Demanda Error Error

Periodo At Constante Lt Pendiente Tt Pronostico Ft Error Et Absoluto Absoluto %

0 76,731 28
1 88,890 88,783 28 76,760 -12,130 12,130 13.6%
2 67,363 67,553 28 88,811 21,448 21,448 31.8%
3 72,584 72,540 28 67,581 -5,003 5,003 6.9%
4 71,094 71,107 28 72,568 1,474 1,474 2.1%
5 71,450 71,447 28 71,135 -315 315 0.4%
6 69,019 69,041 28 71,476 2,457 2,457 3.6%
7 87,403 87,241 28 69,069 -18,334 18,334 21.0%
8 90,229 90,203 28 87,269 -2,960 2,960 3.3%
9 93,681 93,650 28 90,231 -3,450 3,450 3.7%
10 77,917 78,057 28 93,679 15,762 15,762 20.2%
11 78,085 78,085 28 78,085 0 0 0.0%
12 71,885 71,940 28 78,113 6,228 6,228 8.7%
13 64,143 64,212 28 71,969 7,826 7,826 12.2%
14 63,370 63,378 28 64,241 871 871 1.4%
15 75,996 75,884 28 63,406 -12,590 12,590 16.6%
16 89,605 89,484 28 75,913 -13,692 13,692 15.3%
17 74,451 74,584 28 89,512 15,061 15,061 20.2%
18 64,083 64,176 28 74,613 10,530 10,530 16.4%
19 80,183 80,041 28 64,205 -15,978 15,978 19.9%
20 89,156 89,076 28 80,070 -9,086 9,086 10.2%

Chart Title
100000
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0 5 10 15 20 25

Demanda Pronostico Ft
At
 MSEt MADt MAPEt TSt

147,141,752 12,130 13.6% - 1

303,577,535 16,789 22.7% 1 a=
210,727,142 12,860 17.5% 0 b=
158,588,569 10,014 13.6% 1
126,890,646 8,074 11.0% 1 1. Constante 0
106,748,008 7,138 9.7% 1
139,516,952 8,737 11.3% - 1 2. Pendiente 0
123,172,557 8,015 10.3% - 2
110,809,100 7,508 9.6% - 2 3. Pronostico 1
124,571,668 8,333 10.7% - 0
113,246,971 7,576 9.7% - 0 4. Constante 1
107,042,443 7,463 9.6% 1
103,519,115 7,491 9.8% 2 5. Pendiente 1
96,179,043 7,018 9.2% 2
100,334,168 7,390 9.7% 0 6. Pronostico 30
105,780,471 7,784 10.0% - 2
112,901,400 8,212 10.6% 0 7. Solver
112,788,903 8,341 11.0% 2
120,289,892 8,742 11.4% - 0
118,403,319 8,760 11.4% - 1
 0.99 Alfa Factor de Ajuste de la Constante
0.00 Beta Factor de Ajustre de la Pendiente

Función Internsección EJE para la demanda

INTERSECCION.EJE(B3:B30;A3:A30)

Función Pendiente para la demanda PENDIENTE(B3:B30;A3:A30)

Constante 0 + Pendiente 0

Demanda 1*Alfa+pronostico 1*(1-Alfa)

(Constante 1-Constante 0)*Beta+Pendiente 0*(1-Beta)

Pronostico 29+Pendiente 28

Minimizar el Error absoluto de la media

Restricción Alfa y Beta <=1