7-13 April 2020 I flightglobal.

com

FINANCE

Hard times
US airlines queue up
for emergency bailout

£3.90 No Canada Careers advice

1 4
Ottawa rejects flag How to survive the
carrier’s Transat bid 12 current downturn 23
9 770015 371310
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 CONTENTS
Volume 197 Number 5730
7-13 APRIL 2020

Ticket refunds to run down

airlines’ cash reserves P10

Gene J Puskar/AP/Shutterstock
NEWS COVER STORY
BEHIND THE HEADLINES
6 USA set to 7-13 April 2020 I flightglobal.com

For our Training & support virus-hit

Development Guide report THIS WEEK aerospace
(P23), David Learmount 7 Boeing’s cash flow under the spotlight
investigates the challenges 8 Deferrals looming as airlines grapple with Carriers, airports and
delivery gluts manufacturers will all be
that are facing manufactur-
eligible for portion of
ers and airlines in the age of AIR TRANSPORT total $2 trillion aid FINANCE

Hard times
highly automated cockpits. package, including

AirTeamImages
10 Losses will deepen on Covid-19 claims.
US airlines queue up
for emergency bailout

And Murdo Morrison looks ‘We want our money back’ say Canadian cash for staff £3.90 No Canada Careers advice

for advice on how the

1 4
Ottawa rejects flag How to survive the

carriers’ customers 9 770015 371310

carrier’s Transat bid 12 current downturn 23

industry and current pilots 11 Etihad adapts to weather coronavirus

can weather the coronavirus 12 Competition issues threaten Air Canada offer FEATURES
downturn (P28) for Transat.
Air Italy asset packages attract non-binding bids.
Pilots approve Qantas Project Sunrise pay plan 23 Shock and rebound
13 A350 flew below 670ft far from airport. As aviation reels from a raft of massive technical and
Language barrier contributed to Lyon ground market confidence disruptions, one thing is clear:
conflict, say investigators assumptions on everything from aircraft design and
manufacturing to the recruitment market for pilots
DEFENCE
Shutterstock

are set to change radically, as our special report on

14 US defence sector battles coronavirus training and development reveals
15 USAF taps private sector tankers to provide
refuelling support
16 Gripen C/D to fill Swedish training gap
REGULARS BUSINESS AVIATION
5 Comment 18 2019 results reveal executive jet sales surge
38 Straight & Level for Embraer
39 Letters 19 Seastar successor makes maiden sortie.
Gama Aviation braces for impact of
41 Classified
coronavirus on services
42 Jobs
Saab

43 Working Week DATA VIEW

20 Pandemic stymies February business Saab’s Gripen E test fleet passes 300h of flight P16

nload the new

Download theCommercial Engines
2019 Commercial Directory
Engines Report
wnload The Engine Directory.
with enhanced
now dataenhanced
with updated and in-depth market
data and analysis
in-depth market analysis
htglobal.com/ComEngDirectory
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KWJOREDOFRPFRPPHQJLQHV
flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 3
CONTENTS

Image of
the week
This A330-200 took time
out from being converted
into a multi-role tanker
transport to conduct an
Airbus-crewed humanitarian
flight from Getafe, Spain, to
Tianjin, in China, on 26
March. The widebody
returned the following day
carrying more than 4 million
face masks to help public
service personnel in Europe
treat coronavirus patients

View more great aviation

shots online and in our
weekly tablet edition:

flightglobal.com/
flight-international

Airbus
The week in numbers NEXT WEEK ENVIRONMENT

79%
Our environment special report reviews weather monitoring
benefits at Frankfurt airport, and the early effects of the
coronavirus downturn
Cirium Dashboard
Use your subscriber login to access Flight International via
For 2019, Cebu Pacific operating profit soared to $248m; smartphone, tablet or desktop, alongside our print issues
the Philippine carrier’s revenue grew 14.4% to $1.7bn – or contact customercare@dvvsubs.com for assistance

€27m
2019 net profit at Italian rocket engine manufacturer Avio
Avio

increased by 5%, despite a launch failure of its Vega vehicle

200 Cirium Dashboard

Number of aircraft from various airlines to be stored at

Shutterstock

Amsterdam Schiphol airport during coronavirus crisis

Stay up to date with the latest news and analysis from the global aviation and aerospace sector: flightglobal.com/news

CAE is readdressing the gender

imbalance in aviation.
6HHKRZDWȵLJKWJOREDOFRP&$(*HQGHUΖPEDODQFH5HSRUW

4 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com


Crest v trough
Reality bites
Before the coronavirus crisis, airlines were forecast to take thousands of new
jets. Now, how the industry copes with a wave of deferrals is the next question
emember those heady times of a few years
R ago, when carriers were ordering new
aircraft in ever greater quantities?
A deal unveiled at Farnborough or Paris
wasn’t a real deal unless the number of jets
was measured in a multiple of 100.
The chief concern was not whether air-
lines would be able to take delivery of all this
new metal, but if the manufacturers could
churn aircraft out fast enough.
As production systems creaked under the
strain, that worry then shifted to the supply
chain; could it cope with rate 57? Something
higher? And across both airframers?
When the 737 Max was grounded and de-
liveries stopped – the narrowbody arguably a
victim of the need for ever-higher output –
capacity concerns came to the fore.
That time seems long ago. Capacity is still a
worry, but there is now too much, not too little.
In this new coronavirus-induced reality,
the focus is increasingly on all the deliveries
that were expected over the next two years.
Flight International analysis suggests that a
little over 2,700 aircraft from Airbus or Boe-
ing were due to be taken by carriers in the pe-
riod to the end of 2021.
It does not take a deep knowledge of the
airline industry to conclude that figure is fan-
ciful and to predict a wave of deferrals.
IATA forecasts suggest that the eventual re-
covery will be U-shaped – with a return to
growth some time off.
While the immediate task is survival, all
involved will need to make a sober assess-
flightglobal.com
dhtgip/Shutterstock
ment of the short- and medium-term pros-
pects for the sector.
Airbus may think overbooking will allow it
flexibility to cope with cancellations and defer-
rals, but when the likes of EasyJet founder Steli-
os Haji-Ioannou start raising concerns about fu-
ture capital expenditures, you begin to wonder
just how flexible Airbus can be.
Companies that develop
sound strategies to deal
with a new normal will be
the long-term survivors
Suppliers may also be left pondering by
how much they need to reduce output when
the assembly lines start rolling again.
Needless to say, companies that develop
sound strategies to deal with a new normal
will be the long-term survivors.
But what will the new normal look like?
Will companies choose more teleconferenc-
ing, rather than face-to-face meetings in fu-
ture? Will air travel be priced as a luxury
rather than a mode for the masses?
For now, we just do not know. But it is also
worth remembering that humans are travel-
lers. Airliners allow us to explore our world,
they connect families and power the global
economy. That reality has not changed. ■
See This Week P8
COMMENT
Pilot plight
few weeks ago, student pilots
A approaching graduation
destined to join an industry desperate for
were
their services. Not now. With much of the
world’s airliner fleet grounded and –
under a very best case scenario – a return
to 2019 traffic levels unlikely before the
end of 2021, newly qualified pilots will be
entering a jobs market that no longer
needs them.
This is not the first time. The furloughs
and painful airline restructuring that fol-
lowed the terrorist attacks of 11 September
2001 meant that – in the USA especially,
but also in Europe – the recruitment of en-
try-level pilots was halted or severely lim-
ited for the best part of a decade.
A generation of would-be first officers
was lost and the industry began paying
the price in the 2010s. With the US sector
robust again and massive fleet expansion
in Asia and the Middle East, a flightcrew
shortage became one of the industry’s
preoccupations.
As with engineers and doctors, first
officers cannot be trained overnight. It
takes years to create a pipeline of airline
pilots. However, unless aspiring aviators
have a realistic job prospect at the end, it
seems inevitable that the training sector
will be starved of recruits for as long as
airlines feel the after-effects of this crisis.
For the current cohort of trainees, the
outlook appears even bleaker. Some will
have incurred six-figure debts based on
the promise that they had a first officer’s
salary and a career of 30 or 40 years
awaiting them.
The only consolation that any of us
who have lived through crises before will
be able to offer is that this one – like all
the others – will not last forever. The in-
dustry will come back strongly and, with
it, demand for the services of pilots. ■
See Special Report P23
Aureliy/Shutterstock
Throttling back
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 5
COVER STORY

BRIEFING
CARGO SEAT-BAG CONCEPT TAKES OFF
Airlines will be required to provide ‘reasonable’
minimum service in exchange for funding

MODIFICATION The European Union Aviation Safety

Mark J Terrill/AP/Shutterstock
Agency has approved a cabin cargo modification for Airbus
A320-family jets, after an accelerated development effort
spurred by the coronavirus crisis. Developed by Colibri Aero
and J&C Aero, the cargo seat-bag configuration comprises a kit
for a triple-seat block enabling up to 75kg (170lb) of cargo to be
stored on each, as well as another 9kg underneath. “The kit can
be easily installed in minutes,” says the development team. PANDEMIC PILAR WOLFSTELLER SAN FRANCISCO

FLIGHTGLOBAL AIRLINES WEBINAR

INSIGHT FlightGlobal’s latest webinar – Airline chiefs on
surviving a crisis – aired as we went to press on 2 April, with
USA set to support
contributions from former Air Canada, Malaysia Airlines and
Cathay Pacific chief executives Montie Brewer, Christoph
Mueller and Tony Tyler. You can watch our webinars on
virus-hit aerospace
demand and find details about future events by visiting Carriers, airports and manufacturers will all be eligible for
flightglobal.com/events-and-webinars portion of total $2tn aid package, including cash for staff
PRODUCTION-STANDARD MQ-9B FLIES S President Donald Trump share buybacks, and restrictions
TESTING General Atomics Aeronautical Systems conducted
the first flight of a production-representative MQ-9B
U on 27 March signed off on a
$2 trillion aid package designed
on stock dividends and execu-
tive salaries.
SkyGuardian from its El Mirage facility in California on 30 March. to support distressed companies In addition, airlines will be
The unmanned air vehicle will undergo evaluation to collect and employees impacted by required to conduct minimum
data in support of future military certification. Launch customer economic disruption due to the service levels “to the extent
the UK Royal Air Force will receive 16 examples, under the coronavirus pandemic. reasonable and practicable” up
designation Protector RG1. Australia has also selected the The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, until 30 September.
MQ-9B, with Belgium in negotiations to acquire the type. and Economic Security Act has The aerospace industry has as
provisions for the air transport of yet issued little public reaction
INTERJET’S SUKHOIS UP FOR GRABS industry and its workers to the to the law as it continues to
DISPOSAL Mexican carrier Interjet’s fleet of 22 grounded tune of $58 billion. It includes review the 880 pages of text.
Sukhoi Superjet 100s is entering a formal remarketing process, support for passenger and cargo But trade body the Aerospace
with Berlin-based Cordner Aviation mandated to sell the airlines, general aviation, as well Industries Association (AIA) calls
aircraft. The carrier has progressively grounded its Russian- as air transport-related employees the law “a blueprint to aid the
sourced regional jets over the last couple of years. and contractors, plus the broader American people, our employees
aerospace industry. and the industries that sustain our
MD HELICOPTERS LOSES CHIEF EXECUTIVE The measure provides loans to national and economic security”.
LEADERSHIP Lynn Tilton resigned as chief executive of MD passenger airlines and related “For aerospace and defense,
Helicopters on 23 March, after a bankruptcy court ordered businesses ($25 billion), cargo this legislation offers tools and
that she sell the manufacturer to repay debts to her holding airlines ($4 billion) and firms incentives that can help provide
company Patriarch Partners. Tilton remains a director and “critical to maintaining national some support and stability
“large secured lender to, and shareholder” of the airframer, security” ($17 billion). during this crisis. It is a critical
which says it continues to be a “viable, thriving business”. Aside from loans, the bill will investment in our small
provide “payroll support” of businesses and supply chain,
MEGGITT POWERS TO JAL ENGINE DEAL about another $29 billion for pas- which are the lifeblood of our in-
SUPPORT Meggitt has secured a three-year contract with senger and cargo airlines, and $3 dustry,” AIA says, while provid-
Japan Airlines (JAL) to provide engine component maintenance billion for contractors such as bag- ing no more detail.
and repair services for the carrier’s Boeing 737s, 767s and 777s. gage handlers and catering work- Boeing has not commented
The MRO provider says the work will be performed at its ers. This money must be used for specifically on the law, deferring
expanded facility at Singapore’s Seletar Aerospace park. wages, benefits and health care. to a statement issued on 26
Airports will be supported with March when the bill was still
UK INDUSTRY UNITES ON VENTILATOR PROJECT an additional $10 billion, with working through Congress.
CRISIS Airbus, GKN, Rolls-Royce and other aerospace and $100 million going specifically to That statement thanks the
automotive engineering firms are responding to a UK smaller general aviation airports. Trump administration and
requirement for 10,000 medical ventilators amid the coronavirus The document also specifies relief lawmakers for taking action to
outbreak. Production commenced last week following from excise taxes for general avia- support Boeing, its 17,000
development of a design meeting medical specifications, says tion commercial operations. suppliers and the broader Amer-
the VentilatorChallengeUK consortium. Nearly 30 firms are In return for the aid, airlines ican economy. ■
involved, also including BAE Systems, Meggitt and Thales. will be subject to a six-month Additional reporting by Jon
ban on furloughs as well as no Hemmerdinger in Boston

6 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com


FINANCE JON HEMMERDINGER BOSTON
Boeing’s cash flow under the spotlight
Analysts say reserves of some $30 billion could sustain business for at least 10 months, but many variables are in play
oeing should have sufficient
B liquidity to keep operating for
eight to 10 months, possibly long-
er, according to analysts, despite
speculation about its financial
condition based on recent calls
for $60 billion in US government
aid for the aerospace industry.
That estimate, based on Boeing
having around $30 billion in cash
reserves and available liquidity,
reflects estimates that Boeing will
spend $3-4 billion per month.
The company could possibly
last much longer on its current
reserves if it essentially shutters
its commercial aircraft operation,
although the result would be
“economic carnage” for the aero-
space industry, which would af-
fect the broader economy, says
Teal Group aerospace analyst
Richard Aboulafia.
The airframer’s monthly out-
lay could vary significantly
based on the ultimate duration
of the ongoing temporary pro-
duction shutdown, and also on
when it restarts final assembly of
the 737 Max. Other variables in-
clude the duration of the corona-
virus downturn, Boeing’s re-
sponse to the crisis, the state of
the airline industry and the Max
certification and return to ser-
vice dates.
Boeing has already taken some
action to cut costs, on 2 April
starting a process to cut thou-
sands of US employees from its
payroll via a voluntary process.
Although analysts describe
Boeing’s financial situation as
concerning, they note the strength
of the company’s military busi-
ness and suspect it may also
secure government aid.
Boeing has asked for $60
billion in government support for
the aerospace industry, with
President Donald Trump signing
into law a coronavirus relief
package on 27 March.
Boeing chief executive David
Calhoun had previously told Fox
Business that his company re-
mains financially sound even
flightglobal.com
Deferrals looming
as airlines grapple
with delivery gluts
This Week P8
Airframer has moved to trim headcount through voluntary scheme
without government dollars.
Calhoun says Boeing had $15
billion in cash. “Our enterprise is
not threatened,” he points out,
and the company “will get
through this”, even without
government aid.
“The credit markets, at the mo-
ment, are closed to us,” Calhoun
adds.
Boeing ended 2019 with about
$10 billion in cash and other
short-term investments, and has
since drawn down a $13.8 billion
loan. It also has about $10 billion
in available revolving credit, and
will save $4 billion, or possibly
slightly more, by its recent sus-
pension of dividend payments,
says Ronald Epstein, managing
director of aerospace and defence
at Bank of America Merrill
Lynch. That brings liquidity to
around $38 billion.
EMBRAER DEAL
But Epstein subtracts about $6
billion in short-term debt that
must be repaid, and notes that
Boeing could free another $4.2
billion should it choose to
shelve a planned purchase this
year of Embraer’s commercial
aircraft division.
Those adjustments bring Boe-
ing’s actual available liquidity to
THIS WEEK
sumed commercial aircraft pro-
duction, including Max assembly
at a rate of 32 aircraft per month.
It also assumes Boeing Commer-
cial Airplanes has “no cash in-
flow” during the month as air-
lines defer deliveries.
“Liquidity is clearly necessary
to support [Boeing] along with
suppliers to continue manufac-
turing, and support any potential
production disruptions, while
airlines… navigate significantly
lower demand,” Jefferies says.
Ted S Warren/AP/Shutterstock
“Issues around airline payments
could increase the needed short-
term liquidity.”
Aboulafia estimates that when
commercial production – includ-
ing that of the 737 Max – is up
and running, Boeing Commercial
around $28-32 billion, with the Airplanes’ monthly cash expend-
range reflecting the Embraer deal. iture would be in the region of
Boeing has not publicly $3-4 billion.
paused the Embraer acquisition,
but there are suggestions that it DEFENCE REVENUE
might do so “to prioritise the Aboulafia notes that Boeing’s de-
preservation of cash in the near fence division, which receives
term while it moves through the guaranteed profits from govern-
coronavirus disruption and 737 ment customers, could help slow
Max issues,” says a 19 March re- the cash outflow. But he says the
search report from Jefferies. broader US defence industry
Embraer said on 26 March that largely cannot compensate for the
it did not expect European anti- slowdown of the massive com-
trust clearance for the deal until mercial aerospace sector.
after June 2020, potentially giving Boeing Defense, Space & Secu-
Boeing some breathing room. rity generated a $2.6 billion oper-
Epstein estimates that Boeing ating profit in 2019 on revenue of
burns cash at about $2-3 billion about $26 billion – one-third of
monthly, with the figure likely the entire company’s turnover.
closer to the $3 billion mark. At Aboulafia says Boeing could
that rate, he says, Boeing could conceivably reduce spending to
consume its current liquidity only $1-2 billion per month by
within 10 months, perhaps less. essentially shuttering commer-
Epstein says he is working on cial factories and laying off staff.
the expectation that the crisis Such a move, which Calhoun
will abate in three to four has suggested is not forthcom-
months. “Our base assumption ing, would be an “economic ca-
is you get through the virus situ- tastrophe” but would signifi-
ation in a reasonable amount of cantly ease Boeing’s cash
time,” he says. crunch, Aboulafia says.
The Jefferies report puts Boe- “You can last quite a long time
ing’s liquidity at a similar level on that,” he says. “There is not a
and pegs the commercial divi- problem of liquidity at that
sion’s cash burn at up to $4.3 bil- level.”
lion per month. Boeing declines to comment
Jefferies’ estimate reflects re- on its cash-flow position. ■
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 7
THIS WEEK
OUTLOOK
JON HEMMERDINGER BOSTON MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON
& GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE
Deferrals looming
as airlines grapple
with delivery gluts
With lockdowns around the world driving down demand,
carriers and airframers must address huge order backlogs
A s airlines struggle with an
unprecedented slump in
passenger demand triggered by
the coronavirus pandemic, a key
question centres on the fate of
their near-term order backlogs.
Fleet data from Cirium shows
that between now and the end of
next year, the world’s airlines are
scheduled to take delivery of
more than 2,700 Airbus and Boe-
ing passenger aircraft. A further
350 aircraft are due to go to les-
sors where the end user has not
yet been identified.
Of those on order for passenger
airlines, Airbus has the highest ex-
posure at 1,546 aircraft, while
Boeing’s 2020-2021 scheduled de-
liveries comprise 1,159 aircraft.
However, Cirium data includes
an estimate of 880 737 Max deliv-
eries during the period, as it
anticipates shipments recom-
mencing during 2020, subject to
approvals. This data excludes
lessor orders without an identi-
fied operator.
Asia-Pacific airlines account
for the highest number of aircraft
due for delivery over the next 21
months (902 units, or 33%), with
Indigo, at 72 aircraft, having the
largest number scheduled.
However, from an airline per-
spective in global terms, the top
three places are all occupied by
US carriers. Leading the pack, ac-
cording to Cirium, is Southwest
Airlines with 114 737 Max due
through to the end of 2021. Delta
Air Lines is in second place with
98 deliveries, followed by Ameri-
can Airlines with 90.
European carriers make up
more than a quarter of the total
(702 aircraft). Turkish Airlines is
the European carrier with largest
8 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
near-term backlog, at 89 aircraft.
This ranks Turkish fourth overall
in global terms. Other European
airlines with significant backlogs
due for delivery by the end of
next year are Wizz Air (51), Ry-
anair (50) and Lufthansa (40).
It is worth noting that the Ciri-
um figures are effectively a well-
informed guess, and as yet do not
incorporate the significant wave
of deferrals that are on the way.
Nonetheless, the broader num-
bers give some indication of the
scope of the order overhang facing
Asia-Pacific carriers in particular.
New aircraft deliveries have
collapsed in recent months as
quarantines and lockdowns have
swept the region, not to mention
the tremendous financial chal-
lenges facing carriers.
New aircraft deliveries
have collapsed in
recent months as
quarantines and
lockdowns have swept
the Asia-Pacific region
Cirium data shows that in
February 2020, Asia-Pacific car-
riers took just 11 new aircraft,
compared with 36 in February
2019. China, which was under a
massive lockdown in February
as it fought the virus that origi-
nated in Wuhan, took no new
aircraft whatsoever.
Early figures suggest March
was almost as bad, with 13
aircraft delivered – again, none
to China.
Due to the popularity of the
A320neo, Cirium estimates that
Airbus has a total of 540 deliver-
ies, across all aircraft types,
scheduled for the region in the
coming 21 months, compared
with Boeing’s 362.
Overall, 429 A320neo-family
jets are estimated as due for deliv-
ery before the end of 2021, fol-
lowed by 258 737 Max jets.
While the absence of the Max
due to its global grounding cre-
ated a capacity shortfall in late
2019 – in retrospect a relatively
idyllic period for the industry –
it is doubtful major low-cost cus-
tomers for the type still have the
appetite for an influx of new
metal. Lion Air, SpiceJet, and
VietJet Air are estimated to be re-
ceiving 100 737 Max jets by the
end of 2021.
However, China, the first coun-
try to ground the type in 2019,
could paradoxically emerge as a
bright spot for the 737 Max,
where 115 examples are due for
delivery by the end of 2021.
Should Beijing re-certificate the
type in mid- to late-2020, the
country’s state-backed carriers
and its reviving aviation sector
could prove crucial for the trou-
bled programme.
As for widebodies bound for
Asia, Boeing and Airbus are at
parity. Airbus is set to deliver 105
– including 71 A350-900s – and
Boeing 104, including 58 787-9s.
One exposed programme ap-
pears be the A330neo, with 21
deliveries scheduled in the re-
gion until the end of 2021. Its
success is also dependent on just
two operators: AirAsia X – which
announced deferrals a month be-
fore its coronavirus grounding –
and has nine examples due for
delivery in the period, and Garu-
da Indonesia, with eight.
US CARRIERS
While Asia-Pacific is the region
with the largest total of scheduled
deliveries, a handful of US carri-
ers dominate the list of the most
exposed individual airlines.
That is because US behemoths
American, Delta, Southwest and
United Airlines collectively hold
orders for 388 Airbus and Boeing
flightglobal.com

aircraft due for delivery through
the end of the year.
Those orders alone account for
14% of the airframers’ airline
backlog over the period.
ANALYSIS MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON
Lessors scheduled to receive more than a quarter of mainline aircraft in near-term
A quarter of the more than 3,000
mainline jets due for delivery
over the next 21 months are
owned and/or managed by
operating lessors.
Cirium fleets data reveals that
airlines globally are due to receive
more than 2,700 Airbus and
Boeing passenger aircraft
through to the end of 2021, either
directly or via operating lease.
Of those 2,700 deliveries
scheduled, 460 aircraft are due
to be delivered via a lessor. A
further 350 are due to go to
lessors during the period where
the end-user has not been iden-
tified by Cirium.
The data from Cirium shows
that over half (460 aircraft) of the
800-plus airliners scheduled are
flightglobal.com
Etihad adapts
to weather
coronavirus
Air Transport P11
Delta is due to receive
98 more aircraft by
the end of 2021
AirTeamImages
Indeed, the figures reveal the
exposure Airbus and Boeing have,
not only in the US airline sector,
but more specifically to four of the
world’s largest operators.
destined for just four lessors: Air
Lease (149), AerCap (126), Avolon
(100) and GECAS (93).
Brazilian airline Azul has the
highest number of lease commit-
ments in the near-term, with 29
leased Airbus A320-family aircraft
and a single leased A330neo due
over the next 21 months. Providers
Air Lease is significantly exposed, holding a commitment for 149 jets
The ability of those carriers to
recover from the coronavirus
downturn will play a significant
role in determining if Airbus and
Boeing can keep delivering air-
craft at anywhere near the record
levels of recent years.
North American airlines hold
593 of the global total of 2,705
near-term orders, or 22%, accord-
ing to Cirium data. They are split
roughly even between the
manufacturers: 277 for Airbus
and 316 for Boeing.
Southwest is due to receive
114 aircraft – all of them 737 Max
– between now and the end of
next year: more aircraft than any
other airline anywhere.
CURRENT POSITION
Delta, meanwhile, holds orders
for 98 aircraft for delivery during
the period: 27 A220s, 55 A321s,
14 A330neos and two A350s,
Cirium data shows.
American is scheduled to take
90 jets by the end of 2021: 36 737
Max, 33 A321s, and 21 787s.
United is due to receive 86
aircraft, including 74 737 Max
and 12 787s.
Financial services company
Jefferies is already anticipating a
major aircraft delivery slump. It
predicts Airbus and Boeing will
deliver only 118 widebodies this
year – down more than 70%
include AerCap, Avolon, BOC
Aviation and CDB Aviation. Other
large near-term lease commit-
ments are held by Vistara (22
A320-family jets) and American
Airlines (21 Boeing 787s).
From an aircraft-type perspec-
tive, the vast majority (88%) are
single-aisles: 358 737 Max jets
Airbus
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 9
DELIVERIES
The ability of US
carriers to recover will
determine if Airbus
and Boeing can keep
deliveries at anywhere
near recent levels
from the 426 twin-aisles shipped
last year – according to a 31
March research report.
Airbus will this year hand over
an estimated 45 widebodies,
down from 173 in 2019, and
Boeing 73 twin-aisles, down from
2019’s total of 253.
Jefferies forecasts that wide-
body deliveries will gradually in-
crease to a combined 238 aircraft
annually by 2023.
It expects Airbus will deliver
489 narrowbodies (including
A220s) this year, down from 690
in 2019.
Boeing, Jefferies predicts, will
hand over 220 737 Max in 2020,
with deliveries of about 35
aircraft monthly. By compari-
son, Boeing delivered 580 737s
(including NG and Max models),
or nearly 50 aircraft per month,
in 2018 – the last full year before
the 2019 grounding. ■
and 348 A320-family aircraft. The
most popular widebody for
delivery to lessors over the next
20 months or so is the 787, with
68 due.
However, the lessors’ exposure
to future deliveries would normally
go beyond the aircraft they have
on direct order. Data from Cirium
shows that traditionally around
30% of aircraft delivered each year
directly to airlines are subject to a
sale-and-leaseback transaction at
the point of title transfer.
This means it could be
expected that lessors may have
been exposed to another 800-
plus deliveries over the next 20
months – putting the possible
total operating-lease commit-
ment at 1,600 aircraft. ■
AIR TRANSPORT
LITIGATION PILAR WOLFSTELLER SAN FRANCISCO
‘We want our cash back’ say Canadian customers
ir Canada, Air Transat, Sun-
A wing, Swoop and  WestJet
have been accused of  breach of
contract in a class action lawsuit
filed in British Columbia (BC) for
refusing to refund tickets pur-
chased after the  coronavirus
severely affected air travel.
Instead, the five Canadian
airlines relaxed usually rigid
change-of-booking rules by
granting passengers non-trans-
ferrable credits towards future
travel, the plaintiffs claim in a 27
March filing.
After the Canadian govern-
ment advised against non-essen-
tial travel in mid-March, the five
carriers radically curtailed their
schedules and began laying off
FORECAST GRAHAM DUNN LONDON
Losses will deepen on Covid-19 claims
IATA warns financial position of operators is to worsen in second quarter as $35 billion in flight refunds become due
requirement to refund an
A estimated $35 billion in
airline tickets during the second
quarter will deepen the impact of
the coronavirus crisis on carriers’
cash reserves, according to IATA,
which also projects an overall
industry net loss of $39 billion for
the period.
In a 31 March update, the
airline association says its fresh
analysis shows carriers could
burn through $61 billion of
their  cash reserves during the
second quarter amid the virtual
grounding of scheduled passen-
ger services.
IATA had already stated, on
24  March, that the coronavirus
outbreak could end up wiping
around $250 billion off total
airline passenger revenues in
2020 – a figure that equates to
roughly 44% of passenger
revenues for 2019.
Now it has detailed the scale of
potential losses during the sec-
ond quarter – a period in which
the industry is dealing with a
global lockdown.
10 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
staff. They have allowed passen-
gers to rebook without charge on
dates later in the year when, it is
expected, airlines will resume
normal schedules.
Some travellers, however, are
demanding their money back,
saying they may not wish to
travel even after restrictions
are lifted.
For others, it is a financial bur-
den to have money sitting with
airlines rather than available to
cover daily living expenses, says
the suit, filed by BC resident Janet
Donaldson.
The suit says airlines are keep-
ing passengers’ money while also
not incurring the costs of operat-
ing cancelled flights.
American Airlines jets stand idle at Pittsburgh International airport
While airlines have reacted by
grounding fleets and furloughing
staff, IATA chief economist Brian
Pearce notes that this does not
tackle the full cost burden.
“The trouble is airlines also
have costs which are either fixed
or semi-fixed – so it’s difficult to
cut all of these,” he says.
“Airlines are doing their best
to take out as much cost as possi-
ble, but there will be some
unavoidable costs that airlines
have to pay even if their fleet is
Further, the lawsuit says the operations completely, did not
spread of the coronavirus into a
global pandemic, and the ensu-
wish to comment on the specific
lawsuit, but says it believes it is
ing travel restrictions were “out- correct in refusing refunds for
side the passengers’ control”, missed flights owing to global
thus mandating refunds. events such as the current
The lawsuit could encompass coronavirus crisis.
thousands of passengers who It cites the “extraordinary cir-
hold tickets for travel with the cumstances” and “burden” on
named airlines in the coming the airline industry, which “puts
months. its very existence into question”.
Calgary-based WestJet, which Air Transat describes the issue
announced in late March that it of a “24-month credit voucher”
was cutting almost half of its as an “acceptable solution”.
staff, declined to comment on the Other airlines named in the
legal proceedings. The carrier has suit  could not be reached for
grounded 120 aircraft, which is comment.
about two-thirds of its fleet. Two weeks ago, Canadian air-
Vacation specialist Air Transat, lines asked their government for
which is winding down financial assistance. ■
$7  billion for the same quarter
in 2019.
Pearce says that the challenge
for airline cash reserves is com-
pounded by the requirement to
refund sold tickets. “Airlines
have accumulated quite a large
amount of tickets that have been
sold but not flown. We estimate
Gene J Puskar/AP/Shutterstock
that for the second quarter of this
year there is around $35 billion of
tickets that are due for refunds –
so that would be on top of the
unavoidable costs, another very
big drain on airlines’ cash flow.”
Combined with the expected
grounded. And that is really part losses – even with depreciation
of the cash-burn challenge.” added back in as it is a non-cash
While IATA sees airlines cost – this points to an overall
reducing their variable costs, cash drain across the industry of
including fuel, by around 70% $61 billion during the quarter.
in the second quarter, it expects Reiterating his call for prompt
fixed costs to be cut by only government support, IATA direc-
around 30%. tor general Alexandre de Juniac
Set against an expected 68% says: “Airlines cannot cut costs
fall in airline revenues for the fast enough to stay ahead of the
second quarter, it sees the indus- impact of this crisis. Without re-
try posting a collective net loss of lief, the industry’s cash position
$39 billion for the period. That could deteriorate by $61 billion
compares with a net profit of in the second quarter.” ■
flightglobal.com

OPERATIONS GRAHAM DUNN LONDON
Etihad adapts to weather coronavirus
Abu Dhabi carrier believes ongoing restructuring effort has left it in better condition to cope with market disruption
tihad Aviation Group chief
E executive Tony Douglas
believes the business’s ongoing
restructuring programme has
given the Gulf carrier the agility
to better manage its operation
through the coronavirus crisis
and to position itself for when air
travel markets reopen.
On 25 March, the Abu Dhabi
airline suspended all passenger
services, initially for two weeks,
in line with travel restrictions im-
plemented by the United Arab
Emirates authorities as part of
measures to counter the spread of
the coronavirus pandemic.
Before the grounding, Etihad
Airways was operating around
40% of its normal flying as
various travel restrictions had
already taken a toll on the air-
line’s network.
“We were flying to 76 destina-
tions [before the crisis],” Douglas
tells Flight International. “Network
planning has been a moving target
– it would change sometimes 10
times a day as different restrictions
came in – so it has been a constant
moving target for us.
“It started off with China –
apart from Beijing. Then Nagoya,
which was a stop on from
Beijing, then the rest of Japan and
the rest of the Far East,” he says.
However, he adds, it was really
during the latter part of March
that the network was hit as travel
restrictions were tightened.
FLEET CONFIGURATIONS
“One of the things with Etihad –
because we are a midsized airline
and we have different fleet con-
figurations – is we are quite
adaptable,” Douglas adds.
That meant the carrier could
deploy different-sized aircraft as
demand on routes reduced: for
example, moving from an Airbus
A380 to a Boeing 777, or a 787-10
down to the smaller 787-8.
“We have been very nimble
and adaptive, redeploying the
fleet and right-sizing [as the mar-
ket changed],” he says.
flightglobal.com
Competition issues
threaten Air Canada
offer for Transat
Air Transport P12
Airline had withdrawn A380s on some routes, replacing them with smaller jets to meet reduced demand
As the crisis has deepened,
Etihad – in line with other opera-
tors across the globe – has taken
steps to reduce its costs.
“We have taken a wide-reach-
ing series of measures: we cannot
afford to leave any stone un-
turned,” says Douglas.
“All management and execu-
tive-grade staff are taking 50%
salary reductions,” he states.
All other staff have taken a 25%
reduction. He also points to pay-
ment holidays arranged with les-
sors and savings discussions with
all of its supply chain.
He also mentions efforts to
make the most of the unusual
period of having its fleet on the
ground. “We must use this
time,” he says, pointing to the
opportunity to ensure the airline
is in the best shape for when
flights resume.
“For example, the interiors,
when we are flying again, they
will be spotless,” he says.
Similarly, he says, it is an oppor-
tunity to carry out non-essential
software upgrades or to move
C-checks forward slightly.
Not that all of Etihad’s passen-
ger aircraft will remain on the
ground. Other action includes the
decision to deploy some of its
787-10s on cargo routes to sup-
plement the cargo division’s fleet
of 777 freighters.
“It’s a bit of a boom in air
freight – albeit a temporary
phenomenon,” says Douglas.
Around three-quarters of Etihad’s
cargo is belly-hold capacity, so
the addition of 787 passenger
aircraft – which provide capacity
for 12 lower-deck pallets and
four  containers – will help
provide additional lift during
this period.
STEMMING LOSSES
The global coronavirus crisis
arrived as Etihad was working
through a major restructuring,
after mounting losses both at the
core airline and with its high-
profile equity-alliance invest-
ments – Air Berlin and Alitalia
being the most prominent.
Initiatives include changes to
the group and cutting back capac-
ity in a bid to improve load fac-
tors and yields. While the carrier
remained in the red in 2019, the
$870 million loss was an im-
provement on the $1.28 billion
loss of the previous year.
“We are in the middle of a five-
year transformation – we have
taken $650 million out of the cost
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 11
AIR TRANSPORT
Photosounds/Shutterstock
base in 2019,” says Douglas,
noting that the carrier is benefit-
ing as it is already in a process of
“going back to basics” and chal-
lenging all costs.
He adds that if the carrier were
in “the condition we were two
years ago”, it would not have had
the agility to react the way it has
to this crisis. “I think it is that
agility that has allowed us to
pivot more easily,” he says.
Douglas believes adaptability
will be key for when markets
reopen. “None of us has a crystal
ball to know how, when or where
the market will present itself
back. [We should] embrace the
ambiguity of the situation.
“Depending on how long
things last for, it’s fair to assume
quite a few airlines will run out of
financial resources and there will
be some kind of consolidation
within the industry,” he says,
adding that it may be that the
industry has to reset itself.
“This wasn’t something that
anyone would have planned,”
Douglas adds. “[But] I am an
optimist and I see good coming
out of this. It will shake up the
industry and it will force us to
be  more conscious on the fine
margins.” ■
AIR TRANSPORT
EMPLOYMENT
CIRIUM SINGAPORE
Pilots approve
Qantas Project
Sunrise pay plan
antas long-haul pilots have
Q voted in favour of a deal
on  pay and conditions for the
carrier’s proposed Project Sun-
rise flights. Under the terms of
C tor has raised “concerns”
the agreement, existing Qantas
crews will fly Airbus A350-
1000s on the ultra-long-haul ser-
vices, if the flag carrier presses
ahead with a launch.
Project Sunrise is the airline’s
initiative to open nonstop
services to the Australian east
coast from New York and London
from around 2022-2023.
The carrier had threatened to
bypass the unions in February,
saying that it would negotiate
directly with individual pilots or
might create a “new employ-
ment entity”, if it could not
come to an agreement with the
Australian and International
Pilots Association.
Qantas says that more than
1,400 pilots voted on the deal,
with 85% in favour.
Airbus has extended a 31
March deadline by which Qantas
was due to firm up a tentative
commitment for up to a dozen
A350-1000s, to allow the pair to
focus on managing the coronavi-
rus crisis. ■
INSOLVENCY GRAHAM DUNN LONDON
Air Italy asset packages attract non-binding bids
iquidators for Air Italy are
L examining non-binding offers
received for the collapsed carri-
er’s assets after a 25 March dead-
line for submissions of interest.
The Italian carrier pulled the
plug on operations in February,
after shareholders were unable
to  reach agreement on fresh
funding.
Air Italy, the former Meridiana
operation, was rebranded and
revamped after Qatar Airways
acquired a 49% stake in the
operator with a view to
12 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
ACQUISITION PILAR WOLFSTELLER SAN FRANCISCO
Competition issues threaten
Air Canada offer for Transat
Regulator says proposed takeover would increase prices and reduce passenger choice
anada’s competition regula-
about the planned takeover of
Transat by Air Canada, which it
says could harm passengers on a
number of routes.
“The Competition Bureau…
has concluded that Air Canada’s
proposed acquisition of Transat is
likely to result in a substantial
lessening or prevention of
competition in the sale of air
travel or vacation packages to
Canadians,” the body announced
on 27 March.
“Eliminating the rivalry be-
tween these airlines would result
in increased prices, less choice,
decreases in service and a signifi-
cant reduction in travel by Cana-
dians on a variety of routes where
their existing networks overlap.”
The Competition Bureau says
that after an examination of the
two airlines’ networks it
determined that the merger
would apply to 83 overlapping
routes: 49 between Canada and
Europe and 34 between Canada
and vacation destinations in
the Caribbean, Central America,
Florida and Mexico. The
developing the business out of
Milan Malpensa airport.
The decision to liquidate the
carrier was made even before the
Decision to liquidate operator came before coronavirus outbreak
JL Images/Shutterstock
Flag carrier and target operate 83 overlapping international routes
transaction would represent a holders voted overwhelmingly in
merger of the only two carriers favour of Air Canada’s C$720
offering a nonstop service on 22 million ($513 million) takeover
of those routes. bid. The deal was expected to
Air Canada says it will review close in the second quarter of
the findings “in due course”. It is 2020; that now looks less likely.
currently busy dealing with the The Competition Bureau says
impact of the coronavirus on its its assessment was made before
business and repatriating the coronavirus pandemic,
Canadian citizens. which, it adds, may have signifi-
Transat is the parent company cant long-term impact on the air-
of holiday specialist carrier Air line industry in Canada.
Transat and operates a sizeable Transport Canada says that it
vacation package business. will complete its public interest
Last August, Transat’s share- assessment by 2 May. ■
coronavirus outbreak took hold includes an aviation package –
in northern Italy. Liquidators on
19 March launched a tender for
which covers the company’s air
operator certificate, traffic rights
two packages of assets. That and airport slots – but no
aircraft. The other package
covers assets from its mainte-
nance business.
Liquidators for Air Italy say
they have received “some” non-
binding offers – without specify-
Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock
ing either the number of bids or
the packages for which they re-
ceived offers. The liquidators
will now “examine them for the
appropriate evaluation”. ■
flightglobal.com
 US defence sector
AIR TRANSPORT
battles coronavirus
Defence P14

INVESTIGATION DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

A350 flew below 670ft far from airport

Rapid descent triggered multiple cockpit alerts with aircraft almost 6.5nm away from runway on approach to Frankfurt
erman investigators have de- call-out and a glideslope warn-
G tailed an approach incident
in which a Thai Airways Airbus
ing. The first officer, who was
flying, ordered a go-around and
A350-900 descended to less than the captain transmitted this de-
670ft above ground while still cision to Frankfurt tower – the
nearly 6.5nm (12km) from touch- first radio contact the crew had
First officer ordered 
down at Frankfurt am Main made with tower controllers.
go-around after 1,000ft call-out

airport. The aircraft (HS-THF)
had been inbound from Phuket,
at night but in good visibility, on
1 January.
While descending through
7,300ft, the crew was instructed
to increase the descent rate.
Approach control subsequently
cleared the flight to 3,000ft and
then to a heading of 040°, at 170kt
(315km/h) or faster, to conduct
the instrument landing system
(ILS) approach to runway 07R.
German investigation authori-
ty BFU says the crew started ex-
tending flaps at 6,000ft and low-
ered the landing-gear at 5,100ft.
At this point the A350’s rate of
descent was around 2,000ft/min,
and this “increased continuous-
ly” as the twinjet reached the 07R
base leg and descended through
Airbus
4,000ft. Flight-data recorder in-
formation indicates the descent
rate reached 3,500ft/min.
An automatic 2,500ft altitude
announcement sounded and the
autopilot was disengaged. BFU
indicates that, some 20s later,
the cockpit-voice recorder
picked up two “sink rate” alerts
and then an automated 1,000ft
BFU says the A350 subse-
quently carried out a second ILS
approach to 07R. As it crossed
the same minimum-height point
of the previous approach, 6.43nm
from the runway, the aircraft was
at 2,238ft. It touched down with-
out further event about 14min
after commencing the go-around.
Investigators have yet to pub-
lish conclusions on the circum-
stances of the incident. ■

INCIDENT DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Lyon ground conflict pinned on language barrier

anguage differences played
L a part in a serious conflict
incident in which a landing Hop
Bombardier CRJ700 was cleared
to cross a runway while an
EasyJet Airbus A319 was taking
off, French investigators have
revealed.
The A319 (G-EZAZ) had been
cleared, in English, to take off
from Lyon’s runway 35L but the
air traffic controller, in French,
subsequently cleared the arriving
CRJ700 (F-GRZL) – simultane-
ously landing on the parallel 35R
– to cross 35L via the B4 exit on
17 March.
Investigation authority BEA
states that the controller, during
his shift, had been routinely clear-
ing landing aircraft to cross 35L,
owing to low departure activity
on the parallel runway, and that
the repetition of tasks had become
“somewhat automatic”.
BEA says he issued the CRJ700
clearance “without detecting the
conflict”, not noticing the depart-
ing A319 during an external
visual scan.
But the inquiry also suggests
the language difference increased
the risk of an accident. The
EasyJet crew, it says, “did not un-
derstand” the crossing clearance,
in French, given to the Hop crew.
The Hop crew was based in
Lyon and already aware of the
possibility of runway incursion,
and the pilots checked runway
35L before the crossing. Another
visual scan, at the same time,
resulted in the controller’s
noticing the conflict. ■

for Stowage Bins

Shorten Aircraft Turns

Passenger Convenience

www.komy.com

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 13

DEFENCE
MANUFACTURING GARRETT REIM LOS ANGELES
US defence sector battles coronavirus
Contractors adopt measures including staggered shifts and remote working after critical infrastructure declaration
hile the rest of the world
W shuts down, the US De-
partment of Defense (DoD) ex-
pects manufacturers to continue
delivering military aircraft – re-
quiring them to comply with
overlapping and changing regula-
tions from federal, state, county
and municipal governments.
To keep factories humming, the
Pentagon issued a memo on 20
March declaring the US defence
industrial base a “critical infra-
structure sector” and exempt from
quarantine enforcement.
In order to avoid spreading the
coronavirus while maintaining
operations, aerospace manufac-
turers say they are trying a myriad
of methods, including hyper-vigi-
lant cleaning, forgoing group
meetings, and distributing face
masks. Most say they are closely
following the recommendations
of the US Centers for Disease Con-
trol and Prevention, as required by
the DoD while staying open.
Boeing says it is “increasing
and enhancing cleaning of high-
touch areas such as cafeterias,
shuttle vehicles, restrooms, light
switches, door handles, railings
and elevators”. It is also “mini-
mising the number and frequen-
cy of face-to-face meetings with
larger groups in areas with active
coronavirus transmission”.
PARTIAL SHUTDOWN
On 23 March, the company sus-
pended production of aircraft at
its facilities in the Puget Sound
area in Washington state, after an
employee contracted coronavirus
and died. In addition to assem-
bling commercial airliners, these
also prepare 767-based KC-46A
Pegasus tankers and 737NG-de-
rived P-8A Poseidon maritime
patrol aircraft.
“Certain non-production work
for all commercial-derivative air-
craft programmes, including for
the KC-46 remote vision system
enhancements, will continue
being done by employees work-
ing remotely,” Boeing says.
14 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
Lockheed Martin is maintaining F-35 production but insists it will protect employees’ health and safety
Other manufacturing sites are
unaffected, the company says.
Those include its CH-47 heavy-lift
helicopter and Bell Boeing V-22
tiltrotor facility in Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania; the AH-64 attack
helicopter and AH-6 light-attack
helicopter plant in Mesa, Arizona;
and the F/A-18E/F and F-15
facility in St. Louis, Missouri.
Bell says its output has not been
impacted either. The company as-
sembles the UH-1Y utility and
AH-1Z attack helicopters in Ama-
rillo, Texas, along with the V-22.
The airframer says it is trying
to use social distancing to pre-
vent the spread of coronavirus at
its manufacturing sites.
“Bell has offered flexible work-
ing arrangements, including
working remote and staggered
work schedules to employees
who are able to do so,” it says.
“These measures limit exposure
to those performing essential
manufacturing, design and
support work on site.”
For AeroVironment of Simi
Valley, California, the company’s
unmanned air vehicle produc-
tion is continuing, while it leans
on prior investments in remote
working technology.
“We are fortunate to have im-
plemented telepresence capabili-
ties and equipped the majority of
our workforce with laptops or
tablets to enable remote opera-
tion, well before this pandemic
struck,” Steve Gitlin, AeroViron-
ment’s vice-president of investor
relations, said in late March.
“Last week, we held our first
virtual all-hands town hall meet-
ing, with more than 700 of our
800-plus employees participating
from Southern California, Hunts-
ville, Alabama, Lawrence, Kan-
sas, New England and the Wash-
ington DC area.”
Other manufacturers, such as
Northrop Grumman and Sikorsky,
say they have similarly increased
cleaning, implemented social dis-
tancing and encouraged working
from home where possible.
Detailing Lockheed Martin’s
response on 27 March, chief ex-
ecutive Marillyn Hewson said
the company “will continue to
protect the health and safety of
our men and women on the job
and their families”, and “contin-
ue to perform and deliver for our
customers”.
“We will continue to engage
national, state, and local leaders
to undertake additional measures
as needed,” Hewson adds.
Ellen Lord, US under secretary
of defense for acquisition and
Lockheed Martin
sustainment, says she is co-
ordinating with state governors to
make sure defence manufacturers
are not caught up in quarantine
enforcement efforts.
PRIORITY MESSAGING
“I put out my memos so that we
didn’t have local law enforce-
ment stopping people on the way
to work,” she said on 25 March.
“We have had incredible collabo-
ration from governors. I spoke
with Governor Tom Wolf from
Pennsylvania last Friday to en-
sure that some Boeing and BAE
[Systems] facilities could keep up
and running.”
A similar conversation was
held with California governor
Gavin Newsom’s chief of staff,
she adds.
Lord says the DoD is also
tracking outbreaks of coronavi-
rus near the facilities of defence
companies.
“We are generating what we
call a heat map. We show the
number of coronavirus positive
tests, as well as state and local
shelter-in-place rules and guide-
lines,” she says. “All of this infor-
mation can help us with predic-
tive solutions and planning when
overlaid with the location of our
industry partners.” ■
flightglobal.com
 Gripen C/D to
fill Swedish
DEFENCE
training gap
Defence P16

PROGRAMME GARRETT REIM LOS ANGELES

USAF taps private

sector to provide
refuelling support

US Air Force
Suppliers indicate interest as service seeks expanded
range for combat aircraft operating over Pacific Ocean Types including KC-135 will be able to cover remote locations

fleet of private in-flight
A refuelling tankers could be
supporting the US Air Force
(USAF) within two years, as the
service seeks to contract around
1,100 sorties and 5,000 flight
hours per year.
The USAF is looking to grow
its tanker fleet to boost the non-
stop range of its fighters and
bombers. In particular, it wants
MANUFACTURING
Fuel leak flaw latest to delay KC-46A’s operational readiness
The US Air Force (USAF) has
upgraded a fuel leak issue with its
Boeing KC-46A Pegasus tanker
first encountered in July 2019 to a
so-called Category 1 deficiency.
Announcing the step on
30 March, the service says: “The
air force and Boeing are working
together to determine the root
cause and implement corrective
actions. The KC-46 programme
office continues to monitor the
entire fleet and is enhancing
acceptance testing of the fuel
system to identify potential leaks
at the factory, where they can be
repaired prior to delivery.
“Boeing is contractually
more refuellers so it can quickly
manoeuvre large numbers of air-
craft across the Pacific Ocean in
case of a war with China.
In an early March industry day
briefing, the USAF said it is short
of fully functional tankers owing to
technical problems with the Boe-
ing 767-based KC-46A, which will
delay the type’s operational availa-
bility until at least 2023. Several
obligated to remedy this
deficiency at no additional cost
to the government,” it adds.
Confirming that “several”
tankers require repair, Boeing
states: “The KC-46 fuel system
is equipped with redundant
protection for fuel containment.
In some cases with this issue,
aircraft maintenance crews are
finding fuel between the primary
and secondary fuel protection
barriers within the system.”
The KC-46A has two other
open Category 1 deficiencies.
Boeing is working to remedy
a boom remote vision system
problem at its own expense,
firms have expressed interest in
making up the gap in capacity.
Omega Air last year bought a
pair of surplus, boom-equipped
McDonnell Douglas KDC-10
tankers from the Netherlands.
And in 2018, Lockheed Martin
partnered with Airbus on a po-
tential offering using the A330-
based multi-role tanker transport.
The air force plans to solicit
while the US government is
funding activities to resolve
a boom connection issue
encountered with light receivers
such as the Fairchild Republic
A-10 ground-attack aircraft.
These have contributed to a
USAF decision to delay the
type’s full entry into service until
at least 2023.
Boeing last December
resolved another Category 1
deficiency via a hardware retrofit,
after multiple cargo-floor restraint
locks malfunctioned and came
unlocked, resulting in a
temporary ban on carrying
cargo or passengers. ■
bids in June.
It wants to declare initial oper-
ational capability with an aircraft
airworthiness certificate process
completed, with tankers and per-
sonnel ready to schedule testing
within one year of a contract
being signed.
Initial priority will be refuel-
ling its Boeing B-1, B-52 and F-15
and Lockheed Martin F-16 fleets,
plus US Navy Boeing F/A-18s.
Private tankers should be
certificated for its top priority
aircraft and ready for missions to-
talling 3,000h per annum within
another year. Full operational
capability for up to 5,000h should
be reached within a further 12
months, adding the ability to sup-
port the Fairchild Republic A-10,
Lockheed C-130, F-22 and F-35.
The USAF plans to use about
80% of this capacity to refuel
aircraft during training; 8% for
test and evaluation flights; 8% to
refuel Foreign Military Sales air-
craft flying across the USA; and
the rest to support aircraft over
the Atlantic and Pacific.
The initiative should free up
air force assets such as the Boeing
KC-10, KC-46A and KC-135 to
support aircraft further afield. ■

PROCUREMENT

Trio to sign $1.5 billion Poseidon deal

Boeing has been awarded a $1.5 billion contract for 18 P-8A
Poseidons, including Foreign Military Sales programme examples
for new customers New Zealand and South Korea. In addition to
providing a further eight maritime patrol aircraft for the US Navy
(USN), the deal covers six to be delivered to the Republic of Korea
Navy from 2023 and four for introduction by the Royal New
Zealand Air Force from 2022. Boeing says the in-service P-8 fleet
operated by the USN, Australia, India and the UK has exceeded
250,000 flying hours.
US Navy

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 15

DEFENCE
MODERNISATION CRAIG HOYLE LONDON
Gripen C/D to fill Swedish training gap
Stockholm plans interim measure for air force’s advanced instruction requirements as it considers long-term options
S weden is poised to begin mod-
ernising its pilot training sys-
tem, with the process from later
this decade to involve the interim
use of Saab Gripen C/Ds during
advanced instruction phases.
Stockholm has employed the
Saab 105 (Sk 60) for both basic
and advanced/tactical training
since 1986, but Colonel Torgny
Falthammar, Gripen programme
head at the nation’s air staff or-
ganisation, says steps will be
taken to replace the aged type.
“We plan to continue using the
Sk 60 for around five years, but
are introducing a propeller
aircraft to take care of the basic
training needs,” he said during
Saab’s annual Gripen seminar
webcast on 26 March. No details
have been disclosed about the in-
tended new model.
PROGRAMME CRAIG HOYLE LONDON
New Saab fighter passes 300h milestone in tests
S aab’s Gripen E test fleet re-
cently passed the combined
300 flight hour milestone, the
company says.
“We’re now shifting focus to
more testing of tactical systems
and the sensors,” says Eddy de la
Motte, head of the company’s
Gripen E/F business unit. The
aircraft’s Leonardo-supplied
radar and infrared search and
track equipment and Saab-
developed electronic warfare
suite are “performing better than
expected”, he adds.
A total of six flight-test aircraft
are now supporting the
in association with:
16 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
Nation is on course to replace remaining Sk 60 jets within five years
“At the same time [around
2025], we are looking at a gap
filler solution, where the Sk 60
as an advanced tactical trainer
will be changed into using the
[Gripen] Charlie/Delta version,”
Falthammar says.
This stop-gap measure will be
taken as the Swedish air force
progressively introduces a training concept.”
programme, including lead
production examples handed
over to the Swedish and
Brazilian air forces late last year.
These are now being used dur-
ing a joint verification and
validation campaign also involv-
ing Stockholm’s FMV defence
materiel administration.
“In the coming year we are
going to be delivering the second
and third [of 60] aircraft to Swe-
den,” de la Motte says.
The programme’s first export
aircraft will be flown to Brazil
later this year, for use at a nation-
al Gripen flight-test centre.
Download the 2020
Wo r l d A i r Fo r c e s R e p o r t
w w w. f l i g h t g l o b a l . c o m / w a f
He adds: “Introducing a new
advanced trainer, where the
[Boeing/Saab] T-7 may be one
contender – it’s too early for us.
There are a number of years be-
fore we will need to do that eval-
uation and make that decision.”
Dawid Lech/Shutterstock
Cirium fleets data shows that
Sweden still has 46 Saab 105s in
active use, aged between 51 and
53 years.
Meanwhile, a new Gripen
training academy began operat-
60-strong fleet of new generation ing at Satenas air base in Febru-
Gripen Es to its operational ary, under a joint initiative in-
squadrons from 2023. volving the armed forces, Saab
“For the long term, we are and Sweden’s FMV defence ma-
looking at introducing a new teriel administration. The facility
advanced trainer,” Falthammar will this year provide instruction
says. “But right now we are for Swedish pilots, along with
focusing on taking the first steps others from international opera-
towards introducing a new tors the Czech Republic and Hun-
gary and future user Brazil. ■
Separately, Saab has cut metal
on the first two-seat Gripen F
destined for the Brazilian air
Gripen Es on order for operation-
al delivery from 2021, with eight
two-seat Fs to be introduced
force, with the component to from 2023. ■
form part of the jet’s air duct sec- Additional reporting by Greg
tion. Brazil has 28 single-seat Waldron in Singapore
A total of six aircraft are
supporting campaign
Saab
flightglobal.com
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BUSINESS AVIATION

RESULTS KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Executive jet sales surge for Embraer

Airframer saw order backlog, output and revenue climb last year, but warns of coronavirus impact on trading in 2020
ales at Embraer Executive Jets
S in 2019 were the strongest for
five years, and all the aircraft it
produced in the 12 months were
delivered to customers, leaving
“zero white tails” in the firm’s
inventory.
However, the 2020 outlook for
the unit is unclear, as a result of
the impact of the coronavirus crisis
on the business aviation market.
Embraer chief financial officer
Antonio Carlos Garcia, speaking
on a 26 March full-year earnings
call, described 2019 as “a very
good year for the executive jets
business”, with total deliveries of
109 aircraft: 62 light jets and 47
medium- and large-cabin types.
In 2018, Embraer handed over 64

light-category jets and 27 midsize
and large aircraft.
Shipments were at the upper
end of Embraer’s guidance for the
year. In addition, sales activity
was the “highest” since 2014,
and the company saw increased
margins on the aircraft it sold.
REVENUE INCREASE
“It’s a really amazing achieve-
ment,” says Garcia, with the
division contributing more than
APPROVAL
Upgraded Phenom 300E hits triple certification milestone
Embraer has received
certification from Brazilian,
European and US regulators for
the latest version of the Phenom
300E, and is preparing to deliver
the first example early in the
second quarter.
The upgraded aircraft is the
third iteration of the Phenom 300
series, which Embraer introduced
in 2009, and which it describes
as the “most delivered light
business jet of the past decade”.
The original Phenom
300E – with the E standing for
“enhanced” – entered service
in 2018.
This latest model features
improvements to the Garmin
First deliveries of Praetor 600 helped deliver strong performance in medium- and large-cabin sector
one-quarter of Embraer’s 2019
revenues of $5.5 billion, a year-
on-year increase of about 4%.
Aircraft deliveries are contin-
uing and the airframer secured a
number of sales in the first
quarter. However, the outlook
for the remainder of 2020 is
unclear, owing to what Garcia
calls “the level of uncertainty
G3000-based Prodigy Touch
flightdeck, including predictive
windshear, emergency descent
mode and a runway overrun
awareness and alerting system.
This feature acts as an additional
pilot, says Embraer “and warns
if the aircraft’s approach is
too steep or too fast, thereby
increasing situational awareness”.
Aircraft performance in the
upgraded Phenom has also
been boosted, with the Pratt
& Whitney Canada PW535E1-
powered twin delivering a
high-speed cruise of 464kt
(858km/h) – 11kt more than
the current 300E – and a range
with five occupants of 2,010nm
surrounding the spread of
Covid-19”.
He says: “Governments have
already imposed measures like
quarantine, flight and travel
restrictions and the restriction
of movement between countries,
all of which we expect to direct
both the supply chain and
demand side of our business.”
(3,720km), 38nm longer than
its predecessor. The enhanced
aircraft can also reach a top
speed of Mach 0.80, says
Embraer, compared with its
earlier model’s M0.78.
In the cabin, the airframer has
introduced the option of the
premium Bossa Nova Edition
interior that made its debut in 2018
on the midsize-category Praetor
500 and 600. It has also added
the Gogo Avance L5 in-flight
connectivity system and a number
of noise-reduction measures.
Cirium fleets data records
deliveries of 546 Phenom 300s
to date, including a total of 97
Phenom 300Es. ■
Embraer
Embraer is holding off on pro-
viding guidance for 2020, Garcia
says, until the full ramifications
of the crisis become clear.
While it is continuing to
manufacture business jets across
its factories in Brazil and Mel-
bourne, Florida, the company
says it is “monitoring the situa-
tion at all times”.
Embraer chief executive
Francisco Gomes Neto says the
Sao Jose dos Campos-headquar-
tered firm “has already tasted dif-
ferent crises in the past, and we
are confident that this time won’t
be different.
“Together with all our employ-
ees, customers and partners, we
will come out of this virus out-
break even stronger.”
For the year ended 31 Decem-
ber, Embraer delivered a com-
bined 62 Phenom 100EVs and
300Es, plus a total of 47 Legacy
450s, 500s, 650s, and Praetor
500s and 600s – the first ship-
ments of the new jets.
Revenues for the company’s
executive jets unit climbed in
2019 from $1.1 billion to $1.4
billion, while the value of the
backlog rose by $600 million to
$1.4 billion. ■

18 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com

 Pandemic stymies
BUSINESS AVIATION
February business
Data View P20

OUTLOOK KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Gama Aviation braces for impact of coronavirus

ircraft services provider
A Gama Aviation says it is
“strongly focused” on maintain-
ing business continuity through
the coronavirus crisis, but the
uncertain trading environment
triggered by the pandemic is
expected to “severely impact” its
performance in 2020.
The company has adopted a
number of measures to maintain
business continuity. They in-
clude implementing working-
from-home policies and reducing
the number of employees
allowed on its sites “to the mini-
mum necessary, in line with
government guidance”.

The Farnborough, UK-head-
quartered company says its busi-
ness units – which include busi-
ness, commercial and military
aircraft MRO, air ambulance
provision and business aviation
charter and management – re-
main operational and the pan-
demic’s impact on revenues has
so far been “limited”.
However, this position will not
last. “With an expected escala-
tion in Covid-19 cases within the
group, an increasing focus on
containment by national govern-
ments, and the increased threat of
airport closures, demand for ser-
vices is now reducing at a signifi-
cant rate,” says Gama.
“All our divisions remain
operational and are delivering
services in support of our clients’
missions, particularly for those
delivering critical services such
as [air ambulance provision] to
NHS Scotland, the UK Ministry
of Defence and other government
agencies,” says Gama.
The company says it has other
long-standing contracts “which
contribute recurring revenues”.
Gama is also taking “proactive
and decisive measures” to
preserve cash. They include:
placing annual pay increases on
hold; halting recruitment except
for critical hires to meet contract
commitments; reducing or
Focus is on critical services such as air ambulances for NHS Scotland
postponing non-essential ex-
penditure; increasing the em-
phasis on credit control; and
pursuing government-sponsored
assistance measures.
“These interventions are being
reviewed daily and will be aug-
mented as required,” says Gama.
Despite these cost-cutting
measures, the firm expects the
coronavirus crisis to hit its trading
performance in 2020. As a result
of “the fast-evolving and unpre-
dictable nature of this pandemic”
it says it will not be possible to
Gama Aviation
forecast the potential impact on its
business and is dropping financial
guidance for the year.
Chief executive Marwan Khalek
describes the challenge from the
pandemic as “significant”.
“Our resilient and robust busi-
ness model, the resolve of our
people and the loyalty and sup-
port of our clients and sharehold-
ers will all be severely tested as
we navigate our way through this
unprecedented challenge. I am
confident that, together, we can
prevail and emerge stronger.” ■

DEVELOPMENT KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Seastar successor makes maiden sortie

Relaunched and modernised amphibian takes flight, seven years after programme’s acquisition by Chinese owners
ornier Seawings flew its new- ment, although the Dornier fami-
D generation Seastar amphi-
bian for the first time on 28
ly still retains a minority stake.
A number of improvements
March from its base in Oberp- have been made in the CD2. They
faffenhofen, Germany. include a redesigned and upgrad-
The twin-engined turboprop ed interior, a Honeywell Primus
(serial number 1003) made a Epic 2.0 avionics suite, a stern
31min sortie, with chief test pilot hydro-thruster for improved
Dornier Seawings

Wolfram Cornelius noting “its water manoeuvring, new corro-

nice handling qualities”.
He says: “All systems func-
tioned correctly. The advanced
avionics system reflects the state
of the art in cockpit design and is
a good baseline for future
development.”
The debut sortie of the Seastar
CD2 prototype came nine days
after Dornier secured approvals
from the European Union Avia-
tion Safety Agency and German
regulator LBA to launch the
Improvements include new Honeywell Primus Epic 2.0 avionics
flight-test campaign. The air-
framer has not disclosed a time-
table for certification and service
entry of the 12-seat aircraft.
The Pratt & Whitney Canada
PT6A-135A-powered CD2 was
launched in February 2016,
around 25 years after Dornier
shut down the original
sion-resistant composite struc-
ture and landing-gear, a hydrau-
lic and steerable nose gear, and
five-bladed composite propellers
programme because of financial designed by MT-Propeller.
problems. Despite securing US The Seastar CD2 has a maxi-
and European certification for mum take-off weight of 5,100kg
the Seastar in 1991, no examples (11,200lb), a cruise speed of
were delivered. 180kt (330km/h) and a range of
The programme was acquired 900nm (1,670km). It will be
in 2013 by Chinese companies offered in configurations includ-
Wuxi Communications Industry ing cargo, passenger, special
and Wuxi Industrial Develop- missions and VIP transport. ■

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 19

DATA VIEW

Pandemic stymies
February business
Net orders went into reverse for the first time since May 2019 as coronavirus effect took hold.
Deliveries stayed positive, but dented demand was beginning to show in falling fleet figures
GRAHAM DUNN & ANTOINE FAFARD
LONDON

hile it had yet to be formally

W categorised as a global pan-

demic at the time, the corona-
virus outbreak’s early business
effects were already clearly visible in Febru-
ary, when net commercial aircraft orders en-
tered negative territory for the first time since
May 2019.
Cirium fleets data shows that only ATR and
Boeing announced new business during the
month, while Airbus recorded no fresh sales.
In all, 16 airliners were ordered, offset by can-
cellations for 26, resulting in a net deficit of
10 units.
Ten Boeing 787s were ordered by as-yet un-
announced customers, while 737 Max cancel-
lations included 11 removed from Air Cana-

da’s commitment – leaving the flag carrier
with 26 examples on order. Air Lease convert-
ed orders for nine 737 Max aircraft to a trio of
Dreamliners, while Oman Air switched 10
and four of the same types, respectively.
Boeing’s only other widebody success
involved a single 767-300 Freighter for FedEx
Express.
ATR detailed its new business during the
Singapore air show, which was severely
affected by restrictions imposed as a result of
the rapidly-spreading disease. Regional carri-
er PNG Air ordered three ATR 42-600s in a
new short take-off and landing (STOL)
version, while Singapore-based lessor Ava-
tion converted purchase rights into firm
orders for two ATR 72-600s.
PNG Air will be a launch customer for the
STOL development, which is capable of tak-
ing off from and landing on 800m (2,620ft)-
long runways, with 40 passengers on board.
Cirium shows that the Papua New Guinea
carrier currently operates seven ATR 72-600s
and three De Havilland Canada Dash 8-100s.
Avation will place its examples with Bang-
ladeshi airline US-Bangla, boosting the carri-
er’s fleet of the type to eight. The lessor has
New orders, February 2020
PNG Air ATR 42-600
Avation ATR 72-600
FedEx Express 767-300F
Note: Information for known customers Source: Cirium fleets data
also acquired an additional two ATR 72-600
purchase rights.
Delivery totals were healthier during the
decade’s second month, however, with a com-
bined 81 aircraft handed over to customers.
Airbus accounted for 55 of this total, with 44
single-aisles and 11 widebodies transferred.
Delta Air Lines took in a pair of A321s, a
single A220 and one A330neo. The US car-
rier is now the leading operator of the former
Bombardier CSeries, with 31 in service, plus
another 64 on order. Swiss, which is the
leading European user, with 29 A220s in its
fleet, also took its first re-engined A320neo
during the month.
Philippe Masclet/Airbus
Aeroflot received its first A350-900
during decade’s second month
Sweden’s SAS received three A320neos,
plus a single A350, boosting its total fleet to
3
more than 150. The carrier currently has
2
more than 40 A320neo-family aircraft still
1
on order.
EgyptAir received four A320neos: the first
examples shipped to the carrier, which has 11
more on order. Aeroflot, meanwhile,
welcomed its first A350-900.
Boeing delivered 16 commercial aircraft,
including a dozen 787s to customers includ-
ing Air France-KLM, El Al, Turkish Airlines
and Vistara, plus three 767-300Fs to FedEx
and UPS, plus a 777F for DHL.
The total commercial order backlog stood
at 14,862 units at the end of February: roughly
the same as a year earlier.
But the early effects of the coronavirus on
airline demand was highlighted by the global
in-service commercial fleet contracting by
some 500 units since the end of January, to
stand at just over 29,200 aircraft. ■

20 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com

 ORDERS & DELIVERIES

Commercial monthly net orders, February 2019-2020 Commercial in-service fleet

by region
800
700
24% 7%
600
5%
4%
500 29,236
400 Total
300 29% 31%
200
100
0
Source: Cirium fleets data
-100
-200 Asia-Pacific North America Europe
Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 8,934 8,698 6,951

Source: Cirium fleets data Latin America Middle East Africa

Narrowbody Regional Turboprop Widebody 1,964 1,423 1,266

Commercial monthly deliveries, February 2019-2020 Commercial aircraft order backlog

by manufacturer
250
2%
4%
200 37% 2%
4%
150
14,862
Total

100
51%
50
Source: Cirium fleets data

0 Airbus Boeing Comac

Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 7,643 5,474 633

Source: Cirium fleets data

Embraer ATR Other
Narrowbody Regional Turboprop Widebody 336 228 548

In focus: Fleet development for leading four countries

The USA, China, Canada and Russia are the
Total fleet and stored fleet leading four countries in terms of numbers
Total fleet Stored fleet % of aircraft in commercial use, with the USA
16,000 40 having more than 8,500 units alone.
14,000 35 China has seen its fleet size increase by
more than 2,200 aircraft since 2011, to
12,000 30
reach a total of nearly 4,000 as at the end
10,000 25
of February.
8,000 20 However, the coronavirus pandemic
6,000 15 meant that China’s storage ratio stood at
4,000 10
32%, with almost 415 aircraft parked: more
than double the total at the same point a
2,000 5
year earlier.
0 0
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 By contrast, US operators had not yet
Source: Cirium fleets data been affected by that time, with a parked
ratio of just 11%: five points lower than at
Total fleet for Total fleet for Stored fleet for USA Stored fleet for Canada
USA China the start of our review period. Canada’s
Total fleet for Total fleet for stored rate stood at 20%, but Russia’s was
Stored fleet for China Stored fleet for Russia
Canada Russia just 1%. ■

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 21

 TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Special report

Shutterstock
With automation increasing in modern airliners, technology can send unfamiliar signals if something unexpected happens, as tragically
demonstrated by two crashes involving the 737 Max (below right); coronavirus may result in many pilots leaving the industry (below left)

SHOCK AND
REBOUND
As aviation reels from a raft of massive technical and market CONTENTS
confidence disruptions, one thing is clear: assumptions on 24 Adverse reaction Controlling
complex aircraft in unfamiliar situations
everything from aircraft design and manufacturing to the 28 Back down to Earth Thousands
recruitment market for pilots are set to change radically of airline pilots face an uncertain future
Shutterstock

Shutterstock

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 23

 TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Special report
Two fatal crashes of 737 Max jets
have forced Boeing to rethink its
design and manufacturing processes
Shutterstock
Adverse reaction
Recent accidents involving pilots losing control have highlighted the increasing challenges
they face in coping with unexpected events when flying today’s ever-more complex aircraft
DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDON
ircraft manufacturers’ assump-
A tions about how pilots will react
to the unexpected, particularly
technical faults or anomalies, are
in the safety spotlight in the aftermath of a
series of incidents including two fatal Boeing
737 Max crashes. This reflects a growing
recognition of just how much flightdeck
design, aircraft systems and flight manage-
ment tools have changed over the past three
decades. But despite these changes, manu-
facturers have continued to assume that
pilots would react to anomalies in exactly
the same way as they did in the 1970s to
1980s – and just as quickly.
Any study intending to reassess the perfor-
mance of today’s pilots in today’s flightdecks
must inevitably examine changes not just to
aircraft design, but also to changes in pilot
education, sourcing, selection and training
24 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
over the same period (see P27).
The European Cockpit Association says
that commercial training schools are not pro-
ducing the required standards: “Pilot training
traditionally concentrates on training for a li-
cence. What has become clear in recent years,
though, is that pilots need an additional set of
competencies for a successful career. The
‘training for a licence’ philosophy has led to a
situation where the market was flooded with
licence-holders who were not up to the airline
standards. With this as a starting point, we
looked at how a new toolbox for training can
help to address this issue: training which en-
compasses everything from the initial basic
flying skills to the management competencies
needed in an airline environment.”
It is not only Europe that is worried. US air-
lines suffered a fatal accident last year in
which the pilots did not react as expected. On
23 February 2019, an Atlas Air Boeing 767
freighter, operating for Amazon Prime, went
out of control and crashed in a steep dive. The
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
is still investigating this event, but it also rais-
es questions about what US carriers should be
able to assume about their crews’ competen-
cies today.
REAPPRAISAL REQUIRED
A US congressional committee reported in
March that Boeing had made over-optimistic
assumptions about pilot responses when de-
signing the 737 Max series. The committee
was studying the failure of pilots in two Max
accidents to control the aircraft’s stabiliser
trim behaviour when a faulty angle of attack
(AoA) sensor wrongly triggered the ma-
chine’s Maneuvering Characteristics Aug-
mentation System. The committee stated
that Boeing had made over-optimistic as-
sumptions about the speed and accuracy of
pilot fault recognition and reaction in a case
like this, because the latest generation of air-
flightglobal.com

craft are so much more technically complex
than their predecessors.
This conclusion by the congressional com-
mittee mirrors findings and recommendations
in the Indonesian final report into the Lion
Air 737 Max crash of October 2018 concern-
ing pilot reaction assumptions. Boeing’s new
chief executive, David Calhoun, has acknowl-
edged this concern. He says Boeing is work-
ing to update its corporate culture, explain-
ing: “It will be built around the level of light
March 2016 loss at Rostov-on-Don of this FlyDubai 737-800 was linked to somatogravic illusion at night during a go-around attempt
flightglobal.com
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
we shed on safety processes. It will be built on
the engineering disciplines and what we do
for pilots around the world, not just pilots in
the USA.”
Right now, in the ongoing Atlas Air investi-
gation, the NTSB is testing evidence that sug-
gests pilot disorientation by somatogravic il-
lusion might be pivotal in what happened.
During a normal descent towards its destina-
tion airport the aircraft’s power suddenly in-
creased to maximum, then it dived steeply
and at high speed into the surface.
A common example of somatogravic illu-
sion – which is induced by acceleration – is
the feeling that airline passengers get when
their aircraft begins to accelerate along the
runway for take-off; they perceive the cabin to
be tilted nose upward, but a glance out of the
side window shows the aircraft is level, the
nose wheel still on the ground.
External visual input, if available, is the
dominant human sensory input, and it will
correct the illusions caused by the reaction of
the body’s inner-ear balance organs to a linear
acceleration.
On the day of the accident, the Atlas Air
767 freighter was inbound to Houston Inter-
continental airport from Miami and the flight
phase in which things began to go wrong was
a routine descent. The crew were receiving
vectors to avoid weather while positioning for
an approach to runway 26L. As the aircraft
was descending, in cloud, through about
10,000ft, cleared to 3,000ft, the crew were fly-
ing a vector heading of 270°, and were told to
expect a turn north onto a base leg to intercept
the westbound final approach.
A pilot voice called for “flaps 1”, the air-
craft levelled briefly at 6,200ft, climbed very
slightly, and its airspeed stabilised at 230kt
(426km/h). But shortly after that, the engine
Instrument competence
power increased to maximum and the aircraft
pitched about 4° nose up.
It is at this point that somatogravic illusion
– if that is indeed what occurred – appears to
have kicked in powerfully with the pilots.
They had no external visual horizon because
the aircraft was in cloud.
According to the NTSB, almost immedi-
ately the aircraft began a dramatic pitch down
to -49°, driven by elevator deflection. The air-
speed ultimately increased to 430kt, and al-
though the pitch-down angle was eventually
reduced to -20°, impact was inevitable.
“It will be built on the
engineering disciplines and
what we do for pilots around
the world”
David Calhoun
Chief executive, Boeing
The factor the NTSB is examining now is
what triggered the sudden – apparently un-
warranted – massive power increase. The
cockpit voice recorder has captured a sound
that may indicate the activation of the go-
around button on the power levers. But nei-
ther of the pilots mentioned a need for go-
around power nor an intention to select it.
About 10s after the power increase, cau-
tion alarms began to sound. The inquiry says
the control column remained forward for
10s. According to FlightGlobal.com: “The
aircraft transitioned from a shallow climb to
a steep descent. Five seconds after the alarm
commenced, one of the pilots exclaimed:
‘Whoa,’ and shortly afterwards, in an elevat-
ed voice: ‘Where’s my speed, my speed?’ ❯❯
AirTeamImages
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 25
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Special report
❯❯ Three seconds later, a voice loudly de-
clared: ‘We’re stalling.’”
There appears to have been a degree of
crew confusion here that matches the total
lack of situational awareness on the flightdeck
of Air France’s notorious Flight 447 in 2009
when, after a momentary interruption to the
accuracy of the indicated airspeed, a perfectly
serviceable Airbus A330 descended, at night,
into the Atlantic ocean in a high-AoA stalled
condition, with the crew voicing the belief
that it was over-speeding in a dive.
DEADLY CONFUSION
The 767 flight data recorder gives the lie to the
pilot’s stalling perception, because the AoA at
that moment was safely below the stalling
level, it shows.
During these rather panicky pilot remarks
the thrust levers were brought to idle for about
2s, then were advanced again to their high
power setting. During the transition from nose
slightly up to nose steeply down, there were
negative g-forces for nearly 11s.
The reason somatogravic illusion is on the
NTSB investigation menu in this event is that,
every time a big engine power increase takes
place in flight, forward acceleration is the re-
sult, possibly combined with a pitch-up mo-
ment from the underslung engines. If this
happens at night or in cloud with no external
visual horizon, there is a risk that somato-
gravic illusion will affect the pilots. “For this
reason,” observes the NTSB in a remarkable
understatement, “it is important that pilots
develop an effective instrument scan.”
Airlines in most nations are now required
to carry out at least a modicum of upset recov-
ery training (UPRT) in flight simulators. Un-
fortunately simulators are not good at repro-
ducing sustained acceleration forces, so
realism is lacking. The European Union Avia-
tion Safety Agency (EASA), aware of both the
essential part simulators play in pilot training
and of their limitations, is working with simu-
lator manufacturers to upgrade their perfor-
Atlas Air suffered fatal loss of a 767 freighter operating for Amazon Prime in February 2019
26 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
mance fidelity at the edges of the flight enve-
lope to improve UPRT. The manufacturers
have been struggling with EASA deadlines for
meeting the performance targets and the effort
is ongoing.
What seems to be needed is a way of incul-
cating in pilots, despite the limitations of
UPRT in simulators, an acute awareness that
acceleration in flight brings with it the risk of
disorientation, and therefore of emphasising
the need to ignore all other sensory inputs ex-
cept the visual picture provided by the flight
instruments. This “effective instrument scan”
would enable the pilot to control the aircraft
attitude and power accordingly.
Recent accidents demonstrate that aware-
ness of this risk – too often – is missing among
African, Asian and now – it appears – some
US pilots.
There is no shortage of
agonising about how to
ensure pilots react well to
unexpected demands
Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) has, since
the late 1990s, been the biggest killer accident
category for airlines. LOC-I linked to somato-
gravic illusion has frequently occurred, two of
the most dramatic recent examples being the
March 2016 FlyDubai 737-800 crash at Ros-
tov-on-Don, Russia, and the August 2000 Gulf
Air A320 crash at Bahrain International air-
port. Both occurred at night; both involved a
go-around.
The FlyDubai pilot reaction to somato-
gravic illusion during a night go-around was
a dramatic push-forward into a dive, like
Atlas Air, and the aircraft smashed steeply
into the runway.
The Gulf Air manoeuvre was an abandoned
night visual approach from which the captain
Shutterstock
elected to climb and turn left into a 3,000ft
downwind leg to make a second approach. In
the latter case, the changes in attitude and
power were less dramatic, but as the captain
advanced the power and began the climbing
turn to the left over the night sea, he would
have lost sight of the airfield and city lights,
and should have transitioned fully to flight in-
struments. It seems he did not. The aircraft
made a shallow spiral into the dark water.
Somatogravic illusion makes highly disci-
plined instrument flying essential, but more
difficult because of the need to reject the bal-
ance organs’ misleading input. A clear natural
horizon in daylight completely overcomes
those misleading feelings, and although the
flight instrument panel – especially in mod-
ern flightdecks – provides an intuitive visual
display, it is still not as compelling as the real
thing. And there is a long list of LOC-I acci-
dents in the past two decades that involved
more subtle sensory inputs resulting in pilot
disorientation leading to disaster.
In the past two months, Flight International
has conducted an informal poll of profession-
al airline pilots with one of the US majors to
find out what issues they believe are thrown
into relief by recent fatal accidents, including
the Atlas Air one and the two Max crashes.
There was a fair weight of opinion that the
Atlas Air crew must have been poorly paired
in terms of experience, because the pilot mon-
itoring – the captain – should have had suffi-
cient time to pick up on what the pilot flying
– the co-pilot – was doing, and to correct it.
Apart from that, there is a general uneasiness
with the perception that recurrent training
does not attempt to compensate for the insidi-
ous effect on pilot cognitive and manual skills
of operating with high levels of automation
almost all the time.
PRACTICE VITAL
In the USA the Air Carrier Safety and Pilot
Training Aviation Rulemaking Committee rec-
ommends that airlines, in their flight manuals,
indicate when and where, on revenue flights,
manual flying may be carried out by pilots to
help maintain their handling skills. In Europe,
however, with its denser airspace and stricter
rules on where visual flight rules flying may be
carried out, manual “flying” practice is basical-
ly only available in simulators or base training.
There is no shortage of agonising – in the
training industry and the airlines – about
how to ensure pilots react well to unexpect-
ed demands. The only certainty is that they
are not prepared to throw money at the
problem. It looks, therefore, as if aircraft
manufacturers are going to have to down-
grade their expectations of pilot reactions in
the meantime, and ultimately make the task
of managing their aircraft – faults and all –
more intuitive. ■
flightglobal.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Sourcing changes mean airframers must update pilot performance assumptions
Up until the beginning of the
1980s, airlines recruited a high
proportion of their pilots
pre-trained from the military. A
relatively small proportion were
trained commercially.
Today, the vast majority of air-
line pilots are graduates of com-
mercial training organisations.
The effects of this radical change
in pilot training provision have not
been studied as such. The industry
needs to analyse what it is losing as
the military alumni retire, and what
the differences are of operating
with an entirely commercially
trained pilot workforce, because
they are not identical.
Until about 20 years ago, the
commercially trained and military
trained groups had some basic
training experiences in common;
they both did their early flying in
simple aircraft with primitive flight
and navigation instruments. Since
then, however, the airline sector
has grown massively and the mili-
tary has shrunk, both in relative
and in absolute terms. Although
there are still military trained pilots
in the airlines, their numbers and
influence are reducing rapidly.
This change matters, because
civil airliners have been designed
by their manufacturers according
to assumptions about pilot perfor-
mance that were set in the 1950s
and 1960s. In fact, an industry-
wide debate about the issue of
pilot performance expectations
has been reignited recently by the
final report on the Lion Air Boeing
737 Max crash near Jakarta,
Indonesia in October 2018.
To understand the differences,
consider that military pilots, almost
from the beginning of their train-
ing, are exposed to far more flying
Military pilots can apply mission-honed skills to difficult situations
flightglobal.com
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
The vast majority of today’s airline flightcrews are graduates from approved training organisations
at the edges of – and even outside
– the flight envelope. They are
taught aerobatic flying to a com-
petent level during basic training.
Even before being selected for
pilot training, they will have been
chosen for having the robustness
of personality required of a military
officer in the theatre of war.
In advanced flying training, the
military pilots practise missions.
That is, they are given an opera-
tional task to perform in addition
to “aviating and navigating”, while
also conducting each flight so as
to survive hostile action. Thus, suc-
cessful military pilots have to dem-
onstrate they have mental and
physical capacity to spare above
and beyond meeting the demands
of navigating an aircraft safely from
A to B.
EVOLVING INDUSTRY
Change, in the meantime, has not
stopped. In anticipation of a confi-
dently forecast long-term pilot
supply shortage, substantial num-
bers of new approved training
US Air Force
Instrument competence
organisations such as Skyborne Air
Academy, based at Gloucester air-
port in the UK, are equipped and
ready to go. They are hoping that
the disastrous effect of the corona-
virus pandemic on airline opera-
tions will not stop aspiring pilots
from training to be ready when
business gets airborne again.
The most senior commercially
trained pilots in airlines today will
have begun their training in simple
aircraft equipped with vacuum-
driven artificial horizons and direc-
tional gyros. They learned about
gyroscopic precession, and devel-
oped a scepticism about what
they saw on their instrument pan-
el. That developed in them an in-
stinct for checking one set of
readings against an alternative
source to see if it made sense –
like checking the artificial horizon
against the turn-and-slip indicator
and the compass. Those were also
the days of beacon-to-beacon
navigation using raw data. No
navigation display, no magenta
lines, but also limited exposure to
the demands of area navigation.
The more junior arrivals on the
line today are deft with the flight
management system, adept at
handling the control and display
unit. They are at home with
computers of all kinds, and have
been drilled in accurate area navi-
gation for hours in fixed-base pro-
cedure trainers and flight
simulation training devices during
their training.
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 27
Skyborne Air Academy
An increasing proportion of the
total have been trained specifically
as airline co-pilots, almost from
their first solo onward. And most
will indeed be good co-pilots from
the start, providing that nothing
unexpected happens. And usually,
nothing does.
The problem is that if they are
forced by system failure to go
back to basics, they have had so
little time with raw navigation and
flying that they might be over-
loaded by the demands because
their self-confidence in that arena
will be low.
For that reason, some airlines
do far more than the regulatory
minimum requirements in their
recurrent training to keep their
pilots in touch with their aircraft.
And some approved training
organisations take the same
approach. But not all of them do.
Therefore, airlines are increas-
ingly flying into a future in which,
on the rare occasions when some-
thing unexpected happens in
flight, they cannot be certain how
their crews will cope.
For this reason, manufacturers
are under pressure now to review
very carefully the pilot perfor-
mance presumptions they have
relied on for about 60 years when
they design their aircraft and
systems. As a result of two fatal
737 Max accidents, Boeing chief
executive David Calhoun has said
the company is committed to
doing this. ■
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Special report
Back down
to Earth
Almost 20 years ago, the aftermath of 9/11 saw a raft of
lay-offs among flightcrew as the level of demand for flying
collapsed. Now, amid an even bigger crisis for aviation,
we assess the likely impact on cockpit careers
MURDO MORRISON LONDON
ind the clock back to a different
W era – the first two months of
2020 – and the biggest pilot
problem the industry had was
finding enough of them. Seattle’s 737 Max
problems aside, Airbus and Boeing began the
year sitting on huge order backlogs as the
worldwide appetite for aircraft – and pilots to
fly them – threatened to outstrip the indus-
try’s capacity to build them.
At the 2019 Paris air show, then-Boeing
chief executive Dennis Muilenburg warned
that a growing shortage of flightcrew was “one
of the biggest challenges” facing the airline
sector. A forecast from the manufacturer pre-
dicted that 800,000 pilots would be needed
over the next 20 years to meet demand – the
equivalent of 900 newly qualified first officers
entering cockpits every week.
The 2001 terrorist
attacks on USA led to
a series of Chapter 11
bankruptcies
28 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
Then, in March, everything changed. The
coronavirus crisis – which until then had af-
fected mostly services to China and some
Asian countries – slammed on the global
economy’s brakes. Mass flight cancellations,
followed by lockdowns of populations, led to
many airlines slashing or suspending all but
cargo operations and repatriation flights.
At the time of writing, internal flights in the
world’s largest market, the USA, were contin-
uing, but with no guarantees that restrictions
would not be introduced.
Hundreds of thousands of pilots and other
airline staff have been laid off, furloughed, or
forced to take swingeing pay cuts. Virtually
every commercial pilot in the world faces an
uncertain future. From an industry desper-
ately short of aviators, the situation has re-
versed in a matter of weeks, with revenue dry-
ing up and airlines looking to preserve cash
and reduce fixed costs – including the
Shutterstock
relatively high salaries for those occupying
the front seats.
The situation differs from carrier to carrier,
country to country, and is changing daily.
But, among the moves, Singapore Airlines
asked pilots to take unpaid leave for up to
seven days each month from 1 April “until
the business recovers”, while British Airways
has agreed with the union representing most
of its roughly 4,500 flightcrew that they will
take a 50% cut in pay for April and May.
Qantas, like many airlines, has urged pilots
and other employees to take as much unpaid
or paid leave as they can.
STATE INTERVENTION
Many governments have stepped in with a
variety of packages to support an aviation sec-
tor threatened with total collapse. These range
from the UK’s commitment to pay 80% of the
wages of furloughed workers to the $2 trillion
economic aid bill signed by US President
Donald Trump on 27 March, which includes
$58 billion of direct aid to the air transport
sector. Italy has renationalised ailing flag-car-
rier Alitalia as an emergency measure permit-
ted under EU rules.
On 24 March, IATA chief executive
Alexandre de Juniac praised the actions of
flightglobal.com

governments that had stepped in to prevent a
“liquidity crisis”, singling out Australia,
Brazil, China, Colombia, Denmark, Finland,
Hong Kong, New Zealand, Qatar, Singapore
and Sweden. He warned that failure else-
where to support the sector would lead to an
“en masse” collapse of airlines that would
make it impossible to kick-start the world
economy once the crisis was over.
In the USA, passenger airlines and related
businesses will receive $25 billion and cargo
airlines $4 billion. The bill also provides for
payroll support amounting to $29 billion.
Further funding is being made available to
airports. In return for the aid, airlines are
banned from furloughing staff to 31 August
and must make no share buybacks. Airline
chiefs have promised not to lay off pilots and
other employees, so long as financial help
flows quickly.
While the UK, at the time of writing, had no
specific plans to support the aviation sector,
its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, intro-
duced on 20 March, offers to pay four-fifths of
salaries, up to £2,500 ($3,100) per month, for
every worker who “remains employed but is
not provided with work”. The aim, says the
government, is to “ensure that employers who
cannot afford to pay staff wages do not make
flightglobal.com
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Thousands of flightcrew
and other airline staff have
already been laid off
Shutterstock
redundancies”. Companies can, if they wish,
top up the remaining 20%.
While £2,500 a month may not be not far
off what a member of cabin crew or ground
staff could expect to earn, it will leave most
pilots facing a “big gap”, according to an
employment law specialist at the firm of
solicitors Bird & Bird, who did not want to be
named. However, it could mean pilots are
able to retain their jobs during the height of
the crisis. “Without this, a lot of airlines
would have had to make widespread redun-
dancies,” says the lawyer.
CLARITY NEEDED
The British Airline Pilots Association also
warns that there are “serious technical issues”
with the scheme, including possible delays
with its implementation. “Many pilots who
have borne the impact of Covid-19 are already
grounded and face cuts in pay or redundancy
as the airlines look at how to weather the
storm,” it said on 26 March. The union also
wants clarity over the term furloughed, a
familiar practice in the USA, but with “no
such concept in UK employment law”.
While debate continues on whether some
of these national schemes can shore up job
retention in the short term, there is still a huge
Job security
concern about the longer-term impact on the
financial health of airlines after the virus
restrictions are lifted. Even under the best-
case scenarios, experts are predicting a global
downturn as trade and international travel
slowly return to 2019 levels, and states face
paying off huge debts incurred from support-
ing their economies through the crisis.
Over the next 20 years, demand for pilots
may meet the expectations of forecasts by
Boeing and others, particularly if recovery fol-
lows the V shape favoured by optimistic
economists and analysts. Looking back
almost 50 years to the oil crisis of the early
1970s, demand for global aviation, and for
commercial pilots, has followed a long up-
ward curve, punctuated by sometimes severe
downturns roughly every eight to 10 years,
with smaller blips in between.
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
On top of the general economic cycles, there
has been a succession of external events that
have, in turn, temporarily stalled growth,
often hitting one region in particular. The
only common thread linking the first Gulf
War, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, SARS,
the downturn that followed the near collapse
of the banking system in 2008-2009 and the
Icelandic ash cloud in 2010 (which halted
flights over the Atlantic and much of Europe)
was that almost no-one saw them coming.
While each of these damaged the industry,
the effect was relatively short lived. Perhaps
the exception – and the one that left the deep-
est and longest-lasting scars – was the terrorist
attacks of 11 September 2001, followed by the
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. These
caused a dramatic drop in passenger traffic,
and, while the impact was felt less in emerg-
ing markets such as Asia and the Middle East,
it forced huge structural changes on the in-
dustry in Europe and North America.
In Europe, the biggest change might have
come anyway. The downturn killed off strug-
gling flag carriers including Sabena and
Swissair and gave the opportunity for low-
cost players such as EasyJet and Ryanair to
exploit a growing market for short leisure
breaks and visits to family and friends, as
Europeans began to alter their holiday habits
from an annual charter flight to the beach to
more regular flying. Legacy carriers were
forced to alter their short-haul business
models in response.
However, from 9/11 until the recovery from
the 2009 banking crisis, the US market went
through a decade of pain, with virtually every
full-service network carrier forced into Chap-
ter 11 bankruptcy protection and three major
airline groups emerging. Boeing – heavily reli-
ant on its large domestic industry at the turn
of the century – saw deliveries fall from 527
in 2001 to 281 in 2003. It was 2012 before ❯❯
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 29
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 TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
Job security

❯❯ shipments overtook the levels they had

been at when hijacked airliners hit the World
Trade Center in New York.
Thousands of pilots were furloughed or
laid off permanently over that time from both
the large carriers and the regional airlines that
fed their hubs. United Airlines alone shed
more than 2,000 pilots after entering Chapter
11 in 2002. While US law allows airlines to
lay off pilots with a view to offering them
their jobs back if conditions improve, thou-
sands chose not to return to the industry and
pursued other careers instead.

AXED PROGRAMMES
Another problem was that, in the USA and
Moving on? After previous
elsewhere, supply of new pilots stopped.

Shutterstock
downturns, many pilots found
Many airlines axed their traditional cadet
new careers away from the airlines
programmes, while, in the USA, the regional
and general aviation segments – a traditional
route for young pilots – were themselves time,” he says. He moved to Southwest there was a furlough list posted on the wall.
downsizing. Few aspiring pilots were pre- Airlines, where he has flown for 14 years as a Pilots I knew personally were on that list and,
pared to invest their own money in training, 737 captain. even though my seniority kept me from
and flying schools themselves closed. It As well as those flying for the majors, 9/11 getting furloughed, I felt bad for everyone on
meant there was a dearth of flightcrew aged was devastating for feeder airlines in North the list. Those of us who managed to stay
under 35 when the industry began its upward America. Bob Smith (not his real name), a employed during the three-month furlough
curve again in the 2010s. Bombardier CRJ pilot, was in Memphis tried to stay unified with those who couldn’t
Mike Gerzanics, FlightGlobal’s flight-test when news came in of the attacks on New work during that period.”
specialist, was a San Francisco-based engi- York. He remembers the weeks of uncertain- Smith’s worry is that many pilots grounded
neering pilot for United in 2001. He and about ty that followed. in this crisis will never return.
20 of his fellow management pilots agreed a “Between the big talkers in the crew rooms “Three friends of mine all furloughed after
pay cut to offset the salary of employees kept and double-talk from management, I  didn’t 9/11 started flying corporate jets and never
on the payroll, but, by 2003, he was made know who to trust. We knew that the majors came back to the airlines. I know a pilot
redundant when the airline closed the engi- were going to furlough, but we didn’t know furloughed from Comair who became an air
neering base. “My experience wasn’t typical about the regionals,” he says. traffic controller, and a friend furloughed in
of furloughed pilots, but it was a difficult “One day I walked into the crew room and 2005 went back to medical school and is now
a doctor in Minnesota. Another friend fur-
loughed in 2008 opened several fast-food
Be selective, keep in touch, stay flexible and upskill restaurants,” he says.
Mark Charman, chief ■ Be on your A game. It’s a fine line between He says that in 25 years as a pilot he has
executive of Goose Don’t let your standards staying on the radar and seen the same pattern repeated. An industry
Recruitment, has some slip with a poorly written being a nuisance. crisis leads to mass lay-offs or pilots being
survival tips for those CV with spelling ■ LinkedIn is your shop furloughed. Then, once recovery begins, air-
affected by the coronavirus mistakes. Don’t leave a window. Put as much lines are unable to fill their cockpits, both be-
crisis, who might suddenly hiring manager with any effort into your profile as cause furloughed pilots have moved on to
have to reassess their doubt about what you you would your CV. Think other jobs and the pipeline of recruits has
careers. can offer their airline. before you link to, like or dried up as young people, nervous about
■ Be active, but selective. ■ Work out what your comment on anything on spending $100,000 or more training for pilot
Don’t be tempted to go transferable skills are and social media. jobs that might never materialise, opt for
into panic mode and whether these could be ■ In an uncertain future, different careers.
apply for everything and applied to different roles more companies may De Juniac has a warning for those who
anything. Match roles and sectors. look to employing staff think governments have more pressing de-
with your skill set. Make ■ Flexibility is key. The on contracts. If you mands on their resources at this time than
each application count. chances of finding your haven’t considered a supporting aviation and those who work in it.
■ It never rains for ever. We perfect job, in the perfect contract role, now may “Letting this industry fail will have an im-
have all been caught in a location, that pays well be the time to start. pact far beyond the livelihoods of the 2.7 mil-
storm and know it passes. are slim. Something may ■ Use any downtime to lion people airlines employ. And it will go
Some companies that have to give. make yourself more beyond the 65 million other jobs in the value
have cut hard will need to ■ Be visible, but don’t be a employable by chain,” he says. “If we don’t have a viable
hire fast when they see a stalker. Keep in touch upgrading your skills. aviation industry when we come out of this
glimmer of light at the with recruiters and Stay informed: read crisis – whenever that may be – restarting the
end of the tunnel. Be airlines you are applying aviation publications and global economy will be severely constrained
prepared. to, but don’t overdo it. web sites. in almost all sectors. And everybody will suf-
fer much longer than necessary.” ■

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 31

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32 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com

CAA INTERNATIONAL (UK CAA)
PROFILE
As part of the UK CAA International Group, CAAi is perfectly placed to provide relevant, best-
in-class training to National Aviation Authorities and Industry across the globe.
Our training experts help aviation professionals achieve higher standards every day, delivering
practical regulatory training for a better, safer aviation world.
Based on ICAO and EASA standards as a minimum, our training covers all of aviation’s major
disciplines, providing you with a wide range of choices for training solutions.
What’s more, every one of our courses is developed by active UK CAA Regulators, so whether
you train with us in the UK, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore or in-company in your
CONTACT region, you’ll receive an education that’s in a class of its own.

INFORMATION
CAA International (UK CAA)
Civil Aviation Authority,
Aviation House, Gatwick Airport South,
RH6 0YR UK
Tel: +44 (0) 3300 224401
Email: training@caainternational.com
www.caainternational.com/training
Part of the UK CAA International Group
HIGHLIGHTS
■ ISO 9001:2015 certified
■ Courses developed by UK CAA Regulators
■ Based on EASA and ICAO Standards and
Recommended Practices
■ EASA Virtual Academy Member
■ Classroom, e-Learning and blended
learning available
■ Accredited provider of short courses by
British Accredited Council
■ Tailored training programmes available
– Delivered in-company, anywhere
worldwide

Explore the world of aviation

regulation with training by the UK CAA
London Gatwick | Kuala Lumpur | Singapore | Bahrain | Hong Kong | In-company
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A comprehensive portfolio of public access courses developed in accordance

with EASA and ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices.
• Aviation Security (Introduction to Security Culture, Managing Insider Risks, Threat
Image Projection – Implementation and Analysis, Security Management Systems)
• Accountable Manager (Aerodrome, Airworthiness, AOC)
• Aerodrome Operations, ATS Regulations, Unmanned Aircraft Systems
• Airworthiness, NDT Audit Oversight, EWIS
• EASA Approvals (Part 21, Part 145, Part 147, Part M, Part SPA, Part CAMO)
• FSTD Operations & Qualification, Audit Techniques
• Human Factors, Root Cause Analysis, International Air Law
• Inspector Theory (Flight Ops, Cabin Safety, Dangerous Goods)
• Safety Management Systems
• Risk Monitoring, Risk Based Oversight, Just Culture, Fatigue Risk Management
To book now or for more information, please visit
www.caainternational.com/training or contact us:
+44 (0) 330 0224401 or training@caainternational.com

www.caainternational.com
Part of the UK CAA International Group Together for better aviation

flightglobal.com 7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 33

 CONTACT INFORMATION
CAE
CAE – 11 Global Locations
Phoenix, United States
Brussels, Belgium
Madrid, Spain
Oslo, Norway
Oxford, United Kingdom
Gondia, India
Melbourne, Australia
Perth, Australia
Tamworth, Australia
Dammam, Saudi Arabia
Sohar, Oman

www.cae.com/becomeapilot
Follow the global journeys of recent CAE graduates by
following #CAEpilot Keep up to date with CAE news and
connect with our training advisors, students and graduates
on our Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram pages.
CAEpilot @CAE_Inc CAE CAEpilot

PROFILE
CAE trains aspiring pilots through its network of aviation academies in
11 global locations. Depending on the location, a range of training
programs are available including, Commercial Pilot License (CPL),
Airline Transport Pilot Licence (ATPL), and airline-mentored Multi-crew
Pilot Licence (MPL), all of which combine premier ground school
courses with high quality flying instruction.
No other organisation places more pilots with more airlines than CAE.
CAE has active cadet programs with JetBlue, American Airlines,
Aeromexico, easyJet, Ryanair, Cityjet, Volotea, IndiGo and Jet
Airways. Every year, 1500 + new pilots graduate from CAE. Our nu-
merous relationships with airlines around the globe, translates into
more career opportunities for our students. CAE has a dedicated
team that provides pre-employment support, and advice to enable
our graduates to gain their first professional flying job.
CAE offers training programs that address the entire career life cycle
of a pilot from cadet to captain. As the training partner of choice of
many aircraft manufacturers and airlines, we offer innovative training
solutions to our customers, such as the recently launched CAE Rise™
training system, the XR Series Training Equipment suite, including the
CAE 7000XR Series full-flight simulator. With 50+ training locations
worldwide, CAE has the world’s largest civil aviation training network,
providing training on the widest coverage of in-production and in-
service aircraft models. In addition, we offer aviation personnel
sourcing services including recruitment of flight personnel and leasing
of pilots to airlines.
In 2018, CAE announced the introduction of the CAE Women in Flight
scholarship program, demonstrating its commitment to promoting the
advancement of women in the aviation industry. The CAE Women in
Flight scholarship program is a competitive program seeking for
female ambassadors who demonstrate leadership skills, active involve-
ment in their communities, perseverance and who are passionate
about aviation. CAE will provide financial support to aspiring female
pilots by awarding five full scholarships, across its global training net-
work to support greater diversity and a better gender balance in the
aviation industry. For more information, visit cae.com/womeninflight
Backed by a record of more than 70 years of industry firsts, we
continue to help define global training standards with our innovative
virtual-to-live training solutions to make flying safer, maintain defense
force readiness and enhance patient safety. We have the broadest
global presence in the industry, with over 9,000 employees, 160 sites
and training locations in over 35 countries. Each year, we train more
than 220,000 civil and defense crewmembers, including more than
135,000 pilots, and thousands of healthcare professionals worldwide.
www.cae.com

HIGHLIGHTS
■ Largest cadet training network in the
world
■ Modern fleet of EFIS ‘glass cockpit’
training aircraft including Piper, Cessna
and Diamond aircraft types
■ Cadet training partnerships with some of
the world’s leading airlines, including
Aeromexico, American Airlines, Cityjet,
China Southern, easyJet, Japan Airlines, Jet
Airways, JetBlue, Jetstar Australia, IndiGo,
Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, Volotea and
Vueling
■ CAE training programmes span the entire
life cycle of a professional pilot, so we’re
able to provide you with the training you
require throughout your career, from cadet
to captain
■ As the worldwide training partner of
choice, no other training provider places
more pilots with airlines than CAE

34 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com

How do you
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FLIGHT SAFETY INTERNATIONAL
CONTACT INFORMATION
FlightSafety International
Marine Air Terminal
LaGuardia Airport
New York, NY
11371-1061
United States
Tel: +1 314 785 7815
Email: sales@flightsafety.com
www.flightsafety.com

PROFILE
FlightSafety International, the world’s leading aviation training
company, employs 2,000 of the industry’s best instructors to deliver
more than 1.4 million hours of simulator-based training a year to
aviation professionals from 167 countries and independent territories.
We serve business, commercial and military aviation organizations for
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We deliver mission-specific training for helicopter pilots and crew;
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We engineer, manufacture and support the world’s most sophisticated
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For nearly seven decades, we have been enhancing safety with
superior training, continually investing in technology, personnel and
an expanding worldwide network of Learning Centers to provide the
greatest value in aviation training.
Contact Steve Gross, Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing,
+1 314 785 7815. Email: sales@flightsafety.com

HIGHLIGHTS
■ Factory-authorised training
■ Training Customers from 167 countries
■ World leading simulator and visual ■ More than 320 full flight simulators
systems manufacturer
■ Outstanding Customer service
■ Worldwide network of Learning Centre
locations

36 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com

 Complete Training FLIGHTSAFETY
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flightglobal.com month year | Flight Training and Development | 37

STRAIGHT&LEVEL
From yuckspeak to tales of yore, send your offcuts to murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com
Airbus backs
Mossie project
Things have been rocky for
Airbus of late, as they have been
for the whole supply chain, but
there is encouraging news on
UK aircraft manufacturing from
The People’s Mosquito, a project
to restore a de Havilland DH.98
by the middle of the decade.
The European airframer is to
put its financial weight behind
the charity’s effort to rebuild
RL249 – a Mosquito that crashed
near RAF Coltishall in Norfolk
in 1949 – and fly it at air shows.
The final 90 or so examples
of the twin-engined aircraft
were built at Hawarden in North
Wales, now part of Airbus’s
Broughton complex, before
production ended in 1950.
“Airbus is a strong believer
in preserving wider aviation
heritage and we are proud to
be supporting The People’s
Mosquito in this endeavour,”
says Jeremy Greaves, vice-
president corporate affairs and
strategy at Airbus UK.
“The Mosquito is an exemplar
of British aeronautical design
excellence – an engineering
pedigree that Airbus carries
forward,” says John Lilley,
People’s Mosquito chairman. In a
tweet, the organisation adds: “We
hope this puts a smile on faces
and reminds us all that British
engineering, innovation and
craftsmanship will always shine.”
The Wooden Wonder’s
restoration project will be led by
An enduring British classic
38 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020
Peter Bish
Rangoon landing
On April 6, at noon, Capt.
Matthews on his Sopwith
“Wallaby”
arrived at
Bangkok, having
flown from
Rangoon. Lieuts. Parer and
Macintosh, on their De H. 9,
arrived at Rangoon on April
2. They were delayed by a
forced landing on the banks
of the Irrawaddy, and had to
seek the aid of the villagers
to cut away the jungle to
Peter Bish, who took the above photograph, suggests: enable the plane to rise.
‘Such is the demand for cargo flights during the
coronavirus pandemic to keep the world supplied with German airlines
food, medication and loo rolls, that Louis Vuitton has Lord Swinton said in an
pressed two of these unmanned cargo copters into interview at Capetown that
service at Singapore Changi Terminal 3’ “Germany
would not be
allowed after this
Retrotec, a specialist historic war to make,
aircraft engineering company own or operate aircraft.
based near Hastings, with She has proved she cannot
assistance from technicians in be trusted with them. An
New Zealand, home to one of international organisation
three Mossies still airworthy. will have to be formed to
Noi Bai airport operate her internal civilian
air services.”
Mist opportunity Walk this way for a quick rinse
The coronavirus crisis has Hijacking ends
sparked a great deal of enveloping the whole body. One of the longest and
ingenuity, including this whole- Noi Bai, says director Nguyen most publicised hijacking
body disinfection chamber at Duc Hung, is willing to share the incidents to date
Vietnam’s Noi Bai airport. technology with those in need. came to an end
Dreamed up by engineers at the on April 5 when
local aviation technical service a Japan Air Lines
centre, the unit uses a fine salt
Not too close Boeing 727 returned home
solution to create an anti- Our colleagues in the travel after an enforced stay in
bacterial mist that is trade media in the UK and Korea; it had been seized
automatically pumped into Ireland have come together five days earlier during a
the chamber every 30s, under the #onetravelmedia domestic flight by a gang
banner to promote the industry of students armed with
at this difficult time. swords and explosives.
However, given the social
distancing rules, one editor may Comanche plan
regret tweeting: “Really proud to The US Department of
stand shoulder to shoulder with Defense has approved a
other media titles on this.” US Army plan
for the Boeing
Sikorsky RAH-66
Missing you Comanche
This sales pitch from a business scout/attack helicopter
aircraft broker a week or two which calls for two
back has not aged well: “Avoid prototypes, six “early
crowded airports and grounded operational capability”
Shutterstock
flights. Fly a private jet.” aircraft, and entry into
Have they visited an airport service in 2007.
recently?
flightglobal.com
flight.international@flightglobal.com
We welcome your letters on any
aspect of the aerospace industry.
Please write to:
The Editor, Flight International,
1st Floor, Chancery House,
St Nicholas Way, Sutton,
Surrey, SM1 1JB, UK
Or email:
flight.international@flightglobal.com
The opinions on this page do not
necessarily represent those of the editor.
Letters without a full postal address sup-
plied may not be published. Letters may
also be published on flightglobal.com
and must be no longer than 250 words.
The UK must
not leave EASA
Regarding your opinion piece
“Soft landing?” (Flight Interna-
tional, 17-23 March): whatever
your opinion on Brexit, now is
not the time for the UK industry
to leave the European Union Avi-
ation Safety Agency (EASA).
Such changes would add fi-
nancial strain and commitment
to an industry being ravaged by
the coronavirus pandemic.
I and many others across Eu-
rope were involved in early rule-
making when the Joint Aviation
Authority was in its infancy.
We were all attempting to cre-
ate a safer environment for the
travelling public, and a level
playing field for the EU aviation
family. EASA did away with UK
aircraft special conditions and
other requirements that had been
costing UK airlines around $1
million per aircraft.
The costs of some activities of
the self-ruling UK Civil Aviation
Authority (CAA) were also saved.
These represent just the tip of the
iceberg of the additional costs in-
volved. For example, where air-
lines have links with European
partners, moving aircraft across
borders will become more
problematic and expensive.
The industry must focus on
what is good for UK aviation and
manufacturing – not let the
industry standards submit to a
decision made by the UK elector-
ate on the unrelated matters of
border issues, and who should
govern the UK.
flightglobal.com
LETTERS
Secondary market
prospects for the
A380 are declining
Airbus
COMPETITION
Differing approaches to the large-aircraft market
The article “Rest in pieces” (Flight International, 24-30 March) about the diminishing prospects of
the A380 perpetuates the myth that Airbus and Boeing had different approaches to the market,
because it completely ignores the billions of dollars that the US manufacturer invested in
developing the 747-8.
Why would Boeing make a major investment in stretching the 747, unless it saw a market for
very large aircraft?
The reality is that Airbus recognised market fragmentation by creating aircraft such as the
A330/A340 and A350 families for point-to-point routes – as well as creating the A380 for higher
capacity routes – and Boeing pursued a similar approach with the 777 and 747 series.
The main difference is that Airbus created a more modern family by developing a brand new
very large aircraft, while Boeing tried to extend the life of an old one.
David Velupillai
via email
One approach could be to in- Boeing 747s and Airbus A340s,
vite EASA, CAA and even the
State aid should for example. Let us not see direct
US regulator to tender to fulfil be justified subsidies that do not address the
the new CAA requirements. fundamental issues of overcapac-
Safety is paramount, but eco- It is highly likely – even if the ity and pollution.
nomics are also important for world can come out of its various Hamish Dow
the hard-hit industry. isolation regimes within four via email
Any move away from EASA months – that the airline busi-
and untangling the politics ness is unlikely to recover for
should not even be contemplated potentially some years. Bail out airlines
for at least two years to allow the State aid from Europe and the with loans
industry to recover. The right staff USA needs to be channelled in
and experts will need to be con- the most effective way, helping Airlines must be bailed out if the
sulted and have time to formulate both manufacturers and airlines world is to get back on its feet
the new legislation. Reverting to a alike. It also needs to be justified properly after the virus is spent,
more autocratic and expensive to the taxpayers of the world. but it is only fair that it is done
CAA, which will be duplicating Some form of aircraft scrap- through loans only. Some US
much EASA work, is not the best page scheme needs to be airlines – instead of building
option overall and is not in the introduced. This will reduce their cash positions for a rainy
interests of the industry. excess capacity immediately, day – blew large sums of money
Change should be for the encourage manufacturing orders on buying back their own shares,
better and this opportunity of more efficient aircraft, and presumably so the bonus pool
should not be missed. have environmental benefits of would be great. Unforgivable.
Don Landsborough being targeted at removing the John Wallinger
via email worst polluting planes – older Upton Grey, Hampshire, UK
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 39
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40 | Flight International | 7-13 April 2020 flightglobal.com


WORK EXPERIENCE GARY CHAFIN
A compulsion to drive propulsion
As vice-president of global sales and product support for Hartzell Propeller, Gary Chafin tends to
spend much of his time on the road, concentrating on business development and emerging markets
What sparked your interest
in aviation?
As a Federal Aviation Adminis-
tration-certificated private pilot, I
have had a lifelong passion for
aviation. My career in the indus-
try started 40 years ago, when I
enlisted in the US Air Force after
high school. When I said I want-
ed to be a mechanic, they put me
on the aircraft maintenance
track. From there I progressed to
crew chief at Wright Patterson
AFB in Dayton, Ohio. After six
years, I left the air force and start-
ed at Hartzell Propeller, where I
have been for 32 years.
How has your career
progressed?
I was a low man on the totem
pole at first. I’d jump on a plane
with a toolbox and go out as a
propeller repair man. Since then,
I’ve held many positions, includ-
ing product support representa-
tive, shop supervisor, airline sup-
port supervisor, and manager of
product support. I became vice-
president of global sales and
product support in 2014.
What are your career highlights?
In the early 1990s, we made our
first foray into the larger regional
airlines and designed our first
dual-acting propeller, a certificat-
ed six-blade carbonfibre model
for the Dornier 328. I led support
on that programme. The Dornier
business was very challenging.
We went from a small, general
aviation-focused company, to
one that was working with the
big airlines. All the tools and
systems, everything we put in
place to raise our game during
%JGEMQWV(NKIJV+PVGTPCVKQPCNoU+OCIG5VQTG
Browse or customise a gift or memento from our %76#9#;#4%*+8'
flightglobal.com
Manufacturer will continue to focus on new composites, says Chafin
that period – that’s all still here. It
took us to the next level, and we
have been able to sustain that.
How would you describe your
role and responsibilities?
I oversee all the sales functions
– covering OEM, aftermarket and
service centre sales. I have a team
of people responsible for the day
to day here. I have a product
support group, which includes
our technical publications
department. Beyond that, I spend
a lot of time on the road, focusing
on business development and
emerging markets. I travel up to
125 days a year, 75% internation-
ally. I go to China twice a year,
and to India once. I have also
started travelling to Africa.
What are the challenges
of your job?
We certificated our first structural
composite in 1978. In 2006, when
we came out with the Next Gener-
of more than 1000 aircraft drawings
YYYƃKIJVINQDCNKOCIGUEQO
WORKING WEEK
Hartzell name. I see our logo
everywhere. It doesn’t matter
what country I’m in, I’m going to
see a propeller with the Hartzell
logo. There’s this assumption that
we’re this massive company.
We’re only 270 people, yet we
have this very broad international
footprint and broad suite of prod-
ucts. We have been in the propel-
ler business for 100 years. We’re
in this small town in Ohio and
we’re family-orientated. It’s amaz-
ing to have this group of really
hard-working, dedicated people
Hartzell Propeller
who stay with us for decades.
What’s next for Hartzell’s
product line?
We will continue to see the
growth of composites. Whether
ation composite propeller on the the customer is looking for a di-
Cirrus SR22, you could see our rect replacement for the weight
evolution over two composite savings, or whether it’s being
programmes. The development able to add a blade without add-
time and everything else became ing weight. We see both in the
more challenging. A lot of cus- pull from the OEMs, as well as in
tomers want to move to the Next the aftermarket. That will contin-
Gen composite, so we spend a lot ue to grow. And as the market for
of time educating them on the UAM, electric and hybrid pro-
material properties of a structural pulsion evolves, we are going to
composite versus a wood core, focus on making sure we have
the benefits and advantages that got the right offerings, and under-
justify the higher cost. Beyond stand how best to optimise the
that, we are looking at the evolu- control of the propeller on these
tion of electric and hybrid aircraft, new types of vehicles. ■
and urban air mobility (UAM), as Looking for a job in aerospace?
well as the next wave of innova- Check out our listings online at
tions. We are determining which flightglobal.com/jobs
programmes to partner with as
the technology comes to fruition. If you would like to feature in
What do you enjoy the most Working Week, or you know
about your job? someone who would, email
The company. When I go out and your pitch to kate.sarsfield@
meet customers at trade shows or flightglobal.com
on visits, everyone knows the
7-13 April 2020 | Flight International | 43
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