicators of road traffic safety are still high. It should be noted
that at a relatively low level of accident rate on federal roads in Russia (13% of all accidents occur annually on
federal routes), the number of fatal road traffic accidents amounts to 27% of the total.

2. Study background

The influence of traffic intensity on the relative accident rate is described in sufficient detail in the papers by
Professor V.B. Babkov (1993), V.V. Ambartsumyan, V.V. Silyanov (1977) et al. According to numerous
observations, the dependence of the accident rate on traffic intensity for two-lane roads resembles a bell, the peak of
which corresponds to an average daily intensity of 10,000 vehicles. Thus, information on traffic intensity is essential
for development of measures to improve road traffic safety. Intensity is the most important characteristic of the
traffic flow, the value of which determines the importance of the road, its geometries, the required level of traffic
management, funding of the road maintenance services, etc. (Levashina, 2009; Dombalyan et al., 2016).
To date, there are several approaches to determining traffic intensity. The most widely used and accurate one is
determination of traffic intensity with the use of automated registration means. This method allows determining the
value of the indicator with high degree of accuracy, performing analysis of changes in intensity during the day or
year and in the type of vehicle stock. However, this method allows determining the value of traffic intensity only at
a certain point and is very expensive. Other shortcomings of this method include the demand for availability of
communications (power supply, communication channels). It should be noted that the Russian Federation has
introduced and operating automated traffic intensity registration system consisting of more than 450 sites, which
represents a system for collecting, processing, transmitting and storing information on traffic flows on federal roads
(ROSAVTODOR, 2010). Mostly, the registration sites are located on access ways to large cities and at intersections
of major roads. Similar systems are used in other countries as well: Marksman 660 in Great Britain, TMS (Traffic
Monitoring System) in Finland, NU-Metriss in the USA, and others. It is less common to directly monitor the traffic
flow. Due to its versatility, this method can be used on any roads in any locality, but due to the human factor, the
measurement periods and their accuracy are extremely low (Ichkitidze et al., 2016).
The above methods are fundamental in determining the prospective traffic intensity by design companies, as well
as during the design and renovation of existing roads. At the same time, the values of the intensity indicator over the
10-15 years of road operation is used for calculations with increasing such indicator by intensity growth rate. A
major shortcoming of these methods is impossibility of determining traffic intensity on the road section between the
registration sites, as the quantitative intensity factor in these sections can vary significantly (Konovalova et al.,
2016; Malakhov and Aleksikov, 2017).
The method of statistical analysis of the accident rate and determining the degree of influence of various factors
on its level requires a completely different approach. In this case, it becomes necessary to measure the traffic
intensity in the accident cluster. At the same time, carrying out field tests is quite difficult, since the number of such
clusters can be very high. The only way to determine the intensity in this case is the calculation method. The
advantages of this method include the possibility to determine the value of traffic intensity indicator at any point of
the route, and the absence of need of actual presence at the measurement site. However, the calculation method is
prone to some errors; it also lacks the possibility of registration of the actual change in the intensity rate by the time
of day, day of the week or month of the year (Dombalyan et al., 2016). Registration of changes in the traffic
intensity by the time of the day is possible on the basis of hourly nonuniformity coefficients typical of the locality in
question, and the hourly nonuniformity coefficients in the immediate vicinity (affected area, approximately 20 km)
to a major populated locality will have values that are typical for such locality (Tornberg and Odhage, 2018).
Registration of changes by the days of the week and the months of the year will correspond to the climatic zones of
the territory of the country, in particular, the coefficients of seasonal nonuniformity of suburban passenger traffic on
the Russian road network in most cases varies within the limits of 1.15¸1.20. For major cities and industrial centers
of the country, where work trips and other regular trips prevail, seasonal fluctuations are 1.1¸1.25. In some parts of
major cities with a pronounced nature of seasonal trips, the monthly nonuniformity coefficient is 1.3¸1.8
(Irregularity of passenger transportation, 2017; Traffic volume trends, 1973). In national and international
publications, traffic intensity is calculated by reconstruction of a correspondence matrix, analyzing data on actual
traffic intensity, location of mobile phones, volumes of fuel sales at petrol stations, etc. (Castillo et al., 2008;
Tolouei et al., 2017; Yang et al., 1991). However, such approaches require data on traffic intensity at entrances to
residential areas and exits from residential areas, which can be obtained only using vehicle detectors. Such data
acquisition may be difficult and implies the necessity to develop methods based on economic and statistical data of
traffic system operation.
The calculation method for determining traffic intensity on roads of the Russian Federation is currently
conducted according to the procedure approved by Decree No. OS-555-r of the Ministry of Transport “On
Enforcement of the Manual on Forecasting of Traffic Intensity on Roads” dated 19.06.2003. This method is being
tested by the federal road authorities. The calculation of intensity involves creating a matrix of correspondence
between the localities of the area under study. And the traffic intensity at a particular section of the road is formed as
a result of summing of the traffic intensity calculated between all pairs of localities connected by this section.
Traffic intensity on the road section between two corresponding localities is determined by the following
equation:

K Pp  K c  Ql Vl  l 
Nl  P  K  Q V    K P  K  Q V  
Kgp c а а а а  p c g g g (1)
ij
1000  L 2 1000  L 2 1000  L 
pr pr pr

where: PP is the total reduced population in localities i and j;

KC is the coefficient of connectivity of localities i and j;
Ql, Qg, Qa is the current or perspective level of saturation of territory with cars, trucks and buses respectively;
Vl, Vg, Vа is the average speed of cars, trucks and buses under reference conditions respectively;
λl, λg, λа is the average runtime of cars, trucks and buses within 24 hours respectively;
Kl, Kg, Kа is the coefficient characterizing the use of cars, trucks and buses respectively;
Lpr is the reduced distance between localities i and j;
α –is the exponent used in calculating the traffic intensity of motor vehicles.
This method takes into account such data as traffic intensity of the three main groups of vehicles (cars, trucks and
buses), level of motorization in the region, etc. At the same time, when calculating the traffic intensity at the
regional level, only localities with a population over 10,000 inhabitants are considered. Such approach restricts the
accuracy of the calculation, which necessitates taking into account smaller localities. However, taking into account
smaller localities leads to significant expansion of the correspondence matrix and complication of subsequent
calculations, which is associated with a large number of arguments and the need to determine them manually
(tabulated coefficients). Moreover, the method of determining the reduced distance between localities causes certain
difficulties, since it requires consideration of many parameters. In view of this, calculating the traffic intensity using
this method is a very labor-intensive process, the use of which is expedient in case of high density of roads. In case
of low density of roads (e.g., in the Siberian or Far Eastern Federal District), it is expedient to forecast traffic
intensity using a simplified procedure based on public data (e.g., the number of residential areas within a certain
radius of reach, allowing for frequent trips, including those related to work).

3. Evaluation of traffic intensity on suburban routes

For a comparative example of accuracy estimation, the traffic intensity was calculated on federal road A-350
(Chita-Zabaikalsk), the length of which is 490 kilometers. The intensity was calculated taking into account localities
with population of over 4,000 inhabitants located on the route under study, and on adjacent regional road A-167. As
a result, the road was divided into 10 sections, the boundaries of which were localities: Atamanovka,
Novokrucininsky, Darasun, Aginskoye, Mogoytuy, Olovyannaya, Yasnogorsk, Sherlova Gora, Borzya. Based on the
results of the calculation, the value of traffic intensity on each section of the route was determined as a result of the
summing of the traffic intensities between corresponding localities passing through a specific section of the road
under study.
 Table 1. Values of traffic intensity on sections of A-350 route determined according to the method approved by Decree No OS-555-r of the
Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation dated 19 June 2003.
Locality Kilometer of the road Traffic intensity, vehicles/day

Chita-Atamanovka 0-19 9,774

Atamanovka-Novokrucininsky 19-45 5,066
Novokrucininsky-Darasun 45-65 4,218
Darasun-Aginskoye 65-153 1,381
Aginskoye-Mogoytuy 153-190 2,322
Mogoytuy-Olovyannaya 190-250 1,221
Olovyannaya-Yasnogorsk 250-270 1,529
Yasnogorsk-Sherlova Gora 270-340 396
Sherlova Gora-Borzya 340-370 949
Borzya-Zabaikalsk 370-480 123

The research method included collection and analysis of statistical information on traffic intensity on the federal
routes of the Siberian Federal District and on the number of inhabitants of localities in the area affecting the road
section under study. Data on the actual average annualized daily intensity on the federal roads of the Siberian
Federal District in 2016 were obtained for the analysis. A list of populated localities, their population and location
with reference to the kilometer of the road has been compiled. All populated localities with population of over 100
people were taken into account.
During the analysis, a hypothesis was suggested that the main factor influencing the traffic intensity is the
number of inhabitants of populated localities in the area affecting the road section under study (Apronti et al., 2016).
At the same time, as the regression analysis showed, this dependence is typical only of the “dead-end” roads, i.e. the
roads having no more than one junction to other federal routes. In the Siberian Federal District, such roads include:
A-320, A-322, A-331 “Vilyuy”, A-350, R-256 “Chuysky Trakt”, R-257 Yenisei and R-402. This is due to absence
of transit transport on these roads, which has significant impact on traffic intensity. It should be noted that populated
localities affect the traffic intensity only within a certain area (Zedgenizov and Burkov, 2017). Such area is the
territory located at a distance of 43 kilometers from the populated locality; this value is due to transport accessibility
of the suburbanized territories, for example, for the city of Irkutsk (600 thousand inhabitants), the value was 16 km
(Pankratova et al., 2016).
Based on the analysis, the correlation coefficient amounted to 0.94, which indicates a very close interrelation
between the variables. The coefficient of multiple determination of R2 mathematical model is 0.888, which also
indicates a high accuracy of the calculation. The regression analysis of the data allowed to obtain empirical
dependence of the traffic intensity on the number of inhabitants of populated localities affecting the section under
study.
N  0.017325  P  2530 (2)
where P is the number of inhabitants of populated localities located within the 43-kilometer area from the road
section under study, people.

4. Convergence of traffic intensity evaluation results

The traffic intensity was calculated on the section of A-350 road (near the Atamanovka settlement) in order to
compare the accuracy of the forecast. In this case, the it is necessary to determine the populated localities that
influence the road section under study. The following populated localities are located within the 43-km area from
the section under study: Chita with population of 347,088 inhabitants, Atamanovka with population of 10,364
inhabitants, Alexandrovka with population of 994 inhabitants, Novokrucininsky with population of 10,159
inhabitants and Makaveevo with a population of 4,145 inhabitants. The total number of inhabitants of all populated
localities amounted to 372,750. Accordingly, the calculated value of the daily intensity in this section amounts to
8,989 vehicles/day. The actual value of the traffic intensity was 9,180 vehicles/day. Similar calculation is made for
each road section under study.
Figure 1 shows the graphs of the change in the intensity of traffic on A-350 road obtained as a result of the actual
intensity measurement, calculation according to the method approved by Decree No. OS-555-r of the Ministry of
Transport “On Enforcement of the Manual on Forecasting of Traffic Intensity on Roads” dated 19 June 2003, and
proposed mathematical model.

Fig. 1. Change in traffic intensity on road А-350.

5. Conclusions

In conclusion, it should be noted that results of calculations according to the proposed method (Decree of the
Ministry of Transport No. OS-555-r, 2003), using the empirical dependence, obtained based on the data on traffic
intensity provided by detectors, showed high convergence with actual traffic intensity values. Therefore, it is
possible to use the obtained empirical dependence when determining the value of daily traffic intensity on dead-end
suburban routes in regions with low density of roads. Among advantages of the proposed method, its low labor-
intensity and possible automatization shall be noted. As for disadvantages, it is impossible to use the method within
the advanced traffic network typical for the European Part of the Russian Federation.
Summing up, it is reasonable to use the suggested dependence when determining the average annual daily traffic
intensity on suburban routes in regions with low density of roads. Other factors affecting traffic intensity can be
analyzed in further researches. Such factors include the level of automobilization in residential areas, their square
area, status, etc.

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