UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Table of Contents
CHAPTER 3.....................................................................................................3

I. Data Visualization....................................................................................4

II. Descriptive Statistics..............................................................................9

TABLE 2.1.................................................................................................9

TABLE 2.2...............................................................................................11

TABLE 2.3...............................................................................................13

III. Analysis of variance.............................................................................14

TABLE 3.1...............................................................................................15

TABLE 3.2...............................................................................................16

TABLE 3.3...............................................................................................16

IV. Correlation............................................................................................18

TABLE 4.1...............................................................................................18

TABLE 4.2...............................................................................................18

FIGURE 4.1..............................................................................................19

TABLE 4.3...............................................................................................19

TABLE 4.4...............................................................................................20

FIGURE 4.2..............................................................................................20

V. Regression..............................................................................................21

5.1 Relationship between Current Account Balances on GDP Growth in

...........................................................................................................21
South East Asian Countries for the year 2020.........................................21

A. SUMMARY OUTPUT............................................................................21

Page 1 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

TABLE 5.1.1............................................................................................21

TABLE 5.1.2............................................................................................22

TABLE 5.1.3............................................................................................23

5.2 Relationship of Merchandise Imports on GDP Growth in South East

...........................................................................................................24
Asian Countries for the year 2020............................................................24

B. SUMMARY OUTPUT............................................................................24

TABLE 5.2.1............................................................................................24

TABLE 5.2.2............................................................................................25

TABLE 5.2.3............................................................................................26

5.3 Relationship of Current Account Balances and Merchandise Imports

...........................................................................................................26
to GDP Growth in South East Asian Countries for the year 2020...........26

C. SUMMARY OUTPUT............................................................................26

TABLE 5.3.1............................................................................................27

TABLE 5.3.2............................................................................................28

TABLE 5.3.3............................................................................................29

Liner Regression........................................................................................30

TABLE 5.4...............................................................................................31

KEY TERMS USED IN THIS CHAPTER.........................................................32

Page 2 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

CHAPTER 3

This chapter includes the presentation, analysis, and interpretation of

Data findings through the use of tabular and graphical presentation.

The table below shows the data for current account balance,
merchandise imports and GDP growth of Counties within the region of South
East Asia in 2020.

X1= the Current account balance, X2 = Merchandise import and Y = GDP

growth.

x1, x2, y, GDP

Current Merchandise Growth
Account Import
Balance
Brunei Darussalam 13.0 13.3 1.5
Cambodia -11.8 12.0 6.8
Indonesia -2.7 6.3 5.2
Lao People's Democratic -10.0 8.0 6.2
Republic
Malaysia 2.4 3.7 4.7
Myanmar -5.0 12.0 6.8
Philippines -2.4 9.0 6.2
Singapore 17.8 5.9 1.2
Thailand 7.0 6.0 3.0
Viet Nam 2.0 10.7 6.8

Page 3 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

I. Data Visualization

In this division illustrate the graphic representation of the data being

studied about the economy of Southeast Asia in 2020. Current Account

Balance will serve as X1, Merchandise Import will be the X2 and GDP Growth

will be the

Y where X1 and X2 will associate in order to manifest the relation on each

other. The objective of this chapter is to make research and data analysis

much easier as it provides an accessible way to see and understand the

patterns in data.

FIGURE 1.1

X1, Current Account Balance

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-5.0

-10.0

-15.0

Page 4 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Figure 1.1: Dependent variable X1 refers to the current account balance

which is the sum of the balance of trade for merchandise, net trade in services

and factor income, and net transfers. The values reported are divided by GDP

at current prices in US dollars. For Cambodia, the Lao PDR, and Viet Nam,

official transfers are excluded from the current account balance.

There are positive and negative result as present in this figure. A positive

current account balance indicates that the nation is a net lender to the rest of

the world, while a negative current account balance indicates that it is a net

borrower. Singapore, 17.8, Brunei Darussalam, 13, Thailand, 7, Malaysia, 2.4

and Viet Nam, 2 have a positive result on their current account balance. These

results pertains that those countries residents have enough fund to purchases

in the country. Residents include the people, businesses, and government.

Funds include their income and savings. While, Philippines, -2.4, Indonesia,

-2.7, Myanmar, -5, Lao People's Democratic Republic, -10 and Cambodia, -11.8

are those countries who got the negative current account balance meaning

their trade measurement says that these countries import more goods,

services, and capital than export.

Page 5 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

FIGURE 1.2

X2, Merchandise Import

14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Figure 1.2: Dependent variable X2 is Growth rates of merchandise

exports and imports (% per year). These tables show the annual growth rates of

exports and imports of goods. Data are in million US dollars, primarily

obtained from the balance-of-payments accounts of each economy. Export data

are reported free on board. Import data are reported free on board except for

the following economies, which value them based on cost, insurance, and

freight: Afghanistan; Bhutan; Hong Kong, China; Georgia; India; the Lao PDR;

Myanmar; Singapore; and Thailand.

The figure above have all positive result in their merchandise import.

Brunei Darussalam, 13.3, Cambodia, 12, Indonesia, 6.3, Lao People's

Page 6 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Democratic Republic, 8, Malaysia, 3.7, Myanmar, 12, Philippines, 9, Singapore,

5.9, Thailand, 6 and Viet Nam, 10.7 countries in South East Asian are actively

accepting import products, though it has a positive result as given in this

figure but it would have a negative effect on the value of the domestic currency

or exchange rate on their country.

FIGURE 1.3

Y, GDP Growth
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

The Figure 1.3 show the Independent variable Y the annual growth

rates of GDP valued at constant market price, factor cost, or basic price. GDP

at market price is the aggregation of value added by all resident producers at

producers’ prices including taxes less subsidies on imports plus all

nondeductible value-added or similar taxes. Constant factor cost measures

differ from market price measures in that they exclude taxes on production

Page 7 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

and include subsidies. Basic price valuation is the factor cost plus some taxes

on production, such as those on property and payroll taxes, and less some

subsidies, such as those on labor-related subsidies but not product-related

subsidies. Most countries use constant market price valuation. Pakistan, Fiji,

and Maldives use basic prices. To 2015, Singapore calculated real GDP using

annually reweighted chain volume measures of GDP reference years.

Correspondingly this figure show the Gross Domestic Product in South

East Asian. These are Brunei Darussalam, 1.5, Cambodia, 6.8, Indonesia, 5.2,

Lao People's Democratic Republic, 6.2, Malaysia, 4.7, Myanmar, 6.8,

Philippines, 6.2, Singapore, 1.2, Thailand, 3 and Viet Nam, 6.8. It is clearly see

that these countries are strong, meaning firms hire more workers and can

afford to pay higher salaries and wages, which had an effects and leads to more

spending by consumers on goods and services.

Page 8 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

II. Descriptive Statistics

The analysis of data helps describe, show, and summarize in a

meaningful way. This analysis allows us to make conclusions beyond the data

we have analyzed or reach conclusions regarding the given data.

TABLE 2.1
x1, Current Account Balance
Mean 1.037152061
Standard Error 2.998098701
Median -0.1885
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 9.480820545
Sample Variance 89.8859582
Kurtosis -0.456874698
Skewness 0.0467217201
Range 29.56094639
Minimum -11.76094639
Maximum 17.8
Sum 10.37152061
Count 10

Table 2.1 shows the descriptive statistics of the Current Account Balance

of South East Asian countries for the year 2020.

Page 9 of 35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

The mean value is 1.037152061 indicating that the average current

account balance of South East Asian countries is a surplus because it is

positive which means that 1.037152061 is the value a country needs to

become a net exporter. The Standard error is 2.998098701 which is relatively

small means that there is less spread in the distribution. The median score is

0.1885. This signifies that countries within the region of South East Asia that

have a Current Account balance of less than -0.1885 belongs to the lower 50%

of the distribution. No value occurs repetitively and thus there is no Mode.

The Standard in deviation of 9.480820545 shows that the current

account balance of countries is South East Asia are highly volatile. This means

that the balance of South East Asian countries can change in large amounts in

a short period of time. The Sample variance is 89.8859582 which indicates

that the data points are very spread out from the mean, and from one another.

The value of kurtosis is -0.456874698 which means that the distribution is

platykurtic or flatter as compared with normal distribution. The skewness is

0.0467217201 which means that the data are fairly symmetrical.

The range of the set of data is 29.56094639, this implies that there is a

large interval between the largest and smallest value in the data set. The

minimum or lowest value of the data set is -11.76094639 while the maximum

or highest value is 17.8. The set of data has 10 counts and the sum of all 10

Page 10 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Current account balance data from the countries within the region of South

East Asia is 10.37152061.

TABLE 2.2
x2, Merchandise Imports
Mean 8.696198633
Standard Error 1.018884681
Median 8.5
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 3.221996266
Sample Variance 10.38125994
Kurtosis -1.356509104
Skewness 0.007370483
Range 9.604566609
Minimum 3.728766724
Maximum 13.33333333
Sum 86.96198633
Count 10

Table 2.2 depicts the descriptive statistics of the Merchandise Imports of

Counties within the region of South East Asia for the year 2020.

The mean of the set of data is 8.696198633; this is the average growth

rate of import of goods of countries within the region of South East Asia.

1.018884681 is the Standard error signifying that there is less spread in the

Page 11 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

sampling distribution. The median score is 8.5 and there is no Mode since no

value appears more than once.

The value of Standard deviation is 3.221996266 which is considered to

be low since the mean value is greater. This also means that the data is reliable

because the data are clustered closely around the mean. The sample variance

value of 10.38125994 shows that the data points are close to the mean, and to

each other. The kurtosis is -1.356509104 which indicates that the peak of the

curve of frequency distribution is flatter than that of the normal distribution.

The skewness is 0.007370483 indicating that the data are approximately

symmetric.

The data set has a range of 9.604566609 that shows the there is a

medium gap between the largest and smallest value of the set of data. The

minimum or lowest value is 3.728766724 while the maximum or highest value

is13.33333333. The data set consists of 10 counts and the sum of all 10

Merchandise import data from South East Asian countries is 86.96198633.

Page 12 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

TABLE 2.3
y, GDP Grow th
Mean 4.862558567
Standard Error 0.672750774
Median 5.7
Mode 6.2
Standard Deviation 2.127424743
Sample Variance 4.525936036
Kurtosis -0.830849596
Skewness -0.867761323
Range 5.409052323
Minimum 1.4
Maximum 6.809052323
Sum 48.62558567
Count 10

Table 2.3 presents the descriptive statistics of the Gross domestic product

(GDP) growth of the Countries of South East Asia for the 2020.

The mean value of the distribution is 4.862558567 showing a relatively

high growth rate of the GDP of countries in South East Asia for the year 2020.A

standard error of 0.672750774 indicates relatively less spread in the

distribution. The median score is 5.7 and the value that occurs more than once

or the Mode is 6.2.

A Standard deviation of 2.127424743 is considered to be low for the

distribution since the mean has a greater value and at the same time it is

Page 13 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

deemed to be reliable since the values is close to the mean. The sample

variance is

4.525936036 Which means that the data points are very close to the mean. The

Kurtosis has a value of -0.830849596 indicating a platykurtic type of kurtosis.

The Skewness is -0.867761323 signifying that the distribution is moderately

skewed to the left.

The range is 5.409052323 which means that there is a small gap

between the largest and smallest value of the data set. The minimum and

maximum value of the set of data are 1.4 and 6.809052323 respectively. The

set of data has a count of 10 and the sum of all 10 GDP growth data from the

countries of South

East Asia is 48.62558567.

III. Analysis of variance

The following information used T-test in order to show if there is a

significant difference between X1, Current Account Balance in Y, GDP

Growth and X2, Merchandise Import in Y, GDP Growth.

The T-test is the most commonly used method to evaluate the

differences in means between two groups.

Page 14 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

T-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means

TABLE 3.1
x1, Current Account
Balance y, GDP Growth
Mean 1.037152061 4.862558567
Variance 89.8859582 4.525936036
Observations 10 10
Pearson
Correlation -0.900024718
Hypothesized
Mean Difference 0
df 9
t Stat -1.058057366
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.158799934
t Critical one-tail 1.833112933
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.317599868
t Critical two-tail 2.262157163

Table 3.1 shows the outcome T-test of X1 which is the Current Account

Balance and Y the GDP Growth.

TABLE 3.2
x2, Merchandise y, GDP
Import Growth

Page 15 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Mean 8.696198633 4.862558567

Variance 10.38125994 4.525936036
Observations 10 10
Pearson Correlation 0.230812359
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0
df 9
t Stat 3.537711944
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.003168402
t Critical one-tail 1.833112933
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.006336804
t Critical two-tail 2.262157163

Table 3.2 presents the result using the T-test approach of X2 which is

the Merchandise Import and Y the GDP Growth.

TABLE 3.3
x1, Current Account x2, Merchandise
Test of Significance
Balance and Y, GDP Imports and Y, GDP
t-Stat -1.058057366 3.537711944
Critical Value 2.262 2.262
P-value 0.318 0.006
there is significant
Interpretation no significant difference
difference

Table 3.3 summarizes the result of T-test of X1, Current Account Balance

and Y, GDP and X2, Merchandise Imports and Y, GDP. In this section, to be

able to find out if there is a significant difference between the variables the P

Page 16 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

value must be less than 0.05 and if the P value is greater than 0.05 then there

is no significant difference.

The T statistic score of the X1, Current Account Balance and Y, GDP

pertains to 1.058057366. The smaller T value means that there is no

significantly difference from the both variables. The P-value 0.318 indicates

weak evidence against the null hypothesis which is greater than 0.05 of the

significance level.

Therefore, the null hypothesis failed to reject.

The T statistic score of the X2, Merchandise Imports and Y, GDP is

3.537711944. The greater T statistic value is evident that there is a

significantly difference from the both variables. The P-value is 0.006 which is

less than 0.05 the significance level indicates a strong evidence against the null

hypothesis.

Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected.

Page 17 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

IV. Correlation

Correlation shows whether and how strongly the pairs of variables are

related and significant to each other. This section will discuss on how X1,

Current

Account Balance is significant to Y, GDP Growth and the same with x2,

Merchandise Import in Y, GDP Growth.

X1 = Current Account Balance

X2 = Merchandise Import

Y = GDP Growth

TABLE 4.1
X1 13 -11.8 -2.7 -10 2.4 -5 -2.4 17.8 7 2

Y 1.5 6.8 5.2 6.2 4.7 6.8 6.2 1.4 3.2 6.7

Table 4.1 shows the data of x1 (Current Account Balance) and y (GDP

Growth) of South East Asian countries.

TABLE 4.2
X1 Y
x1, Current
Account Balance 1
y, GDP Growth -0.900024718 1

Page 18 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Table 4.2 presents the correlation between the two sets of data, the result

being -0.900024718 signifies a strong downhill (negative) linear relationship.

This indicates that as the values of X1 increases the Y values tend to decrease.

FIGURE 4.1

X1 < -- > Y
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Figure 4.1 presents a graphical illustration of the correlation between the

two sets of data using scatter graph. As shown in this figure it is clearly seen

that the shifting of the point is downhill showing a negative relationship

between the two set.

TABLE 4.3
X2 13.3 12 6.3 8 3.7 12 9 5.9 6 10.7

Y 1.5 6.8 5.2 6.2 4.7 6.8 6.2 1.4 3.2 6.7

Table 4.3 presents the data values of X2 (Merchandise Imports) and Y

Page 19 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

(GDP Growth) of South East Asian Countries.

TABLE 4.4
X2 Y
x2, Merchandise
Import 1
y, GDP Growth 0.230812359 1

Table 4.4 depicts the correlation between X2 and Y. The correlation of the

two is 0.230812359, this means that X2 and Y have a weak uphill (positive)

linear relationship which indicates that as the X2 values increase the Y values

tend to increase as well.

FIGURE 4.2

X2 < -- > Y
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Figure 4.2 shows the graphical illustration of the correlation between the

two sets of data.

Page 20 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

V. Regression

5.1 Relationship between Current Account Balances on GDP Growth

In South East Asian Countries for the year 2020

A. SUMMARY OUTPUT

Summary output tells how well the calculated linear regression equation
fits the source data.

TABLE 5.1.1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.900024718
R Square 0.810044493
Adjusted R 0.786300055
Square
Standard 0.983459344
Error
Observations 10

Table 5.1.1 describes the regression analysis in which the independent

variables is the Current Account Balances. The dependent variable is the Gross

Domestic Product in the selected South East Asian Countries for the year 2020

The Multiple R is the correlation coefficient which tells how strong the

linear relationship. In this data, the value of 0.900024719 indicates a strong

positive relationship between the data set.

Page 21 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

R squared is the coefficient of determination and it presents how many

points lies on the regression line. The regression output above indicates that

0.810044493 or 81% of variation in the dependent variable, which is the Gross

domestic product, is explained by the independent variable, which is the

Current Account Balance And the remaining 19% of the variation is caused by

factors other than the percentage of Total population.

Adjusted R-Squared is interpreted in the same way as the R squared. The

value of the adjusted R square which is 0.786300055 is ignored in this case

since we are comparing only one x variable to the y variable.

TABLE 5.1.2
ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance
F
Regression 1 32.99588607 32.99588607 34.11512548 0.000386786

Residual 8 7.737538256 0.967192282

Total 9 40.73342432

Table 5.1.2 shows the variability within the regression model. The

Degrees of Freedom 1 and 8 shows the degrees of freedom associated with the

sources of Variance. The Sum of Squares, 32.9959 and 7.7375 indicates that

the model fits the data. The mean square 32.9959 and 0.9672 are considered

Page 22 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

good. The F-test with the value of 34.1151, indicates that the model is nearly

significant. Lastly, the Significance F of 0.0004, simply deters the reliability of

the results as statistically significant.

TABLE 5.1.3
Intercept x1, Current Account
Balance
Coefficients 5.072020521 -0.20195877
Standard Error 0.313057973 0.034577153
t Stat 16.20153761 -5.840815481
P-value 2.11747E-07 0.000386786
Lower 95% 4.350107541 -0.281693827
Upper 95% 5.793933501 -0.122223712
Lower 95.0% 4.350107541 -0.281693827
Upper 95.0% 5.793933501 -0.122223712

Table 5.1.3 Illustrate the Coefficient which gives the least squares

estimate. These coefficients will help to create a linear regression equation to

do a forecast. In this section T test, P value as well as the standard error are

already used and explained in correlation analysis as presented in the previous

chapter. The variable x1 has the slope of the line valued at -2020 indicate a

negative coefficient. A negative coefficient suggests that as the independent

variable increases, the dependent variable tends to decrease. The intercept

coefficient has a score of 5.0120 is the expected mean value of the dependent

variable.

Page 23 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

5.2 Relationship of Merchandise Imports on GDP Growth in South

East Asian Countries for the year 2020

B. SUMMARY OUTPUT

Summary output tells how well the calculated linear regression equation fits
the source data.

TABLE 5.2.1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.230812359
R Square 0.053274345
Adjusted R -
Square 0.065066362
Standard 2.195545997
Error
Observations 10

In Table 5.2.1 illustrate the regression analysis of x2, Merchandise

Imports and the Y Gross Domestic Product in the selected South East Asian

Countries for the year 2020.

The table shows how well the regression equation fits the data. The

following calculations are obtained; first, the Multiple R with the value of

0.2308 is the Correlation Efficient that measures the strength of the linear

relationship between the two variables, since the value is not close to 1, it

indicates that the relation is positively weak. Second, the R Square which is the

sum of the squared deviations of the original data from the mean, with the

Page 24 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

value of 0.0533 or 5.33% that considers the values showing a weak and not

good to fit. Third, the Adjusted R Square, the R square focusing towards the

number of independent variable, achieving the value of 0.0651 indicates that

the values of the independent variable are not good to fit. Subsequently as

same in table 5.1.1 the value of the adjusted R square which is 0.786300055 is

ignored since one x variable to the y variable is being compared.

TABLE 5.2.2
ANOVA

d SS MS F Significance F
f
Regression 1 2.1700465 2.1700465 0.4501776 0.521147401
07 07 83
Residual 8 38.563377 4.8204222
82 27
Total 9 40.733424
32

In this section, Table 5.2.2 display the analysis of the variance of the

data. Where the Significance F indicates the probability that the output could

have been obtained by chance. As found in the table, the significance F

resulted to 0.52 means that there are only 52% chance that the regression

output was a result of mere chance of occurrence.

Page 25 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

TABLE 5.2.3
Intercept x2,
Merchandise
Import
Coefficients 3.537247928 0.152401146
Standard Error 2.093733523 0.227141376
t Stat 1.689445141 0.670952817
P-value 0.129605714 0.521147401
Lower 95% - -
1.290910235 0.371387806
Upper 95% 8.36540609 0.676190099
Lower 95.0% - -
1.290910235 0.371387806
Upper 95.0% 8.36540609 0.676190099

Table 5.2.3 show the least square estimate coefficient of X2 and Y. In this

table same as the previous table, T test, P value and the standard error are

already discuss in correlation analysis and Descriptive analysis as presented in

the previous parts of this chapter. The variable X2 has the slope of the line

valued at 0.1524 which indicates a positive coefficient higher than the X1. The

intercept coefficient score of 3.5372 is the expected mean value of the

dependent variable.

5.3 Relationship of Current Account Balances and Merchandise

Imports to GDP Growth in South East Asian Countries for the year
2020

C. SUMMARY OUTPUT

Page 26 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Summary output tells how well the calculated linear regression equation
fits the source data.

TABLE 5.3.1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.900799327
R Square 0.811439428
Adjusted R 0.757564979
Square
Standard 1.047494821
Error
Observations 10

Table 5.3.1 describes the regression analysis in which the independent

variables are the Current Account Balances and Merchandise Imports. The

dependent variable is the Gross Domestic Product in the selected South East

Asian Countries 2020.

For the regression statistics, the Multiple R is the correlation coefficient

which tells how strong the linear relationship is. In this data, the value of

0.900799327 indicates a weak positive relationship between the data set.

The R squared (r2) is the coefficient of multiple determination for multiple

regression. The regression output above indicates that 0.811439428 or 81% of

variation of the two independent variable in dependent variable. Adjusted R-

Squared is interpreted the same way as the R squared. This is only used when

analyzing multiple regression output or the data have more than one X variable

Page 27 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

and ignored when analyzing simple linear regression output. In this case, the

data has more than one variable indicated that the adjusted R squared of

Current Account Balances and Merchandise Imports to GDP is 0.757564979.

TABLE 5.3.2
ANOVA
df SS MS FSignificance
F
Regression 2 33.05270653 16.52635326 15.0616747 0.002911241
Residual 7 7.680717794 1.097245399
Total 9 40.73342432

Table 5.3.2 present the analysis of the variance of the data. Significance

F indicates the probability that the output could have been obtained by chance.

Based on the data listed in the table above, the significance F of the two

independent variable and dependent variable resulted to 0.0029 meaning that

there is a low possibility that the regression output was a result of mere chance

of occurrence with a percent of .29%.

TABLE 5.3.3
Intercept x1, x2,
Current Merchandise
Account Import

Page 28 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Balance
Coefficients 4.850462 -0.20011 0.025257
Standard 1.029132 0.037718 0.110988
Error
t Stat 4.713157 -5.30525 0.227562
P-value 0.002175 0.001117 0.82649
Lower 95% 2.416951 -0.2893 -0.23719
Upper 95% 7.283973 -0.11092 0.2877
Lower 2.416951 -0.2893 -0.23719
95.0%
Upper 7.283973 -0.11092 0.2877
95.0%

Table 5.3.3 show the least square estimate coefficient of the two

independent variable X1 & X2 and the dependent variable Y. The variable X1

has the slope of the line valued at 0.2001 and for X2, 0.0252, both variable

indicates a weak positive coefficient it signifies that as the value of the

independent variable increases, the mean of the dependent variable also tends

to increase but as presented in the table X1 is higher than X2 indicating the

direction of the relationship between an independent and dependent variable.

The intercept coefficient has a score of 4.8505 is the expected mean value of

the dependent variable.

Liner Regression

Page 29 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Linear regression is used to determine the extent to which there is a linear

relation between a dependent and independent variable. A linear regression is

defined by this equation: y= a + bx

Where:

X1 and X2 = the independent variable.

Y = the dependent variable.

a = the y-intercept or the fixed cost because its value is the point at

which the line crosses the y-axis.

b = the slope of the line or the variable cost since it tells how much

each unit change the independent variable x that changes the dependent

variable y.

TABLE 5.4
Current Account -
Balances on GDP 0.20190899 X1
Growth y= 2 + 5.075830537

Page 30 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

Merchandise Imports 0.150 x 3.5636

and GDP Growth y= 49 + 27
Current Account y = -0.200117252345299 x1 +
Balances and 0.0237518895139176 x2 + 4.87120283371214
Merchandise Imports to
GDP Growth

Table 5.6 presents the linear regression of the two independent variables

to the dependent variable.

The Linear regression attempts to model the relationship between two

variables by fitting a linear equation to observed data. In the table above, the

approach of linear regression between Current Account Balances on GDP

Growth is Y= -0.201908992x1 + 5.075830537. The Merchandise Imports

considered as the explanatory variable and the Gross Domestic Product as

dependent variable which the data shows is Y= -0.15049+ 3.563627.

The approach on these multiple linear regression contains two

explanatory variables which are the Current Account Balances and

Merchandise Imports associated with the value of dependent variable which is

the Gross Domestic Product that has a linear equation of y =

-0.200117252345299 x1 +

0.0237518895139176 x2 + 4.87120283371214.

Page 31 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

KEY TERMS USED IN THIS CHAPTER

• ANOVA: (Analysis of Variance) is a statistical technique that assesses

potential differences in a scale-level dependent variable by a nominal-

level variable having 2 or more categories.

• Correlation: is a statistical technique that can show whether and how

strongly pairs of variables are related.

• Descriptive statistics: are brief descriptive coefficients that summarize

a given data set, which can be either a representation of the entire or a

sample of a population.

• Kurtosis: is a measure of whether the data are heavy-tailed or light-

tailed relative to a normal distribution.

• Linear regression: is a linear approach to modeling the relationship

between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables.

• Maximum variables: This number is the data value that is greater than

or equal to all other values in our set of data.

• Mean: The "average" number; found by adding all data points and

dividing by the number of data points.

• Measures of central tendency: is a single value that describes the way

in which a group of data cluster around a central value.

Page 32 of

35
UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST - CALOOCAN

• Measures of variability: are statistics that describe the amount of

difference and spread in a data set.

• Median: The middle number; found by ordering all data points and

picking out the one in the middle.

• Minimum variables: This number is the data value that is less than or

equal to all other values in our set of data.

• Mode: The most frequent number—that is, the number that occurs the

highest number of times.

• Skewness: is a measure of symmetry, or more precisely, the lack of

symmetry. A distribution, or data set, is symmetric if it looks the same to

the left and right of the center point.

• Standard deviation: is the standard or typical difference between each

data point and the mean.

• T-test: is a type of inferential statistic used to determine if there is a

significant difference between the means of two groups, which may be

related in certain features. A t-test is used as a hypothesis testing tool,

which allows testing of an assumption applicable to a population.

• Variance: is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random

variable from its mean.

Page 33 of

35