Time 0 1 2 3 4 5

Sales 5730 5930 5870 3790 4500

Salaries -1450 -1500 -1850 -1030 -1210
Distribution -760 -770 -1080 -530 -650
Consumables -180 -270 -290 -200 -230
Depreciation -1875 -1406.2-1054.6-791.01-593.26-5720.214844
Office costs -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 1779.785156
Survey Cost -5950 -15
-1550
OPBT -300 1350 1883.751495.311138.981716.738281
Tax 877.5 1224.43971.953740.3391115.879883
(OPAT) -7800 2752.5 2630.682026.641531.353192.28125
NPV ₹ -7,800.00
IRR 17%
Payback Period 3.254788573
Profitability Index $0.00
Accept
 1 2 3 4 5
7500 1875 1406.25 1054.6875791.01562593.2617188

BV 1779.785156

Terminal cash Flow

1483.139648

3300 -1780 1520

532
Given Cash Flows
Sale 9 million
SP 65 per sachet
VC 15 per sachet
MC 6.5
LC 3.5
Overhead 5
FC 6.75 per sachet
Marketing 25 million
Inflation
Price
Var Overhead & 4%
Labour 5%
MC 3%
WorkingDepriciable
Project Capital 30%
Cost
Project 2100 million
Opportunity cost 1000 million
Tax 0.30
Recovery
Building 2000.00 million
Salvage 1000.00 million
Sale Value 1000.00 million

Project Life 7 years

Req Rate 0.0865

Sensitivity Analysis
Deviations Wacc NPV Units sold
$252.28
-30% 0.06055 754.439156 6.3
-15% 0.073525 492.296869 7.65
0% 0.0865 252.280025 9
15% 0.099475 32.2246465 10.35
30% 0.11245 -169.79658 11.7

NPV
Deviations WACC Units Sold Sale Value
 -30% 754.4391561-257.245958 84.43319646
-15% 492.2968691-2.48296676 168.3566108
0% 252.2800252252.2800252252.2800252
15% 32.22464652507.0430171311.0264152
30% -169.796578761.806009 369.7728053

Scenario Analysis
NPV IRR
Best Case 25% $1,393.56 13%
Base Case 50% $252.28 10%
Worst Case 25% ($742.51) 6%

Expected $288.90 $0.10

Stdev 756.102669
Coef of Variation Stdev/Mean $2.62

Also create a scenario summary

 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Initial Inv
3100
Sales 9 9 9 9 9 9
SP 65 67.6 70.304 73.11616 76.04080679.082438

Revenue 585 608.4 632.736 658.04544684.36725711.74194

MC 6.5 6.695 6.89585 7.10272557.31580727.5352814

LC 3.5 3.675 3.85875 4.05168754.25427184.4669854
Overhead 5 5.25 5.5125 5.788125 6.07753126.3814078

Variable Cost 135 140.58 146.4039 152.48284158.82849165.45307

Fixed Cost 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5
Marketing Exp 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Op Profit BDIT 375.75 393.57 412.0821 431.31259451.28876472.03887
Depriciation 157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285
PBIT 218.60714236.42714254.93924274.16974294.14590314.89601
Tax 65.58214270.92814276.48177282.25092288.24377294.468805
PAT 153.025 165.499 178.45747191.91881205.90213220.42721
Add Depriciation 310.16785322.64185335.60032349.06167363.04499377.57006
WC 175.5 182.52 189.8208 197.41363205.31017213.52258222.06348
NWC 175.5 7.02 7.3008 7.592832 7.89654528.21240708.5409033
Terminal CF
FCF -3275.5 303.14785315.34105328.00749341.16513354.83258369.02916

NPV ($3,275.50)
IRR 10%
Profitability Index $0.00

NPV Sale Value NPV

$252.28 $252.28
-257.24595870781 700 84.4332
-2.48296676873861 850 168.3566
252.280025170333 1000 252.28
507.043017109406 1150 311.0264
761.806009048477 1300 369.7728

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
4.43319646 1
68.3566108 0.9
52.2800252 0.8
11.0264152 0.7
0.6
69.7728053
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
1220272.616
1341.316536 WACC Units Sold Sale Value
1063809.735

$571,691.25
Year 7

9
82.2457362

740.2116258

7.761339927
4.690334742
6.700478203

172.3693759
67.5
6.75
493.59225
157.1428571
336.4493928
100.9348178
235.514575
392.6574321
0
-222.0634877
3000.00
3614.72
 15% 30%

Value
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Best Case Base Case Worst Case
Changing Cells:
Units Sold 6.3 11.7 9 6.3
$C$3 65 65 65 65
$C$4 15 15 15 15
$D$5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
$D$6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
$D$7 5 5 5 5
$C$8 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
$C$9 25 25 25 25
$D$11 5% 3% 4% 5%
$D$12 6% 4% 5% 6%
$D$13 4% 2% 3% 4%
$C$14 30% 30% 30% 30%
Setup Cost 2100 2100 2100 2100
$C$16 1000 1000 1000 1000
$C$17 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
$C$19 2000.00 2000.00 2000.00 2000.00
$C$20 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00
$C$21 700.00 1300.00 1000.00 700.00
$C$24 0.11245 0.06055 0.0865 0.11245
Result Cells:
$H$28 ($742.51) $1,393.56 $252.28 ($742.51)
$H$29 6% 13% 10% 6%
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Given Cash Flows
Sale 6.2179980783368 million 9 1.909188309
SP 65 per sachet
VC 15 per sachet
MC 6.5
LC 3.5
Overhead 5
FC 6.75 per sachet
Marketing 25 million
Inflation
Price
Var Overhead & 4%
Labour 5%
MC 3%
WorkingDepriciable
Project Capital 30%
Cost
Project 2090.8519962252 million 2100 176.7766953
Opportunity cost 1000 million
Tax 0.30
Recovery
Building 2000.00 million
Salvage 1000.00 million
Sale Value 1000.00 million

Project Life 7 years

Req Rate 5.3119447404151 8.65 1.834942097
Units Sold Setup Cost Wacc
Best Case 25% 11.7 1850 6.055
Base Case 50% 9 2100 8.65
Worst Case 25% 6.3 2350 11.245
Mean 9 2100 8.65
std dev 1.909188309176.77669531.834942097

Simulation

Trials Units Sold Project Cost WACC

6.22 2090.85 5.31
1.00 12.50 2056.57 12.49
2.00 4.82 2305.37 10.45
3.00 9.07 2034.31 6.40
4.00 9.61 1907.61 10.60
5.00 8.26 1929.33 7.74
6.00 9.56 1948.17 10.33
7.00 8.04 1948.98 7.84
 8.00 10.27 2030.52 10.50
9.00 7.70 2235.25 7.00
10.00 10.79 1937.83 13.12
11.00 6.03 1894.93 8.78
12.00 7.43 1843.96 9.43
13.00 8.45 2101.34 11.51
14.00 8.30 2242.18 9.35
15.00 6.34 2025.12 6.98
16.00 9.64 2162.81 9.86
17.00 10.54 1775.12 8.55
18.00 8.73 2185.07 8.28
19.00 8.93 1779.81 11.31
20.00 7.93 2134.91 10.59
21.00 9.48 2202.81 10.03
22.00 7.50 2129.46 6.41
23.00 9.66 2099.43 8.99
24.00 8.71 2124.45 7.79
25.00 8.03 2142.35 8.10
26.00 10.24 1988.77 7.82
27.00 11.95 2200.84 6.53
28.00 8.60 2044.21 8.26
29.00 7.89 2368.37 12.01
30.00 9.80 2463.71 9.30
31.00 9.08 2092.53 8.81
32.00 9.05 1897.21 6.79
33.00 9.44 2011.80 6.43
34.00 7.11 2244.39 5.47
35.00 9.32 2004.47 6.72
36.00 7.72 1929.61 8.49
37.00 10.15 1915.78 5.85
38.00 12.93 1879.86 8.56
39.00 10.24 2004.10 9.00
40.00 9.21 2275.59 9.41
41.00 12.36 1908.32 7.04
42.00 11.95 2105.11 10.29
43.00 6.43 2077.09 12.07
44.00 7.46 2276.29 10.00
45.00 10.11 1991.63 7.98
46.00 7.73 1976.14 7.89
47.00 8.56 2225.42 8.81
48.00 5.54 2311.42 7.32
49.00 10.10 1805.17 12.81
50.00 7.73 2181.08 10.12
51.00 9.33 2162.85 5.50
52.00 7.45 2075.16 7.84
53.00 9.79 2478.31 7.53
54.00 11.95 2120.96 7.62
55.00 9.57 2222.33 10.62
56.00 8.79 2117.68 7.45
57.00 8.91 2302.27 11.95
58.00 9.78 1946.39 9.49
59.00 7.56 2361.28 10.93
60.00 8.67 2319.86 6.43
61.00 11.23 2089.05 10.52
62.00 7.88 1791.36 6.73
63.00 9.32 2129.61 11.79
64.00 8.70 2067.80 9.04
65.00 6.50 2285.23 10.89
66.00 9.04 2137.54 8.38
67.00 9.05 1910.26 10.01
68.00 12.46 2100.67 9.65
69.00 6.70 2204.35 10.06
70.00 10.33 2092.86 8.17
71.00 10.57 2151.99 9.96
72.00 8.66 1889.04 6.59
73.00 7.95 2077.82 9.14
74.00 9.35 2046.29 8.07
75.00 10.55 1840.53 9.29
76.00 10.15 2098.42 11.13
77.00 8.41 2033.26 9.87
78.00 5.67 2223.95 7.50
79.00 8.38 1792.83 10.37
80.00 8.36 1990.69 10.59
81.00 8.15 1915.34 5.42
82.00 9.66 1949.40 10.88
83.00 9.26 1841.24 9.58
84.00 9.02 2237.37 6.01
85.00 9.73 1951.90 7.74
86.00 7.78 2094.26 6.73
87.00 12.31 1779.24 5.47
88.00 8.08 1978.97 8.56
89.00 10.02 2030.67 9.47
90.00 9.32 2492.26 9.64
91.00 9.16 2104.86 8.44
92.00 5.16 2496.60 10.98
93.00 6.61 1916.57 11.36
 94.00 10.53 1921.09 6.54
95.00 8.34 2078.97 6.86
96.00 10.44 1958.79 6.02
97.00 6.59 1785.18 6.56
98.00 5.87 1955.32 6.52
99.00 7.99 2056.09 8.96
100.00 5.92 2605.08 12.49
101.00 8.10 1960.04 10.24
102.00 7.81 2059.26 8.69
103.00 5.55 2280.61 7.27
104.00 9.90 2213.40 10.06
105.00 10.10 2000.92 10.11
106.00 8.92 2233.46 7.62
107.00 7.40 2073.54 8.40
108.00 8.17 1780.64 7.60
109.00 9.20 1899.00 8.31
110.00 8.00 2129.68 7.87
111.00 8.02 2154.93 8.64
112.00 8.96 2086.83 7.73
113.00 8.07 2093.67 9.35
114.00 12.38 2172.38 7.83
115.00 10.00 2022.73 8.79
116.00 9.56 2044.66 9.43
117.00 6.91 1857.52 7.89
118.00 6.57 1920.88 6.18
119.00 11.04 1990.12 11.62
120.00 11.59 2173.99 8.67
121.00 7.97 2187.12 9.93
122.00 9.67 2180.60 8.36
123.00 7.27 1947.51 5.43
124.00 10.89 2234.01 9.10
125.00 7.28 2367.21 10.89
126.00 8.40 2030.10 6.64
127.00 6.28 2157.79 10.28
128.00 9.54 2026.22 7.61
129.00 10.73 2254.04 8.15
130.00 10.33 2273.05 10.26
131.00 6.87 2363.23 11.29
132.00 11.10 1918.39 7.45
133.00 5.06 2348.39 7.66
134.00 9.79 1966.38 10.21
135.00 6.61 2276.80 9.12
136.00 8.70 2101.06 7.91
137.00 9.85 2026.04 3.84
138.00 14.54 1950.33 10.49
139.00 13.31 1987.36 6.81
140.00 10.15 1958.74 11.02
141.00 8.09 2550.13 8.78
142.00 10.98 2309.97 8.34
143.00 8.21 2347.94 8.21
144.00 9.40 1798.71 9.51
145.00 5.33 2207.34 5.37
146.00 10.87 1982.97 8.22
147.00 9.70 2002.41 12.13
148.00 11.16 2159.02 9.62
149.00 8.56 1949.06 7.77
150.00 6.76 2163.82 6.51
151.00 11.65 1892.97 8.74
152.00 9.02 2013.24 9.83
153.00 12.13 2143.07 8.09
154.00 9.03 1814.82 7.69
155.00 10.80 1744.93 10.30
156.00 6.95 2200.47 10.74
157.00 6.21 2173.48 8.54
158.00 8.35 1937.51 10.46
159.00 10.83 2309.23 6.77
160.00 8.63 2034.75 8.51
161.00 10.87 2126.79 6.28
162.00 8.20 2286.66 8.14
163.00 10.14 1853.40 10.63
164.00 12.84 1973.45 7.04
165.00 7.30 1771.10 8.67
166.00 8.11 1844.80 6.89
167.00 11.18 2179.32 7.60
168.00 7.83 2020.25 8.99
169.00 10.18 2166.03 10.02
170.00 7.45 1958.94 11.50
171.00 8.14 2119.60 9.66
172.00 8.62 2538.89 8.89
173.00 13.72 2234.11 6.61
174.00 8.94 1977.57 9.05
175.00 8.79 2144.92 11.24
176.00 9.52 2297.92 6.47
177.00 9.55 2044.86 9.33
178.00 10.53 1951.48 11.99
179.00 6.45 1989.45 7.87
180.00 11.55 2157.41 7.73
181.00 9.76 2248.56 9.53
182.00 8.75 2013.96 9.21
183.00 8.84 2220.74 7.68
184.00 9.33 2387.03 7.84
185.00 9.44 2338.88 4.46
186.00 6.52 1995.22 9.13
187.00 8.75 2301.03 8.51
188.00 10.00 2163.30 11.10
189.00 4.69 2209.47 6.67
190.00 9.85 1923.92 9.09
191.00 6.91 1809.49 5.66
192.00 7.38 1654.13 6.94
193.00 9.06 2087.72 6.06
194.00 8.85 2196.88 8.46
195.00 9.06 2021.52 7.97
196.00 11.31 2151.44 10.37
197.00 10.36 2127.12 9.90
198.00 10.00 1782.53 8.22
199.00 6.39 2167.71 13.25
200.00 9.42 2221.78 10.12
201.00 8.30 2419.27 7.59
202.00 8.73 1988.88 9.43
203.00 9.11 1968.31 7.95
204.00 8.34 1993.75 7.22
205.00 8.78 2096.52 6.22
206.00 8.56 2374.39 9.66
207.00 6.86 2098.44 4.83
208.00 6.74 2146.22 7.96
209.00 9.58 2052.10 7.37
210.00 10.68 2254.16 6.92
211.00 9.36 2045.89 7.25
212.00 6.35 2115.44 6.27
213.00 12.79 2370.99 8.80
214.00 9.77 2066.51 9.30
215.00 7.27 2151.11 8.44
216.00 11.06 2461.60 10.82
217.00 8.70 2112.08 11.71
218.00 10.95 2254.89 7.47
219.00 9.34 2175.15 9.74
220.00 7.30 2238.87 10.80
221.00 9.78 2023.34 6.48
222.00 7.25 2096.94 10.62
223.00 10.22 2221.07 7.27
224.00 11.98 2291.93 9.94
225.00 9.61 1966.19 7.06
226.00 7.58 2133.00 9.17
227.00 12.61 2290.40 7.74
228.00 8.56 2107.87 8.53
229.00 5.91 2032.44 8.16
230.00 10.02 1749.46 9.14
231.00 6.73 2357.11 9.96
232.00 9.99 2130.93 9.05
233.00 7.86 2224.84 8.63
234.00 5.93 2083.74 7.81
235.00 10.06 1859.82 11.53
236.00 8.34 2245.93 10.70
237.00 7.20 1853.57 7.07
238.00 8.94 2261.15 10.45
239.00 8.38 1985.66 4.97
240.00 7.73 2056.40 6.30
241.00 10.85 2144.93 11.04
242.00 11.77 2267.59 11.34
243.00 5.66 2069.63 6.86
244.00 8.25 1985.36 6.88
245.00 6.97 1974.88 8.83
246.00 10.76 2168.92 9.29
247.00 8.88 2360.41 9.45
248.00 6.04 2125.13 7.18
249.00 10.67 2025.84 10.51
250.00 7.72 2093.34 8.02
251.00 6.53 2189.25 11.05
252.00 11.23 1891.08 8.71
253.00 9.84 2276.21 10.33
254.00 7.50 1945.64 8.83
255.00 8.56 2149.29 7.11
256.00 11.17 2262.78 12.01
257.00 10.43 2128.05 7.35
258.00 8.00 2174.79 7.35
259.00 7.66 2295.72 7.70
260.00 9.11 2290.40 8.76
261.00 7.00 2014.84 5.63
262.00 6.37 2416.69 6.62
263.00 9.24 2248.96 6.73
264.00 10.83 2287.24 7.88
265.00 10.02 2179.86 6.34
266.00 10.45 2208.43 11.63
267.00 11.27 2294.21 9.36
268.00 13.21 2228.45 7.41
269.00 8.53 1899.48 5.58
270.00 8.71 2208.75 6.69
271.00 10.46 2342.84 7.05
272.00 11.63 2235.01 10.31
273.00 8.45 2034.28 9.03
274.00 8.71 2142.53 8.72
275.00 8.15 2175.90 5.78
276.00 9.52 1774.13 9.12
277.00 8.92 2387.10 11.74
278.00 8.08 2217.18 7.31
279.00 13.44 1884.15 9.30
280.00 8.74 2273.38 10.38
281.00 12.22 2035.85 9.60
282.00 7.85 1902.58 10.76
283.00 9.12 2141.42 12.21
284.00 5.58 2210.00 6.95
285.00 10.93 1871.53 11.69
286.00 6.99 2048.33 11.47
287.00 7.65 2244.42 7.63
288.00 9.53 2193.26 9.15
289.00 12.67 2064.37 7.19
290.00 8.40 1966.62 8.27
291.00 4.69 2154.61 9.80
292.00 6.85 2148.39 9.62
293.00 7.98 2322.26 7.17
294.00 6.80 2442.99 8.87
295.00 7.00 2202.81 8.86
296.00 10.38 2076.26 5.40
297.00 9.72 2187.01 6.29
298.00 6.73 2012.07 11.52
299.00 7.26 2208.97 11.42
300.00 8.99 2164.77 8.73
301.00 10.06 1958.33 9.28
302.00 7.41 2045.43 5.41
303.00 10.52 2010.79 9.53
304.00 11.33 2127.23 5.88
305.00 8.90 2345.32 8.69
306.00 9.85 2182.30 10.26
307.00 9.88 1961.44 7.87
308.00 9.54 2239.95 7.96
309.00 11.26 2217.16 9.46
310.00 6.72 1894.93 11.12
311.00 8.48 1820.79 8.21
312.00 9.92 1995.92 10.39
313.00 8.20 1912.83 14.00
314.00 9.33 2214.92 7.66
315.00 9.08 2293.40 4.91
316.00 5.86 2289.94 13.10
317.00 8.29 2122.48 9.76
318.00 10.21 2240.61 4.90
319.00 9.42 2179.07 9.96
320.00 10.87 2234.47 9.73
321.00 11.44 2330.52 8.84
322.00 9.41 2228.61 6.45
323.00 8.84 2136.93 11.72
324.00 9.69 2093.25 13.37
325.00 8.89 1899.52 5.44
326.00 8.94 1882.69 6.08
327.00 10.75 2162.35 9.55
328.00 6.70 2234.95 10.65
329.00 10.94 2141.47 5.75
330.00 7.19 1928.09 6.61
331.00 9.07 2139.07 7.30
332.00 8.89 2335.71 10.26
333.00 9.27 2060.29 8.21
334.00 5.83 2128.49 6.82
335.00 12.16 2082.98 7.64
336.00 7.11 1720.82 6.49
337.00 9.34 2218.59 6.84
338.00 7.94 1957.42 9.70
339.00 11.13 2335.29 12.91
340.00 6.24 2074.07 9.42
341.00 9.98 2081.59 8.34
342.00 10.88 2202.68 10.65
343.00 9.52 1994.02 7.15
344.00 10.74 1852.34 7.24
345.00 6.76 2125.44 8.84
346.00 7.02 2236.02 12.68
347.00 9.99 2161.32 4.81
348.00 8.35 1766.02 10.62
349.00 7.97 2329.52 5.47
350.00 5.33 2176.92 10.67
351.00 11.07 1814.56 7.45
352.00 7.91 2185.53 9.10
353.00 6.63 2239.59 6.91
354.00 11.52 2023.05 12.25
355.00 9.56 1976.99 6.71
356.00 7.48 2316.52 9.99
357.00 11.08 2094.26 10.56
358.00 7.63 2393.95 6.88
359.00 8.54 2126.08 9.37
360.00 8.92 2303.07 5.19
361.00 9.77 2301.28 9.42
362.00 12.69 1718.76 9.10
363.00 5.74 2123.27 10.26
364.00 6.76 1877.03 5.42
365.00 11.47 2185.59 7.50
366.00 8.12 1749.10 7.37
367.00 11.18 1732.36 8.39
368.00 4.89 2004.32 10.11
369.00 10.01 2142.59 9.74
370.00 7.60 1875.36 7.44
371.00 7.13 1713.65 6.62
372.00 7.34 2469.73 9.10
373.00 5.29 2399.06 11.68
374.00 10.74 2049.35 7.16
375.00 9.26 2445.92 11.01
376.00 9.04 2117.40 8.28
377.00 8.62 1920.77 6.90
378.00 6.57 2313.53 6.31
379.00 6.35 2553.20 10.09
380.00 7.91 1997.77 8.14
381.00 7.33 2270.92 6.61
382.00 8.44 2274.67 9.39
383.00 8.37 2369.98 7.33
384.00 6.43 2025.30 6.77
385.00 9.85 2099.51 10.45
386.00 10.24 1900.83 7.90
387.00 9.14 2054.20 10.97
388.00 7.34 2356.87 9.14
389.00 10.13 1958.05 8.86
390.00 7.22 2316.51 9.13
391.00 10.17 2223.97 10.23
392.00 9.24 2132.48 10.11
393.00 6.61 1922.72 8.62
394.00 8.23 2271.72 7.63
395.00 11.06 1859.19 7.77
396.00 10.95 2221.24 10.25
397.00 11.77 2350.02 5.44
398.00 10.71 2126.99 11.56
399.00 10.72 2067.35 12.56
400.00 6.53 1895.05 11.09
401.00 8.86 1900.69 8.67
402.00 3.67 1896.13 9.14
403.00 7.24 1675.69 9.00
404.00 7.30 2212.17 7.12
405.00 8.10 2054.00 6.92
406.00 9.39 2137.88 9.13
407.00 5.65 2409.85 7.90
408.00 8.14 2143.54 8.02
409.00 8.71 2245.25 9.67
410.00 9.61 2108.55 9.55
411.00 9.63 2403.29 9.01
412.00 11.21 2141.90 10.77
413.00 7.22 1798.98 7.78
414.00 9.08 2199.13 6.44
415.00 5.71 2175.58 7.50
416.00 9.84 2248.24 7.63
417.00 4.98 2155.37 11.50
418.00 8.85 1969.99 11.67
419.00 9.82 1803.89 9.28
420.00 7.93 2020.25 12.07
421.00 9.86 2018.22 9.74
422.00 7.91 1955.46 6.83
423.00 11.77 2203.71 7.70
424.00 9.03 2215.24 7.02
425.00 8.25 1840.63 11.36
426.00 9.55 2181.87 12.35
427.00 10.54 2128.61 9.29
428.00 9.37 2097.81 6.78
429.00 10.81 2451.30 6.67
430.00 10.81 2567.17 9.14
431.00 9.08 2330.27 13.77
432.00 9.49 2017.78 10.46
433.00 8.86 2038.14 11.31
434.00 9.12 1810.97 7.90
435.00 6.90 2297.17 7.60
436.00 8.98 2043.20 11.25
437.00 13.10 2213.83 9.34
438.00 11.21 1916.29 7.18
439.00 11.65 2422.76 7.01
440.00 8.79 2280.97 12.80
441.00 13.00 2079.33 11.61
442.00 8.55 1904.22 8.16
443.00 12.43 1875.33 10.99
444.00 10.93 2124.72 7.22
445.00 7.44 2138.34 12.38
446.00 7.97 2573.78 8.57
447.00 11.22 2051.72 6.94
448.00 7.91 2126.81 9.67
449.00 7.88 2202.30 8.46
450.00 8.17 1927.16 8.28
451.00 4.29 2096.65 8.40
452.00 9.49 1965.16 7.70
453.00 7.68 1902.24 8.16
454.00 10.62 1687.89 8.04
455.00 6.02 1974.12 12.55
456.00 7.92 1689.06 5.84
457.00 10.17 2271.55 11.55
458.00 9.63 2153.82 8.31
459.00 7.10 2349.11 7.77
460.00 8.24 2245.08 9.68
461.00 12.20 1803.49 11.29
462.00 10.13 1801.21 10.59
463.00 12.00 2160.05 9.45
464.00 7.99 2304.77 11.17
465.00 10.74 2000.45 6.30
466.00 10.04 1561.22 6.88
467.00 8.97 2189.65 9.55
468.00 10.39 2094.07 11.06
469.00 12.01 2358.08 8.14
470.00 8.51 2020.29 6.61
471.00 11.76 2200.67 9.20
472.00 7.06 2086.89 10.61
473.00 9.92 2182.79 6.97
474.00 9.29 2234.20 9.89
475.00 11.79 2239.42 9.33
476.00 8.23 2062.62 8.43
477.00 9.27 2434.85 6.10
478.00 9.13 2287.08 9.31
479.00 9.43 1870.26 7.16
480.00 10.02 2105.83 4.49
481.00 9.94 2078.06 3.62
482.00 6.74 1868.21 6.60
483.00 7.69 1980.46 11.10
484.00 9.44 2226.85 6.66
485.00 7.46 2143.88 8.52
486.00 8.78 1900.83 8.97
487.00 8.65 2318.46 12.98
488.00 8.15 2226.06 9.74
489.00 8.99 2244.62 6.88
490.00 9.03 1934.08 6.60
491.00 9.16 2112.30 9.45
492.00 11.15 2099.01 6.57
493.00 7.79 1809.61 10.21
494.00 8.46 1927.87 10.64
495.00 6.41 1793.00 10.79
496.00 5.07 1980.63 10.41
497.00 11.37 1833.50 9.90
498.00 8.22 2008.50 8.71
499.00 9.59 2121.87 5.43
500.00 6.61 2311.92 7.96
.909188309 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Initial Inv
3090.85199622519
Sales 6.217998 6.2179980783 6.21799807834 6.21799807834
SP 65 67.6 70.304 73.11616

Revenue 404.1699 420.3366701 437.150136899 454.636142375

MC 6.5 6.695 6.89585 7.1027255

LC 3.5 3.675 3.85875 4.0516875
Overhead 5 5.25 5.5125 5.788125

Variable Cost 0 0 0 0
Fixed Cost 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5
Marketing Exp 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Op Profit BDIT 329.9199 346.0866701 362.900136899 380.386142375
Depriciation 155.836 155.83599946 155.835999461 155.835999461
PBIT 174.0839 190.25067063 207.064137439 224.550142915
Tax 52.22516 57.07520119 62.1192412316 67.3650428744
PAT 121.8587 133.17546944 144.944896207 157.18510004
Add Depriciation 277.6947 289.01146891 300.780895668 313.021099501
WC 121.250962527568 126.101 131.14504107 136.390842713 141.846476421
NWC 121.250962527568 4.850039 5.0440400411 5.24580164279 5.4556337085
Terminal CF
FCF -3212.10295875276 272.8447 283.96742886 295.535094025 307.565465792

NPV ($3,160.33)
IRR 9%
Profitability Index $0.02

Summary of Simulation Results

NPV
-3206.85 No. of Trials 500
-3266.50 Simulated Input Variables
-3383.14 Units Sold Project Cost
-3163.58
-3065.03 Mean 8.95 2102.09
-3055.20 Standard deviation 1.804070959 178.0864891
-3103.95 Maximum 14.54 2605.08
-3071.86 Minimum 3.67 1561.22
-3197.94
-3347.34 Median
-3120.87 Probability of NPV > 0
-2990.50 Coefficient of variation
-2963.36
1
-3241.35
-3373.40 0.9
-3118.60 0.8
-3317.47 0.7
-2940.48
0.6
-3319.24
0.5
-2928.49
-3264.08 0.4
-3355.25 0.3
-3235.96 0.2
-3251.40
0.1
-3256.37
-3265.28 0
-3144.54
-3370.87
-3177.01 NPV
-3499.18
-3617.43
-3234.73
-3029.82
-3146.73
-3337.91
-3139.73
-3050.33
-3056.09
-3081.80
-3165.61
-3421.29
-3090.76
-3298.65
-3184.60
-3395.92
-3146.45
-3094.46
-3358.96
-3392.78
-2976.48
-3305.71
-3286.71
-3188.43
-3622.93
-3300.54
-3377.92
-3249.11
-3450.17
-3102.91
-3484.36
-3441.82
-3271.92
-2907.38
-3284.46
-3205.05
-3391.25
-3277.10
-3056.99
-3299.72
-3312.18
-3251.54
-3321.92
-3014.74
-3203.61
-3189.60
-3008.90
-3265.40
-3168.70
-3308.44
-2930.27
-3127.43
-3024.82
-3108.31
-2990.32
-3361.46
-3099.87
-3206.89
-2945.06
-3105.20
-3190.43
-3639.56
-3246.67
-3579.98
-3026.64
-3072.80
-3200.56
-3104.54
-2881.92
-3040.49
-3181.98
-3702.97
-3091.85
-3181.43
-3362.12
-3372.57
-3164.46
-3367.05
-3188.26
-2905.41
-3041.98
-3251.21
-3279.71
-3222.43
-3221.88
-3359.57
-3179.56
-3196.94
-2964.12
-3014.44
-3173.52
-3354.29
-3315.10
-3329.58
-3045.25
-3405.18
-3485.58
-3151.47
-3259.42
-3170.22
-3417.77
-3439.69
-3475.64
-3085.27
-3423.62
-3125.33
-3380.51
-3233.44
-3131.52
-3187.41
-3181.14
-3125.98
-3674.59
-3478.29
-3473.00
-2949.98
-3277.14
-3150.70
-3164.81
-3337.01
-3079.55
-3260.24
-3075.92
-3158.52
-3328.48
-2952.68
-2921.41
-3313.86
-3269.84
-3074.00
-3464.72
-3168.98
-3279.80
-3411.49
-3019.83
-3162.49
-2886.63
-2964.69
-3346.97
-3143.95
-3329.78
-3082.92
-3249.82
-3672.12
-3430.02
-3119.01
-3289.77
-3432.35
-3196.69
-3127.66
-3088.30
-3331.65
-3403.46
-3152.89
-3353.44
-3527.15
-3448.58
-3098.82
-3435.91
-3327.62
-3276.79
-3080.08
-2905.25
-2764.91
-3213.74
-3333.61
-3160.17
-3334.82
-3293.58
-2937.95
-3275.90
-3373.47
-3542.30
-3128.28
-3107.88
-3117.98
-3219.84
-3510.12
-3184.21
-3248.82
-3195.14
-3409.02
-3184.94
-3205.02
-3569.67
-3221.64
-3263.65
-3641.14
-3256.58
-3417.64
-3324.53
-3357.86
-3163.33
-3215.38
-3371.90
-3483.74
-3108.28
-3252.75
-3479.93
-3240.78
-3123.69
-2909.42
-3464.53
-3288.23
-3346.68
-3173.93
-3027.40
-3381.69
-2961.11
-3405.90
-3092.82
-3165.91
-3323.10
-3461.25
-3152.49
-3106.31
-3084.78
-3339.11
-3500.54
-3214.44
-3199.75
-3211.35
-3296.43
-3067.34
-3435.06
-3064.06
-3275.24
-3448.42
-3283.18
-3293.58
-3410.37
-3431.94
-3110.02
-3506.47
-3381.75
-3450.74
-3321.02
-3381.31
-3472.21
-3424.67
-3015.54
-3333.78
-3494.99
-3422.98
-3167.76
-3278.34
-3286.57
-2925.93
-3534.38
-3336.69
-3098.14
-3414.67
-3231.12
-3031.83
-3293.89
-3291.14
-3053.83
-3164.32
-3358.89
-3343.40
-3251.74
-3096.74
-3229.93
-3257.78
-3438.88
-3548.06
-3312.23
-3213.50
-3323.53
-3123.95
-3328.71
-3304.93
-3118.39
-3144.01
-3178.89
-3282.46
-3483.04
-3341.52
-3112.27
-3384.64
-3395.84
-3006.42
-2952.71
-3157.48
-3053.53
-3354.90
-3405.95
-3388.65
-3255.43
-3367.67
-3330.42
-3408.01
-3508.48
-3361.82
-3283.73
-3257.67
-3019.04
-3008.69
-3333.46
-3343.95
-3289.72
-3032.73
-3273.64
-3478.80
-3203.08
-3213.30
-3266.12
-2825.02
-3353.69
-3085.30
-3522.30
-3173.66
-3235.74
-3379.79
-3135.13
-3012.85
-3231.38
-3353.74
-3284.88
-2903.57
-3433.86
-3263.80
-2981.51
-3310.02
-3335.70
-3216.05
-3115.88
-3436.17
-3274.75
-3503.43
-3261.64
-3416.94
-3455.75
-2920.55
-3216.35
-2968.56
-3356.77
-2872.29
-2907.07
-3083.94
-3302.80
-2990.30
-2818.85
-3583.90
-3485.96
-3208.09
-3596.64
-3256.58
-3047.76
-3405.19
-3653.95
-3119.74
-3375.23
-3408.04
-3493.04
-3119.20
-3259.66
-3057.65
-3204.51
-3471.78
-3117.54
-3429.67
-3388.15
-3281.63
-3026.68
-3394.74
-3027.92
-3398.08
-3503.87
-3304.40
-3247.53
-3003.41
-3039.88
-2955.43
-2791.72
-3319.16
-3172.68
-3286.00
-3494.34
-3267.65
-3383.93
-3261.88
-3553.37
-3325.06
-2910.09
-3327.79
-3260.96
-3395.62
-3237.79
-3117.35
-2960.98
-3152.94
-3176.60
-3071.49
-3380.75
-3347.05
-2977.99
-3341.61
-3295.57
-3233.71
-3604.74
-3735.61
-3484.33
-3172.54
-3184.65
-2951.25
-3400.05
-3191.59
-3421.00
-3082.95
-3591.40
-3428.57
-3294.94
-3036.48
-3080.21
-3286.23
-3263.12
-3695.48
-3215.91
-3253.41
-3324.03
-3054.06
-3163.30
-3109.16
-3021.27
-2852.43
-3075.82
-2800.62
-3439.37
-3301.99
-3455.46
-3376.34
-3005.75
-2967.50
-3350.68
-3435.62
-3152.55
-2710.78
-3332.39
-3264.82
-3540.87
-3143.16
-3386.08
-3202.19
-3327.53
-3383.05
-3425.76
-3190.30
-3561.78
-3431.03
-3010.90
-3225.12
-3178.46
-2966.69
-3107.48
-3362.09
-3259.62
-3039.92
-3463.95
-3356.23
-3374.69
-3064.91
-3258.12
-3258.77
-2937.05
-3066.70
-2899.19
-3063.69
-3017.33
-3137.43
-3248.77
-3411.72
 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

6.21799807834 6.21799807834 6.21799807834

76.0408064 79.08243866 82.2457362

472.82158807 491.734451618 511.403829643

7.315807265 7.535281483 7.761339927

4.254271875 4.466985469 4.690334742
6.07753125 6.381407813 6.700478203

0 0 0
67.5 67.5 67.5
6.75 6.75 6.75
398.57158807 417.484451618 437.153829643
155.835999461 155.835999461 155.835999461
242.73558861 261.648452157 281.317830182
72.8206765829 78.4945356472 84.3953490547
169.914912027 183.15391651 196.922481128
325.750911487 338.989915971 352.758480588
147.520335485 153.421148893 0
5.67385906431 5.90081340748 -153.421148893
3000.00
320.077052423 333.089102563 3506.18

d Input Variables Key Results

WACC NPV

8.73 -3240.12
1.900998894 178.2644884
14.00 -2710.78
3.62 -3735.61
-3254.42
0%
-0.05501785589
Chart Data Count
Range 500 Percent
-3735.61 0 9%
-3468.78 #N/A 50%
-3201.95 #N/A 36%
-2935.12 #N/A 5%
-2668.29 #N/A 0%
-2401.46 #N/A 0%
-2134.63 #N/A 0%
-1867.81 #N/A 0%
-1600.98 #N/A 0%
-1334.15 #N/A 0%
-1067.32 #N/A 0%
-800.49 #N/A 0%
-533.66 #N/A 0%
-266.83 #N/A 0%
0.00 #N/A 0%
266.83 #N/A 0%
533.66 #N/A 0%
800.49 #N/A 0%
1067.32 #N/A 0%
1334.15 #N/A 0%
1600.98 #N/A 0%
1867.81 #N/A 0%
2134.63 #N/A 0%
2401.46 #N/A 0%
2668.29 #N/A 0%
2935.12 #N/A 0%
3201.95 #N/A 0%
3468.78 #N/A 0%
3735.61 #N/A 0%
Sum 0.00 499.00 1.00
Given Cash Flows
Sale 9 million
SP 65 per sachet
VC 15 per sachet
MC 6.5
LC 3.5
Overhead 5
FC 6.75 per sachet
Marketing 25 million
Inflation
Price
Var Overhead & 4%
Labour 5%
MC 3%
WorkingDepriciable
Project Capital 30%
Cost
Project 2100 million
Opportunity cost 1000 million
Tax 0.30
Recovery
Building 2000.00 million
Salvage 1000.00 million
Sale Value 1000.00 million

Project Life 7 years

Req Rate 0.0865

Sensitivity Analysis
Deviations Wacc NPV Units sold
$252.28
-30% 0.06055 754.439156 6.3
-15% 0.073525 492.296869 7.65
0% 0.0865 252.280025 9
15% 0.099475 32.2246465 10.35
30% 0.11245 -169.79658 11.7

NPV
Deviations WACC Units Sold Sale Value
 -30% 754.4391561-257.245958 84.43319646
-15% 492.2968691-2.48296676 168.3566108
0% 252.2800252252.2800252252.2800252
15% 32.22464652507.0430171311.0264152
30% -169.796578761.806009 369.7728053

Scenario Analysis
NPV IRR
Best Case 25% $1,393.56 13%
Base Case 50% $252.28 10%
Worst Case 25% ($742.51) 6%

Expected $288.90 $0.10

Stdev 756.102669
Coef of Variation Stdev/Mean $2.62

Also create a scenario summary

 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Initial Inv
3100
Sales 9 9 9 9 9 9
SP 65 67.6 70.304 73.11616 76.04080679.082438

Revenue 585 608.4 632.736 658.04544684.36725711.74194

MC 6.5 6.695 6.89585 7.10272557.31580727.5352814

LC 3.5 3.675 3.85875 4.05168754.25427184.4669854
Overhead 5 5.25 5.5125 5.788125 6.07753126.3814078

Variable Cost 135 140.58 146.4039 152.48284158.82849165.45307

Fixed Cost 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5
Marketing Exp 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Op Profit BDIT 375.75 393.57 412.0821 431.31259451.28876472.03887
Depriciation 157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285157.14285
PBIT 218.60714236.42714254.93924274.16974294.14590314.89601
Tax 65.58214270.92814276.48177282.25092288.24377294.468805
PAT 153.025 165.499 178.45747191.91881205.90213220.42721
Add Depriciation 310.16785322.64185335.60032349.06167363.04499377.57006
WC 175.5 182.52 189.8208 197.41363205.31017213.52258222.06348
NWC 175.5 7.02 7.3008 7.592832 7.89654528.21240708.5409033
Terminal CF
FCF -3275.5 303.14785315.34105328.00749341.16513354.83258369.02916

NPV ($3,275.50)
IRR 10%
Profitability Index $0.00

NPV Sale Value NPV

$252.28 $252.28
-257.24595870781 700 84.4332
-2.48296676873861 850 168.3566
252.280025170333 1000 252.28
507.043017109406 1150 311.0264
761.806009048477 1300 369.7728

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
4.43319646 1
68.3566108 0.9
52.2800252 0.8
11.0264152 0.7
0.6
69.7728053
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
1220272.616
1341.316536 WACC Units Sold Sale Value
1063809.735

$571,691.25
Year 7

9
82.2457362

740.2116258

7.761339927
4.690334742
6.700478203

172.3693759
67.5
6.75
493.59225
157.1428571
336.4493928
100.9348178
235.514575
392.6574321
0
-222.0634877
3000.00
3614.72
 15% 30%

Value