Analysis of Macro Economy Indicator in Asean Regional Countries To

Mifti Anisa Wulansari, I Wayan Suparta, Arivina Ratih TH
Analysis Of Macro Economy Indicator In Asean Regional Countries To

Middle Income Trap

Middle Income Trap
Abstract:
This study observes how the opportunities of middle income countries located
in ASEAN avoid Middle Income Trap. Human Development Index, Foreign Direct
Investments, Goods and Services Exports, and the Government Effectiveness
Index are regressed to GNI per capita with panel analysis. Secondary data are
used and was published officially by the World Bank and the United Nation
Development Program (UNDP) in 5 ASEAN Regional Countries, namely
Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in the period 2004-
2017. In addition, this study discusses the contribution of the Incremental Capital
Output Ratio (ICOR) coefficient to Gross Domestic Product. The results of the
study state that, there are significant and positive effects between the
independent variables on the dependent variable. Expected that, its important to
give a priority to macro economics as a result of this research. For Advanced
Research, you can use bonus demographic and investment variables in order to
provide forecasting to avoid the Middle Income Trap.
Key word : Middle Income Trap
Introduction Income Trap is a term that make a

ASEAN contributed with a great country cant make them self in
number Economic Growth of higher classification (Aiyar et all,
percentage in the world. 2013). Economic growth with a
Pricewaterhousecooper in 2017 as standard needed to avoid it
a Prominent Economics Research (Bruecnerr et al, 2017). According to
Institution released that Indonesia, research conducted by Felipe
Thailand, Filipina, Malaysia, (2012), the 14-year threshold is the
Vietnam with others 27 countries maximum number of years for
are contributed to 85 percent of countries with upper middle income
economic growth in the world for countries income classifications to
2016 to 2050. In 2050 it predicted rise to high income countries and 28
that Indonesia in the 4th rank in the years is the maximum limit for
world, Phillipines in 19th rank, countries with lower middle income
Vietnamin 20th rank, , Malaysia in country classifications. to upper
24th rank and Thailand in 25th middle income countries. As one
rank. As a phenomena, Middle indicator in macroeconomic Gross
JEP-Vol. 8, N0 3, Nopember 2019 | 267

Middle Income Trap
National Income (GNI) per capita is Product (GDP) decomposition raises

used to measure the prosperity of a consumption, investment,
country. The value of Gross National government expenditure, net
Income is influenced by Gross exports, and inventory investment,
Domestic Product (GDP). Gross GDP data is assumed to be total
National Income is the total income demand for goods, so it can be
of domestic and foreign citizens formulated using the following
claimed by residents and consists of formula:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) plus
the factor of income received by Z : Total Demand of Goods
foreigners, less income earned in the C : Consumption
I : Investation
domestic economy by non-residents G : Government Spending
(Todaro & Smith , 2006). X : Export
IM : Import
The minimum percentage limit of As the theory of economic growth,
economic growth and the minimum the macroeconomic variable in this
time limit is in the classification of study, namely GNI per capita is an
middle income countries being the approach to the total demand for
basis for the importance of goods, where the total demand for
sustainable economic growth. The goods or Gross Domestic Product
formulation of policies related to the (GDP) will contribute to GNI per
selection of macroeconomic capita. GNI represents the power of
variables that get priority scale is production and factors of production,
more related to efforts to increase stated in the equation formula that,
GNI per capita also needed for Net Primary Income (NPI) has a
middle income couuntries to be able contribution in the amount of GNI, as
to avoid the middle income trap. In follows:
addition, an analysis of economic GNI = GDP + NPI
growth on the Incremental Capital Furthermore, the variable Foreign
Output Ratio (ICOR) is also needed Direct Investment (FDI) and Human
to determine the investment and Development Index (HDI) are
capital ratios in the ASEAN regional approaches to investment (I). The
countries to avoid the middle income Government Effectiveness Index
trap. (GEI) is an approach to Government
Blanchard and Johnson (2012) (G). Whereas Goods and Service
state that the Gross Domestic Exports (GSX) are a macroeconomic
| 268 Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

Middle Income Trap
variable approach to Exports (X). So Gross Domestic Investment as a

that it refers to the theory of macroeconomic variable that is
economic growth, it is stated that consists of adding economic fixed
macroeconomic variables FDI, HDI, assets plus a net change in
GEI, and GSX affect the GNI per inventory levels. Fixed assets
capita. including land improvements
As a traditional literature, the (fences, ditches, waterways, etc.);
Harrod-Domar Growth model, in purchase of factories, machinery and
which the rate of output growth is equipment; and construction of
determined by the level of savings roads, railways, and the like,
and ICOR, suggests that ICOR can including schools, offices, hospitals,
be a key variable to link investment private residences, and commercial
requirements with targeted economic and industrial buildings. Inventory is
rates of growth. The results of the an inventory of goods owned by a
study stated that ICOR has a company to meet temporary or
positive effect on GDP per capita. unexpected fluctuations in
ICOR calculation method, is the ratio production or sales, and "work in
between capital and output, Irawan progress." Furthermore, ICOR is
(2010) states that ICOR is obtained by comparing the amount
mathematically the ratio of the of Gross Capital Formation (GCF) to
change between capital increase the addition of GDP (∆GDP), so that:
(investment) to additional output,
with denganK being Investment or
capacity addition and PertumbuhanY The World Bank defines the world
Growth of Output or notated as economy into four groups as low-
follows: income, lower-middle-income, higher

middle-income, and high-income.
The classification is in Gross
Next, the formula approach used National Income (GNI) per capita
for investment variables is Gross which is calculated using the Atlas
Capital Formation (GCF) and GDP method with Unit for this measure is
difference n-1 to n year GDP as a US Dollars.
variable to increase World Bank
GDP using the term Gross Capital
Formation previously known as

Middle Income Trap
Table 1. Income Category based on GNI per Kapita (US dollar)

Income Classification of Country GNI per capita
high income >$12.056
upper middle income $3.896 - $12.055
lower middle income $996 - $3.895
low income < $995
source : World bank (2019)
Salebu (2014) in his research on other words, this index not only
Indonesia in the period 1993-2013 measures a country's economic
also stated that Foreign Direct performance, but also other social
Investment has a positive and dimensions, which at the same time
significant influence on GDP. have an impact on a country's
Similarly what was stated in economic growth (Paoloni and
research in Vietnam by Quoc and Lombardi, 2018).
Thi (2018) and Mills and Zaho The quality of public services, the
(2013) stated that FDI had an quality of civil services and the
influence on GNI. degree of independence from
Blanchard and Johnson (2012) political pressure, the quality of
stated that GDP is the result of the policy formulation and implemen-
sum between consumption, tation, and the credibility of the
investment, government spending, government's commitment to policy
exports after imports. Goods and are some of the indicators in the
Services Export (GSX) can Government Effectiveness Index.
contribute to access to the currency The score given by the Worldwide
of a country carrying out these Governance Indicators (WGI) for the
activities, to further contribute to Government Effectiveness Index is -
increasing the country's income 2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) with the
(Bakari, Mabrouki, 2017). year the study began to be 2003 and
The Human Development Index covers more than 200 countries
(HDI) is used as an indicator to state (Kauffman, Kray, and Mastruzzi,
a country's prosperity, this index 2010). Alam et al (2017) in their
measures income per capita, life research stated that the Government
expectancy, and education level. In Effectiveness Index has a positive

Middle Income Trap
and significant effect on economic 2. Method

growth. This research is a quantitative
Based on the research objectives descriptive study that tests theory
and empirical studies, the through measurement of research
hypotheses proposed to be tested variables with numbers and analyzes
are as follows: data using statistical procedures.
1. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Quantitative analysis is carried out to
has a positive effect on GNI per determine the effect of Human
capita Development Index (HDI), Foreign
2. Goods and Services Export (GSX) Direct Investment (FDI), Goods and
has a positive effect on GNI per Services Export (GSX), and
capita Government Effectiveness Index
3. Human Development Index (HDI) (GEI) on Gross National Income
has a positive effect on GNI per (GNI) per capita. Descriptive
capita analysis is used to illustrate how the
4. Government Effectiveness Index effect of the capital to GDP ratio will
(GEI) has a positive effect on GNI subsequently have an impact on
per capita economic growth and have a
5. Incremental Capital Output Ratio reciprocal effect on Gross National
(ICOR) has a positive effect on Income (GNI) using the ICOR
GDP Growth Method.
Table 2. Input Data Description in FDI, GSX, HDI, dan GEI to GNI per Capita
Variable unit Source of Data
Gross National Income (GNI) Dollar US World Bank
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Dollar US World Bank
Goods and Services Export (GSX) Dollar US World Bank
Human Development Index (HDI) Indeks United Nation
Development Program
(UNDP)
Government Effectiveness Index (GEI) Indeks World Bank
Table 3. Input Data Description ICOR to GDP Grwoth
Variable unit Source of Data

ICOR Indeks World Bank (data diolah)
GDP Growth (∆GDP) Persen World Bank

Middle Income Trap
The econometrics model that will be (GNI) per capita on five middle
used to analyze the effect of the income countries that are in the
Human Development Index (HDI), ASEAN Regional, are semilog
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), (linear-log) regression models that
Goods and Services Export (HTX), refer to Aviliani et al (2014) and
and Government Effectiveness Index Malale et al (2014), namely
(GEI) on Gross National Income
Y = Linier Logaritm of Gross National Income (GNI) (US dollar)

HDI = Human Develompent Index (Index)
FDI = Goods and Services Ekspor (US dollar)
GSX = Foreign Direct Investment (US dollar)
GEI = Government Effectiveness Index (Indeks)
= Slope Coefisien
= intersep coefisien
i = Country i in ASEAN
t = Time Period of Research
= Error term (Dummy)
Meanwhile, to analyze the effect of ICOR on GDP growth using simple panel
data regression, with a reciprocal regression model, so the equation model is as
follows:
Y = ICOR (index)
= GDP Growth (percent)
= Slope Koefisien
= intersep Koefisien
i = Country i in ASEAN
t = Time Period of Research
= Error term (Dummy)
Before the data is processed, a the model that will be used in

classic assumption test is performed research include the following:
which consists of normality, 1. Normality, A residual histogram
multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, is the simplest graphical method
and autocorrelation. Some classic used to determine whether the
assumptions that must be tested in shape of the probability
distribution function (PDF) of a

Middle Income Trap
random variable is in the form of a detect the presence or absence of

normal distribution or not. If the heteroscedasticity problems, the
residual histogram resembles a steps taken are:
normal distribution graph, it can a. Estimating the equation for the
be said that the residual has a next residual is obtained
normal distribution. b. Regress the auxilary equation
2. Multicolonierity, According to c. The null hypothesis in this test
Widarjono (2005) multicollinearity is there is no heterokes
assumption test is conducted to capacity. The White test is
ensure the model is free from based on the number of
multicollinearity problems, the samples (n) multiplied by R
existence of a relationship squared which will follow the
between independent variables in chi squares distribution with
one regression is called degrees of freedom as many
multicollinearity. The linear as independent variables not
relationship between the including constants in auxilary
independent variables can occur regression.
in the form of a perfect linear d. If the calculated chi-square
relationship and an imperfect probability (obs * R squared) is
linear relationship. The existence smaller than the chi-square
of multicollinearity still produces table (5%) that the data are
estimators that are BLUE (Best, heteroscedasticity.
Linear, Unlock Estimator), but 4. One test to detect autocorrelation
causes a model to have a large is the Durbin-Watson test. The
variant. Gujarati (2009) states Durbin-Watson (DW) statistical
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is value obtained from the EViews
used as an indicator in 11 program is compared with the
multicollinearity. If the VIF of a DW table values. The model is
variable exceeds 10 as a result of said to be free from
R squared close to 0.90 then the autocorrelation if the Durbin-
variable will be very collinear. VIF Watson statistical value is in the
is defined as: VIF = 1 / (1-R non-autocorrelation area.
squared Determination of the area is
3. Heterokedasticity test, White Test assisted by DL and DU table
is one method that can be used to

Middle Income Trap
values. By using the following

hypothesis:
H0: There is no autocorrelation
3. Result
H1: There is autocorrelation
Figure 1. showed the probability
Fixed Effect Model, This approach is value of the analysis results is
used to improve LSDV where a large greater than the real level of 5% or
cross section unit will not reduce the not significant (0.055102> 0.05) and
degree of freedom. This fixed effect the Jarque value is smaller than the
approach allows different intercepts Chi-square table (5.797149
between individuals but the <9,48733), so it can be concluded
intercepts of each individual do not that the data are normally distributed
vary over time. This approach is
written with the following equation:
12
Series: Standardized Residuals
10 Sampl e 2004 2017
Obs ervati ons 70
8
Mea n -6.74e-18
Medi an 0.016320
6
Maxi mum 0.145843
Mi ni mum -0.245721
4
Std. Dev. 0.087246
Skewnes s -0.703969
2
Kurtos i s 2.927156
0
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Jarque-Bera 5.797149
Probabi l i ty 0.055102
Figure 1. Histogram Graphic, Normality Test
In Table 5. it can be seen that there on the Centered VIF for the four
is no problem of multicollinearity. independent variables of less than
This can be seen from the VIF value 10.
Table 5. Multicolonieratity Test

Variabel R Squared VIF
X1 (HDI) 0.890422 9.125919
X2 (FDI) 0.402876 1.674694
X3 (GSX) 0.747208 3.955821
X4 (GEI) 0.818029 5.495381

Middle Income Trap
Table 6. Result of Heteroskedasticity Test

Variabel Probabilitas
X1 (HDI) 0.4707
X2 (FDI) 0.9837
X3 (GSX) 0.3103
X4 (GEI) 0.8508
d=2.025511
0 dl du 2 4-du 4-dl
(1.4943) (1.7351) (2.2649) (2.5057)
Figure 2. Durbin Watson Statistic (non autokorelasi)
For heterokedasticity Test, the Based on the test model that has
overall value of the Independent been done as well as from the
Variable probability is greater than comparison of the best values, the
0.05, it can be ascertained that there panel data regression model used is
is no heteroscedasticity problem in the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). In
the study sample previous tests the model has passed
In autocorrelation Test, there is the classic assumption test so that
found that the sample gate an the results obtained after the
positive autocorellation, then white estimation are consistent and
test is used to solve. The result cannot. The following table shows
show w value as in Figure 2. is the results of the estimated data with
2.025511 These results indicate the number of observations of the
there is no autocorrelation, which Five Countries in the ASEAN Region
means the positive autocorrelation during the period 2004-2017 (14
problem has been successfully years).
cured.

Middle Income Trap
Table 7. Fixed Effect Model (FEM) Result

C Coefficient t-Statistik Probability
Konstanta (C) -0.0863 -0.1506 0.8808
HDI (X1) 11.1129 12.3406 0.0000
FDI (X2) 1.0389 3.5438 0.0008
GSX (X3) 1.2233 2.6996 0.0090
GEI (X4) 0.3877 3.9528 0.0002
R-squared 0.9861 - -
F-Statistik 539.678 - 0.0000
Sumber : Data diolah, 2019
From the regression results in Table 7., it can be concluded that overall the
results of the panel data regression equation are as follow
Y = ln Gross National Income (GNI) (dollar)

HDI = Human Development Index (Indeks)
FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (US dollar)
GSX = Goods and Services Ekspor (US dollar)
GEI = Government Effectiveness Index (Indeks)
= Slope Coefficient
= Intercept Coefficient
i = Country in i di ASEAN
t = Period of Research
= Erorr Term
-0.0863 1.0389 1.2233 0.3877
a. A constant of -0.0863 can be b. The regression coefficient of

interpreted that if all the variable X1 (Human Development
independent variables (Human Index) of 11.1129 can be
Development Index of Foreign interpreted that when the Human
Direct Investment Goods and Development Index rises by 1
Services Exports and basic point index, the Gross
Government Effectiveness Index) National Income of Five Countries
are considered constant or in the ASEAN Region has
unchanged, the Gross National increased by 11.1129 dollars
Income of the Five Countries in assuming the other independent
the ASEAN Regional will variables remain.
decrease by 0.0863 c. The regression coefficient of
variable X2 (Foreign Direct

Middle Income Trap
Investment) of 1.0389 can be and X4 (Foreign Direct Investment

interpreted that when Foreign Human Development Export Goods
Direct Investment rises by 1 basic and Services Index and Government
point index, the Gross National Effectiveness Index together have a
Income of Five Countries in the contributing effect on Y (Gross
ASEAN Regional has increased National Income per Capita) of
by 1.0389 dollars assuming the 0.9851 or 98.51 percent and the
other independent variables remaining 1.49 percent is influenced
remain. other factors not examined.
d. The regression coefficient of The Result of F-Statistic Test
variable X3 (Exported Goods and Foreign Direct Investment, Goods
Services) of 1.2233 can be and Services Export variables and
interpreted that when Exported the Government Effectiveness Index
Goods and Services rises by 1 together have a positive and
dollar the Gross National Income significant effect on the Human
of the Five Countries in the Development Index. While the
ASEAN Regional has increased Human Development Index has a
by 1.2233 dollars assuming the negative and significant effect on
other independent variables GNI per capita in the ASEAN region,
remain. Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia,
e. The regression coefficient of Thailand, and Vietnam.
variable X4 (Government Vietnam, has the smallest
Effectiveness Index) of 0.3877 individual effect value, which is -
can be interpreted that when the 0.3277, It shows that the variables of
Government Effectiveness Index the Human Development Index,
x rises by 1 basic point index, the Foreign Direct Investment, Export
Gross National Income of Five Goods and Services, and
Countries in the ASEAN Regional Government Effectiveness Index
has increased by 0.3877 dollars have the smallest effect to increase
assuming the other independent the Gross National Income per
variables remain constant. capita compared to Thailand,
For Adjusted R2 It can be followed, Malaysia, Thailand,
seen that the variables X1 X2 X3 Indonesia and finally the Philippines.

Middle Income Trap
Table 8. Interpretation Result of Individual Fixed Effect

Variable Coefficient
C -0.0863
HDI 11.1129
FDI 1.0389
GSX 1.2233
GEI 0.3877
Country Effect Individual Effect
Indonesia 0.2301 0.1438
Filipina 0.2755 0.1892
Malaysia -0.0236 -0.1099
Thailand -0.0332 -0.1195
Vietnam -0.2364 -0.3227
Table 9. Regression Result of GDP Growth to Icor

C Coefficient t-Statistic Probability
Constanta (C) 7.002549 13.26152 0.0000
X_Icor -9.070307 -3.505237 0.0008
R-squared 0.353198 - -
F-Statistik 6.989683 - -
Simple regression between GDP quality, through diversification or

and ICOR growth using the technology enhancement, is a good
reciprocal function model, the Fixed enough effort to increase the value
Effect Model (FEM), where GDP (Y) of exports of goods and services as
and ICOR (X = 1 / x) shows well as tax policies that favor the
significant results with probability importing country. Security
values as table 4.10 shows the conditions and a good business
number 0.0008 and the value ICOR climate will also provide
coefficient of -9.070307 which opportunities for increased
means inversely proportional to GDP investment. Likewise for increasing
Growth. human capital, through increasing
So that the ASEAN Regional HDI. Skilled workers can certainly
countries in this study can avoid the help in increasing a country's GDP,
Middle Income Trap is expected to so it also has an impact on
prioritize several variables, namely increasing per capita income. The
the Human Development Index of effect of government policy is clearly
Foreign Direct Investment Goods seen in the economic conditions of a
and Services Export and the country, Malaysia is in the shadow of
Government Effectiveness Index Middle income Trap with
through the participation of the Bumiputera's policies in its economy
Government. Improving product since 2010, which actually makes

Middle Income Trap
Malaysia stagnate in GNI per capita Economics Bulletin. Volume

37 Issue 1. pages 222-227.
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Antwi Samuel, Mills et.all. 2013.
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Key word : Middle Income Trap

Introduction Income Trap is a term that make a

JEP-Vol. 8, N0 3, Nopember 2019 | 267

National Income (GNI) per capita is Product (GDP) decomposition raises

| 268 Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

variable approach to Exports (X). So Gross Domestic Investment as a

Growth of Output or notated as economy into four groups as low-

follows: income, lower-middle-income, higher

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Table 1. Income Category based on GNI per Kapita (US dollar)

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and significant effect on economic 2. Method

Table 3. Input Data Description ICOR to GDP Grwoth

Variable unit Source of Data

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Y = Linier Logaritm of Gross National Income (GNI) (US dollar)

Before the data is processed, a the model that will be used in

| 272 Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

random variable is in the form of a detect the presence or absence of

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values. By using the following

Figure 1. Histogram Graphic, Normality Test

Table 5. Multicolonieratity Test

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Table 6. Result of Heteroskedasticity Test

Figure 2. Durbin Watson Statistic (non autokorelasi)

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Table 7. Fixed Effect Model (FEM) Result

Y = ln Gross National Income (GNI) (dollar)

-0.0863 1.0389 1.2233 0.3877

a. A constant of -0.0863 can be b. The regression coefficient of

| 276 Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

Investment) of 1.0389 can be and X4 (Foreign Direct Investment

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Table 8. Interpretation Result of Individual Fixed Effect

Table 9. Regression Result of GDP Growth to Icor

Simple regression between GDP quality, through diversification or

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Malaysia stagnate in GNI per capita Economics Bulletin. Volume

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University Of Tunis El Manar 27100 Pavia.

| 280 Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

http://www.lse.ac.uk/internati of Regions, Economy and

JEP-Vol. 8, N0 3, Nopember 2019 | 281

Sage. Volume 7 Nomor 2, 2014,

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Ekonomi dan Keuangan https://doi.org/10.1007/978-

JEP-Vol. 8, N0 3, Nopember 2019 | 283

korea. International Spatial Growth. Washington,

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