chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

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Chemical Engineering Research and Design

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cherd

Analysing gas well production data using a simplified

decline curve analysis method

Alireza Bahadori ∗
Environmental Innovations Research Centre, School of Environmental Science & Management, Southern Cross University, PO Box 157,
Lismore, New South Wales, Australia

a b s t r a c t

Decline curves are one of the most extensively used forms of data analysis employed in evaluating gas reserves and
predicting future production. The parameters determined from the classical fit of historical data can be used to predict
future production and the most popular and widely accepted method is Arp’s equation. In the present work, simple-
to-use method, which is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, is formulated
to arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arp’s decline-curve exponent. The
results can be used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of decline in production performance for
gas wells as well as reservoirs. Using this method is quite simple and accurate to generate the coefficients of the
equations instead of opting for ready-generated coefficients with uncertainty. The engineers can easily develop their
own computer program to compute the coefficients and hence obtain the solution for gas reserves and production
performance in reservoirs.
© 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Decline-curve analysis; Arp’s decline-curve exponent; Cumulative gas production; Gas reservoir

1. Introduction ized time for gas reservoirs producing at constant bottom-hole

Estimating reserves and predicting production in reservoirs
has been a challenge for a long time (Khanamiri, 2010). Decline
curve analysis (DCA) is a method to fit observed production
rates of individualwells, group of wells, or reservoirs by a
mathematical function in order to predict the performance
of the future production by extrapolating the fitted decline
function (Khanamiri, 2010).
Many of the existing decline curve analysis models are
heuristic and are based on the equations of Arps (1945)
who proposed that the curvature in the production-rate-
versus-time curve can be expressed mathematically by the
hyperbolic family of equations. Existing decline curve analysis
techniques, include three Arps (1945) models (exponen-
tial, hyperbolic, and harmonic). Fetkovich (1980) introduced
decline curve analysis by type curves. Type curve matching is
essentially a graphical technique for visual matching of pro-
duction data using preplotted curves on a log–log paper.
Fraim and Wattenbarger (1987) introduced a normalized
time function that linearizes the rate decline against normal-
pressures during boundary-dominated flow. The calcula-
tion of the normalized times involves an iterative process
(Khanamiri, 2010).
Palacio and Blasingame (1993) addressed the issue of vari-
able, non-constant bottom-hole pressures in gas wells. They
introduced methods, which use a modified time function
for analyzing the performance of gas wells. They have also
presented a new algorithm along with the modified time
function to compute gas in place, which are capable of mod-
eling the behavior of production data for variable rate and/or
variable pressure drop conditions. Like normalized time, the
calculation of pseudo-equivalent time is an iterative process
(Khanamiri, 2010).
Arps’ models are still the preferred method for forecasting
oil and gas production and proven reserves. These methods
have played a very important role in the exploration and
development of oil and gas fields worldwide (Arps, 1945, 1956;
Fetkovich et al., 1987, 1996; Marhaendrajana and Blasingame,
2001; Pratikno et al., 2003; Li and Horne, 2005, 2007). The main
characteristics of these decline curves can be used to select

∗
Tel.: +61 2 6621 2669.
E-mail addresses: Bahadori.alireza@gmail.com, al.bahadori@gmail.com
Received 28 May 2011; Received in revised form 7 August 2011; Accepted 12 August 2011
0263-8762/$ – see front matter © 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cherd.2011.08.014
542 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547
Nomenclature
A empirical parameter
B empirical parameter
b Arps’ decline-curve exponent.
C empirical parameter
D empirical parameter
Di nominal (initial) decline rate, 1/unit time.
Gp (t) cumulative gas production at time t, MMscf
i index
j index
m matrix row index for m × n matrix
n matrix column index for m × n matrix
P polynomial
qi initial gas flow rate at time t = 0, MMscf/unit
time
qt gas flow rate at time t, MMscf/unit time
t time, unit time
u coefficient of polynomial
V Vandermonde matrix
˛ matrix element
Unit conversion to SI
1 MMScf 28,317 Standard m3
the flow-rate decline model that is appropriate for describing
the rate–time relationship of the hydrocarbon system (Ahmed,
2006). It need to be emphasized that the Arp’s method is still
being used because of its simplicity and since it is an empiri-
cal method, it does not need any reservoir or well parameters,
however using Arps’ equations, the parameters of hyperbolic
equation cannot be calculated directly. In that case, using
non-linear type curves or using ready-generated coefficients
with uncertainty is necessary. In view of the above mentioned
issues, an attempt has been made in the present work to
develop a simple-to-use method, which is easier than exist-
ing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, to
arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline
rate, and the Arps’ decline-curve exponent. The results can be
used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of
decline in production performance (rate versus time and rate
versus cumulative production plots), for gas wells as well as
reservoirs.
2. Conventional decline-curve analysis
methods
Nearly all conventional decline-curve analysis is based on
empirical relationships of production rate versus time, given
by Arps (1945) as follows:
qi
qt = (1)
1/b
(1 + bDi t)
where qt is the gas flow rate at time t, MMscf/day; qi is the ini-
tial gas flow rate, MMscf/day; t is the time, days; Di is the initial
decline rate, 1/day; and b is the Arps’ decline-curve exponent.
It can be extremely difficult to determine when a gas well
has defined its drainage area and thus to identify the start
of pseudo-steady-state flow condition. The area under the
decline curve of qt gas flow rate at time t versus time between
the times t1 and t2 is a measure of the cumulative gas pro-
duction during this period. Dealing with gas reservoirs, the
cumulative gas production, Gp , can be expressed mathemati-
cally (Ahmed, 2006):
 t2
Gp = qt dt (2)
t1
Replacing the flow rate, qt , in the above equation with the
three individual expressions that describe types of decline
curves (Eqs. (3)–(5)), and integrating gives the following (Arps,
1945):
Exponential b = 0:
(qi − qt )
Gp(t) = (3)
Di
Hyperbolic 0 < b < 1:
 qi
  q 1−b 
t
Gp(t) = 1− (4)
Di (1 − b) qi
Harmonic b = 1:
q  q 
i i
Gp(t) = ln (5)
Di qt
Since estimating reserves and predicting production in
reservoirs has been a challenge for a long time many efforts
have been put into the research during the past few decades
which takes into account initial production rate, initial decline
rate and the Arps’ decline-curve exponent, “b”. The decline
curves are characterized by three factors including initial pro-
duction rate or the rate at some particular time, curvature
of the decline and rate of decline. These factors are a com-
plex function of numerous parameters within the reservoir,
wellbore, and surface-handling facilities.
The following three conditions must be considered in
production-decline-curve analysis:
1. Certain conditions must prevail before we can analyse a
production decline curve with any degree of reliability.
These indicate that the well must have been produced at
capacity under a given set of conditions. The production
decline observed should truly reflect reservoir productiv-
ity and not be the result of an external cause, such as a
change in production conditions, well damage, production
controls, or equipment failure (Ahmed, 2006).
2. Stable reservoir conditions must also prevail in order to
extrapolate decline curves with any degree of reliability.
This condition will normally be met as long as the produc-
ing mechanism is not altered. However, when an action is
taken to improve the recovery of gas, such as infill drilling,
fluid injection, fracturing, or acidizing, decline-curve anal-
ysis can be used to estimate the performance of the well
or reservoir in the absence of the change and compare it to
the actual performance with the change (Ahmed, 2006).
3. Production-decline-curve analysis is used in the evaluation
of new investments and the audit of previous expenditures.
Associated with this is the sizing of equipment and facil-
ities such as pipelines, plants, and treating facilities. Also
associated with the economic analysis is the determination
of reserves for a well, lease, or field. This is an indepen-
dent method of reserve estimation, the result of which can
be compared to volumetric or material-balance estimates
(Ahmed, 2006).
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547 543

3. Development of simple equations for Table 1 – Tuned coefficients used in Eqs. (12)–(15).
estimation of nominal decline rate and the
Symbol Value
Arps’ decline-curve exponent
A1 2.118598622 × 10−1
The Vandermonde matrix using matlab (2008) is applied to B1 −1.659365061 × 10−1
C1 −1.538999008 × 10−1
adjust the optimum coefficients of governing equations for
D1 1.333050731 × 10−1
predictive tool. A2 1.935448614
Vandermonde matrix is a matrix with the terms of a geo- B2 −7.0779152676913 × 10−2
metric progression in each row, i.e., an m × n matrix (Horn and C2 2.718233391
Johnson, 1991). D2 −2.033559315
A3 −2.565909086
⎡ ⎤ B3 6.622303513 × 10−1
1 ˛1 ˛21 ... ˛n−1
1 C3 −6.512468358
⎢1 ˛2 ˛22 ... ˛n−1 ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥ D3 4.877667113
⎢1 ⎥ A4 1.419336198
V=⎢
⎢
˛3 ˛23 ... ˛n−1
3 ⎥
⎥ (6) B4 −4.250162509 × 10−1
⎢ .. .. .. .. .. ⎥
⎣. . . . . ⎦ C4 3.946255907
D4 −2.975690047
1 ˛m ˛2m ... ˛n−1
m

or (qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, “b”. To determine the

exponent “b”, enter the correlation with a value of cumula-
Vi,j = ˛i
j−1
(7) tive gas production that corresponds to the last data from the
decline data and the value of the ratio of initial production rate
For all indices i and j, the determinant of a square Vander- to last production rate data on the given decline data (qi /q).
monde matrix (where m = n) can be expressed as (Horn and The exponent “b” is calculated by the first developed corre-
Johnson, 1991): lation using of these two values. Then the initial decline rate
multiplied by time (Di t), can be determined from the 2nd corre-
 lation by entering the value of (qi /q) and the value of calculated
det(V) = (˛j − ˛i ) (8)
“b” by first developed correlation. The data from the literature
1≤i<j≤n
(Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006) are incorporated to develop these
predictive tools. The following methodology has been applied
The Vandermonde matrix evaluates a polynomial at a set
to develop these simple tools.
of points; formally, it transforms coefficients of a polynomial
Firstly, the cumulative gas productions [(Gp )/(tqi )] are cor-
a0 + a1 x + a2 x2 + · · · + an−1 xn−1 to the values the polynomial takes
related as a function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow
at the point’s ˛i . The non-vanishing of the Vandermonde deter-
rate ratios (qi /q) for different Arps’ decline-curve exponents,
minant for distinct points ˛i shows that, for distinct points, the
“b”, then, the calculated coefficients for these polynomials are
map from coefficients to values at those points is a one-to-one
correlated as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent b. The
correspondence, and thus that the polynomial interpolation
derived polynomials are applied to calculate new coefficients
problem is solvable with unique solution; this result is called
for Eq. (11) to predict, the cumulative gas productions. Table 1
the unisolvence theorem (Fulton and Harris, 1991). They are
shows the tuned coefficients for Eqs. (12)–(15) for the initial
thus useful in polynomial interpolation, since solving the
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) according to
system of linear equations Vu = y for u with V an m × n Van-
the available data (Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006).
dermonde matrix is equivalent to finding the coefficients uj of
In brief, the following steps are used to tune the correla-
the polynomial(s) (Fulton and Harris, 1991)
tion’s coefficients.


n−1
P (x) = uj xj (9) 1. Correlate the cumulative gas productions as a function of
j=0
total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) for a given Arps’ decline-
curve exponents, b.
of degree ≤n − 1 which has (have) the property: 2. Repeat step 1 for other Arps’ decline-curve exponents, b
values.
P (˛i ) = yi for i = 1, . . . , m (10) 3. Correlate corresponding polynomial coefficients, which are
obtained in previous steps as a function of Arps’ decline-
The Vandermonde matrix can easily be inverted in terms curve exponents, values (b), ˛ = f(b), ˇ = f(b),  = f(b),  = f(b)
of Lagrange basis polynomials: each column is the coefficients [see Eqs. (12)–(15)].
of the Lagrange basis polynomial, with terms in increasing
order going down. The resulting solution to the interpolation So, equation represents the proposed governing equation
problem is called the Lagrange polynomial (Fulton and Harris, in which four coefficients are used to correlate the cumu-
1991). lative gas productions as a function of initial gas flow rate
In this work, firstly the initial gas flow rate over total gas over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) for different Arps’ decline-
flow rate ratios (qi /q) is estimated in terms of cumulative gas curve exponents, b, where the relevant coefficients have been
production [(Gp )/(tqi )] and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, b, reported in Table 1.
with an upper limit for [(Gp )/(tqi )] of 100. Secondly, nominal q  ˇ  
i
(initial) decline rate, multiplied by time (Di t) is predicted as a =˛+ + 2
+ 3
(11)
q (Gp /tqi ) (Gp /tqi ) (Gp /tqi )
function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios
544 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

where
Table 2 – Tuned coefficients used in Eqs. (17)–(20).
Symbol For (qi /q) values For (qi /q) values
˛ = A1 + B1 b + C1 b2 + D1 b3 (12)
less than 20 more than 20

ˇ = A2 + B2 b + C2 b2 + D2 b3 (13) A1 −5.222598165 × 10−1 2.276792651

B1 −1.081028646 −3.915302290
C1 2.366497869 1.2827542827 × 101
 = A3 + B3 b + C3 b2 + D3 b3 (14)
D1 −1.731914040 −1.208374958 × 101
A2 6.759393426 × 10−1 3.482956857 × 10−2
 = A4 + B4 b + C4 b2 + D4 b3 (15) B2 3.306081003 × 10−1 7.921307158 × 10−1
C2 −1.851326609 × 10−1 −1.519770493
These optimum tuned coefficients (A–D) help to cover the D2 1.4518749363 × 10−1 1.765447655
A3 −5.495393636 × 10−2 1.67559713 × 10−5
data reported in the literature for Arps’ decline-curve expo-
B3 2.070275292 × 10−2 −1.4525487139 × 10−2
nents, (b) between 0 and 1 and total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q)
C3 −2.696793918 × 10−2 3.443677534 × 10−2
values up to 100 based on data from Gentry (1972) and Ahmed D3 6.623839988 × 10−2 −2.359635314 × 10−2
(2006). The above mentioned methodology is applied to pre- A4 1.495913209 × 10−3 −1.627581173 × 10−7
dict nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (Di t) as a B4 −9.498763746 × 10−4 7.376847338 × 10−5
function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios C4 1.063433489 × 10−3 −2.008233068 × 10−4
(qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, b (see Eqs. (16)–(20)): D4 −1.779760977 × 10−3 1.424991955 × 10−4

 ϕ 
(Di t) = ε + + 2
+ 3
(16) ratios (qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponents (b), in compar-
(qi /q) (qi /q) (qi /q) ison with literature reported data (Gentry, 1972 and Ahmed,
2006). As can be seen, the results show good agreement with
where
the reported data and the proposed simple-to-use correlation
is accurate, reliable and acceptable. Figs. 2 and 3 show the per-
ε = A1 + B1 b + C1 b2 + D1 b3 (17)
formance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative
gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent
 = A2 + B2 b + C2 b2 + D2 b3 (18) and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate
(qi /q) in two different view points. Figs. 4 and 5 show the per-
ϕ = A3 + B3 b + C3 b2 + D3 b3 (19) formance of proposed predictive tool for the estimation of
nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (Di t) as a func-
 = A4 + B4 b + C4 b2 + D4 b3 (20) tion of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q)
and Arps’ decline-curve exponent (b). In this study, our efforts
These optimum tuned coefficients (A–D) reported in Table 2 directed at formulating a simple-to-use method that can help
help to cover the data from literature for Arps’ decline-curve engineers and researchers immensely. It is expected that our
exponents, b between 0 and 1 and (qi /q) values up to 100 based efforts in this investigation will pave the way for arriving at
on data from Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006). an appropriate production decline-curve analysis which can
be used by petroleum engineers for follow up calculations for
4. Results analysis of past trends of declining production performance,
that is, rate versus time and rate versus cumulative production
Fig. 1 shows the performance of proposed predictive tool for plots, for wells and reservoirs. The predictive tool proposed
the estimation of, cumulative gas productions ((Gp )/(tqi )) as in the present work is simple and unique expression which
a function of the initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate is non-existent in the literature. Typical example given below

1
b=0
0.9
Data
b=0.2
0.8
Data
0.7 b=0.4
Data
(GP2-GP1)/(tqi)

0.6 b=0.6
Data
0.5 b=0.8
Data
0.4 b=1
Data
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
qi/q

Fig. 1 – Prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial gas
flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) in comparison with data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547 545

0.6

(GP2-GP1)/(tqi) 0.5

0.4
b=0
0.3

0.2

0.1 b=1

0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
qi/q

Fig. 2 – Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q).

(qi/q) at any time on decline=4

(GP 2-GP 1)/(tq i)

-1 (qi/q) at any time on decline=100

10

-2 -1 0
10 10 10
Arps’ decline-curve exponent,"b"

Fig. 3 – Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) in another view point.

20

18 b=0
Data
16 b=0.2
Data
14 b=0.4
Data
12 b=0.6
Data
Di.t

10 b=0.8
Data
8
b=1
Data
6

0 0 1
10 10
qi/qt

Fig. 4 – Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) less than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
546 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

90
b=0.1
Data
80 b=0.2
Data
70 b=0.3
Data
60 b=0.4
Data
b=0.5
50 Data
Di.t

b=0.6
40 Data
b=0.7
Data
30
b=0.8
Data
20 b=0.9
Data
10 b=1
Data
0
2
qi/qt 10

Fig. 5 – Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) more than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].

illustrates the simplicity associated with the use of proposed Di t = 1.381159

predictive tool for rapid production decline-curve analysis in Solving for Di gives
gas reservoirs. Di = 1.3811596/4 = 0.3453 year.

4.1. Example Use Eq. (1) to predict the future production performance of
the gas well. Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains
The following production data were reported for a gas well: (Di t) and, therefore, the product must be dimensionless
qi
Date Time, years qt , MMscf/day GP(t) , MMMscf qt =
1/b
(1 + bDi t)

January 1, 1979 0 10 0
10 × 106
July 1, 1979 0.5 8.4 1.67 qt = 1/0.5
= 0.70644 MMscf/day
(1 + 0.5(0.3453)16)
January 1, 1980 1 7.12 3.08
Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains (Di t) and,
July 1, 1980 1.5 6.16 4.3
therefore, the product must be dimensionless, In Eqs. (3) and
January 1, 1981 2 5.36 5.35 (4), the time basis in (qi ) is expressed in days and, therefore,
July 1, 1981 2.5 4.72 6.27 (Di ) must be expressed in (1/day) or day−1
January 1, 1982 3 4.18 7.08  qi
  q 1−b 
t
July 1, 1982 3.5 3.72 7.78 Gp(t) = 1−
Di (1 − b) qi
January 1, 1983 4 3.36 8.44

   1−0.5 
Using the data given recalculate the coefficients b and Di by 10 × 106 0.7304 × 106
Gp(t) = 1−
using proposed predictive tool. Estimate the future production 0.00094(1 − 0.5) 10 × 106
performance for the next 16 years (Ahmed, 2006).
= 15.526 MMMscf
4.2. Solution

Step 1. Calculate b from the first predictive tool as a function The calculated results have good agreement with data
of ratios qi /q and Gp /(t qi ): reported by Ahmed (2006). For this example flow rate after
qi /q = 10/3.36 = 2.98 16 years reported by Ahmed (2006) is 0.6775 MMscf/day and
Gp /(tqi ) = 8440/[(4 × 365) (10)] = 0.58 cumulative gas production after 16 years reported by Ahmed
We assume b = 0.5, then (2006) is 15.02793 MMMscf.
˛ = 1.0707976×10−1 As you know the “b” value is between 0 and 1, so the initial
ˇ = 2.325422471 estimate is easy.
 = −3.2532026
 = 1.8214307 5. Conclusions
Calculated Gp /(tqi ) = 0.58 991.
Calculated Gp /(tqi ) is very close to given Gp /(tqi ) so In the present work, simple-to-use predictive tool, which
assumed “b = 0.5” is correct. is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with
Step 2. Enter with the values of 2.98 and 0.5 to give fewer, is formulated to arrive at an appropriate estimation
ε = −6.876389272110−1 of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arps’ decline-curve
 = 8.131086642710−1 exponent. The results can be used in follow-up calculations
ϕ = −4.30647447110−2 for analysis of past trends of declining production perfor-
 = 1.064363272310−3 mance. The proposed predictive tool is simple-to-use can be of
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547
immense help to petroleum engineers especially those deal-
ing with petroleum engineering and production operations.
Additionally, the level of mathematical formulations with
clear numerical back-ground associated with the proposed
tool can be easily handled by a petroleum engineer without
any in-depth mathematical abilities. Example shown for the
benefit of engineers clearly demonstrates the usefulness of
the proposed tool. Using this method is more appropriate
and more accurate to generate the coefficients of the equa-
tions using least-square regression analysis instead of using
ready-generated coefficients with uncertainty. The engineers
can easily develop their own computer program to compute
the coefficients and hence the solution (i.e. gas reserves and
production performance). In particular, petroleum engineers
would find the proposed approach to be user friendly involv-
ing transparent calculations with no complex expressions for
their applications.
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