Probability – Day 2

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑤𝑎𝑛𝑡

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑠

As you have learned by this time, when you are counting AND = multiply and OR = add. This also
applies to probability.
ex 1: What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads OR tails?
1
𝑃(heads) =
2
1
𝑃(tails) =
2
1 1
𝑃(heads OR tails) = 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) + 𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = + = 1. 𝑇ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 100% 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒.
2 2

ex 2: What is the probability of drawing a king OR a queen from a standard deck of cards?
There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a deck.
4
𝑃(king) =
52
4
𝑃(queen) =
52
4 4 8 2
𝑃(king OR queen) = 𝑃(king) + 𝑃(queen) = + = = ≈ 15.4%
52 52 52 13
Another way to look at this problem is to realize that is 8 possible cards (king or queen).
8 2
So, 𝑃(king OR queen) = = again.
52 13

ex 3: What is the probability of drawing the queen of hearts from a standard deck?
There are two ways to approach this problem.
4 13 1
One way to look at: 𝑃(queen AND heart) = 𝑃(queen) ∙ 𝑃(heart) = 52 ∙ 52 = 52
1
Another way: 𝑃(queen of hearts) = 52
When a probability question has multiple events and contains the word AND then you are
introduced to independent and dependent probability.
independent – no event outcome is affected by another outcome
ex: flip a coin and roll a die
ex: draw a card from a deck, put it back and then draw another card

dependent – some outcome depends on a previous outcome.

ex: draw a card from a deck, hang onto it and then another card from what remains
ex: use only 0 – 9 to make a certain lock combo without repeating any numbers

ex 4: What is the probability of getting tails on a coin flip and rolling a multiple of 3 on a die?
This is independent because neither outcome is affected by the other event.
1 2 1
𝑃(tails and 3 or 6) = P(tails) and P(3 or 6) = ∙ =
2 6 6

ex 5: What is the probability of drawing a 10 and then drawing another 10 (without

replacement)? This is dependent probability because the probability of your second event
(another ten) is affected by the first event.
4
𝑃(first card ten) =
52
3
𝑃(second card ten) =
51
(This is because the deck has one less card in it.)

𝑃(first card ten and second card ten) = P(first ten) ∙ 𝑃(second ten)
4 3
= ∙
52 51
12
= ≈ 0.0045 ≈ 0.45%
2652