Data Analysis Plan

On Investigation of the Predictability of GPA Average at the

Freshman Year of University Final Exam Using High School Grade
Rank and Entrance Test Score in State University

Prepared and Submitted By:

Keshab Rijal,
Student ID No: 2019552016
Global Health Security Program 2019 -21,
Graduate School of Public Health,
Yonsei University
Dec, 2019.

For the partial fulfillment of the semester evaluation of the first

semester of Biostatistics.
Title of the Project: Investigation of the predictability of GPA
average at the freshman year of university final exam using high school
grade rank and entrance test score in State University.

1. Introduction and Literature Survey:

1.1. Introduction:
Even though it differs from country to country students in many nations are required
to sit for national examination to join their academic institution. Some institutions
administer certain types of well-established globally recognized examinations. For
instance most of the US colleges and universities require that all their applicants take
one or more standardized tests such as SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test), GRE
(Graduate Record Examination), GMAT (Graduate Management Admission Test)
and TOEFl (Test of English as a foreign language), while others administer locally-
developed examinations to screen students for pursuing their academic career. As
long as students are screened in to undergraduate or graduate courses through the
admission tests, studying the influence of these tests on the future achievement of the
students is of utmost importance. The nature of these tests, in fact indicates that
educational experts discover to what extent admission tests can predict the academic
success of the students in future. [1]

Entrance examination (admission test) is the most important and widely accepted
method of student selection for admission into medical school, Engineering and
many technical and highly demanded higher educations in Nepal. For many schools
it is the only criterion of student selection.[2] University entrance exam scores and
High School grade point average are two admission criteria that are currently used
for higher education institutions in Ethiopia. [1]
Academic institutions worldwide use three main admission requirement policies for
registered students
(OECD, 2012): a combination of high school grades or matriculation grades;
university entrance exams; unrestricted admission based on minimum requirements.
Some institutions add to these three methods criteria such as recommendation letters,
extra-curricular activities (“life experience”), community service, and socio-
economic status. The custom of combining high school grades and one or another
kind of entrance exam is the most prevalent practice. Needless to say, different
conventions are used in different countries. For example, admission to universities in
Australia is based on the candidate’s rank according to her or his matriculation
certificate grades, which are weighted according to each graduating class. In
Germany, admission is based on matriculation certificate grades or graduation
certificate grades of vocational schools. Alongside this basis requirement, different
programs pose additional, specific conditions. In the USA, admission to most
universities is based on a weighting of high school course grades, the student’s
academic ranking in his class, and the student’s score on the SAT or ACT test;
additionally, more flexible parameters also enter into consideration. In Japan, public
and private universities require candidates to pass a test administrated by the
NCUEE, a national center for university admission tests, which covers 33 topics in
six fields of study. This is only a small example of the large variance between
countries. [3]

1.2. Literature Review:

High school grade point average from Secondary education certificate examination
and University entrance examination scores are commonly used as admission criteria
for predicting future academic performance in higher education in Ethiopia. High
school grade point average reflects students’ performance at the end of high school
in different subjects. University entrance exam scores are based on subjects that are
regarded as essential prerequisite for college level courses.
In terms of evaluating the predictive validity of admission criteria in Ethiopia, other
researchers have conducted a study to see the predictive validity of university
entrance exam scores. Nevertheless this study is the first study that investigates the
predictive validity of both high school Grade point average and university entrance
exam scores for college performance. Concerning predictive validity of high school
GPA and university entrance exam scores, this study contributes to the body of
knowledge and can be considered as significant.[1]
There is no influence of public and private schools in the selection of students for
admission in MBBS course at BPKIHS and in their subsequent success in medical
education. What matters is students’ better performance in physics for being selected
through the existing admission-test system and better performance in chemistry for
future success in medical course at BPKIHS. However, a need of cross validation of
the findings is very important.
The data indicate that the performances in I.Sc or 10+2 examination and entrance
examination do not fully support success in the community-based and innovative
medical education of the BPKIHS. The present student selection criteria for
admission into medical education at this institute therefore, need to incorporate other
non-cognitive attributes of candidates along with cognitive aspects [2]
Admission requirements turned out to be a mixed bag in terms of their effectiveness.
With regards to the probability of success at the end of the first academic year,
psychometric scores managed to predict such success in only a moderate degree, and
only in the Faculty of Natural Sciences and the Faculty of Social Sciences and
Humanities. In the case of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities,
psychometric scores also predict success in the entire degree, rather well. Mechina
grades also predict first year success in the Faculty of National Sciences, the Faculty
of Social Studies and Humanities, and the Faculty of Engineering, reasonably well.
In contrast, grades in an associate engineering program do not make a significant
contribution to the prediction of first year success. With regards to overall success in
the degree, the best predictors varied from one faculty to another. In Health Sciences,
psychometric scores and/or matriculation grades are the dominant predictors, while
in Natural Sciences; the combination of psychometric scores, matriculation grades
and grades in a previous academic degree gives the highest grade average. In
Engineering, a previous degree or psychometric score combined with matriculation
grades and previous degrees are the dominant predictors among highest achieving
students. [3]
The main objective of the research was to identify and compare variables that
explain the academic performance of freshmen who took Math and Accounting
standardized tests, the linear regression analysis (stepwise method) yielded a model
of two variables which explains the performance in the Math test: school entry
period and class shift (F= 46.3, p=.000), the model explains 23% of the variance, the
standardized Beta coefficients presented in Table 1 show that if the student belongs
to the second college entry period and attends the evening shift; achievement in this
exam decreases .419 and .265, respectively. The model excluded marital status,
employment status, and reading preference. [4]

1.3. Objective of the Project:

The Objective of the project is to investigate the predictability of GPA average at the
freshman year of university final exam using high school grade rank and entrance
test score in State University.
2. Method of Data Analysis:
2.1 Data analysis strategy:
This project is designed to examine the predictive validity of high school grade point
average and university entrance examination scores to predict students’ college
academic success which is measured by first-year college grade point average. Various
dataset of different 705 students were collected. Their identification no was given as 1to
705.The GPA average score in the freshman university year, High school class rank,
ACT entrance examination score and academic year of those different students were
collected. High school class rank and entrance examination scores (ACT Score) are
chosen as independent variables and freshman year university average GPA, is selected
to serve as dependent variable. In order to answer the main research questions, linear
multiple regression analysis will be employed.

2.2. Statistical Method:

Variables for Analysis:
 Independent or intervening variables for this project will be high school rank
and University entrance test scores.
 Dependent or outcome variable in the project will be student grade point
average at the end of the freshman year in the university.
Statistical Method:
The data analysis for this study will include both descriptive and inferential statistics.
Descriptive statistics will be computed for predictor variables (High School class rank
and entrance test score), and for the criterion variable (freshman years grade point
average).
Multiple linear regression analysis will be done. The analysis evaluated whether High
School class rank will be an accurate predictor in predicting university academic success
and whether adding of University entrance test scores improved the prediction validity
as measured by first-year university average GPA.
Testing Hypothesis:
The hypotheses in the study will be tested at the 0.05 level of significance. All the
analyses will be conducted using Statistical Packages for Social Science (SPSS 20)
software.
H0: High school rank and entrance score have no effect on Freshman GPA
H1: High school rank and entrance score have effect on Freshman GPA

2.3. Data analyzing procedure in Detail:

Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and frequency) will be computed to
describe and compare performance of the freshman year. Correlations between
independent variables and dependent variables will be calculated. Datasets will be
divided into two parts, 70% for model training and 30% validation. The multiple linear
regressions will be used for the modeling. Area under the curve will be calculated from
validation datasets, for the accuracy of the models.
3. Expected Result:
There will be a positive association between High School class rank and entrance

test score with freshman university grade point average in the State University and
the high school rank and entrance test score can be used to predict of the freshman
university grade point with high accuracy.
4. References

1. Melaku Tesfa, s1397257 (2012). The validity of University Entrance

Examination and High school Grade point average for predicting first
year university students’ academic performance.,
m.t.tesema@student.utwente.nl, University of Twente, Faculty of
Behavioral Science.
2. A P Gautam,1 BH Paudel,1 CS Agrawal,1 SR Niraula,1 J Van Dalen2
(VOL.10 | NO. 1 | ISSUE 37 | JAN - MAR 2012 ). Kathmandu University
Medical Journal Page 66 Examination of Relationships of Scores
Obtained in Grades 10 and 12 with the Entry and Success in
Undergraduate Medical Education, Kathmandu University, Nepal.
3. Nitza Davidovitch (Third Quarter 2015 Volume 11, Number 3). Journal
of International Education Research –, Predicting Academic Success
Using Admission Profiles, Ariel University of Samaria, Israel Dan Soen,
Ariel University of Samaria, Israel.
4. V. Aramburo, B. Boroel & G. Pineda (2016, 15-17 June 2016).
EDUHEM ,7th International Conference on Intercultural Education
“Education, Health and ICT for a Transcultural World”, Almeria, Spain
Predictive factors associated with academic performance in college
students, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Science Direct.
5. Applied Linear Statistical Models, Fifth Edition(2005). Michael H.
Kutner, Christopher J. Nachtsheim, John Neter, William Li, McGraw-
Hill!Irwin, USA.