Powerful Times

Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World

by Eamonn Kelly
Wharton School Publishing © 2005
288 pages

Focus Take-Aways
Leadership & Mgt. • The world is changing under the pressure of seven paired forces.
Strategy
• They are: clarity and craziness, secular and sacred, power and vulnerability,
Sales & Marketing
advancing technology and a pull back, intangible and physical economics,
Finance
prosperity and decline, and people and the planet.
Human Resources
IT, Production & Logistics • Change across national boundaries requires action on the global level.
Career Development • Social and historical forces actually shape occurrences that people assume are
Small Business simply natural.
Economics & Politics
• The economy of the future will be shaped by trade in intangibles, shifts in the
Industries
global distribution of wealth and the aging of Western populations.
Regions
Concepts & Trends • This economy will require moving from "either/or" to "both/and" logic.
• Every change in the global economy creates both new competition and new markets.
• Confronting change requires both "bottom-up" and "top-down" actions.
• Proliferating information makes the world seem at the same time more transparent
and more overwhelming.
• Future leaders will need to consider personal and global factors.

Rating (10 is best)

Overall Importance Innovation Style

8 7 8 8

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 Relevance

What You Will Learn

In this Abstract, you will learn: 1) Why the future won’t look like the past; 2) How
seven pairs of social forces are intersecting to shape both the present and the future;
and 3) How to plan for global change.

Recommendation
Eamonn Kelly’s predictions aren’t as simple as those offered by some futurists, but
that’s because he’s trying to be realistic about the complexity of “powerful times.” And
while Kelly’s ideas aren’t simple, they are clear. You can take any one of his predictions,
such as the growing importance of water or the rise of consciousness about the sacred,
and work through the implications for business and home life. In fact, Kelly explicitly
asks readers to do so. His afterword poses a series of questions about how individuals
and organizations are experiencing the changes he enumerates and invites readers to
share their ideas within their organizations and on his Web site. Kelly emphasizes
that humanity has just begun to feel the effects of many of the high-profile changes of
recent decades, and that they haven’t yet worked their way through the global economy.
If the book has a weakness, it is that it’s so focused on the United States. Kelly’s
treatment of Western ideals in general, and of U.S. military and political aims, seems
to take America’s self-image for granted. getAbstract recommends Kelly’s book to
policy wonks, executives involved in change management and, in general, anybody
seriously planning for the future.

Abstract

“We cannot “Powerful Times”

anticipate the
future without first
Today is a time of great “cognitive dissonance,” as popular notions about the world seem
reflecting upon less and less relevant to what’s actually happening. Complexity and ambiguity seem
and deepening to be constantly increasing. Policymakers face questions with sweeping implications:
our understanding How real a threat is global warming? Will terrorism spread? How can anyone tell?
of the current
dynamics that What is the solution?
will shape
things to come.” Contemporary problems are rooted in past solutions. For example, the nation-state, the
organizational structure that dominates today’s political landscape, is not natural and
inevitable. Rather, it arose out of the historical forces of the Renaissance and Enlight-
enment periods. Because today’s threats are not confined within national boundaries,
responding to them will require new forms of political organization.

“Today there Making sense of the current period requires new assumptions. Western science and
is growing ideology have an “either/or” orientation that says one choice or the other is true – not
dissonance both. Yet today, contradictions abound. These are the best of times: material wealth and
between the
dynamic and
average life spans are rising; creativity and new ideas are proliferating. These are also
uncertain world the worst of times: human beings have destroyed the environment and live in fear of
we have created terrorists. Which is true? Both.
for ourselves and
our instinctive The following seven pairs of forces are in “dynamic tension.” All exist simultaneously,
preferred postures
toward that world.” and none will prevail. That complexity is what makes these “powerful times.”

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 1. “Clarity and Craziness”
“During turbulent
times, our past
Many trends are making the world more transparent, the most obvious of which is the
experiences interconnectedness enabled by the Internet. The amount of information available to
may be a poor everyone means that individuals are more “visible” than in the past. Surveillance is
guide and our increasing, from orbiting satellites to street-level cameras. Sensors monitor drug traffic,
embedded
assumptions may bird migration and environmental changes. Corporations such as Wal-Mart use radio
be outmoded frequency identification (RFID) to track the progress of products from the factory to the
and irrelevant.” consumer. Likewise, governments use biometric identification and tracking devices to
increase security. Some fear that these practices spell the end of privacy. At the least, the
definition of “privacy” will change.
Interconnectedness also spreads “craziness.” People are drowning in data. Conspiracy
theories and urban legends are multiplying. Business and governments add to the
“In the coming confusion by deliberately spreading false and self-serving information. The resulting
decade, we will
develop a deeper
anxiety reduces trust.
understanding of
how to meet our 2. “Secular and Sacred”
growing needs Since the Enlightenment, Western society has steadily become more secular. The framers
and wants while
protecting our
of the U.S. Constitution wrote separation of church and state into the Bill of Rights.
planet and its The more emphasis societies have placed on secular rationality and its accompanying
ability to provide attitudes in science and economics, the richer, healthier and more democratic they
a home for future
have become. As a result, many people assumed that the decline of religion was both
generations.”
inevitable and natural.
However, for some, the rational, scientific worldview excludes too much of human
experience. They find it reductionist and emotionally unsatisfying. Christian and Islamic
fundamentalism, with their deep roots in their respective cultures and their promise of
clear rules for ethical conduct, have grown in their appeal – a worldwide phenomenon
“If we keep our
focus narrow, that surprised secular humanists. Although both fundamentalisms appeal to people’s
we will probably fears of a changing world, fear is not their only appeal. Like the more amorphous New
not notice the Age spirituality movement, they are attempts to reconnect with the sacred.
big picture. But
in a world of
unexpected and 3. “Power and Vulnerability”
radical changes, When the Cold War ended, many people hoped that the world had turned a corner into
we will need to a new era of freedom and peace. The U.S. emerged, due to its economic superiority,
widen our lenses.”
as the sole remaining superpower. It claimed to have no interest in building an empire
and believed itself essentially safe. September 11, 2001 changed all that. The attacks
refocused U.S. foreign and domestic policy on the threat of terrorism. U.S. military
spending started to grow, after a brief reduction in the 1990s, and the U.S. strategic
focus shifted from traditional geographical locations such as Europe and Japan toward
“The tension new battlegrounds and new types of warfare. However, September 11 also crystallized
between the U.S. desire to export democracy and freedom as a kind of cultural self-defense.
the secular
and sacred Despite its military superiority, the U.S. cannot remodel the world by itself; instead it
worldviews – and, will have to learn to build coalitions, blending the “hard” power of the military with
in particular, the “soft” power of diplomacy.
between different
sacred belief U.S. diplomacy and the U.S. military build-up are responses to real threats, but they
systems – seems also address a more amorphous enemy: the feeling of vulnerability. People’s innate
set to be an
important source tendency toward being fearful, which the media often exploits, is exacerbated by baffling
of political and changes, such as the difference between conventional warfare and terrorism, or between
social strife.” old infections and new diseases such as AIDS and SARS, which travel quickly and

Powerful Times © Copyright 2006 getAbstract 3 of 5

 apparently mysteriously around the world. The threats are symbolized by computer
viruses, which strike through the very systems you depend upon more and more.
“The pursuit
of advantages
in power will 4. “Technology Acceleration and Pushback”
continue to involve The technology explosion of the last several decades has been fueled by computers’ ever-
the development
increasing speed and sophistication. The imminent introduction of quantum computers
and deployment
of increasingly and computers that operate on biological principles will only increase the pace of
sophisticated change. Nanotechnology will change manufacturing. Biotechnology will challenge the
technology, while very definition of a human being, both by its explorations of the genome and by its
our growing sense
of vulnerability augmentation of human capacity: Do you really need to sleep? Why not link to your
will include computer through your thoughts?
fears about
technological The rate and success of twentieth and twenty-fi rst century technological change is
overreach.” creating a backlash of resistance and criticism that will make nineteenth-century loom-
smashing Luddites and Frankensteinian nightmares look tame. Some contemporary
criticism is moral, concerned that prideful humans have forgotten their proper role.
Other resistance is pragmatic, arising from fears about the unintended consequences of
technologies that, because of their small size and portability, are difficult to police and
“Throughout could fall into the wrong hands.
history, one of the
most important 5. “Intangible and Physical Economies”
effects of
new technology Preindustrial and industrial economies depended on physical objects that people
has been to created, transported and sold. In the postindustrial economy, people sell services
generate structural instead. Knowledge and concept-intensive activities, such as information processing,
economic change.”
simulations and aesthetic design, create value. For businesses, connectivity, community
and specialized knowledge are becoming more important than physical assets.
At the same time, the industrialized world’s infrastructure is out of date and overloaded.
Too many people depend on the same roads, power grids and water supplies. Information-
“Technologies of age products, such as smart pavement or robots that repair sewers, may not be able to
communication compensate for these problems. Some resources, like water, will always be finite, and
and connection thus the question of who pays will always be relevant.
are fueling the
most significant
economic 6. “Prosperity and Decline”
transition since Before the Renaissance, wealth was distributed fairly evenly around the planet: whether
the industrial you looked at China or England, the average income was roughly the same. However, due
revolution: the
migration toward
to capitalism and industrialization, the distribution of wealth is now radically uneven.
an ‘intangible’ This creates tension between the rich and the poor, as well as certain expectations about
economy.” the way the world works. However, the combination of large populations and intellectual
capital in countries such as China and India will reshape the world economy. Wealth
won’t only move around; the rules governing its movement will change. For example,
China’s laws and practices regarding intellectual property are different from those in the
West. Brazil’s are also different; its high HIV infection rate led to its decision to ignore
“In the coming laws regarding proprietary and generic drugs. As new players enter the markets, new
decade, an rules, such as local tariffs, will shape their interactions.
increasingly global
economy will Regional needs will create new challenges and opportunities. Abject poverty will
generate different keep some areas from industrializing – or even surviving – without help. HIV and
and seemingly
contradictory malnutrition are overwhelming the social structures of the world’s poorest nations. The
economic prosperous nations will need to step in, both out of compassion and to keep poverty
conditions from feeding violence.
around the world.”

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 7. “People and Planet”
Periodic warnings during the past 200 years that the world population is overwhelming
the planet’s carrying capacity have made people skeptical about the dangers of
overpopulation, especially since birth rates have dropped in industrialized countries.
However, even if the population stabilizes, it may do so at a very overcrowded level,
creating new global tensions.
“Business is
most likely to The populations of rich nations are aging, while those of poor nations are getting
be affected [by younger. Ambitious young people will begin to migrate “from south to north” and “from
change] because
countryside to city” in search of better lives. No matter where this increased population
of the immense
power it wields ends up, it will continue to destroy ecological niches, drive plant and animal species
and the relatively into extinction, and use huge amounts of energy. Since fossil fuels will still generate
little accountability much of this energy, the greenhouse effect will intensify. Climate change will transform
that has been
imposed to date harvests and render some areas uninhabitable. The costs and levels of destruction are
on how that power massive and unpredictable.
is exercised.”
The Dynamics of Transformation
Different kinds of forces will drive the direction of world change, including:
• “Bottom up” or “top down” – Governments favor top-down solutions as they push
for greater control and seek to manage change through centralization. At the same
time, elements of the information economy, such as the nearly ubiquitous availability
of personal computers, fuel change from the bottom up.
• A powerful U.S. – In a purely bottom-up scenario, the U.S. would become only
one of many players in a completely transformed world order. However, the U.S.
could build on its current superpower status to shape and dominate the coming
age, blending military might with economic superiority to impose its will, or more
benignly, to guide others.
• A “patchwork” – In a “patchwork” of competing powers, the United States would
still be strong, but not necessarily any more dominant than, say, China.

How Can You Shape the Future?

“There is only Every individual and organization must act now to slow negative environmental changes.
one actor we can The world certainly faces many threats, but these are the most destructive and costly.
expect to promote Environmental degradation does not respect national sovereignty, so individuals,
the growing
consciousness
organizations and governments will have to take united action. At the same time, regional
of a global self, action must address more local challenges.
and that is us:
individuals, Business should view world change as an invitation to innovation: every change is
people, citizens.” an opportunity to develop sustainable new products, designs and processes. The
marketplace will need to begin to consider not just profit, but moral, spiritual, individual,
organizational and environmental concerns. Competition will come from everywhere,
and businesses will have to adapt and articulate a vision that includes everyone, making
a habit of taking the long view and projecting the implications of their actions.

About The Author

Eamonn Kelly is CEO of Global Business Network (GBN), and co-author of What’s Next?
Exploring the New Terrain for Business and The Future of the Knowledge Economy.
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