DHARMASHASTRA NATIONAL LAW

UNIVERSITY, JABALPUR (M.P.)

PROJECT WORK IN THE SUBJECT

POLITICAL SCIENCE – II

On the Topic

“RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF CHANGING

DETERMINANTS OF INDIAN FOREIGN POLICIES”

SUBMITTED TO:- SUBMITTED BY:-

DR. JALAJ GOANTIYA SAGAR RAI

ASSISTANT PROFESSOR ENRL. NO. – BAL/046/19

POLITICAL SCIENCE SEC – A (SEM- II)

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 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The success and final outcome of this project required a lot of guidance and assistance from
many people and I am extremely privileged to have got this all along the completion of my
project. All that I have done is only due to supervision and assistance and I would not forget
to thank them.

Firstly, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to all those provided me the possibility
to complete this project. A special thanks to the DNLU platform where we get an opportunity
to work and research on such type of topics. I respect and thanks our Vice Chancellor Prof.
Balraj Chauhan Sir who helped in providing the opportunity to grow and I am extremely
thankful to him as he is always ready for the support and guidance for the students whenever
they are in need.

I would like to sincerely thank our HOD Dr. V.S Gigimon Sir, who not only approved the
project topics but also is the main reason behind success of project completion.

I also thank my respective Subject Teacher Dr. Jalaj Goantiya Sir for providing me the
opportunity to choose such type of topics which will help us in building our mind
intellectually.

I am thankful and fortunate enough to get constant encouragement, support, and guidance
from all my friends and families which helped us in successfully completing my project work

SAGAR RAI

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 ABSTRACT

It is the foreign policy of a nation, which determines its relations with a specific nation.
Hence, prior to the assessment of Indo - U.S. relations, this chapter takes a look at the
determinants of India's foreign policy.

Ever since India achieved independence in 1947, it has striven assiduously to evolve and
adopt a foreign policy commensurate with its national interests and the vision set by its
leaders who were at the helm of affairs. 

Foreign Policy is a strategy or planned course of action developed by decision makers of a

state vis-a-vis other states or international entities, aimed at achieving specific goals defined
in terms of national interests. A specific foreign policy carried on by a state may be the result
of an initiative by that state or may be a reaction to initiatives undertaken by other states.
Foreign policy involves a dynamic process of applying relatively fixed interpretations of
national interests to the highly fluctuating situational factors of the international environment
in order to develop a course of action, followed by efforts to achieve diplomatic
implementations of the policy guidelines.

As a need of an hour which travelled to years, decades and centuries in between nation to
nations; kept them in continuous changing mode. But this doesn’t mean the basic structure of
the foreign policy be scarifies. They were being safeguarded through extent of existence.
India being experienced in Diplomatic immunity performed pro to both Bipolar and Unipolar
system across the world as a Nehruvian realistic approach in his era and under the image of
cultural power, soft power pace to a multialignment approach to foreign policy dimensions
were mainframe to the different political parties as being in the government machinery. These
policies related with external affairs bring many forms of development and progressive
tendencies to the new scientific and the neo liberal economic changes as a performer in the
third world nations.

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Table of Contents

On the Topic..................................................................................................................................1

ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................................3

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES,METHODOLOGY,QUESTIONS.......................................................5

INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..6

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND………………………………………………………………………………………..……..………7

EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS......................................................................................................9

INTERNAL DETERMINANTS.....................................................................................................11

RETROSPECTIVE VIEW..............................................................................................................15

PROSPECTIVE VIEW...................................................................................................................20

CORE FINDING.............................................................................................................................23

FUTURE SCOPE............................................................................................................................23

SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION..........................................................................................24

BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES........................................................................................26

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 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

 To describe the basic tenets of India's foreign policy

 To explain the reasons for continuity and change in India's foreign policy.

 To elucidate changing parameters of India's foreign policy in the light of

globalization and post-Cold War environment.

 To evaluate the nature and functioning of India's foreign policy.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

 The nature of the research is based upon various empirical qualitative methods
through which analysis and comparisons were carried out in accordance with
retrospective and prospective views of the foreign policies of the country.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

 Whether the preservation of India’s territorial integrity and independence of foreign

policy played a prominent role in the countries welfare or not?

 What were the factors promoting international peace and security?

 Statistical data about Economic development of India influenced by foreign policies

 Protective measures taken for the interests of people of Indian origin abroad.

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 INTRODUCTION

The present age is of nation, states and internationalism in which no state, however strong it
may be, cannot live in isolation. Every state has to establish economic, social, political,
scientific and cultural relations with the other countries for safeguarding its national interests.
The truth is that establishing relations with the other countries has become an important and
essential function of every state and the policy adopted by one state, keeping in view the
protection and promotion of its national interests in order to determine its relations with
others, is known as the foreign Policy It is a known fact that the formation of government is
essential to run a state and no state can live without maintaining interstate relations which
have become so essential in these days. To that end every government has to formulate a
foreign policy. Like internal and domestic policies, industrial policy, agricultural policy,
defence policy, education policy, labour policy etc. A state gives special attention to the
careful formulation and successful execution of its foreign policy. A successful foreign policy
enhances a nation’s power and prestige in the comity of nations. Foreign policy gains also
increase a government’s credibility in the eyes of public internally as well as externally.
Herein lies the importance of foreign policy. It has become one of the most important core
fields of international relations now we discus Determinants of Foreign Policy.

According to Ruthna Swami, “Foreign Policy now is the bundle of principles and practices
that regulate the intercourse of a state with other states.”

According to Hartman, “The Foreign is systematic statement of deliberately selected national

interests.”

Major steps in foreign policy process includes :

 Translating considerations of national interests into specific goals and objectives

 Determining the international and domestic situational factors related to the policy
goals
 Analysing the state's capabilities for achieving the desired results;
 Developing a plan or strategy for using the state's capabilities to deal with the
variables in pursuit of the goals
 Undertaking the requisite actions and

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  Periodically reviewing and evaluating progress made toward the achievement of the
desired results.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

From the time of independence to the disastrous border conflict with the PRC, three key
features characterized India's foreign policy. First, India played a significant role in
multilateral institutions and particularly in United Nations peacekeeping operations. Second,
it also emerged as a critical proponent of the nonaligned movement. Third, as a leader of the
nonaligned movement it also made a significant contribution toward the process of
decolonization.

These three critical commitments, in turn, manifested themselves at global, regional and
national levels. At a global level, India attempted to defuse Cold War tensions in a number of
contexts, regional and functional. To that end, India had emerged as one of the early
proponents of a nuclear test ban treaty and in 1952 had introduced a draft resolution co-
sponsored with Ireland to bring about a global ban on nuclear tests. In the event, thanks to the
exigencies of Cold War politics, little or nothing came of this effort.

Nevertheless, this endeavour was a manifestation of India's interest in forging a particular

global order, one which would hobble the use of force in international affairs. India also
sought to play a vital role in United Nations peacekeeping operations as well as the peaceful
resolution of regional disputes. In pursuit of these ends India became involved in the
International Control Commission in Vietnam along with Canada and Poland, it was a key
member of the Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission in Korea and it also made a
significant troop contribution to the United Nations Peacekeeping forces in the Belgian
Congo. 

Additionally, India proved to be a tireless campaigner in the effort to bring about

decolonization. To that end, India's diplomacy was carefully geared to the discussion of the
issue at various international fora and especially in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

In the region, it referred the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan to the United Nations for possible
resolution. To the dismay of its policymakers, the issue became quickly embroiled in the
politics of the Cold War. As a consequence of the largely partisan discussions at the United

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Nations, India's political leadership became increasingly disillusioned about the resolution of
its bilateral territorial disputes through the mechanism of the United Nations.

Not surprisingly, after extensive diplomatic discussion with the intransigent Salazar regime in
Portugal produced a deadlock and Prime Minister Nehru faced increasing criticism from a
group of Afro-Asian leaders, India chose to use force to oust the Portuguese from their
colonial enclave in Goa in 1960. 

Finally, at national level, the country's commitment to nonalignment led to the adoption of a
particular set of significant policy choices. Specifically, one of the key elements of the
doctrine of nonalignment was the limitation of high defence expenditures. 

To this end India pursued the policy of Panchsheel (or the Five Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence) towards the PRC. The five principles were mutual respect for each other's
territorial integrity and sovereignty; non-aggression; non-interference in one another's
internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit; and peaceful coexistence.  As a consequence,
Indian military expenditures were drastically limited even when steady evidence about a
possible security threat from the PRC continued to mount. Such a policy, unfortunately,
proved to be extremely costly when the border negotiations with the PRC ultimately reached
a cul-de-sac in 1960. Faced with this situation, India embarked upon a strategy of corpulence
designed to restore what it deemed to be the territorial status quo along the disputed
Himalayan border.  

This policy, however, was singularly ill conceived as it involved sending in lightly armed,
poorly equipped and ill-prepared troops to high altitudes in “penny packets.” In October
1962, when the People's Liberation Army (PLA) attacked with considerable force, the Indian
military was grossly unprepared to face the onslaught. The PLA inflicted considerable losses
on the Indian forces and then withdrew from some of the areas that they had entered.
However, they did not vacate some 14,000 square miles that they had initially
claimed.  These territories and some other disputed regions still remain the subject of tortured
and glacial border negotiations.

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 EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS

1. Power Structure
The relations that nations establish among themselves are backed by their respective national
interests and powers. In fact, such relations involve struggle for power among them. The net
effect is that international relations constitute a power structure in which the more powerful
nations—the super powers and the major powers—play a more vigorous and leading
role than the relatively less powerful nations.
The power vacuum caused by the weakened power of the formerly powerful European states,
because of their involvement in two World Wars compelled the U.S.A. to come out of its
isolationism and assume a new global role in international relations.
The emergence of the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R. as the two super powers with cold war in
between them, made it imperative for the newly independent states like India, to adopt a
policy of keeping away from the cold war and yet attempt to have friendly co-operation with
both the super powers.
2. International Organizations
The role and importance of international institutions as instruments of states’ foreign policies,
and the political, military, functional, economic and humanitarian roles played principally by
the United Nations in international relations cannot be overestimated. These international
organizations to varying degrees serve as modifiers of state behaviour and as independent
actors in their own right. They have profound impact on the determination of the foreign
policy of a state. No state can decide and conduct its policy arbitrarily to the detriment of
other states. UN and other multilateral forums come to the rescue of the aggressed state.
Usually sanctions are imposed which in some cases become very effective provided the
international community imposes them sincerely.
3. Reaction of other states
Likewise the system of states is fast transforming into a society of states state where each and
every individual states has regard for the rights of other states. Being sensible to the

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sensibilities of other states, no state can adopt a unilateral policy. It has to take into account,
and accommodate, if possible, the interests of the other stake-holders as well. India and the
US have to take stock of Pakistani interests in Afghanistan. They are also cognizant of the
fact that no plan for Afghanistan can work until and unless Pakistan is taken aboard in this
regard.

4. World Public Opinion

The state, while formulating its foreign policy has to take into account the world public
opinion. World public opinion is more effective when it is supported by the domestic public
opinion of the given state. Power is not about military hardware or nukes and ammunitions;
its equally important component is a state’s prestige known as ‘soft power’ . It is well known
that the US administration was made to effect changes in its Vietnam policy largely due to
hostile world public opinion. 
The real strength behind the objectives of Disarmament, Arms Control and Nuclear
Disarmament, Anti- colonialism, Anti-apartheid policies of various nations, has been the
World Public Opinion.
5. Alliances and Treaties (Bilateral and Multilateral)
The extensive and intensive system of alliances that emerged in the Post-1945 period had a
big impact on the foreign policies of all the nations. During 1945-90 both the United States
and the USSR, recognized and used alliances as the means for consolidating their respective
positions.
Their foreign policies, as well as the foreign policies of their allies were always governed by
the goal to secure new partners in their respective alliances and to maintain and consolidate
the alliance partnerships. Even now, after the demise of Warsaw Pact, the U.S.A. continues to
consider NATO as the mainstay of its foreign policy in Europe.
NATO’s support to the US decision to declare a war against Taliban’s Afghanistan decidedly
gave strength to the US foreign policy. However, many other nations, the Non-aligned
nations, still continue to regard alliances as a source of tension and distrust and their foreign
policies are still governed by the anti-alliance principle.
Recently, another factor has become an influential factor in Foreign Policy- making. The
realization for mutual inter-dependence has given birth to a large number of regional
organisations, arrangements, agreements and trading blocs. European Union, ASEAN,
SAARC NAFTA, APEC, SCO and several others have been major players in international

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economic relations.
6. Economic Developmental Needs
Pakistan and India are bargaining with Iran for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and
with Turkmenistan for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline
project. Besides a proposal for exporting gas from Qatar is also under consideration. India has
received a big boost in this regard with the coming into force for the US-India deal on the
peaceful nuclear technology. This has virtually legitimized Indian nuclear programme much
to the chagrin of Pakistan which has since been strenuously lobbying for getting the same
status.

INTERNAL DETERMINANTS

1.Historical and Cultural Influence

     The cultural and historical traditions of a country also deeply influence the foreign policy.
Generally people possessing a unified common culture and historical experience can pursue
an effective foreign policy because of the support of all sections of society who share the
same values and memories. Equally important are the processes through which the contents
of Shared norms and practices of society, as distinguished from the degree of unity that
supports them shape the plans that are made and the activities that are undertaken with
respect to the external world.
         India’s apprehensions of China and Pakistan are the product of their historical
traditions. India and China have to some extent shelved their historical mistrust in order to
pave ground for their mutual trade. It is believed by the Complex Interdependence theorists
that in the present age of interdependence, it is highly improbable that the two countries
would go to war. 
2. Size and Geography
The size of a state's territory as well as its population greatly influences its foreign policy.
Generally the leaders and people of countries with small territory and population do not
expect their country to carry great weight in international affairs. On the other hand the
leaders and people of large countries are ready to assume special responsibilities. Size has
been a factor in the foreign policies of the U.S.A., Russia, China, India, Brazil, France and

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others.
However, sometimes even small states which have rich resources also leave a deep impact on
world politics. For example, Britain, a small country, played leading role in world politics in
the nineteenth and early twentieth century. In our own times the oil-rich countries of the
Middle East, though small in size are playing a significant role in international politics.
On the other hand large states like Canada and Australia have not been able to pursue
effective foreign policy. Commonwealth of Independent states (CIS) which came into
existence after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, though quite large in size, is not able to
play an effective role in contemporary international relations.
The geography of a country, including its fertility, climate, location in relation to their land
masses, and water-ways etc. also influence the country's foreign policy. It is a major factor in
determining self-sufficiency of a country.
The role played by English Channel in the development of Britain as a major naval power
and consequently as an imperial power is well known. The influence of the Atlantic Ocean on
the US Foreign Policy has been always there. Indian Foreign Policy now definitely bears the
influence of the geographical location of India as the largest littoral state of the Indian Ocean.
Generally land-locked countries, nations in the tropics and those bordering a superpower are
less self-sufficient in comparison to the countries which have access to warm-water ports or
are located in the temperate zones and far removed from superpowers. For example in
the nineteenth century USA adopted isolationist policy chiefly on account of its geographical
location. Though the importance of geographic factors is acknowledged almost at all
hands, its importance has considerably declined due to technological and scientific
developments.
 3. Population
The human force constitutes another determinant of foreign policy. The strength of a nation
depends upon the quality and quantity of its human factor. The enormous population of China
enabled it to pursue a forceful foreign policy. On the other hand the falling birth rate in
France compelled her to toe a weak foreign policy during the inter-war period. Qualitatively,
the population should be healthy, educated and prosperous. It should also possess technical
know-how. It is however, to be noted that the population of a country has to be evaluated in
relation to its other attributes. If the resources of a country are not sufficient to meet the
requirements of the large population, the latter may pose a serious challenge to the very
existence of the state. But if there are sufficient resources to meet the requirements of a large

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population, then it certainly adds to the power of the state, as this may enable it to mould its
foreign policy accordingly. Instances from USA and the defunct Soviet Union’s history can
be quoted to substantiate this point. On the other side if the state possesses sufficient natural
resources but less population, then it may not be able to assert it. The example of Canada can
be quoted in this respect. Canada has been pursuing a liberal Immigration Policy to overcome
this deficiency.
4. Natural Resources
The natural resources of a country also profoundly influence the determination of a foreign
policy. The natural resources apart from minerals, gas and water resources also include the
food grain. During the present century, food has tended to be an important factor in the
determination of a country’s foreign policy. It is said that during the Second World War the
foreign and military policy of Germany was to a large extent, determined by her limited food
reserves. She resorted to massive action because she was to win a quick victory in view of the
danger of starvation faced by the German army. In the post-World War II, Oil diplomacy in
the Middle East has greatly determined foreign policy not only of the states of the region, but
also of the entire world. The attitude of the super powers during the cold war, towards the
region of the Middle East in particular, was to a large extent, dictated by their desire to
control the oil.
We can say that the natural resources and raw material exercise considerable influence upon
the foreign policy of a country. In the absence of a sound industrial complex, they can make a
state vulnerable to foreign intervention, but with their domestic consumption and indigenous
input, they can be a real boon for any country. In such a case, the state would pursue its
foreign policy more confidently and assertively.
5. Economic and Industrial Development
The stage of economic development which a country has attained also has its impact on its
foreign policy. Generally the industrially advanced countries feel more deeply involved in
relations with other countries because they have to import different kinds of raw materials
and commodities from other countries.. Again, an industrial country is expected to have a
higher gross national product (GNP) and can devote greater funds for external purpose,
economic aid programme, military ventures and extensive diplomatic commitments.
The global perspectives and policies of the two super-powers (1945-90) were again governed
by their vast economic and industrial resources and their needs for foreign markets and trade.
In fact, all economically and industrially developed nations (Group of seven plus
one, countries in particular) are now playing a more a vigorous role in international relations

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than the lowly developed and developing countries.
This is but natural in view of fact that economically developed countries possess greater
military capability than the less developed countries, and can exert greater influence on
international relations. In our own times the decline of Russia's economic power has
considerably undermined her political role in the international arena.
Advancement in technology, which affects the military and economic capabilities of a state,
also exercises profound influence on the foreign policy.
6. Military Power
Besides all the preceding factors, the military strength of a country also determines the
effectiveness of its foreign policy. A state possessing sufficient military strength has greater
initiative and bargaining power in the international arena. The case of Israel can be quoted as
an example. She continues her precarious existence despite the combined opposition of the
Allied nations; she has power to maintain an assertive foreign policy. Unlike geographical
and natural resources, the military capacity is not a static factor. It keeps on changing. The
states try to impress about their military superiority in a number of ways, such as nuclear
tests, mobilization of army, periodical display of military forces, devices and techniques. 
Military strength of a country is closely linked to its resourcefulness and the development of
its industry. A developed civil industry can be made to manufacture military hardware during
the time of wars and crises.

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 RETROSPECTIVE VIEW

 Indo-Pakistani War of 1947

•At Independence, Kashmir remains neutral, choosing to join neither Pakistan nor India

•The Maharaja’s neutrality ends as armed tribesmen supported by Pakistan invade Kashmir,
coinciding with a popular revolt across the state

•Maharaja Singh flees to India, and in return for military support, grants accession to India
on 26 October 1947.

•Both countries agree that accession to be confirmed by referendum once hostilities end.

•Fighting continues, and in May 1948, the regular Pakistani army called upon to protect
Pakistan’s borders.

• War ends on January 1, 1949 as UN arranges ceasefire.

 1947 – Nehru’s Non-Alignment

•Since mid-1920s, the Indian National Congress, under Nehru’s leadership, had resolved to
support colonised peoples in struggle against imperialism.

•Following independence, this anti-imperialist and anti-racist stance forms pretext for
Nehru’s “Non-Alignment” policy, entailing diplomacy independent of both former colonial
overlords and increasingly entrenched Cold War blocs.

•Non-Alignment based Panchsheel (the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence) signed in

1954 with China, and later with Burma, Laos, Nepal, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, and Cambodia.

•Transformation of Non-Alignment from a concept to movement at 1955 Bandung

Conference – a 10-point “declaration on the promotion of world peace and cooperation”
incorporating Nehru’s Five Principles is unanimously adopted.

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  1962 Sino-Indian War

•India's border disputes with China and its lack of adequate preparedness to deal with the
rising China threat have disastrous consequences for India.

•Indian forces suffer a humiliating defeat at the hands of China, consequently bringing a
harsh criticism of Nehru’s China policy.

•United States rejects Nehru’s requests for military aid, precipitating later move towards the
USSR.

 Post-Nehru Pragmatism

•Shift toward pragmatic diplomacy and discarding of idealistic pacifism gains pace
following Nehru’s death in 1964.

•Defence spending surges, and a military modernisation programme to create a one million
strong army begins, reflecting an increasingly “self-help” approach to foreign policy.

•No formal abandonment of Non-Alignment, and this rhetoric continued despite Indian
behaviour assuming more realist orientation.

 1965 Indo-Pakistani War

•Pakistani attempt to instigate insurgency against India in Kashmir (Operation Gibraltar)

leads to India launching full invasion of erstwhile West Pakistan.

•Indian victory demonstrates its superiority in South Asia, and the success of its more
assertive foreign policy supported by strong military.

•Lack of Western support during conflict brings India closer to USSR, which becomes
India’s largest supplier of military hardware by end of the decade.

 1971 Liberation of Bangladesh

•India came to support of Bangladeshi liberation movement and inflicted severe military
defeat on Pakistan to help establish the a new state of Bangladesh

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•Signing of a pact of “Peace, Friendship and Cooperation” with USSR obstructs any
intervention from American or Chinese forces on behalf of Pakistan.

•India becomes dominant power on the subcontinent, but lacklustre domestic economic
policies prevent extension of influence further afield.

 1974 Pokhran I (Smiling Buddha) Nuclear Tests

•India detonates its first nuclear bomb, calling it the ‘Peaceful Nuclear Explosion’, catching
the world off guard.

•Aftermath: Nuclear Suppliers Group created to contain nuclear proliferation, but formed
specifically against India.

 1980’s Increased international presence

•India continues to play preeminent role in regional affairs, increasing its involvement in the
UN peacekeeping operations.

•1985: Formation of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in an

effort to forge regional integration.

•1987: India-Sri Lanka accord signed with the intention to end the Sri Lankan civil war. Per
terms of the agreement, India sends peacekeeping forces to Sri Lanka. The accord ensures
that India keeps its position in the sub-continent and abates foreign involvement in the civil
war.

•1989: Outbreak of an armed insurgency in Kashmir Valley leads to violence, migration of

Kashmiri Pandits and sets the stage for a long phase of militant violence.

 1991 – The End of Cold War

•With the collapse of the Soviet Union – India’s key ally – India begins to shift focus towards
the U.S.

•PM Narasimha Rao launches a series of reforms opening up the economy to foreign
investment, privatisation, and liberalisation.

•‘Look East’ policy launched by the government with focus on connecting with the Southeast
Asian markets.

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  Deepening of Indo-U.S. Relations

• India shifts her focus to developing relations with the U.S., the only major remaining
superpower in the world on the basis of shared democratic values

• Aim of India’s foreign policy is twofold – to maintain regional position while working
towards a long-term goal of becoming a global superpower, which it feels the U.S. can help it
accomplish

 1992 India Establishes Formal Diplomatic Relations with Israel

•Israel would prove to be a key ally and defence partner in subsequent years

•Provides India with weapons during Kargil War.

•Sends Israeli Defence Force (IDF) emergency response delegation to provide humanitarian
relief for victims in the 2001 Gujarat earthquake.

 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

•CTBT opens for signatures in 1996.

•India refuses to sign CTBT and older Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on grounds that it is
discriminatory; prohibiting non-weapon states to develop nuclear programmes whilst
allowing weaponised states to keep their weapons.

 1998 Pokhran II Tests

•In response to the growing threat posed by a weaponised Pakistan and China, India’s policy
towards the development of nuclear weapons shifts from idealism to pragmatism.

•In 1998, a series of nuclear tests known as Pokharan II conducted by the Atal Behari
Vajpayee-led NDA government.

•The tests are met with approval domestically, the government faced criticism internationally
and leads to economic sanctions from the U.S., Japan, and other countries.

 1999 Kargil War

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•May ’99: Skirmishes escalate between Indian and Pakistan forces along the Kashmir border.
India launches military campaign to evict Pakistani soldiers and militants from Kargil sector.

•Pakistan is defeated but tensions remain high.

 India Pushes for Nuclear Programme Development

•In 2005, Bush administration and UPA government under Manmohan Singh issue a joint
statement that lays out the plan for civilian nuclear cooperation.

•In 2008, the UPA government and Obama administration sign Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear Deal.

•The Deal: India agrees to open its nuclear facilities for international inspection in exchange
for nuclear fuel from the U.S. (for civilian purposes only).

 26/11 Mumbai Terror Attacks

•November 2008: Pakistan based terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) attacks

multiple locations in Mumbai.

•Indian intelligence agencies provide evidence that the attack was supported by Pakistani
intelligence agency ISI.

•Both governments make efforts to prevent all-out war but relations take a major setback.

 Increased Engagement with ASEAN, BRICS and other Multilateral

organisations; a Trend Initiated by UPA and Continued by NDA

•UPA government signs FTAs with South Korea (2010), Malaysia (2010), ASEAN (2010),
and Japan (2011). •2009: Emergence of the BRIC nations as rising economic powers

•2014: Election of Modi government heralds increased international engagement, especially

with Asian and ASEAN countries in the form of Act East Policy.

•Modi government continues engagement with BRICS nations including the establishment of
BRICS NDB. •India and other G4 nations pitch to become permanent members of the UN
Security Council.

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 PROSPECTIVE VIEW

The 2020s will see India become the world’s third-largest economy, after the US and China.
Even at a slower nominal growth rate of 10% per annum, India will cross Germany in five
years and Japan in seven, closing the decade at $7 trillion. At 8% nominal growth rate, it will
become the third-largest economy by end of the decade. Even though the nominal GDP
growth in the last quarter stood at a poor 6.1%, we believe this is a short-term blip that will
change going forward, partly because of a global revival and partly due to domestic changes.

As India enters the 2020s with this economic trajectory ahead, there are six areas it must
work on over the decade with a greater focus. All relationships are important, but we believe,
these super six will hog diplomatic attention in the decade ahead. Within these geographies,
India has to negotiate several complexities simultaneously – trade and nationalism,
technology and regulation, energy and security. Above all, India must offer public goods to
the world, while ending poverty at home.

 The US: on the go, make it fly

Clearly, the most important relationship, India-US ties extend wide and deep, from trade and
economy to security and defence. Not always has the US been a dependable partner. But in
the foreseeable future, the US relationship is here to stay. Be it around the Chinese hegemony
in the region or markets, this relationship is crucial for both partners. It will not be always
harmonious. The US will want India to open markets; India will seek more spaces for Indians
working in the US. The US will want its Boeings to fly India; India will seek balance with
Airbus as well. What will strengthen the India-US relationship at the core will be business to
business initiatives and citizen to citizen diaspora. These, the establishment must nurture.

 China: not a friend, not yet an enemy

The biggest policy challenge in this decade would be to keep Chinese companies such as
Huawei and ZTE out of India’s 5G rollout. Between hectic lobbying by companies in the
media and the security fraternity that hopes to secure India, we will see several debates going
forward. Security will win, Huawei will be out. But the process of getting there will be long
drawn and full of challenges. Managing the border will be another challenge. As its terrorist
proxy, Pakistan is more or less under control, after the Balakot attack. As a neighbour that
shows open and uncontrollable rage against India even as it profits from an adverse trade

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balance against it, China will be the relationship that will extract the most from India’s
diplomats and domestic policymakers. For now, there is no constituency that has a positive
view about China in India. But if China reforms its anti-India stance, we hope this will
change by the end of the decade.

 Russia and France: expand the work in progress

These two members of the UNSC have been consistent in their relationship with India. both
have supported India in most decisions recently, defying China. Across the span of history,
Russia has provided defence equipment to India, France is joining now. Their support has
come within the confines of competitive forces from the US on the one side and India
diversifying its defence procurement on the other. Outside this strategic relationship, there is
scope to widen and deepen them. With Russia, a deeper engagement on the energy front is
possible, if we can design gas routes. With France, following the Framework Agreement on
Civil Nuclear Cooperation, this decade should see a greater push to build nuclear power
plants.

 Neighbourhood: Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka need attention

Given that Bhutan, Maldives and Myanmar are on course, the coming decade should see
India step out and repair relationships with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Being the
bigger economy and a more influential nation, India must rethink these relationships and
rebuild new bridges over water that has flown. We have needlessly allowed China to fill up
the vacuum left behind by our indifference. A little diplomatic humility will go a long way in
restoring past goodwill. For none of these countries is it an either-or with India-China. Both
can coexist. But if China has more economic and military muscle, India is no lightweight.
Besides, what India lacks in muscle, it can more than make up with mind – Aadhaar or
payment platforms like UPI (Unified Payments Interface) are soft exports that can be gifted
not only to the neighbourhood but to the world, especially nations in Africa and South
America, though it seems even the US and the EU could do with India’s help here.

 Japan and Germany: maintain and strengthen

The world’s third- and fourth-largest economies, Japan and Germany are nations that need a
deeper engagement. The relationship with Japan is strategic and economic. It is strategic
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through the fledgling but upcoming Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and it is economic
through investments and trade. A friendly relationship, India and Japan need to strengthen
both these trajectories, given that both have a hegemonic China to counter. Germany is a
simpler relationship, resting more on trade, investments and technologies such as robotics
than strategy or security. As its companies seek investment destinations in the face of rising
costs domestically, India should work on making ease of manufacturing in India, and rethink
a regulatory infrastructure of laws and regulations that are more welcoming, less threatening.

 West Asia: scale up, diversify

To reach a $10 trillion GDP, India will need more energy than ever before. Already the
world’s third-largest consumer of oil, India’s needs will only rise in the foreseeable future,
and West Asia is the geography we rely on. On the other side, the largest number of Indian
diaspora is located in this area. Our relationship with the Gulf region, therefore, needs to look
at energy imports and services exports that sustain the remittance economy. Because of these,
there is a need for deepening the security relationship with the Gulf as well. As a result, in the
next decade India should forge a robust cooperative security mechanism, on the lines of the
Quad, to ensure that India becomes an active participant in the provision of security in this
critical region.

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 CORE FINDING

From the foreign policy perspective, India faces today – and will continue to face in the
foreseeable future – a mix of challenges. Some of these are:

Threats to national security: They come from the non-traditional sources such as terrorism
and radicalization; from traditional sources such as China and Pakistan; and from new
sources such as deficit in cyber security.

 Economic: Adverse economic trends in the world have negative impact on our ability
to grow. Economic strength is the biggest source of national security. Our aim has to
be to attain 8% GDP growth rate for the next three decades. How this can be done has
to be the national priority.
 Fourth Industrial Revolution, particularly its effect on the future of work.
 Energy and Climate Change
 Blue Economy
 Reform in Global Governance
 G20 – the forthcoming chairmanship by India in 2022.

FUTURE SCOPE

For a nation which desires to be a global power, India needs to

Substantially increase its Comprehensive National Power (CNP)

 Secure greater harmony at home in conformity with our national mantra– ‘Unity

amidst Diversity”
 Reduce the people’s tendency to be insular and inward-looking, and
 Ensure higher awareness in its youth, business, civil society, academia and media
about the changing world stage and India’s growing role on it.

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 SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION

Against this background, the new government must add substance and energy to the
“neighbourhood first” policy. Fresh emphasis must be laid on regular political level
engagement and on expanding the density of economic and trade relations with neighbours.
Proximity is a key asset in promoting economic relations but they also require investment in
both physical connectivity and the smooth and speedy passage of goods and peoples across
borders. India is the transit country for all its neighbours and its transport infrastructure is
more than adequate to handle transit traffic from one end of the subcontinent to the other.

Relations with Pakistan remain hostage to its addiction to cross-border terrorism. Repeated
efforts to improve relations with Pakistan have been stalled due to terrorist attacks inflicted
on India by terrorist groups aided and abetted by Pakistan’s military and intelligence
agencies. As long as Pakistan enjoys a strong Chinese shield and the US seeks Pakistani
support for its withdrawal from Afghanistan, India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally
will have only limited success. On the other hand, rising tensions between India and Pakistan
bring back the hyphenation between the two countries and invite meddling by outside
powers. The new government must find a way to bring about relative normalcy in relations
with Pakistan without giving up the focus on terrorism.

For the foreseeable future, India is not in a position to single-handedly check rising Chinese
power and influence. Therefore, it should seek to be part of a coalition of major powers
which share its concerns about China. The new government must continue to strengthen
relations with the US, Japan, Australia and South East Asia as part of countervailing and
constraining Chinese power. India has been cautious about its role in the Quad, which is a
grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India, and serves as a forum for security
consultations and cooperation.

Deepening relations with Europe – particularly with Germany, which is now the most
powerful country in the continent – must continue to be high on India’s foreign policy agenda
even though Europe has been disappointingly unable to prevent the ongoing fragmentation of

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the European Union. Africa and Latin America will remain regions of interest, both for their
economic potential and for imparting a global reach to India’s foreign policy.

Despite the unpredictability of the Trump administration, India-US relations have been
consolidated. This is reflected most visibly in defence and counter-terrorism cooperation. The
challenge for the new government will be in managing the economic/trade pillar of the
relationship, which has become a contested space over the years. India has been a major
beneficiary of globalization. Its economy has seen rapid growth resulting from a more open
trade and investment regime. The temptation to walk back from this must be resisted because
this will push India towards the margins of the global economy, reduce its political leverage,
and put paid to any prospect of catching up with China.

Compared to other major countries of the world, India has an almost skeletal foreign service.
In order to sustain foreign policy and live up to its ambitions of playing an active global role,
India will need to significantly expand its Foreign Service corps. Moreover, the budget of the
Ministry of External Affairs continues to be paltry compared to other ministries despite the
critical role it plays in managing all aspects of India’s external relations. It is imperative that
sufficient resources are made available to the ministry to enable it to deliver on its critical
mandate in a globalized world.

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES

 https://mea.gov.in/

 https://www.csis.org/analysis/indian-foreign-policy-preparing-different-era

 https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/6-areas-indias-foreign-policy-must-focus-on-

in-the-2020s-59813/

 https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/6-areas-indias-foreign-policy-must-focus-on-

in-the-2020s-59813/

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