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Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

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Marine Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol

The role of the marine industry in China's national economy: An T


input–output analysis

Yixuan Wang, Nuo Wang
Department of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, 217 Room Jidian Building, Linghai Road 1#, Dalian 116026, China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Perception of the importance of the marine industry is crucial for marine policy measures. Based on China's
Input–output analysis input–output tables for 2002, 2007, and 2012, this study disaggregates 12 major marine sectors as exogenous
Marine industry and assesses the impacts of China's marine industry by determining the inter-industry linkage effect, the pro-
Marine policy duction-inducing effect, the sectoral supply shortage effect, and the employment-inducing effect. These models
China
are effective in estimating the contribution of the marine industry and explore the evolution of marine industrial
structure. Finally, policy applications are proposed to provide reliable and useful information for China's pol-
icymakers to promote marine policies and manage the marine system.

1. Introduction environmental planning [8], energy issues [9,10], regional economics


[11,12], and employment and labour [13,14]. Additionally, I–O ana-
The ocean covers approximately 71% of earth's surface and is rich in lysis is widely applied to the marine and marine-related industries of
various types of natural resources. Therefore, the marine industry has not only regional economies but also national economies. For example,
great commercial potential and plays an indispensable role in economic using the I–O model, Kwak et al. [15] determined the South Korean
development [1]. The 21st century is the century of the ocean. Faced maritime industry's characteristics, such as high backward linkages and
with shortage of land resources and energy exhaustion, an increasing high production- and employment-inducing effects. Based on this
number of countries have become aware of the importance of the ocean model, Lee et al. [16] compared South Korea's four transportation
resources and taken measures for marine management, such as pro- modes: waterways, highways, railways, and air. Lee et al. [17] also
moting marine policies and strengthening the regulation of marine re- demonstrated the role of two fishing industries — capture fisheries and
sources [2]. aquaculture — in the national economy. In empirical studies, Hawaii,
China has more than 6500 oceanic islands and 32,000 km of Leung, and Pooley [18] and Cai et al. [19] used supply-driven multi-
coastline, and it shares maritime boundaries with Japan, South Korea, pliers to assess the impacts of reducing the operations of longline
North Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, and fisheries and to discuss the marine capture fisheries industries under
Vietnam. China's superior shoreline and geographical location con- four scenarios. In an empirical study in Ireland, Morrissey, and O'Do-
tribute to it being the world's fastest-growing economy [3,4]. With the noghue [20,21] disaggregated the Irish I–O table to ten additional
improvement of public transport infrastructure, such as waterways, marine sectors and assessed the cluster formation of the Irish maritime
railways, and highways, the marine economic hinterland has gradually transportation industry. Also, Grealis et al. [22] used the Irish 2010 I–O
expanded, and its influence has spread into further inland areas, table to highlight the potential indirect economic impacts of the stra-
neighbouring countries, and even the world [5,6]. China's marine in- tegic plan for the sustainable aquaculture industry. In an empirical
dustry is becoming a powerful impetus for the domestic economy and study from the West Coast of the United States, Kapland and Leonard
even the global economy. [23] combined the I–O model with the end-to-end ecological method to
The input–output (I–O) model was proposed by American economist trace the economic and ecological impacts of patterns of fisheries’
Wassily Leontief [7] in the 1930s. Based on the general framework of management. In empirical research from Spain, Garza-Gil et al. [24]
the I–O table, Leontief used the inverse matrix to solve the mathema- found that the production of the fishing and aquaculture industries
tical relationship of inter-industry transaction tables. Since then, the accounted for 2% in the Galician regional economy and significantly
I–O model has become important in a wide range of fields, such as affected output, income, and employment. Overall, the I–O model is an


Corresponding author.
E-mail address: wangnuo@dlmu.edu.cn (N. Wang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.10.019
Received 31 May 2018; Received in revised form 25 September 2018; Accepted 8 October 2018
0308-597X/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

accurate and effective method to evaluate the inter-sectoral linkage and Table 1
to analyse the contribution of the marine industry. The categories of the 12 major marine sectors.
Previous studies of China's marine economy have been limited to a Category Specific sectors
single specific marine sector, such as marine fishing, aquaculture, or
marine tourism [25–27]. Moreover, few studies have comprehensively marine primary marine fishery
sector
assessed the impacts on the economy of the entire marine sector.
marine secondary offshore oil and gas, oceanic mining, marine salt, marine
Therefore, this study uses the I–O model to assess China's marine in- sector chemical, marine biological pharmaceutical, marine power,
dustry according to the panel data of China's I–O tables for 2002, 2007, seawater utilisation, marine shipbuilding, marine
and 2012. An additional 12 marine sectors are extracted, and their engineering construction
outputs are exogenised to build a series of models of marine sectors. marine tertiary marine transportation, coastal tourism
sector
The results are estimated as the inter-sectoral linkage effect, the pro-
duction-inducing effect of marine investment, the supply shortage effect
of marine loss, and the employment-inducing effect. The main objective China's marine industry is not only one of the most important eco-
for these findings is to quantify the contribution of marine sectors to nomic pillars but also improves opportunities in the job markets, pro-
China's national economy over time and explore the evolution of ducing great employment benefits. The development of the marine
marine industrial structure. In addition, policy applications are pro- economy has directly increased its own demand for employees and
posed to provide policy-makers with full understanding of the marine indirectly promoted employment in marine-related industries. In 2017,
economy and to help establish marine regulations. the number of people employed by the marine and marine-related
This study is structured as follows: Section 2 describes the current sectors increased to 36.57 million, representing 4.17% of the national
status of China's marine industry. Section 3 shows the data and meth- employment [31]. With the vigorous development of emerging sectors,
odology examining the marine industry's contribution to the national like the marine biological pharmaceutical, marine power, and seawater
economy from four aspects: the inter-industry linkage model, the pro- utilisation sectors, the quality of employees has been improved uni-
duction-inducing model, the sectoral supply shortage model, and the versally. This phenomenon provides a strongly talented reserve force
employment-inducing model. Section 4 analyses the results. Section 5 for the development of marine undertakings.
provides policy applications and makes concluding remarks.

3. Materials and methods


2. Current status of the marine industry in China
3.1. Data sources
China's marine industry is divided into 12 major sub-sectors1:
marine fishery, offshore oil and gas, oceanic mining, marine salt, To investigate the roles of the China's marine industry, we use
marine chemical, marine biological pharmaceutical, marine power, China's I–O tables for 2002, 2007, and 2012 [32], compiled by the
seawater utilisation, marine shipbuilding, marine engineering con- National Bureau of Statistics of China every five years. In addition, the
struction, marine transportation, and coastal tourism. Table 1 shows basic data, such as value added, total output value, and compensation
that 12 marine sectors are classified as three economic sectors [28,29]: of employees, is from the China Ocean Statistical Yearbook and the China
the marine primary sector (marine agriculture), the marine secondary Ocean Industry Economic Bulletin, both of which are issued by the State
sector (marine manufacturing) and the marine tertiary sector (marine Oceanic Administration [33].
services). The rank of the sectors in the 2012 I–O table is somewhat different
Fig. 1 shows that China's marine economy has developed rapidly in from those in 2002 and 2007 because of some changes to the Standard
the 21st century [30]. China's gross ocean product (GOP) reached of Industrial Classification compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics
$1149.50 billion2 in 2017, more than ten times greater than that in of China. For example, the general and special equipment manu-
2001. Moreover, the GOP's proportion in GDP grew significantly, from facturing sector (No.16) in the 2002 and 2007 I–O tables is divided into
6.53% to 9.16% between 2001 and 2007, despite a slight decrease in two parts — the general equipment manufacturing sector (No.16) and
2005, after which it increased to 9.38% in 2017. Additionally, the the special equipment manufacturing sector (No.17) — in the 2012 I–O
marine industrial structure has changed dramatically over time. The table, whereas the transportation and warehousing sector (No.27) and
composition of the added value of China's marine primary, secondary, the postal sector (No.28) are incorporated in one part — the trans-
and tertiary sectors’ was 31%, 23%, and 56%, respectively, in 2001 and portation, warehousing, and postal sector (No.30). Moreover, the sec-
5%, 39%, and 57%, respectively, in 2017. As can be seen, the primary tors ranked 17th to 26th in the 2002 and 2007 I–O tables are ranked
marine sector decreased gradually and by a large margin, whereas the 18th to 29th in the 2012 I–O table. Thus, the ranking of the sectors in
secondary and tertiary sectors continued to increase. the 2012 I–O table is adjusted based on the ranking in the 2002 and
As shown in Fig. 2, the composition of the marine sub-sectors 2007 I–O Table and the Standard of Industrial Classification GB/T 4754-
changed significantly during this period. Coastal tourism accounted for 2011.
30% of GOP in 2001 and nearly half in 2017, while the marine fishery
sector accounted for 27.73% in 2001 but only 14.74% in 2017. Fur- 3.2. Methodology
thermore, because the Chinese government is emphasising the sus-
tainable utilisation of the ocean and supporting environmentally 3.2.1. General framework of the I–O model
friendly marine sub-sectors, the scale of newly emerging sectors, such In the I–O table, the columns show each sector's input values, and
as the marine biological pharmaceutical, marine power, and seawater the rows represent their output values [34]. Suppose an I–O table is
utilisation sectors, has expanded stably. separated into n sectors. Xi denotes the total input of sector i; Yi denotes
the total final demand for products in sector i; aij denotes the sector-
1 between direct input coefficients matrix (from each sector i to each
Besides the major 12 marine sectors, there are various marine-related ser-
vices involved in China's marine economy: e.g., marine scientific research, sector j); rij denotes the sector-between direct output coefficients matrix
marine education, and marine governance. The definitions of the marine in- (from each sector i to each sector j); Xj denotes the total output value of
dustry are regulated by the State Oceanic Administration of China. sector j; and zj denotes the added value of sector j. The key assumption
2
The average exchange rate in 2017 was ¥100 = $14.81. These data are is associated with the basic Leontief model and can be an index to
from the China Marine Statistical Yearbook. evaluate the contribution of a specific sector within a particular period

43
Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

1400 10

$ billion

%
tertiary industry secondary industry primary industry GOP/GDP

1200

9
1000

800
8
600

400
7

200

0 6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fig. 1. China's gross ocean product (GOP), and the proportion of GOP in GDP for China from 2001 to 2017.

100%
Coastal tourism

90% Marine transportation

80% Marine engineering construction

Marine shipbuilding
70%
Seawater utilization
60%
Marine power
50%
Marine biological pharmaceutical

40% Marine chemical

30% Marine salt

Oceanic mining
20%
Offshore oil and gas
10%
Marine fishery
0%
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Year

Fig. 2. Composition of 12 marine sectors’ added value from 2001 to 2017.

of time. The conventional representation of I–O equations can be ex- With regard to the power of dispersion, the backward linkage re-
pressed as follows [7,15–24]: flects a column vector analysis of the Leontief inverse matrix [15]. This
n n model analyses the impacts on all sectors’ production when the final
Xi = ∑ xij + Yi = ∑ aij Xj + Yi demand of one marine sector increases by one unit. The social average
j=1 j=1 (1) level of all sectors is 1. Thus, when the backward linkage of one marine
sector is more than 1, it means that the sector's impact on the national
n n
economy exceeds the social average level of all sectors. The larger the
Xj = ∑ xij + Zj = ∑ rij Xi + Zj
i=1 i=1 (2) backward linkage, the greater the production-inducing effect on other
sectors. The backward linkage effect can be expressed as follows:
There is not a single separate marine sector in China's 42-sector I–O
n n n
table. To analyse the I–O model of the marine industry, we need to
disaggregate the 12 major marine sub-sectors from the I–O table [20].
λi = ∑ bij /((1/n) ∑ ∑ bij)
j=1 i=1 j=1 (3)
The specific steps are as follows: Firstly, we collect the statistical data
(e.g., value added, total output value, and compensation of employees) n
where λi denotes the backward linkage effect, ∑ j = 1 bij is the sum of the
of 12 marine sectors [28]. Next, according to the Industrial Classification Leontief inverse matrix column vector, and (1/ n) ∑i = 1 ∑ j = 1 bij is the
n n
Standard GB/T4754–2011, we calculate the decomposing weights, that
average of the Leontief inverse matrix.
is, the proportions of each sub-sector's added value in its affiliated
With regard to the sensitivity of dispersion, the forward linkage
sector (Table 2). Finally, the separate 12 marine sectors are dis-
analyses the change of one marine sector when the final use in the
aggregated from the original I–O table.
remaining sectors increases by one unit [15]. The forward linkage re-
flects a row vector analysis of the Leontief inverse matrix. The forward
3.2.2. Inter-industry linkage model linkage effect can be expressed as follows:
To examine the strengths of the inter-sectoral linkage within the
n n n
national economy account, the inter-industry linkage model is proposed
to measure the backward linkage and forward relationship; that is, the
δj = ∑ bij /((1/n) ∑ ∑ bij)
i=1 i=1 j=1 (4)
backward linkage represents the importance of the marine sectors as
n
demanders, whereas the forward linkage shows their importance as where δj denotes the forward linkage effect, and ∑i = 1 bij is the sum of
suppliers [18,19]. Leontief inverse matrix row vector.

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Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

Table 2
Added value of marine sub-sectors and their weights in 2002, 2007, and 2012.
Initial sector→ Marine sector 2002 2007 2012

Added value Weight Added value Weight Added value Weight


($ billion) ($ billion) ($ billion)

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery→ marine fishery 17.89 0.0727 28.20 0.0664 54.09 0.0697
Petroleum and natural gas extraction→ offshore oil and gas 5.18 0.1506 11.39 0.1350 23.25 0.2095
Metals’ mining and dressing→ offshore oil and gas 0.01 0.0018 0.04 0.0014 0.58 0.008
Non-metals’ mining and dressing→ oceanic mining 0.01 0.0018 0.03 0.0014 0.33 0.008
Food products’ and tobacco processing→ marine salt 0.41 0.0063 0.74 0.0049 1.10 0.0036
Chemical→ marine chemical 2.61 0.0304 3.10 0.0166 11.61 0.0338
Chemical→ marine biological pharmaceutical 0.24 0.0081 0.59 0.0064 2.55 0.0146
Electricity, heat production and supply→ marine power 1.57 0.0267 0.07 0.0006 1.04 0.0056
Water production and supply→ seawater utilisation 0.12 0.0297 0.06 0.0073 0.16 0.0141
Transportation equipment manufacturing→ marine shipbuilding 0.03 0.0009 6.64 0.0697 19.71 0.1035
Construction→ marine engineering construction 2.04 0.0209 5.07 0.0236 15.92 0.0292
Transportation and warehousing→ marine transportation 15.39 0.1523 50.56 0.2334 71.12 0.2094
Accommodation and catering→ coastal tourism 15.40 0.3596 37.71 0.4573 75.37 0.5336
Tourism→ coastal tourism 2.10 0.3596 – – – –
Culture, sports, and entertainment→ coastal tourism 4.37 0.3596 10.31 0.4573 27.89 0.5336

Table 3 ΔXe′ = Rm ΔXm (I − R e )−1 (6)


Backward and forward linkage effects of China's marine sectors.
Where ΔXe′ denotes the supply shortage effect; additionally, this model
Backward linkage Forward linkage
can be used to determine the cost of loss in the marine industry's supply
2002 2007 2012 2002 2007 2012 shortage.

Marine fishery 0.7867 0.7222 0.7241 0.5327 0.4646 0.475


Offshore oil and gas 0.6934 0.7795 0.7435 0.5606 0.555 0.6289 3.2.5. Employment-inducing model
Oceanic mining 0.9616 1.0134 0.9596 0.3982 0.3403 0.3477 The contribution of the marine industry to employment can be
Marine salt 1.0172 0.9867 0.9841 0.4022 0.3454 0.3438
embodied in the number of employees in marine and marine-related
Marine chemical 1.1775 1.2183 1.2183 0.5172 0.4121 0.4857
Marine biological 1.1775 1.2182 1.2183 0.4077 0.353 0.3707 industries. According to the employee compensation matrix, the marine
pharmaceutical sectors are viewed as exogenous variables [15–17], and the employ-
Marine power 0.8751 1.0927 1.0757 0.4005 0.3407 0.3512 ment-inducing effect can be expressed as follows:
Seawater utilisation 0.888 0.8856 0.8734 0.398 0.3397 0.3393
Marine shipbuilding 1.2611 1.3232 1.2839 0.4466 0.4221 0.4291 ΔLe = Ie (I − Ae )−1Am ΔXm (7)
Marine engineering 1.2038 1.1822 1.1522 0.4027 0.3413 0.3438
construction
where ΔLe denotes the employment-inducing by the marine industry,
Marine transportation 0.9194 0.8798 0.948 0.6893 0.6785 0.6734
Coastal tourism 0.943 0.9134 0.8568 0.6622 0.6418 0.5850
which can be used to estimate the number of people employed by the
Average 0.9920 1.0179 1.0032 0.4848 0.4362 0.4478 marine and marine-related industries. Ie denotes the labour compen-
sation matrix.

3.2.3. Demand-driven model


Miller and Blair [34] proposed the demand-driven model, in which 4. Results
final demands for a targeted sector and gross outputs for the remainder
are specified exogenously. This model can be used to assess the eco- 4.1. Inter-industry linkage effect
nomic contribution of some sectors. In this study, the basic relationship
of the I–O model is e = (I − Ae )−1 (Fe + Am Xm ) , where A denotes the Table 3 shows the inter-industry forward and backward linkage
direct input matrix, e denotes the remaining sectors except for the effects of the marine sectors in 2002, 2007, and 2012. The average of
marine sector, and m is the marine sector. Increase in the final demand the backward linkage of the 12 marine sectors fluctuates between
of the marine industry will inevitably induce increases in the produc- 0.9920 and 1.1790, which is almost equal to the social average. The
tion of other sectors [15–17]. Assuming that the marine industry average of the forward linkages fluctuates between 0.4362 and 0.4848,
changes by one unit, ΔFe = 0 , the marine sector's production-inducing which is generally lower than the social average. It can be seen that the
effect can be expressed as follows: marine industry has a relatively strong backward linkage and a weak
forward linkage.
ΔXe = (I − Ae )−1Am ΔXm (5) Given the marine industrial structure, five secondary marine sec-
tors, namely, marine shipbuilding, marine chemical, marine biological
where ΔXe denotes the production-inducing effect. This model can be
pharmaceutical, marine power, and marine engineering construction,
used to analyse the production-inducing impacts of the marine industry
have strong backward linkage and weak forward linkage effects be-
as the initial investment on the output of other sectors.
cause, although these sectors require many upstream sectors’ products
and services, many of their products are also used in downstream sec-
3.2.4. Supply-driven model tors. Thus, it can be deduced that these sectors belong to intermediate
Eq. (2) in the I–O table can also be expressed as X ′ = Z′ (I − R)−1. primary production industries. Marine fishery, offshore oil and gas,
The upper mark (′) denotes the transposition of the given matrix, R oceanic mining, marine salt, and seawater utilisation are traditional
represents the direct distribution coefficient matrix, and (I − R e )−1 de- sectors that have both low backward and forward linkages, and these
notes the complete distribution matrix for eliminating the row and sectors are the final primary production industries. Marine tertiary
column of the marine industry [15–17]. Thus, the supply shortage effect sectors, marine transportation, and coastal tourism also have weak
can be expressed as follows: forward and backward linkages.

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Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

Table 4
Production-inducing effects of China's marine sectors.
No. Sector 2002 2007 2012 No. Sector 2002 2007 2012
1 Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery 0.1436 0.1413 0.1337 22 Waste scrap 0.0038 0.0116 0.0074
2 Coal mining and dressing 0.0215 0.0289 0.0398 23 Electricity, heat production and supply 0.0493 0.0959 0.0762
3 Petroleum and natural gas extraction 0.0365 0.0659 0.0508 24 Gas production and supply 0.0019 0.0031 0.0057
4 Metals’ mining and dressing 0.0085 0.0212 0.0257 25 Water production and supply 0.0036 0.0033 0.0016
5 Non-metal minerals’ mining and dressing 0.0070 0.0080 0.0160 26 Construction 0.0124 0.0043 0.0099
6 Food products and tobacco processing 0.1030 0.1548 0.1576 27 Transportation and warehousing 0.0757 0.0588 0.0812
7 Textile 0.0114 0.0182 0.0212 28 Postal 0.0019 0.0017 0.0018
8 Leather, furs, down, and related products 0.0067 0.0137 0.0106 29 Information transmission, computer 0.0234 0.0142 0.0123
services, and software
9 Timber processing and furniture manufacturing 0.0107 0.0127 0.0103 30 Wholesale and retail trade 0.0754 0.0463 0.0759
10 Papermaking and Paper Products 0.0344 0.0344 0.0288 31 Accommodation and catering 0.0134 0.0127 0.0082
11 Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing 0.0654 0.1133 0.1007 32 Finance and insurance 0.0489 0.0519 0.0811
12 Chemical 0.1441 0.1721 0.1975 33 Real estate 0.0089 0.0123 0.0154
13 Non-metal mineral products 0.0188 0.0310 0.0356 34 Leasing and business services 0.0259 0.0258 0.0434
14 Metal smelting and rolling processing 0.0694 0.1226 0.1243 35 Tourism 0.0017 0.0038 0
15 Metal products 0.0214 0.0278 0.0269 36 Research and technology services 0.0008 0.0093 0.0206
16 General and special equipment manufacturing 0.0485 0.0713 0.0511 37 Comprehensive technical services 0.0059 0.0021 0.0025
17 Transportation equipment manufacturing 0.0568 0.0887 0.0848 38 Other social services 0.0113 0.0191 0.0144
18 Electrical, mechanical, and equipment manufacturing 0.0241 0.0378 0.0307 39 Education 0.0031 0.0027 0.0013
19 Communications equipment, computers, and Other 0.0315 0.0354 0.0334 40 Health, social security, and social welfare 0.0021 0.0028 0.0004
electronic equipment manufacturing
20 Instrumentation and cultural office machinery 0.0075 0.0121 0.0082 41 Culture, sports, and entertainment 0.0035 0.0041 0.0037
manufacturing
21 Other manufacturing 0.0053 0.0056 0.0019 42 Public management and social organisation 0.0000 0.0005 0.0016
Total 1.2487 1.6030 1.6543

4.2. Production-inducing effect 4.3. Supply shortage effect

The sectoral impacts of marine investment are summarised in Table 6 and Table 7 show the sectoral maritime supply shortage
Table 4 and Table 5. From Table 4, one can see that, when the in- costs in 2002, 2007, and 2012. As Table 6 reveals, if the outputs of the
vestment of marine sectors increases by $1 in 2002, 2007, and 2012, entire marine sectors decrease by $1, the costs of output loss in the
the production-inducing impacts on other sectors are $1.2487, $1.6030, other industrial sectors are $1.4276, $1.8881, and $1.9618, respec-
and $1.6543, respectively. According to the marine industry's gross tively. Therefore, assuming that the 12 major marine sectors disappear,
output value, it can be calculated that the total production-inducing the total outputs of other sectors in China would reduce by $191 billion,
impacts of the marine sectors’ investment are $167 billion, $592 billion, $697 billion, and $1455 billion, respectively. Additionally, the influ-
and $1227 billion, respectively. ence of the marine industry is greatest on the chemical sector (No. 12),
Table 5 shows that the three key production-inducing marine sec- construction (No. 26), and metal smelting and rolling processing (No.
tors are coastal tourism, marine transportation, and marine ship- 14).
building. For example, in 2012, when the investment in the marine Table 7 shows the losses of individual marine sector when faced
industry increases by $1, the production-inducing impact of the marine with a marine supply shortage. For example, when the supply of the
sectors is $1.6543; this includes marine fishery ($0.1195), offshore oil marine industry reduces by $1 in 2012, the supply shortage impact on
and gas ($0.0535), oceanic mining ($0.0047), marine salt ($0.0101), the marine sectors is $1.9618; this includes marine fishery ($0.2111),
marine chemical ($0.1774), marine biological pharmaceutical offshore oil and gas ($0.4219), marine mining ($0.0170), marine salt
($0.0389), marine power ($0.0105), seawater utilisation ($0.0007), ($0.0073), marine chemical ($0.2295), marine biological pharmaceu-
marine shipbuilding ($0.3093), marine engineering construction tical ($0.0503), marine power ($0.0182), seawater utilisation
($0.1699), marine transportation ($0.3698), and coastal tourism ($0.0007), marine shipbuilding ($0.1194), marine engineering con-
($0.3900). Overall, the marine industry is strongly influenced by both struction ($0.0089), marine transportation ($0.5082), and coastal
primary and secondary industry in China's national economy. tourism ($0.3693). It can be observed that the shortages in the marine
transportation, offshore oil and gas, and coastal tourism sectors will
have relatively serious impacts on the economy.

Table 5
4.4. Employment-inducing effect
Production-inducing effects on each marine sector in China.
Marine sectors 2002 2007 2012 Table 8 and Table 9 show direct and indirect employment-inducing
impacts of all sectors. Table 8 shows that, when total demand of the
Marine fishery 0.1861 0.1303 0.1195
Offshore oil and gas 0.0345 0.0606 0.0535 marine sectors increases by $1 million in 2002, 2007, and 2012, the
Oceanic mining 0.0007 0.0010 0.0047 figures for inducing employment are 165, 94, and 58, respectively. The
Marine salt 0.0130 0.0138 0.0101 result shows a significant downward trend and it means that the labour
Marine chemical 0.1186 0.0957 0.1774
mode of China's marine sectors’ development is changing from pro-
Marine biological pharmaceutical 0.0104 0.0183 0.0389
Marine power 0.0019 0.0015 0.0105 duction-intensive to technology-intensive. Additionally, it can be esti-
Seawater utilisation 0.0005 0.0005 0.0007 mated that the number of people employed by the marine and marine-
Marine shipbuilding 0.0819 0.2372 0.3093 related industries is 24.50 million, 35.72 million, and 46.10 million,
Marine engineering construction 0.1125 0.1331 0.1699 respectively, the proportions of which in China's total population are
Marine transportation 0.2545 0.4066 0.3698
3.32%, 4.64%, and 6.01%, respectively.
Coastal tourism 0.4340 0.5044 0.3900
Total 1.2487 1.603 1.6543 Table 9 presents the employment-inducing effects on a single
marine sector. Of all the marine sectors, the marine fishery sector has

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Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

Table 6
Supply shortage effects of China's marine sectors.
No. Sector 2002 2007 2012 No. Sector 2002 2007 2012
1 Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery 0.1006 0.0731 0.0715 22 Waste scrap 0.0000 0.0013 0.0017
2 Coal mining and dressing 0.0122 0.0186 0.0157 23 Electricity, heat production and supply 0.0246 0.0556 0.0443
3 Petroleum and natural gas extraction 0.0054 0.0115 0.0061 24 Gas production and supply 0.0024 0.0049 0.0085
4 Metals’ mining and dressing 0.0061 0.0146 0.0138 25 Water production and supply 0.0015 0.0017 0.0014
5 Non-metal minerals’ mining and dressing 0.0076 0.0100 0.0069 26 Construction 0.1421 0.1646 0.1569
6 Food products and tobacco processing 0.0897 0.1241 0.1321 27 Transportation and warehousing 0.0682 0.0669 0.0955
7 Textile 0.0515 0.0664 0.0531 28 Postal 0.0025 0.0019 0.0014
8 Leather, furs, down, and related products 0.0334 0.0437 0.0375 29 Information transmission, computer 0.0144 0.0136 0.0180
services, and software
9 Timber processing and furniture manufacturing 0.0222 0.0279 0.0258 30 Wholesale and retail trade 0.0652 0.0655 0.0403
10 Papermaking and Paper Products 0.0322 0.0329 0.0376 31 Accommodation and catering 0.0218 0.0180 0.0110
11 Petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing 0.0713 0.0980 0.1201 32 Finance and insurance 0.0222 0.0308 0.0551
12 Chemical 0.1344 0.1849 0.2216 33 Real estate 0.0141 0.0106 0.0153
13 Non-metal mineral products 0.0276 0.0525 0.0601 34 Leasing and business services 0.0194 0.0388 0.0562
14 Metal smelting and rolling processing 0.0635 0.1263 0.1231 35 Tourism 0.0054 0.0033 0
15 Metal products 0.0260 0.0381 0.0381 36 Research and technology services 0.0029 0.0096 0.0336
16 General and special equipment manufacturing 0.0560 0.0825 0.0897 37 Comprehensive technical services 0.0087 0.0041 0.0077
17 Transportation equipment manufacturing 0.0502 0.0997 0.1129 38 Other social services 0.0213 0.0181 0.0159
18 Electrical, mechanical, and equipment manufacturing 0.0343 0.0604 0.0634 39 Education 0.0221 0.0279 0.0143
19 Communications equipment, computers, and Other 0.0517 0.0829 0.0722 40 Health, social security, and social welfare 0.0180 0.0261 0.0267
electronic equipment manufacturing
20 Instrumentation and cultural office machinery 0.0077 0.0106 0.0064 41 Culture, sports, and entertainment 0.0061 0.0060 0.0059
manufacturing
21 Other manufacturing 0.0104 0.0151 0.0036 42 Public management and social organisation 0.0508 0.0451 0.0410
Total 1.4276 1.8881 1.9618

Table 7 the highest employment-inducing effect. For example, in 2012, the


Supply shortage effects on each marine sector in China. proportion of employees in the marine fishery sector is 45.70%. The
Marine sectors 2002 2007 2012
coastal tourism and marine transportation sectors are also observed to
be a significant impetus to improve employment. The top three sectors
Marine fishery 0.2195 0.2100 0.2111 induced by the marine sectors are the agriculture, forestry, animal
Offshore oil and gas 0.2220 0.3449 0.4219 husbandry, and fishery sector (No.1); the food manufacturing and to-
Oceanic mining 0.0019 0.0029 0.0170
bacco processing sector (No. 6); and the chemical sector (No. 12).
Marine salt 0.0066 0.0092 0.0073
Marine chemical 0.1767 0.1285 0.2295
Marine biological pharmaceutical 0.0155 0.0246 0.0503
Marine power 0.0042 0.0027 0.0182 4.5. Total contribution effect
Seawater utilisation 0.0009 0.0008 0.0007
Marine shipbuilding 0.0622 0.1237 0.1194 Table 10 shows the temporal comparisons of the total contribution
Marine engineering construction 0.0069 0.0030 0.0089
Marine transportation 0.3955 0.5845 0.5082
of marine sectors in China; these are the sum of production-inducing
Coastal tourism 0.3157 0.4533 0.3693 effects and supply shortage effects [15]. It can be estimated that, when
Total 1.4276 1.8881 1.9618 the outputs of China's marine industry increase by $1, the total con-
tribution of marine sectors to China's national economy is $2.6763,

Table 8
Employment-inducing effects of China's marine sectors (Unit: person/$ million).
No. Sector 2002 2007 2012 No. Sector 2002 2007 2012
1 Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery 29.78 16.67 9.79 22 Waste scrap 0.37 0.49 0.15
2 Coal mining and dressing 2.69 1.42 1.08 23 Electricity, heat production and supply 6.09 5.08 2.31
3 Petroleum and natural gas extraction 4.36 2.84 1.46 24 Gas production and supply 0.17 0.12 0.16
4 Metals’ mining and dressing 0.82 0.77 0.47 25 Water production and supply 0.38 0.14 0.06
5 Non-metal minerals’ mining and dressing 0.68 0.41 0.33 26 Construction 1.37 0.16 0.27
6 Food products and tobacco processing 14.42 12.78 10.14 27 Transportation and warehousing 9.63 3.17 2.46
7 Textile 1.26 0.78 0.65 28 Postal 0.23 0.11 0.05
8 Leather, furs, down, and related products 0.69 0.52 0.32 29 Information transmission, computer services, 2.42 0.80 0.39
and software
9 Timber processing and furniture manufacturing 1.31 0.55 0.24 30 Wholesale and retail trade 9.98 2.86 2.89
10 Papermaking and Paper Products 3.68 1.67 1.03 31 Accommodation and catering 1.45 0.62 0.25
11 Petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing 7.99 4.71 2.92 32 Finance and insurance 6.83 2.61 2.54
12 Chemical 21.76 14.46 7.59 33 Real estate 1.00 0.50 0.54
13 Non-metal mineral products 1.90 1.16 0.73 34 Leasing and business services 2.82 1.26 1.36
14 Metal smelting and rolling processing 6.52 4.25 2.20 35 Tourism 0.11 0.25 0.00
15 Metal products 2.36 1.32 0.60 36 Research and technology services 0.11 0.85 0.63
16 General and special equipment manufacturing 5.60 2.97 1.23 37 Comprehensive technical services 1.17 0.23 0.11
17 Transportation equipment manufacturing 5.56 2.41 1.16 38 Other social services 1.49 0.94 0.42
18 Electrical, mechanical, and equipment manufacturing 2.45 1.47 0.66 39 Education 0.39 0.17 0.04
19 Communications equipment, computers, and Other electronic 3.46 1.51 0.77 40 Health, social security, and social welfare 0.26 0.18 0.01
equipment manufacturing
20 Instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing 0.79 0.55 0.18 41 Culture, sports, and entertainment 0.32 0.15 0.14
21 Other manufacturing 0.64 0.31 0.06 42 Public management and social organisation 0.00 0.04 0.05
Total 165.32 94.29 58.47

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Y. Wang, N. Wang Marine Policy 99 (2019) 42–49

Table 9 investment planning and to evaluate the benefits of marine projects.


Employment-inducing effects on each marine sector in China (Unit: The analysis indicates that a large part of the investment in marine
person/$ million). sectors is spent on primary and secondary sectors, like the agriculture,
Marine sectors 2002 2007 2012 forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector and the chemical sector.
Reasonable distribution of marine production costs may contribute to
Marine fishery 97.5 64.97 26.72 these sectors’ development.
Offshore oil and gas 1.58 1.83 0.52
The supply-driven model is a hypothetical extraction method to
Oceanic mining 0.09 0.03 0.09
Marine salt 0.22 0.12 0.03 simulate the impacts of complete disappearance of the marine sectors
Marine chemical 2.56 0.57 0.49 on China's economy. This model is used to examine a scenario where
Marine biological pharmaceutical 0.23 0.11 0.11 the marine industry's production is insufficient. The top three sectors —
Marine power 0.05 0.01 0.04
chemical, construction, and food manufacturing and tobacco processing
Seawater utilisation 0.06 0.04 0.02
Marine shipbuilding 2.16 2.25 1.57
— would suffer the most serious losses. Meanwhile, when managing a
Marine engineering construction 5.21 2.99 2.84 tight budget for marine projects, the government could give priority to
Marine transportation 26.79 9.34 7.46 the individual marine sectors like marine transportation, offshore oil
Coastal tourism 28.87 12.01 18.58 and gas, and coastal tourism sectors within 12 marine sectors. The
Total 165.32 94.29 58.47
supply-driven model is a reliable basis to design different scenarios in
different levels of marine economic policies.
The employment-inducing model shows that the marine economy is
Table 10
Total contribution effects of China's marine sectors. shifting from a labour-intensive marine industry to a technology-in-
tensive one. Nevertheless, the marine industry shows a strong effect on
Marine sectors 2002 2007 2012 employment, with more marine professionals being trained. When
Marine fishery 0.4056 0.3403 0.3306 managing investment policy and project selection, the government
Offshore oil and gas 0.2565 0.4055 0.4754 could develop high employment-inducing marine sectors, such as
Oceanic mining 0.0026 0.0039 0.0217 coastal tourism, to create additional job opportunities.
Marine salt 0.0196 0.023 0.0174 The temporal analysis shows that marine sectors play an increas-
Marine chemical 0.2953 0.2242 0.4069
Marine biological pharmaceutical 0.0259 0.0429 0.0892
ingly important role in China from 2002 to 2012. The total contribution
Marine power 0.0061 0.0042 0.0287 of the marine sectors shows a significant increase in this decade, but the
Seawater utilisation 0.0014 0.0013 0.0013 growth rate slows down between 2007 and 2012. This may be caused
Marine shipbuilding 0.1441 0.3609 0.4287 by the lack of new marine economic motivation in the process of
Marine engineering construction 0.1194 0.1361 0.1788
China's marine restructuring. Another reason may be the global fi-
Marine transportation 0.6500 0.9911 0.8780
Coastal tourism 0.7497 0.9577 0.7593 nancial crisis of 2007–2008. The government must prioritise the con-
Total 2.6763 3.4911 3.6161 struction of marine infrastructure because of a tight budget. However,
investment in coastal real estate and oil and gas exploration is reduced,
and there are some recessions in the marine fishery, marine mining,
$3.4911, and $3.6161 respectively. Overall, the marine sectors’ total marine transportation, and coastal tourism activities. In return, with the
contribution shows a marked increase between 2002 and 2007, after promotion of a series of marine regulations, such as positive marine
which the figure increases slightly between 2007 and 2012. trade, and the development of a “blue economy”, the marine economy
Given the marine industrial structure, the coastal tourism and is gradually recovering. Maritime activities help alleviate the global
marine transportation sectors continue to be the leading sectors of the economic downturn.
marine industry, having the greatest influence on the national This study examines the feasibility of using I–O analysis to study the
economy, and some emerging sectors, such as the offshore oil and gas, economic contribution of China's marine industry and to provide a
the marine chemical, and the marine shipbuilding sectors, also make an number of economic indicators that may be applied to formulate policy
increasingly significant contribution to the national economy. By con- for China's marine economy. The aim of the study is to assess the value
trast, the impacts of traditional sectors, such as marine fishery, marine of both direct and indirect contribution of China's marine industry;
salt, and seawater utilisation, show a downturn trend. however, it only considers the benefits of marine economy activities.
Therefore, in future research, factors such as marine environmental
5. Policy implications and conclusions pollution and shortage of ocean resources should be taken into con-
sideration to examine both the advantageous and disadvantageous
To explore the importance of the marine industry in China's national impacts of the marine industry on the national economy.
economy, this study uses the I–O model to evaluate 12 marine sectors
and analyses the evolution of marine industrial structure in the 21st References
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