Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 13

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple 0.97134
R Square 0.94349
Adjusted0.94268
Standard0.10394
Observat 142

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regressi 2 25.075 12.5375 1160.44 2E-87
Residual 139 1.50177 0.0108
Total 141 26.5768

Coefficients
Standard Errort Stat P-valueLower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercep 0.23228 0.11177 2.07827 0.03952 0.0113 0.45327 0.0113 0.45327
X Variabl 1.17428 0.08313 14.1263 1E-28 1.00993 1.33864 1.00993 1.33864
X Variabl -0.2149 0.08238 -2.6084 0.01009 -0.3777 -0.052 -0.3777 -0.052
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.71627
R Square 0.51304
Adjusted R Squa0.49022
Standard Error 0.11744
Observations 135

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 1.86 0.31 22.4762 6E-18
Residual 128 1.76542 0.01379
Total 134 3.62542

Coefficients
Standard Errort Stat P-valueLower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.01049 0.01023 1.02538 0.30712 -0.0098 0.03075 -0.0098 0.03075
X Variable 1 0.80912 0.0845 9.57556 1E-16 0.64193 0.97632 0.64193 0.97632
X Variable 2 -0.799 0.10459 -7.639 4E-12 -1.0059 -0.592 -1.0059 -0.592
X Variable 3 0.49313 0.11084 4.44888 2E-05 0.27381 0.71245 0.27381 0.71245
X Variable 4 -0.6959 0.11084 -6.279 5E-09 -0.9153 -0.4766 -0.9153 -0.4766
X Variable 5 0.42446 0.10447 4.06301 8E-05 0.21775 0.63117 0.21775 0.63117
X Variable 6 -0.2804 0.08539 -3.2835 0.00132 -0.4493 -0.1114 -0.4493 -0.1114
Month Price Yt-1 Yt-2 Yt^ Et Et-1 Et-2 Et-3
Jan-49 4.7185
Feb-49 4.77068 4.7185
Mar-49 4.8828 4.77068 4.7185
Apr-49 4.85981 4.8828 4.77068 4.82055 0.0392648
May-49 4.79579 4.85981 4.8828 4.94099 -0.1452012 0.03926482
Jun-49 4.90527 4.79579 4.85981 4.8899 0.0153699 -0.14520121 0.0392648
Jul-49 4.99721 4.90527 4.79579 4.81966 0.1775474 0.01536994 -0.1452012 0.03926482
Aug-49 4.99721 4.99721 4.90527 4.96199 0.0352256 0.1775474 0.0153699 -0.14520121
Sep-49 4.91265 4.99721 4.99721 5.04642 -0.1337674 0.03522557 0.1775474 0.01536994
Oct-49 4.77912 4.91265 4.99721 5.02667 -0.2475441 -0.13376743 0.0352256 0.1775474
Nov-49 4.64439 4.77912 4.91265 4.92737 -0.2829825 -0.24754414 -0.1337674 0.03522557
Dec-49 4.77068 4.64439 4.77912 4.78874 -0.0180541 -0.28298249 -0.2475441 -0.13376743
Jan-50 4.74493 4.77068 4.64439 4.65922 0.0857155 -0.01805412 -0.2829825 -0.24754414
Feb-50 4.83628 4.74493 4.77068 4.83647 -0.0001893 0.08571549 -0.0180541 -0.28298249
Mar-50 4.94876 4.83628 4.74493 4.77909 0.1696662 -0.00018932 0.0857155 -0.01805412
Apr-50 4.90527 4.94876 4.83628 4.8919 0.0133772 0.1696662 -0.0001893 0.08571549
May-50 4.82831 4.90527 4.94876 5.00435 -0.1760364 0.01337719 0.1696662 -0.00018932
Jun-50 5.00395 4.82831 4.90527 4.92912 0.0748282 -0.17603636 0.0133772 0.1696662
Jul-50 5.1358 5.00395 4.82831 4.84809 0.2877107 0.07482825 -0.1760364 0.01337719
Aug-50 5.1358 5.1358 5.00395 5.07087 0.0649318 0.28771069 0.0748282 -0.17603636
Sep-50 5.0626 5.1358 5.1358 5.18796 -0.1253649 0.06493178 0.2877107 0.07482825
Oct-50 4.89035 5.0626 5.1358 5.15963 -0.2692797 -0.12536494 0.0649318 0.28771069
Nov-50 4.7362 4.89035 5.0626 5.07367 -0.3374689 -0.26927967 -0.1253649 0.06493178
Dec-50 4.94164 4.7362 4.89035 4.88713 0.0545111 -0.33746889 -0.2692797 -0.12536494
Jan-51 4.97673 4.94164 4.7362 4.74313 0.2336083 0.05451114 -0.3374689 -0.26927967
Feb-51 5.01064 4.97673 4.94164 5.0175 -0.0068619 0.23360826 0.0545111 -0.33746889
Mar-51 5.18178 5.01064 4.97673 5.01456 0.1672232 -0.0068619 0.2336083 0.05451114
Apr-51 5.09375 5.18178 5.01064 5.04683 0.0469199 0.16722315 -0.0068619 0.23360826
May-51 5.14749 5.09375 5.18178 5.24052 -0.0930277 0.04691991 0.1672232 -0.0068619
Jun-51 5.18178 5.14749 5.09375 5.10037 0.0814121 -0.09302774 0.0469199 0.16722315
Jul-51 5.2933 5.18178 5.14749 5.1824 0.1109066 0.08141211 -0.0930277 0.04691991
Aug-51 5.2933 5.2933 5.18178 5.21112 0.0821897 0.11090663 0.0814121 -0.09302774
Sep-51 5.21494 5.2933 5.2933 5.3347 -0.1197692 0.08218966 0.1109066 0.08141211
Oct-51 5.0876 5.21494 5.2933 5.31074 -0.2231459 -0.11976916 0.0821897 0.11090663
Nov-51 4.98361 5.0876 5.21494 5.21871 -0.2351082 -0.22314591 -0.1197692 0.08218966
Dec-51 5.11199 4.98361 5.0876 5.08602 0.0259662 -0.23510821 -0.2231459 -0.11976916
Jan-52 5.14166 5.11199 4.98361 4.99127 0.1503937 0.02596617 -0.2351082 -0.22314591
Feb-52 5.19296 5.14166 5.11199 5.16437 0.0285869 0.15039369 0.0259662 -0.23510821
Mar-52 5.26269 5.19296 5.14166 5.17163 0.0910579 0.0285869 0.1503937 0.02596617
Apr-52 5.1985 5.26269 5.19296 5.22549 -0.0269916 0.09105787 0.0285869 0.15039369
May-52 5.20949 5.1985 5.26269 5.29635 -0.0868677 -0.02699164 0.0910579 0.0285869
Jun-52 5.3845 5.20949 5.1985 5.20599 0.1785057 -0.08686772 -0.0269916 0.09105787
Jul-52 5.43808 5.3845 5.20949 5.23269 0.2053924 0.17850574 -0.0868677 -0.02699164
Aug-52 5.48894 5.43808 5.3845 5.43584 0.0531022 0.20539242 0.1785057 -0.08686772
Sep-52 5.34233 5.48894 5.43808 5.46115 -0.11882 0.05310221 0.2053924 0.17850574
Oct-52 5.25227 5.34233 5.48894 5.50936 -0.2570893 -0.11882 0.0531022 0.20539242
Nov-52 5.14749 5.25227 5.34233 5.32628 -0.1787864 -0.25708927 -0.11882 0.05310221
Dec-52 5.26786 5.14749 5.25227 5.25202 0.0158333 -0.17878636 -0.2570893 -0.11882
Jan-53 5.27811 5.26786 5.14749 5.14834 0.1297785 0.01583335 -0.1787864 -0.25708927
Feb-53 5.27811 5.27811 5.26786 5.31219 -0.0340764 0.12977848 0.0158333 -0.17878636
Mar-53 5.46383 5.27811 5.27811 5.29837 0.1654594 -0.0340764 0.1297785 0.01583335
Apr-53 5.45959 5.46383 5.27811 5.29617 0.1634169 0.16545936 -0.0340764 0.12977848
May-53 5.43372 5.45959 5.46383 5.51425 -0.080531 0.16341689 0.1654594 -0.0340764
Jun-53 5.49306 5.43372 5.45959 5.46936 0.0237 -0.08053099 0.1634169 0.16545936
Jul-53 5.57595 5.49306 5.43372 5.4399 0.1360463 0.02369999 -0.080531 0.16341689
Aug-53 5.6058 5.57595 5.49306 5.51514 0.0906607 0.13604631 0.0237 -0.08053099
Sep-53 5.46806 5.6058 5.57595 5.59972 -0.1316644 0.0906607 0.1360463 0.02369999
Oct-53 5.35186 5.46806 5.6058 5.61697 -0.2651121 -0.13166443 0.0906607 0.13604631
Nov-53 5.19296 5.35186 5.46806 5.44881 -0.2558509 -0.2651121 -0.1316644 0.0906607
Dec-53 5.3033 5.19296 5.35186 5.34195 -0.0386456 -0.25585095 -0.2651121 -0.13166443
Jan-54 5.31812 5.3033 5.19296 5.18032 0.137796 -0.03864564 -0.2558509 -0.2651121
Feb-54 5.23644 5.31812 5.3033 5.34405 -0.1076051 0.137796 -0.0386456 -0.25585095
Mar-54 5.45959 5.23644 5.31812 5.33773 0.121852 -0.10760506 0.137796 -0.03864564
Apr-54 5.42495 5.45959 5.23644 5.23864 0.1863129 0.12185198 -0.1076051 0.137796
May-54 5.45532 5.42495 5.45959 5.51822 -0.0628998 0.18631288 0.121852 -0.10760506
Jun-54 5.57595 5.45532 5.42495 5.4296 0.1463471 -0.06289978 0.1863129 0.12185198
Jul-54 5.71043 5.57595 5.45532 5.47271 0.2377186 0.1463471 -0.0628998 0.18631288
Aug-54 5.68017 5.71043 5.57595 5.60783 0.0723387 0.23771861 0.1463471 -0.06289978
Sep-54 5.55683 5.68017 5.71043 5.73983 -0.1830014 0.07233875 0.2377186 0.1463471
Oct-54 5.43372 5.55683 5.68017 5.67541 -0.2416849 -0.18300141 0.0723387 0.23771861
Nov-54 5.31321 5.43372 5.55683 5.53707 -0.2238604 -0.24168487 -0.1830014 0.07233875
Dec-54 5.43372 5.31321 5.43372 5.41901 0.0147138 -0.22386036 -0.2416849 -0.18300141
Jan-55 5.48894 5.43372 5.31321 5.30394 0.1849975 0.01471379 -0.2238604 -0.24168487
Feb-55 5.45104 5.48894 5.43372 5.47136 -0.020317 0.18499746 0.0147138 -0.22386036
Mar-55 5.58725 5.45104 5.48894 5.5103 0.0769497 -0.02031703 0.1849975 0.01471379
Apr-55 5.59471 5.58725 5.45104 5.45393 0.1407811 0.0769497 -0.020317 0.18499746
May-55 5.59842 5.59471 5.58725 5.62202 -0.023601 0.14078112 0.0769497 -0.02031703
Jun-55 5.75257 5.59842 5.59471 5.60152 0.1510539 -0.02360099 0.1407811 0.0769497
Jul-55 5.89715 5.75257 5.59842 5.60427 0.2928814 0.15105394 -0.023601 0.14078112
Aug-55 5.84932 5.89715 5.75257 5.78449 0.0648332 0.29288143 0.1510539 -0.02360099
Sep-55 5.743 5.84932 5.89715 5.92115 -0.1781451 0.06483321 0.2928814 0.15105394
Oct-55 5.61313 5.743 5.84932 5.83392 -0.220789 -0.17814509 0.0648332 0.29288143
Nov-55 5.46806 5.61313 5.743 5.71934 -0.2512825 -0.22078903 -0.1781451 0.06483321
Dec-55 5.62762 5.46806 5.61313 5.58968 0.0379431 -0.2512825 -0.220789 -0.17814509
Jan-56 5.64897 5.62762 5.46806 5.44723 0.2017406 0.03794308 -0.2512825 -0.22078903
Feb-56 5.62402 5.64897 5.62762 5.66577 -0.0417566 0.20174059 0.0379431 -0.2512825
Mar-56 5.7589 5.62402 5.64897 5.65656 0.102338 -0.04175664 0.2017406 0.03794308
Apr-56 5.7462 5.7589 5.62402 5.62267 0.1235339 0.10233802 -0.0417566 0.20174059
May-56 5.76205 5.7462 5.7589 5.78642 -0.0243726 0.12353385 0.102338 -0.04175664
Jun-56 5.92426 5.76205 5.7462 5.74253 0.1817262 -0.02437264 0.1235339 0.10233802
Jul-56 6.02345 5.92426 5.76205 5.76387 0.2595792 0.18172619 -0.0243726 0.12353385
Aug-56 6.00389 6.02345 5.92426 5.95094 0.0529502 0.25957917 0.1817262 -0.02437264
Sep-56 5.87212 6.00389 6.02345 6.03256 -0.1604453 0.05295018 0.2595792 0.18172619
Oct-56 5.72359 5.87212 6.00389 5.98828 -0.264695 -0.16044528 0.0529502 0.25957917
Nov-56 5.60212 5.72359 5.87212 5.83775 -0.2356299 -0.26469496 -0.1604453 0.05295018
Dec-56 5.72359 5.60212 5.72359 5.69164 0.0319423 -0.23562989 -0.264695 -0.16044528
Jan-57 5.75257 5.72359 5.60212 5.58092 0.1716502 0.03194233 -0.2356299 -0.26469496
Feb-57 5.70711 5.75257 5.72359 5.74966 -0.0425474 0.17165024 0.0319423 -0.23562989
Mar-57 5.87493 5.70711 5.75257 5.7576 0.1173331 -0.0425474 0.1716502 0.03194233
Apr-57 5.8522 5.87493 5.70711 5.69798 0.1542191 0.11733307 -0.0425474 0.17165024
May-57 5.87212 5.8522 5.87493 5.90482 -0.0327028 0.15421905 0.1173331 -0.0425474
Jun-57 6.04501 5.87212 5.8522 5.84207 0.2029338 -0.03270278 0.1542191 0.11733307
Jul-57 6.14204 6.04501 5.87212 5.87034 0.2716961 0.20293384 -0.0327028 0.15421905
Aug-57 6.14633 6.14204 6.04501 6.06908 0.0772484 0.2716961 0.2029338 -0.03270278
Sep-57 6.00141 6.14633 6.14204 6.14588 -0.1444606 0.0772484 0.2716961 0.20293384
Oct-57 5.84932 6.00141 6.14633 6.13007 -0.2807411 -0.14446057 0.0772484 0.2716961
Nov-57 5.72031 5.84932 6.00141 5.95897 -0.2386616 -0.28074115 -0.1444606 0.0772484
Dec-57 5.81711 5.72031 5.84932 5.81151 0.0055967 -0.23866156 -0.2807411 -0.14446057
Jan-58 5.82895 5.81711 5.72031 5.6927 0.1362491 0.00559667 -0.2386616 -0.28074115
Feb-58 5.76205 5.82895 5.81711 5.83409 -0.0720361 0.1362491 0.0055967 -0.23866156
Mar-58 5.89164 5.76205 5.82895 5.82719 0.0644591 -0.07203607 0.1362491 0.00559667
Apr-58 5.8522 5.89164 5.76205 5.74609 0.106113 0.06445913 -0.0720361 0.1362491
May-58 5.8944 5.8522 5.89164 5.91264 -0.0182388 0.10611299 0.0644591 -0.07203607
Jun-58 6.07535 5.8944 5.8522 5.83848 0.2368658 -0.01823884 0.106113 0.06445913
Jul-58 6.19644 6.07535 5.8944 5.89651 0.2999339 0.2368658 -0.0182388 0.10611299
Aug-58 6.22456 6.19644 6.07535 6.09992 0.1246374 0.29993389 0.2368658 -0.01823884
Sep-58 6.00141 6.22456 6.19644 6.20324 -0.2018301 0.12463741 0.2999339 0.2368658
Oct-58 5.88332 6.00141 6.22456 6.21024 -0.3269163 -0.20183009 0.1246374 0.29993389
Nov-58 5.73657 5.88332 6.00141 5.94216 -0.2055919 -0.32691626 -0.2018301 0.12463741
Dec-58 5.82008 5.73657 5.88332 5.85144 -0.0313543 -0.20559187 -0.3269163 -0.20183009
Jan-59 5.8861 5.82008 5.73657 5.70449 0.1816182 -0.03135435 -0.2055919 -0.32691626
Feb-59 5.83481 5.8861 5.82008 5.83408 0.0007275 0.18161816 -0.0313543 -0.20559187
Mar-59 6.00635 5.83481 5.8861 5.89367 0.1126865 0.0007275 0.1816182 -0.03135435
Apr-59 5.98141 6.00635 5.83481 5.81925 0.1621664 0.1126865 0.0007275 0.18161816
May-59 6.04025 5.98141 6.00635 6.03171 0.0085462 0.16216637 0.1126865 0.0007275
Jun-59 6.15698 6.04025 5.98141 5.96556 0.1914153 0.0085462 0.1621664 0.1126865
Jul-59 6.30628 6.15698 6.04025 6.04002 0.2662576 0.1914153 0.0085462 0.16216637
Aug-59 6.32615 6.30628 6.15698 6.16444 0.1617076 0.26625759 0.1914153 0.0085462
Sep-59 6.13773 6.32615 6.30628 6.31468 -0.1769502 0.16170763 0.2662576 0.1914153
Oct-59 6.00881 6.13773 6.32615 6.30594 -0.2971225 -0.17695016 0.1617076 0.26625759
Nov-59 5.89164 6.00881 6.13773 6.0804 -0.18876 -0.29712252 -0.1769502 0.16170763
Dec-59 6.00389 5.89164 6.00881 5.96951 0.0343777 -0.18875999 -0.2971225 -0.17695016
Jan-60 6.03309 6.00389 5.89164 5.85962 0.1734665 0.03437767 -0.18876 -0.29712252
Feb-60 5.96871 6.03309 6.00389 6.0166 -0.0478932 0.17346645 0.0343777 -0.18875999
Mar-60 6.03787 5.96871 6.03309 6.02677 0.0110998 -0.0478932 0.1734665 0.03437767
Apr-60 6.1334 6.03787 5.96871 5.9449 0.1884997 0.01109982 -0.0478932 0.17346645
May-60 6.15698 6.1334 6.03787 6.03995 0.1170302 0.18849971 0.0110998 -0.0478932
Jun-60 6.28227 6.15698 6.1334 6.13726 0.1450034 0.11703025 0.1884997 0.01109982
Jul-60 6.43294 6.28227 6.15698 6.14443 0.288512 0.14500338 0.1170302 0.18849971
Aug-60 6.40688 6.43294 6.28227 6.28648 0.1203956 0.28851203 0.1450034 0.11703025
Sep-60 6.23048 6.40688 6.43294 6.4365 -0.2060153 0.12039557 0.288512 0.14500338
Oct-60 6.1334 6.23048 6.40688 6.37352 -0.2401215 -0.20601533 0.1203956 0.28851203
Nov-60 5.96615 6.1334 6.23048 6.17198 -0.2058307 -0.24012151 -0.2060153 0.12039557
Dec-60 6.06843 5.96615 6.1334 6.09588 -0.0274514 -0.20583068 -0.2401215 -0.20601533
Et-4 Et-5 Et-6 Et^ ARIMA alpha b1 b2
0.23228 1.17428 -0.214871

beta c1 c2
0.01049 0.80912 -0.798977

0.0392648
-0.145201 0.0392648
0.0153699 -0.1452012 0.0392648
0.1775474 0.0153699 -0.1452012 -0.12166901
0.0352256 0.1775474 0.0153699 -0.14187909 4.6363650952
-0.133767 0.0352256 0.1775474 -0.04011832 4.6086037549
-0.247544 -0.1337674 0.0352256 0.15817731 4.9841539776
-0.282982 -0.2475441 -0.1337674 0.06034926 4.8289483928
-0.018054 -0.2829825 -0.2475441 0.06232869 4.9437317057
0.0857155 -0.0180541 -0.2829825 0.15205287 5.1459084043
-0.000189 0.0857155 -0.0180541 -0.10230686 4.8163166369
0.1696662 -0.0001893 0.0857155 -0.01738446 4.8202087221
0.0133772 0.1696662 -0.0001893 0.07609251 5.1364645974
-0.176036 0.0133772 0.1696662 0.15945361 5.3369190203
0.0748282 -0.1760364 0.0133772 -0.04932332 5.0998109118
0.2877107 0.0748282 -0.1760364 -0.13149006 4.9316827071
0.0649318 0.2877107 0.0748282 -0.19431477 4.6823219516
-0.125365 0.0649318 0.2877107 -0.05328 4.679350911
-0.26928 -0.1253649 0.0649318 0.22557969 5.2325823138
-0.337469 -0.2692797 -0.1253649 0.10553018 5.1095960121
0.0545111 -0.3374689 -0.2692797 0.00088881 5.0372245349
0.2336083 0.0545111 -0.3374689 0.1608027 5.3908303513
-0.006862 0.2336083 0.0545111 -0.13335263 4.9565242442
0.1672232 -0.0068619 0.2336083 0.06884759 5.2407512159
0.0469199 0.1672232 -0.0068619 -0.01096059 5.189660015
-0.093028 0.0469199 0.1672232 0.02956074 5.3537710839
0.0814121 -0.0930277 0.0469199 0.06630225 5.3665499338
0.1109066 0.0814121 -0.0930277 -0.20669112 5.0015291506
0.0821897 0.1109066 0.0814121 -0.05038053 5.0251465325
-0.119769 0.0821897 0.1109066 -0.09346128 4.8873140163
-0.223146 -0.1197692 0.0821897 0.19645377 5.3503291629
-0.235108 -0.2231459 -0.1197692 0.07691262 5.2380503766
0.0259662 -0.2351082 -0.2231459 0.0287566 5.2437507082
0.1503937 0.0259662 -0.2351082 0.08019616 5.3660554686
0.0285869 0.1503937 0.0259662 -0.09772475 5.097770008
0.0910579 0.0285869 0.1503937 0.04333769 5.2655300141
-0.026992 0.0910579 0.0285869 0.11761669 5.5429576453
-0.086868 -0.0269916 0.0910579 0.0406436 5.491303279
0.1785057 -0.0868677 -0.0269916 0.00085059 5.4997187288
0.2053924 0.1785057 -0.0868677 -0.18032307 5.1354632067
0.0531022 0.2053924 0.1785057 -0.11921907 5.1223111778
-0.11882 0.0531022 0.2053924 0.01282342 5.15066503
-0.257089 -0.11882 0.0531022 0.08701712 5.3887136165
-0.178786 -0.2570893 -0.11882 0.12828367 5.4161615588
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7
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1

Column N Column B
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
1
3

-0.047893 1
0.1734665 0.0343777 0.07732195 6.2040907501
0.0110998 -0.0478932 0.1734665 0.05737549 6.1913089895 Column N Column B
0.1884997 0.0110998
0 -0.0478932 0.05057896 6.326568807
1 4 7 10 13 16 9 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 0
10.07274681
0.1170302 0.1884997 0.0110998 6.4987490302 1
0.1450034 0.1170302 0.1884997 -0.05564797 6.307377018
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5.8420703549
c3 c4 c5 c6
0.49313 -0.6959 0.42446 -0.2804
t Title

Column B

76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118 121 124 127 130 133
Column B

76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118 121 124 127 130 133