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DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC Report created Nov 26, 2019 Page 1 OF 5
DLR shares are trading above the midpoint of their 52-week range of $100-$136. The shares trade at Argus Recommendations
17.2-times our 2020 AFFO estimate, compared to the five-year historical range of 12.0-20.6 and the peer
average of 19.4. DLR also trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.0, below the peer average of 21.0, despite
our expectations for superior growth. Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY
Analysis by Jacob Kilstein, CFA, November 25, 2019 Under Market Over
Sector Rating Weight Weight Weight
ARGUS RATING: BUY
Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each
• Maintaining BUY on fast-growing data center REIT stock under coverage.
• We believe that DLR has strong opportunities in the global colocation market, and note that the • BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the
benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the
company has grown both organically and through acquisitions. next year.
• On October 29, concurrent with earnings, Digital Realty announced that it would acquire Interxion • HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the
(NYSE: INXN), a European data storage company, for $8.4 billion in stock, representing a 20% market.
premium. The businesses are complementary and will triple DLR's European data center locations. • SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market
on a risk-adjusted basis.
• We are lowering our 2019 FFO estimate to $6.62 per share from $6.68 based on our expectations for The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company
lost revenue from dispositions. We are also lowering our 2020 FFO estimate to $6.87 from $6.99 universe is: 66% Buy, 34% Hold, 0% Sell.
based on integration costs from the INXN merger.
• DLR pays a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per share, or $4.32 annually, for a yield of about 3.6%. Over Key Statistics
the past four years, the board has raised the dividend at a 5.4% average annual rate. Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing
price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless
INVESTMENT THESIS otherwise specified
We are maintaining our BUY rating on Digital Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: DLR), a real Market Overview
estate investment trust that operates global interconnection and data centers, but lowering Price $118.25
our price target to $130 from $140 target price, based on our lower FFO estimates. The Target Price $130.00
company helps customers develop secure networks and cloud-neutral data center 52 Week Price Range $100.05 to $136.32
platforms, and is at the forefront of the secular transition from on-premises data centers to Shares Outstanding 208.72 Million
cloud colocation centers. (Colocation centers rent space to multiple tenants to house their Dividend $4.32
IT hardware.) Digital Realty's global platform serves customers in more than 35 major Sector Overview
markets on five continents. We believe that DLR has strong opportunities in the global Sector Real Estate
colocation market, and note that the company has grown both organically and through Sector Rating MARKET WEIGHT
acquisitions. The company recently announced an $8.4 billion acquisition of a European Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap. 3.00%
data storage company, Interxion, which should help DLR's growth prospects there. Financial Strength
We believe that DLR shares remain undervalued at current levels given the company's Financial Strength Rating MEDIUM-HIGH
strong growth prospects and record of dividend increases. Debt/Capital Ratio 50.5%
Return on Equity 17.3%
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Net Margin 9.2%
Payout Ratio 0.64
Market Data Pricing reflects previous trading week's closing price. Current Ratio --
200-Day Moving Average Target Price: $130.00 52 Week High: $134.25 52 Week Low: $115.75 Closed at $119.60 on 11/22 Revenue $3.20 Billion
Price After-Tax Income $295.04 Million
($)
Valuation
120
Current FY P/E 17.86
Prior FY P/E 17.92
100
Price/Sales 7.71
80 Price/Book 3.05
Book Value/Share $38.72
Market Capitalization $24.68 Billion
Rating BUY
HOLD
SELL Forecasted Growth
EPS 1 Year EPS Growth Forecast
($) 0.30%
5 Year EPS Growth Forecast
6.30%
Quarterly 1.50 1.54 1.51 1.55 1.63 1.66 1.63 1.68 1.73 1.64 1.67 1.60 1.66 1.70 1.72 1.78
6.14 6.60 6.62 ( Estimate) 6.87 ( Estimate)
1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast
Annual
5.20%
Revenue
($ in Mil.) Risk
Beta 0.70
Quarterly 616.0 627.0 616.0 629.0 744.4 754.9 768.9 778.3 814.5 800.8 806.5 797.1 817.0 822.7 850.0 872.7 Institutional Ownership 103.31%
Annual 2488.0 3046.5 3218.8 ( Estimate) 3362.4 ( Estimate)
FY ends Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Dec 31 2017 2018 2019 2020
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC Report created Nov 26, 2019 Page 2 OF 5
Analyst's Notes...Continued
DLR shares have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last midpoint due to the closing of a $1.0 billion joint venture with
three months, declining 1%, compared to a 10% gain for the Mapletree in early November.
index. The shares have also underperformed over the past year, In 3Q19, Digital Realty signed new leases that are expected to
rising 9% compared to a gain of 19% for the broad market. The generate $69 million of annualized rental revenue. In addition, the
beta on DLR is 0.73, below the 0.84 average for data center REITs. company signed renewal leases representing $152 million of
On October 29, concurrent with earnings, Digital Realty annualized revenue. The company also acquired 22,000 square feet
announced that it would acquire Interxion (NYSE: INXN), a of land in South Korea for $15 million that it will use to develop its
European data storage company, for $8.4 billion in stock, global platform. Construction on a facility will begin in the next
representing a 20% premium. Shareholders of INXN will receive few months and be complete in 2021.
0.71 shares of DLR stock per share of INXN. DLR shareholders On September 16, the company announced the sale of 10
will own 80% of the combined company and INXN 20%. The powered base building data centers (undeveloped space with
deal is expected to close in 2020 following approval from connectivity already in place) to Mapletree Investments and
regulators and shareholders from both companies. Management Mapletree Industrial Trust, a REIT, for $557 million. Those
expects the merger to be dilutive to 2020 earnings and accretive in transactions are expected to close in early 2020. On November 4,
2021. The businesses are complementary and will triple DLR's the Mapletree entities bought 80% of three stabilized facilities for
European data center locations. $811 million. DLR is maintaining a 20% stake, and thereby
For 3Q19, DLR reported revenue of $806 million, up 5% from forming a joint venture with Mapletree. Proceeds from the sales
the prior-year period, helped by higher rental income. Revenue was will be used to pay down debt and fund investments.
below our estimate of $817 million and the consensus forecast of EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS
$814 million. Core FFO rose 4% to $365 million, partly due to
higher revenue. Core FFO per share rose 2% to $1.67, which beat We are lowering our 2019 FFO estimate to $6.62 per share
our estimate of $1.65 and the consensus forecast of $1.63. from $6.68 based on our expectations for lost revenue from
Concurrent with earnings, management lowered its full-year dispositions. We are also lowering our 2020 FFO estimate to $6.87
revenue guidance to $3.2 billion from $3.2-$3.3 billion, implying from $6.99 based on integration costs from the INXN merger.
5% growth. Management also lowered its core FFO guidance to FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND
$6.55-$6.65 per share from $6.60-$6.70, up less than 1% at the Our financial strength rating on DLR is Medium-High, the
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC Report created Nov 26, 2019 Page 3 OF 5
Analyst's Notes...Continued
second-highest rank on our five-point scale. Standard & Poor's, DLR faces risks associated with acquisitions, expansion
Moody's, and Fitch rate DLR's debt at BBB, Baa2, and BBB, projects, and revenue streams that are largely concentrated in the
respectively. Americas. Digital Realty is expanding globally, which view
At the end of 3Q19, debt totaled $10.9 billion, down from positively, but revenue from properties inside the United States
$11.1 billion at the end of 2018. Cash and cash equivalents were accounted for almost 78% of 3Q19 revenue. As such, any
$7 million at the close of 3Q19, down from $127 million at the downturn in the U.S. market could significantly hurt overall results.
end of 2018. The net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 6.1, REITs in general face interest rate risk, which may be
above the peer average of 5.7. The debt/capital ratio was 53%, exacerbated if acquisitions are funded with floating-rate debt, or if
compared to 56% for peers. EBITDA for the third quarter covered existing debt matures and credit conditions are tight. The high
interest expense by a factor of 5.6, above the peer average of 4.4. 3.6% yield may cause the stock to act more like a bond if interest
Lastly, the 3Q EBITDA margin was 59%, above the peer average rates rise.
of 50%. COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Digital Realty Trust pays a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per
share, or $4.32 annually, for a yield of about 3.6%. On November Digital Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust focusing on
20, DLR's board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of interconnected data centers. Digital Realty Trust also develops data
$1.08 per share, payable on January 15 to holders of record on center platforms for businesses involved in cloud software, IT,
December 13. Over the past four years, the board has raised the financial services, social media, and mobile services. The company
dividend at an average annual rate of 5.4%. Our dividend operates in more than 35 metropolitan markets on five continents.
estimates are $4.25 for 2019, lowered from $4.32, and $4.47 for VALUATION
2020, lowered from $4.52. DLR shares are trading above the midpoint of their 52-week
MANAGEMENT & RISKS range of $100-$136. The shares trade at 17.2-times our 2020
William Stein became the company's CEO in September 2014 AFFO estimate, compared to the five-year historical range of
and previously served as CFO and CIO. He has been with the 12.0-20.6 and the peer average of 19.4. DLR also trades at an
company since 2004. Andrew Power is the CFO, and has been with EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.0, below the peer average of 21.0,
the company since May 2015. despite our expectations for superior growth.
We are lowering our 12-month target price to $130 from $140
Value
P/E
Analyst's Notes...Continued
as a result of our lower FFO estimates.
On November 25, BUY-rated DLR closed at $118.30, down
$1.30.
About Argus
Argus Research, founded by Economist Harold Dorsey in 1934, And finally, Argus’ Valuation Analysis model integrates a
has built a top-down, fundamental system that is used by Argus historical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peer
analysts. This six-point system includes Industry Analysis, Growth comparison.
Analysis, Financial Strength Analysis, Management Assessment, THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM
Risk Analysis and Valuation Analysis. Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL.
Utilizing forecasts from Argus’ Economist, the Industry Analysis Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500.
identifies industries expected to perform well over the next • A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 on
one-to-two years. a risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make this
The Growth Analysis generates proprietary estimates for determination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as the
companies under coverage. measure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stock
In the Financial Strength Analysis, analysts study ratios to returns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus Market
understand profitability, liquidity and capital structure. Strategist.
During the Management Assessment, analysts meet with and • A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with the
familiarize themselves with the processes of corporate management S&P 500.
teams. • A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500.
Quantitative trends and qualitative threats are assessed under
the Risk Analysis.
Morningstar Disclaimer
© 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Certain financial information included in this report: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be
copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising
from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.