CRISIL Webinar Takeaways

ViewCube
May 2019

Telecom

Troughed out
Revenue set to rebound with
7% growth this fiscal
Rural subscribers to drive
next leg of growth
ViewCube is a compilation of sector views expressed during CRISIL’s webinars.

These include CRISIL’s own views, that of stakeholders, and those emanating from a poll done during the
webinar.

Analytical contacts
Sachin Gupta Nitesh Jain Hetal Gandhi
Senior Director Director Director
CRISIL Ratings CRISIL Ratings CRISIL Research
sachin.gupta@crisil.com nitesh.jain@crisil.com hetal.gandhi@crisil.com

Abhishek Anand Rakshit Kachhal Rounak Agarwal

Associate Director Associate Director Senior Research Analyst
CRISIL Ratings CRISIL Ratings CRISIL Research
abhishek.anand@crisil.com rakshit.kachhal@crisil.com rounak.agarwal@crisil.com

Editorial
Raj Nambisan, Director
Subrat Mohapatra, Associate Director
Nisha Prabhakaran, Lead Editor
Smitha Puthiyadan, Senior Editor

Design
Rajesh Gawade
Contents
Our view 4

Their view 10

Poll view 13

CRISIL-rated telecom sector companies 15

3
Our view Visible signs of recovery
After losing over Rs 40,000 crore revenue
in the past two years, the Indian telecom
industry is expected to see revenue
growth recover to ~7% on-year in fiscal
2020.

Growth will be driven by a rise in average

revenue per user (ARPU) per month, given
price stabilisation and a rise in data
volume despite a drop in subscriber base
due to SIM consolidation and a saturated
urban market.

Recovery in ARPU to revive revenue

% Rs '00 cr

15 2,000
11
8 9 1,500
10 7
5 1,000
5 500
0
0 0
-5 -500
-1,000
-10 -13 -11 -1,500
-15 -2,000
FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20P
Gross revenue (RHS) Growth rate
E: Estimated; P: Projected
Source: TRAI, CRISIL Research

ARPUs to inch up
Price wars sparked by the entry of
Reliance Jio led to a deterioration in the
incumbents’ ARPU, and thereby a decline
in their revenue market share. Indeed,
ARPUs of larger incumbents have almost
halved in the past two years. Smaller
incumbents found it difficult to sustain
at such low ARPUs and therefore exited
the market. This led to incumbents losing
~30% revenue market share to Jio as of
December 2018.

4
CRISIL believes the pricing aggression will remain ARPU to grow ~11% in FY20
moderate and selective in fiscal 2020 on account of Rs
the following: 200 180
180
• Jio has established its revenue market leadership 160 143
in 13 circles (7 B circles and 6 C circles), which 140
116 114
account for ~44% of the industry revenue. This 120 102
is led by higher ARPUs that Jio has been able to 100
command by targeting premium subscribers in 80
these circles 60
40
On the other hand, large incumbents such as 20
0
Airtel and Vodafone Idea have managed to retain
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20P
their leadership in premium circles – metros and
E: Estimated; P: Projected
A circle. Thus, there is a probability that further Note: ARPU includes financials of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea & Reliance Jio
downward revision in pricing, if any, would be Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research
selective and would remain a key monitorable

• Prepaid pack logs maintained by CRISIL Research

Rural subscribers to drive growth;
indicate the average pricing has now converged to minimum recharge packs to check
~Rs 4/GB for all telcos and has stabilised over the urban subscriber growth
past two quarters
As of February 2019, India had ~527 million rural
Prepaid pricing stabilises wireless subscribers and a rural teledensity of ~59%.
Rs/GB
Rural net subscriber addition has spurted in the past
8 decade or so, given the launch of 3G and 4G. Still,
7 rural teledensity is much lower compared with urban.
6 Given this, we expect the rural subscriber base to
5 4.3 4.6 continue growing.
4.0
4
3 In the urban circles, on the other hand, 4G launch
2 led to the addition of ~73 million urban subscribers
1 over fiscals 2016-2018. However, majority of these
0
were dual-SIM users, who deactivated the secondary
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Jio SIM post expiry of free offers. This led to a decline in
urban teledensity from 166.7% as of fiscal 2017 to
Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4FY19E
161.2% as of fiscal 2018.
E: Estimated
Note: The data includes average tariffs of prepaid packs ranging from 1 GB/
day to 5 GB/day across 8 circles Urban teledensity has reduced further since then,
Source: Company websites, CRISIL Research with the exit of smaller telcos and introduction of
minimum recharge plans, to ~157.2% as of February
ARPUs of the top three players are expected to 2019, leading to massive SIM consolidation and
inch up by ~11% on-year in fiscal 2020 to ~Rs 114. weeding out of inactive subscribers. We expect this
Besides stable pricing, introduction of minimum trend to continue in fiscal 2020 as well.
recharge plans will push ARPUs, as inactive
subscribers will need to pay minimum Rs 35-a-month Overall, the wireless subscriber base is expected to
to remain active. High growth in data volume will also shrink by ~4% in fiscal 2020.
support ARPUs.

Despite all this, however, ARPUs in India would

remain the lowest among countries with 4G network.
At present, these are almost 80% lower compared
with high-volume markets such as China.

5
 Rural subscribers: Low teledensity gaining Urban subscribers: Shift to primary SIM will
telcos’ attention check growth
Mn Mn
600 22 700 73
76 16 202 56
500 600
73
49 500
400 195
132 400
300 300
129 199
200 200
100 -63
100 62 -16 -50
0
0 -100

FY08

FY08-FY10

FY10-FY12

FY12-FY14

FY14-FY16

FY16-FY18
FY08

FY19E

FY20P
FY08-FY10

FY10-FY12

FY12-FY14

FY14-FY16

FY16-FY18

FY19E

Rural subscribers Net addition FY20P Urban subscribers Net addition

E: Estimated; P: Projected E: Estimated; P: Projected
Source: TRAI, CRISIL Research Source: TRAI, CRISIL Research

More than half of India’s wireless

subscribers yet to use data

India has emerged as the largest consumer of Given the rise in 4G adoption, with increased
data despite the fact that over 50% of the wireless availability of cheaper handsets, almost half the total
subscribers are yet to use data. wireless subscribers are expected to start using 4G
data SIM cards by March 2020. Thus, 4G will peak by
fiscal 2021. The average data usage per subscriber
per month has reached over 10 GB from ~1 GB two
50%
41% years back. Thus, the increase in data usage and
66% 60% users will drive data volume growth in India. CRISIL
74% 71% 69%
Research expects data volume to grow ~53% to
reach ~85 petabytes by fiscal 2020.
1% 40% 51%
11% 24%
5% 9% 13%
11%
21% 20% 17% 9% 2G/3G on decline, 4G to peak by FY21
12% 5% 4%
7% 5% 4%
FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20P

2G data users 3G data users 4G data users Non-data users

E: Estimated; P: Projected
Source: TRAI, CRISIL Research

E: Estimated; P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research

6
OTT, gaming to drive data volume High investment need may restrict 5G
growth; telcos bet big on content launch to metros & A circles initially
More than 70% of the data usage in India is on Given that 4G is still evolving in India, we believe 5G
watching videos, and the trend has only increased is at least two years away. Players would need to
in the past year or so. The vast array of content look at development of an enabling infrastructure
available on over-the-top (OTT) platforms is driving ecosystem first. Fiberisation, one of the pre-
data usage. requisites for 5G launch, is still less than 30%, and
we believe an investment of over Rs 1 lakh crore
We believe curated, customised and regional content would be needed to reach the ~70% fiberisation
will see significant viewership going forward. mark necessary for leveraging 5G use cases.

Another emerging trend is mobile gaming. In line Further, the 5G device ecosystem in India is still at a
with the global trend, mobile gaming has picked up nascent stage. The price of 5G-enabled smartphones
in India. For instance, PUBG saw over 100 million would depend upon the magnitude of adoption
downloads (~10% of wireless subscribers) within a in the US, China, etc, which can give significant
year of its launch. headroom to reduce pricing here. Also, higher debt of
~Rs 4.3 lakh crore requires significant deleveraging
Data traffic to increase 1.5x on-year by FY20 before players can go for next level of capacity
Petabytes GB additions.
100 11.2 12
90 The reserve price recommended by the Telecom
80 8.5 87 10
Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) for 5G spectrum
70 8
60 56 bands is too high compared with the UK and South
50 5.1 6 Korea. For instance, reserve price recommended by
40 TRAI for India is ~$0.23/MHz/population (for metros)
27 4
30
20 1.3 compared with the reserve price of ~$0.16/MHz/
2
10 0.2 0.3 population in the UK, during the auction in June 2018.
0 0 This may force telcos to bid only in metros and A
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20P circles, which are more likely to use high-speed fibre
Data traffic Data usage per sub per month (RHS) services, amidst their weak debt profile.
E: Estimated; P: Projected; Sub: Subscriber
Source: TRAI, company reports, CRISIL Research

Operating profit to improve with revenue increase

After three consecutive years of decline in operating
profit, driven by pricing pressure due to the entry of
Jio, the industry is expected to recover and witness a
rise in operating profit in fiscal 2020.

Significant pricing pressure impacted operating profits of incumbents

EBITDA impact (Rs '00 cr)

500 448 429

450 213
400 68 338 368
350 291
300 57
250
200
150
100
50
-
Pricing/Sub

New entrant

Pricing/Sub

New entrant

Pricing/Sub
FY16

FY17

FY18

FY20P
Opex

Opex

FY19E

Opex

E: Estimated; P: Projected; Sub: Subscriber

Note: Analysis includes India mobility business of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Ratings

7
 ARPU growth to drive profitability Capex intensity to moderate from
FY20
The industry has witnessed significant consolidation,
with the top three players now accounting for The industry witnessed significant ramp-up in
92-93% of the revenue market share. As the network capex during fiscals 2018 and 2019 as large
industry is characterised by large fixed operating incumbents made hefty investments to enhance
costs, viz., network operations and employee costs, their 4G coverage and counter the threat from the
consolidation aids improvement in ARPUs and new entrant. As a result, the network capex-to-
profitability. revenue ratio is estimated to have increased to 61%
during fiscal 2019 from 44-46% during fiscals 2016
CRISIL estimates combined profitability from and 2017.
the mobility business of the top three players to
increase by 300 bps to 26% in fiscal 2020 from 23%
Network investments to moderate in FY20
as of fiscal 2019.
1,600 70%

1,400
Large incumbents (Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea) 60%
witnessed significant pressure on their operating 1,200
610 50%

Rs '00 cr
profit over fiscals 2018 and 2019 as the industry 1,000
320 40%
ARPU declined 26% and 19% on-year, respectively. 800
However, with the expected uptrend in ARPU, the 30%
600
industry profit is likely to increase by ~Rs 8,000 914
1,034
20%
400 799 847
crore in fiscal 2020. 790 773
200 10%

CRISIL has estimated that with an increase in ARPU - 0%

by another Rs 17, profitability can increase up to FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20P
33%, same as during fiscal 2016 when the ARPU was Spectrum capex Network capex Network capex to revenue (RHS)
Rs 180. With large investments and low cash accrual, E: Estimated; P: Projected
Note: We have not factored in any investments towards 5G spectrum for FY20
the industry’s return on capital employed (ROCE) is Source: Company reports, CRISIL Ratings
currently below 2%. For the ROCE to improve to 12%,
the industry ARPU will have to increase by another
Rs 55. Both these scenarios are not likely to pan out Debt to decline after peaking in March
over the short to medium term. 2019
Consolidation has increased industry’s Debt of the top three operators increased more than
operating leverage 60% over the past four fiscals and is estimated to
have reached ~Rs 3.56 lakh crore in March 2019. This
200 33% 32% 33% 35%
has been largely driven by high capex/ investments
26% 30% towards network infrastructure and spectrum, while
160
23% 26%
55 25% cash accrual remained moderate.
120 17 20%
However, as a large part of the network capex
Rs

180 15%
80
143 had been up-fronted, CRISIL estimates the capex
116 114 114 114 10%
40
102 intensity to moderate to Rs 84,700 crore for fiscal
5% 2020. The network capex-to-revenue ratio is
0 0% estimated to moderate to 46% from 61% in fiscal
Scenario 1

Scenario 2
FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20P

2019.
FY20P

FY20P

Investments towards spectrum can, however, lead

Industry ARPU (LHS) Industry EBITDA margin (RHS) to significant debt as observed during fiscals 2016
E: Estimated; P: Projected and 2017. CRISIL has not factored in any investments
Note: Analysis includes India mobility business of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone towards 5G spectrum.
Idea and Reliance Jio
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Ratings

8
The increase has been against a backdrop of
Rs 1.6 lakh crore of deleveraging, including asset
sale and equity infusion during the period.

Large deleveraging plans through equity infusion and

asset sale coupled with an increase in accrual will
lead to debt reduction to Rs 3.1 lakh crore.

Deleveraging plans to support debt levels in FY20

4,500
1,409 361
4,000 915 287
843
381
Rs '00 cr

3,500 1,093 460

3,000 150 27
55 3
2,500
2,206
2,635 2,867 3,117 3,565 3,122
2,000 -
Others

Others

Others

Others

Others
Capex

Accrual

Equity

Capex

Accrual

Capex

Accrual

Equity

Capex

Accrual

Capex

Accrual

Equity
Debt

Debt

Debt

Debt

Asset Sale

Debt

Asset Sale

Debt
Equity

Equity
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20P Mar-20P

E: Estimated; P: Projected
Note: Consolidated debt for Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio has been factored in, including deferred spectrum payment liabilities
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Ratings

Debt protection metrics to improve,

but remain moderate
Increasing debt level, coupled with weakening of However, despite a steep climb in debt, the gearing
cash accrual, has led to significant deterioration of ratio (debt to equity) has been supported by large
the industry credit profile. While the interest cover equity infusion. Gearing is estimated to have been
declined from above 4 times for fiscal 2015 to an around 2.6 times as of March 2019 as against
estimated 2 times for fiscal 2019. Debt-to-earnings 2.2 times as of March 2015.
before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
(EBITDA) ratio also worsened to 7.7 times from Further, supported by the deleveraging plans, along
3.8 times over the period. with an improvement in accrual, the debt protection
metrics are expected to moderately improve with
Deleveraging plans and improved accrual interest cover estimated at 2.5 times and debt-to-
to benefit debt protection metrics EBITDA ratio of 5.6 times for fiscal 2020. Driven by
9.0 5.0 large equity infusion plans, the industry gearing is
8.0
4.3
4.5 expected to improve substantially to 1.5 times by
4.0 March 2020.
7.0 3.5
3.5
6.0
2.7 2.6 2.5 3.0
5.0 2.3
2.2 2.5
2.1
4.0
2.0
2.1 2.3 2.0
3.0
1.5 1.5
2.0 1.0
1.0 0.5
3.8 3.8 3.9 6.4 7.7 5.6
0.0 -
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20P

Debt to EBITDA Interest cover (RHS) Debt to equity (RHS)

E: Estimated; P: Projected
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Ratings

9
 Their view
Views excerpted from a panel discussion during the
CRISIL webinar on the telecom sector.
The webinar was attended by 215 external participants
representing 115 organisations.
The panelists were:
On one-year outlook for
the industry in terms of
tariff and ARPU
Operators now acknowledge that a
pure business-to-consumer (B2C)
approach, which has characterised
the voice and data revenue streams,
just leads to a high-volume, low-
margin business.

Rajan S Mathews Increasingly, players are moving

Director General towards an all-data network. Cutting-
Cellular Operators Association of India edge technologies such as Internet
of Things (IoT) and narrowband IoT
are changing the dynamics of the
telecom sector. These advancements
Santosh Kamath have thrown open opportunities for
MD & CIO - Fixed Income telecom operators on the supply side,
Franklin Templeton in logistics, healthcare, education,
etc.

Given this, ARPU could see some

Gaurav Basra
Chief Strategy Officer
Sterlite Technologies
pick-up because of additional
capacity from mining rural areas and
increased penetration in some B and
C Circles. Margins are unlikely to see
a marked improvement, though.

The sheer volume of data

consumption on the B2C side
does not really offer much scope
because that cannot be monetised
immediately. The problem holds
globally, too, because beyond a point,
there are capacity constraints on
the spectrum side and that has its
own concomitant requirements for
expansion of network in congested
areas, etc.

Instead, operators are realising that

pivoting towards a business-to-
business (B2B) approach is more
sustainable. There is an upside in
terms of affordability as well. These
factors should help sustain the
projected growth in ARPUs.

10
On whether investors have the
confidence to take a medium-to-long-
term call on the sector
For debt holders to take a slightly long-term view,
some pricing power has to come back. Majority of
investors are in the wait-and-watch mode, especially
after the turbulence seen over the last couple of
years, the way the numbers have crumbled, and
the surge in debt-to-EBITDA. Even rating agencies
continue to have a negative watch or outlook on the
sector, which indicates there is a belief things may
get worse before they start to improve. Eventually,
the wait-and-watch mode has to change and move
from negative to stable. Only then will more debt
investors start looking at the sector more seriously.
On how the 5G story is unfolding
globally
Historically, certain geographies such as China, the
US, and Europe have led in terms of investments.
Operators in these geographies are already making
a lot of investments to make their network 5G-ready
as the 5G network inherently has a different
architecture. It is more small-cell or microcell-
based and, by definition, the base stations are much
closer to the user. This requires a different network
deployment strategy or network densification.
Significant network densification is happening in
the US, China, and some other geographies. In fact,
China and the US will see large-scale deployments
in 2020. Field trials have already been announced in
both China and the US. These operators will deploy
5G networks commercially next year. The rollout of
5G services will also depend on the availability of
5G-compatible devices.
On whether the launch of India’s first
5G network is likely in the near term
To put things in perspective, in the global markets,
South Korea has already launched its 5G network.
AT&T and Verizon are doing it in the US, whereas
parts of Europe, Australia and other countries are
looking to auction 5G spectrum.
In India, there needs to be clarity on the spectrum
side first. Once that is sorted, it should take
6-12 months of trials, followed by commercial
deployment.
Having said that, as we get closer to the 5G network
becoming a reality, the distinction between 4G and
5G is looking a bit fuzzy. With technologies such
as narrow-band IoT, and multiple input, multiple
output (MiMo) being available, operators do not see
a grave need for 5G network. Some applications that
were thought to be pure-play 5G-type applications
are working fine in a robust 4G network. Therefore,
operators are currently focussing on strengthening
their 4G network, which will support a lot of things
that were expected to happen in the 5G space.
For India, the 2020-2022 timeframe looks reasonable
for launch of 5G network, but correct pricing will be
a critical aspect. Considering an operator will need
at least a 100 MHz of spectrum, it would be totally
unfeasible for operators to do so at current prices.
On the likelihood of sharing
infrastructure and assets to meet
capex demands for 5G network
Companies are beginning to leverage and optimise
their spectrum holdings. They are moving out of 2G
and 3G networks (to 4G) and the spectrum is being
refarmed. Efficiencies in the use of spectrum are
improving as players are moving to 4G network.
Players will continue to see some cost savings and
optimisation from spectrum management. This
is clear in the consolidation spree in the telecom
market in the last two years – be it the Vodafone-
Idea JV, RCom and Jio, or Airtel.
Interest sharing will continue to happen on the tower
side. Tenancies have shrunk and the sector has
lost 2-3 major operators because of consolidation,
leading to some infrastructure overhang. But that
will change, expanding the demand for towers, not
just the big rooftop, greenfield towers, but also more
indoor coverage, more mini-towers.
Edge computing gaining traction and increasing
adoption of cloud services by the enterprise side
of the business, will drive the demand for fibre.
Increasingly, operators will start looking at fibre
11
 sharing as well. With towers being shared, some
efficiencies are already there. Taking the entire
operating cost structure into account, players will
continue to see benefits from these areas.
On the regulatory side, the government is aware that
operators are looking at the implications of Goods
and Services Tax and the redefinition of adjusted
growth revenue on which licence fees and spectrum
usage charges are paid, which implies more offsets.
The National Digital Communication Policy, 2018,
has all these factors built-in. Hopefully, the new
government will begin to start acting on that in the
next 6-9 months. So, when the total operating cost
structure is considered, there are opportunities for
improving margins. However, there do not seem to
be any further opportunities from pure headcount
reductions.
On comparison of telecom sector with
other infrastructure utilities in terms
of risk metrics for a debt investor
The two key numbers that any debt investor looks
at is what kind of debt and EBITDA the company will
have over a period of time.
For both roads and renewables, it is fair to assume
that once a project is complete, debt typically stays
at the same level. Therefore, it is easy to peg a debt
number for the next 5, 10 or 15 years.
As for EBITDA, there is a fair degree of confidence
in renewables, where one can have a view for a long
term. In the roads sector, it may be slightly tricky,
depending on some traffic changes or some number
changes there. But overall, it is relatively easy to
predict the EBITDA on both these sectors with some
degree of certainty.
If these two sectors are positioned on one end of the
scale, telecom would be at the extreme other end,
mainly because it involves significantly higher capex.
From what we have seen over the last couple of
12
years, the capex numbers can take the telecom
operators’ debt to a significantly higher level.
Auctions keep coming up as well, making it very
difficult to peg how much debt the company will take
to put in new spectrum.
Conventionally, it was assumed that it is relatively
easy to predict EBITDA for the telecom sector. But,
when Reliance Jio entered the fray last year, it proved
how a new entrant can become a game changer.
Moreover, operating leverage is significantly high in
telecom. Therefore, a mild increase in ARPU can have
a significant impact on EBITDA.
Yet, though debt and EBITDA can be predicted more
easily for roads and renewables, they also offer lower
yields.
To figure out the best option, therefore, an investor
needs to match the yield and the credit, and also
look at other sectors where a good call can be taken
with some degree of confidence based on strong
sponsors, which part of the industry cycle they are in,
and whether they can deliver good returns.
On the extent of fiberisation and
quantum of investment required
As we evolve from one technology to another, a very
high proportion of sites would need to be fiberised.
Today, India lags in terms of percentage of towers
that are fiberised – at 25-30% compared with
70-80% for a 4G network in the US or any other
developed economy.
In terms of investment in tower fiberisation, Indian
operators still have some way to go. There has been
some talk about whether fiberisation is the only
option ahead, or whether wireless backhaul options
are also worth exploring. This has been one of the
reasons for the disparity between India and the
developed markets.
Poll view What is your view about the telecom industry
revenue growth in fiscal 2020?

Results of the survey held during the

CRISIL webinar on the telecom sector 7% 2%

31% Less than 5%

Based on responses from over 5-10%

40 participants 10-15%

More than 15%

60%

What is your view about the credit outlook for

the telecom sector over the medium term?

16%

Positive
39%
Stable

Negative

45%

13
 Do you expect ARPUs to go up in fiscal 2020? Will the profitability in fiscal 2020 be better
than fiscal 2019?

12%
27%
Yes
Yes
No
No

73%
88%

When do you expect the rollout of 5G in India? Do you expect capex intensity to moderate in
fiscal 2020, vs fiscals 2018 and 2019?

21%
30% April 2019-March 2020
Yes
45%
April 2020-March 2021
55% No
April 2021-March 2022

49%

14
CRISIL-rated telecom service providers

Company name

Bharti Airtel Ltd

Bharti Hexacom Ltd

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd

Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd

Tata Teleservices Ltd

Vodafone Idea Ltd

15
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