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Estimation with
heteroskedastic errors; serial correlation
Yi = β1 X i1 + β 2 X i 2 + + β K X iK + ui , i = 1,… , n
Yi = β1 + β 2 X i 2 + ui
Var (ui ) = σ i2
Var (cui ) = c 2σ i2
Yi 1 X u
(1) = β1 + β 2 i 2 + i
σi σi σi σi
Yi
with dependent variable and independent
σi
1 X
variables and i 2 has a homoskedastic
σi σi
random error term (and the same regression
coefficients β1 and β 2 .
2
n Yi 1 X i2 n 1
∑σ − β 1 − β 2
= (
∑ 2 i 1 2 i2
Y − β − β X )2
i =1 i σ i σ i i =1 σ i
Var (ui ) = σ 2 Z i2
Now
u
Var i = σ 2
Zi
and if we divide the dependent and
independent variables (including the
constant!) by Z i we obtain a linear regression
model with homoskedastic errors.
log σ i2 = α1 + α 2 Z i 2 + L + α L Z iL (Harvey-
Godfrey)
• Estimates of α1 ,α 2 ,α 3
• Compare OLS estimates and FGLS
estimates
• Compare OLS standard error,
heteroskedasticity-consistent standard
error, FGLS standard error
• FGLS standard error is smallest
Dependent Variable: LNRESID2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/12/01 Time: 23:16
Sample: 1 222
Included observations: 222
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
GNP HOUSING
A numerical measure for the slowness of
change or persistence of the time series is the
autocorrelation coefficient. For time series
Yt , t = 1, K, n the autocorrelation coefficient of
order 1 is defined as the sample correlation
between Yt and Yt −1 .
1 n
Y = ∑ Yt
n t =1
then the autocorrelation coefficient of order 1
is
n
∑ (Yt − Y )(Yt −1 − Y )
(2) ρ̂1 = t =2 n
∑ (Yt − Y ) 2
t =1
n n
∑ (Yt − Y ) 2
∑ (Yt −1 − Y ) 2
t =1 t =2
Yt = β1 + β 3 X t 2 + ut t = 1, K, n
(3) ut = ρut −1 + ε t
E (ε t ) = 0
Var (ε t ) = σ 2 (homoskedasticity)
ρs
• Graphical method
• Test
Graphical method
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84
LNHOUSINGCAP Residuals
RESID01LAG vs. RESID01
0.6
0.4
RESID01LAG
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
RESID01