CLASS –XII MATHEMATICS NCERT SOLUTIONS

Probability
Exercise 13.3
Questions
Answers

1. Case (i) : S1 = {5 red balls, 5 black balls} ⇒ n ( S1 ) = 10

Let us draw a red balls first, i.e., A1 = {5 red balls} ⇒ n ( A1 ) = 5
n ( A1 ) 5 1
P (A1) = = =
n ( S1 ) 10 2
Now after adding 2 balls of the same colour, i.e.,
S2 = {7 red balls, 5 black balls} ⇒ n ( S2 ) = 12
Let us draw a red balls first, i.e., A2 = {7 red balls} ⇒ n ( A2 ) = 7
n ( A2 ) 7
P (A2) = =
n ( S2 ) 12
1 7 7
∴ P (a red ball is drawn) = × =
2 12 24
Case (ii) : When a black ball is drawn, i.e., A2 = {5 red balls} ⇒ n ( A2 ) = 5
n ( A2 ) 5
P (A1) = =
n ( S1 ) 12
Now after adding 2 balls of the same colour, i.e.,
S2 = {5 red balls, 7 black balls} ⇒ n ( S2 ) = 12
Let us draw a red balls first, i.e., A2 = {5 red balls} ⇒ n ( A2 ) = 5
n ( A2 ) 5
P (A2) = =
n ( S2 ) 12
1 5 5
∵ P (a red ball is drawn) = × =
2 12 24
7 5 12 1
Therefore, required probability in both cases = + = =
24 24 24 2
2. Let A be the event hat ball drawn is red and let E1 and E2 be the events that the ball drawn is
from the first bag and second bag respectively.
1 1
P (E1) = , P (E2) = ,
2 2
P ( A E1 ) = P (drawing a red ball from bag I) = =
4 1
8 2
P ( A E 2 ) = P (drawing a red ball from bag II) = =
2 1
8 4

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 Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 )
P ( E1 A ) = P (red ball drawn from bag I) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 )
1 1 1
×
2 2 1 8 2
= = 4 = × =
1 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 3
× + × +
2 2 2 4 4 8
3. Let E1 = the examinee knows the answer, E2 = the examinee guesses the answer and
60 40
A = student who attain grade A, P (E1) = , P (E2) = ,
100 100
P ( A E1 ) = , P ( A E2 ) =
30 20
100 100
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
60 30
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) ×
P ( E1 A ) = 100 100 1800 1800 9
= = = =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) 60 30 40 20 1800 + 800 2600 13
× + ×
100 100 100 100
4. Let E1 = students residing in the hostel, E2 = day scholars (not residing in the hostel) and
A = the examinee answers correctly
3 1
Now P (E1) = , P (E2) = ,
4 4
Since E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events and exhaustive events, and if E2 has already
occurred, then the examinee guesses, therefore the probability that he answers correctly given
that he has made a guess is i.e., P ( A E 2 ) =
1 1
4 4
And P ( A E1 ) = P (answers correctly given that he knew the answer) = 1
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
3 3 3
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) ×1
P ( E1 A ) = 4 12
= = 4 = 4 =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) 3 1 1 3 1 13 13
×1 + × +
4 4 4 4 16 16
5. Let E1 = The person selected is suffering from certain disease, E2 = The person selected is not
suffering from certain disease and A = The doctor diagnoses correctly
1 1 999
Now P (E1) = 0.1% = = 0.001, P (E2) = 1 − = = 0.999 ,
1000 1000 1000
P ( A E1 ) = 99% = = 0.99 P ( A E 2 ) = 0.005%
99
100
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) 0.01× 0.99
P ( E1 A ) =
990 22
= = =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) .001× 0.99 + 0.999 × 0.005 990 + 4995 133

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6. Let E1 = a two headed coin, E2 = a biased coin, E3 = an unbiased coin and A = A head is shown
1 1 1
Now P (E1) = , P (E2) = , P (E3) =
3 3 3
P ( A E1 ) = 1, P ( A E 2 ) = = and P ( A E 3 ) =
75 3 1
100 4 2
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 )
P ( E1 A ) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) + P ( E 3 ) P ( A E3 )
1
×1
3 4 4 4
= = = =
1 1 3 1 1 3 1 4+ 3+ 2 9
×1 + × + × 1+ +
3 3 4 3 2 4 2
7. Let E1 = Person chosen is a scooter driver, E2 = Person chosen is a car driver, E3 = Person
chosen is a truck driver and A = Person meets with an accident
Since there are 12000 persons, therefore,
2000 1 4000 1 6000 1
Now P (E1) = = , P (E2) = = , P (E3) = =
12000 6 12000 3 12000 2
It is given that P ( A E1 ) = P (a person meets with an accident, he is a scooter driver) = 0.01

Similarly, P ( A E 2 ) = 0.03 and P ( A E 3 ) = 0.15

To find: P (person meets with an accident that he was a scooter driver)
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem,
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 )
P ( E1 A ) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) + P ( E 3 ) P ( A E3 )
1
× 0.01
6 1 1
= = =
× 0.01 + × 0.03 + × 0.15 1 + 6 + 45 52
1 1 1
6 3 2
60 40
8. Given: P (A) = , P (B) =
100 100
Let D denotes a defective item:
P (D A) = and P ( D B ) =
2 1
∴
10 100
40 1
P ( B) P ( D B) ×
P (B D) = 100 100 40 40 1
= = = =
P ( A ) P ( D A ) + P ( B ) P ( D B) 60
×
2
+
40
×
1 120 + 40 160 4
100 100 100 100

9. Given: P (G1) = 0.6, P (G2) = 0.4

Let P denotes the launching of new product.

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 ∴ P (P।G1) = 0.7, P (P।G2) = 0.3
P (G2 ) P (P G2 ) 0.4 × 0.3
P ( G1 P ) =
12 2
= = =
P ( G1 ) P ( P G1 ) + P ( G 2 ) P ( P G 2 ) 0.6 × 0.7 + 0.4 × 0.3 54 9
10. Let E1 = 5 or 6 appears on a die, E2 = 1, 2, 3 or 4 appears on a die and A = A head appears on the
coin.
2 1 4 2
Now P (E1) = = , P (E2) = =
6 3 6 3
Now P ( A E1 ) Probability of getting a head on tossing a coin three times,
when E1 has already occurs = P (HTT) or P (THT) or P (TTH)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
= × × + × × + × × =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8
P ( A E 2 ) = Probability of getting a head on tossing a coin once,
1
when E2 has already occurred =
2
∴ P (there is exactly one head given that 1, 2, 3 or 4 appears on a die)

P ( E2 ) P ( A E2 )
P ( E2 A ) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 )
2 1 1
×
3 2 24 8
= = 3 = =
1 3 2 1 1 1 3 × 11 11
× + × +
3 8 3 2 8 3
11. Let E1 = the item is manufactured by the operator A, E2 = the item is manufactured by the
operator B, E3 = the item is manufactured by the operator C and A = the item is defective
50 30 20
Now P (E1) = , P (E2) = , P (E3) =
100 100 100
P ( A E1 ) = P (item drawn is manufactured by operator A) =
1
Now
100
P ( A E2 ) = and P ( A E 3 ) =
5 7
Similarly,
100 100
Now Required probability = Probability that the item is manufactured by operator A given that
the item drawn is defective
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 )
P ( E1 A ) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) + P ( E 3 ) P ( A E3 )
50 1
×
100 100 50 5
= = =
50
×
1
+
30
×
5
+
20
×
7 50 + 150 + 40 34
100 100 100 100 100 100

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12. Let E1 = the missing card is a diamond, E2 = the missing card is a spade, E3 = the missing card is
a club, E4 = the missing card is a heart and A = drawing of two heart cards from the remaining
cards.
13 1 13 1 13 1 13 1
Now P (E1) = = , P (E2) = = , P (E3) = = , P (E4) = =
52 4 52 4 52 4 52 4
C (12, 2 )
P ( A E1 ) = P (drawing 2 heart cards given that one diamond card is missing) =
C ( 51, 2 )
C (13, 2 ) C (13, 2 ) C (13, 2 )
Similarly, P ( A E2 ) = , P ( A E3 ) = and P ( A E 4 ) =
C ( 51, 2 ) C ( 51, 2 ) C ( 51, 2 )
By Bayes’ theorem,
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 )
P ( E1 A ) =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) + P ( E3 ) P ( A E3 ) + P ( E 4 ) P ( A E 4 )
1 C (12, 2 )
×
4 C ( 51, 2 )
=
1 C (12, 2 ) 1 C (13, 2 ) 1 C (13, 2 ) 1 C (13, 2 )
× + × + × + ×
4 C ( 51, 2 ) 4 C ( 51, 2 ) 4 C ( 51, 2 ) 4 C ( 51, 2 )
66 11
== =
66 + 78 + 78 + 78 50
13. Let A be the event that the man reports that head occurs in tossing a coin and let E1 be the
event that head occurs and E2 be the event head does not occur.
1 1
P (E1) = , P (E2) =
2 2
P ( A E1 ) = P (A reports that head occurs when head had actually occur red on the coin) =
4
5
P ( A E 2 ) = P (A reports that head occurs when head had not occur red on the coin) = 1 − =
4 1
5 5
By Bayes’ theorem,
1 4
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) ×
P ( E1 A ) = 2 5 4 4
= = =
P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E 2 ) P ( A E 2 ) 1 4 1 1 4 +1 5
× + ×
2 5 2 5
Hence, option (A) is correct.
P ( A ∩ B) P ( A )
14. A ⊂ B ⇒ A ∩ B = A P and P (B) ≠ 0 ⇒ P ( A B) = =
P ( B) P ( B)
Since P (B) ≠ 0
P (A)
∴ <1 ⇒ P (A) < P (B) ⇒ P ( A B ) ≥ P (A)
P ( B)
Hence, option (C) is correct.

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