REAL TIME WAVE AND WIND FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE

INDIAN COASTLINE

POOJA JAIN
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 India

J. VIMALA
National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai, 600100, India

M C DEO
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 India

G. LATHA
National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai, 600100, India

S. B. CHARHATE
Datta Meghe College of Engineering, Navi Mumbai, India

S. N. LONDHE
Vishwakarma Institute of Information Technology, Pune India 411048

Real time forecasts of wind and waves are useful in taking many operation oriented decisions in the
ocean. When site specific forecasts are required time series modeling can be viewed as
advantageous over elaborate numerical methods. This paper discusses time series models based on
the soft computing approaches of genetic programming (GP) artificial neural network (ANN) to
obtain real time forecasts of wind speed, its direction as well as the significant wave height at
different locations along the Indian coastline where continuous wave buoy observations get
collected. All the developed models over various locations have been integrated into a graphical user
interface (GUI) to facilitate web based real time implementation of these models. The GUI starts
with a figure showing locations of buoys. The user has to click on the concerned location where it is
desired to have the forecasts for next 24 hours. The appropriate and calibrated ANN and GP models
will then come into background, linking them with the most recently observed data and will
accordingly yield the forecasts immediately.

1 Introduction
The operational activities in the ocean, like towing and recreation, require real time
forecasts of waves and wind over durations of a few hours. In order to get station-
specific forecasts at sites where wave data are continuously observed a simple time series
forecasting scheme could be more attractive than elaborate numerical methods. Of late
soft computing techniques such as the genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural
network (ANN) have proved to be useful tools for time series forecasting. Jain and Deo
[1] and Charahte et al. [2] presented applications of these approaches respectively to
carry out real time forecasting of significant wave heights and wind speed along with its
directions for the coastal stations around India. This paper highlights a further
development of the graphical user interface (GUI) enabling combined wave and wind
prediction through a web based system.

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National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) at Chennai in India has been

collecting continuous wave rider buoy measurements of waves and wind at a number of
locations around India’s coastline. The resulting wave, wind and other oceanographic
parameters are reported online to the registered users through a web based information
system. Currently only real time measurements are accessible by the users. As a value
addition to this service online forecasts with lead times up to 24 hours are being made
available to the users by authors through a common GUI.
The study deals with wave and wind parameters collected by wave rider buoys at
every 3-hr interval along the Indian coastline (Fig.1). The parameters forecasted are
significant wave height, Hs, wind speed, Ws, and wind direction θ. As mentioned earlier
the method used is essentially the time series forecasting (based on GP and ANN) in
which a sequence of preceding 24 hr observations is given as input recursively every time
in order to obtain the predicted values over the next 24 hr duration. The forecasting is
done for future intervals of 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours. Observations at each station are
analyzed separately. The duration of observation varied from 3 to 7 years for all
locations during the years: 1998-2004. A brief introduction to the forecasting tools of GP
and ANN is given below.
Genetic programming mimics the process of evolution occurring in nature in which
the species survive as per the principle of ‘survival of the fittest’. It is similar to the
more widely known technique of genetic algorithm (GA), but unlike GA its solution is a
computer program or an equation as against a set of numbers in the GA. Koza [3]
explains various concepts related to GP. In GP a random population of individuals, i. e.,
equations or computer programs, is created, the fitness of individuals is evaluated and
then the ‘parents’ are selected out of these individuals. The parents are then made to yield
‘offsprings’ by following the process of reproduction, mutation and cross-over. The
creation of offsprings continues in an iterative manner till a specified number of
offsprings in a generation are produced and further till another specified number of
generations are created. The best offspring (an equation or a computer program) resulting
in this process is the solution of the problem.
The artificial neural network consists of an interconnection of computational elements
or neurons, each of which combines the input, determines its strength by comparing the
combination with a bias or alternatively passing it through a non-linear transfer function
and fires out the result in proportion to such strength. Many applications of ANN in
ocean engineering have so far involved the feed forward type of the network as against
the feedback or recurrent one. A feed forward multi-layer network would consist of an
input layer, one or more hidden layers and an output layer of neurons. Before it is
actually applied to solve a problem the network is calibrated or trained using
mathematical algorithms and a set of input-output examples. Details of such training
methods can be seen in text books like [4], [5] and [6]. A review of important ANN
applications in ocean engineering reported till recently can be seen in Jain and Deo [1].
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2 Application to real time forecasting of wind and waves along the Indian
coastline

2.1. Wind Forecasting Using GP and ANN

The measurements of wind speed and direction made by wave rider buoys at nine
different locations along the west coast of India in the Arabia Sea, as shown in Fig. 1
were considered for this study. The objective was to predict wind speed and its direction
over a period of subsequent 3, 6, 12 and 24 hr at these sites based on a preceding
sequence of their observations, 24 hr long. The non-linearity and complexity of the
phenomenon of wind motivated the application of GP and ANN for its prediction. The
models based on GP and ANN were developed for each location separately based on
training sets of data and tested with respect to the testing sets. The ANN used was of
feed forward type trained using the back propagation algorithm. The testing period
roughly covered one-third of the observed sample size. Fig 2a and 2b show scatter plots
of typical wind speed and direction prediction for location DS7. A good match between
the predictions and the actual observations was noticed through such scatter diagrams and
on the basis of error statistics of correlation coefficient, R, mean absolute error, MAE and
root mean square (RMSE). Table 1 shows as example the error statistics realized during
testing at station DS1.

Fig 1. Main window of GUI showing various buoy locations

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The performance of GP was marginally better than that of ANN and this could be due
to its enormous ability to form alternative solutions and test them for their suitability
against targeted values.

20 400
Predicted wind speed (m/sec)

Predicted wind speed (degrees)

15 300

10 200

5 100

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400

Observed wind speed (m/sec) Observed wind speed (degrees)

Fig 2a. Wind speed predictions at DS7 Fig 2b. Wnd direction prediction at DS7
(6 hr ahead – GP based) (6 hr ahead-GP based)

Table 1. Wind speed and direction forecasting using GP at Station DS1

Wind speed Wind direction (degrees)
R RMSE MAE R MAE
3hr 0.95 1.20 0.91 0.90 15
6hr 0.92 1.48 1.11 0.88 18
9hr 0.91 1.63 1.19 0.86 19
12hr 0.90 1.60 1.21 0.86 21
24hr 0.87 1.80 1.33 0.79 26

2.2. Wave height forecasting using GP and ANN

The models based on GP and ANN were developed for various locations in order to
obtain estimates of Hs over a period of next 24 hours in the intervals of 3, 6, 12 and 24
hr. These were based on time series forecasting using a sequence of preceding 24 hr
observations. A large number of experimentation on input-output schemes, network
architectures and control parameters was done and this indicated that the feed forward
back propagation type of network trained using a selected sequence of preceding values
yielded satisfactory forecasts of significant wave heights over small as well as large lead
times.
In the case of wind as well as wave forecasting the measurements often involved gaps.
Such gaps were filled up prior to model training by carefully selected methods and this
considerably improved predictions over longer intervals due to the data homogeneity and
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continuity restored. The method of gap filling was temporal (based on a univariate time
series) or spatial, depending on whether the gap length is small or large. It was further
found that accounting of statistical homogeneity of underlying data during model training
also substantially improved the results.
The various error criteria used for network testing indicated satisfactory performance
of the networks even in a very harsh environment and over longer intervals of time.
Typical values of R were 0.84 to 0.94 and those of RMSE were 0.24 to 0.33 m, while
those for MAE were 0.17 to 0.24 for different locations.

3 GUI for real time forecasting

A web based graphical user interface was developed for the benefit of any user accessing
the data from anywhere in the world to obtain the forecasts of wind speed, direction and
significant wave height over a period subsequent 24 hr at any of the locations considered
in this study. The underlying software takes care of missing values in an intelligent
manner. The GUI has been developed using the Matlab software background. The buoy
data are routinely transmitted to the shore reception centre located at NIOT, Chennai
through a satellite transceiver. These measurements form the input for operating on the
GUI. The data are processed in the program itself and the model for the forecast is run.
These models are based on the selected form of the ANN architecture and GP as
alternative. The GUI integrates all models for different stations, derived for various
locations selected and gives forecasts for any of the selected location up to the lead time
of 24 hr. A help file is also designed for the user to help in the GUI implementation.

The initial screen is shown in Fig. 3 as an example. The forecast results are displayed in
the GUI window along with the plot of observed and predicted significant wave heights
over the next 24 hrs. The GUI also has the facility to save and print the plots along with
the forecasted values. (See Fig. 4 and 5 as examples). The data processing is done using
the same Matlab background. The data of forecasted values can be saved with “append”
facility so that the trend can be reviewed from time to time by the data provider. The
plots and numerical values can be printed to maintain past records. All components of
the architecture are developed with a view to use such a complex system with a common
methodology by any user. The goal is to not to treat the application as a combination of
different software but to provide a logical interface that is easy to understand.
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Fig 3. The window to get wind and wave forecasts at ‘DS1’ as example

4 Conclusions
Mathematical models based on soft computing approaches of GP and ANN have been
developed to obtain real time forecasts of wind speed, its direction as well as the
significant wave height at different locations along the Indian coastline where continuous
wave buoy observations are being collected. All the models and locations have been
integrated into a GUI to facilitate the web based real time implementation of the same.
The GUI starts with a figure showing locations of buoys. The user has to click on the
appropriate location where it is desired to have the forecasts for next 24 hours. The
appropriate and calibrated GP and ANN models will then come into background,
connecting the most recently observed data to itself and will accordingly yield the
forecasts immediately. The output can be seen in graphical and tabular forms for the
period of subsequent 24 hr and can also be printed and saved for future use.

References

1. P. Jain and M. C. Deo, International Journal of Ships and Offshore Structures,

Taylor and Francis, 1(1), 25-34 (2006).
2. S. B. Charate, M. C. Deo and S. N. Londhe, International Journal of Ships and
Offshore Structures, Taylor and Francis, in print, TSOS 349431, DOI:
10.1080/17445300802492638 (2009).
3. J. R. Koza, A Bradford Book, MIT Press, (1992)
4. B. Kosko, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, (1992).
5. P. D. Wasserman, Van Van nostrand Reinhold, New York (1993).
6. K. K. Wu, Marcel Decker, New York (1994).
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Fig 4. GUI window for wind speed and direction for location DS1

Figure 5. GUI window for station DS1 with the predicted value and plot