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Solar thermal process heat in fishmeal production: Prospects for two South African
fishmeal factories
PII: S0959-6526(19)34688-8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119818
Reference: JCLP 119818
Please cite this article as: Oosthuizen D, Goosen NJ, Hess S, Solar thermal process heat in fishmeal
production: Prospects for two South African fishmeal factories, Journal of Cleaner Production (2020),
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119818.
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a
Department of Process Engineering, Stellenbosch University, South Africa. Email:
Oosthuizen.dewald@gmail.com
b
Corresponding author: Department of Process Engineering, Stellenbosch University, South Africa.
Private Bag X1, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa; Mobile: +27834735629; Fax: +27218082059;
Email: njgoosen@sun.ac.za
c
Department of Sustainable Systems Engineering – INATECH, Albert-Ludwigs Universität
Abstract
Fishmeal production may lend itself to integration of solar thermal heating due to favourable
heating temperature requirements, high heat demand, and production plants being located in high
solar irradiance areas for many countries, especially South Africa. Despite these potential
compatibilities, and the potential to reduce fossil fuel consumption by switching to a renewable
energy heating source, very little work has been done to determine the feasibility of solar thermal
heat integration into existing fishmeal production plants. This study focuses on fishmeal production
as a potential process for integrating industrial solar thermal heat, and aims to determine
preliminary feasibility of solar thermal heat integration into two existing South African fishmeal
plants. They differ according to scale of operation, production route, physical location, heating fuel,
1
and the type of raw material processed. The studied factories are a good representation of the
different locations and operating conditions that could be expected within the South African
307 kg/h and requires 2,988 MJ from heavy fuel oil per 1,000 kg raw material, while Factory B
produces fishmeal from pelagic fish species at a rate of 6,276 kg/h and requires 1,796 MJ from
coal per 1,000 kg raw material. The method followed identifies areas of heating inefficiency and
opportunities for solar process heat integration, followed by preliminary economic analyses for
possible implementations to determine economic viability. The study shows that in both factories,
preheating the raw material stream to 70 °C is an attractive option that could utilise solar thermal
heating and noticeably reduce fossil fuel consumption. For Factory A, the most attractive option is
a solar thermal raw material preheating system with 384 m2 flat-plate collector area, resulting in a
solar fraction of 0.81 for this process. Factory A’s relatively constant monthly heat demand and the
high cost of heavy fuel oil being used were the greatest contributors to viability; indicated by a net
present value of R 3.3 million for this particular system. For factory B, none of the investigated
solar heating systems is found to be economically viable. This is due to the low cost of coal and
the seasonal heat demand profile, with no demand from November to January and a maximum
during winter months, when solar irradiation is at its lowest. The study concludes that fishmeal
production processes have potential for solar thermal heat integration, but suitability and viability
Keywords
Solar thermal; Process heat; Heat recovery; Fishmeal production; Energy efficiency
2
1 Introduction
Solar thermal heating is a promising renewable energy technology for the on-site provision of
process heat, and it has already found application in a range of industrial processes (Islam et al.,
2013; Kalogirou, 2003; Mekhilef et al., 2011). Globally, industrial heat demand is responsible for a
significant portion of energy consumption, and utilising renewable solar energy to supply process
heat can lead to significant reductions in non-renewable fossil fuel consumption (Farjana et al.,
2018; Kalogirou, 2003; Schnitzer et al., 2007). Solar thermal heating is particularly suited to
industrial applications where the required temperatures are in the range of 20 °C – 200 °C, and
even more so for temperatures below 100 °C; these temperature ranges are often encountered in
industries processing biological materials and foods (Schmitt, 2016; Schnitzer et al., 2007). The
integration of solar thermal heating into existing industries can play an important role in replacing a
portion of fossil fuel-derived industrial process heat (Baniassadi et al., 2018). By the end of 2018,
at least 741 solar thermal process heat plants were in operation worldwide, with an overall collector
area of 662,648 m² and a thermal power of 567 MW th (Weiss and Spörk-Dür, 2019). The relatively
low costs of fossil fuel-derived energy and high capital expenditures for installing solar thermal
heating systems are aggravating market deployment of solar process heat. Adding to that, a lack
of demonstration systems and best-practice examples has further hampered industrial uptake in
the past (Atkins et al., 2010; Mauthner et al., 2014; Schnitzer et al., 2007).
The fishmeal manufacturing industry is potentially well-suited for utilisation of solar thermal
technology for provision of process heat and thereby replacing a portion of fossil fuel-derived
process energy. The fishmeal production process is energy intensive due to high heat demand for
drying the water-rich feedstock, yet the majority of the heat demand occurs at temperatures well
within the range of solar thermal technology, with multiple unit operations that require heat at
temperatures below 150 °C (Weiss and Spörk-Dür, 2019; Windsor, 2001). Fishmeal manufacture
is also a large and geographically distributed industry with annual production of approximately five
million tonnes (IFFO), and much of the process heat is currently fossil fuel-based energy.
Particular opportunities may be present in some of the largest fishmeal producing countries which
3
are located along coastlines that receive high solar irradiance including Peru, Chile, Morocco and
South Africa. Despite the potential compatibilities between fishmeal production and solar thermal
heating technology, and the possibility to replace fossil fuels, there is a dearth of information on
this topic.
In the South African fishmeal production sector, the integration of solar thermal heating could offer
an important alternative to the use of fossil fuels for production of process heat, as the majority of
heating requirements for fishmeal production are supplied through the burning of coal. Solar
energy is the renewable resource with the greatest potential in South Africa, due to high levels of
irradiation over large parts of the country (Pegels, 2010; WWF, 2017). The annual global
horizontal irradiation can be well above 2,000 kWh/m2 in places, as shown in Figure 1. In South
African terms, the fishmeal industry is substantial with an annual fishmeal output which ranges
between approximately 40,000 and 100,000 tonnes, with output remaining fairly constant at 60,000
– 70,000 tonnes annually between 2006 and 2016 (DAFF, 2016; de Koning, 2005). The majority of
processing operations are located along the South African West Coast, which, as can be seen in
Figure 1, receives high solar irradiation throughout the year and relatively higher irradiation than
the rest of the South African coastline. Despite the potential compatibility of fishmeal
manufacturing operations with solar thermal heating technology in general, and the high-irradiance
location of the majority of South African fishmeal factories in particular, very little consideration
seems to have been given to integrating solar thermal heating into fishmeal production operations.
In light of the above, the current study aims to determine the feasibility of integrating solar thermal
technology for the provision of process heat into two operating South African fishmeal factories.
The two selected factories employ different production processes, utilise different raw materials
and heating fuels, and have significantly different annual production capacity and production rate.
The two factories, Factory A (FA) and Factory B (FB), are both situated along the western coast of
South Africa (cp. Figure 1), where the majority of the fishmeal industry is located (Hara et al.,
2008).
The specific objectives of this study are: i) to develop models describing the mass and energy flow
within the two factories using actual production data collected from the factories; ii) to identify
4
energy inefficiencies within each process, and potential solar thermal integration points; iii) to
quantify the impact of implementing solar thermal technology on the energy and fuel requirements
of the factories and iv) to investigate the economic feasibility of solar thermal technology in the two
specifically studied factories by performing a preliminary economic analysis for different solar
thermal systems. From this, a first general assessment of solar process heat for the South African
2 Methods
The study is based on actual plant data collected from two South African fishmeal factories that
differ according to scale of operation, production route, physical location, heating fuel, and the type
of raw material processed. The particular factories are chosen to represent the different operating
conditions and locations that could be expected within the South African fishmeal industry. The
use of real plant data for the investigation is viewed as beneficial, as it decreases the uncertainty in
potentially making the results of the study relevant to fishmeal operations outside of South Africa,
and because accurate knowledge of the heat load for which solar thermal systems are designed is
crucial to predict the performance of solar thermal heating systems (Lauterbach et al., 2014).
The study is approached as follows: each fishmeal plant is described and characterised using real
plant data to establish base case material and energy balance models, after which opportunities for
heat recovery and/or integration of solar thermal process heat into existing operations is
investigated by simulating the applicable heating system and changes to production parameters,
and the potential impacts on base case operations are quantified. The performance of solar
process heat systems with different solar collector field sizes is then assessed, and finally a
preliminary economic analysis is performed to estimate the economic feasibility of the identified
5
2.1 Defining and characterising the base case processes
Development of a base case process is required to study energy efficiency aspects of existing
operations in order to have a reference against which to compare different process modifications,
and is the first step of this investigation. Base case processes need to reflect the current process
configuration, and should contain the relevant process information (Mateos-Espejel et al., 2011).
During the study, base case processes were developed following factory site visits where
information on operating schedules were obtained, and relevant data were collected. Data
included production volumes, heating fuel consumption, and composition of raw material and
product in terms of ash, crude lipid, crude protein and moisture contents. Process flow diagrams
(PFD’s) for each factory were constructed, and mass and energy balances set up using Microsoft
Excel 2016. Energy requirements for heating the raw material were calculated according to the
polynomial model for specific heat of food components by Choi and Okos (1986) as presented in
ASHRAE (2014). The steam production system for each process was simulated using Aspen Plus
V8.8 software.
The combined mass and energy balances and steam system simulation represented the base
case process of each factory. The base case process of FA consists of a preheating stage from
8 °C to 45 °C, followed by a single cooking and drying stage where the product exits at 117 °C.
The base case process of FB consists of a cooking stage where materials exit at 99 °C, followed
by screens, presses and centrifuges that separate the solids, water, and oil. The dissolved solids
in the separated water is concentrated in a multi-effect evaporator and then added back to the
main stream before the first and second drying stages, with exit temperatures of 90 °C and 97 °C
respectively. Steam at 176 °C is used as energy carrier in both factories, and is supplied with
boilers that consume heavy fuel oil (HFO) in FA and coal in FB. Block flow diagrams of the base
case processes are shown in Appendix Figure 1 and 2, and the results of defining and
characterising the base case processes are presented in section 3.1. These base case processes
were used to quantify the effect of altering operating conditions within each process, or when
altering the process for heat recovery and/or solar thermal heat integration.
6
2.2 Identification of heat recovery and solar thermal integration
opportunities
In industrial processes, it is important to determine suitable integration points for solar thermal
heat, as there could be substantial differences between requirements of industrial process heat
and that of more conventional domestic or commercial heating applications (Atkins et al., 2010).
This is accentuated in cases where solar thermal heating systems need to be retrofitted to existing
operations, as there may be inherent incompatibilities between the new system and existing
equipment, or a significant amount of additional equipment and control strategies would need to be
implemented (Schmitt, 2016). A systematic approach of identifying opportunities for solar heat and
heat recovery in non-standard processes was employed in this study, where a non-standard
process was defined as one where information on stream properties or equipment may be
unavailable, or where there are significant constraints on which streams and equipment may be
considered for heat exchange. Based on this definition, the fishmeal and fish oil production
process was classified as a non-standard process, and traditional energy efficiency and heat
integration methods such as pinch analysis were not suitable to determine energy integration
Subsequent to a preliminary on-site assessment of each factory, during which it was determined
that some roof- and/or surrounding ground-level area was available for a solar thermal installation,
and in accordance with the method as proposed by Schmitt (2016), the study progressed to
identifying potential for improving energy efficiency and solar thermal integration points. A three-
step method was employed to aid in identifying heating inefficiencies and opportunities for solar
thermal heat in non-standard production processes. Throughout this process, particular attention
was paid to identify streams and operating units that have temperatures specifically suitable for
solar thermal applications, i.e., those below 150 °C but preferably also below 100 °C, in
i. The first step concerned the equipment used in the process. The method identified
equipment units within the process that acted as heat sinks, determined the operating
7
temperature of the units, and whether there are any constraints on how heat is to be
delivered to the unit, i.e., where the equipment was specifically designed to operate using
e.g. high-pressure steam. Finally, it was determined whether solar thermal technology
would be suitable to provide heat to the particular unit, keeping in mind the limitations of the
ii. The second step identified all streams in the process that could potentially be preheated, as
a means of identifying potential energy integration points and/or integration points for solar
thermal heat into the process. Any stream that entered a unit at a temperature lower than
the operating temperature thereof was labelled as a stream which could potentially be
preheated.
iii. The third step identified streams that exit the process at relatively high temperatures, as
thermal energy could potentially be recovered from these streams. Any streams which exit
the process at temperatures which are at least 10 °C higher than any stream that requires
heating could be used for heat recovery, provided that the physical properties and physical
The advantages of the above method are that it can be employed fairly rapidly, and that it can be
performed with only a basic understanding of the process flow and the operating temperatures of
unit operations and streams. It is not comprehensive and would be inadequate for more complex
production processes, however, for fairly small facilities and for obtaining preliminary information
on the potential for integration of solar process heat into a facility, it provides useful initial
information.
Subsequent to collecting process data and identifying potential solar thermal integration points,
further general and site-specific information and constraints were considered for choosing which
type of solar thermal collector technology to employ. A major consideration which became
apparent was the reluctance by the operations studied to consider high-cost heating systems
which may add complexity to the factories’ operation and control, or those requiring the
industrial applications is a relatively new approach in South Africa, with little technical experience in
Generally, solar process heat can be integrated into a production facility at heat supply level (i.e.
into the steam network) or at process level (i.e. into selected production processes via heat
exchangers). The efficiency of solar thermal collectors decreases with increasing operating
temperature. Collectors that enable steam production have to track the sun (one-axis or two-axis
tracking) and they can only convert beam irradiance into useful heat. They are more complex to
install and have a higher operation and maintenance effort than flat-plate collectors (Horta, 2015).
It is therefore desirable to apply non-tracking collectors and operate them at the lowest possible
temperatures to maximise the efficiency (Schnitzer et al., 2007). Low temperature collectors have
already reached a high stage of development, being regarded today as commercially available
technologies, and flat-plate collectors specifically are regarded as low maintenance, inexpensive
and mechanically simple equipment (Horta, 2015; Weiss and Spörk-Dür, 2019). Adding to that,
steam producing collectors usually do not have steam storage due to the high costs, so the
generated steam can only be utilized when the processes consume steam, i.e. if the steam
demand profile matches solar steam generation well. In contrast, hot water storage tanks with
temperatures up to 95 °C are standard components, allowing for a certain mismatch of solar heat
generation and process heat demand. Due to these reasons, coupled with space constraints at
the existing facilities, the decision was taken to limit the investigation to using flat-plate collectors
for both factories, and not to consider solar steam generation for the current study. Flat-plates
were chosen due to their simplicity of design and operation, their lower costs compared to
alternative systems and the fact that glazed and unglazed flat-plate collectors are the most often
Solar thermal system sizing was based on the expected solar irradiation resources available at the
respective locations of the facilities studied, as determined using a typical meteorological year
location over several years, and is well suited to planning a solar process heat system (Kalogirou,
9
2003). TMY data were obtained from Meteonorm 7 (V7.1.11.24422), and the total radiation per
month on a specified plane was obtained from the TMY file and used to calculate the possible
The total heat produced by the solar thermal system in a specific month (Qdelivered,j), was obtained
by multiplying the solar irradiation of that month (Gtotal,j) with the total solar thermal collector gross
area (Acoll) and an average monthly solar thermal system efficiency (ηsys), see Equation 1. The
solar thermal system efficiency accounts for thermal and optical losses in the collectors and for
heat losses in the hydraulic and storage system. It is the fraction of solar irradiation which is
converted into useful heat, i.e. the share of solar radiant energy converted and transferred to the
process. For this first preliminary study a constant, overall system efficiency of 45 % was
assumed, in accordance with the results of Joubert et al. (2016) for solar thermal process heat
generation with flat-plate collectors in South Africa at similar system operation temperatures. A
constant efficiency throughout the year will underestimate the performance of the system in
summer compared to winter. The higher irradiation and ambient temperatures of summer result in
, [ ℎ] = , [ ℎ/ ]× [ ]× [−] Equation 1
Two different methods of estimating the solar thermal collector area gross were used in this study:
Option A) minimized the difference between solar heat supply and solar heat demand over an
entire year, and Option B) ensured no excess heat was produced during months when fishmeal
production takes place at the studied facilities. During these estimations, it was assumed that
thermal storage was available, enabling all solar heat produced during a particular month to be
utilised within the same month. Excess energy was not carried over to any of the following months
as it was assumed that thermal storage would only be sufficient to store energy for a few of hours,
The absolute total difference between heat supply and demand (Qtotal difference) was calculated by
taking the sum of the absolute values of the difference between solar heat delivered and solar heat
demand (Qdemand,j) for each month (j), see Equation 2. The total collector gross area for Option A
was determined using the GRG Nonlinear solving method (Microsoft Excel 2016) to find the value
10
which minimised the absolute total difference. For Option B, the solar collector area which resulted
in no excess heat being produced during months of fishmeal production was used.
[ ℎ] = ! | , [ ℎ] − # , [ ℎ]| Equation 2
%$
The solar fraction (SF) is the fraction of required heat that is provided by the solar heat system.
The SF was calculated using the annual heat demand from solar (Qdemand) and the total auxiliary
heat that was additionally required from fossil fuels (Qaux), see Equation 3.
# [ ℎ] − () [ ℎ]
&'[−] = Equation 3
# [ ℎ]
Any feasibility study on solar thermal heating implementation must include an economic study
(Kalogirou, 2004). The feasibility of solar thermal technology for process heat depends on the
initial cost of the system, the cost of the fuel replaced (Kalogirou, 2003) and the change in fuel cost
over the expected life of the project (Joubert et al., 2016). The profitability of a solar thermal
installation is dependent mainly on the investment costs, which in turn are mostly determined by
A preliminary economic study for each of the identified scenarios was performed, with the
parameters used in this study shown in Table 1. The system lifetime was taken as 20 years, with
annual inflation taken to be constant at 6 %, equal to the upper bound of the South African
Reserve Bank’s inflation target, which is considered to be a conservative estimate of the long-term
local inflation rate. All capital expenditures were assumed to be paid in year zero, and consisted
only of the solar process heat system costs, calculated with an average specific cost of
603 EUR/m2, which is the average cost calculated by Joubert et al. (2016) from consolidated cost
data for 47 large scale solar heating systems (total solar collector area > 10 m2) installed in South
Africa. This average price is based on a variety of system configurations and includes the cost of
components, commissioning, the planning performed by the solar thermal system supplier, and
maintenance plans. Future maintenance is only a small contribution to the total system cost
(Joubert et al., 2016). When using the equivalent of 700 W thermal power per m2 of gross collector
11
area (Weiss and Spörk-Dür, 2019), this results in investment costs of 0,86 EUR/W of solar thermal
The South African solar process heat industry is still in its development stage and specific system
costs may vary significantly between different applications, and even between different tenders for
the same application (Joubert et al., 2016). As such, barring a detailed design and costing to
African solar thermal installation costs. The cost data of Joubert et al. (2016) is still considered to
be the most accurate, since it is the most recent study of large and industrial scale solar thermal
For the purposes of this study, the only annual income considered was the cost saved due to
reduced fossil-fuel consumption. The HFO price per litre was acquired from local suppliers, and
that of coal from GEM Commodities World Bank Group (2017). The expected annual cost
increases for the fossil fuels were obtained from Joubert et al. (2016). Annual operating and
additional maintenance costs were not considered. Accurate estimates of these would require
detailed system designs, while they are typically not major factors in determining economic
viability. Decommissioning and end-of-life costs were ignored due to insufficient information for the
South African solar process heat systems. The Euro to Rand exchange rate was R 14.03 for FA
and R 15.20 for FB at the specific times when the costs for the different factories were calculated.
Parameter Value
Inflation (d) 6.00 %
System lifetime (N) 20 years
HFO cost per litre R 7.41
HFO annual cost increase 10.0 %
Coal cost per metric ton R 998.81
Coal annual cost increase 8.80 %
The net present value (NPV) is defined as the cumulative discounted cash position at the end of
the lifetime of a specific project (Turton et al., 2013). The NPV is calculated by taking the sum of
the annual cash flows (Cn) discounted to time zero at a specific inflation rate (d) over the life of the
project (N) see Equation 4. The internal rate of return (IRR), another parameter used to evaluate
12
the economic viability of a project, is also calculated with Equation 4. The IRR is that discount rate
(d) at which the NPV of an investment is zero, if the IRR is greater than the internal discount rate
acceptable to a specific company, then a project is deemed profitable (Joubert et al., 2016; Turton
et al., 2013).
5
. [-]
*+, [-] = ! Equation 4
(1 + 2[−]) [4]
%6
The levelized cost of heat (LCOH) is a parameter that provides an estimate of the cost of heat
supplied by a heating system over its lifetime and is commonly used in the description of potential
solar process heat systems. The LCOH is only dependent on the cost of the system, therefore,
costs savings resulting from the reduced fuel consumption are not included (Joubert et al., 2016).
The LCOH is calculated as the ratio of the discounted system costs and the discounted solar heat
produced — only the solar heat utilised by the specific factory was considered in the calculation.
Only capital costs were included as system costs since the economic model used in this study
lumped all costs with the capital cost paid at the start. The resulting LCOH equation is shown with
Equation 5.
The results are presented in this section as follows: the base case processes of both factories are
presented first, then identified opportunities for heat recovery and solar thermal integration, a
preliminary sizing of possible solar thermal systems follows, and finally the economic viability of the
The facilities studied each had unique features in terms of production throughput, annual operating
hours, process layout, raw material processed, and the type of fuel used. FA employs a unique
13
production method producing fishmeal mostly from by-products from white-fish processing, and it
has a low annual throughput (approximately 6,900 tonnes of raw material). FB has a much higher
throughput relative to FA (60,000 tonnes of raw material processed per annum) and produces both
fishmeal and fish oil using exclusively pelagic fish caught off the West Coast of South Africa. The
high production volume requires considerable energy for cooking and drying and is supplied
through fossil fuel combustion (mainly coal) in the current process. Reductions in fuel consumption
could result in significant cost savings for the factory since fossil fuels constitute a large portion of
the production costs of FB. The process description and calculations for FA are based on data for
production from September 2015 to September 2016, and the 2016 production period from 15
The production method used by FA is similar to the ‘production without cooking method’ described
by the FAO (1986), with the further simplification that only a single dryer is employed. No oil
separation is performed in the FA process since the raw material utilised contains low levels of
lipids due to the origin of the raw material. The production mode at FA is operated in semi-batch
mode, with each production run being a continuous, 24 hour per day operation which lasted
approximately 5 days (occurring roughly on a weekly basis), depending on the amount of raw
material stored over the preceding week. Once all stored raw material was processed, production
An illustration of the production process of FA under base case operating conditions is shown in
Appendix Figure 1. Raw material enters the production area at 8 °C (stream 1) and is screened for
metal, macerated and preheated to 45 °C before entering the dryer (stream 2). Condensate
exiting the dryer at 128 °C (stream B) is used for preheating the raw material. Dry fishmeal exits
the dryer at 117 °C and a moisture content of 5 % (stream 3), after which it passes through a
hammer mill before final packaging. The vapour stream from the dryer (stream 4) travels through a
seawater condenser and is treated in a chlorine dioxide scrubber, along with airborne dust from the
hammer mill.
FB implements the conventional wet-pressing method (FAO, 1986) of fishmeal and fish oil
production. An illustration of the production process of FB under base case operating conditions is
14
shown in Appendix Figure 2. Pelagic fish species are received directly from the fishing vessels
and transported to storage, from where the raw material is sent to the cookers at ambient
temperature (stream 1), to be heated to 99 °C. Cooked materials (stream 2) are strained and
pressed by twin-screw presses to remove liquids liberated during cooking from the solids, and
solids continue to the dryers (stream 5) while the liquid portion is centrifuged to remove suspended
solids, followed by a further centrifugation step to separate the oil from the aqueous portion. This
aqueous liquid stream (stream 8), known as stickwater, contains proteins which are concentrated
sent to a tank before it is mixed with the press cake and decanter grax, and dried. Drying is
performed in two stages consisting of three dryers in parallel for each stage. The press cake,
decanter grax and 60 % of the stickwater concentrate (streams 6 and 10) are dried in the first
drying stage and exits at 90 °C. The product of the first drying stage (stream 11) and the
remainder of the stickwater concentrate (stream 13) are dried in the second stage and exit at 97 °C
and a final moisture content of 7 % (stream 14). The dry fishmeal is milled using hammer mills to
ensure a uniform particle size, then packaged in either 20 kg or one-tonne bags before being
despatched.
The total energy requirement per unit raw material processed was largely dependent on the
production process of the particular facility. In the case of FA, due to the non-typical production
process which employs no heat recovery from the vapour exiting the dryer and evaporates all
moisture using only a single-stage dryer, the calculated energy requirements of FA of 2,988 MJ per
1,000 kg of raw material were relatively high overall, and substantially higher than for FB. The
value is noticeably higher than the typical maximum value of 2,406 MJ per 1,000 kg raw material
required by Peruvian plants producing ‘fair average quality’ (FAQ) fishmeal (Fréon et al., 2017).
The energy requirements for FAQ meal are higher than that produced using the wet-pressing
method, as direct air dryers are typically used during final drying, which increases energy
requirements. In the case of FB which employs a typical wet-pressing fishmeal production process
with heat recovery, the energy requirements of 1,796 MJ per 1,000 kg of raw material fell between
1,498 MJ per 1,000 kg raw material reported for a Peruvian plant (Fréon et al., 2017), and
15
1,890 MJ per 1,000 kg raw material for a Norwegian plant (Myrvang et al., 2007), both producing
The annual production parameters for the base cases of FA and FB are shown in Table 2. Due to
the different raw materials used and the differences in seasonal availability, the two factories had
very different production schedules and, by extension, heat demands. FA is based on the
processing of by-products which are available almost year round (albeit in smaller quantities), and
was in operation for a large proportion of the year (a total of 5,240 hours), with its heat demand
remaining fairly constant between months. The operations of FB are based on processing of
freshly landed pelagic species, for which there is a tightly regulated fishing season in South Africa
and hence the total production hours of FB are much lower than for FA, at a total of 1,888 hours
during 2016. Heat demand at FB has a strong seasonal dependence, resulting from the volumes
Total fishmeal production rates and fishmeal yields at each facility were in line with expectations
and were a function of the amount and composition of raw materials processed. FA produced a
total of 1,610 tonnes of fishmeal at a yield of 23 %, which compares well to the average yield of
South African fishmeal factories (de Koning, 2005). FB had a much larger total production of
11,850 tonnes of fishmeal (plus 2,849 tonnes of fish oil), but achieved a lower fishmeal yield of
20 %. The lower overall fishmeal yield of FB is explained by raw material composition, as the raw
material fed to FB had a lower protein content (15.5 % for raw material fed to FA compared to
13.1 % for that of FB), coupled with the production method where FA only produced fishmeal as
product, while a portion of the raw material of FB also resulted in the production of fish oil.
Table 2: Summary of annual production parameters of FA and FB according to the base case
processes based on the year 2016.
Parameter Unit FA FB
Total production time Hours 5,240 1,888
Fishmeal produced Tonnes 1,610 11,850
Raw material consumed Tonnes 6,952 60,057
3
FA [m ]
Fuel consumed 525.0 3,922
FB [Tonnes]
Live steam produced Tonnes 7,652 24,907
16
The hourly production parameters for the base cases of FA and FB are shown in Table 3. Average
hourly fishmeal production rates differed substantially and amounted to 307 kg/h and 6,276 kg/h for
FA and FB respectively. Even though FA had overall higher energy requirements per amount of
raw material processed, energy efficiency was better in FA than in FB. Based on the average
hourly values shown in Table 3, FA utilised 72 % of the energy released from combusting HFO,
effectively transferring 2,837 MJ/h of the 3,964 MJ/h released to the raw material, while FB only
utilised 50 % of the energy derived from coal by effectively transferring 28,316 MJ/h of the
57,132 MJ/h released. Upon closer scrutiny, the lower energy efficiency of FB was found to be
due to a less efficient steam recycling system compared to FA, where low amounts of condensate
(28.3 mass %) are recovered and recycled within FB’s production process, leading to high energy
losses. Despite better energy efficiency and higher fishmeal yields, the inherently less-energy
efficient design of FA’s production process resulted in higher steam requirements per 1,000 kg
fishmeal produced: 4,753 kg steam per 1,000 kg fishmeal for FA, vs. 2,102 kg of steam per
1,000 kg fishmeal for FB. The major factor to which this difference can be attributed, is that FB
uses the evaporate from the fishmeal dryers to concentrate the stickwater, recovering a large
amount of heat, a philosophy which is not implemented in the single-pass production process of
FA.
Table 3: Summary of production parameter rates at FA and FB according to the base case processes.
Parameter Unit FA FB
Fishmeal produced kg/h 307 6,276
Raw material consumed kg/h 1,327 31,810
Water removed kg/h 1,019 24,025
[FA] litre/h
Fuel consumed 100 2,078
[FB] kg/h
Live steam produced kg/h 1,460 13,192
Energy transferred to fish material MJ/h 2,837 28,316
Energy from fossil fuels MJ/h 3,964 57,132
This discrepancy between the two facilities’ steam requirements and their energy efficiency, where
FA requires more steam but is more efficient by utilizing a larger proportion of the heat released
from fossil fuel combustion than FB, highlights two important considerations: firstly, that certain
17
process choices and designs are inherently more energy efficient than others, and secondly that
even within inherently efficient processes, large inefficiencies can still occur. It is generally
accepted that one of the cheapest and fastest methods of decreasing environmental impacts of an
operation is to increase efficiency of energy utilisation (Sorrel, 2015), which would in this case, lead
to decreased overall fossil fuel utilisation. Improved energy efficiency can also make significant
contributions to improved competitiveness (Sturm et al., 2015); in this particular case FB could
benefit significantly from improving steam condensate recovery, which would decrease fossil fuel
consumption and make-up water requirements. It is possible that substantial benefits can be
realised through process optimisation and integration (Mauthner et al., 2014; Sturm et al., 2015),
To decrease industrial fossil fuel-based energy consumption in the long term, both energy
efficiency improvement and substitution of fossil fuel-based energy needs to be addressed (Atkins
et al., 2010). The profitability of solar thermal energy systems are determined mainly by their size,
which drives the initial investment costs (Schnitzer et al., 2007). For this reason and those
mentioned in the previous section, energy efficiency studies were performed on each production
facility, after which solar thermal integration points were identified subsequent to the particular
facility’s constraints.
In the case of FA, three cases were investigated (please also refer to the block flow diagram
Appendix Figure 1) Case A1) drying without preheating, Case A2) preheating fish materials to
70 °C using only solar heat, and Case A3) increased preheating of fish materials to 70 °C with
steam condensate. The biggest heat sink in FA’s production process is the dryer, it operates using
medium pressure steam, and solar steam production, for the reasons previously discussed, was
not considered. The warm evaporate stream from the dryer was also not considered for heat
recovery since manipulating it would undermine efficient operation of the condenser and was not
allowed by FA. Although drying without preheating does not improve the energy efficiency of FA, it
was investigated since the current preheating system used within the facility employs steam
18
condensate exiting the dryer, but this conflicts with the efficient operation of the dryer since it
requires a large volume of condensate within the dryer, which decreases heat transfer efficiency
and increases the power required to rotate the dryer. The maximum temperature of the preheating
step was set as 70 °C, as the raw material generally starts cooking at approximately 75 °C (FAO,
Table 4 shows the different energy requirements for FA for each of the investigated cases. Case
A1 required 100 kg/h more steam compared to the base case — which incorporates pre-heating
using condensate — and 3 litre/h more HFO, showing that the existing preheating system does
condensate (and thus energy) recovery from the dryer, and also resulted in the lowest HFO
consumption rate of 92 litre/h. Case A3 resulted in marginally lower HFO consumption compared
to the base case (99 litre/h), but higher consumption than Case A2, since the condensate return
temperature to the boiler was lower, requiring higher energy input to produce steam from the
returning condensate.
Table 4: Energy and fuel requirements for different heat recovery and solar integration scenarios for
FA.
For FB, no further conventional energy recovery could be performed between any streams due to
physical plant layout and distance between locations. Providing solar heat to the cookers or dryers
directly was not possible since they operate using medium pressure steam. The evaporate from
the dryers were also not considered since sufficient heat recovery from it already occurs in the
investigating a set of options where, in each case, a specific stream was identified in the process
19
for heating with energy obtained from a solar thermal heat source: Case B1) preheating raw
mixing with the solids stream, and Case B3) preheating the make-up water to the hot well tank to
75 °C.
The energy requirements for FB for each of the cases are shown in Table 5. Case B1 resulted in
the largest amount of energy obtained from solar thermal sources and the lowest coal and steam
requirements (5,547 MJ/h solar heat, 1,689 kg/h coal consumed, and 10,733 kg/h steam required),
and coal consumption was decreased by 18.7 % relative to the base case process. Both cases B2
and B3 resulted in negligible impacts on the steam produced and only minor impacts on overall
Table 5: Energy and fuel requirements for different solar integration scenarios for FB.
Coal
Energy from Energy from Steam required
Scenario consumed
steam [MJ/h] solar [MJ/h] [kg/h]
[kg/h]
Base case 28,316 0 13,192 2,078
Case B1: Raw
22,769 5,547 10,733 1,689
material preheating
Case B2: Stickwater
concentrate 28,010 306 13,047 2,054
reheating
Case B3: Make-up
28,316 2,197 13,192 1,945
water preheating
For both FA and FB, significant physical and technical constraints were experienced regarding
which heat recovery and solar thermal integration options were practically implementable.
Although these considerations will be specific to each industrial facility, technical challenges and
costs associated with retrofitting existing industrial operations to allow solar thermal heat
integration can be a large barrier to successful implementation of the technology (Fuller, 2011;
Sturm et al., 2015), as was experienced in the current investigation. Despite these constraints,
and assuming that the solar thermal solutions can be implemented successfully, meaningful
reductions in fuel consumption and therefore greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be realised:
8 % for FA and 19 % for FB. From the perspective of the production facilities, the final choice
20
whether to implement solar thermal heating will not lie with fuel savings and GHG emission
mitigation alone, but will be also strongly influenced by the economics of the solution (Fuller, 2011;
Solar heating systems were sized for different options for each production facility. For FA this was
Case A2, which was the only option which incorporated solar thermal heating, while for FB all
For FA, a solar thermal system which minimised the difference between heat demand for raw
material preheating and solar heat supply (Option A) resulted in a total collector area of 384 m2
and had a SF of 0.81, while a system resulting in no excess heat being produced (Option B) had a
total collector area of 337 m2 and a SF of 0.73. These values were based on the available roof
area, with the highest incident radiation at FA being one facing 46 degrees East of North with a
slope of 30 degrees, the annual total irradiation on this plane was 2,130 kWh/m2. The sizing of
both of these options are within realistic ranges for South Africa — meaning that there are already
existing and installed systems that have similar or larger total collector areas (Joubert et al., 2016).
The monthly heat demand and output of the proposed solar thermal systems for preheating the
raw material stream in FA are shown in Figure 2. The heat demand was calculated from the
production schedule and the solar output calculated using solar irradiance and the two methods for
estimating collector area. The heat delivered by Option A was slightly greater than demand during
the beginning and end of the year due to solar irradiation reaching a minimum in June and the heat
demand remaining fairly constant throughout the year. The other proposed solar heating system,
Option B, delivered less heat than the solar heat demand during all months, except January when
From the results it is apparent that the difference in total collector areas for Options A and B do not
differ to a large extent, and can be explained by the fairly evenly distributed nature of the monthly
heat demand in FA. This relatively even heat load makes it possible to size the solar thermal
heating system in such a way as to contribute a large proportion of the required heat for the
21
specified duties during months of high solar irradiation, while having a predictable shortfall during
low irradiation months (typically May to September). Also, for Option A, there is a small excess
amount of heat produced, which could be employed elsewhere within the process during such
times. Even heating load distribution is advantageous for implementing of solar thermal heating
systems, as it is easier to analyse the required system and to size it such that relatively high SF-
The solar collector areas calculated for FB according to the method stated in section 2.3 are shown
in Table 6. Solar thermal system performance was based on the solar irradiation on a plane facing
due North with a slope of 35 degrees, at FB’s location, which had an annual irradiation of
2,258 kWh/m2. The SF’s for Options A and B for the different applications at FB were lower than
that of FA, owing to the heat demand reaching a maximum during April to June when solar
Table 6: Total solar thermal collector areas and solar fractions of the proposed solar heat systems
for the different applications in FB. Option A minimises the difference between solar heat demand
and supply, and Option B produces no excess heat in any of the months of production.
The solar heat demand for preheating the raw material stream at FB, as well as the heat supplied
by the proposed solar heat systems, and the available solar irradiation are shown in Figure 3.
Preheating of the raw material stream in FB with solar heat (Case B1) was used to show the solar
heat demand and supply since it resulted in the greatest reduction in coal consumption (refer to
Table 5). The misaligned nature of available seasonal solar irradiation versus the peak heat
demand at FB is clearly visible in Figure 3, and this disparity contributes significantly to the
constraints in implementing solar thermal technology at FB. In the case of Option A, the solar
thermal collector field will be oversized from October through February, correctly sized for March
22
and undersized for the remainder of the year. In the case of Option B, the solar thermal system
will be undersized during all months of production except during October, and oversized only
Seasonality of heat demand is known to be an important factor when considering solar thermal
system implementation, and even if seasonal heat demand and irradiation are aligned, some
additional challenges may remain (Müller et al., 2014; Sturm et al., 2015). In this particular case,
the difficulty in determining a method of sizing a system for a seasonal industry has been
highlighted, where different optimisation criteria (Options A and B) lead to vastly different total
installed collector fields and solar fractions. For example, optimising a combined solar system for
preheating both the raw material and make-up water streams in FB according to Option A resulted
in an area of 2,314 m2 and a SF of 0.38, with an area of 665 m2 and a SF of 0.12 for Option B.
Both of these options yield solar thermal systems larger than what industry normally would
consider installing (Fuller, 2011), and the large collector areas is likely to require significant on-
plant optimization, and design to optimize the hydraulic transport and thermal storage associated
Results of the preliminary economic analysis for FA are shown in Table 7, where 3 options were
investigated: Solar heating Option A and Option B of Case A2, and Case A3 where heat recovery
from steam condensate was increased, as described in previous sections. Based on the particular
case study data for FA, all the heat integration options proposed for FA were economically viable
with positive NPV’s. Options A and B exhibited comparable performance for all parameters, and
based on economic performance it would be difficult to distinguish between these two options,
especially taking into account the potential long-term uncertainty in a project costed over a period
of 20 years. The major distinguishing feature would be the amount of annual HFO savings realised
by the different solar thermal systems, where Option A saved significantly higher amounts
(32,061 litres versus 27,790 litres for Option B, or an increase of 15 % in HFO savings). These
higher HFO savings by Option A can become particularly important in an uncertain fossil-fuel
23
market, where fossil fuel price volatility could represent a significant business risk and especially in
cases where fossil fuels are used directly for heat generation (Philibert, 2006). The reduced HFO
consumption has an important and direct reduction in carbon emissions; within the context of the
recently instated carbon tax in South Africa, this is an additional consideration which would favour
solar thermal system installation. When compared to the option of recovering heat from
condensate, installing solar thermal systems was clearly superior to not installing them, both from
an economic return standpoint (IRR values of 13.2 % and 13.0 % for Options A and B respectively,
versus only 7.8 %) and from an HFO savings viewpoint (32,061 litres and 27,790 litres HFO
savings for Options A and B respectively, versus only 6,694 litres for heat recovery from
condensate). The capital cost of Case A3 included two pumps, insulated piping, modifications to
the current steam sleeves and the necessary control equipment. A first estimate of R 1.1 million is
based on the cost of the pumps, predicted by Aspen Economic Analyser (Aspen Plus V8.8).
One of the potential negative aspects arising from the economic analysis was the relatively long
payback periods, which ranged from 11.8 years (Option A) to 17.4 years (heat recovery from
condensate) — since Industry prefer shorter payback periods of typically less than 5 years. The
current finding is in line with typical industrial solar thermal heating systems as these are known to
have relatively long payback periods due to high initial capital costs (Joubert et al., 2016; Philibert,
2006).
Table 7: Results of the preliminary economic study on proposed heat recovery and solar heat
integration systems for FA. Option A minimises the difference between solar heat demand and
supply, and Option B produces no excess heat in any of the months of production.
24
The results of the preliminary economic analysis for solar heat integration in FB are shown in Table
8, and show that the NPV’s for all the scenarios analysed were negative regardless of the solar
collector area, and were viewed as not being economically viable. The main contributor for poor
economic viability of solar thermal heating systems for FB is the fact that the main current energy
source for heating is coal, with the consequence that the initial capital expenditure to install a solar
thermal system can never be recovered through offsetting of coal costs, due to the low cost of the
coal that the solar heat will replace. Relatively low fossil fuel prices are known to be one of the
systemic constraints preventing wider uptake of solar thermal heating (Frein et al., 2014; Fuller,
2011; Joubert et al., 2016) — and has been clearly demonstrated also in the current case. To
determine at which combination of conditions solar thermal heating systems for FB would become
economically viable, further economic analyses were performed for the Option B systems (since
these were nearest to breaking even) and evaluated against historical data to estimate the viability
Table 8: Net present values and amounts of coal saved for the proposed solar heat systems of the
different applications in FB. Option A minimises the difference between solar heat demand and
supply, and Option B produces no excess heat in any of the months of production.
Option A Option B
An additional analysis was performed to determine the required efficiencies (instead of the
assumed 45 %), and by implication the size of the solar thermal system, that will result in the
NPV’s of the different scenarios in Table 8 to break even if everything else remained constant.
The Option B systems had the lowest required efficiencies: 93 %, 68 % and 105 % for cases B1,
B2 and B3 respectively, under the assumed economic conditions (see Table 1). The required
efficiency for case B3 of > 100 % is obviously impossible and the 93 % for case B1 is also
physically not achievable under actual operating conditions. Even though the 68 % required
25
monthly system efficiency for case B2 to break even is theoretically possible with very low-
temperature pre-heating systems, it is also regarded to not be achievable for current operating
conditions. Here, detailed system design and dynamic simulations of the solar heating system
When evaluating the impact of coal prices on system viability, it was found that the Option B solar
heat systems for preheating raw material and boiler make-up water in FB would become viable if
the cost of coal were to rise above R 2,053 and R 2,320 per metric ton, respectively. Although
these prices for coal have not been attained during the last 20 years, there is a possibility that coal
prices could rise to these levels within the next decade if it is assumed that the estimated annual
price increase of 8.8 % is maintained over this period (Joubert et al., 2016).
When evaluating the impact of total installed cost on solar thermal system viability, it was found
that a maximum installed system cost of 293 EUR/m2 was required for the raw material preheating
system, and 260 EUR/m2 for the make-up water preheating, before these systems will have
positive NPV’s and become economically viable. Such specific costs have been reported for other
systems installed in South Africa (Joubert et al., 2016). The corrosive operational environment at
the site of FB will require high-cost materials of construction (e.g. stainless steel) for piping and
other equipment, which will drive up cost of installation and hinder achieving these specific costs.
The proposed systems are relatively large, and economy of scale (specific cost decreasing as the
system size increases) will aid in realising these costs. Also, as the South African solar thermal
industry matures and more solar process heat systems are installed, the prices are expected to
decrease, as can be seen in other countries (Weiss and Spörk-Dür, 2019). While flagship projects
may be eligible for co-funding from a variety of sources, there is no coherent local South African
incentive scheme to assist in reducing the investment cost of solar process heat systems. Solar
thermal installations do however qualify for accelerated depreciation of the capital cost for income
tax purposes (WWF, 2017). The effects of this can only be assessed with an overall economic
26
Two major factors that affect the viability of a solar thermal heat installation are the cost of the fuel
being replaced, and the amount of unused heat due to increasing the size of the solar thermal
collector field. This is illustrated in Figure 4, where the NPV’s for systems sized to deliver certain
solar fractions at a specified constant efficiency are shown, when either HFO or coal are being
replaced. Also plotted on Figure 4 is the proportion of total heat produced with solar thermal
heating which cannot be utilised by FB over a year of operation, owing to overproduction of heat
during high-irradiation months that coincide with periods when FB is not operational. The
calculations are based on case B1: raw material preheating at FB (seeing that this is the largest
heat consumer identified which is suitable for solar thermal integration in the process). The
analysis for the system replacing heat from HFO is based on totally replacing coal with HFO for
FB’s operations, and then integrating a solar thermal system into the plant for raw material
preheating only. Total replacement of coal with HFO at the particular facility is unlikely in the
immediate future, but this scenario is realistic given national South African coal supply constraints
surrounding the national coal-based power utility, and FB also has an already-installed HFO-fired
In cases where HFO (an expensive fuel) is replaced, the NPV generally increases initially with
increasing solar fraction, since the cost savings of replacing a greater amount of the fuel are
greater than the increased costs of a larger solar thermal system. Eventually a point is reached
where the system is so large, that the cost savings of reduced fuel consumption is no longer
sufficient to offset the capital cost of the solar thermal system, and the NPV starts to decrease and
may become negative. The location of this point and the exact shape of the NPV curve will be
case specific as it will be influenced by the heat demand, solar irradiation, and efficiency of the
system, among others. Compared to the scenario where coal (a cheap fuel) is used as heating
fuel, the difference is immediately apparent, as NPV’s values become increasingly negative for the
systems that provide greater solar fractions, since the cost savings of reduced fuel consumption do
not offset the additional capital cost of the larger solar thermal system. Lines of constant
(assumed) efficiency are also shown on Figure 4 to illustrate the effect of efficiency on NPV: more
efficient systems will be smaller and have reduced capital costs while producing the same amount
27
of heat. The assumed constant efficiencies employed for this analysis are only suitable for
preliminary studies, and dynamic modelling is required to obtain more accurate efficiency values.
Systems designed for low solar fractions tend to have greater efficiencies since they tend to
operate at lower temperatures. Also apparent is the increasing amount of heat wasted as the SF
(and thus overall solar thermal system size) increases, owing to increased levels of heat which
4 Conclusions
The current work performed a preliminary investigation regarding the feasibility of integrating solar
thermal heating systems into two existing South African fishmeal factories that differed with regard
to location, raw material processed, seasonal operation and the process employed for production.
Findings clearly indicated that no general conclusion about suitability of solar thermal heat for
fishmeal production can be made, but that each production facility needs to be evaluated
separately. In this particular study, solar thermal heat integration proved to be economically viable
for different options for Factory A, under current economic and market conditions. For Factory B,
no solar thermal heating systems were economically viable under current market conditions, and
one of the main constraints to this was the use of relatively low-cost coal as heating fuel. Under
conditions of significantly higher coal prices, significantly reduced system installation costs or in a
scenario where the facility starts using heavy fuel oil as heating fuel instead of coal, solar thermal
heating may become viable. The two main factors identified which makes Factory A more suitable
for solar thermal integration than Factory B, are the more even distribution of the annual heating
requirement, and the fact that Factory A employs heavy fuel oil as main heating fuel which is
higher-priced than the coal used as heating fuel by Factory B. The work has shown that solar
thermal heating can be feasible for integration into certain fishmeal operations, depending on site-
specific conditions and the particular facility’s production methods and schedule. It has also
highlighted some of the significant constraints to implementation of solar thermal heating into
already existing operations, which include the relatively low cost of currently-used fossil fuels,
physical plant and equipment constraints, and case-specific seasonal production patterns.
28
5 Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Wilhelm Frank Trust for bursary funding for Mr. Dewald
6 Funding sources
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or
not-for-profit sectors.
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8 Figure captions
Figure 1: Map of global horizontal irradiation on South Africa, including positions of Factory A (FA)
and Factory B (FB). Map obtained from the Global Solar Atlas 2.0, a free, web-based application
is developed and operated by the company Solargis on behalf of the World Bank Group, utilizing
Solargis data, with funding provided by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program
(ESMAP). For additional information: https://globalsolaratlas.info. The original image has been
Figure 2: Solar heat demand for preheating the raw material stream in FA, solar heat supplied by
various solar heat systems, and the solar irradiation profile at FA’s location for a plane facing
46 degrees East of North at a slope of 30 degrees. The total collector areas were: 384 m2 for
Figure 3: Solar heat demand for preheating the raw material stream in FB, solar heat supplied by
various solar heat systems, and the solar irradiation profile at FB’s location for a plane facing North
with a slope of 35 degrees. The total collector areas were: 1,751 m2 for Option A and 503 m2 for
Option B.
Figure 4: Net present value of different solar thermal system sizes for the raw material preheating
case B1 at Factory B plotted over the resulting solar fraction. Results are shown both for the
replacement of coal or heavy fuel oil as main fuel sources. The fraction of the total solar heat
produced that is not used is indicated within the diagram. Simplified calculation for assumed
investment costs of 603 EUR/m2 (no economy of scale) and neglecting the operation and
32
Appendix Figure 1: The base case process of FA, showing stream temperatures and mass flow
rates.
Appendix Figure 2: The base case process of FB, showing stream temperatures and mass flow
rates. Stream A is the make-up water stream, stream B is recovered condensate at 50 kPa
9 Footnotes
Abbreviations: Factory A (FA), Factory B (FB), Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), Internal Rate of Return
(IRR), Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH), Net Present Value (NPV), Solar Fraction (SF), Typical
33
Appendix A: Block flow diagrams of the base case processes for
34
60,000 300
40,000 200
150
20,000 100
50
0 0
Month
5,00,000 150
4,00,000
3,00,000 100
2,00,000
50
1,00,000
0 0
Month
Neill Jurgens Goosen: Conceptualization, Validation, Resources, Writing - Review & Editing,
Supervision, Project administration
☒ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships
that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
☐The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered
as potential competing interests: