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If equities are assumed to rise 12%, debt gives 7% and gold moves up 5 % a year, a
portfolio that has 60% in equities, 35% in debt and 5% in gold will have more that
70 % in equities in 10 years.
This is not a problem if the equity markets continue to rise at an even pace. But the
portfolio will see a more pronounced decline of the stock markets tank.
Besides who was willing to out 60% in equities 10 years ago should logically
allocate less to this volatile class as he grows older.
Back testing studies show that rebalanced portfolios deliver better returns in the
long run than static portfolios that don’t make any changes.
The rebalancing decision is not an easy because it requires a contrarian call. The
investor has to jettison (throw or drop from a ship or aircraft) the assets that are
doing well and buy more of the underperformers.
When the senex rose above 42000 earlier this year; very few would have thought
of booking profits in stocks.
Investors who were disciplined enough to do that were not so badly hurt by the
decline that followed.
Left to himself the retail investor may not take the right decision. But a financial
advisor might be able to nudge him in the right direction.
Investors who do not have a financial advisor should have a written investor policy
that spells out their target asset allocation with upper and lower percentages.
If these levels are breached, it should trigger a portfolio review and maybe even
rebalancing. The key is to religiously follow the rule without exceptions.
Rebalancing not only restores the asset allocation but also controls the risk in the
portfolio.
More importantly it lowers the volatility of returns, which helps investors boost
confidence in the market.
When the markets recede, he is less likely to panic and more likely to remain
invested or even buy more.
Investors who do not follow this simple rule are likely to lose their balance.