Handling 2020

Speak In On line Session for YPO | Shiv – ABG | March 29, 2020
Structure
• The Big picture as of today
• What does it mean?
• Lockdown to Keyed up
• Summary

Disclosure : This presentation is my personal view

 The Big picture
Countries Impact Response
194 countries 640,589* confirmed cases Interest Rates cut

2.5 billion people in lockdown, ie 33 29,848* deaths Research funding for vaccine
% of global population
137,270* recovered Fiscal Stimulus:
Travel curtailed, number of flights
per day globally down from 180,000 Economic activity stutters USA $ 2.2 Trillion
to 60,000
Joblessness moves up India $ 23 billion.
Borders closed in many countries
eCommerce buying moves up China expected $ 600 billion

Online learning going up Eurozone. ECB $ 820 billion, countries

still undecided
Role of Government moves up
Singapore $ 34 Billion
* Source : Guardian UK, 29 March 2020
Covid 19

• 40 million deaths globally if we did nothing Comparison

1. 11 million people died

in World War 1
• 10 million deaths if we did something 2. 75 million people died
in World War 2
3. 60 million people die
• 1 million deaths if we did something fast every year globally

Source : Imperial College report

What does it mean?

• To Society

• To Employees

• To Companies
TO
This should teach us that we are
interdependent and we need each
other to do our best, we are not
islands in our homes.
To Society
• This is a shared global emergency.

• Covid 19 is the biggest collective problem society faces. It’s agnostic of

religion, rich, poor, nationality, young or old, millennial or centennial.

• Can classify society into rule followers and rule breakers.

• Valuing the people not valued before, daily household help, doctors, police,
municipal workers etc.

• Protectionist trade policies added to the great depression of the 1930s,

countries should learn from that in formulating a response.
To Employees
This is not the time to look for a job
change even if you think you are
better than your boss and you are
paying high EMI. Stay put for 9-12
months.
To Employees
• A period of immense stress and challenge – Fear,
Uncertainty and Doubt
• The office breaks, gossip, chit chat drive attachment,
belongingness
• Need connection to colleagues and want situation update
• Someone who has joined just now is in a terrible situation
• Someone serving their notice period/has an offer is in a
huge dilemma
• Permanent employees, contract employees, daily wage
employees, all need reassurance
To Companies
Your past position is no guarantee
of your future position after Covid
19. Covid 19 has taken everyone
back to the starting line.
Every company needs society and the
government to come through this.
 Sectors - 67 % of India GDP
Sector Contribution to GDP 2020 First 60 days Outlook for 12 months out
Agriculture 15 % Migration workers critical
Consumer and Retail 11% Business Model will change
Construction 8% Price challenge
Financial services 7% Trust is key
Oil, gas , metals 7% Slow recovery
Freight & Logistics 5%
IT services 5% Spend at individual level
Power 2% Stimulus will kick in activity
Auto 2%
Textiles 2%
Airlines 1% Need government stimulus
Hotels 1% Cant pay debt
Pharma 1%
Timeframe is after lockdown is lifted
 A Company plan – From Locked down to Keyed Up
Today- Locked down
• Need highest engagement
• Build worst case scenario
• Signal situation on jobs
• Rethink business models
• Rethink value of customers
First 60 days of Keyed Up
• Is there a plan, what is the plan?
Assume a 11 month year in FY21.
• What are you chasing ? Market
share? Profitability? Cash?
• Don’t slip into old habits, build
new ones
• Try and test a new business model
• Formal ID cards for essential
industry employees
61 – 150 days of Keyed up
• What changes in this time frame?
• New business models into market
• Who in your industry is better than
you, what did they do in this crisis,
and why didn’t you do it ?
• Are you in better shape to handle
the next crisis?
New Businesses

• Digital Night Club in Berlin

• Digital birthdays in UK and USA for kids

• Digital events to cheer people up across UK, USA

• Accelerated Online learning across the world

What’s good that we see
• Communication tools improving and helping

• Creativity of memes

• An uptick in Gratitude, kindness, hope

• Government tracking for right reasons

Summary • Society is learning a dramatic emergency lesson

• The role of government is critical and will increase

• Employees are most vulnerable right now

• Most Companies will struggle with cash flow

• Build high engagement, think and move from

lockdown to keyed up